交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-11-19原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2512： 1.基本面：欧盟外交与安全政策高级代表Kaja Kallas表示，莫斯科针对欧盟的攻击应被视为恐怖主义。 此番言论发表之际，柴油市场供应趋紧；消息人士称，由于乌克兰无人机周五发动袭击，俄罗斯新罗 西斯克港口的原油装运比原定计划晚了2到3天；欧佩克秘书长阿尔盖斯表示，欧佩克预计2026年不会 出现石油供应过剩，并猛烈抨击媒体对其《月度石油市场报告》的报道失实；中性 2.基差：11月18日，阿曼原油现货价为64.70美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为64.16美元/桶，基差 30.76元/桶，现货升水期货；偏多 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 与此同时，尽管欧佩克预计2026年全球原油市场将保持平衡，但分析师们预计，在根据最近一次会议达 成的协议、于明年初短暂暂停后，该组织将继续增加产量。 机构本月早些时候对25名交易员和分析师进行的一项调查显示，他们中的大多数人预计欧佩克将按月继 续增产，只有少数人预计会暂停更长时间，甚至逆转现有的生产政策。 "只有在需求出现明显崩溃、油价跌破50美元，并且欧佩克的领导人清楚地认识到有必要将政策重心转 回市场管理时，他们才可能逆转政策并承诺减产，"纽约咨询公司欧亚集团的高级分析师Greg Brew表 示。 曾在欧佩克秘书处工作、现为咨询公司Rystad Energy AS分析师的Jorge Leon表示，"我认为欧佩克+不会 在2026年减产，欧佩克+已经明确了前进的方向，那就是夺回市场份额。" 阿尔盖斯说："部分媒体对我们的月度市场报告存在歪曲报道，特别是根据我们报告中的一些数据，制 造出了一种关于明年市场将出现过剩的论调。" 事实上，欧佩克在其报告中表示，预计明年石油市场将趋于平衡。然而，这一预测是对早前认为市场将 出现供应短缺的修正，此举引发了石油市 ...

国际能源署13日发布最新月度报告，预测因产油国增产、需求增速减缓因素，今明两年全球石油将继续供大于求，2026年过剩供应量可达日均409万桶。 按照路透社说法，国际能源署这份报告就全球油市供应过剩趋势发出最新警告。日均409万桶相当于全球需求约4%，这比其他机构预测的供应过剩规模大得 多。 报告预测，2025年全球石油供应增速约为日均310万桶，2026年增速为日均250万桶；明年需求增速为日均77万桶，较上月预测数值日均增加7万桶，主要缘 于化工厂需求增加。 报告说，由于全球石油供应加大而需求增长依然较缓，"全球油市供需状况显现进一步失衡迹象"。石油 输出国组织（欧佩克）和俄罗斯等非欧佩克产油国从4月起协同增产，美国和巴西等国也增加产出。 国际能源署数据显示，相比今年年初时，10月全球石油产量日均增加620万桶，欧佩克与非欧佩克国家均摊了增量。欧佩克最大产油国沙特阿拉伯贡献了日 均150万桶增量，非欧佩克产油国中，俄罗斯因西方制裁和能源设施遭袭等原因，仅贡献日均12万桶增量。尽管美国对俄罗斯石油公司和卢克石油公司这两 大俄出口油企的制裁拟于11月21日生效，俄罗斯的石油出口尚未受到显著影响。 报告还显示，全 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite predictions of a global oil supply surplus potentially leading to further price declines, oil traders do not expect OPEC+ to cut production next year [1][2] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Outlook - A survey of 25 brokers and analysts indicates that nearly two-thirds believe OPEC+ will not reduce output next year, with less than one-third expecting any cuts, marking the first such action in over two years [2] - OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia, decided in April to quickly restore previously suspended oil production, surprising the market despite ample supply, aiming to regain market share [2][6] - Only 8 out of 25 respondents in the survey anticipate OPEC+ will limit production next year, with 12 expecting no restrictions unless there is a significant market downturn [6] Group 2: Market Conditions and Price Pressure - Brent crude oil futures have dropped 14% this year to around $64 per barrel, putting financial pressure on OPEC+ members, with some analysts predicting further declines [5][8] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a potential surplus of 4 million barrels per day, a situation not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic, due to weak demand and strong supply from the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana [7] - Energy consulting firms suggest that OPEC+ may need to take action to prevent significant inventory accumulation and price drops [7] Group 3: Strategic Shifts and Future Projections - Analysts believe that OPEC+ is focused on regaining market share rather than cutting production, with expectations that the supply surplus will be smaller than IEA's predictions [8][11] - If OPEC+ can navigate through the weak oil market early next year, they may find themselves in a stronger position by the end of 2026 [8][11] - The shift in strategy may be influenced by geopolitical factors and the need for OPEC+ to adapt to changing market dynamics [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry [3] Core Views - Global oil inventories are expected to continue increasing until 2026, with the EIA forecasting a supply surplus of 1.84 million barrels per day for this year [5][11] - The EIA has raised its price forecasts for crude oil and natural gas for 2025 and 2026, expecting an average crude oil price of $69 per barrel in 2025 and $55 per barrel in 2026 [6][8] - Demand growth for global oil is projected at 790,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 770,000 barrels per day in 2026, with significant contributions from the US, China, and Nigeria [8][45] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Analysis - The EIA and IEA have both adjusted their global oil supply forecasts upwards by 100,000 to 150,000 barrels per day due to OPEC's announced production increases [10][11] - The EIA expects global oil production to rise by 2.81 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.39 million barrels per day in 2026 [10][11] - The IEA anticipates a demand increase of 310,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 250,000 barrels per day in 2026, with a total average supply reaching 108.7 million barrels per day [46][47] Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $64.39 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.19%, while WTI futures rose to $60.09 per barrel, up 0.57% [20] - The number of active oil rigs in the US increased to 549, with a slight week-on-week rise [35] Refining Sector - The report indicates an improvement in refining profitability due to rising product price spreads, despite current levels being relatively low [5][13] - The Singapore refining margin increased to $24.26 per barrel, while the US gasoline-WTI spread decreased to $20.84 per barrel [5] Polyester Sector - The profitability of PTA and polyester filament yarn has improved, with PTA prices rising to 4,585.4 CNY per ton [5][13] - The report suggests a recovery in the polyester sector, with expectations for improved profitability as supply and demand dynamics shift [13] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as top refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [5][13] - It also highlights the resilience of oil companies like PetroChina and CNOOC in the face of potential price declines, recommending those with high dividend yields [13]

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a significant oversupply in the global oil market, with a daily surplus expected to exceed 4 million barrels by 2026, which is about 4% of global demand [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The IEA's report highlights that the global oil market will continue to experience an imbalance between supply and demand due to increased production from oil-exporting countries and a slowdown in demand growth [1]. - OPEC and non-OPEC countries have coordinated to increase production since April, contributing to the rising supply levels [1]. - Global oil supply is projected to grow by an average of 3.1 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026, while demand growth for next year is expected to be 770,000 barrels per day [1]. Group 2: Inventory and Production Changes - As of September, global oil inventories have surged to nearly 8 billion barrels, the highest level since July 2021, primarily due to increased storage from maritime transport [2]. - In October, global oil production increased by an average of 6.2 million barrels per day compared to the beginning of the year, with Saudi Arabia contributing 1.5 million barrels per day to this increase [2]. - Despite sanctions on Russian oil companies, Russia's oil exports have not been significantly impacted, contributing only 120,000 barrels per day to the overall increase [2].

按照路透社说法，国际能源署这份报告就全球油市供应过剩趋势发出最新警告。日均409万桶相当于全 球需求约4%，这比其他机构预测的供应过剩规模大得多。 新华财经北京11月14日电（沈敏） 国际能源署13日发布最新月度报告，预测因产油国增产、需求增速 减缓因素，今明两年全球石油将继续供大于求，2026年过剩供应量可达日均409万桶。 国际能源署数据显示，相比今年年初时，10月全球石油产量日均增加620万桶，欧佩克与非欧佩克国家 均摊了增量。欧佩克最大产油国沙特阿拉伯贡献了日均150万桶增量，非欧佩克产油国中，俄罗斯因西 方制裁和能源设施遭袭等原因，仅贡献日均12万桶增量。尽管美国对俄罗斯石油公司和卢克石油公司这 两大俄出口油企的制裁拟于11月21日生效，俄罗斯的石油出口尚未受到显著影响。 报告还显示，全球石油库存量大幅上升，截至9月已达将近80亿桶，为2021年7月以来最高水平，这主要 与经水路运输的石油储存量剧增有关，且这一趋势还将持续。 欧佩克12日也发布了月度石油市场报告。按照路透社计算，报告预测2026年石油过剩供应量仅为日均2 万桶，比国际能源署预测的数据少得多。 （文章来源：新华社） 报告说，由于全球石 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The global oil market is facing an increasingly imbalanced supply - demand situation, with supply growing and demand growth being mediocre compared to historical standards. The market is expected to remain in a state of oversupply in 2026, and the price of crude oil will be volatile in the short - term [2][8]. - The cancellation of India's domestic certification for 14 chemical imports will bring direct incremental exports for some chemicals, but the exact increase needs further exploration. A refinery accident in South China will lead to a reduction in the supply of aromatics, olefins, and refined oil [3]. - Most energy and chemical products are expected to maintain a volatile and consolidating trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical situations, and policy changes [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Main Logic of Crude Oil - **Market News**: Trump lifted restrictions on oil exploration in the Alaska National Petroleum Reserve. EIA data showed that the US continued to accumulate crude oil inventories last week, and the IEA月报 predicted an increase in the oversupply of global oil in 2026 [8]. - **Main Logic**: The oversupply situation is expected to intensify in 2026. Although the refined oil inventory pressure has eased and the crack spread is strong, providing phased support for the demand side, the supply pressure remains difficult to refute. If Russian oil supply does not decrease, the oil price may return to the oversupply pattern [8]. 3.2 Situation of Other Energy and Chemical Products - **Asphalt**: Shandong's spot prices have stabilized, and the futures price is volatile. The supply tension has been relieved, and the over - valuation premium is starting to decline [10]. - **High - sulfur Fuel Oil**: News of the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict drove the futures price down. The supply in the Asia - Pacific region may decrease, but the demand is still weak [11]. - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The weakening of refined oil led to a decline in low - sulfur fuel oil. It is facing supply increase and demand decline, and its valuation is low, following the trend of crude oil [13]. - **Methanol**: High inventory suppresses the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. It is in a volatile and consolidating state [30]. - **Urea**: Downstream purchases on dips, and the futures price is volatile. It is under high - inventory pressure and coal - cost support [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Although there are more device disturbances and marginal improvement in supply - demand, the oversupply pattern cannot be reversed, and the price will remain in a low - level range [22][24]. - **PX**: India's cancellation of BIS and the speculation of the US - Asia aromatics arbitrage window drove PX to strengthen against cost. It is expected to be volatile and warm in the short - term [16]. - **PTA**: India's cancellation of BIS certification is beneficial to overseas export expectations. The price will follow the cost and be volatile and warm in the short - term [17][18]. - **Short - fiber**: The cancellation of India's BIS certification has limited impact on short - fiber, and the profit is expected to be compressed under passive following [26][27]. - **Bottle - chip**: The price fluctuation has slightly increased, and the trading atmosphere has recovered. It follows the trend of upstream raw materials [28]. - **Propylene**: Downstream trading volume has increased, and PL is volatile [36]. - **PP**: After continuous decline, it has slightly stabilized. Attention should be paid to the change in maintenance [35]. - **Plastic**: The chemical sector has slightly stabilized, and plastic follows the trend [34]. - **PVC**: The cancellation of India's BIS certification may boost sentiment, but the actual export impact is limited. PVC is weakly stable [37]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak expectations, it is in a volatile state [38]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various energy and chemical products have different degrees of change, which reflects the market's expectations for future prices [40]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of different products also show different trends, which can help analyze the relationship between the spot and futures markets [41]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of different energy and chemical products have changed, which is affected by factors such as supply - demand and cost [42].

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Dow Jones dropping nearly 800 points, marking a 1.65% decrease, while the Nasdaq fell by 2.29% [2][3] - Major companies such as Disney and Goldman Sachs led the decline, with Disney's stock dropping over 7% and Goldman Sachs nearly 4% [1][2] Economic Indicators - The market anticipates the release of the October employment report, which will not include unemployment rate data, leading to a drop in the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December from 62.9% to slightly above 49% [4][5] - The government shutdown, which lasted 43 days, has been officially ended, with President Trump signing a temporary funding bill, but the economic impact is expected to be significant, with a projected GDP decline of 1.5% for Q4 [4][5] Company Performance - Disney reported mixed results for Q4, with revenues of $22.46 billion, slightly below market expectations of $22.75 billion, despite a year-over-year revenue decline [9] - Disney's direct-to-consumer segment saw an 8% revenue increase, reaching $6.25 billion, and exceeded subscriber expectations for Disney+ and Hulu [9] Financial Sector - Major banks such as JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup saw declines in their stock prices, with JPMorgan down over 3% and Goldman Sachs nearly 4% [5][6] - Financial institutions are urging the Federal Reserve to take action to address liquidity issues in the short-term financing market [5] Energy Sector - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its forecast for global oil supply surplus for the sixth consecutive month, predicting a surplus of approximately 4 million barrels per day by 2026 [10][11] - Oil prices showed a slight rebound after a significant drop, with WTI crude futures rising about 0.3% [10]

Group 1 - Liquidity pressure is increasing in the $12 trillion financing market, prompting Wall Street to urge the Federal Reserve to take action [4] - Major institutions like Bank of America and Barclays warn that the Fed may need to provide more loans in the short-term financing market or directly purchase securities to inject funds into the banking system [4] - The Fed's gradual adjustment of its balance sheet policy is seen as a response to recent market pressures, with some investors believing that the Fed's actions may be too slow, potentially leading to a shortage of reserves [4] Group 2 - The October employment report in the U.S. is expected to be "discounted," with concerns about the unemployment rate being a persistent mystery [6] - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack emphasizes the need to maintain restrictive rates to continue applying pressure to bring inflation back to target [6] Group 3 - Tesla is reportedly developing a feature to support Apple's CarPlay, a long-requested functionality by customers [8][9] - This marks a significant shift for Tesla and CEO Elon Musk, who has historically resisted adding this popular feature and has criticized Apple [9] Group 4 - Boeing workers in St. Louis voted to accept a five-year contract proposal, ending the company's second-longest strike in history [11] - The accepted terms include a 24% increase in average wages and a $6,000 signing bonus for the 3,200 members of the union [11] Group 5 - The European Union is considering consolidating dollar reserves held by non-U.S. countries to reduce reliance on the Federal Reserve [13] - Discussions are still at the working group level and have not yet reached the European Central Bank's decision-making body [13] Group 6 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its forecast for global oil supply surplus for the sixth consecutive month, predicting a surplus of about 4 million barrels per day by 2026 [15] - The IEA notes that the global oil supply continues to increase while demand growth remains relatively weak [15]