Core Viewpoint - The focus of investors is shifting from the interest rate decision to the guidance on the future tightening path from the Bank of Japan, particularly comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda after the meeting [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The market anticipates the Bank of Japan will raise the overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level in thirty years [1]. - Nomura's analysis suggests that the rate hike decision alone may not catalyze further increases in yields, as the market has already priced in these expectations [1][2]. - There is skepticism regarding whether Ueda will indicate a significantly higher neutral rate than the current market pricing of 1.5% [2]. Group 2: Future Rate Guidance - Analysts believe that if the Bank of Japan fails to convey a faster tightening pace than the market expects, the meeting could be perceived as a "non-event" [1]. - The consensus indicates that the policy rate may reach 1.0% by mid-2026, and any signals of continued rate hikes in 2026 would not surprise the market [2]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Currency Implications - A simple rate hike may not be sufficient to support a stronger yen; Ueda would need to suggest an accelerated pace of rate increases to prevent yen depreciation [3]. - The current average rate hike pace since the end of negative interest rates is approximately every seven months, with market expectations for the next increase to occur by the third quarter of 2026 [3]. Group 4: Fiscal Policy Considerations - While the focus is on the central bank meeting, fiscal policy developments are also important, with key tax reform outlines and preliminary budget proposals expected around December 19 and 26 [4]. - The potential removal of income limits proposed by the Democratic Party for the People could lead to significant tax revenue losses, impacting yields and the yen [5]. - If the initial budget for fiscal year 2026 can be kept below 122.4 trillion yen, it may be viewed positively by the bond market; exceeding 125 trillion yen would have negative implications [5].

日本央行12月货币政策会议在即，市场已将12月加息至0.75%的概率定价至约90%。野村证券认为，12月加息几成定局，关注焦点已转向 央行行长植田和男如何传达未来加息路径，特别是终端利率水平和加息节奏的表态。 12月11日，据追风交易台消息，野村证券在最新研报中称，由于12月无经济展望报告，植田和男对中性利率的表态和未来加息路径的暗 示将成为市场焦点。 该行预计，植田和男将强调"实际利率仍非常低"，这意味着不会发出加息即将结束的鸽派信号。对于中性利率，植田和男可能保持表态 模糊以维持政策灵活性。野村特别强调，如果日本央行删除"根据经济和物价发展的改善情况提高政策利率"措辞，暗示额外加息阻碍降 低。 最新调查显示，九成经济学家预测日本央行将在12月18-19日会议上加息25个基点，且市场已完全消化极为激进的加息路径，2026年9月 前利率料升至1.0%，终端利率预期高达1.5%。 不过，野村认为，即使考虑到经济刺激方案规模扩大和近期日元贬值的影响，本次会议不太可能释放比市场已消化更为鹰派的加息节奏 或更高终端利率信号。该行坚持认为加息至1.0%的时间点应在2027年1月，而非市场定价的2026年9月。 12月加 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trump campaign is accelerating its strategy regarding the Federal Reserve as the election approaches, focusing on potential candidates for the Fed chair position if Trump returns to the White House [2][9]. Group 1: Meeting Details - Scott Bessent, a former Treasury official and current economic advisor to Trump, hosted a private dinner with three former Fed officials to discuss potential successors for the Fed chair [2][3]. - The meeting shifted the discussion of potential Fed candidates from media speculation to a semi-public operation, with Bessent bringing a list of candidates including current Fed Governor Lael Brainard and former economic advisor Larry Kudlow [3]. Group 2: Candidate Perspectives - Lawrence Lindsey emphasized the need for the future Fed chair to establish accountability with Congress regarding inflation targets, suggesting a quantifiable approach to the 2% inflation goal [3][5]. - Kevin Warsh advocated for a strategic silence from the Fed, proposing a shift from forward guidance to data-triggered thresholds, while expressing cautious openness to returning to public office under specific conditions [4][8]. - James Bullard, known for his hawkish stance, proposed raising the long-term inflation target range to 2.5%-3% and suggested establishing a shadow FOMC to help the market digest policy differences [5][8]. Group 3: Candidate Recommendations - Lindsey supports Warsh for the Fed chair position due to his market trust and connections in Congress, while Warsh recommends Bullard for his academic authority and experience [6][7]. - Bullard suggests Lindsey as a candidate, arguing that an old-school hawk could quickly restore the Fed's credibility [7]. Group 4: Implications for the Market - The meeting's outcomes have led to immediate reactions in the market, with hedge fund managers adjusting their forecasts for interest rate cuts in late 2025 and the dollar index rising by 0.4% [9]. - Analysts warn that the meticulous preparation of Fed personnel by the Trump campaign could undermine the central bank's independence, making it a daily risk factor for traders [9]. Group 5: Next Steps - Bessent requested the three former officials to submit a joint memo by October 1, outlining an expanded candidate list, policy framework options, and key points for congressional hearings [8].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs economists suggest that the Federal Reserve may lower policy interest rates in September, three months earlier than previously predicted [1][2] Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its rate cut forecast, indicating that the impact of tariff policies this year is slightly less than expected, while other deflationary forces are stronger [1] - Mericle estimates that the likelihood of a rate cut in September is "slightly above" 50%, with expected cuts of 25 basis points in September, October, and December, and further cuts in March and June 2026 [2][5] - The terminal rate forecast has been revised down to 3-3.25% from a previous estimate of 3.5-3.75% [2][4] Group 2: Inflation and Employment Outlook - Some Federal Reserve officials have hinted that if upcoming inflation data is not too high, they may support a rate cut in September [5] - Evidence suggests that the transmission effect of tariffs on consumer prices is lower than previously expected, with inflation expectations indicators showing a decline [5] - There are signs that anti-inflation factors are at play, including slowing wage growth and a decline in job vacancies, which may influence the Fed's decision on rate cuts [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, highlighted significant uncertainty regarding the level of terminal interest rates [1] Group 1 - The Bank of England is facing challenges in determining the future trajectory of interest rates due to various economic factors [1] - Bailey emphasized that the current economic environment is complex, making it difficult to predict the ultimate peak of interest rates [1] - The uncertainty surrounding terminal rates could impact monetary policy decisions moving forward [1]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) retains the policy space to initiate interest rate cuts within the next six months, as stated by François Villeroy de Galhau, a member of the ECB Governing Council [1] - Current market assessments indicate that inflation expectations remain moderate, which could justify further easing of monetary conditions in the next six monetary policy cycles if this trend continues [1] - The significant appreciation of the euro against major currencies has provided a hedging effect against rising international oil prices [1] Group 2 - Villeroy distinguishes between neutral interest rates and terminal rates, explaining that while they may converge under certain conditions, they serve different functions within the policy framework [1] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is identified as a new major uncertainty, with potential for dual-directional volatility [1] - The ECB is closely monitoring international oil price trends, but emphasizes that oil price fluctuations alone are insufficient to trigger policy responses unless they affect core inflation and inflation expectations [1] Group 3 - Regarding potential changes in US-EU trade relations, Villeroy assesses that a substantial escalation in trade tensions could exert downward pressure on eurozone economic growth through suppressed cross-border trade channels [2] - However, this impact is not expected to directly translate into upward inflationary pressures, consistent with previous ECB research on the transmission mechanism of imported inflation [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan should not pre-set a terminal interest rate during the rate hike process according to committee member Akira Noguchi [1] Group 1 - Akira Noguchi emphasizes the importance of flexibility in the Bank of Japan's approach to interest rate adjustments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan should not pre-set a terminal interest rate during the interest rate hike process [1] Group 1 - The statement emphasizes the importance of flexibility in monetary policy as the Bank of Japan navigates interest rate adjustments [1] - It suggests that setting a predetermined terminal rate could limit the central bank's ability to respond to changing economic conditions [1] - The commentary reflects ongoing discussions about the appropriate approach to interest rate management in Japan's economic context [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is nearing the terminal interest rate and does not see an urgent need to cut rates if the baseline scenario remains unchanged [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks indicated that the current interest rates are close to the terminal level, suggesting a pause in rate cuts unless there are significant changes in economic conditions [1]

高盛预计，欧洲央行将于今年7月达到终端利率1.75%，此前预期为9月的1.5%。 ...