Economic Growth Expectations - The FOMC members project a median GDP growth of 1.6% for 2025, 1.4% for 2026, and 1.8% for both 2027 and 2028, with a long-term median growth rate of 1.8% [2] - The central tendency for 2025 GDP growth is between 1.4% and 1.7%, with a range of 1.3% to 2.0% [2] Unemployment Rate Projections - The median unemployment rate is forecasted to be 4.5% for both 2025 and 2026, 4.3% for 2027, and 4.2% for 2028, with a long-term median of 4.0% [3] - The central tendency for 2025 unemployment rate is between 4.4% and 4.5%, with a range of 4.2% to 4.6% [3] Inflation Trends - The median forecast for the PCE price index year-on-year growth is 3.0% for 2025, 2.6% for 2026, 2.1% for 2027, and 2.0% for 2028, with a long-term median of 2.0% [4] - The core PCE inflation forecast (excluding food and energy) is 3.1% for 2025, 2.6% for 2026, 2.1% for 2027, and 2.0% for 2028 [4] Interest Rate Path - The median forecast for the federal funds rate is 3.6% at the end of 2025, 3.4% for 2026, and 3.1% for both 2027 and 2028, with a long-term median of 3.0% [5] - The central tendency for the 2025 interest rate is between 3.6% and 4.1%, with a range of 2.9% to 4.4% [5] Comparison with Previous Forecasts - Compared to the June 2025 forecast, the median predictions for GDP growth, unemployment rate, PCE inflation, core PCE inflation, and federal funds rate remain unchanged, indicating stable assessments by FOMC members [6] Uncertainty and Risk Assessment - FOMC members assess that the uncertainty regarding GDP growth and inflation for 2025 is "similar to or higher than" the past 20 years [7] - Some members view the risks for GDP growth and unemployment as "roughly balanced," while inflation risks are seen as "roughly balanced" or "tilted upward" [7]

美联储最新经济 将如何为降息服 | | 2025年 | | 2026年 | | | 2027年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 机构预测 | Morgan Stanley | | Stanlev | | Morgan Stanley | | | | 大摩 | ING | 大摩 | ING | 大陸 | | | 实际GDP增速 | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | | | BA DA DA 7 T MIL | A 10/ | | A 101 | | | A 00/ | | 6月美联储刺测 | 1.4%0 | | 1.0%0 | | 1.64/0 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 失业率 | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.60/0 | 4.70/0 | 4.4% | 4 | | 6月美联储预测 | 4.5% | | 4.5% | | 4.40/0 | | | PCE通胀率 | 3.1% | 0 | 2.5% | 11 | 2.1% | | | 6月 ...

Core Insights - The Bank of Spain forecasts a quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of 0.6% to 0.7% for the third quarter, indicating a sustained robust expansion trend [1] - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been revised upward from 2.4% to 2.6%, while the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 remain unchanged at 1.8% and 1.7% respectively [1] - The inflation rate forecast for 2025 has been slightly increased to 2.5%, up from the previous estimate of 2.4%, although it remains lower than the actual inflation rate of 2.9% in 2024, suggesting a gradual easing of overall inflationary pressures [1] - The fiscal situation shows positive improvement, with the forecast for the government budget deficit as a percentage of GDP for 2025 revised down from 2.8% to 2.5%, indicating strengthened fiscal discipline and a trend towards a more stable fiscal situation [1]

Group 1: U.S. Economic Policy - The Trump administration announced a plan to impose a 50% tariff on Indian products and indicated high tariffs on imported furniture[1] - U.S. new home sales in July fell 0.6% to an annualized rate of 652,000, exceeding market expectations of 630,000[1] - The U.S. Q2 GDP annualized growth rate was revised to 3.3%, higher than the expected 3.1%[1] - The core PCE price index for July rose 2.9% year-on-year, the highest since February 2025, matching expectations[1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September increased from 75% to 86.4%[1] Group 2: European Economic Policy - The Eurozone economic sentiment index fell to 95.2 in August, down from 95.7 in July, breaking previous market expectations for a slight recovery[1] - The European Commission proposed legislative measures to implement tariff reductions on U.S. industrial goods and ensure U.S. tariff reductions on EU automobiles[1] Group 3: Global Market Performance - Global stock markets showed mixed performance, with most Asian markets rising while European and U.S. markets faced pressure[1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 3 basis points to 4.23%, while 20-30 year yields rose, indicating inflation concerns[1] - Gold prices increased due to rising concerns over the credibility of the U.S. dollar amid the Federal Reserve appointment controversy[1]

加拿大央行货币政策报告未提供经济预测，但指出美国关税带来的不确定性。 ...

瑞典财政部长：我们在六月做出的经济预测基本上仍然有效。 ...

Group 1 - The central bank governor of Israel indicated that the economic forecasts are subject to both upward and downward risks due to the developments in geopolitical situations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, consistent with market expectations, marking four consecutive months of unchanged rates. The Fed had previously cut rates by 100 basis points over the past year [1][6]. Economic Projections - The Fed has revised its economic growth forecast for the U.S. down from 1.7% to 1.4% for this year, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the March projection. The growth forecast for 2026 has been adjusted from 1.8% to 1.6%, while the 2027 forecast remains at 1.8% [6]. - The unemployment rate is projected to be 4.5% for this year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the March forecast. The PCE inflation forecast for this year is set at 3%, up from the previous estimate of 2.7%. The forecast for core PCE inflation is 3.1%, compared to 2.8% in March [6]. Dot Plot Insights - The dot plot indicates that 8 members support two rate cuts this year, a decrease of one from the March dot plot, while 7 members favor maintaining the current rate, an increase of three. This suggests a growing divergence within the Fed regarding future monetary policy [2][4]. Interest Rate Projections - The median projection for the federal funds rate remains at 3.9% for 2025, while the 2026 median projection has been raised from 3.4% to 3.6%. The long-term neutral rate expectation remains at 3% [1][5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the differences in interest rate paths among officials reflect the diversity of economic forecasts, including inflation [1]

策略师：美联储对经济预测与点阵图的修正成为关键 金十数据6月17日讯，Credit Mutuel Asset Management策略师Francois Rimeu在一份报告中说，美联储本 周会议的关键问题是对经济预测和点阵图的修正。与经济政策发展相关的预期调整应反映出增长放缓、 通胀比预期更持久，尽管最近几个月出现了令人惊喜的情况，而且劳动力市场走弱。在滞胀风险和高度 不确定性的背景下，美联储可能会重申其谨慎立场。因此，只要硬数据没有明确证明宽松政策是合理 的，美联储就将推迟任何新的降息举措。与市场一致，该策略预计美联储本周将维持关键利率不变。 ...