法新社10月9日报道，7日，世界银行宣布将2025年撒哈拉以南非洲经济增长预期从今年4月的3.5% 上调至3.8%。尽管全球经济持续存在不确定性、国际贸易紧张局势和高昂的借贷成本，但该机构在名 为《非洲脉搏》报告中指出，经济增长预计将继续加速，2025年和2026年年均增长率将达到4.4%。该 地区47个经济体中有30个经济体2025年增长预期被上调，包括埃塞俄比亚（+0.7个百分点）、尼日利亚 （+0.6个百分点）和科特迪瓦（+0.5个百分点）等主要经济体均实现了显著增长。撒哈拉以南非洲地区 的通货膨胀率在2022年达到9.3%的峰值后，2024年下降至4.5%，预计在2025-2026年期间将稳定在每年 3.9%至4%之间。报告还指出，该地区经济形势仍面临美国总统特朗普贸易政策带来的不确定性、国际 投资者投资意愿低迷、外部融资收紧以及多个国家债务负担沉重导致其更易受到外部冲击等风险。 （原标题：世界银行将2025年撒哈拉以南非洲地区经济增长预期上调至3.8%） ...

Q&A 国庆假期海外市场三件事 20251007 摘要 黄金价格突破 3,900 美元，白银创 14 年新高，反映了市场对避险资产 的需求增加，以及对潜在经济风险的担忧，可能预示着投资者风险偏好 的降低。 美国政府停摆可能导致 CPI 数据延迟发布，使美联储在 10 月 FOMC 会 议前缺乏数据支持，或迫使其在信息不足的情况下做出降息决策，增加 政策不确定性。 Revenal lab 测算非农初值高于市场预期，但 ADP 数据表现疲软，未来 非农数据修正情况值得关注，可能影响市场对美国劳动力市场健康状况 的评估。 特朗普政府可能借停摆进一步裁员，加剧劳动力市场压力，并可能引发 对美元信用的担忧，但历史数据显示政府停摆对 GDP 的实际影响可能有 限。 Polly Market 预测美国政府关门持续至 10 月 15 日的概率较高，两党 僵持可能强化经济下行风险，并加剧对美元信用的担忧，增加市场避险 情绪。 高市早苗当选日本自民党总裁，其"早苗经济学"延续安倍经济学，主 张宽财政、宽货币和结构改革，可能导致日元贬值和日本长债利率上升。 高市早苗的政策可能增加地缘政治不确定性，并增强全球债务不可持续 性，各国央 ...

Group 1: European Economic Outlook - Pantheon Macroeconomics suggests that September may be the last opportunity for the European Central Bank to lower interest rates in the Eurozone, with current expectations that rates will remain at 2.00% unless August's consumer price inflation falls below expectations [1] - Concerns over Eurozone debt may weaken the Euro, as highlighted by Deutsche Bank, especially with the potential for a government trust vote in France regarding budget deficit cuts [2] Group 2: Consumer Confidence in Germany - The GfK consumer confidence index in Germany fell from -21.7 to -23.6, marking a third consecutive decline due to rising fears of unemployment and inflation uncertainty [2] - Analysts indicate that income expectations have dropped significantly, reaching the lowest level since March, contributing to the overall decline in consumer sentiment [2] Group 3: Market Impact of Political Uncertainty - Swiss bank analysts note that while political uncertainty in France has increased, its impact on the market remains limited, with a widening spread between French and German government bonds [3] - Barclays highlights that India faces heightened economic risks due to high tariffs, with a total trade-weighted tax rate of 35.7%, particularly affecting its electrical machinery and jewelry sectors [3] Group 4: Manufacturing Sector Concerns - CGS International economists warn that Singapore's manufacturing outlook may be negatively impacted by U.S. tariffs, with the manufacturing PMI falling into contraction territory in July [3] - Ongoing uncertainties regarding trade policies and tariffs are expected to sustain downward risks for Singapore's manufacturing sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current trends in foreign investment in the U.S. stock market, highlighting a significant outflow of capital from regions like China, Hong Kong, and Singapore, amidst concerns over economic conditions and Federal Reserve policies [3][5][7]. Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - In Q2 2025, foreign investors had a net sell-off of approximately $80 billion in the U.S. stock market, indicating a clear trend of capital outflow from regions such as China, Hong Kong, and Singapore [3]. - China's net outward foreign direct investment was about $170 billion in 2024, while foreign direct investment inflows were steadily recovering, suggesting that global capital flows are not completely collapsing but external risks are accumulating [7]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Policies - The Federal Reserve's dot plot from June 2025 indicates that there is still a strong likelihood of at least one or two more interest rate hikes, which may deter foreign capital from returning to the U.S. market [5]. - In June 2025, the UK's CPI annual rate reached 7.9%, and Germany's industrial output fell by 0.5% year-on-year, reflecting broader economic challenges in Europe [5]. Group 3: Market Valuations and Risks - The price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 technology sector has surged to nearly 28 times, raising concerns about overvaluation [9]. - In June 2025, new housing starts in the U.S. decreased by 12% year-on-year, and mortgage applications continued to decline, indicating weakness in the real estate market [9]. Group 4: Investment Sentiment and Future Outlook - The article suggests that any potential capital inflow from foreign investors may be cautious and gradual, rather than a full-scale recovery, as indicated by Singapore's sovereign wealth fund's slight increase in U.S. equity allocation, which has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels [11]. - The inverted yield curve in the U.S. bond market persists, with short-term yields remaining high, signaling that risk appetite among investors is still contracting [11].

Group 1 - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting signals a potential shift in monetary policy, indicating that the Fed is open to interest rate cuts due to rising risks in the labor market and economic growth slowdown [1] - The current economic environment, characterized by high tariffs and tightened immigration policies, still shows resilience, but significant slowdowns in the labor market and economic growth are evident [1] - The expectation of a rate cut in September could enhance market enthusiasm for gold, as lower interest rates increase the investment appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [1] Group 2 - Gold prices surged to a high of 3378, driven by rising expectations of rate cuts, increasing economic risks, and a weakening dollar [2] - The market's shift from prioritizing anti-inflation measures to balancing employment and inflation reflects in gold pricing, indicating a potential onset of a loosening cycle [2] - Key upcoming economic indicators, such as the August non-farm payroll data and CPI, along with the Fed's September meeting, will be crucial in determining the sustainability of rate cut expectations and their impact on gold's medium to long-term trends [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the surge in gold prices, reaching a peak of 3377, is driven by increased expectations of interest rate cuts, heightened economic risks, and a weakening dollar [1] - The Federal Reserve's policy stance has shifted from prioritizing anti-inflation to balancing employment and inflation, which is reflected in the market's pricing of a loosening cycle in gold prices [1] - Future attention should be paid to the August non-farm payroll data, CPI data, and the Federal Reserve's September meeting, as these will determine whether the expectations for interest rate cuts can be sustained, impacting the medium to long-term trend of gold [1] Group 2 - There is strong support for gold at the 3315 level, and if it maintains this position and breaks through previous highs, it indicates a strengthening trend for gold [3] - If gold breaks through the 3352-48 range, it is advisable to continue buying, with a stop-loss if it falls below 40, targeting upward movement towards 3400 [3]

华盛顿上空，倒计时牌滴答作响。7月30日，美联储议息会议；8月1日，关税自动生效。美联储主席鲍威尔把自己锁在办公室，窗外，抗议者高 举"保卫美联储"的标语，而特朗普则在威斯康星州发表演讲，身后巨型屏幕上滚动着1.9万亿美元的数字，如同黄金铸成的棺椁，炫耀着其"历史 性胜利"。 但这胜利的背后，却是全球经济在渗血。 意大利投行Cassa Lombarda发出尖锐警告："再动鲍威尔，美元霸权就要崩盘！"法国财长更直言不讳："这是对全球经济的恐怖袭击！" 7月22 日，黄金价格突破3400美元/盎司，美元指数跌破98关口，几乎抹平了全年的涨幅。 这一切都源于特朗普政府近期一系列激进的贸易政策，以及 他对美联储主席鲍威尔的步步紧逼。 这三笔交易总规模超过1.9万亿美元，相当于每个美国公民凭空获得5700美元。特朗普当天连发三条社交动态："历史性胜利！""美国第一！"然 而，硬币的另一面正在渗血。巴西牛肉因对等报复而价格飙升18%（全美23%的牛肉来自巴西），印度则采取拖延战术。 这个看似辉煌的"胜利"，其代价却是巨大的经济风险。 鲍威尔成为了这场权力博弈的牺牲品，而全球经济则面临着巨大的不确定性。 特朗普的盟友们则开 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the economic risks outlined by Lagarde remain consistent with those presented in June [1] - A new potential positive factor mentioned is the improvement in corporate confidence, which may lead to increased investment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicates that the economy is facing increased risks and leans towards a more accommodative policy rate [1] Economic Risks - Waller highlights that the economy is encountering more risks, suggesting a cautious outlook for future economic performance [1] - The potential for economic slowdown may necessitate adjustments in monetary policy to support growth [1] Policy Implications - There is a tendency towards maintaining or lowering interest rates to foster economic stability [1] - The accommodative stance may be aimed at mitigating risks associated with inflation and economic uncertainty [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of England, Bailey, has indicated that there are increasing economic and geopolitical risks, alongside persistent global debt vulnerabilities [1] Group 1 - The emergence of more economic risks has been noted, suggesting a potential impact on market stability [1] - Geopolitical risks are also becoming more pronounced, which could affect global economic conditions [1] - The level of global debt vulnerability remains high, indicating ongoing concerns regarding financial stability [1]