上 市 公 司 公用事业 2025 年 12 月 01 日 中国燃气 (00384) | 市场数据： | 2025 年 11 月 28 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 8.60 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9130.18 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 8.85/5.97 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 468.54 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 5,448.15 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.9100 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -3% 17% 37% 57% 11/28 12/28 01/28 02/28 03/31 04/30 05/31 06/30 07/31 08/31 09/30 10/31 HSCEI 中国燃气 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com —— 气量毛差承压 自由现金流再创新 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][11]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a comprehensive energy service provider in Guangdong, with a strong focus on stable growth and high dividends. It has a diversified business model covering electricity, energy logistics, gas, renewable energy, energy storage, and energy finance, which enhances its operational synergy [10][21]. - The company has maintained a consistent dividend policy, with a dividend payout ratio exceeding 50% over the past three years. The dividend for 2024 is projected at 0.27 CNY per share, marking a historical high in dividend scale [10][45]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is a state-owned enterprise controlled by the Guangzhou State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, with a diversified energy portfolio across multiple provinces and regions [21][24]. - It has achieved significant green transformation, with over 76% of its installed capacity being green energy [23]. 2. Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 379.34 billion CNY for the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.46%, and a net profit of 21.59 billion CNY, up 36% year-on-year [33]. - The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 484.95 billion CNY, 513.84 billion CNY, and 530.19 billion CNY, respectively, with net profits of 22.45 billion CNY, 24.04 billion CNY, and 23.54 billion CNY [11][12]. 3. Business Segments Power Generation - The company has a solid foundation in thermal power, with a total controllable thermal power capacity of 483.65 million kW, including 250 million kW from coal and 233.65 million kW from gas [51]. - The company is expanding its renewable energy capacity, with wind and solar projects reaching a total installed capacity of 595 million kW [10][13]. Natural Gas - The natural gas segment is expected to see significant growth, with a projected revenue of 105.94 billion CNY in 2025, driven by increased sales volume and cost reduction strategies [12][39]. - The company has secured long-term LNG contracts to ensure stable gas supply, enhancing its competitive advantage [68]. Energy Logistics - The energy logistics business is expected to maintain stable revenue, although profit margins may decline in the short term due to fluctuating coal and oil prices [12][39]. 4. Valuation - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 10.5 for 2025, which is below the industry average. The report estimates a reasonable market value of 301.2 billion CNY, indicating a potential upside of 27.3% from the current market capitalization [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - Nenghui Technology has signed a contract for a total estimated price of 100.1463 million yuan (including tax) for a new energy power battery assembly, indicating its ongoing commitment to the new energy sector and strategic expansion in the charging and battery swapping market [1] Group 1: Contract and Business Operations - The contract signed with Company X is a routine operational contract and does not require board or shareholder approval, as it does not constitute a related party transaction or a major asset restructuring [1] - The company is implementing a "reverse involution" strategy to enhance management efficiency through organizational changes and refined management practices in response to competitive challenges in the photovoltaic industry [1] Group 2: Charging and Battery Swapping Technology - The company has developed the "Little Ant" trackless intelligent charging and swapping robot (AGV2.31), which is the first in China to possess independent intellectual property rights and is ready for application [2] - The "Little Ant" robot utilizes innovative technologies such as AI visual recognition, path planning, SLAM laser positioning, and OTA upgrades, enabling it to perform battery swaps for heavy trucks weighing up to three tons in just three minutes [2] - The company is also developing other types of battery swapping robots, including side-mounted rail robots (RGV) and overhead lifting robots, to cover various operational scenarios such as mines, docks, large logistics parks, and service areas [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Nenghui Technology, has signed a contract worth approximately 100.15 million yuan for a new energy power battery assembly, indicating its commitment to expanding its operations in the new energy sector [1] Group 1: Contract Details - Nenghui Technology signed a contract with Company X through its wholly-owned subsidiary, with an estimated total price of 100.15 million yuan (including tax) [1] - The final contract amount will be determined based on the settlement amount, and this contract is classified as a routine business contract, not requiring board or shareholder approval [1] Group 2: Business Strategy - The company is focused on the new energy sector, adhering to the development belief of "green business, definitely brilliant" [1] - In response to the competitive challenges in the photovoltaic industry, the company has implemented an "anti-involution" strategy, enhancing management efficiency through organizational changes and refined management [1] - The company is actively expanding its emerging business in the charging and battery swapping sector, leveraging its leading technology in battery swapping for heavy-duty trucks [1] Group 3: Technological Innovations - The company has developed the "Little Ant" trackless intelligent charging and swapping robot (AGV2.31), which is the first in China with independent intellectual property rights and practical application [2] - This robot utilizes various innovative technologies such as AI visual recognition, path planning, and SLAM laser positioning, enabling it to perform battery swaps for heavy-duty trucks weighing up to three tons in just three minutes [2] - The company has also developed other types of battery swapping robots to cater to different scenarios, including side-mounted rail and overhead swapping robots, covering applications in mines, ports, large logistics parks, and service areas [2] Group 4: Ecosystem Development - Nenghui Technology aims to build a complete charging and swapping ecosystem, which includes power battery assemblies, charging and swapping robots, charging station construction, and intelligent operation services [2]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 947 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.75%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 43 million yuan, down 41.09% year-on-year, although the non-recurring profit increased by 170.88% [1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 261 million yuan, an increase of 12.77% year-on-year, and a net profit of 302,300 yuan, with a significant increase in non-recurring profit by 159.36% [1] - The company experienced a substantial improvement in cash flow due to the recovery of national subsidies, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 306 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 321.95% [1] Financial Performance - The gross profit margin and net profit margin for the reporting period were 28.09% and 5.22%, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 3.56 percentage points and 2.89 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The expense ratio for the period was 27.84%, down 2.26 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company's asset-liability ratio stood at 64.75%, an increase of 5.70 percentage points year-on-year, while the interest-bearing debt ratio decreased significantly by 11.50 percentage points to 31.87% [1] Strategic Developments - The company made significant progress in strategic transformation, achieving breakthroughs in smart grids, renewable energy development, and integrated energy [2] - In the smart distribution network sector, the company secured supplier qualifications from China National Petroleum Corporation, with a substantial increase in the bidding amount for smart distribution network equipment [2] - The company is actively advancing project resource reserves in renewable energy, with a total wind power capacity of 246,000 kW and solar power capacity of 298,600 kW as of June 30, 2025 [2] Future Outlook - The company anticipates significant growth in Q4 2025 due to the end of maintenance for biomass power generation and the onset of the heating season, with projected net profits of 82 million yuan, 121 million yuan, and 154 million yuan for 2025 to 2026, corresponding to PE ratios of 53x, 36x, and 28x respectively [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 213.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.6% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 39.05 billion yuan, down 10.0% [1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 75.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 13.1% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.5%, with a net profit of 14.41 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year but up 13.5% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The report suggests an upward revision of profit forecasts due to higher-than-expected coal prices since the peak season, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being 52.7 billion, 54.4 billion, and 55.4 billion yuan respectively [4] Summary by Sections Coal Sector - In Q3 2025, the company produced 85.5 million tons of coal, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.1%. Coal sales were 111.6 million tons, down 3.5% year-on-year but up 5.7% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The average selling price of self-produced coal decreased to 455 yuan per ton, down 87 yuan year-on-year and 17 yuan quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to delayed adjustments in long-term contract prices [2] - The coal segment achieved a gross profit of 15.4 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a decrease of 25% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter [2] Power Generation Sector - The company’s power generation and sales volumes in Q3 2025 were 64.1 billion and 60.2 billion kWh, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 2.3% and 2.5%, but significant quarter-on-quarter increases of 32.5% and 32.4% [3] - The average selling price of electricity was 376 yuan per MWh, down 4.9% year-on-year and 2.6% quarter-on-quarter, while the average cost of electricity was 298 yuan per MWh, down 14.1% year-on-year and 12.4% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The power generation segment reported a profit of 5.1 billion yuan in Q3 2025, up 58% quarter-on-quarter and 105% year-on-year [3] Transportation Sector - The transportation segment, including railways and ports, reported revenues of 32.8 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with profits of 10.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [4] - The port segment's gross profit increased due to lower costs, while the shipping segment saw a decline in gross profit due to adjustments in shipping operations [4] Financial Forecasts - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 52.7 billion, 54.4 billion, and 55.4 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.3, 9.9, and 9.6 [4] - The report indicates a stable dividend return and strong operational synergy across its seven business segments, reinforcing the "Outperform the Market" rating [4]

Core Viewpoint - Ping An is optimistic about China Shenhua, initiating coverage with a "Buy" rating, highlighting its leading position in the domestic thermal coal market and strong profitability under current coal prices [1] Company Overview - China Shenhua is recognized as the leader in the domestic thermal coal sector, with superior resource quality and significant coal mine scale [1] - The company employs a vertical integration strategy through its "coal-electricity-chemicals-transport-trade" model, which provides resilience in performance amid coal price fluctuations [1] Financial Performance - The company has a high cash dividend payout ratio exceeding 70% in recent years, indicating strong shareholder returns [1] - Future projections suggest an increase in coal prices and sales volume due to recovering demand and rising thermal power generation [1] Strategic Initiatives - China Shenhua plans to acquire assets from the State Energy Group to enhance its integrated business model, aiming to establish itself as a comprehensive energy leader [1] - The company is expected to benefit from resource integration, leading to valuation enhancement in the new cycle [1] Market Conditions - Regulatory constraints on coal supply growth due to safety inspections and production limits are anticipated to support coal price stability [1] - The company’s production capacity and integrated supply chain advantages position it well to navigate market challenges [1]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for China Shenhua (601088.SH) with a target price of 42.22 CNY as of October 23 [1]. Core Views - China Shenhua is positioned as a leading player in the coal industry, demonstrating strong performance resilience and high dividend payouts. The company has maintained a cash dividend rate above 70% in recent years, with a trend of gradual increases, ensuring substantial cash dividends for shareholders [8][18]. - The company is expanding its resource base through acquisitions, which is expected to initiate a new growth cycle. The acquisition of assets from the State Energy Group will enhance its vertical integration across coal, electricity, and chemical sectors, solidifying its position as a comprehensive energy leader [8][9][38]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Shenhua, established in 2004 and listed in 2007, has built a leading position in the coal industry through strategic acquisitions. The company is controlled by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) and is part of the National Energy Group, which ranks first in coal production in China [8][14]. - The company has a total share capital of 19,869 million shares, with a market capitalization of 823.2 billion CNY and a debt-to-asset ratio of 31.12% [1]. Core Advantages - The company maintains a leading production scale, with a projected output of 327.1 million tons in 2024, accounting for 25% of the total output among 30 listed coal companies [8][38]. - China Shenhua's integrated business model includes coal production, transportation, power generation, and coal chemical processing, which creates a closed-loop industrial chain [9][38]. - The company has a robust financial structure, with cash reserves exceeding interest-bearing liabilities, indicating a strong liquidity position [20][21]. Industry Perspective - The coal market is currently experiencing supply constraints, with demand expected to recover. The report indicates that the fundamentals of the thermal coal market are improving, driven by seasonal demand and regulatory measures limiting supply growth [9][38]. - The company’s long-term contracts account for a significant portion of its sales, providing stability in pricing and revenue even amid fluctuating market conditions [29][30]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Suggestions - The report forecasts revenues of 313.5 billion CNY, 323.5 billion CNY, and 333.3 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 51.4 billion CNY, 52.5 billion CNY, and 53.9 billion CNY [6][9]. - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 16.3, 16.0, and 15.6 for the respective years, reflecting its strong market position and profitability [6][9].

Core Viewpoint - The project company Chongqing Baitao Gas Turbine Combined Heat and Power Co., Ltd. has successfully completed a 168-hour continuous full-load trial run for the Chongqing Fuling Baitao Chemical Park Combined Heat and Power Project, which aligns with national industrial policies and the company's strategic goals [1] Group 1: Project Details - The project involves an investment of no more than 1.277 billion yuan for the construction of a 490 MW combined heat and power unit [1] - The expected annual electricity generation is approximately 2.1 billion kWh, with a maximum heating capacity of 1.5 million tons [1] Group 2: Strategic Alignment - The project supports the company's focus on its main business and helps consolidate its development foundation [1] - It is in line with the company's strategic development goal of becoming a leading comprehensive energy listed company based on power distribution and sales [1]

Group 1: Company Overview - Shanghai Nenghui Technology Co., Ltd. focuses on photovoltaic power station R&D, system integration, and investment operations, while also engaging in new energy products and services such as energy storage and smart microgrids [3] - In the first half of 2025, approximately 96.43% of the company's revenue came from photovoltaic system integration, with other businesses contributing about 3.55% [3] Group 2: Financial Performance - The company's photovoltaic system integration revenue grew by 44.80% in the first half of 2025, while power engineering design revenue more than doubled, and station operation revenue increased by 76.66% [3] - Operating cash flow turned positive, increasing by 179.26% year-on-year [3] - The company reported a decline in profitability due to intense competition in the photovoltaic industry and a stock incentive expense of 11.225 million [7] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to collaborate with Ant Group on "Energy AI Intelligent Agents" to explore new business models and profit growth [4] - The company is actively developing its overseas energy storage business, with projects in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, and has established an overseas energy storage company in the Netherlands [5] Group 4: Market Outlook and Challenges - The company is adapting to new market policies and aims to selectively develop higher-quality projects with better returns [5] - The company has approximately 40 million yuan in contracts signed or under negotiation for heavy-duty vehicle battery swap projects, with optimistic orders expected by the end of Q4 and into next year [6]