这场风波的根源其实从格陵兰岛问题开始。特朗普早就对这片土地心怀不轨，明里暗里多次表露出想要将其收入囊中的愿望，而这次，他的举动终于彻底惹 怒了丹麦和瑞典。为了避免和美国彻底翻脸，欧洲不敢直接出手，而是让手中掌握巨额资金的养老基金出面——一种既能表达不满，又能不至于激化矛盾的 微妙方式。丹麦卖出了大约1亿美元的美债，瑞典则卖出了约80亿美元，两者合计81亿美元，传递出的意思是：我们不是真的怕你，但你不能总是这样肆无 忌惮。 2026年伊始，全球金融圈迎来了一出小插曲。丹麦和瑞典这两大养老基金悄悄减持了81亿美元的美债，虽然这笔钱在美国庞大的国债体系中几乎微不足道， 甚至连塞牙缝都不够，但特朗普却立刻炸毛了。不到一天，他就放话说，欧洲再敢减持美债，就准备承受报复。这番话一听就很有威胁性，但美国和欧洲这 对老盟友，究竟怎么走到这一步的呢？ 对于养老基金的减持，这背后的解释也十分直接。不是为了故意与美国作对，而是因为他们心里没有底。一方面，美国的债务压力越来越大，谁也无法保证 未来它能按时、足额地偿还这些债务。另一方面，特朗普的脾气实在难以捉摸，尤其是在格陵兰岛问题上的强硬态度，让他们对将资金全部投放在美债上感 到极 ...

一、热点思考：美债恐慌重演，市场误读了什么？ （一）全球债市恐慌重演，美国上演"股债汇三杀"，特朗普再度TACO 1月20日，海外市场再度上演"股债汇三杀"。 美欧日国债遭集体抛售，权益等风险资产普跌，美元走 弱，黄金等避险资产走强。日本40年国债利率突破4.0%，10年美债利率升至4.3%，30年英债升至5.2%， 美元跌至98.54，纳指跌2.39%，黄金升至4748美元。 联系人 | 赵宇 摘要 美国股债汇三杀冲击下，特朗普再度TACO，撤回对欧洲关税。短期市场冲击虽阶段性缓和，但债务、地 缘等根本矛盾并未解决。随着债务持续扩张，特朗普采取更多"柔性"金融抑制措施。 股债汇三杀核心触发因素有三点。 一是美欧格陵兰争端，引发市场关税担忧；二是丹麦养老基金宣布将 退出美债投资，欧洲或将美债武器化，美债抛售风险上升；三是高市早苗1月19日宣布解散议会，进行提 前选举，1月20日，日本国债拍卖走弱，加剧了市场对美债的抛售。 流动性冲击下，特朗普达沃斯论坛再度TACO，市场阶段性缓和。 1月21日，美国总统特朗普在达沃斯论 坛上表态：1）排除武力夺取格陵兰岛的可能性；2）已与欧洲形成格陵兰协议框架；3）2月1日不 ...

2026年1月，美国财政部数据出炉：中国手里剩的美债只有6826亿美元了。这是2008年9月以来最低的一次。从2024年底开始算，已经连续九个月在卖，总共 甩了超过1100亿。以前最高时有1.3万亿，现在快砍掉一半了。 这数字不是突然掉的，是一点点减下来的。没人喊口号，也没发声明，就是每月TIC报告一出，数字又低一点。很多人一开始没在意，后来才发现，原来一 直在动。 美国那边已经开始嘀咕了。毕竟中国曾是美债第二大持有国，这位置空出来，谁来补？以前是"美国借钱，全世界买"，现在大家不那么乐意了。 这不是要跟美元对着干。中国也没把美债全清掉。剩下的这些，还能用，也能谈条件。关键是不能全押进去，一旦出事就没退路。 外界有人说这是"金融核弹"，其实挺离谱的。真要炸早就炸了。现在的做法是慢慢撤，不让市场吓到，也不给自己找麻烦。 特朗普最近说2026年4月要来中国，说不定就跟这事有关。美债没人买，利率就得往上走，老百姓贷款、政府发债全受影响。他之前还想降息到1%，现在 看，怕是难。 评级机构也开始 warning 美债风险，做空的人多起来了。如果接下来几个大买家都继续撤，美联储只能自己接盘。可它这几年也快撑不住了。 现在 ...

美方这番操作透着股心虚的精明，想谈又不敢碰核心矛盾，本质是想在不付出实质代价的前提下，为特 朗普的访华行程搭好"面子工程"。要知道2025年11月中国刚完成新一轮美债减持，61亿美元的抛售让持 仓规模降至6826亿美元，创下2008年9月以来的最低水平，从2025年1月算起跌幅已近10%。这可不是简 单的资产调整，而是中方用实际行动对美债风险投出的不信任票，复旦大学邵宇的评价一语中的，美国 巨额债务积累就是典型的庞氏骗局，靠新债还旧债的游戏中方早已不愿奉陪。 美方刻意回避的两个议题，恰恰是中美博弈的核心命脉。技术竞争领域，美方嘴上放开高端芯片对华出 口，实际科技围堵从未松懈，骨子里认定中国发展威胁其霸权地位。军工科技的较量从来都是暗流涌 动，芯片作为现代武器装备的"大脑"，美方的有限松动不过是权宜之计，想靠这种小恩小惠换取中方在 其他领域让步，算盘打得太响。稀土供应链更是美方的软肋，2025年中方就凭这张牌让特朗普尝到关税 战的苦果，迫使美方坐到谈判桌前。如今美方不愿提及，无非是不想拿出对等筹码，又怕再被中方拿 捏，只能选择装聋作哑。 据环球时报报道，当地时间1月22日，特朗普在空军一号上高调宣布4月将访问中 ...

金价突破4950美元，简直太疯狂了，背后有何原因？ 大家比较迷茫的是，现在格陵兰岛的问题好像缓解了，市场避险情绪没有那么重了，黄金为啥还这么上涨呢？我觉得核心是大家对美元的信任度开始降低， 因为市场预期格陵兰岛之后下一个风险在哪里，这个谁也不好说，市场情绪预期比较消息，所以都在拼命的增持黄金，作为美元的替代货币，还有就是美国 国债被大举抛售，那么出来的这些钱自然就跑到黄金里面去了，大家看了一圈，还是黄金比较保险，似乎远远胜于美元的主权货币，因为美元有信用风险， 还有美债风险，而黄金无疑成为了必要的替代。 展望黄金接下来的走势，我觉得高盛给出的目标价是2026年12月份到5400美元，以目前的市场氛围看，估计到不了那会就突破这个目标了，在全球对主权货 币担忧的背景下，最高不要猜测黄金的高点，一切让市场自己走是最合适不过了。 因为黄金的大涨，今天开盘有色金属板块也出现了飙升，相关指数盘中涨幅达到了2%，这点其实我也想到了，毕竟贵金属和金属之间是有关联度的，今天 铜、锡等都出现不同程度的反弹。 免责声明：文中内容仅供参考，不构成任何操作建议或提示，基金有风险，投资请谨慎！ 现货黄金还是比较牛，今天早盘最高到了495 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is experiencing downward pressure due to multiple negative factors, including trade tensions, uncertainty in monetary policy, and rising risks associated with US debt [2][3]. Group 1: Dollar Index Performance - As of December 22, the dollar index is at 98.02, showing a slight increase of 0.02% from the previous trading day, with a year-to-date decline of approximately 9.2% from a high of 108.48 at the end of 2024 [1]. - The dollar index has shown a clear trend of volatility and decline, with only three trading days in December recording gains, and significant single-day declines of 0.555% and 0.485% on December 10 and December 15, respectively [1]. - Trading volume has decreased significantly, with only 12,100 contracts traded on December 17, down from a peak of 23,800 contracts at the beginning of December, indicating a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market [1]. Group 2: Factors Affecting the Dollar Index - The primary reason for the sustained pressure on the dollar index is the impact of the new round of "tariff wars" initiated by the Trump administration, which has shaken market confidence and increased inflation concerns due to rising import prices [2]. - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has exacerbated the volatility of the dollar index, with diverging views on the pace of interest rate cuts since the onset of the easing cycle in September 2024 [2]. - The ongoing risk associated with US debt has also become a significant factor suppressing the dollar index, with the US raising its debt ceiling by $5 trillion and projected deficits increasing by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, leading to a downgrade in the US credit rating by major agencies [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Institutions generally expect the dollar index to maintain a weak and volatile trend due to ongoing global trade tensions, uncertainty in Federal Reserve policies, and unresolved debt risks [3]. - Short-term market attention should focus on the Federal Reserve's December monetary policy meeting minutes and the preliminary GDP data for the fourth quarter; weaker-than-expected economic data could lead to increased expectations for aggressive rate cuts, further pressuring the dollar [3]. - The policy movements of major global central banks and changes in global risk sentiment will also be important variables influencing short-term fluctuations in the dollar index [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the expected slight appreciation of the RMB against the USD in 2026, with a projected range of 6.8-7.2, influenced by both internal and external factors [2][17]. Group 1: USD Index Decline - The USD index ended its strong upward trend in 2025, declining from 108.4816 to 98.5859, a drop of 9.1% [2][3]. - Major currencies such as the Swedish Krona, Euro, Swiss Franc, British Pound, Japanese Yen, and Canadian Dollar appreciated against the USD by 15.1%, 12.6%, 12%, 7.3%, 3.4%, and 3% respectively during the same period [2]. Group 2: Factors Behind USD Index Decline - The decline in the USD index is attributed to several factors, including the initiation of a new "tariff war" by the Trump administration, increased uncertainty regarding Fed rate cuts, and rising risks associated with US Treasury bonds [3][4]. - The "tariff war" has undermined global confidence in USD assets, exacerbating trade tensions and leading to a shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets like gold [4]. - The tariff measures have also increased inflationary pressures in the US, complicating the Fed's policy decisions and potentially leading to capital outflows [4][5]. Group 3: Fed Rate Cut Uncertainty - Since September 2024, the Fed has entered a new rate cut cycle, with increasing uncertainty regarding future monetary policy due to the Trump administration's policies and personnel changes at the Fed [6][7]. - The Fed's updated monetary policy framework emphasizes flexible inflation targeting and the balance between maximum employment and price stability, contributing to market uncertainty regarding rate cuts [9]. Group 4: US Treasury Risks - Concerns over US Treasury bond risks have intensified, particularly following the passage of the "Big and Beautiful Act," which raised the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, increasing the national debt and associated risks [11]. - The downgrade of the US credit rating by major agencies has further eroded investor confidence in US Treasuries [11]. - A structural shift in the investor base, with foreign official investors reducing their holdings of US Treasuries, has led to increased volatility in the bond market [12]. Group 5: RMB Exchange Rate Analysis - The RMB appreciated slightly against the USD in 2025, with the central parity rising from 7.1884 to 7.1055, an increase of 1.2% [17]. - The RMB's exchange rate is influenced by both external factors, particularly the USD index, and internal policies aimed at stimulating consumption and economic growth [18]. - The RMB is expected to continue appreciating slightly in 2026, with a projected range of 6.8-7.2, as internal and external factors converge [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - China's recent increase in gold reserves, reaching 74.12 million ounces by the end of November, signals a strategic shift in its financial positioning amidst rising U.S. debt and concerns over dollar credibility [1][3][28] Group 1: Gold Reserves and Strategic Implications - China has been steadily increasing its gold reserves for thirteen consecutive months, which is not just a routine update but a significant political signal [1][3] - The increase in gold reserves is seen as a move to enhance financial resilience and reduce reliance on U.S. debt, especially as global financial risks rise [13][20] - The psychological and credit implications of holding substantial gold reserves influence global perceptions of a country's currency and financial stability [9][11] Group 2: U.S. Debt and Global Financial Dynamics - The perception of U.S. Treasury bonds as the "safest asset" is being challenged as concerns over U.S. fiscal discipline and rising debt levels grow [15][17] - China's strategic reduction of U.S. debt holdings reflects a broader trend among countries reassessing their exposure to U.S. financial instruments [18][20] - The shift from U.S. debt to gold and other non-dollar assets indicates a diminishing structural dependency on the dollar, potentially altering the global financial landscape [30][32] Group 3: Geopolitical Context and Future Outlook - The announcement of increased gold reserves serves as a warning to the U.S. that China will not continue to support U.S. fiscal irresponsibility [28][32] - As more countries diversify away from U.S. debt, the foundations of U.S. monetary hegemony are showing signs of irreversible weakening [24][30] - The current geopolitical climate suggests that nations with substantial hard assets will have greater influence in future financial order restructuring [32]

Group 1 - The recent partial agreement between China and the U.S. indicates a temporary easing of the trade war, with the U.S. government showing signs of concession after facing multiple challenges [1] - Analysts warn that the severity of the situation is not fully recognized, as the U.S. national debt increased by $600 billion in the first month of the government shutdown, averaging $19 billion in new debt daily [3] - The prolonged government shutdown has led to significant disruptions, including over 3.2 million flight cancellations or delays affecting travelers, and approximately 800,000 federal employees facing unpaid leave [3] Group 2 - The historical duration of the government shutdown coincides with a collapsing labor market and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts without data support, indicating a risk of systemic failure [4] - Trump's past decisions have often been linked to U.S. debt, with tax policies failing to yield expected revenues and increasing tax burdens on ordinary citizens [4] - The push for a "stable currency" policy, including the proposed "Genius Act" to ensure stablecoins are tied to the dollar, raises concerns about the reliance on U.S. debt market stability [6] Group 3 - The depletion of funds in the U.S. Department of Agriculture threatens food assistance for over 40 million low-income individuals, highlighting stark contrasts in government spending priorities [6] - The extravagant spending on White House renovations and lavish events by Trump contrasts sharply with the struggles of low-income citizens, raising questions about government priorities [6] - The internal issues within the U.S. government may lead to its eventual collapse, suggesting that the temporary truce in trade may be a strategic retreat by Trump [6]

Core Insights - China is exploring innovative financial strategies to manage its foreign exchange reserves amidst the rising risks associated with U.S. Treasury securities, potentially reshaping the global monetary landscape [1][4][10] Group 1: U.S. Debt and Global Implications - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $34 trillion and continues to grow rapidly, prompting a reevaluation of the long-term value of dollar assets [4][10] - The uncertainty in the U.S. political environment often turns the debt issue into a political bargaining chip, leading global investors, especially large institutional ones, to reassess their asset allocation strategies [4][10] Group 2: China's Innovative Financial Strategies - China is enhancing its foreign exchange reserve management through a series of well-designed financial arrangements, moving beyond traditional asset management [4][8] - A notable example includes China's innovative cooperation with major energy-exporting countries, which not only involves traditional energy trade but also diversified financial arrangements [5][8] Group 3: Renminbi Internationalization - The internationalization of the Renminbi is gaining momentum, with its share in global payments expected to reach a new high in 2024, driven by China's increasing economic influence and financial market openness [7][12] - The establishment of a currency cooperation network between the People's Bank of China and multiple central banks supports the cross-border use of the Renminbi [7] Group 4: Debt Conversion Mechanisms - China has developed a multi-tiered debt conversion mechanism to optimize the structure of its foreign exchange reserves, allowing for the transformation of some dollar assets into forms that better meet the needs of various parties [8][10] Group 5: Evolving Global Financial Landscape - The traditional dollar-centric international monetary system is evolving towards a more diversified structure, with emerging market countries playing an increasingly significant role [10][12] - The next five years are anticipated to be crucial for the transformation of the international monetary system, with the Renminbi expected to play a more prominent role [12][14] Group 6: Trends in Global Monetary Systems - The current changes in the international financial sector indicate a profound trend towards a multi-currency system, with China contributing unique insights for global financial stability [13][14] - A diversified foundation is essential for true financial security, and China's active participation in international financial rule-making aims to foster a fairer and more inclusive global financial system [14]