Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **technology sector**, with a specific focus on **AI** and its implications for the **U.S. economy** and **global asset allocation**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Technology Capital Expenditure as a Key Variable** Technology capital expenditure is identified as a crucial factor influencing the global economic cycle and asset allocation in 2026, affecting major assets like the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and U.S. equities [2][4][12] 2. **Impact of AI on U.S. GDP Growth** The technology sector, particularly AI, contributes significantly to U.S. GDP growth, accounting for at least 0.5 percentage points of GDP increase. This contribution is more pronounced due to the U.S.'s leading position in technology capital expenditure compared to other countries like China [8][12] 3. **Current Monetary Policy Environment** The U.S. is currently in a loose monetary policy cycle, with the Federal Reserve likely to maintain this stance to address complex economic issues, reducing concerns about an AI bubble burst [5][6][7] 4. **Political Influence on Monetary Policy** The Federal Reserve's monetary policy may be influenced by political factors, leading to continued loose policies even in the face of improving employment data and rising inflation pressures [6][7] 5. **Global Capital Flows and the Dollar** AI development is expected to attract global capital into the U.S., supporting a strong dollar. In 2024, the U.S. technology sector is projected to outperform, maintaining a high dollar index despite potential trade war impacts [9][10] 6. **Debt Management through Technology Investment** The resolution of U.S. government debt issues relies heavily on technology capital expenditure and Federal Reserve policies. Sustained technology investment can attract foreign capital, aiding in debt management [14] 7. **Concerns about AI Bubble** Market concerns regarding an AI bubble are primarily focused on financing and over-investment issues. However, the current liquidity environment is relatively loose, mitigating these concerns [5][15] 8. **Future of the Dollar and Gold Prices** The strength of the dollar is influenced by economic cycles, demand changes, and liquidity conditions. While short-term fluctuations may occur, the long-term strength of the dollar is tied to the performance of the technology sector [16] 9. **Investment Opportunities in December** December presents potential investment opportunities in the technology sector, especially if market concerns about financing and investment arise, coinciding with expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [17] Other Important but Overlooked Content 1. **AI's Political Dimension** The current AI revolution is characterized by its strong political attributes, with the U.S. facing intense competition from China, leading to unprecedented governmental focus on technology development [11][12] 2. **Long-term Economic Strategy** The U.S. government is expected to increase investments in AI and emerging technologies to maintain its competitive edge, which will significantly impact global capital markets and international political economy [12][13]

来源：滚动播报 美元走势平稳，因美联储是否会在12月再次降息存在不确定性。美联储官员近期的言论显示，决策者对 12月的决定存在分歧。上周的美国数据也未能为利率路径提供任何明确信号。这其中包括推迟公布的9 月份非农就业报告，该报告显示新增就业人数超出预期，但失业率意外上升。此外，这些数据是回顾性 的，而且由于最近的政府停摆，10月份的完整就业数据将不会公布。DXY美元指数持平，报100.192。 ...

来源：中国黄金网 如果60天线支持有效，反弹目标为4040~4050美元/盎司、4100~4140美元/盎司区间：如果60日均线能守住，国际金价短期可能先反弹到过去区间 4040~4050美元/盎司；要是能站稳这个区间，再往上就会冲击日云区顶4100~4140美元/盎司区间，但这个位置压力不小，能不能突破还要看后续信号。 对于刚接触黄金投资的朋友来说，近期国际金价的走势可能让人摸不着头脑——10月前一路狂奔，10月中旬以后则一路回调，11月虽有反弹但力度很弱， 后续还会不会跌、什么时候能涨，成了大家最关心的问题。其实只要理清核心逻辑，就能看懂国际金价的后续走向。 当前国际金价的核心现状：反弹无力，短期仍有下跌压力。 10月中旬开始，国际金价进入回调通道，主要是因为市场的避险情绪降温了。虽然11月有过一次技术性反弹，但没能突破10月跌浪菲波61.8％关键阻力 位，还很快回落至菲波38.2％下方，这说明反弹缺乏足够的资金和信心支撑，下跌趋势暂时没有被打破。 从技术层面看，有3个信号值得注意。一是多个周期的指数平滑异同移动平均线指标（MACD）指标呈现"死亡交叉"，这是偏向下跌的信号；二是国际金 价已经跌破了5日、 ...

上周五，黄金（XAU/USD）在欧洲交易时段前延续了日内下跌走势，并在收盘前触及约每盎司4,030-4,029美元的日低。市场对美国联邦储备系统（Fed）12 月再次降息的预期下降，加上非农就业数据推迟发布，成为美元走强的主要推动力。美元自五月底以来持续上涨，对无收益的黄金形成明显压力。 在上行方面，若价格稳步突破4,100美元并获得确认，有望测试4,152-4,155美元区域，并可能靠近4,200美元整数关口。 不过，美国政府历时最长的停摆引发的经济增长放缓担忧，以及持续的国际地缘政治不确定性，为黄金提供了一定支撑。股票市场整体偏弱的走势，也显示 投资者对风险资产的信心有所减弱，从而增加了对黄金等避险资产的关注。 近期市场关注点还包括美国制造业PMI、消费者信心指数修正以及美联储官员的讲话，这些数据和信息可能为美元和黄金提供新的动力。整体来看，金价短 期内仍受美元走势和全球风险情绪的双重影响，投资者对避险和波动的关注仍将持续。 美国最新发布的非农就业报告显示，9月份新增就业岗位119,000个，高于市场预期的50,000个。平均时薪同比增长保持在3.8%，略高于预期的3.7%。尽管失 业率从4.3%上升至4 ...

来源：滚动播报 9月非农就业报告显示失业率意外上升，带动美元延续走弱态势。丹斯克银行分析师在报告中指出，此 次失业率上升源于劳动力供给增加，缓解了劳动力市场的紧张状况，从而提振了市场对美联储降息的预 期，推动美债收益率和美元小幅回落。然而，分析师强调，这一数据尚不足以构成美联储明确降息的强 有力信号，趋势难以为继。该行仍预计美联储12月将按兵不动，目前市场对降息的定价概率约为32%。 ...

中经记者 谭志娟 北京报道 北京时间11月20日凌晨，美国联邦储备委员会（以下简称"美联储"）公布了10月联邦公开市场委员会 （FOMC）货币政策会议纪要。会议纪要显示，美联储官员对12月是否继续降息存在较大分歧。 会议纪要显示，许多与会者支持降低联邦基金利率目标区间，但同时也指出部分支持降息的成员对维持 利率不变同样可接受。另有数名官员反对降息。 美联储最终以10比2的投票结果通过降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率区间降至3.75%至4%。但此次纪要 表明决定是在激烈争论下勉强达成的共识，而12月是否会再度降息仍存在不确定性。 郭一鸣则表示："因为A股定价核心仍锚定国内基本面，当前稳健的货币政策与持续加码的稳增长措施 有望形成有效对冲，且市场前期已逐步消化部分外部预期，冲击幅度或处于可控范围。" 展望明年A股走势，郭一鸣预计，A股有望呈现"先抑后扬、逐步震荡上行"的慢牛格局。 "预计驱动因素将从当前的流动性宽松预期，逐步切换至基本面实质复苏的验证。全球主要国家宽财政 与宽货币的政策环境仍有利于需求回暖，国内企业盈利亦有望随经济修复而稳步回升，共同支撑市场的 中长期趋势。"郭一鸣解释说。 巨丰投顾投资顾问总监郭一 ...

Core Insights - The cancellation of the October non-farm payroll report by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has led to a decrease in investor confidence regarding a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [1] - The delay of the November non-farm report to December 16 means the Federal Reserve will only have the September report to base its decision on, creating uncertainty about the labor market conditions for October and November [1] - A significant drop in the September non-farm report would be necessary to encourage market participants to increase bets on a December rate cut, which could weaken the U.S. dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently experiencing fluctuations in gold prices, influenced by various factors including U.S. economic data, Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, and global risk sentiment [1][2][4]. Market Analysis - Gold prices are hovering around $4060, with investors cautious ahead of the U.S. non-farm payroll report, reflecting increased sensitivity to macroeconomic uncertainties [1][2]. - The expectation of a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has diminished, leading to a stronger dollar, which exerts pressure on non-yielding gold [2][4]. - Global stock markets are showing positive sentiment, reducing the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][4]. Technical Analysis - Recent gold price movements have been characterized by volatility, with a focus on short-selling strategies around resistance levels near $4090 [4][5]. - The upcoming non-farm payroll data is highly anticipated, as it will provide insights into the U.S. employment market and influence future Federal Reserve monetary policy [2][4]. Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategies include short positions on gold around $4090-$4100 with targets set at $4050-$4030, and potential long positions if prices retrace to $4000-$4005 [5][6]. - Emphasis on strict risk management and position sizing is highlighted to mitigate potential losses in a volatile market [5][6].

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy has not significantly worsened during the longest government shutdown in history, according to Wall Street economists, who base their views on limited information, particularly weekly unemployment claims [1][3] - During the 43-day government shutdown, initial unemployment claims remained low, with estimates showing 218,000 claims in the last week before the shutdown and 228,000 in the most recent week [3][4] - Economists believe that the labor market has not experienced a sharp deterioration, despite a slowdown in hiring activity since spring [4][5] Labor Market Dynamics - The low layoff rate is crucial for the ongoing economic expansion, with the unemployment rate remaining below historical averages, previously at 4.3% before the shutdown [3][4] - However, hiring has nearly stalled, making it more difficult for job seekers, although low unemployment rates may still support consumer confidence and spending [4][5] - Structural changes in the labor market, such as the retirement of the baby boomer generation and a decrease in immigration, are contributing to the slowdown in hiring [5] Inflation Concerns - Inflation pressures remain high, with the annual inflation rate at 3%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% and nearly double the average inflation rate from 2010 to 2019 [6] - The impact of tariffs on inflation may not yet be fully realized, and persistent inflation could lead the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates during its December meeting [6][7] - The dual pressures of a tightening labor market and high inflation are affecting the economy, particularly impacting middle- and low-income households [6] Dollar Impact Analysis - In the short term, persistent inflation expectations may support the dollar, but medium-term pressures are accumulating, with the dollar's trajectory dependent on the interplay between inflation resilience and economic slowdown [8][9] - The dollar index showed a slight increase of 0.08% to around 99.35, indicating market reactions to inflation and employment data [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Lisa D. Cook emphasized that inflation pressures remain severe, with expectations that inflation rates will stay above the 2% policy target for the next 2 to 3 years, advocating for a restrictive monetary policy to maintain the Fed's credibility [1] Group 1: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Cook highlighted the challenges faced by the Fed in balancing its dual mandate of inflation and employment, describing the current monetary policy environment as difficult [1] - She noted that while recent economic performance seems unaffected by Fed policies, service inflation is concerning, and upcoming tariffs may further elevate inflation rates early next year [1] - Cook made a seemingly contradictory assessment of the current policy stance, stating that monetary policy is nearly non-restrictive, yet there is a need to maintain some degree of tightening to alleviate inflation pressures [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Response - Cook indicated that the recent rise in neutral interest rates suggests that even if nominal rates remain unchanged, the actual policy stance could become more accommodative [1] - Regarding the dollar's performance, she reassured that the recent weakening of the dollar is not alarming, as it is a correction from an extremely strong position, bringing it closer to its theoretical fair value [1] Group 3: Employment and Technological Impact - On the employment front, Cook described the current job market as seemingly balanced but still concerning, with the unemployment rate near its highest level and a softening job market posing challenges for the Fed's employment mandate [2] - She reiterated the importance of the Fed's independence in achieving employment and inflation goals, asserting that political factors do not influence monetary policy decisions [2] - Cook expressed caution regarding the impact of emerging technologies, stating it is premature to assess the effects of artificial intelligence, suggesting that time will reveal whether valuations of AI companies are justified [2]