特朗普：如果不是鲍威尔，美联储现在的利率水平可能只有2%。 来源：滚动播报 ...

美联储戴利：美联储利率降至 3%的中性水平无法解决住房可负担性危机。 来源：滚动播报 ...

| Mile | > 国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月24日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属延续强势。鲍威尔演讲中指出政策利率仍然略带限制性，强调政策将根据教据和经济前景灵活调 整。地缘博弈局面难解,美国总统特朗普称如果俄罗斯不愿达成协议,已准备好加征关税。后续关注美国政 府停摆、美联储独立性等问题的演绎,贵金属偏强趋势未改但短期波动可能加剧。 ★美联储主席鲍威尔:政策利率仍然略带限制性,但使美联储能够更好地应对潜在的经济进展;预计关税将 是一次性传导效应；决策"绝不会基于政治因素"。"美联储传声简"指出，鲍威尔比番言论表明其认为利 率仍偏紧缩，或为进一步降息打开空间。美联储古尔斯比：目前没有考虑降息50个基点。最终美联储利率可 能会稳定 ...

钛媒体App 9月23日消息，美联储古尔斯比表示，最终美联储利率可能会稳定在3%左右，通货膨胀率会 回落到2%，对此感到满意。（广角观察） ...

白宫贸易顾问纳瓦罗称，美联储利率至少比正常水平高了100个基点。 ...

特朗普谈美联储：利率行动总是迟到。美国股市处于历史最佳水平。通胀下降，股市上涨。共和党人将 团结一致以避免因预算问题导致政府停摆。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank's interest rate strategists argue that U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen's assertion regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rates being over one percentage point higher than appropriate levels is incorrect [1] Group 1 - Treasury Secretary Yellen previously stated that "any model" suggests interest rates should be 150 to 175 basis points lower, but efforts to find supporting models have been unsuccessful [1] - The Deutsche Bank team, led by former Federal Reserve economist Matthew Raskin, claims that the rules used by the Federal Reserve in its semi-annual monetary policy report do not clearly indicate a need for rate cuts, let alone cuts of 150 to 175 basis points [1] - The current federal funds rate is within a relatively narrow range of approximately 4% to 4.65%, suggesting that a 25 basis point cut may be reasonable [1]

Core Viewpoint - Trump expressed willingness to "immediately fire" Federal Reserve Chairman Powell but later indicated that Powell is "very likely" to remain in his position, suggesting a conflict between his criticism of high interest rates and the potential market disruption from such a dismissal [1]. Summary by Relevant Categories Federal Reserve - Trump criticized the Federal Reserve for maintaining "too high" interest rates, indicating dissatisfaction with current monetary policy [1]. - Despite his earlier comments about firing Powell, Trump acknowledged that such an action could "disrupt the market," reflecting the complexities of monetary policy and its impact on financial stability [1]. Market Implications - The potential for Powell to remain in his role suggests continuity in the Federal Reserve's approach to interest rates, which may influence market expectations and investor sentiment [1].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced to maintain interest rates unchanged and has no immediate plans for rate cuts, leading to a rise in the US dollar index which pressured gold prices down to around 3268 [2][4] - Trade negotiations have extended with Mexico for an additional 90 days, while agreements have been reached with other trade partners, resulting in a decrease in overall market risk aversion as tariffs are implemented [4] - Technical analysis indicates that after a sharp decline, gold showed signs of recovery but faced resistance around 3314, suggesting a short-term bearish trend with key support levels at 3270/66 [4] Group 2 - The US Energy Information Administration reported that US crude oil production reached a record high of 13.49 million barrels per day in May [6] - As of July 25, US crude oil inventories increased by 7.7 million barrels to 426.7 million barrels, influenced by a decline in exports and upcoming OPEC+ production increases, indicating a loose supply-demand balance in the market [6] - Technical outlook for crude oil suggests a bearish sentiment, with recommendations to sell on rebounds around 69.6, targeting levels of 68/67 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision as of July 30 remains unchanged at a lower limit of 4.25%, aligning with market expectations and previous values [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve has set the lower limit of the interest rate at 4.25%, which is consistent with both market expectations and the prior rate [1]