Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's market intelligence team reports that the US stock market may experience a mild decline next week, but is expected to accelerate towards 7000 points before November [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Categories Market Outlook - Analysts indicate concerns such as seasonal weakness, excessive stock market rebound, prolonged market stability without correction, overheated retail investor sentiment, and the digestion of Federal Reserve easing expectations may exert short-term downward pressure on the market [1][2]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the likelihood of further increases in the US stock market from now until the end of the year is greater than the likelihood of declines [1][2]. - The team maintains a "tactically bullish" stance and recommends investors to buy on dips before the end of the year [1][2].

未来一周，美国将公布议息会议前最后一项物价指标，该数据或将影响未来的政策预期，进而对风险偏 好产生冲击，对于权重科技股的走势影响尤为重要。 9月降息几成定局 上周美国关键经济数据主要围绕就业市场展开，最先公布的美国7月末职位空缺下降幅度超过预期，跌 至10个月低位，ADP就业人口新增也大幅减少，显示劳动力市场状况趋于降温。 最新公布的政府非农就业报告进一步显示了就业环境的脆弱性，上月美国仅新增就业岗位2.2万个，失 业率升至近四年来的最高点。由于销售疲软以及对特朗普政府关税政策将带来多大成本的不确定性，企 业招聘变得更加谨慎。 牛津经济研究院高级经济学家施瓦茨（Bob Schwartz）在接受第一财经记者采访时表示，经济停滞特征 越发显著，就业增长远低于预期，"尽管外界此次未像7月那样，被前几个月就业数据大幅下修打个措手 不及，但就业增长放缓的趋势已十分明显。"此外，本月数据还包含小幅下修，6月非农就业人数如今被 修正为2022年12月以来首次下降。 连续四份就业报告表现不佳，几乎已确定美联储在两周后再次开会时会降低利率。伦敦证券交易所 （LSEG）数据显示，目前市场已完全消化9月降息25个基点的可能性，并预 ...

Core Viewpoint - Weak non-farm payroll data may act as a catalyst for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, putting downward pressure on the US dollar while potentially supporting US stocks. Conversely, strong non-farm data could undermine rate cut expectations, leading to market volatility [1]. Summary by Categories Non-Farm Payroll Performance - Non-farm payroll additions below 75,000 are expected to strengthen the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut, with a potential increase to 50 basis points [2]. - An unemployment rate above 4.3% would reinforce the expectation of a 25 basis point cut, while a rate below 4.3% would weaken this expectation [2]. - Year-over-year average hourly earnings growth below 3.7% would support the case for a 25 basis point cut, while stronger growth would diminish rate cut expectations [2]. Impact on the US Dollar - A weak non-farm report would lead to a bearish outlook for the US dollar, while a strong report would result in a bullish sentiment [2]. - The dollar is expected to resume a downward trend with weak data, while strong data may lead to a consolidation phase [2]. Impact on US Stocks - A weak non-farm report is likely to boost stock prices due to lowered rate expectations, while strong data may lead to a bearish outlook for stocks [4]. - The market reaction to a weak report could result in a slight increase in stock prices, while strong data may cause a decline [4]. Impact on Gold - Weak non-farm data is expected to drive gold prices higher, while strong data could lead to a bearish sentiment for gold [4]. - A weak report may push gold prices to new highs, while a strong report could result in a slight decrease in gold prices [4].

Group 1 - The hiring pace in the U.S. slowed down in August, indicating a weakening labor demand [1][2] - ADP reported an increase of 54,000 jobs in the private sector for August, which is about half of the previous month's increase and significantly below market expectations [1] - The construction sector added 16,000 jobs in August, while manufacturing and trade/transportation/utilities sectors saw job losses of 7,000 and 17,000 respectively [1] Group 2 - Challenger reported that U.S. companies announced only 1,494 new jobs in August, the lowest level for that month since 2009 [2] - Year-to-date, companies have announced 892,362 layoffs, the highest for the same period since 2020, with retail being heavily impacted [2] - The pharmaceutical sector announced 19,112 layoffs in August due to increased competition and a focus on high-margin products [2] Group 3 - The slowdown in hiring may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations, potentially leading to a more dovish stance if the labor market remains weak [3]

Market Performance - The Nasdaq index rose over 1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.05% and the S&P 500 increased by 0.51% [2] - Major U.S. tech stocks saw significant gains, with Alphabet (Google) rising over 9% and reaching a record high, while Apple increased by nearly 4% [4] - The technology sector's seven giants index rose by 2.01% [4] - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed results, with Huya rising over 7% [4] Commodity Prices - Gold prices reached historical highs, with London spot gold hitting $3,578.375 per ounce and COMEX gold futures reaching $3,640.1 per ounce [6] - The price of international crude oil futures fell by over 2%, influenced by an unexpected increase in U.S. API crude oil inventories by 622,000 barrels, contrary to market expectations of a decrease of 3.4 million barrels [8] European Market - All three major European stock indices closed higher, with Germany's DAX up 0.46%, France's CAC40 up 0.86%, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.67% [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has opened the door for potential interest rate cuts, suggesting that changes in risk balance may warrant adjustments in monetary policy [1] - The upcoming economic data, particularly the August non-farm payroll and Consumer Price Index (CPI), are critical for the Fed's decision-making process regarding interest rates [2] - Despite Powell's statements, the market remains cautious, and any interest rate cuts may not lead to a significantly dovish stance from the Fed, as concerns about inflation persist [1][2] Group 2 - The August non-farm payroll data is expected to be a key driver for the Fed's decision on rate cuts, with historical trends indicating low job growth during this month [2] - The CPI has shown a rebound, rising from 2.3% in April to 2.7% in July, and further increases could lead the Fed to adopt a more conservative approach in its September meeting [2] - Market reactions to economic data are anticipated to influence the performance of the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and stock markets, with potential implications for gold and cryptocurrency investments [3]

Core Viewpoint - The expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September has significantly increased following Chairman Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference, leading to positive reactions in global financial markets [1][2]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - Current market expectations indicate an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, up from 75% a week prior. Additionally, there is an 83.9% probability that the Fed will implement at least two rate cuts this year [3]. Historical Performance of the S&P 500 - Historical data shows that after the Fed pauses for 5 to 12 months and then resumes rate cuts, the S&P 500 index has averaged a 12.9% increase over the following year, with 10 out of 11 instances resulting in gains [2][1]. Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - Investor sentiment has shifted from questioning whether the Fed will cut rates to focusing on the frequency and pace of potential cuts. This change in focus is attributed to Powell's indication that a rate cut may be reasonable due to concerns about the labor market [2][5]. Impact on Stock Market Sectors - Analysts predict that if the Fed cuts rates in September, the stock market rally may extend beyond large-cap tech stocks, as lower rates typically encourage investors to seek higher returns along the risk curve. Small-cap stocks, which are more sensitive to borrowing costs, may particularly benefit from this environment [6][5].

Market Performance - On August 11, US stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 0.45%, the S&P 500 down by 0.25%, and the Nasdaq decreasing by 0.3% [1][3]. - Major technology stocks mostly declined, with the US Tech Giants Index dropping by 0.22%. Notable individual stock movements included Apple down over 0.8%, while Tesla rose over 2.8% for a four-day increase [5]. Commodity Market - International precious metal futures generally fell, with COMEX gold futures main contract dropping by 2.8% to $3393.7 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures down by 2.33% to $37.645 per ounce [2][6]. - Oil prices saw a slight increase, with light crude oil futures for September rising by 8 cents to $63.96 per barrel, a 0.13% increase, and Brent crude oil for October up by 4 cents to $66.63 per barrel, a 0.06% increase [6]. Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.29%, with notable declines in popular Chinese stocks such as QuantumScape and Ascentage Pharma, which dropped over 4%. However, Xpeng Motors saw an increase of nearly 6% [6]. Geopolitical Developments - President Trump announced a "test meeting" with President Putin scheduled for August 15 in Alaska, suggesting that the outcome could be either positive or negative, but expressing hope for constructive dialogue [2][7]. - Trump indicated that he hopes to arrange a meeting between Ukrainian President Zelensky and Putin following the Alaska meeting, with the possibility of a trilateral meeting involving the US, Russia, and Ukraine [7][8].

Core Insights - Recent data indicates signs of weakening in the US economy, with new tariff policies set to impact economic growth and inflation [1] - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is observed at 94.4%, suggesting potential monetary easing in response to economic pressures [1] - The US stock market experienced a volatile rebound, with the Nasdaq reaching a new historical high, raising questions about future performance amid tariff implementation and earnings reports [1] Economic Indicators - The new tariff pressures are expected to moderately elevate inflation, which may suppress economic vitality in the US [1] - There is an increasing pressure for economic slowdown, leading to expectations that the Federal Reserve may implement further rate cuts within the year [1] Market Outlook - The earnings season for US stocks is anticipated to be characterized by high-level fluctuations, with three key scenarios to monitor as the market reacts to new economic data and tariff impacts [1]

Group 1 - The adjustment of the U.S. non-farm payroll data has significantly impacted market expectations, indicating a shift in economic outlook [10] - Understanding the future trajectory of the U.S. economy is crucial, with discussions on whether a recession can be avoided [10] - Following a substantial correction in the U.S. stock market, there are considerations on whether this presents a good buying opportunity [10] Group 2 - Future trends in the U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, and gold prices are essential for investment strategies [10]