Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) held a work meeting on January 5-6, 2026, to summarize 2025's work, analyze the current situation, and plan for the "14th Five-Year" reform and development [1][2] Group 1: Legislative and Regulatory Focus - The meeting emphasized accelerating important legislative reforms, including the laws on the PBOC, financial stability, and commercial banks [1] - Key legislative projects for 2026 include constructing a financial statistical system and standard that aligns with a modern central banking system [2] - Strengthening regulations on virtual currency transactions and enhancing anti-money laundering measures were highlighted as critical areas of focus [1][2] Group 2: Financial Management and Support Policies - The PBOC plans to implement a one-time personal credit repair policy to support individuals in rebuilding their credit efficiently [1][2] - Continuous improvement of the social credit system and enhancing payment services for elderly individuals and foreign nationals in China are part of the agenda [2] - The meeting also discussed the importance of cash supply assurance and optimizing the management system for digital currency [1]

经济观察网2026年中国人民银行工作会议1月5日—6日召开。会议强调，2026年重点抓好以下工作：进 一步提升金融管理和服务能力。推动重点立法修法项目。研究构建与现代中央银行制度相匹配的金融统 计制度和标准体系，持续做好金融"五篇大文章"、融资平台债务等重点领域统计监测。巩固现金使用环 境建设工作成效。持续提升经理国库管理质效。稳妥实施好一次性个人信用修复政策。进一步健全社会 征信体系。常态长效优化老年人、外籍来华人员支付服务。从严实施支付机构穿透式监管和支付业务功 能监管。强化虚拟货币监管，持续打击相关违法犯罪活动。深化科技管理与创新应用。稳步发展数字人 民币。进一步规范内部管理，提升内部审计监督、离退休干部、后勤保障、集中采购和安全保卫等工作 水平。发挥工会、共青团等群团组织凝心聚力作用。 ...

闪崩真相：不是崩盘，是小众交易对的"流动性乌龙" 很多人看到"2.4万美元"的截图就慌了，但其实这场"闪崩"根本不是比特币全市场崩盘，而是一场局限在单一交易对的技术性异动。根据币安平台数据和赵 长鹏的官方回应，真相很明确： - 波动只发生在BTC/USD1这个小众交易对，币安的BTC/USDT、Coinbase等其他主流交易对价格始终稳定在8.64万美元以上，没受任何影响 ； - USD1是新推出的稳定币，交易量本就低，再叠加圣诞假期大家都在过节，交易者离场、做市商休息，订单簿里的买盘变得特别稀疏，相当于"一推就倒" ； 2025比特币闪崩惊魂！2.4万美元是乌龙？赵长鹏揭秘流动性陷阱 深夜被炒币的朋友@爆手机，群里满屏都是"比特币崩到2.4万了"的截图，有人慌着割肉，有人喊着"抄底"，甚至还有人开始算自己的合约亏了多少——2025 年圣诞夜这场比特币"闪崩"，把全网炒币人都吓懵了。从8.76万美元瞬间暴跌超70%，数秒后又回弹到8.7万美元附近，这波操作比过山车还刺激。 不少人以为"币圈要凉"，直到币安创始人赵长鹏紧急发文解释真相，大家才发现原来是场"流动性乌龙"。但这场虚惊背后，不仅暴露了币圈的隐形风险， ...

业内专家表示,虚拟货币交易炒作活动绝非法外之地,无论其形态如何演变,维护金融安全稳定、保护 人民财产安全、促进金融健康发展的监管原则不会改变。对于每个人而言,关键在于增强风险意识,认清 虚拟货币炒作的本源和风险,远离各类非法金融活动。 近期,中国人民银行召开打击虚拟货币交易炒作工作协调机制会议,强调持续打击虚拟货币相关非法 金融活动。监管部门在会上明确指出,虚拟货币不具有与法定货币等同的法律地位,不具有法偿性,不应且 不能作为货币在市场上流通使用。这释放出清晰而强烈的信号:无论虚拟货币如何包装和创新,其潜在的 金融风险都已受到监管部门高度关注,相关监管篱笆正越扎越紧。 [责任编辑：李佳慧] 自2013年比特币兴起以来,监管部门多次发布通知提示虚拟货币风险。今年以来,虚拟货币的新动向 推动监管政策进一步细化,此时再度强调持续打击,其必要性和紧迫性不言而喻。 理解当前监管持续发力,要先了解虚拟货币领域现状如何。表面上看,比特币等主要虚拟货币的价格 依然延续剧烈波动特性,投机风险显著。而更深层次的风险则隐藏在那些看似更"安全"的角落,比如有的 虚拟货币存在背后储备资产不透明、价值不足,好比一家银行声称储户存入多少现 ...

11月底，一场由十三个核心部门参与的会议明确指出，包括稳定币在内的虚拟货币相关业务属于非法金融活动。这类虚拟货币无法满足客户身份识别和反洗 钱要求，已成为洗钱、诈骗的新工具。 政策转向 虚拟货币监管新阶段的开始，源于一场由金融管理部门牵头、多部门参与的专项会议。这场会议对虚拟货币，特别是稳定币的性质做出了前所未有的明确界 定。 稳定币作为一种试图锚定法定货币价值的虚拟货币，其流通规模已突破1840亿美元。会议直指其核心缺陷：无法有效满足客户身份识别、反洗钱等基本合规 要求。 这一表态并非突然之举，而是监管逻辑的延续和强化。自2013年将比特币定义为"特定虚拟商品"以来，中国对虚拟货币的监管持续收紧。 风险识别 此次监管升级主要针对三大风险。虚拟货币市场本身波动剧烈，仅2025年10月至11月，比特币价格就从12.6万美元暴跌至8.2万美元，导致大量投资者爆仓。 稳定币市场快速扩张，其发行机制和储备金透明度长期受到质疑。技术特性使稳定币极易被用于非法活动，它的交易匿名性强、地址可随意生成，缺乏有效 的客户身份识别入口。 2025年1月至10月，全国已查处47起稳定币相关诈骗案件，涉案金额高达56亿元。虚拟货币已 ...

Market Overview - Bitcoin experienced significant volatility in early December, dropping below $85,000 on December 1 with a maximum daily decline exceeding 7%, before rebounding above $90,000 on December 2, closing at $93,208.4, a 7.25% increase within 24 hours [2][3] - Over 120,000 traders faced liquidation in the last 24 hours, with total liquidations amounting to approximately $500 million [2] Price Volatility Factors - The price of Bitcoin is heavily influenced by market sentiment, lacking backing from national credit or actual cash flow, leading to extreme price fluctuations due to policy changes, technical vulnerabilities, or market emotions [2] - The high leverage trading structure within the Bitcoin ecosystem can trigger a "death spiral" of price drops and liquidations from minor price changes [2] - Bitcoin's price has seen over 50 instances of declines exceeding 10% since 2010, with an average drop of 30% during these corrections [3] Market Dynamics - The cryptocurrency market is characterized by insufficient depth and weak liquidity, making it susceptible to significant price swings from large trades or sudden shifts in sentiment [4] - Factors contributing to the recent downturn include persistent outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, selling by large investors, and tightening domestic policies [4] - Data indicates that BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $2.34 billion in November, with trading volumes on centralized exchanges dropping to $1.59 trillion, a 26.7% decline from October [4] Regulatory Environment - The Chinese government continues to enforce strict regulations against cryptocurrency trading, emphasizing that virtual currencies do not hold the same legal status as fiat currencies and are considered illegal financial activities [6] - Legal experts warn that engaging in cryptocurrency investments poses legal risks, as activities related to virtual currencies may be deemed invalid under civil law [6] Future Outlook - Experts express skepticism about Bitcoin's future, suggesting it cannot replace fiat currencies and lacks intrinsic value as an investment asset [5] - The ongoing tightening of regulations by major economies may signal the end of the "currency experiment" that Bitcoin represents, with the potential for significant market adjustments [5][9] - The future of stablecoins is contingent on the speed and rigor of regulatory compliance, with products relying heavily on high leverage facing increased scrutiny [9]

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant downward pressure due to multiple factors, including macroeconomic policy expectations, institutional selling, and increased regulatory scrutiny, leading to a decline in both cryptocurrency prices and related stocks in A-shares and Hong Kong markets [1][2][5][6]. Market Performance - As of December 2, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks related to cryptocurrency continued to decline, with notable drops in companies like Jingbeifang, Hailian Jinhui, and Cuiwei Co., each down approximately 1% [1]. - The cryptocurrency market has seen Bitcoin drop to a low of $84,000, a nearly 30% decrease from its peak of $126,251 in early October, while Ethereum experienced a drop exceeding 10% on December 1 [1][2]. Institutional Behavior - Institutional investors have been a core factor in the recent market adjustment, with over $20 billion in cryptocurrency assets sold since September [3]. - The end of the year has prompted many institutions to lock in profits, leading to increased selling pressure and a slowdown in ETF fund inflows, which are critical indicators of institutional risk appetite [3][5]. Leverage and Market Dynamics - The December 1 drop was characterized by a significant leverage liquidation effect, with over 270,000 contracts forcibly liquidated, amounting to nearly $985 million, predominantly affecting long positions [2]. - The market structure has shown that once macro expectations are re-evaluated, the speed of liquidation can accelerate, leading to broader market declines [2][4]. Regulatory Impact - Recent regulatory developments in China have intensified scrutiny on virtual currencies, particularly stablecoins, which are now included in regulatory frameworks due to concerns over their use in illicit activities [6]. - Experts believe that the regulatory stance reflects ongoing concerns about potential risks in the cryptocurrency sector, rather than a tightening of existing policies [6][7]. Macroeconomic Factors - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting has created uncertainty, with officials emphasizing persistent inflation and the need for restrictive monetary policy, dampening expectations for interest rate cuts [5]. - The tightening of dollar liquidity and the weakening of risk asset sentiment have further pressured the cryptocurrency market, which is sensitive to interest rate expectations [5].

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency landscape is shifting as some Western countries are easing restrictions on virtual currencies to gain an advantage in the digital finance sector [1][19]. Regulatory Actions - A meeting led by the central bank on November 28 involved 13 key departments, signaling a strong commitment to combat illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies [1][3]. - The meeting emphasized the need for a multi-departmental approach to address the cross-regional and cross-sector risks associated with cryptocurrency trading [7][9]. Focus on Stablecoins - Stablecoins have been identified as a primary target for regulatory scrutiny due to their perceived safety and potential use in illegal activities [8][13]. - The lack of stringent identity verification processes in stablecoin transactions increases the risk of money laundering and fraud [11][13]. International Context - The global financial community is increasingly cautious about stablecoins, with concerns about their compliance with anti-money laundering standards [15][17]. - China's strict regulation of stablecoins aligns with international regulatory consensus and aims to protect national financial security [17][19]. Innovation vs. Regulation - China is pursuing a dual-track approach, maintaining strict regulations on virtual currencies while promoting the pilot and application of the digital yuan [21][23]. - The regulatory framework in Hong Kong allows for compliant stablecoin operations, showcasing a balance between risk management and innovation [21][23]. Investor Implications - The joint statement from the 13 departments serves as a clear warning to investors that participation in virtual currency activities may lead to financial losses and legal consequences [25]. Future Outlook - China is committed to integrating technological innovation within the framework of national sovereignty, indicating a strategic approach to the evolving global financial landscape [26].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has reinforced its regulatory stance on stablecoins, categorizing them as a form of virtual currency that does not hold the same legal status as fiat currency and is subject to strict regulations against illegal financial activities [1][15][23]. Regulatory Evolution - China's regulatory approach to virtual currencies and stablecoins has been gradually deepening and improving, forming a dynamic governance system that adapts to market developments [3][17]. - The regulatory history dates back to 2013, with various government bodies consistently asserting that virtual currencies do not have the same legal status as fiat currency [3][17]. - Key regulatory milestones include the 2021 notice that elevated the regulatory framework, leading to the closure of domestic virtual currency trading platforms [3][17]. Recent Developments - The recent meeting emphasized the risks associated with stablecoins, including their potential use in money laundering and fraud, and the inability to meet customer identification and anti-money laundering requirements [1][15][22]. - The introduction of Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation on August 1, 2025, has drawn attention to the need for a clear regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers [4][19]. Risk Considerations - Stablecoins are seen as high-risk due to their potential for misuse in illegal financial activities, with experts highlighting their anonymity and lack of transparency as significant concerns [22][26]. - The PBOC's classification of stablecoins as virtual currencies aims to prevent them from challenging the status of the digital yuan and to maintain the stability of the financial system [20][23]. Future Implications - The regulatory tightening is expected to shrink the operational space for stablecoins within China, with activities related to issuance, promotion, and trading being classified as illegal financial activities [11][24]. - The anticipated shift in stablecoin technology and liquidity towards offshore and regional financial centers is likely, as domestic regulations become more stringent [24]. - Future regulatory measures may focus on enhancing cooperation among various regulatory bodies and improving technological capabilities to combat illegal activities effectively [26].

Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the articles is the Chinese government's continued strict stance against virtual currencies, including stablecoins, emphasizing the need to combat illegal financial activities associated with them and protect citizens' financial security [1][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions and Implications - The People's Bank of China has reiterated its commitment to prohibiting virtual currencies and will continue to crack down on illegal financial activities related to them [1]. - Stablecoins are classified as a form of virtual currency and are currently unable to meet requirements for customer identity verification and anti-money laundering, posing risks of being used for illegal activities such as money laundering and fraud [1][2]. - The international financial community is increasingly recognizing the systemic risks posed by stablecoins, particularly in the context of the U.S. using them to reinforce the dollar's global dominance [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Risks - The market for stablecoins is expanding rapidly, with projections indicating that by the end of 2028, the issuance of dollar stablecoins could reach $2 trillion, creating an additional $1.6 trillion demand for U.S. short-term government bonds [2]. - The significant growth in stablecoin supply may lead to outflows from retail bank deposits, putting pressure on banks and potentially resulting in a $6.6 trillion deposit diversion in the U.S. banking sector [2]. - The largest dollar stablecoins hold substantial amounts of U.S. short-term government bonds, and a potential run on these stablecoins could trigger a sell-off of these assets, leading to broader financial market risks [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Speculation - The instability of stablecoins is increasing, as evidenced by the recent significant de-pegging of USDe, which is not backed by fiat or hard assets but rather by users collateralizing their crypto assets [3]. - Speculative activities in the cryptocurrency market are being fueled by optimism in the U.S. stock market driven by AI advancements, creating a dual risk where concerns over an AI bubble could lead to a sell-off in crypto assets [3]. - The interconnectedness of AI infrastructure financing and cryptocurrency speculation presents substantial financial risks, particularly in a volatile market environment [3].