Core Viewpoint - The central government is leveraging long-term special bonds to alleviate local fiscal burdens, with a significant portion of the funds allocated for local government use [3][4]. Group 1: Central Government Budget and Special Bonds - In the 2026 central government budget, 1.3 trillion yuan of long-term special bonds will be issued, with 240 billion yuan (18%) allocated for central government spending and 1.06 trillion yuan (82%) for transfers to local governments [3][5]. - The issuance of long-term special bonds began in 2024, with 1 trillion yuan in 2024, 1.3 trillion yuan in 2025, and a planned 1.3 trillion yuan in 2026, primarily aimed at supporting major strategic implementations and key areas [3][4]. Group 2: Allocation and Usage of Funds - For the 2026 budget, 800 billion yuan is designated for "two major" constructions, 250 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement, and 200 billion yuan for large-scale equipment updates, with 50 billion yuan's purpose still unclear [5][6]. - The 50 billion yuan may be used for newly established fiscal-financial collaborative funds to promote domestic demand, as indicated in the government's work report [6][7]. Group 3: Economic Context and Policy Measures - The Minister of Finance highlighted the ongoing economic challenges, particularly the imbalance between strong supply and weak demand, leading to insufficient consumer vitality and weak private investment growth [7]. - A special fund of 100 billion yuan has been allocated to support domestic demand through various financial measures, aiming to leverage this funding to generate a larger impact on credit availability [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing scale of China's general public budget expenditure, which is set to exceed 30 trillion yuan for the first time this year, while highlighting the historical trend of actual fiscal expenditures being lower than budgeted amounts, indicating insufficient fiscal spending efforts [1][2]. General Public Budget Expenditure - Since 2020, the execution of general public budget expenditures has consistently been below budgeted amounts, with notable discrepancies observed in 2020 and 2021 where fiscal revenues exceeded expectations but expenditures did not [2][4]. - The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the downturn in the real estate sector have significantly contributed to the decline in fiscal revenue growth, which is a key factor in the lower-than-expected actual expenditures [4]. General Public Budget Revenue - Starting from 2022, the execution of general public budget revenues has also fallen short of budgeted figures, primarily due to lower-than-expected tax revenues, although non-tax revenues have somewhat compensated for this shortfall [5]. - In 2020, the budgeted general public budget revenue decreased by 5.3% compared to the previous year, while the actual execution showed a smaller decline of 3.9% [5]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Discrepancies - The discrepancies between budgeted and actual fiscal revenues and expenditures have been consistent, with significant gaps noted in 2022 and 2023, and projections for 2024 and 2025 indicating similar trends [7][15]. - The article emphasizes that the fiscal spending shortfall is influenced by both lower-than-expected fiscal revenues and the strategic management of fiscal resources across different years [15]. Broader Fiscal Context - The article highlights the complexity of China's fiscal accounting, which includes various funds and budget types, indicating that the fiscal deficit is not merely the difference between revenues and expenditures but also involves transfers and carryover funds [9][10]. - The analysis of fiscal support measures reveals that various types of fiscal resources, including special bonds and local government debt, play a crucial role in providing financial support beyond the statutory deficit [16][18]. Fiscal Policy Effectiveness - The effectiveness of fiscal policies is discussed, noting that simply aggregating fiscal resources may not fully reflect the policy impact, and that the design and efficiency of fiscal resource utilization are critical for achieving desired economic outcomes [19]. - The article suggests that while fiscal spending has increased, it is essential to focus on improving the quality and efficiency of expenditures rather than merely expanding the scale of spending [25].

Core Viewpoint - China plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special government bonds in 2023 to support economic stability and expand domestic demand, with funds allocated for major strategic projects and equipment upgrades [2]. Group 1: Bond Issuance and Allocation - The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds will include 800 billion yuan for major strategic projects and 450 billion yuan for equipment upgrades and consumption replacement policies [2]. - An additional 500 billion yuan from the bond issuance will be allocated for other areas, potentially including financial expenditures as indicated by recent government notifications [2]. Group 2: Financial Expenditures - The financial expenditures from the ultra-long-term special government bonds will cover interest subsidies, capital injections for financial institutions, risk compensation, and other financial expenses [3]. - This financial spending aligns with the broader fiscal and financial policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [4]. Group 3: Fiscal and Financial Coordination - The government has established a 100 billion yuan special fund for fiscal and financial coordination to support domestic demand, utilizing tools such as loan interest subsidies and risk compensation [5]. - The Minister of Finance highlighted the need to address the imbalance between strong supply and weak demand, emphasizing the importance of coordinated policies to mobilize social resources towards key areas of domestic demand expansion [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a strong domestic market as a key advantage for the economy, highlighting the government's commitment to expanding domestic demand as a primary task in the work report for the year [3]. Group 1: Stimulating Resident Consumption - In 2025, consumer spending is expected to contribute over 50% to economic growth, reaching 52% [4]. - The government aims to boost consumption by enhancing residents' internal motivation and implementing consumption policies, addressing the "strong supply, weak demand" issue [4]. - Specific measures include increasing income to expand demand, improving quality of products and services, and removing consumption barriers [4]. - A new plan for increasing urban and rural residents' income has been introduced, focusing on low-income groups and enhancing social security systems [4]. Group 2: Investment Stabilization - The government aims to stabilize investment by focusing on new productive forces, new urbanization, and overall human development [8]. - A budget of 755 billion yuan is planned for central investment, along with 800 billion yuan in special bonds for construction projects [8]. - Policies will be implemented to encourage private investment in high-tech and modern service sectors, ensuring fair competition and protection of rights [8][9]. - The government plans to improve infrastructure, including water, electricity, and logistics networks, with an estimated investment exceeding 7 trillion yuan [9][10]. Group 3: Major Projects and Long-term Planning - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines 109 major projects that will support effective investment, balancing immediate and long-term needs [10]. - Strategic projects include renewable energy bases and significant transportation infrastructure, aimed at meeting future demands [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly, with an increase in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis [2]. - The copper concentrate TC spot index weakened again, and the supply of copper ore remained tight, with a strong raw - material cost support logic [2]. - The smelters resumed work and production, and the domestic refined copper supply was expected to increase. The downstream demand was expected to rise with the arrival of the traditional consumption season, and the copper price correction also boosted the downstream's willingness to replenish stocks at low prices [2]. - Due to the difference in the resumption rhythm of supply and demand, the copper industry inventory continued to accumulate. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper were in a stage of rising supply and demand and inventory accumulation, with an overall positive industry outlook [2]. - In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.36, a decrease of 0.0018 from the previous period, indicating a bullish sentiment, and the implied volatility decreased slightly [2]. - Technically, the 60 - minute MACD had both lines below the 0 - axis and the green bar converging. It was recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 100,190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 860 yuan/ton; the LME 3 - month copper price was 12,733.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 128.5 dollars/ton [2]. - The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was - 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 199,857 lots, an increase of 4,175 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 72,886 lots, an increase of 2,999 lots; the LME copper inventory was 284,325 tons, an increase of 2,125 tons [2]. - The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 425,145 tons (weekly), an increase of 33,616 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants were 11,475 tons, a decrease of 3,200 tons [2]. - The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 319,087 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons; the COMEX copper inventory was 597,938 short - tons, a decrease of 1,724 short - tons [2] 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 copper spot price was 99,480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,485 yuan/ton; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price was 100,375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 790 yuan/ton [2]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 43 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 44 dollars/ton, an increase of 3 dollars/ton [2]. - The basis of the CU main contract was - 710 yuan/ton, a decrease of 625 yuan/ton; the LME copper cash - 3 months spread was - 44.86 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.3 dollars/ton [2]. - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 270.43 million tons (monthly), an increase of 17.8 million tons; the domestic copper smelter's rough - smelting fee (TC) was - 56.05 dollars/thousand tons, a decrease of 5.62 dollars/thousand tons [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 90,660 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 800 yuan/metal ton; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan was 91,360 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 800 yuan/metal ton [2]. - The processing fee for blister copper in the south was 2,300 yuan/ton (weekly), a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the processing fee for blister copper in the north was 1,800 yuan/ton (weekly), a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [2]. - The production of refined copper was 132.6 million tons (monthly), an increase of 9 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 440,000 tons (monthly), an increase of 10,000 tons [2] 3.4产业情况 - The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons (weekly), an increase of 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 67,740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton [2]. - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 1,080 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 82,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton [2] 3.5下游及应用 - The production of copper products was 222.91 million tons (monthly), an increase of 0.31 million tons; the cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 639.502 billion yuan (monthly), an increase of 79.113 billion yuan [2]. - The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 8,278.814 billion yuan (monthly), an increase of 41.9724 billion yuan; the monthly production of integrated circuits was 4,807,345,000 pieces, an increase of 415,345,000 pieces [2] 3.6期权情况 - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 34.81%, a decrease of 4.13 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 36.05%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV was 22.55%, a decrease of 0.0053 percentage points; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.36, a decrease of 0.0018 [2] 3.7行业消息 - In February, the average price cut of new new - energy vehicles was 48,000 yuan, with a price - cut intensity of 13.5%; the average price cut of new conventional fuel vehicles was 46,000 yuan, with a price - cut intensity of 12.5% [2]. - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy this year, using various policy tools such as reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts [2]. - It is expected that this year's GDP increment will exceed 6 trillion yuan, and a national - level merger fund will be established, expected to leverage over 1 trillion yuan of funds [2]. - This year, a more proactive fiscal policy will be continued. The total expenditure, the scale of new government bonds, and the central government's transfer payments to local governments will all reach new highs. A 100 - billion - yuan fiscal - financial policy package to boost domestic demand will be launched, and a 250 - billion - yuan consumer goods trade - in policy will be implemented [2]

Economic Growth Target - The economic growth target for 2026 is set in a range of 4.5% to 5%, with 4.5% being the minimum to ensure achievement and 5% not being a ceiling, indicating potential for higher growth [2][4][3] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy for this year includes a deficit rate of around 4%, with a total deficit scale reaching 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 230 billion yuan from last year [6] - The general public budget expenditure is expected to exceed 30 trillion yuan, marking an increase of approximately 1.27 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [6] Special Funds for Domestic Demand - A special fund of 100 billion yuan is established to promote domestic demand, which is expected to leverage over 1 trillion yuan in domestic consumption through various financial tools [2][9] - The government will continue to support the consumption of durable goods through policies like trade-in programs, focusing on key products that have a broad impact [8][10] Resident Income Growth - Resident income consists of four components: wage income, operating income, property income, and transfer income, with wage income being the primary source [12] - To increase property income, it is essential to enhance financial investment channels and develop capital markets to facilitate asset capitalization [13][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The 2 - month PMI indicators show a mild economy, and the 2026 government work report's economic growth target and deficit rate are in line with market expectations. The stock market (Wande A - share) rose slightly last Friday, and the trading volume shrank. Treasury bond futures showed a sideways movement last Friday, and they may fluctuate in the short - term. [1][2] - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Last Friday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher and fluctuated narrowly throughout the day. The 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2606 rose 0.03%, the 10 - year T2606 remained flat, the 5 - year TF2606 remained flat, and the 2 - year TS2606 fell 0.01%. [1] - Last Friday, Wande A - share opened slightly lower, rose in the morning session, fluctuated sideways in the afternoon, and closed up 0.71% with a trading volume of 2.22 trillion yuan, a decrease from the previous trading day's 2.41 trillion yuan. [2] Important Information - Open market: Last Friday, the central bank conducted 44.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 269 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, resulting in a net withdrawal of 224.2 billion yuan. The central bank also carried out 800 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations, with 1000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases due. [1] - Funding market: Last Friday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funding market rose slightly. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.32%, compared with 1.27% in the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.41%, compared with 1.42% in the previous trading day. [1] - Cash bond market: Last Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield fell 0.54 BP to 1.34%, the 5 - year rose 0.29 BP to 1.53%, the 10 - year rose 0.31 BP to 1.78%, and the 30 - year rose 0.95 BP to 2.28%. [1] - Global manufacturing: In February 2026, the global manufacturing PMI was 51.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the expansion range for two consecutive months. However, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East have brought uncertainties to the global economic recovery. [1] - Fiscal policy: In 2026, the total fiscal expenditure will exceed 30 trillion yuan for the first time, the new government bond scale will reach 11.89 trillion yuan, and the central government's transfer payments to local governments will reach 10.42 trillion yuan. The central government has also arranged 100 billion yuan for a package of fiscal - financial policies to boost domestic demand, and there is a 250 billion yuan consumer goods trade - in policy. [1] - Monetary policy: The central bank will flexibly use multiple monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year, guide and regulate interest rates, and promote the low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost. The central bank will also innovate and launch a "technology board" in the bond market and expand the scale of re - loans from 500 billion yuan to 800 - 1000 billion yuan. [2] - US economic data: In February, the US unemployment rate was 4.4% (estimated 4.3%, previous value 4.3%); in January, retail sales decreased 0.2% month - on - month (estimated - 0.3%, previous value 0%); in February, non - farm payrolls decreased by 92,000 (estimated increase of 55,000, previous value increase of 130,000). [2] - International situation: Mujtaba, the son of Khamenei, was elected the new supreme leader of Iran. Due to the war, oil transportation in the Middle East has been continuously blocked, and major oil - producing countries have announced production cuts, leading to a continuous increase in international oil prices. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The government will implement more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies this year, with policy synergy being a highlight. The capital scale in three aspects has reached new highs, and the central government has arranged 100 billion yuan to launch a package of fiscal - financial cooperation policies to boost domestic demand [18][2][16]. - The Fed's monetary policy outlook faces increased uncertainty due to a weakening labor market and rising geopolitical risks, and there may be a risk of stagflation in the US [33]. - The impact of the Two Sessions on the bond market is generally neutral. The bond market may continue to fluctuate, and future focus should be on changes in risk appetite, market expectations for interest rate cuts, and price recovery [35]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth rate in Q4 2025 slowed to 4.5% year - on - year, down from 4.8% in Q3 2025 and 5.4% in Q4 2024 [1]. - In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, both showing a decline [1]. - In January 2026, the monthly value of social financing scale was 7.2208 trillion yuan, and M2 increased by 9.0% year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The government will continue to implement more active fiscal policies this year, with the total expenditure exceeding 30 trillion yuan, new government bond issuance reaching 11.89 trillion yuan, and central government transfer payments to local governments reaching 10.42 trillion yuan [2][18]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange and Shanghai International Energy Exchange have adjusted trading limits, margin ratios, and handling fees for some futures contracts [3][4]. - A large amount of funds have flowed into oil and gas assets through ETFs and linked funds, but the "return dilution" phenomenon has reappeared [5]. 3.2.2 Metals - On March 8, the retail prices of pure gold jewelry of major domestic brands were around 1,583 - 1,590 yuan per gram, and some brands have announced or plan to raise prices [7]. - As of the end of February 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 3.4278 trillion US dollars, and the central bank's gold reserves increased by 300,000 ounces month - on - month [7]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coking, Steel, and Minerals - The coking coal market in February 2026 showed a weak and volatile trend, and in March, the supply - demand fundamentals improved, but prices may fluctuate rather than rise unilaterally [9]. - Due to the reduction in nickel ore production quotas, Indonesia's nickel processing capacity utilization rate may drop to 70 - 75% in 2026, and nickel ore imports are expected to increase significantly [9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Oil prices will be raised at 24:00 on March 9. Affected by the situation in the Middle East, international crude oil futures prices have reached record weekly highs [9]. - Due to the conflict in Iran, major oil - producing countries have cut production, and the prices of crude oil and natural gas have risen [10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - In February 2026, the sales volume of pig products of three listed pig enterprises decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year performance varied [13]. - Ukraine's grain exports for the 2026/27 season are expected to include 14 million tons of wheat, 25 million tons of corn, and 2.5 million tons of barley [14]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - This week, 277.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 150 billion yuan of 1 - month treasury cash fixed - term deposits will mature in the central bank's open market [15]. - The central bank carried out 44.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases on March 6, with a net withdrawal of 224.2 billion yuan on that day [15]. 3.3.2 Important News - Institutions predict that the Spring Festival effect will drive a significant year - on - year rebound in February's CPI, and rising non - ferrous metal prices will support the increase in PPI [16]. - The central bank will implement moderately loose monetary policies this year, use various policy tools flexibly, and strengthen the synergy of policies. It will also support the capital market and expand the scale of re - loans [16][17]. - The CSRC will deepen the reform of the Growth Enterprise Market and optimize the refinancing mechanism [19]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - The inter - bank bond market in China remained in a consolidation state, with slightly differentiated yields of major interest - rate bonds, and short - term bonds performed better [26]. - The exchange - traded bond market had mixed performances, and the convertible bond index rose [26][27]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 22 points at the 16:30 close on March 9, and the US dollar index fell 0.09% in New York trading [31]. - China's foreign exchange reserves have increased for seven consecutive months, and gold reserves have increased for 16 consecutive months [32]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that there may be five major expected differences in the market, and there is a risk of "insufficient policy momentum" in the second half of the year [33]. - CICC and other institutions believe that the economic growth target in the government work report takes into account long - term sustainability and short - term necessity, and policies focus on both quantity and quality [34]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On March 9, 277 bonds will be listed, 123 bonds will be issued, 99 bonds will make payments, and 479 bonds will repay principal and interest [36]. 3.4 Stock Market Important News - The CSRC will improve the market - stabilizing mechanism, develop diversified equity financing, and support the development of the futures and derivatives market [38]. - The central bank will cooperate with the CSRC to support the capital market and enhance its stability and vitality [38]. - The A - share market fluctuated upward, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.38%, and some sectors such as power grid equipment and medical stocks performing strongly [39].

Group 1: Policy Information - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy this year, using various tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and gradually淡化 the quantitative intermediate targets [2] - The Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy this year, with a 100 - billion - yuan fiscal - financial policy to boost domestic demand and a 250 - billion - yuan consumer goods trade - in policy [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has officially included recycled lead in the futures delivery system, with the PB2703 contract being the first for recycled lead to participate in futures delivery [3] Group 2: Market Data Foreign Exchange and Gold Reserves - As of the end of February 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves were $3.4278 trillion, up $28.7 billion or 0.85% from the end of January, and gold reserves were 74.22 million ounces, up 30,000 ounces month - on - month [3] Commodity Market - Key commodities to focus on are urea, Shanghai copper, fuel oil, crude oil, and plastic [4] - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.09%, precious metals 30.92%, oilseeds 8.10%, non - ferrous metals 25.64%, soft commodities 2.74%, coal - coking and steel ore 9.48%, energy 5.60%, chemicals 11.50%, grains 1.16%, and agricultural products 2.77% [4] Asset Performance - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.38% daily, - 0.93% monthly, and 3.91% yearly; S&P 500 fell 1.33% daily, - 2.02% monthly, and - 1.54% yearly; etc. [6] - Fixed - income: 10 - year Treasury bond futures had 0.00% daily, 0.13% monthly, and 0.63% yearly changes; etc. [6] - Commodity: WTI crude oil rose 13.31% daily, 36.53% monthly, and 59.63% yearly; LME copper fell 0.26% daily, - 3.21% monthly, and rose 2.98% yearly; etc. [6] - Other: US dollar index fell 0.09% daily, rose 1.34% monthly, and 0.70% yearly; CBOE volatility index rose 24.17% daily, 48.49% monthly, and 97.26% yearly [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, after a sharp decline on Tuesday, the stock index showed continuous shrinking - volume oscillations, indicating signs of market stabilization. The Middle - East situation on Monday did not significantly impact the market, but on Tuesday, market risk - aversion sentiment rose, causing a sharp decline in various assets. Only the oil and gas, oil service, and oil transportation sectors in the stock market rose, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices tumbled. After the decline, the market entered a phase of shrinking - volume consolidation, and the stock index rebounded slightly. Investor caution prevailed, and sector profit - taking was evident. Even the affected oil and gas sectors oscillated in the second half of the week [6]. - On Friday night, crude oil prices rose again, and the U.S. stock market declined, which will have a psychological impact on the A - share market at the beginning of next week. However, the market is likely to stabilize next week. Firstly, the sharp decline has already occurred, and the short - selling momentum in the market has been significantly released. Secondly, the limited decline in the U.S. stock market despite the sharp rise in crude oil prices indicates that the market is not overly worried about inflation caused by rising oil prices. The U.S. stock market is approaching oversold territory, the U.S. dollar index is stable, and the impact on the stock market is limited. Additionally, with the ongoing Two Sessions, positive expectations are increasing, and the market is still expected to maintain an upward trend in the medium term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekend News - At the economic - themed press conference of the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress, National Development and Reform Commission Director Zheng Shanjie stated that the expected GDP increment this year will exceed 6 trillion yuan; by the end of the "15th Five - Year Plan", the scale of artificial - intelligence - related industries will grow to over 10 trillion yuan; a national - level merger and acquisition fund will be established; and the output value of six emerging pillar industries such as integrated circuits, aerospace, and biomedicine is expected to expand to over 10 trillion yuan by 2030 [3]. - Minister of Finance Lan Fuan said that this year's fiscal - fund scale arrangements have reached "new highs" in three aspects; in 2026, fiscal policy will continue to adhere to a more proactive tone; the central government has allocated 100 billion yuan to support the coordination of fiscal and financial policies to boost domestic demand; a new policy tool for the coordination of fiscal and financial policies to boost domestic demand has been innovatively established, targeting household consumption and private investment; and the 100 - billion - level special funds for the coordination of fiscal and financial policies to boost domestic demand can benefit trillions of yuan in credit [3]. - Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao mentioned in the press conference that the special action to boost consumption will be deeply implemented; pilot opening - up in areas such as value - added telecommunications, biotechnology, and foreign - wholly - owned hospitals will be promoted; Chinese online dramas account for 90% of the global market revenue; and more incremental policies such as the 2.0 version of tax - free shopping for outbound travelers will be introduced [3]. - Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng stated that this year, various monetary policy tools such as reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts will be flexibly and efficiently used; China has no need or intention to gain trade - competitive advantages through exchange - rate depreciation; and policy tools to support the capital market will be effectively implemented to support the role of Central Huijin as a quasi - stabilization fund [3]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the "Several Provisions on the Supervision of Short - term Trading", clarifying the calculation standards for determining shareholding and trading time points, including calculating the shareholding ratio of major shareholders with over 5% according to the combined shares of the same listed company or New Third - Board listed company issued or listed and publicly traded at home and abroad. It also specified 13 exemption scenarios for short - term trading [3]. 3.2 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Buy on dips [6]. - Arbitrage: IM long 2609 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage [6]. - Options: Bull spread [6]. 3.3 A - share Index Performance - Affected by the Middle - East situation, on March 3, after a sharp decline, the stock index stabilized. Large - cap indices were more resilient. The CSI 300 fell 1.07%, the SSE 50 fell 1.54%, the CSI 500 fell 3.44%, and the CSI 1000 fell 3.64% [18]. 3.4 A - share Trading Volume - This week, A - share market trading volume first soared and then declined. Trading volume on Monday and Tuesday continuously exceeded 3 trillion yuan, then quickly dropped and remained around 2.3 trillion yuan. The total trading volume for the week was 13 trillion yuan, with the average daily trading volume increasing by 8% compared to last week. The trading - volume proportion of each index remained generally stable. During the sharp decline, the trading - volume proportions of the CSI 300 and SSE 50 indices significantly increased, demonstrating their liquidity advantages [23]. 3.5 A - share Stock Price Movements - At the beginning of this week, the rise and fall of individual stocks changed drastically, first falling across the board and then rebounding in large numbers. Due to market fluctuations, the proportion of limit - up and limit - down stocks also fluctuated significantly. On March 3, the proportion of limit - down stocks reached 1.6%, and on March 4, the proportion of limit - up stocks was only 0.8% [28]. 3.6 A - share Margin Trading - This week, the margin - trading balance in the A - share market remained generally stable at around 2.63 trillion yuan, and the ratio of margin - trading balance to A - share free - float market capitalization remained at 2.55%. On March 4, the net margin repayment reached 22.5 billion yuan, continued on Thursday, and turned into net buying on Friday. The proportion of margin - trading purchases in A - share trading volume continued to decline to around 9%, indicating low market enthusiasm [29]. 3.7 A - share Industry Performance - The report presents the weekly rise - and - fall rates, industry popularity, and capital flow of A - share industries, but specific industry names are not provided. The weekly rise - and - fall rates range from - 8.0% to 8.1%, and the total popularity change rate ranges from - 100% to 269% [36][38]. 3.8 A - share Market Financing - The report shows the IPO financing and private placement financing in the A - share market, but specific data are presented in graphs, and no detailed numerical descriptions are provided [43]. 3.9 Stock - Index Futures Basis Changes - The basis of stock - index futures continued to decline, and the trading volume and open interest changed synchronously with the trading volume of the underlying assets, first increasing and then decreasing [6]. 3.10 Stock - Index Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes - The trading volume and open interest of stock - index futures changed with the trading volume of the underlying assets, first increasing and then decreasing. Specific data for different contracts (IM, IC, IF, IH) are presented in graphs [50]. 3.11 Comparison of Stock - Index Futures and Spot Trading Volume - The report presents the comparison of trading volume between stock - index futures and spot markets for different contracts (IM, IC, IF, IH) through graphs, but no detailed numerical descriptions are provided [52]. 3.12 Stock - Index Futures Main - Contract Open Interest - The report shows the net short - position ratios of the top five and top ten holders of stock - index futures main contracts through graphs, but no detailed numerical descriptions are provided [55][57].