从美国近两个月的经济数据特别是就业数据看，市场预计7月会议降息是最佳时点。当时贸易谈判有所 进展，经济面临的不确定性减小，关税对美国通胀影响并不显著，美国就业疲软走弱已经有所显示且已 持续一段时间。从政策前瞻性角度考虑，应该在那个时候降息。 孙长忠(清华大学全球私募股权研究院研究员) 当地时间9月16日至17日，美联储召开FOMC例行会议，决定下调联邦基金利率目标区间25个基点至 4.00%~4.25%，会议声明、经济预测和美联储主席鲍威尔新闻发布会内容表明，今年剩余两次会议可能 再各降25基点。对此可从三重视角观察本次降息。本次降息有何不同？ 历史总有相似但不会重复。去年美联储也是9月开始降息，一次降息50基点，这次则是25基点。从历史 上看一次降息25基点是常态，只有衰退等异常情况下才一次降息50基点或以上。对比去年，本次降息背 景有以下不同： 其一，这是在更接近中性利率情况下的降息。中性利率是指既不刺激经济也不限制增长的利率水平，它 是无法事先观察到或精确计算出来的，只能事后经历了才发现，事先只能大概推算。去年9月美联储降 息前利率超过5%，为20年来最高，限制性是很明显的，加之去年夏天美国就业也是呈明 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the Federal Reserve's recent policy adjustments in response to rising unemployment risks and inflation concerns, indicating a potential shift towards interest rate cuts to support economic growth [1][2][3] - The Federal Reserve has abandoned the average inflation targeting strategy, reaffirming a long-term inflation target of 2%, which reflects a shift in its monetary policy framework [2] - The Fed's previous approach of maintaining ultra-loose monetary policy for an extended period, despite rising inflation, has been criticized for ignoring the complexities of the economic recovery post-pandemic [3] Group 2 - The recent speech by Fed Chairman Powell highlighted the need for a forward-looking monetary policy that considers the lagging effects of economic changes [3] - The Fed's revised statement emphasizes that full employment should be maintained in the context of price stability, moving away from setting numerical employment targets [3] - The unique nature of the current economic cycle, driven by external shocks such as the pandemic, has been acknowledged as a significant factor influencing the Fed's policy decisions [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The speech by Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22 is an important signal of his shift to a dovish stance [1][7]. - Although Powell did not explicitly state whether there would be a rate cut in September, he repeatedly hinted at a willingness to join the "rate - cut camp", and the overall stance is dovish [2][8]. - The probability of a 25bp rate cut in September has reached around 90%, but it still needs the final push. Whether the rate cut will happen depends on the upcoming non - farm payrolls and CPI data [4][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.暗示愿意转向"降息阵营" (Signaling a Willingness to Join the "Rate - Cut Camp") - Powell expressed concerns about the labor market, stating that the downward risks in the employment market are rising [2][8]. - He pointed out that economic growth has significantly slowed down, with the GDP growth rate in the first half of this year at only 1.2%, a significant slowdown compared to 2024, mainly due to the slowdown in consumer spending [8]. - Powell believed that the impact of tariffs on prices is a "one - time change" and the possibility of a wage - price spiral is small [2][8]. - He indicated that "shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance", which means he has started to consider adjusting the policy rate [2][9]. - The market interpreted Powell's speech as a signal of his shift to the dovish camp. The yield of US Treasury bonds declined significantly, and the expectation of a rate cut in September rose from around 75% to near 90%. The yields of 2Y and 10Y US Treasury bonds decreased by 11bp and 7bp respectively, and the three major US stock indexes rose collectively [2][9]. 3.2.货币政策框架的调整 (Adjustment of the Monetary Policy Framework) - Powell announced the abandonment of the "average inflation target" policy implemented in 2020 and the return to a flexible inflation - targeting framework [3][16]. - The wording of "effective lower bound" (ELB) was removed to simplify the communication on high - inflation response measures [3][16]. - The wording related to "shortfalls" of the full - employment target was removed to address communication challenges [3][17]. - Some other wording modifications were made to clarify communication [3][17]. 3.3.美联储降息还差"临门一脚" (The Fed's Rate Cut is One Step Away) - In August, there were still obvious differences in the stances of Fed officials. Hawks included Schmid, Mussalem, Bostic, and Harker; doves included Waller and Bowman [4][19]. - The probability of a 25bp rate cut in September has reached around 90%, but it depends on the non - farm payrolls and CPI data to be released before the September 17 FOMC meeting. If the August non - farm payrolls are unexpectedly strong (e.g., over 200,000) or the August CPI data rises unexpectedly (e.g., the CPI month - on - month growth rate exceeds 0.5%), the rate cut in September may not happen, but the probability is currently small [4][20]. - Once the rate cut is implemented, it is expected that the prices of US stocks and bonds will rise in the short term, while in the medium - to - long term, it is necessary to observe whether tariffs will lead to a "stagflation" scenario [4][20].

Group 1: Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve consensus on a September interest rate cut appears to be largely reached, with expectations for a 25 basis point reduction[3] - Powell's speech highlighted the dual risks of a declining labor market and rising inflation, indicating a need for policy adjustment[2] - The labor market is showing signs of increased layoffs and rising unemployment rates, while tariffs are contributing to inflationary pressures[2] Group 2: Monetary Policy Framework - The Fed's monetary policy framework is being adjusted to return to a flexible inflation targeting regime, balancing monetary policy goals[4] - The removal of the "effective lower bound" statement aligns with current high inflation characteristics, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach[4] - The Fed will act based on economic outlook and risk balance, maintaining a long-term inflation target of 2%[4] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following Powell's dovish remarks, the market is expected to experience a short-term boost in risk sentiment, with positive reactions in U.S. equities[5] - The likelihood of two rate cuts in 2025 is anticipated, but caution remains due to the delayed effects of tariffs on inflation[5] - Market indicators showed significant gains in U.S. stocks, a decline in bond yields, and an increase in gold prices following the speech[5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that inflation risks are more concerning than labor market conditions according to the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes from July [1] - There is an increasing internal division within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, with a focus on reviewing the monetary policy framework [1] - The expectation for interest rate cuts may narrow as inflation risks are perceived to be greater than economic risks, suggesting a continued hawkish stance on interest rates [1] Group 2 - The upcoming global central bank conference in Jackson Hole raises questions about whether Jerome Powell will signal any changes in policy [1] - Risk assets are currently suppressing risk-free assets, indicating potential market volatility in the near term [1]

Group 1 - The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium is set to commence, with a key speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell scheduled for August 22, focusing on economic outlook and monetary policy framework review [1][3] - Powell's speech is expected to discuss potential adjustments to the Federal Open Market Committee's consensus statement, possibly reversing some changes made in 2020 and returning to a flexible inflation targeting strategy [1][3] - The European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and the Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will participate in a closing panel discussion on August 23, which is anticipated to closely align with the conference's themes [2][3] Group 2 - The conference's main theme is "Transforming Labor Markets: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy," which will guide the research presentations, although Powell's speech may focus more on current policy issues [3] - Media interviews will play a crucial role in disseminating policy information, with approximately five Federal Reserve officials expected to participate in interviews on August 22, following Powell's speech [4] - Historical data indicates that interviews with central bank officials often provide more immediate insights into policy direction compared to academic discussions, highlighting their market impact [4]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium is expected to provide significant insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction, particularly through Chairman Powell's keynote speech on August 22, which will focus on the economic outlook and the review of the Fed's monetary policy framework [1][3]. Key Schedule Highlights - The complete agenda for the Jackson Hole Symposium will be released on August 21, with three main events: Powell's keynote speech on August 22, a lunch speech on the same day, and a closing panel discussion on August 23 featuring ECB President Lagarde and BoE Governor Bailey [2][3]. Focus of Powell's Keynote Speech - Powell's speech will likely address current policy issues rather than strictly adhering to the conference theme, which is "Transforming Labor Markets: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy" [3]. The speech may also indicate potential adjustments to the FOMC's consensus statement, possibly reversing some changes made in 2020 and returning to a flexible inflation targeting strategy [3]. Media Interviews as Information Sources - Due to limited live coverage of the event, media interviews will serve as a crucial source of policy information, with approximately five Fed officials expected to participate in interviews on August 22 [4]. Historical data suggests that these interviews can provide more immediate insights into policy direction compared to academic discussions [4].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that inflation may become more volatile in the future, suggesting that the U.S. might be entering a period of more frequent and prolonged supply shocks [2] - The Federal Reserve is currently conducting its first monetary policy framework review since 2020, aiming to incorporate lessons from the inflation surge in 2021 and subsequent aggressive rate hikes [2] - Fed Governor Michael Barr warned that supply chain disruptions related to tariffs could lead to economic growth slowdown and rising inflation, particularly affecting small businesses that have limited access to credit [2][3] Group 2 - Barr highlighted the multiplier effect of supply chain disruptions, referencing the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on various industries and prolonged price volatility [3] - The uncertainty in current trade policies could potentially weaken economic growth momentum and increase inflationary pressures beyond expectations [3] - Despite recent trade agreements between the U.S., U.K., and China, global macroeconomic and trade uncertainties persist, with supply chain disruptions posing a risk of a domino effect on already fragile trade networks [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell, is undergoing a reassessment of its policy framework in light of significant economic changes over the past five years, particularly regarding inflation and interest rates [1][3][10]. Group 1: Economic Context - The Fed has experienced a period of soaring inflation, prompting aggressive interest rate hikes, with the current policy rate set between 4.25% and 4.5% [2][11]. - Powell indicated that future inflation may be more volatile, suggesting the U.S. could face more frequent and prolonged supply shocks, posing challenges for both the economy and the central bank [2][11]. - Historically, during economic downturns, the Fed has typically lowered rates by about 500 basis points [2][11]. Group 2: Policy Framework Review - The Fed is revisiting its strategic framework based on lessons learned from the past five years, focusing on improving communication regarding uncertainty and risks [3][14]. - The last comprehensive review of the Fed's policy framework occurred in 2012, establishing a 2% inflation target, which remains a critical focus [5][14]. - The upcoming review aims to ensure the framework remains resilient in the face of diverse economic conditions and developments [14][15]. Group 3: Communication and Transparency - Clear communication is essential for reducing uncertainty and enhancing policy effectiveness, especially during complex economic events [5][15]. - The Fed plans to enhance its communication tools to better convey its understanding of economic uncertainties and the implications for policy [14][15]. - There is a consensus among participants that improvements in communication are necessary, even during stable periods [15].

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, closing down $72.77, or 2.24%, at $3177.13, nearing a five-week low [1] - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.21% at 42051.06 points, while the S&P 500 rose 0.1% to 5892.58 points, and the Nasdaq increased by 0.72% to 19146.81 points [2] - The U.S. government announced a reduction or removal of tariffs on small packages from China, lowering the international mail tax rate from 120% to 54% [4] Group 2 - Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns about inflation risks due to new tariff policies, indicating a less certain inflation outlook for the U.S. [5] - The Chicago Fed President warned of potential tightening in consumer and business spending amid uncertainty [7] - UBS downgraded its rating on U.S. stocks from "attractive" to "neutral," citing rapid increases in stock prices over the past month [7] Group 3 - Foreign investment institutions have upgraded their ratings on Chinese stocks, with Nomura raising its rating to "tactical overweight" and Citi increasing its year-end target for the Hang Seng Index by 2% to 25000 points [8] - International capital is increasingly betting on Chinese assets, with U.S. hedge funds raising their bullish positions on Chinese stocks [9] - The attractiveness of RMB assets is expected to drive more international capital into China's capital markets, particularly in high-quality blue-chip stocks and high-credit bonds [9] Group 4 - Investors are focusing on key U.S. retail sales data and remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for new trading momentum [11] - The U.S. Census Bureau is set to release April retail sales data, with expectations of a flat month-over-month change [11] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for April is also anticipated, with a year-over-year increase forecasted at 2.5% [11] Group 5 - Russia and Ukraine are scheduled to hold direct negotiations in Istanbul, marking their first direct dialogue since March 2022 [12] - The attendance of President Putin at the talks is a focal point of interest, with expectations that the meeting may primarily involve diplomatic discussions [13] Group 6 - The U.S. signed agreements worth over $243.5 billion with Qatar, including a significant order for Boeing aircraft, marking the largest wide-body aircraft order in Boeing's history [15]