白银价格预测：XAG/USD进一步攀升至52美元附近，因美国国债收益率持续承压 白银价格进一步上涨至52.00美元附近，美联储鸽派预期令美国国债收益率承压。 美联储威廉姆斯认为有必要进一步调整货币政策。 白宫经济顾问哈塞特成为下任美联储主席热门人选。 周三亚洲交易时段，白银价格（XAG/USD）延续三日反弹势头逼近52.00美元。随着市场预期美联储今年可能再度降息，计息资产收益率持续承压，白银价 格获得支撑。 截至发稿时，美国十年期国债收益率持平于4.00%附近，但一周内已下跌3.4%。 利息资产收益率走低对白银等无收益资产构成利好。 白银日线图 Silver US Dollars per Ounce Spot Prices, 1D O51.45 H52.08 L51.30 C51.94 +0.50 (+0.97%) EMA (20, close, 0) 50.40 RSI (14) 59.15 22 15 22 10 1 15 Oct 8 Nov 芝加哥商品交易所FedWatch工具显示，美联储在12月会议上将利率下调25个基点至3.50%-3.75%的概率已从一周前的50.1%升至85.3%。 美联储鸽派 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the short-term volatility in the U.S. stock market, driven by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and liquidity tightening, presents a buying opportunity for bulls [1][25]. Market Analysis - Despite a modest 5% pullback in the S&P 500 index, two-thirds of the top 1000 companies have experienced declines exceeding 10%, indicating a significant internal market adjustment [1][4]. - The report highlights that momentum stocks peaked on October 15, coinciding with a notable rise in the Treasury General Account (TGA) due to government shutdown concerns [3][4]. - The S&P 500 index reached its peak on October 29, the same day the Fed signaled a hawkish stance during its meeting [3][4]. Sector Recommendations - Analysts maintain a bullish outlook for the next 12 months, particularly favoring sectors such as consumer goods, healthcare, finance, industrials, and small-cap stocks [3][25]. - The report suggests that the recent broad-based individual stock adjustments are a positive sign, indicating that the market correction is in its latter stages [7][25]. Liquidity Conditions - Morgan Stanley notes that high-momentum and speculative growth stocks are more sensitive to liquidity constraints, which have been tightening since mid-October [16][18]. - The report anticipates that liquidity conditions will improve as the government shutdown ends and the TGA balance decreases significantly in the coming weeks [18]. Employment Market Insights - Various alternative labor market indicators show signs of weakness, but not an accelerating trend, suggesting a gradual slowdown rather than a sharp decline [9][10]. - The upcoming official employment data release on December 16 may create uncertainty for the Fed's decision on interest rates, potentially leading to short-term market volatility [15][25]. Long-term Outlook - Morgan Stanley's 2026 outlook report presents contrarian views, suggesting that the market is in an "early cycle" phase, contrary to the prevailing belief of being in a "late cycle" [19]. - The firm projects a 17% earnings growth for Nasdaq-related companies by 2026, exceeding the consensus estimates [19][22]. - The report emphasizes that despite recent market pullbacks, the underlying fundamentals remain strong, supporting a positive outlook for small-cap stocks and non-essential consumer goods [23][25].

2025 年野村中国投资年会已在深圳圆满落幕，野村经济学家、分析师和策略师为投资者、企业家深入剖 析市场动态，解读热点话题。请点击以下视频，查看野村主要发言嘉宾就市场变化、宏观经济走势、 AI 浪潮以及货币政策调整等核心议题进行的精彩分享和深入探讨。 Arvind Shah 野村亚洲（除日本外）股票研究销售主管 苏博文 Rob Subbarama 野村全球宏观研究主管及全 球市场研究部 联席主管 大家好。很高兴再次来到深圳，参加野村中国投资年会。今年是第17届中国投资论坛，我们看 到全球宏观讨论会场座无虚席。 我们在会上谈到了今年经济在面临来自美国关税和地缘政治的诸多冲击下，展现出韧性。展望 未来，我们还讨论到人工智能在推动经济体发展中变得越来越重要。我们的确也看到了日益增 长的分歧。我们预计美国2026年GDP增长2.4%、欧元区增长1.2%、日本增长0.6%。 但有趣的是，我们认为货币政策也将会大相径庭。我们认为美联储明年将再降息三次、欧洲央 行已经停止降息，日本央行将逆势而行在明年一月加息。 最后我想说，财政政策在减少全球预算赤字方面进展甚微。我们知道收入不平等在加剧，国 防、养老、气候变化、灾害方面的 ...

Core Viewpoints - The recent pressures in the US funding market were caused by the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction, the US Treasury's TGA fund replenishment, and seasonal fluctuations [2][5] - After experiencing liquidity tightening due to these factors, the funding market pressures have significantly eased, indicating that liquidity stress is now manageable [5][6] Funding Market Dynamics - The repo market indicators showed increased spreads during September and October due to month-end pressures and TGA fund replenishment, but these spreads have since decreased in November [3][5] - The increase in spreads between the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) and the interest on reserves balance (IORB) reflected liquidity tightening, but current levels are still below those seen during the 2019 repo market crisis [3][5] Use of Liquidity Tools - Financial institutions had been using the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) more frequently during September and October due to liquidity pressures, but usage has declined significantly since the end of October [4][5] - The SRF is designed to support effective monetary policy implementation and stabilize short-term rates during liquidity stress [4] Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve's decision to end balance sheet reduction on December 1 is expected to further alleviate funding market pressures [6] - The Fed plans to reinvest proceeds from maturing mortgage-backed securities into short-term Treasury securities, which will help stabilize its balance sheet and mitigate liquidity risks [6]

纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯的一席话，让市场重新审视美联储的降息路径。 "我仍然看到在近期进一步调整联邦基金利率目标区间的空间。"11月21日，纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯在智利圣地亚哥的一次会议上的这番表述，迅速点 燃了金融市场的交易热情。 这位在美联储拥有永久投票权的重量级人物指出，当前货币政策处于"适度限制性"状态，因此有可能在不久的将来进行调整。 市场对此反应迅速而强烈。据CME FedWatch工具显示，交易员对12月降息的概率预期从周四的39%飙升至73%。美股应声反弹，道指暴涨逾700点。 01 三位一体的影响力 在美联储的权力结构中，存在一个非正式的"领导三人组"（troika），这个小组由美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔、副主席菲利普·杰斐逊和纽约联储主席约翰·威廉 姆斯组成。 威廉姆斯作为纽约联储主席，在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）中拥有永久投票权，而其他地区联储主席则轮流享有投票权。 纽约联储不仅仅是美联储系统中的一个分支机构，它还扮演着特殊角色——负责执行公开市场操作，与华尔街保持密切联系，并管理着庞大的资产负债表。 02 精准的时机 威廉姆斯的讲话出现在一个特别敏感的时刻。FOMC作为一个通常 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The New York stock market showed significant improvement in sentiment driven by macro data and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with all three major indices closing higher on November 21 [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 493.15 points to close at 46,245.41, an increase of 1.08%; the S&P 500 gained 64.23 points to finish at 6,602.99, up 0.98%; and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 195.035 points to close at 22,273.083, a rise of 0.88% [1] - All eleven sectors of the S&P 500 index experienced gains, with the communication services and healthcare sectors leading with increases of 2.15% and 2.11%, respectively [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - John Williams, President of the New York Federal Reserve, indicated that the soft job market poses a greater threat to the economy compared to rising inflation, suggesting that the Fed could continue to lower interest rates [1] - Williams stated that while monetary policy has become somewhat more accommodative, it remains in a moderately restrictive state, allowing for further adjustments to bring rates closer to neutral [1] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The FedWatch Tool indicated a significant increase in the market's expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, rising from 39.1% to 71.7% [2] - The preliminary data from S&P Global showed that the U.S. manufacturing PMI for November was 51.9, below the expected 52.3 and the revised 52.5 from October, marking a four-month low [2] - The services PMI for the same period was reported at 55, exceeding the revised 54.8 from October, representing a four-month high [2] - The final consumer confidence index for November was reported at 51, surpassing the expected 50.5 and the initial estimate of 50.3, but still lower than October's 53.6 [3]

（原标题：刚刚！美联储，"救市"！） 【导读】纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯表示，鉴于劳动力市场疲软，他认为美联储在短期内仍有再次降 息的空间 中国基金报记者 泰勒 兄弟姐妹啊，全球资本市场风雨飘摇之际，美联储出手了。 纽约联储主席约翰·威 廉姆斯表示，美联储有可能在12月再次降息。 这位具有重要影响力的决策者在智利发表讲话时称，相 比通胀风险，他现在更担心劳动力市场面临的压力，这与联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）中一些偏鸽派 成员的观点一致。 约翰·威廉姆斯被称为美联储"三号人物"。作为纽约联储主席，他同时担任联邦公开市场委员会负责制 定利率政策的副主席，拥有永久投票权，在美联储决策中具有重要影响力。 威廉姆斯称："我认为当前货币政策仍然是温和偏紧的，不过相较于我们最近的行动之前，现在已经没 那么紧了。因此，我依然认为，在不久的将来还有进一步调整联邦基金利率目标区间的空间，把政策立 场拉近到中性利率区间，从而在实现我们两个目标之间维持平衡。" 威廉姆斯的表态表明，在美联储主席鲍威尔试图在高度分化的决策层中凝聚共识、为12月9日至10日的 会议做准备之际，再次降息依然是一个现实选项。 在10月连续第二次降息之后，多 ...

Group 1 - Gold serves as a crucial asset in global financial markets, reflecting supply-demand dynamics and international geopolitical changes [1] - The study aims to reveal the intrinsic relationship between international situations and gold prices, analyzing the impact of various geopolitical events [2] - The research innovatively incorporates multiple factors such as geopolitical, economic, and monetary policy influences on gold prices [3] Group 2 - Gold's commodity attribute is linked to its industrial and jewelry demand, with supply from major gold-producing countries affecting its base price [4] - Gold's financial attribute positions it as a key investment asset and a hedge against risks, with significant increases in ETF holdings during crises [5] - Gold retains its monetary attribute as a recognized "hard currency," with central banks increasing their gold reserves to optimize foreign exchange structures [6] Group 3 - Political instability increases demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with historical examples showing significant price spikes during geopolitical conflicts [7] - Economic changes, such as growth slowdowns or inflation, influence investor demand for gold, leading to price fluctuations [8] - Adjustments in monetary policy by central banks affect gold prices through changes in liquidity, interest rates, and currency values [9] Group 4 - Historical geopolitical events like the Gulf War and the Russia-Ukraine conflict demonstrate varying impacts on gold prices, with the latter showing prolonged effects due to multiple influencing factors [10][11] - Economic crises, such as the 2008 financial crisis, highlight gold's role as a safe-haven asset, with significant price increases during market turmoil [12] - The European debt crisis showcased gold's value as a non-euro asset, with price fluctuations driven by regional economic risks [13] Group 5 - The implementation of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve post-2008 significantly boosted gold prices, illustrating the long-term effects of monetary policy [14] - Japan's negative interest rate policy provided a short-term uplift to gold prices, emphasizing the varying impacts of different monetary policies [15] - Recent geopolitical tensions, such as U.S.-China trade disputes and Brexit, have led to cyclical and event-driven fluctuations in gold prices [17][18]

Core Points - The U.S. has completed the minting of the last batch of one-cent coins, marking the end of a 232-year history for the coin [1][3] - The decision to stop minting one-cent coins was driven by their production cost exceeding their face value, with each coin costing approximately 2.5 cents to produce [1][3] - The final batch of one-cent coins, totaling about 150 million, is expected to become popular collectibles, potentially increasing in value to 5-10 cents each [3] Summary by Sections Minting Decision - The minting of one-cent coins was officially halted following a directive from former President Donald Trump, aimed at saving taxpayer money and simplifying daily transactions [3] - The last batch of one-cent coins was minted in Philadelphia and will be used to replenish existing inventories without large-scale circulation [3] Economic Context - The production cost of one-cent coins is projected to exceed $800 million in 2024, significantly higher than their nominal value [1] - The rise of digital payments has led to a decrease in cash transactions, prompting many merchants to round prices to the nearest five cents [1] Historical Significance - This marks the first permanent cancellation of a circulating coin in the U.S. since the discontinuation of the half-cent coin in 1857 [1]

Summary of PBOC Q3 Monetary Policy Report Industry Overview - The report pertains to the monetary policy of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and its implications for the Chinese economy. Key Points and Arguments 1. Monetary Policy Stance - The PBOC maintained a "moderately loose" policy stance in its Q3 report, but emphasized cross-cyclical adjustments, indicating a less dovish tone compared to the Q2 report [2][6] - The central bank signaled limited appetite for broad-based monetary easing, contrasting with previous assessments of China's growth outlook [2][6] 2. Constraints on Monetary Easing - Banks' net interest margins are identified as a major constraint on further monetary easing [2][6] - The PBOC highlighted the need to improve monetary policy transmission, particularly aligning banks' asset returns with funding costs [2][6] 3. Credit Policy - The PBOC downplayed the significance of slower loan growth, attributing it to a shift from indirect financing (bank loans) to direct financing (bond and equity issuance) [7] - The report suggests monitoring total social financing and money supply instead of focusing solely on loan growth as an economic indicator [7] 4. Interest Rate Management - The PBOC emphasized managing interest rate differentials for effective policy transmission, monitoring five categories including policy vs. market rates and banks' lending rates vs. liability costs [8] - This reflects the PBOC's approach to stabilize banks' net interest margins and maintain a relatively steep yield curve [8] 5. Exchange Rate Policy - The PBOC plans to maintain exchange rate flexibility, indicating less depreciation pressure on the CNY against the dollar [9][11] - The report promotes RMB internationalization, suggesting a policy preference for gradual CNY appreciation against the dollar [9][11] 6. Future Monetary Policy Forecast - The forecast for a "dual cut" (10bp policy rate cut and 50bp RRR cut) has been pushed back from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026, with a subsequent rate cut in Q2 2026 shifted to Q3 2026 [1][2] Additional Important Content - The report indicates a policy tilt towards financial stability over growth, suggesting a comprehensive macro-prudential management framework [6] - The PBOC's approach reflects a data-based methodology, focusing on executing existing policies rather than incremental easing [6] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the PBOC's Q3 monetary policy report, highlighting the central bank's cautious approach amidst economic challenges.