Regulatory Developments - The National Internet Information Office has drafted the "Regulations on the Collection and Use of Personal Information by Internet Applications (Draft for Comments)," which prohibits frequent requests for personal information permissions that affect users' normal use of other functions [1] - The State Administration for Market Regulation has announced a revised "Complaint Handling Measures for Market Supervision," effective from April 15, which clarifies the jurisdiction of complaints for online stores and live broadcast platforms, and aims to regulate malicious claims [1] Economic Insights - The Ministry of Commerce has issued a task for comprehensive pilot projects to expand the opening of the service industry in Dalian and eight other cities [2] - The National Healthcare Security Administration has revised the coding rules for traditional Chinese medicine pieces, assigning a new "medical identity" to each piece [2] - China's chief economist forum indicates a historic shift in China's financial structure, with a decrease in the proportion of indirect financing and an increase in direct financing [2] - Predictions suggest that monetary policy will likely adopt a "small step" approach in the near term, with room for rate cuts [2] - A significant shift of funds from deposits to asset management products is expected as a large volume of fixed-term deposits matures this year [2] Investment Trends - Rising storage costs have begun to impact the consumer electronics sector, leading to price increases for smartphones and laptops, particularly among leading PC manufacturers [4] - Fund companies have been notified to utilize more QDII quotas for public offerings, which is seen as a measure to guide financial resources towards ordinary investors [4] - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a net subscription of over 10 billion in thematic ETFs within the first four trading days of the year, with several ETFs reaching new highs since their launch [4] - Gold prices have reached historical highs multiple times in 2025, with a cumulative increase of over 60%, while the US dollar index has dropped by 9.4% [4][5] Company Movements - Hangzhou Xinjian Electromechanical Transmission Co., Ltd. has initiated listing guidance with CITIC Securities as the advisory institution, noted for its close ties to Tesla's Optimus supply chain [6] - Xiaomi's CEO expressed pride in the SU7 model, which has reportedly outperformed the Tesla Model 3 in sales [6] - The new chief scientist at Tencent indicated that the potential for productivity improvements related to current models is just beginning to be realized [6] - BAIC New Energy and Beijing Mobility have launched a pilot operation for the BAIC Arcfox Alpha S (L3 version) on designated highways, with plans to gradually open to individual users by the second quarter of this year [6] - Changying Precision has stated that while it provides structural components for portable satellite communication stations, this business constitutes a very small portion of its revenue [6]

2.1 增长温和放缓 2025 年全球经济呈现温和放缓态势，未来的不确定性增大，各大机构的预测存在明显的差异化。 | 机构 | 2025年全球增速预测 | 预测时间和核心观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 经合组织 (OECD) | 3.2%(预计) | 2025年12月发布报告,认为经济"韧性超出预期",但风险 正在累积。 | | 国际货币基金组织 (IMF) | 3.2%(预计) | 2025 年 10 月上调预期，认为韧性部分源于"前置进口"等短 期因素,增长基础仍脆弱。 | | 联合国 (UN) | 2.4%(预计) | 2025年5月发布报告,强调贸易冲突与政策不确定性导致前 | | | | 景恶化。 | 2.2 主要经济体明显分化 对资产的影响主要集中在以下几个方面： 1. 贸易摩擦与供应链压力： 美国的关税政策不仅拖累本国消费，而且还推高了企业成本，使得通胀更加顽固。黄金作为抵御不确定性和通胀的工具，获得支撑后大幅上涨。与此同时， 供应链中断的风险也为原油等大宗商品增添了风险溢价。 2. 政策两难和美元的强势： 各国央行均陷入既要遏制通胀，又要刺激经济的两难困境。美联储受制于通 ...

周三，澳元（AUD）兑美元（USD）延续上行，实现四连涨。 澳大利亚11月通胀数据缓解，澳元兑美元汇率仍走高。市场关注本月底第四季度通胀完整报告，分析指出，核心通胀率若上升0.9%及以上，或引发澳大利 亚储备银行（RBA）2月会议政策调整考量。 《澳大利亚金融评论报》（AFR）信息显示，市场预期澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）本轮政策调整周期未结束。调研数据显示，未来一年通胀或持续高位，引 发后续政策调整猜测。 澳大利亚统计局（ABS）周三数据显示，11月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比增长3.4%，低于10月的3.8%及市场预期的3.7%，仍高于澳大利亚储备银行 （RBA）2-3%目标区间。该数值为8月以来最低，住房成本增速降至三个月最低。 11月澳大利亚CPI环比持平（0%），与10月一致。 同期澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）中位数CPI环比涨0.3%，同比增3.2%。2025年11月经季节性调整建筑许可证数量激增15.2%至18406套，创近四年高点，此前 曾回落6.1%；年度批准数量同比大增20.2%，扭转10月修订后1.1%的降幅。 美元方面，ISM服务业采购经理人指数（PMI）发布前表现偏弱。美元指数（DXY） ...

央行干预外汇市场的核心目的是稳定汇率走势、缓解本币过度波动、维护外汇市场秩序，其干预方式可 分为直接干预和间接干预两大类，具体操作逻辑及特点如下： 一、直接干预：央行直接参与外汇交易 直接干预是央行通过在外汇市场上买卖外汇资产，直接影响本币供需关系以调节汇率，是最直接有效的 干预手段。 即期外汇干预 这是最常见的干预方式。当本币面临过度贬值压力时，央行会动用外汇储备，在市场上卖出外汇、买入 本币，增加本币需求，从而提振本币汇率；当本币升值过快影响出口竞争力时，央行则会买入外汇、卖 出本币，增加外汇储备的同时压低本币汇率。这种干预见效快，但会直接消耗或增加央行的外汇储备规 模。 远期外汇干预 央行通过与商业银行等交易对手签订远期外汇合约，约定未来某一时期以特定汇率买卖外汇。这种方式 不会立即影响当期外汇储备，而是通过锁定未来的外汇供需，引导市场对汇率的预期。例如，央行向商 业银行卖出远期外汇，相当于向市场释放未来本币升值的信号，抑制短期贬值投机。 外汇掉期操作 央行结合即期和远期交易，进行即期卖出(买入)外汇+远期买入(卖出)外汇的组合操作。这种方式既能在 短期内调节即期汇率，又能通过远期交易对冲外汇储备的波动 ...

1月6日，日本央行行长植田和男周一暗示，若经济和物价走势符合日本央行预期，未来可能进一步加 息。植田向日本银行业游说团体发表讲话时确认，去年日本经济保持温和复苏态势，经受住了美国加征 关税对企业利润的冲击。他表示预计工资和物价将同步温和上涨，并补充称调整货币政策对实现经济持 续增长至关重要。植田和男的讲话确认了日元利率上行的长期趋势，这是其价值的根本支撑。但在全球 市场仍聚焦于美国政策、且日本央行步调极其谨慎的背景下，日元难以立即扭转弱势。当前影响是"长 期利好奠定基础，短期谨慎压制表现"。投资者应更关注其政策正常化的持续性，而非单次加息的时 机。 另外，国际货币基金组织（IMF）最新发布的《世界经济展望》预测，2026年欧洲的经济总量将达到 31.4万亿美元（约合27万亿欧元）。其中，德国将以5.3万亿美元的经济规模领跑欧洲主要经济体，英国 和法国紧随其后，名义GDP将分别达到4.2万亿和3.6万亿美元。这三大经济体合计贡献超过40%的欧洲 GDP。意大利和西班牙作为南欧经济强国，预计2026年将实现温和增长，名义GDP分别达到2.7万亿美 元和2万亿美元。在东欧，俄罗斯的名义GDP预计将达到2.5万亿美元 ...

周二亚洲交易时段，英镑/美元货币对呈现小幅走低态势，部分回吐前一交易日的上涨成果。 此前该货币对曾强势上行至1.3545-1.3550区间，创下2025年9月以来的阶段性高点。 最新公布的经济数据显示，英国零售协会周二发布报告指出，12月整体商店价格同比上涨0.7%，其中食品通胀表现尤为值得关注， 从11月的3.0%攀升至3.3%。这一通胀数据的变化，可能会促使市场重新评估英国央行的政策宽松预期，进而对英镑形成支撑，短期 内英镑/美元的空头力量或需保持谨慎态度。 对于后续市场走势而言，即将公布的经济数据将成为关键驱动力。 目前市场参与者正等待英国和美国最终服务业PMI数据的出炉，期望从中获取新的交易指引。不过需要注意的是，当前市场焦点仍 高度集中于周五即将公布的美国非农就业报告（NFP），在此之前，短期市场大概率将维持相对平淡的运行格局，波动空间或较为 有限。 除非农就业报告外，本月初即将公布的其他多项美国核心宏观经济数据，也将为市场判断美联储降息路径提供重要参考。这些数据 的表现将直接影响市场对美元的需求变化，进而推动英镑/美元汇率的短期走势。 数据显示，标普全球美国制造业PMI维持在51.8的水平，这一数 ...

前言：富格林凭借雄厚企业实力及精进优质服务，获颁香港黄金交易所A1特级行员（100号），协助广大投资者妥善曝光处置市面欺诈套路乱 象，合理布局把握行情盈利之机。周二（12月30日），黄金与白银在周一大幅下挫后强势反弹，显示避险资金重新入场。随着年末地缘政治风 险再度升温，市场避险情绪升高，推动贵金属买盘回流，缓解了市场对贵金属短线"见顶"风险的担忧。投资者可在线联络在线客服转接富格林 专家顾问沟通交流，寻求曝光处置欺诈套路妥善方案，善用精准策略建议兑现盈利预期。 富格林凭借雄厚企业实力及精进优质服务，获颁香港黄金交易所A1特级行员（100号），协助广大投资者妥善曝光处置市面欺诈套路乱象，合 理布局把握行情盈利之机。周二（12月30日）现货黄金价格一度强劲反弹，虽然最终涨幅收窄，但纵观全年黄金价格已累计上涨66%，有望成 为自1979年以来表现最为亮眼的一年。这一现象不仅源于美联储的货币政策调整，还受到央行购金、资金流入以及国际热点事件的综合影响。 投资者可在线联络在线客服转接富格林专家顾问沟通交流，寻求曝光处置欺诈套路妥善方案，善用精准策略建议兑现盈利预期。 美联储的货币政策一直是影响黄金价格的核心变量，而周 ...

Key Insights - The global commodity market in 2025 shows a clear divergence, with energy and agricultural prices declining while precious metals (like gold and silver) and industrial metals (like copper) continue to rise and reach new highs. This situation is influenced by changes in global demand, geopolitical tensions, monetary policy adjustments, and the development of the new energy industry. This divergence is expected to persist into 2026, with energy prices anticipated to further decline due to oversupply, while precious metal prices are projected to continue rising [1]. Energy - The global crude oil market in 2025 experienced significant volatility, with Brent crude prices fluctuating between $60 and $70 per barrel by year-end. Geopolitical tensions and policy changes were key drivers of price movements, with prices peaking at $83 per barrel early in the year due to U.S. sanctions on Russia [3][5]. - In the second half of 2025, the market shifted from being geopolitically driven to one characterized by oversupply and weak demand, leading to a downward trend in oil prices. OPEC+ adjusted its strategy from production cuts to phased increases, while U.S. production reached historical highs, resulting in rapid inventory accumulation [5][6]. - For 2026, the oil market is expected to face severe oversupply pressures, with Brent crude prices projected to drop further. Analysts predict a price range of $56 to $60 per barrel, with some forecasts suggesting a potential dip to $51 per barrel in early 2026 [7]. Natural Gas - The global natural gas market in 2025 showed a "high then low" pattern, with prices initially rising due to cold weather and geopolitical factors but later declining as new U.S. production came online and demand slowed in Asia [8][10]. - In 2026, the market is expected to transition from a "tight balance" to "periodic oversupply," driven by increased LNG production from the U.S., Qatar, and Canada. Despite ample supply, demand is projected to rise by 2%, providing some price support [10]. Uranium - The uranium market in 2025 transitioned from "de-bubbling" to "structural support," with prices rebounding from a low of approximately $63 per pound to around $81-83 per pound by year-end. This was driven by renewed demand from nuclear power and AI data centers [11][13]. - For 2026, expectations are for uranium prices to accelerate upward, with forecasts suggesting prices could reach $91 per pound, with some estimates as high as $135 per pound due to increasing demand and supply constraints [14]. Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced a "historic rally" in 2025, with gold prices rising approximately 70% and silver prices soaring over 160%. This was fueled by central bank purchases, ETF inflows, and a low-interest-rate environment [15][17]. - For 2026, major financial institutions predict continued bullish trends for gold, with average prices expected to range from $4,500 to $5,000 per ounce, driven by central bank strategies and concerns over U.S. dollar credit [18][19]. Industrial Metals - The industrial metals market in 2025 was characterized by extreme differentiation, with copper prices reaching historical highs due to demand from AI data centers and global grid upgrades. Copper prices exceeded $12,700 per ton [21]. - In 2026, copper and tin are expected to remain strong, with copper potentially reaching $15,000 per ton, while tin prices may rise to $44,000 per ton due to ongoing supply constraints [28]. Agricultural Products - Cocoa prices fell significantly in 2025 after reaching a peak in 2024, while coffee prices exhibited a high-level fluctuation, with expectations for a return to balance in 2026 as supply improves [25][27]. - For 2026, cocoa is expected to see a surplus of about 150,000 tons, leading to price declines, while coffee prices are projected to drop significantly due to increased production in Brazil and Colombia [29][32].

1、离岸人民币对美元升破7关口，创15个月新高。 外汇市场迎来标志性时刻。12月25日，离岸人民币对美元盘中升 破"7"整数关口，为15个月来首次，最高触及6.9985。与此同时，在岸人民币对美元逼近"7"关口，最高触及7.0053，创15 个月新高。展望明年，业内普遍预计人民币汇率有望继续升值，但不会出现单边走势。 2、LOF集体狂欢后资金炒作退潮。 在前一日经历20余只LOF批量涨停后，12月25日，国泰商品LOF、黄金主题LOF、国 投瑞盈LOF、国投白银LOF、中信保诚商品LOF全部跌停，嘉实黄金LOF、黄金LOF均跌超9%。多家基金公司宣布旗下 LOF限购升级，黄金LOF申购限额由5000元下调至10元。国投白银LOF 12月26日开市起停牌1小时，12月29日起A类份额 限购金额由500元降至100元，C类份额暂停申购。 3、金融监管总局发布资管产品信息披露管理办法，统一信披规则。 金融监管总局发布《银行保险机构资产管理产品信息 披露管理办法》，对理财、资产管理信托、保险资管产品统一信披监管规则，同时兼顾三类产品客观差异作出针对性安 排。《办法》要求产品管理人原则上不得调整业绩比较基准，这将有助于 ...

转自：新华财经 【资讯导读】 •日本2026财年预算创新高 国债发行规模近30万亿日元 •埃及央行将基准利率下调100个基点，隔夜贷款和存款利率分别调整为21%和20%，以应对高通胀压力 缓和后的政策调整需求。 •乌克兰总统泽连斯基25日透露，已与美国总统特朗普特使威特科夫及库什纳通电话，就未来会晤安排 和加速推进"真正和平"进程交换意见。 【全球市场动态】 •日本央行行长：利率仍有上调空间 •韩国央行保持降息选项开放 警惕汇率与楼市风险 •埃及央行大幅降息100基点 贷款利率降至21% 【市场资讯】 •日本首相高市早苗公布2026财年初始预算案，总额达122.3万亿日元，同比增长6.3%，刷新历史纪录。 为填补财政缺口，政府计划发行约29.6万亿日元国债。 •日本央行行长植田和男表示，随着实现可持续通胀目标的信心增强，若经济展望如期兑现，央行有意 进一步加息，并指出当前实际利率仍处低位。 •日本政府将2025财年GDP增长预期从0.7%上调至1.1%，并预计2026财年经济增速将进一步提升至 1.3%，反映出对经济复苏势头的乐观判断。 •韩国央行在2026年货币政策声明中表示，不排除进一步降息可能，同时强调 ...