Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced a high-level correction, with a weekly decline of 2.65%, closing at $4003.23 per ounce, despite a 3.76% increase in October, marking the third consecutive month of gains [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The decline in gold prices was attributed to a reduction in the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset due to easing trade tensions and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts [1][4]. - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4.00% but indicated that a December rate cut is not guaranteed, leading to a shift in market expectations [2][3]. - The market anticipates that the probability of a December rate cut has decreased from 83% to 65% following the Fed's recent statements [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, making private sector data crucial for assessing labor market and inflation trends [3]. - Important upcoming data releases include the ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS job openings, ADP employment changes, and consumer confidence surveys, which will influence market expectations for future Fed policy [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China have contributed to a decline in gold prices, with gold dropping nearly $500 from its recent high [4]. - Geopolitical uncertainties, particularly in the Middle East and South America, continue to provide some support for gold prices, as traditional hedging against uncertainty remains relevant [5][6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Short-term resistance levels for gold are identified at $4030-$4060 per ounce, with key resistance at $4090-$4115 per ounce; support levels are at $3950-$3900 per ounce and key support at $3800-$3750 per ounce [6]. - Domestic gold futures have shown significant volatility, with resistance seen at 930-950 CNY per gram and support at 900-890 CNY per gram [6].

本文黄金、白银等产品行情分析，以国际报价为基准；今日换算系数，国际金价/4.37≈国内金价。 昨天黄金冲高跳水，白盘在美联储降息预期带动下多头强势；欧盘最高冲击4030区域，美盘时段多头寸步难行，在美联储降息25基点落地后迎来跳水，日线 最终以倒锤头收盘。昨日强调短线止跌看反弹，但4020和5日线不破，会迎来打压；关注美联储利率指引。最终，黄金在刺破4020后被压制在50日线下，并 迎来大跌。 凌晨，如市场预期一样，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到3.75%至4.00%之间。这是美联储继9月17日降息25个基点后再次降息，也是自 2024年9月以来第五次降息。同时宣布将于12月1日结束缩表。但，随后美联储主席鲍威尔讲话被解读为"鹰派"，鲍威尔表示，美联储本次降息是"迈向更中 性政策立场的又一步"。"对于12月如何行动，我们的看法存在很大分歧，12月是否进一步降息远未成定局。" 在消息后，市场对12月份降息的概率由90%降低至70%。 当地时间10月30日中午，国家主席习近平在韩国釜山同美国总统特朗普举行会晤，会晤正式开始。在会晤前，不断有风声放出，这次会晤将会有很好的结 果；这给紧张的贸易局势 ...

Core Insights - The Chicago futures market for corn, wheat, and soybeans showed mixed price movements on October 29, with corn and wheat prices increasing while soybean prices declined [1][2] Group 1: Price Movements - The most actively traded December corn contract closed at $4.34 per bushel, up 2 cents or 0.46% from the previous trading day [1] - The December wheat contract closed at $5.32 per bushel, up 3.25 cents or 0.61% from the previous trading day [1] - The January 2026 soybean contract closed at $10.95 per bushel, down 0.75 cents or 0.07% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - The agricultural market has already priced in positive developments regarding trade situations, leading to a decline in soybean prices due to profit-taking [1] - Analysts suggest that unless severe drought occurs in South America, there is limited upside potential for crop prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - The current gold price fluctuations around $3960 are reminiscent of the historical patterns observed in 2011, suggesting a potential rebound after a temporary decline [1][3][4]. Market Sentiment - Recent declines in gold prices below the $4000 mark have caused anxiety among investors, with some predicting further drops to $3800 and declaring the end of the gold bull market [3]. - Historical data indicates that similar market conditions in 2011 led to a significant rebound in gold prices after initial declines, driven by Federal Reserve policies [3][4]. Policy Environment - The current monetary policy environment is more conducive to a rebound in gold prices, with expectations of the Federal Reserve halting or even expanding its balance sheet, similar to the QE measures in 2011 [3][4]. - Market expectations for a rate cut in October and a 60% probability for a December cut indicate a strong sentiment for monetary easing, which historically supports gold prices [3][4]. Technical Analysis - The technical patterns observed in the current gold price movements closely mirror those from 2011, with significant retracement levels and indicators suggesting a potential bottom [4]. - The current price levels around $3950-3940 represent a 50% retracement of the upward trend since July 2023, similar to the historical context where prices rebounded from key support levels [4]. Catalysts for Price Movement - Two potential catalysts for gold price increases include geopolitical risks, such as tensions involving Russia and the U.S., and unresolved trade issues that could drive investors to seek safe-haven assets [5]. - Historical parallels show that even when stock markets perform well, gold can still experience significant gains during periods of monetary easing [5]. Investment Strategy - A phased investment strategy is recommended, with incremental purchases at key price levels to mitigate risks associated with volatility, reflecting lessons learned from past market behaviors [6]. - The current market conditions are viewed as a "golden opportunity," with expectations for a rebound following the anticipated easing of monetary policy [6].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is under pressure due to trade uncertainties and a decrease in safe-haven demand, leading to a bearish outlook for gold in the near term [1][5]. Price Movements - Gold opened at $4,078.89 per ounce, reached a high of $4,108.76, and then fell to a low of $3,971.36 before closing at $3,981.20, marking a daily decline of $127.43 or 3.1% from the previous close of $4,108.63 [3]. - The price volatility for the day was $137.4, indicating significant fluctuations in the market [3]. Market Sentiment - Optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade relations is reducing the demand for gold as a safe haven, with the VIX index reflecting a decrease in market fears [5]. - Upcoming meetings between U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to further clarify trade agreement details, which may impact gold prices [5]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate that gold has reached a bearish resistance level, suggesting a potential decline towards $3,700 in the coming month [7]. - Weekly charts show a bearish reversal pattern, with expectations of further declines towards the 10-week moving average support around $3,850 [9]. - Daily charts indicate that gold has broken below the middle support level, with indicators suggesting continued bearish momentum unless it can stabilize above the 5-10 day moving averages [11]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3,950 and $3,900, while resistance levels are at $4,045 and $4,075 [11]. - For silver, support is noted at $46.65 and $45.90, with resistance at $47.75 and $48.20 [11].

分析认为，虽然对美联储10月降息的预期已经较为一致，但是美联储内部对于未来降息路径仍存在分歧。多位美联储官员强调仍需警惕通胀风 险，因为通胀仍高于美联储2%的目标。 此外，巴西总统卢拉表示，当天他在马来西亚首都吉隆坡与美国总统特朗普举行了富有建设性的会谈，两国相关团队将 "立即" 着手讨论关税及 其他议题。 卢拉称，巴美双方同意立即召开会议，就关税问题及针对巴西官员的制裁措施寻求解决方案。谈判将由巴西外长维埃拉主持，美国方面将由国务 卿鲁比奥和财政部长贝森特参与。 另外，美联储降息即将落地也促使一些投资者获利了结。本周，全球资本市场迎来"超级周"，10月30日，美联储将举行议息会议，市场普遍预计 将降息25个基点，把联邦基金利率下调至3.75%~4.00%区间，尤其是在近期美国通胀数据低于预期之后。投资者将重点关注美联储在决议后的措 辞，以捕捉未来利率下调幅度与速度的信号。 受周末贸易局势消息影响，今日早间（10月27日），黄金开盘后突然跳水。伦敦金跌逾1%，跌破4100美元，COMEX黄金也跌超1%。 国内金饰价格跟跌，老庙黄金足金饰品标价1211元/克，较前一日1228元/克的价格下跌17元/克。 美国总 ...

Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered Bank analyst Geoff Kendrick suggests that Bitcoin may temporarily dip below the $100,000 mark due to recent sell-offs triggered by trade tensions, although this downturn may not last long [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The potential drop below $100,000 is seen as "inevitable" in the short term, with the sell-off likely being brief [1][2]. - The rebound of Bitcoin may be influenced by the movements in gold prices, as a recent sharp decline in gold prices coincided with a brief rebound in Bitcoin [1][2]. - There is a possible trend of "selling gold and buying Bitcoin," which could continue in the medium term [1][2]. Group 2: Technical Indicators - Bitcoin has remained above its 50-week moving average since the beginning of 2023, indicating a potential buying opportunity if it dips below $100,000 [1][2].

Market Overview - The market is overshadowed by trade tensions and concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown, leading to mixed performance in U.S. stock futures and declines in European and Asian markets [1][2] - The S&P 500 futures rose nearly 0.1%, while the Dow futures increased by 0.04%, and the Nasdaq 100 futures saw a slight decline of 0.01% [2][7] Gold Market - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, with spot gold falling to below $4070 per ounce, marking a substantial decline of 6.3%, the largest intraday drop in over a decade [1][3][7] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to technical selling, as the market had been in an overbought condition since early September, despite a nearly 60% increase in gold prices year-to-date [3][4] Corporate Earnings - Investor sentiment is being influenced by improved corporate earnings reports, although uncertainties regarding trade prospects and the government shutdown remain [2] - Tesla is set to report its earnings, which will be closely watched as it marks the beginning of earnings reports from major tech companies [2] European Market - European stock indices opened lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index down by 0.27%, while the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 0.44% [7] - The market is reacting to mixed signals from corporate earnings and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [4][7] Cryptocurrency Market - Cryptocurrencies are experiencing declines, with Bitcoin down nearly 0.4% and Ethereum down approximately 0.9% [7]

Group 1 - Spot gold has reached a new historical high, breaking through $4,380 per ounce, with the gold ETF (159937) rising by 2.35% and over 60% increase year-to-date [1] - The gold ETF (159937) has seen continuous inflows, with a total inflow of 5.509 billion yuan in the last 10 days and a net inflow of 13.251 billion yuan year-to-date, bringing its latest scale to 39.257 billion yuan, ranking among the top in its category [1] - The rise in gold prices is primarily supported by market expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing safe-haven buying, with investors closely monitoring trade developments and upcoming U.S. inflation data [1] Group 2 - Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio recently expressed views on gold, suggesting that a reasonable allocation of gold in most investors' portfolios is between 10% to 15% [2] - Gold has increasingly replaced U.S. Treasury bonds in many investment portfolios, especially among central banks and large institutional investors, becoming a "risk-free asset" [2] - Historically, gold has proven to be a currency and store of wealth with intrinsic value, remaining resilient despite the disappearance of approximately 80% of global currencies since 1750 and severe devaluation of the remaining 20% [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the significant drop in gold and silver prices, with spot gold falling below $4200 per ounce and closing at $4251.45 per ounce on October 17 [1][4] - Domestic gold jewelry prices also decreased, with the price of pure gold jewelry from Laomiao dropping to 1262 RMB per gram, down from 1279 RMB per gram [3][4] - Analysts attribute the volatility in the gold market to a notable recovery in the US stock market and statements from the US government regarding trade issues [4] Group 2 - The recent surge in gold prices began in late August, with London gold spot prices increasing over 25% from August 21 to October 15, driven by rising global risk aversion and declining dollar credibility [4] - Several financial institutions, including the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, have issued risk warnings regarding the recent fluctuations in precious metal prices, advising investors to make rational investment decisions based on their financial situation and risk tolerance [4] - Market forecasts suggest that gold prices may continue to strengthen, with analysts from major banks predicting gold prices could reach $5000 per ounce by 2026, and Standard Chartered raising its average gold price forecast for next year to $4488 per ounce [5]