Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mill's hot metal production is decreasing, the arrival level this month has decreased, overall supply and demand is loose, port inventories are decreasing, and there will be policies to reduce crude steel production while the trade war is easing, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis indicates that the spot prices at Rizhao Port are at a premium to futures, which is bullish [2]. - Port inventories are 15,272.93 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, showing a neutral situation [2]. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - The net long position of the iron ore main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [2]. - With the reduction of domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans on the market, the iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Bullish Factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventories are decreasing [6]. - There are import losses [6]. - The prices of downstream steel products are rising, and the tolerance for high - priced raw materials is strong [6]. Bearish Factors - Future shipping volumes will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6]. Other Aspects - The report also includes information on iron ore port spot prices [8], iron ore basis [12], iron ore import profit [15], iron ore shipping volume [17], iron ore port and steel mill inventories [19], iron ore arrival and dispatch volumes [21], iron ore daily consumption [24], steel enterprise production [26], and iron ore port daily transactions and steel mill daily hot metal production [29].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mills' hot metal production has started to decline, the arrival level this month has decreased, the overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories have decreased, and there will be policies to reduce crude steel production, while the trade war has eased, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis shows that the spot - converted prices of Rizhao Port PB powder and Brazilian Blend are at a premium to futures, being bullish [2]. - Port inventories are 15,272.93 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, being neutral [2]. - The price is below the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is downward, being bearish [2]. - The net long position of the main iron ore contract has changed from short to long, being bullish [2]. - With the expected decrease in domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans, the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Factors Affecting Iron Ore Bullish factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventories have decreased [6]. - There are import losses [6]. - The downstream steel prices are rising and can bear high - priced raw materials [6]. Bearish factors - Future shipment volumes will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6]. 3.2. Market Indicators - **Iron ore port spot prices**: Not elaborated on in the provided content - **Iron ore basis**: Rizhao Port PB powder spot converted to the futures price is 825 with a basis of 49; Rizhao Port Brazilian Blend spot converted to the futures price is 846 with a basis of 70, and the spot is at a premium to the futures [2]. - **Iron ore import profit**: Not elaborated on in the provided content - **Iron ore shipment volume**: Future shipment volumes will increase [6]. - **Iron ore port and steel mill inventories**: Port inventories are 15,272.93 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year [2]. - **Iron ore arrival and clearance volumes**: Not elaborated on in the provided content - **Iron ore daily consumption**: Not elaborated on in the provided content - **Steel enterprise production situation**: Steel mills' hot metal production has started to decline [2]. - **Iron ore daily port transactions and steel mills' daily hot metal**: Not elaborated on in the provided content

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply and demand of iron ore are loose, with a decrease in port inventory. The market is expected to introduce crude steel production reduction policies, and the trade war has eased. The market is expected to be in a high - level shock state due to reduced domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans [2]. - The iron ore market presents a neutral to slightly positive situation considering factors such as basis, inventory, and market trends. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Steel mill hot metal production starts to decline, and the arrival level this month has decreased. Overall supply - demand is loose, port inventory has decreased, and policies on crude steel production reduction are expected. The trade war has eased, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 848, with a basis of 48. The spot price of Brazilian mixed ore at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 866, with a basis of 66. Spot prices are at a premium to futures, showing a positive situation [2]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory is 15,272.93 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, showing a neutral situation [2]. - **Market trend**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is flat, showing a positive situation [2]. - **Main positions**: The net long position of the main iron ore contract has decreased, showing a positive situation [2]. - **Expectation**: With reduced domestic demand and capacity - reduction plans, a high - level shock approach is expected [2]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive factors**: High hot metal production, reduced port inventory, import losses, and rising downstream steel prices leading to a stronger ability to bear high - priced raw materials [6]. - **Negative factors**: Increased future shipments and weak terminal demand [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mills' hot metal production has started to decline, the arrival level at ports this month has decreased, overall supply and demand are loose, port inventories have decreased, there will be policies to reduce crude steel production, and the trade war has eased, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis indicates that the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 845, with a basis of 41; the spot price of Brazilian mixed ore at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 864, with a basis of 60, showing that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - Regarding inventories, port inventories are 15,109.49 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The market price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is flat, which is bullish [2]. - The net long position of the main iron ore contract is increasing, which is bullish [2]. - The expectation is that domestic demand will decline, and the plan to reduce production capacity will impact the market, suggesting a high - level consolidation strategy [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bullish Factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventories are decreasing [6]. - There are import losses [6]. - The price of downstream steel products is rising, and the ability to bear high - priced raw materials is strong [6]. Bearish Factors - Later shipping volumes will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6]. Other Related Indicators - Iron ore port spot prices [8] - Iron ore futures - spot basis [13] - Iron ore import profit [16] - Iron ore shipping volume [19] - Iron ore port inventories and steel mill inventories [23] - Iron ore arrival and port clearance volume [28] - Iron ore daily consumption [31] - Steel enterprise production situation [33] - Iron ore daily port transactions and steel mills' daily hot metal production [36]

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - On October 28, spot gold prices fell to a three-week low of $3,886.51, primarily due to improved US-China trade negotiations, which diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1][4] - Gold prices experienced a significant drop of 3.2% last week, with a peak of $4,381.29 per ounce earlier in the month, indicating a volatile market influenced by trade optimism [4] - The current core tension in the gold market lies between expectations of policy easing supporting gold prices and rising risk appetite reducing demand for safe-haven assets [7] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose by 3% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflation above target levels, which provides room for "moderate rate cuts" [3] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in October have been fully priced in, with further cuts anticipated in December, although the direct support for gold prices may be limited [3] - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions regarding the pace of rate cuts could lead to market volatility, with some officials advocating for caution due to inflation concerns [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Recent escalations in the Middle East, particularly Israel's military actions in Gaza, have contributed to a 51% increase in gold prices this year, driven by geopolitical tensions [5] - The easing of trade tensions between the US and China has led to a preference for selling gold, further pressuring prices [4] Group 4: Oil Market Overview - International oil prices fell, with WTI crude down 2.23% to $60.05 per barrel and Brent crude down 2.77% to $63.87 per barrel, influenced by OPEC+ production increases and geopolitical uncertainties [8][11] - OPEC+ is discussing a moderate production increase plan for December, indicating a shift from years of production cuts to meet rising global energy demand [10]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mills' hot metal production is decreasing, the arrival level this month has decreased, overall supply and demand are loose, port inventories are decreasing, a crude steel production reduction policy is expected to be introduced, and the trade war is easing, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis indicates that the spot prices of PB powder and Brazilian blend at Rizhao Port are at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [2]. - Regarding inventory, port inventory is 15,109.49 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, showing a neutral situation [2]. - The price on the disk is above the 20 - day line while the 20 - day line is downward, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The net long position of the iron ore main contract is increasing, which is bullish [2]. - The expectation is that domestic demand is decreasing, and the plan to reduce production capacity will impact the market, suggesting a high - level oscillation strategy [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Bullish Factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventory is decreasing [6]. - There are import losses [6]. - The price of downstream steel products is rising, indicating a strong ability to bear high - priced raw materials [6]. Bearish Factors - Future shipping volume will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6]. Other Catalogs - **Iron ore port spot price**: The report mentions the spot prices of PB powder and Brazilian blend at Rizhao Port for basis calculation but does not elaborate further [2]. - **Iron ore basis**: The basis of PB powder at Rizhao Port is 46, and that of Brazilian blend is 64, with the spot at a premium to the futures [2]. - **Iron ore import profit**: The report mentions import losses as a bullish factor but does not provide specific data [6]. - **Iron ore shipping volume**: Future shipping volume is expected to increase as a bearish factor [6]. - **Iron ore port and steel mill inventory**: Port inventory is 15,109.49 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year [2]. - **Iron ore arrival and dispatch volume**: The report mentions that the arrival level this month has decreased but does not provide specific data [2]. - **Iron ore daily consumption**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Steel enterprise production situation**: Steel mills' hot metal production is decreasing [2]. - **Iron ore port daily trading volume and steel mills' daily hot metal**: Not mentioned in the report.

Market Overview - A-share market experienced a significant shift with retail investors aggressively buying into the technology sector, pushing the index to new highs, while institutional investors quietly reduced their holdings, indicating a potential "victory retreat" [2][7] - Positive signals from the US-China trade negotiations and expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut are contributing to a more optimistic market outlook [2][4][5] Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this week is as high as 98%, driven by high inflation and weak employment data, which necessitates economic stimulus [4] - The People's Bank of China responded by injecting 900 billion MLF, with a net injection of 200 billion, indicating a significant liquidity boost in the market [4] Sector Analysis - The electric equipment sector is emerging as a potential investment opportunity, with institutional investors beginning to position themselves in anticipation of policy benefits, despite current stock prices not reflecting this positive outlook [11] - Lithium battery prices are surging, with carbonate lithium futures exceeding 80,000 yuan/ton, and a significant increase in storage demand, leading to institutional buying in lithium stocks [13] - The storage chip market is experiencing prolonged price increases, with major players like Zhaoyi Innovation seeing repeated institutional buying, suggesting future growth potential in this sector [13] Investment Strategy - The current market dynamics present a "see-saw" situation between technology and energy sectors, with historical trends indicating that market movements often begin amidst uncertainty [14] - Investors are encouraged to consider whether to follow retail investors into the market or wait for institutional investors to signal a more stable entry point [14]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Short - term absolute prices of styrene will fluctuate. The rebound of crude oil prices drives the upward repair of chemical valuations, and it was previously suggested to stop loss on short positions. In October, due to overseas sanctions, some domestic major refineries may reduce production, with an expected loss of 2 - 4 million tons of pure benzene production. The port inventory accumulation expectations for pure benzene and styrene in October have turned into destocking expectations. The market mainly trades cost contradictions, and styrene is still weaker than pure benzene. The downstream 3s has entered a negative feedback stage, and the terminal downstream demand has not improved. Attention should be paid to whether the easing of the trade war after the Sino - US negotiations will bring marginal demand increments [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Changes**: The price of styrene 2512 decreased from 6.943 to 6.848, a change of - 95; styrene 2601 decreased from 6.974 to 6.875, a change of - 99; styrene 2610 increased from 7.374 to 7.387, a change of 13. EB - BZ increased from 1290 to 1315, a change of 25. Non - integrated profit decreased from - 131 to - 143, a change of - 12; integrated profit decreased from 756 to 689, a change of - 67. EB12 - EB01 increased from - 31 to - 27, a change of 4; EB01 - EB10 decreased from - 400 to - 512, a change of - 112. N + 1 contract decreased from 7480 to 7460, a change of - 20; N + 2 contract increased from 7370 to 7390, a change of 20 [1]. 3.2 Trend Strength - The trend strength of styrene is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend strength ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [1]. 3.3 Spot News - Short - term absolute prices of styrene will fluctuate. The rebound of crude oil prices drives the upward repair of chemical valuations, and short - position stop - loss was previously suggested. In October, due to overseas sanctions, some domestic major refineries may reduce production, with an expected loss of 2 - 4 million tons of pure benzene production. The port inventory accumulation expectations for pure benzene and styrene in October have turned into destocking expectations. The market mainly trades cost contradictions, and styrene is still weaker than pure benzene. The downstream 3s has entered a negative feedback stage, and the terminal downstream demand has not improved. Attention should be paid to whether the easing of the trade war after the Sino - US negotiations will bring marginal demand increments [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the prices of pure benzene and styrene will fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the incremental demand brought by the easing of the trade war [3][98]. - The empty orders should be stopped for profit. The rapid rebound of crude oil prices at a low level drives the upward repair of chemical valuations. In October, due to overseas sanctions, some domestic major refineries are expected to reduce their loads, with an estimated monthly production loss of 2 - 4 tons of pure benzene. The port inventory accumulation expectations for pure benzene and styrene in October have turned into destocking expectations [3][98]. - The market is mainly trading cost contradictions. Styrene is currently weaker than pure benzene, and the downstream 3S hard rubber has entered a negative feedback stage. The terminal downstream demand has not improved yet [3][98]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene - **Supply** - Domestic production: The maintenance loss in September was 60,000 tons, and after October - November, the maintenance will gradually decrease to about 30,000 - 50,000 tons. New production capacity of 56,000 tons was put into operation in September, and 25,000 tons and 41,000 tons will be put into operation in October and November respectively [3][98]. - Imports: The September import is expected to be 400,000 - 430,000 tons, and the import expectation will increase in the fourth quarter. The import in October is expected to be 500,000 tons, and high - level imports are expected from November to December [3][98]. - **Demand** - Caprolactam: CPL operation is gradually recovering, and the Guangxi Hengyi Qinzhou project is about to be put into operation. The downstream inventory of raw materials is at a neutral level [3][98]. - Phenol: Jilin Petrochemical's 200,000 - ton new device will be put into operation from October to November, and Shandong Ruilin plans to start production in October. The downstream PC maintains high demand [3][98]. - Aniline: Maintenance has ended one after another, and the operation rate has recovered [3][98]. - **Valuation** - The reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5,500 yuan/ton based on the crude oil price of $60 per barrel [3][98]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Stop empty orders for profit [3][98]. - Inter - period: None [3][98]. - Inter - variety: None [3][98]. Styrene - **Supply** - In September, the concentrated maintenance was 79,000 tons, mainly affected by Guangdong Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical. From October to November, there will still be an average monthly maintenance of 60,000 tons, mainly affected by Zhenhai Refining and Chemical and Satellite Petrochemical. New production capacity is expected to be put into operation in November by Jilin Petrochemical and Guangxi Petrochemical, with an average monthly incremental output of 40,000 tons. The phased supply will gradually decline from a high level [3][98]. - **Demand** - The downstream 3S hard rubber is in a negative feedback stage, with high production, high inventory, and low profit during the peak season, showing overall weakness [3][98]. - **Valuation** - The EB processing fee will expand profits in the short - term, but the space is limited, mainly fluctuating [3][98]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Stop empty orders for profit [3][98]. - Inter - period: None [3][98]. - Inter - variety: None [3][98].

Market Overview - US stocks experienced gains on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising approximately 0.7%, the S&P 500 increasing by 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite leading with an over 1% rise [1] Earnings Season - The focus of the market is shifting towards the earnings season, with high expectations for reports from major companies such as Tesla, Intel, Netflix, and Coca-Cola [2] - Zions Bancorp's third quarter results are anticipated, especially after recent concerns regarding bad loans linked to fraud [2] Trade Relations - A lull in trade tensions between the US and China has been noted, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicating that relations have "de-escalated" and talks are set to resume [3] - President Trump highlighted key issues in US-China relations, suggesting a potential easing of tariffs that were scheduled for November 1 [3] Government Shutdown - The US government shutdown has now entered its third week, with ongoing disputes over federal healthcare subsidies [4] - Economists warn that a prolonged shutdown could negatively impact near-term GDP growth, although any slowdown is expected to be temporary [4] Inflation and Federal Reserve - The government shutdown has delayed the release of critical inflation and jobs data, which are essential for Federal Reserve decision-making [5] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release September's Consumer Price Index, which could significantly influence the Fed's rate decisions [5] Amazon AWS Outage - Wall Street is assessing the impact of a major outage in Amazon's AWS, which affected various platforms including Robinhood and disrupted services for companies like United Airlines and Reddit [6] - AWS operations are reportedly returning to normal after the outage [6]