交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-8-26） 每日观点 铁矿石： 利多： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平有所降低，总体供需宽松，港口库存减少，市场 将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；中性 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价822，基差35；日照港巴混现货折合盘面价847，基差60，现货升水期 货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存14381.57万吨，环比增加，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方,20日线走平；偏多 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：国内需求降低，去产能的计划冲击市场，高位震荡思路 利空： 1.铁水产量保持高位。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 4.下游钢材价格上涨，高价原料承受能力强 1. 后期发 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-8-11） 每日观点 铁矿石： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平有所降低，总体供需宽松，港口库存减少，市场 将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；中性 利多： 利空： 1.铁水产量保持高位。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 4.下游钢材价格上涨，高价原料承受能力强 1. 后期发货量增加。 2. 终端需求依旧弱势。 铁矿石港口现货价格 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价812，基差38；日照港巴混现货折合盘面价832，基差58，现货升水期 货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存14267.27万吨，环比增加，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方,20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is mentioned in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints The overall view on iron ore is to think in a range with a slight upward bias. The fundamentals show that steel mill's hot metal production has started to decrease, the arrival level this month has decreased, the overall supply - demand is loose, port inventory has decreased, and there will be a crude steel reduction policy. The market situation is affected by factors such as the potential reduction of domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans. The basis shows that spot prices are at a premium to futures, and the inventory has increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. The price is above the 20 - day line with an upward 20 - day line, but the main position is net short with an increase in short positions [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoint - **Fundamentals**: Steel mill's hot metal production decreases, supply arrival level drops this month, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventory decreases, and there will be a crude steel reduction policy with trade war easing; neutral [2] - **Basis**: Rizhao Port PB powder spot converted to futures price is 827 with a basis of 4; Qingdao Port Chaote powder spot converted to futures price is 887 with a basis of 64, spot at a premium to futures; neutral [2] - **Inventory**: Port inventory is 14381.51 tons, increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year; neutral [2] - **Disk**: Price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is upward; bullish [2] - **Main Position**: Iron ore main position is net short with an increase in short positions; bearish [2] - **Expectation**: Domestic demand decreases, capacity - reduction plans impact the market, think in a range with a slight upward bias [2] Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: High hot metal production, decreasing port inventory, import losses, and rising downstream steel prices with strong tolerance for high - priced raw materials [6] - **Bearish Factors**: Increased future shipment volume and weak terminal demand [6] Other Catalogs - **Iron Ore Port Spot Price**: No specific content provided in the summary part [8] - **Iron Ore Futures - Spot Basis**: No specific content provided in the summary part [12] - **Iron Ore Import Profit**: No specific content provided in the summary part [14] - **Iron Ore Shipment Volume**: No specific content provided in the summary part [17] - **Iron Ore Port Inventory and Steel Mill Inventory**: No specific content provided in the summary part [20] - **Iron Ore Arrival Volume and Dredging Volume**: No specific content provided in the summary part [25] - **Iron Ore Daily Consumption**: No specific content provided in the summary part [28] - **Steel Enterprise Production Situation**: No specific content provided in the summary part [31] - **Iron Ore Port Daily Average Transaction and Steel Mill Daily Average Hot Metal**: No specific content provided in the summary part [34]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mill hot metal production is decreasing, the arrival level this month has dropped, the overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories are decreasing, there are rumors of crude steel reduction policies, and the trade war is easing, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis indicates that spot prices at Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port are at a premium to futures, showing a neutral state [2]. - Port inventories stand at 14,381.51 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, which is neutral [2]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is upward, showing a bullish tendency [2]. - The net position of the iron ore main contract is short, with short positions decreasing, showing a bearish tendency [2]. - With the expected decline in domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans on the market, the market is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Steel mill hot metal production decreases, supply arrival drops, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories decrease, there are rumors of crude steel reduction policies, and the trade war eases, neutral [2]. - **Basis**: Rizhao Port PB powder spot converted to futures price is 827, basis is 18; Qingdao Port Super Special powder spot converted to futures price is 887, basis is 78, spot at a premium to futures, neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory is 14,381.51 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, neutral [2]. - **Disk**: Price above 20 - day moving average and 20 - day moving average upward, bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: Net short position of the main iron ore contract, short positions decreasing, bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Domestic demand declines, capacity - reduction plans impact the market, market expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [2]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Likely to be Bullish**: High hot metal production, decreasing port inventories, import losses, rising downstream steel prices with strong tolerance for high - priced raw materials [6]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: Increased future shipments, weak terminal demand [6].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference primarily discusses the **oil and petrochemical sector** and its investment outlook, particularly focusing on the impact of oil prices and production adjustments by OPEC. - The discussion also touches on **chemical additives** and **agricultural chemicals**, highlighting market dynamics and pricing trends. Key Points on Oil and Petrochemical Sector - Oil prices have shown a trend of **decline followed by recovery** since May, influenced by OPEC's decision to increase production by approximately **40 million barrels** in June, which was above market expectations, creating downward pressure on prices [1][2]. - OPEC's production increase aligns with both its internal interests and the U.S. inflation control efforts, suggesting a strategic move to stabilize market share while addressing economic pressures [2][4]. - The **operating rate** in the petrochemical sector remains below **50%**, indicating a tightening supply domestically, while older power plants in Europe are also facing high energy costs, contributing to a global supply adjustment [6]. - Despite pressures, the market has adjusted expectations, and there is a belief that the sector will see a **long-term recovery** as it approaches a bottoming out phase [6][8]. - Companies like **Sinopec** and **CNOOC** are highlighted for their operational resilience despite falling oil prices, with Sinopec showing significant year-on-year growth [10]. Key Points on Chemical Additives and Agricultural Chemicals - The **demand for health-related additives** has increased, with significant growth in the first quarter driven by rising consumer health awareness [12]. - The **sugar substitute market** is experiencing robust demand, with companies in this sector seeing substantial year-on-year growth due to price increases and strong market demand [12]. - The **export cycle** for agricultural chemicals has been shortened this year, with a notable decrease in export volumes compared to last year, primarily due to regulatory changes [13][14]. - The **price disparity** between domestic and international markets for certain chemicals is significant, with domestic prices being over **1,000 yuan per ton** lower than international rates, indicating potential for export growth if regulations ease [14]. - The **herbicide market** is expected to benefit from tariff adjustments, which may enhance domestic producers' competitiveness in the U.S. market [41]. Additional Insights - The **chemical industry** is expected to see a **price increase** in the second half of the year as inventory levels normalize, with a projected demand growth rate of **8-10%** annually [11]. - The **organic silicon sector** is anticipated to grow despite previous trade tensions, with a long-term upward trend in demand expected as tariffs are adjusted [39]. - The **agricultural chemicals sector** is also poised for growth, particularly in products like glyphosate, which may see price increases due to supply constraints in the U.S. market [40][41]. - The **robotics materials sector** is highlighted for its potential growth, driven by increasing demand for advanced materials in robotics and automation applications [34]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the oil and petrochemical sector is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of recovery and growth in specific segments, particularly as market conditions stabilize and regulatory environments evolve. - The chemical additives and agricultural chemicals markets are also positioned for growth, driven by changing consumer preferences and favorable regulatory adjustments.

Summary of Key Points 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The overall supply and demand of iron ore are loose, with a decrease in port inventory. There are rumors of a crude steel production reduction policy, and the trade war has eased. The market is expected to be volatile with a slight upward trend, considering factors such as reduced domestic demand, decreased shipping volume, and domestic capacity - reduction plans [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - Steel mill hot metal production has started to decrease, and the monthly arrival level on the supply side has decreased. The overall supply - demand is loose, and port inventory has decreased [2]. 3.2 Basis Analysis - The spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 787, with a basis of 23; the spot price of Super Special powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures price is 855, with a basis of 91. The spot is at a premium to the futures [2]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - Port inventory is 14,485.9 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year [2]. 3.4 Market Trend Analysis - The price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [2]. 3.5 Main Position Analysis - The net position of the main iron ore contract is short, and the short position is decreasing [2]. 3.6 Expectation Analysis - Domestic demand is decreasing, shipping volume is decreasing, and domestic capacity - reduction plans will impact the market. The market is expected to be volatile with a slight upward trend [2]. 3.7 Factors Analysis - **Positive factors**: High hot metal production, decreasing port inventory, and import losses [5]. - **Negative factors**: Increased future shipping volume and weak terminal demand [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall supply - demand of iron ore is loose, with steel mills' hot metal production starting to decrease, and the monthly arrival level remaining relatively high. The port inventory is increasing, and there are rumors of crude steel production cut policies. The trade war situation is easing. Considering various factors such as basis, inventory, and market expectations, the market is expected to be volatile with a downward bias [2]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Steel mills' hot metal production is decreasing, supply - side arrival levels remain high this month, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventory is increasing, there are rumors of crude steel production cut policies, and the trade war is easing, all of which are bearish factors [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 744, with a basis of 35; the spot price of Chaote powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures price is 824, with a basis of 115. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory is 14480.23 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, which is a neutral factor [2]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main iron ore contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Domestic demand is decreasing and imports are increasing, so the market is expected to be volatile with a downward bias [2]. 3.2 Factors - **Bullish Factors**: High hot metal production, decreasing port inventory, and import losses [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: Increasing future shipments and weak terminal demand [5].

Report Overview - **Report Date**: June 30, 2025 - **Report Subject**: Iron Ore - **Report Author**: Hu Yuxiu from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - **Contact Information**: 0575 - 85226759 1. Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The overall supply - demand of iron ore is loose, with a decrease in steel mill's hot metal production and a high level of arrivals this month. The port inventory has increased, and there are rumors of crude steel production reduction policies. The market is expected to be volatile with a downward bias [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - The steel mill's hot metal production is decreasing, the supply side will maintain a relatively high level of arrivals this month, and the overall supply - demand is loose with an increase in port inventory. There are rumors of crude steel production reduction policies, and the trade war has eased, presenting a bearish outlook [2]. Basis Analysis - The spot price of Rizhao Port PB powder converted to the futures price is 743, with a basis of 26; the spot price of Qingdao Port Super Special powder converted to the futures price is 826, with a basis of 110. The spot is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [2]. Inventory Analysis - The port inventory is 14480.23 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, which is neutral [2]. Market Chart Analysis - The price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is flat, which is bullish [2]. Main Position Analysis - The net position of the main iron ore contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [2]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: High hot metal production, a decrease in port inventory, and import losses [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: An increase in later shipments and weak terminal demand [5].

Core Viewpoint - Synopsys shares rose over 5% following the announcement of a new trade framework between China and the U.S., which could positively impact the company's operations and growth prospects [1]. Group 1: Impact of Trade Relations - The thawing trade relations are significant for Synopsys as the company had to suspend its third-quarter and full-year guidance due to new U.S. export restrictions affecting sales to China [2]. - In the first half of fiscal 2025, Synopsys generated nearly 11% of its sales from the Chinese market, highlighting its reliance on this region [3]. Group 2: Merger with Ansys - The merger with Ansys is crucial for Synopsys' growth strategy, aiming to combine EDA solutions with engineering simulation software for semiconductor design [4]. - This merger would expand Synopsys' customer base into sectors such as automotive, aerospace, and industrial, leveraging Ansys' existing clientele [5]. Group 3: Investor Implications - There is currently no indication that export restrictions to China will be lifted, and it remains uncertain if China is using the merger approval delay as leverage in negotiations [7]. - Despite the uncertainties, the new trade framework represents a positive step that may lead to a resolution of the ongoing issues for Synopsys [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The overall supply - demand of iron ore is loose with reduced steel mill hot metal production, high arrival levels this month, increased port inventories, and rumors of crude steel reduction policies. The market is expected to be volatile and bearish due to decreased domestic demand and increased imports, although there are some bullish factors such as spot premium over futures and price above the 20 - day line [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoint - **Fundamentals**: Steel mill hot metal production is decreasing, supply arrival this month remains high, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories are increasing, there are rumors of crude steel reduction policies, and trade war eases, all being bearish factors [2]. - **Basis**: Rizhao Port PB powder spot converted to futures price is 735 with a basis of 30; Qingdao Port Super Special powder spot converted to futures price is 820 with a basis of 114, showing spot premium over futures, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory is 14433.56 tons, decreasing both on a month - on - month and year - on - year basis, considered neutral [2]. - **Market Chart**: The price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is flat, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position of iron ore is net short and short positions are decreasing, being bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: With decreased domestic demand and increased imports, the market is expected to be volatile and bearish [2]. Bullish Factors - High hot metal production [5]. - Decreased port inventory [5]. - Import losses [5]. Bearish Factors - Increased future shipment volume [5]. - Weak terminal demand [5]. Other Catalogs - **Iron Ore Port Spot Price**: Not elaborated in the report [7]. - **Iron Ore Futures - Spot Basis**: Not elaborated in the report [10]. - **Iron Ore Import Profit**: Not elaborated in the report [12]. - **Iron Ore Shipment Volume**: Not elaborated in the report [14]. - **Iron Ore Port Inventory and Steel Mill Inventory**: Not elaborated in the report [16]. - **Iron Ore Arrival and Dispatching Volume**: Not elaborated in the report [21]. - **Iron Ore Daily Consumption**: Not elaborated in the report [24]. - **Steel Enterprise Production Situation**: Not elaborated in the report [26]. - **Iron Ore Port Daily Transaction and Steel Mill Daily Hot Metal**: Not elaborated in the report [28].