同时，美国联邦政府近年来频频陷入"停摆"风波，也在一定程度上动摇了全球投资者对美债和美元资产 的信心，转而增加黄金配置。自10月1日，也就是美国联邦政府此次"停摆"以来，国际金价在5个交易日 里累计上涨3.39%，屡创新高。世界黄金协会7日最新发布的研报显示，全球实物黄金ETF在今年9月和 第三季度的资金流入量均创历史新高。今年第三季度，全球实物黄金ETF流入资金达260亿美元，其 中，北美地区投资者买入161亿美元，在所有主要市场中规模最大。 从中长期来看，全球央行推进资产配置多元化、不断增持黄金，正是金价近年来震荡上行的"中枢"力 量。根据世界黄金协会数据，过去三年来，全球央行每年增加的黄金储备都超过千吨，远高于此前十年 400吨至500吨的年均购金水平。 国际金价涨疯了！ 当地时间8日，黄金价格延续连日来涨势，再创盘中历史新高。纽约黄金期价在8日欧洲交易时段一度触 及每盎司4071.50美元，伦敦现货黄金价格一度触及每盎司4049.43美元，均创盘中历史新高。 截至北京时间8日20时25分，纽约商品交易所12月黄金期价报每盎司4060.60美元，涨幅为1.40%。伦敦 现货黄金报每盎司4037.35美元 ...

关于"美债是否仍是最佳稳妥金融资产"的争论，国内网络空间呈现出鲜明的两极化态势。要厘清争议需跳出非黑即白的思维框架，可观察各国央行及机构的 实际资金流向，这些掌握更全面信息的决策者用真金白银投出的"信任票"，往往比民间讨论更具参考价值。 据官方数据披露，2024年6月至2025年6月期间，外国主体持有的美国国债总额从8.3万亿美元攀升至9.13万亿美元，净增加规模达8300亿美元。 这一数据直观反映出，尽管市场存在对美债风险的担忧，但全球多数经济体并未大规模减持，反而呈现出净增持态势。这种"用脚投票"的结果，从侧面印证 了美债在全球金融体系中仍占据核心地位。 不过，具体到不同国家或地区，对美债的态度存在显著分化。 中国在此期间减持了部分美债，2024年6月中国持有美债规模为7.8万亿美元，至2025年6月降至7.56万亿美元，减持规模达2400亿美元。这种调整既反映了对 资产配置多元化的战略考量，也与全球地缘政治格局变动密切相关。 在增持方面，全球前十大美债增持主体的数据颇具启示性。2024年6月至2025年6月，开曼群岛、比利时、英国分列增持榜前三位，增持规模均超1000亿美 元，其中开曼群岛以1160亿美 ...

Joining us now is SEI chief investment officer Jim Schmeigel. Jim, uh, you talked earlier in the year about this wall of worry that the market had to climb. You even raised some concerns about private credit.I believe we're now in Q4. How much worry is left for this market. Well, there should be a lot more worry, I think, than what the market is actually uh showing us and that investors are really showing us.We uh I put out my quarterly piece today and the big theme is it's not about the volatility, it's ab ...

Core Insights - Ray Dalio emphasizes the importance of diversifying asset portfolios, suggesting a 10%-15% allocation to gold as a balance and risk hedge for individual investors [1][14] - He highlights the structural risks associated with high national debt, rising interest rates, and imbalances in bond supply and demand, using the U.S. as a case study [1][2] - Dalio identifies five driving forces behind the rise and fall of nations: debt/credit/money/economic cycles, domestic political order cycles, international geopolitical cycles, natural forces, and human learning and new technologies [1][2] Debt and Economic Implications - Dalio argues that debt issues are not just economic but also political and social problems, as rising debt servicing costs can lead to economic decline and internal conflict [2][3] - He critiques GDP as a measure of debt scale, advocating for a focus on the relationship between government revenue and debt repayment capacity [2][3] - In discussing China's debt, Dalio notes that it is primarily denominated in local currency and held domestically, providing some policy buffer, but warns of challenges from local government debt and real estate adjustments [2][12] Historical Context and Lessons - Dalio's analysis draws on historical debt cycles, asserting that economic issues often lead to political crises, as seen in the 1930s [3][4] - He emphasizes the importance of understanding historical patterns in debt cycles to inform current economic strategies [4][5] - The discussion includes insights from other experts on the interplay between capital markets, political systems, and global geopolitical dynamics [4][5] Investment Strategies - Dalio advocates for a diversified investment approach, particularly in the context of current economic volatility, suggesting that understanding the underlying mechanisms of asset performance is crucial [13][14] - He stresses the need for individuals to avoid speculative behavior and instead focus on maintaining a balanced asset allocation to mitigate risks [10][11] - The conversation highlights the significance of learning from historical financial principles to navigate contemporary investment challenges [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio, a renowned asset allocation master and founder of Bridgewater Associates, emphasizes the critical nature of debt cycles and their impact on national success or failure in his new book "Why Nations Succeed or Fail: The Big Cycle" [1][4][10] Group 1: Key Insights from Dalio's Work - Dalio identifies five key factors in understanding the "big debt cycle," with debt being the foremost element influencing a nation's economic and political stability [4][7] - The book provides a framework for understanding historical patterns in debt cycles, encouraging a long-term and rational perspective on future uncertainties [1][12] - Dalio's analysis suggests that economic issues stemming from unsustainable debt levels can lead to significant political turmoil, including civil wars and international conflicts [4][8] Group 2: Implications for Investors - Investors are advised to adopt a diversified asset allocation strategy to mitigate risks associated with economic fluctuations and debt cycles [14][16] - Dalio suggests that a balanced investment portfolio should include 10%-15% in gold as a hedge against debt-related risks and currency devaluation [17] - The importance of understanding the underlying mechanisms of asset performance is highlighted, as it can lead to more informed investment decisions [16][17] Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The discussion includes the current state of global debt, with countries like the U.S., Japan, and China facing significant debt challenges, each with unique characteristics [10][11] - Dalio points out that traditional measures of debt sustainability, such as the debt-to-GDP ratio, may not accurately reflect the true risks, advocating for a focus on money supply as a better indicator [10][11] - The necessity for governments to manage debt through restructuring and monetary policy is emphasized, as failure to do so could lead to severe economic consequences [13][14]

他表示，香港被视为避风港，又可以为市场提供理想资源，资本涌入香港，港股情况亦正反映这种势 头。 他续指，路线图体现政府与市场的共同承诺，巩固香港作为主要固定收益及货币中心的地位，确保市场 保持竞争力、包容性和全球联系，并指在地缘政治紧张、单边主义抬头情况下，香港再次吸引全球投资 者目光。国际投资者寻求资产配置多元化，类似DeepSeek的中国科技企业重新燃点市场对中国科技实 力和投资前景的乐观情绪。 智通财经APP获悉，9月25日，香港证监会与香港金管局联合举办首届"香港固定收益及货币论坛"。香 港财政司司长陈茂波在论坛上表示，今日稍后香港证监会和香港金管局将联合公布《固定收益及货币市 场发展路线图》，内容围绕4大重点领域10项举措，包括促进一级市场发行、增强二级市场流动性、拓 展离岸人民币业务以及构建新一代市场基础设施。 ...

9月24日，债券通"南向通"迎来四周年，作为连接内地与香港和国际金融市场的重要渠道，"南向通"进 一步提升了两地金融市场联通效率和一体化程度，在为内地投资者投资香港及全球金融市场提供便利的 同时，也为香港注入了新的活力和能量。 在彭博大中华区总裁汪大海看来，债券通"南向通"的正式上线，是标志着中国债券市场实现"南北双 向"互联互通的重要里程碑。"南向通"的开通和平稳运行，不仅巩固了香港市场在债券融资方面的地 位，还为境内投资者在境外市场进行多元化资产配置提供了宝贵机会。 对于境内机构而言，参与"南向通"也被视为一次"锻炼"。"金融机构通过参与该市场，提升了国际化经 营能力，适应了不同市场环境和监管制度。"有业内人士表示，这些机构投资决策和风险管理能力也得 到了提升，面对更多的投资选择和风险挑战，作出更明智的决策并采取有效的风险管理措施。此外，境 内机构在"南向通"市场注重产品创新和业务拓展，积极推出适应市场需求的创新产品，并与国际合作伙 伴合作拓展相关业务。 债券南向通优化扩容稳步推进 自债券"南向通"推出以来，相关措施也在不断优化。今年1月，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在亚洲金融论 坛上宣布了债券通"南向通"的一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing a prolonged downturn, raising concerns about future housing prices amidst increasing income pressure on households [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The price index for newly built residential properties in 70 major cities has decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, while the second-hand housing price index has dropped by 5.7%, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of decline [2] - In first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, housing prices are showing signs of fatigue, with some regions experiencing price declines exceeding 10%, reaching the lowest levels in nearly a decade [2] Group 2: Demographic Changes - By the end of 2024, China's population is projected to decrease by approximately 2.21 million, with the birth rate falling to a record low of 5.5‰ [3] - The population of the primary home-buying age group (25 to 45 years) is expected to decline by about 120 million over the next 20 years, leading to a significant drop in housing demand [3] Group 3: Urbanization and Market Challenges - China's urbanization rate has reached 66.5%, nearing developed country levels, but the pace of expansion is slowing [4] - There are nearly 50 million idle residential properties nationwide, with an average absorption period extending to 26 months, far exceeding healthy market standards [4] Group 4: Household Debt and Purchasing Power - As of Q1 2025, the household leverage ratio in China has risen to 64.7%, approaching the internationally recognized warning line [7] - The total household mortgage balance exceeds 38 trillion yuan, with an average mortgage burden of approximately 80,000 yuan per family, significantly constraining purchasing power and willingness to buy [7] Group 5: Local Government and Policy Responses - Despite the declining real estate market, local governments remain heavily reliant on land finance, with land transfer revenue still reaching 3.2 trillion yuan, accounting for about 24% of local fiscal revenue [8] - Over 200 cities have relaxed purchase and loan restrictions, with first-time home loan rates in major cities dropping to around 3.8%, a historical low [8] Group 6: Economic Transition and Income Constraints - In the first half of 2025, the actual growth rate of per capita disposable income for residents was only 2.7%, lower than GDP growth, leading to squeezed purchasing power [10] - Average monthly income in third and fourth-tier cities hovers around 5,000 yuan, creating a severe imbalance with local housing prices [10] Group 7: Employment and Skills Development - The internet economy's golden age has passed, with an average layoff rate of 15% in the internet sector and a 20% drop in starting salaries for fresh graduates compared to three years ago [11] - There is a growing demand for high-skilled talent in emerging fields, with a significant increase in users of vocational training and online education platforms [16] Group 8: Market Outlook and Consumer Behavior - Economists predict that the real estate market will continue to adjust over the next two years, with a potential further decline of 5-10% in housing prices [11] - A survey indicates that over 67% of respondents plan to postpone home purchases and invest more in education and skills, with 78.3% of young people prioritizing career competitiveness over buying a home [13]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley reports that U.S. investor interest in the Chinese stock market has reached its highest level since 2021, with over 90% of investors willing to increase their allocation to China [1][2] Group 1: Reasons for Increased Interest - The first reason is China's leading position in global technology, particularly in humanoid robots, automation, biotechnology, and drug development, which has gained global recognition [2] - The second reason is positive policy signals from the Chinese government, which aims to stabilize the economy and support the capital market, suggesting that the worst may be over [2] - The third reason is the significant improvement in liquidity conditions in the Chinese market, which supports a longer-lasting market rally [3] - The fourth reason is the rising demand for diversified asset allocation among global investors, as U.S. portfolios are highly concentrated in domestic markets, making diversification into Chinese assets a necessary choice [3] Group 2: Investment Preferences and Strategies - U.S. investors are particularly interested in sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, humanoid robots, automation, and new consumption [3] - Morgan Stanley notes that quantitative and macro funds have mentioned the convenience of participating in the Chinese market through A-share ETFs and index futures, especially when lacking resources for individual stock research [3] - The preferred order of investment for U.S. investors is American Depositary Receipts (ADRs), Hong Kong stocks, and A-shares [3] Group 3: Current Status of Capital Flow - Despite the increased interest, the process of U.S. capital flowing back into the Chinese market has just begun, with only slight increases in allocations to China from certain funds [4] - The report indicates that global and emerging market investors are primarily engaging with the Chinese market, suggesting potential for further increases in allocations [4] Group 4: Areas of Focus for Investors - Investors are advised to monitor inflation data and the real estate market, as it may take 10 to 12 months to digest the excess inventory in China's primary housing market [5] - The direction of policies is crucial, with a focus on stabilizing prices and promoting economic rebalancing, in addition to technology and high-end manufacturing [5] - The availability of hedging tools is essential for macro and quantitative funds to increase their participation in the A-share market [5] - Investors express a desire for greater participation in China's capital market activities, particularly in A-share IPOs, although foreign investors currently cannot participate in IPOs through the stock connect mechanism [6] Group 5: Geopolitical Considerations - Geopolitical factors, particularly U.S.-China relations, remain significant in influencing market volatility, with U.S. policy uncertainties potentially exacerbating market fluctuations [6] - Morgan Stanley assesses that the likelihood of more U.S. administrative orders is low, but any related news causing market declines could present buying opportunities for Chinese assets [6]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that American investors' interest in the Chinese stock market has reached its highest level since 2021, with over 90% of investors willing to increase their allocation to the Chinese market [2][4]. Group 1: Reasons for Increased Interest - Four main reasons drive the return of American funds to China: 1. China's leading position in global technology, particularly in humanoid robots, automation, biotechnology, and drug development [4]. 2. Positive policy signals from the Chinese government aimed at stabilizing the economy and supporting the capital market [4]. 3. Improved liquidity conditions in the Chinese market, which supports a longer-lasting market rally [5]. 4. Increased demand for diversified asset allocation among global investors, prompting a shift from a concentrated U.S. portfolio to include Chinese assets [5]. Group 2: Areas of Focus for American Investors - American investors are particularly interested in sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, humanoid robots, automation, and new consumption [6]. - The preferred methods for participating in the Chinese market include A-share ETFs and index futures, especially for those lacking resources for individual stock research [6]. Group 3: Current Status of Fund Flows - Despite the heightened interest, the process of American funds returning to the Chinese market is just beginning, with only slight increases in allocations observed in certain funds [8]. - The report indicates that global and emerging market investors are primarily engaging with the Chinese market, suggesting potential for further increases in allocations [8]. Group 4: Recommendations for Investors - Morgan Stanley suggests investors pay attention to: 1. Inflation data and the real estate market, noting that it may take 10 to 12 months to digest excess inventory in the primary housing market [9]. 2. Policy direction, emphasizing the need for continued focus on stabilizing prices and promoting economic rebalancing [10]. 3. The availability of hedging tools, which are crucial for macro and quantitative funds to increase their participation in the A-share market [9]. 4. The openness of the capital market, with investors seeking more opportunities to participate in A-share IPOs [10]. 5. Geopolitical factors, particularly U.S.-China relations, which remain a significant influence on market volatility [10].