证券代码：000932 证券简称：华菱钢铁 湖南华菱钢铁股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-14 | | 特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资者关系活 | □媒体采访 业绩说明会 | | | 动类别 | □新闻发布会 路演活动 | | | | 现场参观 电话会议 | | | | □其他（请文字说明其他活动内容） | | | 参与单位名称 | 易方达基金何进阳、涂程亮、胡致远、刘凯捷 | | | 及人员姓名 | | | | 时间 | 年 日 2025 8 25 | 月 | | 地点 | 湖南长沙湘府西路 号华菱主楼 会议室 222 601 | | | 接待人员姓名 | 刘笑非、王音 | | | | 1、公司销量下降是减产的要求还是主动减产？下半年的产销量指 | | | | 引？ | | | | 回复：随着政策严控粗钢产能、实施产量调控与钢企自律性减产一 | | | | 同发力，钢铁行业供给端或将持续收缩。今年上半年，公司完成钢材销 | | | | 量 1,110 万吨，同比下降 12.6%；若考虑钢材销量中未包含公司在国内直 | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the steel industry, indicating a favorable outlook for mid-term investment opportunities [6]. Core Insights - The steel industry is expected to experience high-quality and high-return development, driven by the "anti-involution" policy, which is anticipated to catalyze production cuts and stabilize steel prices, thereby enhancing profit margins for steel companies [9][21]. - The supply-side structural issues are likely to reverse, leading to a balanced supply-demand scenario that can stabilize industry profits [9][23]. - A significant oversupply of iron ore is expected in the mid-term, with a projected increase in supply outpacing demand, which will likely lead to a decline in iron ore prices and subsequently enhance profitability for steel companies [9][19]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The "anti-involution" policy was officially introduced in July 2024, aiming to prevent vicious competition in the steel industry, which has been significantly affected by declining demand and overcapacity [13][21]. Supply-Side Structural Issues - The report highlights that the ultra-low emission transformation in the steel industry is nearing completion, with over 76% of total capacity having undergone some form of transformation by July 2025 [30][32]. - The report anticipates that the completion of these transformations will help eliminate the "bad money drives out good" phenomenon, leading to a more equitable competitive environment [33][41]. Iron Ore Supply and Demand - The report forecasts a strong oversupply of iron ore, with supply growth expected to exceed 5% annually until 2026, while demand is projected to grow only modestly [9][19]. - This oversupply is expected to lead to a significant decline in iron ore prices, which will enhance the profitability of steel manufacturers [9][19]. Dividend Potential - The report suggests that with reduced capital expenditures and stable profits, steel companies are likely to increase their dividend payouts, indicating a shift towards high-quality, high-return development in the industry [9][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on steel companies with high gross profit elasticity, such as Shandong Steel and others, for short-term investments, while suggesting long-term investments in companies with stable dividend levels like Baosteel and Hualing Steel [9][24].

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry in Shanxi Province is undergoing a critical transition from traditional resource dependence to a green low-carbon model, which is essential for achieving the "dual carbon" goals set by the Chinese government [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Transition - The Shanxi steel industry is a significant pillar of the local economy, with crude steel production in 2024 expected to reach 60.28 million tons, accounting for approximately 6% of the national total [1]. - The industry is under pressure to implement ultra-low emissions transformations by the end of 2025, with only 6 companies having completed the full process of ultra-low emissions modification as of July 2025 [2]. - The introduction of carbon trading markets has increased the urgency for the steel industry to accelerate its green low-carbon transition [2]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - Current efforts in the Shanxi steel sector include exploring hydrogen metallurgy and short-process steelmaking, although these technologies have not yet been widely adopted [3]. - The utilization of scrap steel is identified as a crucial pathway for carbon reduction, with the potential to significantly lower carbon emissions in the steel industry [3]. Group 3: Financial Support and Challenges - Financial support is critical for the transformation of traditional industries, with an estimated funding requirement of approximately 148.3 billion yuan over the next decade for the Shanxi steel sector [4]. - The existing financial support mechanisms are facing challenges, including high financing costs and difficulties in accessing key energy and environmental data [5]. - Recommendations include optimizing the transition finance directory and developing long-term financial products aimed at facilitating a just transition for high-carbon industries [5].

Summary of the Conference Call for Fangda Special Steel Company Overview - Fangda Special Steel is located in Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, and is a comprehensive steel enterprise involved in mining, coking, sintering, ironmaking, steelmaking, and rolling processes. The company employs over 6,400 people and occupies approximately 3,300 acres, with an annual steel production capacity of about 4.2 million tons [3][4]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Fangda Special Steel reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 250 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 167.99%. Total profit reached 322 million yuan, up 184.03% year-on-year, primarily due to cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures [2][4]. - The gross profit margin improved to 4.04%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 75.2% [5]. Production and Sales Highlights - The production volume in Q1 2025 was 1.0276 million tons, with sales of 1.0286 million tons, achieving a production-sales rate of over 100% [6]. - Sales of construction materials increased by 4.73%, while engineering sales rose by 19.6% [6]. Industry Challenges and Responses - The steel industry faces challenges from anti-involution policies, which may lead to production cuts among some companies. Fangda Special Steel, due to its strong profitability, is likely to have production cut tasks assigned to less profitable subsidiaries to ensure stable operations [7][8]. - The company has completed ultra-low emission modifications, which increased costs by approximately 200 yuan per ton. Companies that have not completed these modifications may face elimination in the future [11][14]. Market Outlook - The demand for steel in the second half of 2025 is not expected to significantly increase, with price rises primarily driven by market sentiment rather than actual demand recovery [8]. - The company is closely monitoring national policies regarding supply-side adjustments to mitigate the impact of production cuts on its business [8]. Strategic Initiatives - Fangda Special Steel has entered the new energy vehicle supply chain through a partnership with CATL, focusing on electric chassis suspension components, which are currently in the sample supply stage [4][27]. - The company is actively seeking acquisition opportunities to expand its production capacity to 50 million tons [30]. Environmental and Capital Expenditure - Since 2017, Fangda Special Steel has invested over 2 billion yuan in ultra-low emission modifications, with current production costs around 120 yuan per ton. The capital expenditure for 2025 is projected to be between 600 million to 700 million yuan, including a 650 MW subcritical power generation project [33][34]. Shareholder Returns - The company has maintained a conservative cash flow management strategy over the past two years due to unfavorable industry conditions. However, with improved profitability, the minimum shareholder return is set at 30%, with potential increases to 50% or 70% depending on future performance [32]. Conclusion - Fangda Special Steel demonstrates strong financial performance and strategic initiatives to navigate industry challenges while focusing on environmental compliance and potential growth through acquisitions and partnerships. The outlook for the steel market remains cautious, with a focus on adapting to policy changes and market dynamics.

Industry Overview - The steel industry is currently in a downward cycle that began in mid-2022, with a loss ratio of 26.14% among large and medium-sized steel enterprises, although this has narrowed year-on-year [2][3] - Demand for steel is expected to decline slowly in the long term, but there are structural opportunities in manufacturing, shipbuilding, wind power, silicon steel, and new energy vehicles [2][3] - The cost of raw materials like coking coal has decreased by 32% in the first half of the year, improving the supply-demand balance and leading to a downward shift in price levels [2][3] Government Policies - The government has emphasized the need to regulate the steel industry to combat "involution" and has proposed continuous control of crude steel production [3] - The new 2025 version of the "Steel Industry Normative Conditions" aims to promote high-quality development through optimization and elimination of outdated capacity [3] VAMA's Market Position - VAMA focuses on the high-end automotive steel market, having developed 137 steel grades since its inception in 2014, including advanced high-strength steel (AHSS) and ultra-high-strength steel (UHSS) [5][6] - VAMA's sales to new energy vehicle manufacturers have been increasing, with both Phase I and II of production nearly at full capacity [5][6] Future Developments - VAMA plans to introduce 24 advanced steel grades, including Ductibor®1500 and Fortiform® series, to enhance its competitive edge [8][9] - The third phase of VAMA's project is progressing, with plans to incorporate advanced vacuum coating technology (JVD technology) to improve production capabilities [10][11] Financial Performance - The company has maintained a leading profitability level in the industry, despite fluctuations due to transitional factors and maintenance schedules [12][13] - The cash dividend for 2024 is set at 1.00 yuan per 10 shares, with a payout ratio of 34%, which is an increase of 2.7 percentage points from the previous year [19] R&D Investment - The company has significantly increased R&D investment to support the development of new products and maintain competitiveness in high-end steel markets [16][17] - R&D expenses typically exceed 3% of revenue for large and medium-sized steel enterprises, reflecting the industry's commitment to innovation [17]

Group 1: Investment and Project Development - The company is investing significantly in new projects, particularly in the development of large-diameter seamless steel pipes to meet high-end demands in sectors such as oil casing and new energy transportation [2] - The company aims to enhance the competitiveness of its seamless steel pipe products by reducing costs and improving quality through the implementation of advanced technologies [2] - In the silicon steel sector, the company has established itself as the largest supplier of silicon steel base materials in China, with an annual production capacity of approximately 180,000 tons [3] Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Demand - The company's profitability has shown improvement in the second quarter, with stable demand and orders across various sectors, although there is a noted weakness in real estate and infrastructure [2] - The automotive board joint venture, VAMA, has reached full production capacity, with a combined output of approximately 1.6 million tons from its first two phases [4] - The company plans to allocate approximately 5.467 billion yuan for new projects in 2025, focusing on product structure upgrades and digital transformation [5] Group 3: Taxation and Financial Outlook - The company's income tax expenses increased in the first quarter of 2025 due to higher profits and tax adjustments, with a corporate tax rate of 15% for its high-tech subsidiaries [6] - The cash dividend for 2024 is set at 1.00 yuan per 10 shares, representing 34% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, an increase of 2.7 percentage points from the previous year [5] - The company anticipates a potential increase in dividend payout ratios post-2026, following the completion of low-emission transformation projects [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the steel sector, highlighting strong price performance and potential recovery in profitability for steel companies [5][6]. Core Insights - The "anti-involution" policy continues to influence the market, leading to stronger expectations for supply-side constraints and supporting higher steel prices [5]. - As of July 11, 2025, steel prices have increased, with notable rises in various categories such as rebar and hot-rolled steel [3][11]. - The report indicates a decrease in steel production and inventory levels, suggesting a tightening supply situation [4][5]. Price Summary - As of July 11, 2025, the prices for key steel products are as follows: - Rebar (20mm HRB400): 3,240 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton from last week - High-line (8.0mm): 3,410 CNY/ton, up 50 CNY/ton - Hot-rolled (3.0mm): 3,350 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton - Cold-rolled (1.0mm): 3,680 CNY/ton, up 70 CNY/ton - Common medium plate (20mm): 3,330 CNY/ton, up 10 CNY/ton [3][11][12]. Production and Inventory - As of July 11, 2025, total steel production for the five major categories was 8.73 million tons, a decrease of 124,400 tons week-on-week [4]. - Total social inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 20,200 tons to 9.1278 million tons, while steel mill inventory increased by 17,700 tons to 4.2557 million tons [4]. Profitability Analysis - The report notes fluctuations in steel profitability, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel margins changing by -14 CNY/ton, -13 CNY/ton, and +33 CNY/ton respectively week-on-week [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their performance and market position: - For flat steel: Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel - For special steel: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co. - For pipe materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Wujin Stainless Steel - Additionally, it suggests paying attention to high-temperature alloy companies like Fushun Special Steel [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the steel sector, highlighting specific companies within the industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that iron water remains at a high level, with strong cost support. Although there is a long-term downward trend in iron water, the short-term decline is relatively slow. The supply of iron ore has not yet been released, solidifying the cost bottom in the short term [3][4]. - The overall production and inventory levels of steel are at low points year-on-year, with no significant supply-demand contradictions. The profitability of steel companies is expected to recover due to the optimization of crude steel supply and the gradual release of new iron ore production capacity [3][4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of June 27, steel prices showed mixed trends, with rebar prices at 3,090 CNY/ton (up 20 CNY), high line prices at 3,300 CNY/ton (up 30 CNY), hot-rolled prices stable at 3,240 CNY/ton, cold-rolled prices down 20 CNY to 3,490 CNY/ton, and medium plate prices down 20 CNY to 3,280 CNY/ton [1][10][11]. Production and Inventory - The total production of five major steel varieties reached 8.81 million tons, an increase of 124,800 tons week-on-week. The apparent consumption of rebar was estimated at 2.1991 million tons, up 0.72 million tons from the previous week [2][3]. Profitability - The report estimates that the gross profit for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel changed by +1 CNY/ton, +5 CNY/ton, and -21 CNY/ton respectively compared to the previous week. Electric arc furnace steel saw a decrease of 6 CNY/ton in gross profit [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: 1. General steel sector: Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel 2. Special steel sector: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co. 3. Pipe materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Wujin Stainless Steel - Suggested to pay attention to high-temperature alloy stocks: Fushun Special Steel [3][4]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - Baosteel (600019.SH): EPS forecast for 2024A at 0.34 CNY, PE at 19, rated as "Buy" - Hualing Steel (000932.SZ): EPS forecast for 2024A at 0.29 CNY, PE at 15, rated as "Buy" - Nanjing Steel (600282.SH): EPS forecast for 2024A at 0.37 CNY, PE at 11, rated as "Buy" [3].

Group 1: Market Demand and Pricing - From Q3 2024, domestic steel demand has been insufficient, with supply exceeding demand, leading to a decline in unit gross profit and sales volume in Q3 2024. However, Q4 2024 is expected to see improved market conditions with maximum production and sales volume [1] - In 2024, the prices of raw materials decreased: iron ore by 5.61%, coking coal by 12.38%, and coke by 14.73%, while the comprehensive steel sales price dropped by 9.41%. This resulted in a narrowing of the company's gross profit margin [2] Group 2: Product Structure and Self-Generation - The company’s main steel products include construction materials, metal products, medium and heavy plates, high-quality round steel, and H-beams. The proportion of industrial steel is expected to exceed 58% in 2025 [2] - Self-generated electricity ratios are as follows: Sanming base at 97.6%, Quanzhou at 58.01%, and Luoyuan at 47.39% for 2024 [2] Group 3: Production Capacity and Emission Control - The company operates three production bases: Sanming, Quanzhou, and Luoyuan. Clean transportation modifications and assessments have been completed at Sanming and Luoyuan, while Quanzhou is expected to complete public disclosure by Q3 2025 [3] - Most organized and unorganized emission control modifications are nearing completion, with most expected to be publicly disclosed by the end of 2025 [3] Group 4: Scrap Steel and Cost Management - The amount of scrap steel added to the converter remains stable, typically between 810-880 kg/ton, with adjustments made based on actual conditions [3] - Self-produced coke is generally cheaper than purchased coke, but there are instances where self-production costs exceed those of external purchases. The company maintains a coking plant with an annual output of approximately 900,000 tons, with any shortfall covered by external purchases [4]

Financial Performance - The company's income tax expenses increased year-on-year in Q1 2025 due to profit growth and tax reconciliation, while other income decreased, impacting overall profitability [2] - The effective corporate income tax rate remains at 15% for high-tech enterprises, with expectations for Q2 tax expenses and VAT deductions to stabilize [2] Market Strategy - The subsidiary Yangchun New Steel maintains a low-cost operational strategy, achieving a leading market share and sales price in Guangdong despite the downturn in the real estate sector [2][3] - The company has no immediate strategic adjustments planned, focusing on maintaining profitability in the rebar market [3] Export and Trade Impact - The company's export volume to the U.S. is minimal, accounting for only 0.8% of total exports in 2024, with overseas revenue making up about 7% of total income [4] - The company continues to monitor international trade policies and adjust its export strategies accordingly [4] Environmental Initiatives - The company is on track to complete ultra-low emission upgrades by the end of June 2025, aiming for an environmental performance rating of A by year-end [5] - Capital expenditures for 2025 are projected at 5.467 billion yuan, focusing on product structure upgrades and digital transformation [5] Product Development - The first phase of the silicon steel project has reached full production capacity, contributing positively to the company's performance [6][7] - The automotive sheet joint venture has achieved full production, with plans for further development and product certification [7] Financial Returns - For 2024, the company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.00 yuan per 10 shares, representing 34% of net profit, an increase of 2.7 percentage points from the previous year [5] - The total planned share buyback and dividend payout will account for 44%-54% of the company's net profit for 2024 [5]