Core Concepts - Trend following is not blind speculation; it emphasizes acting in accordance with market trends and avoiding counter-trend operations [1] - Price reflects all fundamentals, sentiment, and policies, ultimately manifesting in price trends [2] - Cut losses quickly and let profits run; quickly stop losses on losing trades while holding profitable trades until the trend ends [3] - Trends have inertia; once established, they are more likely to continue than to reverse [4] - Do not predict; instead, react to market signals and follow trends [5] Trend Identification - Moving Average System: A bullish signal occurs when a short-term moving average crosses above a long-term moving average (e.g., 5-day > 20-day) [6] - Channel Breakout: Enter long when price breaks above the N-day high and short when it breaks below the N-day low [6] - Momentum Indicators: An expanding MACD histogram indicates trend acceleration [6] - Trend Structure: Higher highs and higher lows indicate an uptrend, while lower highs and lower lows indicate a downtrend [6] - Volatility Confirmation: A breakout of the Average True Range (ATR) from recent averages signals trend initiation [6] Strategy Execution - Entry Rules: Enter trades on price breakouts with increased volume or on pullbacks to moving averages [7] - Position Sizing: Limit single trade risk to 1% of total capital [7] - Stop Loss Settings: Use volatility-based stops (±2 times ATR) or structural stops based on previous highs/lows [7] - Profit Taking Logic: Implement trailing stops based on a percentage retracement from the highest price [7] - Multi-Market Adaptation: Different strategies for various asset classes, such as focusing on moving averages for stock index futures and momentum indicators for cryptocurrencies [7] Risk Management - Diversification: Hold 5-10 non-correlated trend positions simultaneously [8] - Leverage Control: Limit futures leverage to 5 times and cryptocurrency leverage to 3 times [8] - Drawdown Triggers: Enforce a 50% reduction in positions if account drawdown reaches 15% [8] - Correlation Monitoring: Reduce positions if the correlation coefficient among holdings exceeds 0.7 [8] Cognitive Misconceptions - Trend following is not equivalent to long-term holding; exit immediately when a trend ends [9] - Holding periods typically range from days to months, not high-frequency trading [9] - Avoid over-optimization, which can lead to failure in real trading [9] - Emotional interference can lead to premature exits; adhere to trailing stops [9] Practical Cases - Oil Price Crash 2020: Trend signals indicated a short position after breaking the 200-day moving average [10] - Nvidia AI Surge 2024: Trend initiation was confirmed by a weekly MACD crossover [10] - Federal Reserve Rate Hikes: The dollar index rose 15% during the 2022 rate hike cycle, validating breakout strategies [10] - Bitcoin Halving Trends: Historical data shows significant price increases following halving events [10]

港股精选组合年内上涨 43.22%，相对恒生指数超额 22.88% 核心观点 金融工程周报 港股精选组合绩效回顾 本周，港股精选组合绝对收益 1.35%，相对恒生指数超额收益 0.42%。 本年，港股精选组合绝对收益 43.22%，相对恒生指数超额收益 22.88%。 港股市场创新高热点板块跟踪 我们根据分析师关注度、股价相对强弱、股价路径平稳性、创新高连续性等 角度在过去 20 个交易日创出过 250 日新高的股票池中筛选出平稳创新高股 票。 证券研究报告 | 2025年07月12日 港股投资周报 近期，国泰海通等股票平稳创出新高。 按照板块来看，创新高股票数量最多的是大金融板块，其次为医药、消费、 科技和周期板块，具体个股信息可参照正文。高股票数量最多的是消费，其 次为医药、科技、大金融、周期和制造板块，具体个股信息可参见正文。 港股市场一周回顾 宽基指数方面，本周恒生小型股指数收益最高，累计收益 2.59%；恒生科技 指数收益最低，累计收益 0.62%。 行业指数方面，本周工业行业收益最高，累计收益 3.30%；原材料业行业收 益最低，累计收益-4.18%。 概念板块方面，本周本地券商概念板块收益最高， ...

报 告 摘 要 乘势而起：市场新高趋势追踪 触及新高的个股、行业和板块可被视为市场的风向标。越来越多的研究表明动量、趋势跟踪策略的有效性。本报告旨在定期跟踪市场中创新高的个股及其 分布，以追踪市场趋势、把握市场热点。 截至2025年7月11日，上证指数、深证成指、沪深300、中证500、中证1000、中证2000、创业板指、科创50指数250日新高距离分别为0.00%、 6.95%、5.67%、4.79%、2.28%、0.00%、13.46%、11.75%。中信一级行业指数中电力及公用事业、钢铁、综合金融、医药、有色金属行业指数距 离250日新高较近，食品饮料、煤炭、消费者服务、汽车、石油石化行业指数距离250日新高较远。概念指数中，创新药、钢铁、区块链、CRO、可转债 正股、万得全A等权、万得全A等概念指数距离250日新高较近。 见微知著：利用创新高个股进行市场监测 截至2025年7月11日，共873只股票在过去20个交易日间创出250日新高。其中创新高个股数量最多的是基础化工、机械、医药行业，创新高个股数量占 比最高的是银行、综合金融、国防军工行业。按照板块分布来看，本周制造、周期板块创新高股票数量最多； ...

**Minkel's**: **Minkel's**: **Minkel's**: **Minkel's**: **Minkel's**: **Minkel's**: **Minkel's**: **Minkel's**: **Minkel's**: **Minkel's**: **Minkel's**: **Minkel's**: **Minkel's**: **Minkel's**: **Minkel's**: **Minkel's**: **Minkel's**: **Minkel's**: **Minkel's**: **Minkel's**: **Minkel's**: **Minkel's**: **Minkel's**: **Minkel's**: **Minkel's**: **Minkel's**: **Minkel's**: **Minkel's**: **Minkel's**: **Minkel's**: **Minkel's**: **Minkel's**: **Minkel's**: **Minkel's**: **Minkel's**: **Minkel 证券研究报告 | 2025 ...

乘势而起：市场新高趋势追踪 触及新高的个股、行业和板块可被视为市场的风向标。越来越多的研究表明动量、趋势跟踪策略的有效性。本报告旨在定期跟踪市场中创新高的个股及其 分布，以追踪市场趋势、把握市场热点。 截至2025年6月13日，上证指数、深证成指、沪深300、中证500、中证1000、中证2000、创业板指、科创50指数250日新高距离分别为3.23%、 11.94%、9.21%、9.33%、7.65%、4.96%、19.86%、13.66%。中信一级行业指数中有色金属、银行、医药、农林牧渔、电力及公用事业行业指数距 离250日新高较近，煤炭、房地产、食品饮料、消费者服务、电力设备及新能源行业指数距离250日新高较远。概念指数中，黄金、银行、数字货币、创新 药、制药、银行精选等概念指数距离250日新高较近。 见微知著：利用创新高个股进行市场监测 截至2025年6月13日，共838只股票在过去20个交易日间创出250日新高。其中创新高个股数量最多的是医药、基础化工、机械行业，创新高个股数量占 比最高的是银行、纺织服装、医药行业。按照板块分布来看，本周制造、周期板块创新高股票数量最多；按照指数分布来看，中证200 ...

金 金融工程点评 [Table_Title] 房地产相对指数趋势跟踪模型效果点评 [Table_Author] 证券分析师：刘晓锋 电话：13401163428 E-MAIL：liuxf@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190522090001 研究助理：孙弋轩 电话：18910596766 E-MAIL：sunyixuan@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编码：S1190123080008 模型概述 结果评估： 区间年化收益：2.22% 波动率（年化）：23.52% 夏普率：0.09 最大回撤：17.24% 指数期间总回报率：-26.63% [Table_Message]2025-06-05 太 平 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 模型策略适用情况总结：在 2023 年 3 月 7 日至 2023 年 6 月 2 日及 2023 年 7 月 19 日至 2023 年 11 月 10 日期间，模型表现良好，模型整体呈现上升趋势， 模型处于正收益通道；2024 年 4 月 25 日至 2024 年 9 月 13 日，模型净值整 体处于下降趋势，无法取得累计收益。跟踪 ...

Core Insights - The article explores the lives and strategies of some of the most famous futures traders, highlighting their innovative methods, risk management techniques, and discipline, which provide valuable lessons for traders and investors [1][13]. Group 1: Richard Dennis - Richard Dennis, known as the "King of Trading," turned a small loan into over $200 million by his early 30s and is famous for the "Turtle Traders" experiment, proving that trading can be taught [2][4]. - His breakout strategy involves buying when prices break above a certain level and selling when they fall below, based on the assumption that trends tend to continue [4]. - Dennis emphasizes strict risk management, typically risking only 1-2% of his capital on any single trade, which helps him survive consecutive losses [4]. - He adjusts position sizes based on market volatility, increasing positions in low-volatility markets and decreasing them in high-volatility ones [4]. - Quick stop-loss orders are a key rule for Dennis, ensuring that losses are kept to a minimum [4]. Group 2: Paul Tudor Jones - Paul Tudor Jones, founder of Tudor Investment Corp, is renowned for predicting and profiting from the 1987 stock market crash, reportedly tripling his funds that day [2][6]. - His global macro trading strategy involves making large bets across multiple asset classes based on macroeconomic trends, including futures [6]. - Jones values technical analysis alongside macroeconomic analysis, looking for chart patterns and signals for entry and exit points [6]. - He often takes contrarian positions, betting against prevailing market sentiment, believing that the best investment opportunities arise when market consensus is wrong [6]. - Dynamic risk management is central to his strategy, involving strict stop-losses and adjusting position sizes based on market volatility and confidence in trades [6]. Group 3: John W. Henry - John W. Henry, a legendary futures trader and owner of the Boston Red Sox and Liverpool FC, is known for his systematic, algorithm-driven trading approach [3][8]. - His trading strategy is based on systematic trend following, focusing on a wide range of futures markets to diversify risk and capture various market trends [8]. - Henry implements strict risk management rules, including capital allocation limits per trade and using stop-loss orders to protect against significant losses [8]. - He adopts a long-term perspective, willing to hold positions through drawdowns, believing in the long-term profitability of his strategies [8]. - Continuous research and development are crucial to his success, as he adapts his trading systems based on historical data and market behavior [8]. Group 4: Ed Seykota - Ed Seykota, an influential futures trader, is recognized for developing and implementing computerized trading systems in the 1970s [3][10]. - His strategy combines systematic trend following with emotional discipline, using automated systems to generate trading signals based on technical indicators and historical data [10]. - Seykota emphasizes the importance of position management in risk control, adjusting trade sizes based on market volatility to prevent significant damage to the overall portfolio [10]. - He is known for his focus on trading psychology, stressing the need to manage emotions and adhere to trading systems even during losing periods [10]. - Quick stop-loss orders are central to Seykota's strategy, allowing for rapid exits from losing trades to prevent small losses from escalating [10]. Group 5: Larry Williams - Larry Williams, a renowned commodity and futures trader, is famous for his short-term trading strategies and winning multiple trading competitions [3][12]. - His strategy focuses on short-term trading and precise market timing, particularly in commodity futures [12]. - Williams utilizes seasonal patterns in commodities as part of his trading approach [12]. - He emphasizes risk control, likening traders to warriors who need shields to protect themselves from losses, advocating for strong capital management [12]. - Williams believes that trading strategies should be personalized, akin to finding the right pair of shoes that fit well, rather than adhering to universally accepted methods [12].

（原标题：和讯投顾都业华：芒格思维模型59 红皇后效应） 接下来，我们来探讨一个有趣的思维模型——红皇后效应。不知道大家是否看过《爱丽丝梦游奇境 记》，小时候我读过这本书，后来国外还拍了一部电影。红皇后效应正是来源于电影中的一句台 词："只有努力奔跑，你才能停留在原地。如果你想走得更远，就必须以两倍的速度奔跑。如果你停止 奔跑，你就会被甩在后面。" 这句话最初是由一位美国心理学家提出的。 第二个例子是所谓的"打板"策略。这种策略也在不断更迭。老的游资如果思路跟不上市场变化，就会被 淘汰。现在大家经常提到某某营业部很厉害，比如呼家楼等。然而，与过去相比，像宁波解放南路、深 圳红岭等曾经辉煌的营业部，如今已经不太被提及了。这就是不同时代下的不同玩法。营业部的人员也 在不断更迭，跟不上的人逐渐被淘汰，而新人不断涌现。这种不断更迭的现象，同样体现了红皇后效 应。 如果你身处这样的赛道，你别无选择，只能拼命奔跑。否则，你就会被淘汰。贝索斯曾经说过，虽然他 也认同要不断适应变化，但亚马逊更关注的是在众多变化中，有没有什么是相对不变的。他强调要盯住 那些不变的东西。如果想避免红皇后效应这种拼命奔跑、内卷的状态，我们需要思考 ...

报 告 摘 要 乘势而起：市场新高趋势追踪 一 乘势而起：市场新高趋势追踪 触及新高的个股、行业和板块可被视为市场的风向标。越来越多的研究表明动量、趋势跟踪策略的有效性。本报告旨在定期跟踪市场中创新高的个股及其分 布，以追踪市场趋势、把握市场热点。 [George@2004] 发现股票价格在接近52周最高价时其未来收益显著高于股价离52周最高价较远的股票的收益。威廉·欧奈尔在其成长股选股体系CANSLIM 中的字母L即是 Leader 的意思，强调要买不断创新高的股票。马克·米勒维尼在《股票魔法师》中也提出要重点关注"最近52周新高"的股票，同时也需要关 注在股市下跌中表现不错并接近最近一年价格高点的股票。本报告中统一使用250日新高距离来表示创新高情况，具体计算方法如下 ： 触及新高的个股、行业和板块可被视为市场的风向标。越来越多的研究表明动量、趋势跟踪策略的有效性。本报告旨在定期跟踪市场中创新高的个股及其 分布，以追踪市场趋势、把握市场热点。 截至2025年5月23日，上证指数、深证成指、沪深300、中证500、中证1000、中证2000、创业板指、科创50指数250日新高距离分别为4.05%、 11.8 ...

[Table_Title] 美容护理指数趋势跟踪模型效果点评 [Table_Author] 证券分析师：刘晓锋 电话：13401163428 E-MAIL：liuxf@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190522090001 研究助理：孙弋轩 金 金融工程点评 电话：18910596766 E-MAIL：sunyixuan@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编码：S1190123080008 模型概述 结果评估： 区间年化收益：-1.22% 波动率（年化）：30.79% 夏普率：-0.04 最大回撤：39.17% 指数期间总回报率：-33.91% [Table_Message]2025-05-21 太 平 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Summary] 资料来源：Wind，太平洋研究院 资源来源：Wind，太平洋研究院 图表 3 回撤（绝对值） 图表 4 最大回撤（绝对值） 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% 45.00% 2023-03-07 2023-04-13 2 ...