宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量深度 2026 年 3 月 4 日 2025 年 CPI 权重更新 2026 年 CPI 同比增速或仍将承压 2026 年开始到 2030 年的五年，将使用 2025 年作为对比基期；统计局公布了 八个大类的权重，我们以 2025 年数据为主、2022 年-2024 年数据为辅，计算 2025 年 CPI 各中类的权重；我们预计 2026 年 CPI 同比增速整体呈现"M" 型走势，全年波动幅度在 0.1%-0.8%之间。 相关研究报告 《中期视角下的美债与黄金》20260301 《中银量化大类资产跟踪》20260301 《策略周报》20260301 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：张晓娇 xiaojiao.zhang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300514010002 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 根据统计局相关信息，以 2025 年为基期的食品烟酒、衣着、居住、生活 用品及 ...

"有事时买入日元"已成为过去 "在霍尔木兹海峡被封锁导致油价上涨令人担忧的情况下，没有积极买入日元的氛围"，外汇经纪人这样 解释本周初以后外汇市场的气氛。日元此前一直被视为地缘政治风险等导致市场紧张加强之后容易被买 入的"安全货币"。但以2022年为转折点，情况发生变化…… 随着中东局势紧张，日元贬值正在加剧。由于担心原油价格走高导致日本贸易收支逆差扩大，曾经 的"有事时买入日元"的现象已不复存在。市场关注的是俄罗斯入侵乌克兰导致的"2022年型日元贬值"的 情形。越来越多观点认为，非常时期买入美元和能源价格的上涨将加速日元的抛售。 "在霍尔木兹海峡被封锁导致油价上涨令人担忧的情况下，没有积极买入日元的氛围"，日本国内银行的 外汇经纪人这样解释本周初以后外汇市场的气氛。 俄乌冲突爆发的2022年成为转折点。当时，地缘政治风险的加剧导致"有事时买入美元"，同时欧美对产 油国俄罗斯实施经济制裁，导致能源价格上涨。 作为国际原油价格指标的西德克萨斯中质油（WTI）的近期合约在2022年3月一度达到每桶130美元，比 上年底上涨70%，之后也徘徊在100美元附近的高位区间。出口减去进口的日本贸易收支在2022年度出 ...

For thousands of years, gold has carried a simple reputation. When the world feels unstable, gold feels safe. One of the strongest examples came in 1979–1980. The Iranian Revolution, the U.S. embassy hostage crisis in Tehran, and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan sent shockwaves across global markets. Investors rushed to protect their wealth, and gold delivered. Prices jumped from roughly $250 per ounce in early 1979 to nearly $850 by January 1980, a stunning 240% surge in about a year. That rally cem ...

crude oil, which of course is a big big story. We continue to track higher. We're at 76 a barrel right now on crude.Uh, of course, so that is a really really big story for us as we continue to track the volatility in these markets and of course what those higher prices are going to mean for potential inflation down the road. We have a number of Fed speakers as well today who could potentially be addressing that in some of their commentary. So, let's get out to Kevin Green who joins me now.Obviously, we are ...

AutoZone (NYSE:AZO) Q2 2026 Earnings call March 03, 2026 10:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsBret Jordan - Managing DirectorJamere Jackson - CFOPhilip Daniele - President and CEONone - Video NarratorConference Call ParticipantsChristopher Horvers - Senior AnalystMichael Lasser - Equity Research Analyst of Broadlines & Food RetailScot Ciccarelli - Managing Director and Senior Equity Research AnalystSimeon Gutman - Executive Director and Senior Equity AnalystSteven Forbes - Senior Managing Director and Equity Res ...

AutoZone (NYSE:AZO) Q2 2026 Earnings call March 03, 2026 10:00 AM ET Speaker4Welcome to AutoZone's 2nd quarter 2026 earnings release conference call. At this time, all participants are on a listen-only mode and a question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star 0 on your telephone keypad. Please note this conference is being recorded. At this time, we would like to play the company's Safe Harbor statement.S ...

Leading 指示器 knightfrank.com.au/research 订阅 关键经济和金融指标影响房地产市场 2月26日 持续的通货膨胀导致澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）利率上升 通货膨胀率仍高于目标 ABS的12月份月度CPI数据 超出预期，年度头衔通胀上升3.8%， tri mmed mean通胀上升3.3%。服务业通 胀依然坚挺，租金和新住宅购买加速， 这会增加RBA的担忧。公告还包含了第 四季度年度trimmed mean通胀数据，这 是RBA在向月度CPI过渡期间关注的。 这一数据为3.4%，高于RBA11月份的3. 2%预测。 澳大利亚储备银行上调利率 上升的第四季度通货膨胀率，加上一个 12月份劳动力市场紧缩导致澳大利亚储备银 行（RBA）在2月份将利率上调25个基点。 在他们的决策中，RBA指出，私人需求比预 期大幅增强，而供应能力仍然有限。债券收 益率也已上升至4.8%，预计全年剩余时间 将保持在这一水平。 澳元显著增强 The AUD appreciated substantially in F ebruary to above US$0.70 for the first 自2023 ...

U.S. stocks stumbled as oil prices jumped on the first trading day since the United States and Israel attacked Iran. On Feb. 28, the U.S. and Israel began striking Iran in a campaign that killed the nation's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and dozens of top officials and hit more than 1,000 targets inside the country, President Donald Trump said. Iran has retaliated with strikes against U.S. military bases, Israel and other nations in the Middle East. News of the strikes almost immediately pushe ...

Core Insights - Gold prices have experienced significant fluctuations over time, particularly influenced by economic policies, inflation, and global events [1][10] Historical Gold Prices - In 1900, the price of gold was $19 per ounce, allowing an investment of $1 million to purchase approximately 52,743 ounces, which would be worth about $273.4 million in 2026 [3][10] - By 1980, the price surged to $615 per ounce, drastically reducing the number of ounces purchasable with $1 million to 1,626, valued at $8.4 million today [3][17] - As of 2026, the projected price of gold is $5,185 per ounce, allowing for the purchase of 192.8 ounces with $1 million [3][16] Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Inflation is a primary driver for gold prices, with historical spikes occurring during periods of high inflation, such as the late 1970s when inflation rates were in double digits [5][6] - Concerns regarding federal debt and government financial stability lead investors to seek gold as a safe haven [7] - Consumer demand for gold, including jewelry and investment products, has increased, with retailers making gold more accessible to the public [8][9] Recent Trends and Market Context - From 2016 to 2026, gold prices are expected to rise from $1,250 to $5,185 per ounce, reflecting ongoing economic uncertainties [10][16] - The 2020s have seen significant market disruptions, further driving interest in gold as a stable investment [16] - Comparatively, investments in gold have underperformed against the stock market, with a $1 million investment in the S&P 500 in 1980 now worth $189 million, while the same amount in gold would be worth $8.4 million [17]

研究报告·宏观策略研究 海外宏观周报（2026 年第 9 期） 2026 年 3 月 2 日 民银国际研究团队 应习文 电 话：+852 3728 8180 Email：xiwenying@cmbcint.com 相关报告： 主要大类资产走势： | | 2026-02-27 | 周变动 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美国国债收益率10Y | 3.97 | -11.0 bp | | 美国国债收益率2Y | 3.38 | -10.0 bp | | 日本国债收益率10Y | 2.17 | 4.3 bp | | 日本国债收益率2Y | 1.25 | -1.4 bp | | 德国国债收益率10Y | 2.69 | -5.0 bp | | 德国国债收益率2Y | 2.03 | -2.0 bp | | 标普500指数 | 6878.88 | -0.44 % | | 纳斯达克指数 | 22668.21 | -0.95 % | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 48977.92 | -1.31 % | | 日经225指数 | 58850.27 | 3.56 % | | 伦敦富时100指数 | 10910.55 | 2. ...