数据来源：海关总署 海关总署在线查询数据显示，中国7月精炼铜出口量为118398吨，环比增近五成，且高于去年同期水 平。由于传言美国对铜关税政策会在8月1日落地，7月底之前美国对全球铜的虹吸效应仍然存在，国内 冶炼厂仍有较强的出口动力。不过在7月底，美国公布对进口铜的相关关税，征收范围远不及市场预 期，COMEX铜出现坠落一幕，全球铜向美国流入的底层逻辑崩塌。 ...

每经AI快讯，华龙证券8月4日发布研报称，给予海亮股份（002203.SZ，最新价：12.39元）买入评级。 评级理由主要包括：1）特朗普铜关税政策大幅变动，将铜原料及废料排除在外，美铜大跌；2）原料输 美不受影响，公司在美拥有铜加工产能，有望直接增厚利润、受益铜关税政策。风险提示：北美铜管业 务进展不及预期；原材料价格波动；主要经济体关税政策变化；地缘政治风险；铜箔盈利改善不及预 期；合作事项存不确定性；数据引用风险。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——理想i8和乘龙卡车对撞测试，由中国汽研"操刀"！权威机构如何确保权威， 测试要不要公证？业内人士解读 （记者 曾健辉） 免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风险自担。 每日经济新闻 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has announced a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and high-copper-content derivatives, effective August 1, which has led to a significant drop in copper prices on the COMEX, highlighting the unexpected nature of the policy and its impact on the market [3][9]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - The 50% tariff applies to copper semi-finished products such as copper pipes, wires, rods, and sheets, as well as high-copper-content derivatives like fittings and electrical components, while excluding copper ore, concentrates, and cathodes [9][10]. - Following the announcement, COMEX copper futures prices fell by over 18% in a single day, marking the largest single-day drop in history [3][5]. - The market had anticipated a broader application of tariffs, leading to a miscalculation by major investment banks like Goldman Sachs, which had advised clients to buy call options on copper futures prior to the announcement [3][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The COMEX-LME (London Metal Exchange) copper premium rose from a neutral position to approximately 30% before the tariff announcement, driven by speculation about the tariffs [5][10]. - After the tariff announcement, the COMEX copper premium returned to a neutral position, indicating a significant market correction [5][10]. - Investors who had taken long positions in copper futures prior to the announcement faced substantial losses due to the rapid price decline [6][7]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The U.S. has a significant annual copper consumption of approximately 1.7 million tons, with a production shortfall of about 770,000 tons, necessitating imports primarily from Chile, Canada, and Mexico [9][10]. - The U.S. copper import policy aims to protect domestic production capabilities, as the country has limited smelting capacity, producing only about 3.3% of global refined copper [10][11]. - Analysts suggest that the copper market will need to adjust to the new tariff environment, with potential long-term implications for supply and demand dynamics, particularly as the market digests the impact of the tariffs [13][14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the main factors influencing copper prices in the second half of the year will include copper concentrate shortages, rising raw material costs, and the potential for a U.S. interest rate cut [13][14]. - The copper market is expected to return to fundamental supply and demand considerations, with the recent tariff policy's negative impact largely absorbed by the market [14]. - There is a recommendation for investors to consider trading in less policy-affected markets like LME and SHFE (Shanghai Futures Exchange) copper futures, as the long-term upward trend in copper prices remains intact despite short-term volatility [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is under pressure with a weak fundamental outlook and is expected to be volatile. After the implementation of copper tariffs, the market has returned to fundamentals. With prices continuously falling, downstream buyers are purchasing at lower prices, leading to improved trading sentiment. The short - term market trend is bearish, and the price is expected to find support around 78,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to whether tonight's non - farm payroll data affects the interest rate cut expectation [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Strategy Analysis - On August 1, the US imposed a 50% import tariff on semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive manufactured goods, with the scope far lower than market expectations, causing a sharp decline in New York copper prices. The US dollar has been rising, putting pressure on the market. In China, in July, the SMM electrolytic copper production increased by 3.94 million tons month - on - month and 14.21% year - on - year. Although TC/RC fees are still negative, they have stopped falling. Smelters can currently rely on by - products to make up for losses and have raw material reserves, so production enthusiasm is okay. The concentrated maintenance season is expected to be in the third quarter or after a significant reduction in raw material inventory. The future tariff on copper semi - finished products may affect export demand [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The Shanghai copper futures market opened low, rose in the afternoon, and closed lower at 78,400 yuan/ton. The number of long orders from the top twenty decreased by 5,658 to 110,615 hands, and the number of short orders decreased by 3,371 to 110,750 hands [4]. - **Spot**: The spot premium in East China was 165 yuan/ton, and in South China it was - 15 yuan/ton. On July 31, 2025, the LME official price was 9,650 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 44 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of July 25, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 42.73 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.26 US cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - **Inventory**: SHFE copper inventory was 20,300 tons, an increase of 727 tons from the previous period. As of July 31, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 75,100 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 141,800 tons, a slight increase of 3,550 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 257,900 short tons, an increase of 1,967 short tons from the previous period [8].

洛阳钼业7月31日股价报8.94元，较前一交易日下跌0.40元，跌幅4.28%。当日成交额达22.25亿元，换手 率为1.41%。 7月31日洛阳钼业主力资金净流出3.54亿元，占流通市值0.23%。 洛阳钼业主要从事钼、钨、铜、金等金属的采选、冶炼、深加工业务，产品广泛应用于钢铁、电子、化 工等行业。公司业务涵盖矿山开采、冶炼加工、贸易物流等完整产业链。 风险提示：以上内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 消息面上，美国总统特朗普宣布将对进口半成品铜产品加征50%关税，但精炼铜被排除在外。这一政策 导致铜矿股普遍下跌，市场担忧全球铜产品贸易格局可能发生变化。数据显示，2024年美国铜材进口 中，中国仅占5.2%份额，对中国铜下游产业影响相对有限。 本文源自：金融界 作者：A股君 ...

【导读】纽约 COMEX 铜暴跌超20%，创下有记录以来最大单日跌幅 中国基金报记者 安曼 特朗普的关税 " 回旋镖 "重创纽约铜价 。 7 月 31 日晚间，纽约 COMEX 铜开盘直线下 挫，暴跌超 20% 。截至发稿，下跌近 22% ，创下有记录以来最大单日跌幅。 | < W | COMEX铜 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | HG.CMX | | | 4.3780 | 昨结 开盘 4.6400 | | | -1.2090 | 7.74万 现手 3 -21.63% | | | 最高价 | 4.6520 持 仓 9.6972万 外 盘 3.7636万 | | | 最低价 | 4.3330 增 仓 -4638 内 盘 3.9776万 | | | 分时 | 五日 日K 周K 月K 更多 ◎ | | | 叠加 | 盘口 | | | 6.8390 | 22.43% 卖1 4.3790 | 1 | | | 买1 4.3780 | 2 | | | 09:44 4.3795 09:44 4.3800 | 7 2 | | 5.5860 | 09:44 4.3800 0.00% | 2 | | | 0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has announced a 50% tariff on various imported copper products, which has surprised the market and led to a significant drop in COMEX copper prices [2][4]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement - The U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives starting August 1 [2]. - Copper input materials and scrap copper are exempt from these tariffs, indicating that the cost of copper imports may not increase [4]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the tariff announcement, COMEX copper prices plummeted over 18% on July 30, with the price difference between COMEX and LME copper narrowing sharply [2][5]. - The abnormal premium structure for U.S. copper has collapsed, reducing the incentive for traders to import copper from other regions [5]. Group 3: Future Implications - The U.S. copper import volume has nearly reached last year's total, and without price incentives, imports may be limited, potentially leading to re-exports [5]. - Trump has not ruled out the possibility of imposing tariffs on refined copper in the future, with a phased approach suggested for 2027 and 2028 [6]. - The U.S. administration is also taking measures to support the domestic copper industry, including requirements for domestic sales of high-quality scrap copper [6].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has announced a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and high-copper-content derivatives starting August 1, excluding refined copper and major products from this tax, which contradicts market expectations [1][3][6]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement - President Trump signed an announcement on July 30, imposing a 50% tariff on imports of copper semi-finished products such as copper pipes, wires, rods, and sheets, as well as high-copper-content derivatives like fittings, cables, connectors, and electrical components [1][3]. - Refined copper and major products are excluded from the tariff, which was unexpected by the market, as there were anticipations that all imported refined metals would be taxed [1][3][6]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, copper futures on the New York Commodity Exchange experienced a significant drop, with prices falling over 18% at one point, ultimately closing at $4.63 per pound, down approximately 17% [3][5]. - The announcement has been described as unexpectedly disruptive to international markets, indicating a volatile response from traders [3][5]. Group 3: Historical Context - Earlier in the year, Trump hinted at potential copper tariffs, which led to a notable increase in U.S. copper prices compared to global markets, resulting in a surge of copper products entering the U.S. [5][6]. - On July 8, after announcing a 50% tariff on all imported copper, copper futures saw a record single-day increase of 17%, reaching $5.89 per pound, marking the largest single-day price increase since 1989 [5][6]. Group 4: Trade Flow Implications - The exclusion of refined copper from the tariff is expected to further disrupt global copper trade flows, with significant quantities of copper products already shipped to the U.S. potentially being re-exported [6].

7月31日（周四），投行高盛（Goldman Sachs）维持铜价预估不变，尽管特朗普政府公布精炼铜将豁免进口关税的意外决定。 据央视新闻客户端报道，当地时间7月30日，美国白宫表示，美国总统特朗普宣布对进口半成品铜产品和铜密集型衍生产品征收50%的普遍关税，自8月1日 起生效。 美国总统特朗普7月9日宣布，将从8月1日起对所有进口到美国的铜征收50%的关税。美国媒体警告，此举恐将导致美国制造商投入成本飙升，给美国制造业 带来沉重打击。 但白宫表示，铜输入材料（例如铜矿石、精矿、锍铜、阴极铜和阳极铜）和铜废料不受"232条款"或对等关税约束。 分析师们写道："尽管美国铜关税政策令我们感到意外，但我们认为这表明了特朗普政府仍关注铜供应安全。" 他们补充说："美国现在可以将注意力转向在海外达成矿产交易，并逐步实施关税措施。" （文华综合） 高盛分析师在近期报告中称，预计伦敦金属交易所(LME)期铜将在8月下滑至每吨9,550美元的低位，之后将在12月份反弹至每吨9,700美元。 在白宫声明发布之后，高盛分析师预测，由于美国阴极铜库存高企，阴极铜料将流入美国的LME仓库，但美国阴极铜的大规模再出口则不太可能出现。 ...

Core Points - Chile has announced that its cathode copper products will be exempt from tariffs, emphasizing its role in supporting U.S. industrial development [1][2] - The U.S. government, under President Trump, has imposed a 50% tariff on imported copper products starting August 1, which may significantly increase costs for U.S. manufacturers [1] - Chile is the largest copper producer globally, exporting over $5.6 billion worth of copper to the U.S. in 2024, accounting for 70% of U.S. copper imports [1] Group 1 - Chile's Finance Minister stated that the exemption from tariffs is beneficial for both Chile and U.S. industries, highlighting the importance of Chilean copper for U.S. industrial growth [1] - The U.S. administration views high copper import levels and global overcapacity as a threat to national security, but Chile argues that it enhances U.S. security as a reliable supplier [2] - Chile's exports primarily consist of cathode and refined copper products, with the remaining 30% of U.S. copper imports sourced from Mexico, Canada, and Peru [1]