华夏时报记者叶青北京报道 7月30日，特朗普签署行政令，宣布自8月1日起对进口的铜半成品及铜含量高的衍生品统一征收50%的关税，而铜矿石、精矿及废料仍保持开放。这一政 策细节与市场预期的对所有进口铜征收50%关税大相径庭。纽约商品交易所(COMEX)铜期货价格在政策公布后，当日收盘暴跌逾18%，创下史上最大单日 跌幅。 值得关注的是，在纽约铜价暴跌的前一天，华尔街投行高盛的销售人员还在与客户的电话会议中表示，特朗普极有可能实施50%的铜关税，建议客户买入 纽铜的短期看涨期权。此后，高盛向客户发送一封题为"未收铜关税，我们错了"的邮件认错。全球顶级投行在铜价预测上的失误，凸显了特朗普的关税政 策几乎让整个铜市措手不及。 纽约铜溢价回归平水 特朗普曾于2025年2月25日下令对美国铜进口展开调查，以重建国内铜生产。这一消息也直接导致COMEX—LME(伦敦商品交易所)铜溢价开始走高，从平 水结构上涨至15%左右的溢价。 "7月8日特朗普在白宫召开内阁会议时接受媒体采访，提到将对进口铜产品征收50%的关税，消息一经发布，COMEX—LME溢价再度上扬，从15%涨至 30%左右的溢价。从实物精铜国际贸易套利的角度，赶 ...

【冠通研究】 基本面偏弱，铜震荡承压 今日盘面低开高走，午后拉涨尾盘收跌，8 月 1 日起美国全面对进口的半成品铜产 品及铜材料密集型制成品征收 50%的进口关税。征收范围远低于市场预期，纽约铜大幅 下挫。美元今日连续上涨，盘面上方承压。国内基本面来看，7 月 SMM 中国电解铜产量 环比大增 3.94 万吨，同比上升 14.21%。TC/RC 费用依然处于负值，但已经止跌回稳，冶 炼厂暂时没有大幅检修，目前冶炼厂仍能依靠硫酸等副产品弥补亏损，且冶炼厂大多有 原料端储备，故目前生产积极性尚可，集中检修季预计在三季度或原料库存大幅去化之 后。铜半成品后续被征收关税，可能将影响出口需求。综合来看，铜关税落地后，市场 回归基本面，价格连续下挫之下，下游逢低采买，交投情绪转好。情绪交易关税收窄征 收范围的逻辑，短期行情偏空，在 78000 元/吨附近获得支撑，关注今晚非农数据是否影 响降息预期。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 资料来源：同花顺期货通（日线图表） 1 【期现行情】 期货方面：沪铜盘面低开高走，午后拉涨尾盘收跌。报收于 78400 元/吨，前二 十 ...

【导读】纽约 COMEX 铜暴跌超20%，创下有记录以来最大单日跌幅 中国基金报记者 安曼 特朗普的关税 " 回旋镖 "重创纽约铜价 。 7 月 31 日晚间，纽约 COMEX 铜开盘直线下 挫，暴跌超 20% 。截至发稿，下跌近 22% ，创下有记录以来最大单日跌幅。 | < W | COMEX铜 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | HG.CMX | | | 4.3780 | 昨结 开盘 4.6400 | | | -1.2090 | 7.74万 现手 3 -21.63% | | | 最高价 | 4.6520 持 仓 9.6972万 外 盘 3.7636万 | | | 最低价 | 4.3330 增 仓 -4638 内 盘 3.9776万 | | | 分时 | 五日 日K 周K 月K 更多 ◎ | | | 叠加 | 盘口 | | | 6.8390 | 22.43% 卖1 4.3790 | 1 | | | 买1 4.3780 | 2 | | | 09:44 4.3795 09:44 4.3800 | 7 2 | | 5.5860 | 09:44 4.3800 0.00% | 2 | | | 0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has announced a 50% tariff on various imported copper products, which has surprised the market and led to a significant drop in COMEX copper prices [2][4]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement - The U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives starting August 1 [2]. - Copper input materials and scrap copper are exempt from these tariffs, indicating that the cost of copper imports may not increase [4]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the tariff announcement, COMEX copper prices plummeted over 18% on July 30, with the price difference between COMEX and LME copper narrowing sharply [2][5]. - The abnormal premium structure for U.S. copper has collapsed, reducing the incentive for traders to import copper from other regions [5]. Group 3: Future Implications - The U.S. copper import volume has nearly reached last year's total, and without price incentives, imports may be limited, potentially leading to re-exports [5]. - Trump has not ruled out the possibility of imposing tariffs on refined copper in the future, with a phased approach suggested for 2027 and 2028 [6]. - The U.S. administration is also taking measures to support the domestic copper industry, including requirements for domestic sales of high-quality scrap copper [6].

【冠通研究】 铜关税征收范围缩窄 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 31 日 【策略分析】 今日盘面低开低走震荡下行，特朗普政府于 7 月 31 日宣布，自 8 月 1 日起全面对进 口的半成品铜产品及铜材料密集型制成品征收 50%的进口关税。该关税政策明确排除了 铜产业链上游的原材料，包括铜矿石、精矿、锍铜、阴极铜、阳极铜以及铜废料。征收 范围远低于市场预期，纽约铜大幅下挫。国内基本面来看，TC/RC 费用依然处于负值， 但已经止跌回稳，冶炼厂暂时没有大幅检修，目前冶炼厂仍能依靠硫酸等副产品弥补亏 损，且冶炼厂大多有原料端储备，故目前生产积极性尚可，集中检修季预计在三季度或 原料库存大幅去化之后。铜半成品后续被征收关税，可能将影响出口需求。综合来看， 铜关税征收范围超预期，盘面回吐前期的涨幅，后续铜或回归基本面交易逻辑，行情偏 空，短期关注 78000 元/吨附近支撑位置，目前中美关税会谈乐观，但后续依然有不确定 预期，制约上行空间。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 资料来源：同花顺期货通（日线图表） 1 【期现行情】 2 数据来源：Wind、冠通研究咨 ...

随着美国宣布将对进口铜产品征收50%关税，近几个月推动纽约伦敦两地铜溢价持续飙升的关税预期落 地，由此引发纽约铜价周三（7月30日）盘中重挫超20%，终盘收跌近18%。 美国"铜关税"落地美铜回吐溢价 根据美国白宫网站30日发布的事实清单，美国总统特朗普当日签署公告，从8月1日起将对进口的铜半成 品和铜含量高的衍生品统一征收50%的关税。 不过，从30日的市场表现来看，一方面，此前推动美铜升水飙升的美国进口铜关税政策的预期落地。另 一方面，从公告内容看，这一公告也与特朗普7月9日宣布的将从8月1日起对"所有进口到美国的铜征收 50%的关税"存在差异。在部分海外分析师看来，新宣布的铜关税与市场担心的普遍关税相去甚远。这 也引发了COMEX期铜大幅回吐溢价。 正因为如此，尽管美铜30日重挫，但伦敦3个月期铜则仅小幅收跌不足1%，31日亚洲电子盘交易时段， 伦铜更是一度冲高涨近1%。 随着美国铜关税预期落地，分析人士预计，铜市场价格将回归"理性"。法国兴业银行商品研究主管就表 示，如果电解铜被排除在外，"那么套利空间就没了，（铜）市场价格应会趋于一致"。 五矿期货也在早盘观点中提到，美国铜关税不及预期使得沪铜、伦铜 ...

特朗普宣布对铜产品征收50%的关税，但不包括最主要的原材料精炼铜等。周三，美国Comex铜期货价格暴跌，创下历史最大单日跌幅。在美东时 间周三下午之前，美国铜价一直比伦敦金属交易所（LME）的基准铜期货高出约28%，市场原本预期所有精炼金属进口都将被征税。 根据美国《1962年贸易扩展法》第232条款，美国总统有权出于"国家安全"考虑，采取对进口产品征收关税或设定配额等措施。 特朗普政府表示，这些新关税是继此前已对钢铁和铝征收关税之后的又一举措，旨在提振美国本国产业，并解决"贸易不平衡"问题。 当地时间周三，美国总统特朗普宣布对铜产品征收50%的关税，但不包括原材料精炼铜，纽约铜价在数分钟内暴跌约20%。 美国Comex铜期货价格暴跌，创下历史最大单日跌幅。在周三下午之前，美国铜价一直比伦敦金属交易所（LME）的基准铜期货高出约28%，市 场原本预期所有精炼金属进口都将被征税。 此外，美国铜生产商自由港迈克墨伦公司（Freeport-McMoRan Inc.）股价下跌约10%，Southern Copper公司股价跌超6%。最新公告削弱了美 国铜价的溢价。 而对主要向美国出口精炼铜的公司——如智利国有铜业公司 ...

值得注意的是。今年初，特朗普首次暗示将可能征收铜关税，导致美国铜价相对全球市场大涨，引发铜 大量涌入美国的抢运潮，使全球一些最大金属贸易商获得可观利润。7月9日特朗普进一步宣布将征收高 达50%的铜进口关税，是多数市场参与者原先预期的两倍，使美国铜价创下历史新高。此次关税政策 后，最近几个月运往美国的大量铜可能被再出口。 消息面上，美国总统特朗普宣布，将自8月1日起对进口半成品铜产品及铜密集型衍生产品普遍征收50% 的关税；铜输入材料和铜废料不受"232条款"或对等关税约束。在白宫宣布这一关税后，纽约铜价在数 分钟内暴跌约20%，创下历史最大单日跌幅。 智通财经APP获悉，铜业股全线走低，截至发稿，紫金矿业(02899)跌4.48%，报21.3港元；江西铜业股 份(00358)跌4.09%，报15.94港元；洛阳钼业(03993)跌3.48%，报9.15港元；五矿资源(01208)跌2.75%， 报3.89港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper industry stocks have experienced a significant decline following the announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper products by U.S. President Trump, leading to a historic drop in copper prices [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Zijin Mining (601899) saw a drop of 4.48%, trading at 21.3 HKD [1] - Jiangxi Copper (600362) decreased by 4.09%, with a price of 15.94 HKD [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) fell by 3.48%, priced at 9.15 HKD [1] - Minmetals Resources (01208) declined by 2.75%, trading at 3.89 HKD [1] Group 2: Tariff Announcement Impact - President Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives starting August 1 [1] - Following the tariff announcement, New York copper prices plummeted approximately 20% within minutes, marking the largest single-day drop in history [1] - The tariff is expected to affect the recent influx of copper into the U.S., which may lead to a re-export of large quantities of copper [1] Group 3: Historical Context - Earlier in the year, Trump's initial hints at potential copper tariffs caused U.S. copper prices to rise significantly compared to global markets, resulting in a surge of copper shipments to the U.S. [1] - On July 9, Trump announced the 50% tariff, which was double the expectations of most market participants, leading to a record high in U.S. copper prices [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - **Demand**: As of May 2025, the apparent consumption of electrolytic copper was 1.3635 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 80,800 tons or 6.30%. The downstream is in a relative off - season. Although the premium strengthened after the price decline, the trading sentiment remained weak. The output of terminal industrial products such as air conditioners decreased month - on - month. Downstream buyers followed the market on a need - to - basis, and market sentiment was cautious [7]. - **Macro**: US CPI and PPI data slightly exceeded expectations, and inflation data was mild. The decision of the Fed to cut interest rates is highly uncertain. The probability of a rate cut in July remains unclear, but the market generally believes it is low. The US dollar strengthened this week, suppressing the prices in the non - ferrous market. Copper tariffs may be officially implemented on August 1st. In addition to refined copper, copper products may also be subject to tariffs. On July 18th, the State Council Information Office announced a new round of plans to stabilize the growth of non - ferrous metals, focusing on both supply and demand [8]. - **Supply**: As of July 18, 2025, the spot rough smelting fee was - $43.16 per dry ton, and the spot refining fee was - 4.31 cents per pound. Both fees have stabilized and rebounded this week. One smelting enterprise has a maintenance plan in July, involving a refining capacity of 150,000 tons, which has a limited impact on refined copper production. SMM expects the domestic electrolytic copper output in July to increase by 15,500 tons month - on - month, an increase of 1.37%. In the international market, Peruvian protesters lifted the blockade, and the copper transportation and export channels that had been blocked for more than two weeks have resumed [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Situation - Macro Information - US CPI in June was 2.7% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2.6% and the previous value of 2.4%. Core CPI was 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 2.8%. CPI was 0.3% month - on - month, in line with expectations; core CPI was 0.2% month - on - month, lower than the expected 0.3%. PPI in June increased by 2.3% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.5% and the previous value of 2.6%. Core PPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.7% and the previous value of 3% [13]. 3.2 Shanghai Copper Price Trend - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly. The weekly high was 78,590 yuan/ton, the low was 77,700 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 1.13%, and the interval decline was - 0.03% [18]. 3.3 Fundamental Situation - Copper Industry Disturbances - Vedanta Resources' Zambian subsidiary Konkola Copper Mines announced on July 16th that it will shut down and transform its smelter to improve capacity efficiency, which is a key measure to fulfill its $1.2 billion five - year investment commitment. - The world's largest cable manufacturer, Prysmian SpA, supports the Trump administration's planned 50% copper import tariff, believing it will strengthen the US domestic supply chain, although costs will be passed on to end - users [21]. 3.4 Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of July 21st, the average spot premium in East China was 180 yuan/ton, and in South China it was 20 yuan/ton. The social inventory of copper was low. After the copper price declined, spot circulation was smooth, and the spot premium strengthened [27]. 3.5 LME Copper Spread Structure - As of July 18th, the weekly change of LME copper was 0.83%, closing at $9,720 per ton. After the copper tariff was implemented, the LME copper spot premium weakened significantly. Currently, LME copper is at a discount to futures, mainly due to the sufficient supply of market - available copper and the weakening of spot prices [32]. 3.6 Copper Concentrate Port Data - Inventory - As of July 18th, the copper concentrate inventory at 7 major domestic ports decreased by 32,000 tons to 457,000 tons this week. The copper concentrate inventory continued to decline and is currently at an absolute low level in the same period over the years. In May, China imported about 2.4 million tons of copper concentrate, a month - on - month decrease of 18.09% and a year - on - year increase of 5.8%, slightly lower than the average monthly import volume of 2.485 million tons from January to May 2025 [37]. 3.7 Smelter Processing Fees - TC/RC - As of July 18, 2025, the spot rough smelting fee was - $43.16 per dry ton, and the spot refining fee was - 4.31 cents per pound. Both fees have stabilized and rebounded this week. One smelting enterprise has a maintenance plan in July, involving a refining capacity of 150,000 tons, which has a limited impact on refined copper production [43]. 3.8 Scrap Copper - Refined - Scrap Spread - As of July 18, 2025, the refined - scrap spread in the mainstream areas was 827 yuan/ton. The weekly spread strengthened, while the monthly spread weakened. Currently, the refined - scrap spread is at a low level, the substitution advantage of scrap copper is poor, the scrap copper rod production start - up rate increased slightly, and the scrap copper procurement sentiment was low [50]. 3.9 Inventory Information - COMEX - As of July 18th, the COMEX copper inventory was 242,800 short tons, and it increased by 2,379 short tons in the past week, a change of 0.02%. As the copper tariff implementation on August 1st approaches, the rush - to - buy copper sentiment is fading, and the inventory accumulation speed in the US has slowed down. As of July 18th, the LME copper inventory was 122,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.02%. Since the copper tariff was implemented in early July, the LME copper inventory has rebounded from a low level, suppressing the LME copper price [56]. 3.10 Inventory Information - SHFE - As of July 18th, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 38,200 tons, a decrease of 3,900 tons from last week, a change of - 16.73%, and a decrease of 6,600 tons from last month, a change of - 15.00%. After the 50% copper tariff was implemented, the export channels tightened, and the domestic copper inventory increased significantly. In the past two days, it has decreased slightly due to new spot purchases after the price decline [60]. 3.11 Inventory Information - Bonded Area - As of July 17th, the cumulative copper spot inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 73,900 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons from the 10th and a decrease of 800 tons from the 14th. The inventory in the Shanghai bonded area was 69,200 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons from the 10th and unchanged from the 14th. The inventory in the Guangdong bonded area was 5,500 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from the 10th and the 14th. The bonded area inventory showed a downward trend. Although there were still smelter export goods entering the warehouse this week, some warehouses also had goods shipped out for export, resulting in a decrease in inventory [63]. 3.12 Refined Copper Monthly Imports and Exports - In June 2025, China exported 154,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a year - on - year decrease of 33.8%. From January to June, the cumulative export was 743,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. Imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 464,000 tons. From January to June, China imported 2.633 million tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. In June, China imported 337,000 tons of refined copper, a month - on - month increase of 44,300 tons and a year - on - year increase of 92,300 tons. Exports of refined copper were 79,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 78,700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 49.92% [68]. 3.13 Downstream Demand - **Copper Rod**: The output of copper rods continued to decline slightly. The market acceptance was low, especially due to insufficient domestic raw material supply and upstream suppliers hoarding goods. In July, the off - season demand affected copper rod production and sales. - **Copper Foil**: The price of copper foil fluctuated. The market supply and demand were weak this week, and the downstream market was not optimistic, with general support from the supply - demand side. - **Copper Tube**: The output of copper tubes decreased significantly due to the shrinking long - term orders from downstream. Large enterprises had a more prominent production cut due to their high previous - period base, while small and medium - sized enterprises had a relatively gentle decline due to capacity limitations [73]. 3.14 Downstream End - Users - As of the end of May, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.61 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. Among them, solar power installed capacity was 1.08 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 56.9%, and wind power installed capacity was 570 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 23.1%. - In June 2025, China's air - conditioner output was 28.383 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3%. From January to June, the cumulative output was 163.296 million units, a cumulative increase of 5.5% [78].