1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of domestic bauxite remains stable, while the mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore has increased by $3.4 per dry ton to $67 per dry ton due to rising shipping costs. The export restriction measures for Guinea's bauxite will be relatively mild, and the policy is expected to be officially introduced soon. The operating capacity of alumina has increased by 50,000 tons to 93.75 million tons, and the national alumina inventory has increased by 10,000 tons to 5.379 million tons. The current industry profit has been repaired, and enterprises have a strong willingness to maintain stable production. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased by 30,000 tons to 44.786 million tons. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is gradually affecting the production of electrolytic aluminum in the region, and the sharp rise in European natural gas prices has raised concerns about aluminum plant production cuts. Two major aluminum plants in the Middle East were attacked over the weekend, and the extent of capacity damage is currently unknown. On the demand side, the weekly average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased by 1.1% to 64%. Downstream operations are gradually picking up, entering the peak season rhythm, but demand is also suppressed by the sharp fluctuations in high aluminum prices. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of aluminum ingots is still waiting for a turning point. For recycled cast aluminum alloys, new orders for recycled aluminum plants are insufficient, and there is insufficient impetus for the operating rate to recover. Due to concerns about supply, aluminum prices are expected to be boosted, and attention should be paid to the development of the situation [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US Treasury yield curve, US dollar index, US Treasury yields, and RMB exchange rates, but no specific analysis or conclusions are provided [5]. 3.2 Bauxite - The price of domestic bauxite remains stable. Mines in Shanxi, Henan and other places are gradually resuming production, but fundamental issues such as mining rectification, mine reclamation requirements, and strengthened safety and environmental supervision are difficult to fundamentally resolve in the short term. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore has increased by $3.4 per dry ton to $67 per dry ton. Although some mining enterprises have signed long - term shipping agreements, some long - term agreement prices are linked to oil prices, and the sharp increase in shipping costs, combined with Guinea's plan to restrict bauxite exports, has pushed up the price of imported ore from Guinea. According to ALD, the export restriction measures for Guinea's bauxite will be relatively mild, and the Guinean Ministry of Mines has held talks with relevant mining enterprises, and the policy is expected to be officially introduced soon [8]. 3.3 Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity of alumina was 114.62 million tons, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the operating capacity was 93.75 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons week - on - week, with an operating rate of 89.7%. The weighted price of domestic spot alumina was 2,788 yuan per ton, an increase of 15.7 yuan per ton week - on - week. The national alumina inventory was 5.379 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week. National alumina enterprises are operating relatively stably. The current industry profit has been repaired, and enterprises have a strong willingness to maintain stable production. The second phase of a large alumina plant in Hebei is in a state of full shutdown at the roasting end due to policy influence. Currently, the group is accelerating the construction progress of the second and third phases of the roasting furnaces in Jiayuguan, with an expected construction period of 7 - 9 months. Guinean officials said they will restrict bauxite exports, but the measures are expected to be relatively mild, and alumina is expected to show a wide - range bottom - oscillating pattern in the short term [11]. 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.462 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons week - on - week; the operating capacity was 44.786 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons week - on - week. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will gradually affect the production of electrolytic aluminum in the region, and the sharp rise in European natural gas prices has raised concerns about production cuts at European aluminum plants. In terms of new production capacity, 350,000 tons of Zha Aluminum are under construction, and the second phase of 80,000 tons of Tianshan Aluminum is still under construction. In terms of resuming production, 300,000 tons of Liaoning Zhongwang have started to resume production, and Guangxi Longlin is accelerating the revitalization of 57,100 tons of idle production capacity. Overseas, the first - phase 120,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project of Huatong Angola is under construction and may reach full production in the second quarter; the first batch of 500,000 tons of the North Kalimantan electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia is under construction; the Slovak government will seek to restart the Slovalco aluminum plant with a capacity of about 200,000 tons that has been shut down; the about 200,000 - ton production capacity reduction of the Grundartangi electrolytic aluminum plant in Iceland will start to resume production at the end of April, six months earlier than originally planned; two major aluminum plants in Bahrain and the UAE were attacked over the weekend, and the extent of capacity damage is currently unknown; Qatar Aluminum has decided to stop further production cuts and will maintain an operating level of about 60%; the 580,000 - ton capacity of the Mozal aluminum plant in Mozambique has entered a maintenance and maintenance state [20]. 3.5 Inventory - The report presents data on the social inventory of aluminum rods, aluminum ingots, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures inventory, and LME aluminum inventory from 2022 to 2026, but no specific analysis or conclusions are provided [24][25][26][27]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum Alloy - The weekly average operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy leading enterprises remained stable at 59.5%. Some downstream enterprises still face profit pressure, and some die - casting enterprises exporting to the Middle East are facing transportation obstacles. They mainly purchase raw materials based on rigid demand and have a weak willingness to stock up. The recovery rhythm of the demand peak season is lower than expected, new orders for recycled aluminum plants are insufficient, production enthusiasm is not high, and there is insufficient impetus for the operating rate to recover [30]. 3.7 Downstream Operations - The weekly average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1.1% to 64%. - Aluminum profiles: The weekly average operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises increased by 4% to 59%. In the industrial profile sector, the demand in new energy fields such as automobiles and batteries has been good recently, driving up the operating rate of relevant enterprises; orders related to electricity such as power pipelines and transformers have performed well. In the construction profile sector, the decline in aluminum prices has provided some boost to the construction market demand, and downstream orders have increased month - on - month. - Aluminum strips: The weekly average operating rate of aluminum strip leading enterprises increased by 1% to 71%. The aluminum strip market has been stable, and leading enterprises have been producing steadily. In terms of terminal consumption, the downstream demand for energy storage has been continuously strong, and the capacity utilization rate of leading battery cell enterprises has been at a high level, providing support for aluminum strip materials such as battery casings and brazing materials related to energy storage. - Aluminum cables: The weekly average operating rate of domestic cable leading enterprises increased by 1% to 66%. Currently, it is a critical period for power grid construction material preparation. Coupled with the accelerated implementation of UHV and power transmission and transformation projects, the characteristics of the peak demand season in the industry are prominent. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm is high, the delivery rhythm is tight, and the supply - tight pattern continues. The promotion rhythm of major projects this year has accelerated, with the start of the ±800 kV UHV project from Inner Mongolia West to Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei and the resumption of the 1000 kV project from Datong to Huailai to Tianjin South, as well as the intensive promotion of 500 kV and 200 kV power transmission and transformation projects. - Primary aluminum alloy: The weekly average operating rate of primary aluminum alloy leading enterprises increased by 0.8% to 55%. Terminal consumption has maintained a moderate growth. After the previous inventory has been digested to a certain extent, production enterprises are gradually and steadily increasing their operating levels and increasing output to deliver long - term orders [38][43][46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The development of the Middle East situation is still bullish for aluminum. In the short term, the price may continue to decline. It is recommended to wait for the market sentiment to stabilize before entering the market to place long orders and pay attention to the development of the situation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly View - The price of domestic bauxite is temporarily stable, while the mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore increased by $0.6 per dry ton week - on - week to $63.6 per dry ton. The export restriction measures of Guinea's bauxite are expected to be mild and will be officially introduced from the end of March to early April. The operating capacity of alumina decreased by 200,000 tons week - on - week to 93.7 million tons, and the national alumina inventory increased by 24,000 tons week - on - week to 5.369 million tons. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 30,000 tons week - on - week to 44.756 million tons. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will gradually affect the electrolytic aluminum production in the region, and the sharp rise in European natural gas prices has raised concerns about aluminum plant production cuts. The domestic downstream processing leading enterprises' operating rate increased by 1% week - on - week to 62.9%. The aluminum ingot social inventory is still waiting for an inflection point. The operating rate of recycled cast aluminum alloy enterprises has increased seasonally. The Fed's hawkish signals have put pressure on non - ferrous metals [3]. 3.2. Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US Treasury yield curve, the US dollar index, the US Treasury 10 - year yield, the US Treasury real 10 - year yield, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar [5]. 3.3. Bauxite - The price of domestic bauxite is temporarily stable, but it is difficult to maintain in the long term due to the large difference in the real - time theoretical cost between domestic and imported ores used by alumina plants. Mines in Shanxi, Henan and other places are gradually resuming production, but fundamental problems such as mining rectification, mine reclamation requirements, and strengthened safety and environmental supervision are difficult to solve in the short term. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore increased by $0.6 per dry ton week - on - week to $63.6 per dry ton, driven by the sharp rise in freight and the expected export restrictions [8]. 3.4. Alumina - As of last Friday, the alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with no change week - on - week, the operating capacity was 93.9 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons week - on - week, and the operating rate was 81.9%. The domestic spot weighted price was 2,772.3 yuan/ton, an increase of 71.9 yuan/ton week - on - week. The national alumina inventory was 5.345 million tons, an increase of 36,000 tons week - on - week. The operation of alumina enterprises is relatively stable, and the industry profit has been repaired. An alumina plant in Hebei is affected by policies, and a new project in Guangxi is about to start production [11]. 3.5. Important High - Frequency Data of Alumina - The report presents data on the basis, alumina port inventory, north - south price difference, and transportation volume of alumina [13][14][15][16]. 3.6. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.442 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons week - on - week; the operating capacity was 44.756 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons week - on - week. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will affect the production of electrolytic aluminum in the region, and the sharp rise in European natural gas prices has raised concerns about production cuts. There are new investment and restart projects at home and abroad, and some overseas aluminum plants have production adjustment plans [20]. 3.7. Important High - Frequency Data of Electrolytic Aluminum - The report presents data on the processing fee of 6063 aluminum rods, the forward curve of Shanghai aluminum, the price of thermal coal, and the import profit of aluminum [22]. 3.8. Inventory - The report presents data on the social inventory of aluminum rods, the social inventory of aluminum ingots, the inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures, and the LME aluminum inventory [24][25][26][27]. 3.9. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy leading enterprises increased by 0.7% week - on - week to 59.5%. The operating rate of recycled aluminum enterprises has increased, but the increase is still mild. Downstream die - casting enterprises have low purchasing enthusiasm [30]. 3.10. Important High - Frequency Data of Cast Aluminum Alloy - The report presents data on the price of profile aluminum, the forward curve of aluminum alloy futures, the price difference between ADC12 and A00, and the import profit of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots [32][33][34][35]. 3.11. Downstream Operating Rate - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1% week - on - week to 62.9%. The operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises increased by 3.2% week - on - week to 55%, with different performances in industrial and construction profiles. The operating rate of aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises remained stable at 70% week - on - week, with different trends in different orders [38][42]. 3.12. Downstream Operating Rate - The operating rate of domestic cable leading enterprises remained stable at 65% week - on - week, with good order expectations in April but cautious purchasing due to high aluminum prices. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy leading enterprises increased by 1.2% week - on - week to 54.2%, with increased orders but some suppression of purchasing due to high aluminum prices [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The supply crisis of aluminum is still intensifying. It is recommended to allocate more positions while controlling the position size. Attention should still be paid to the development of the situation. The impact of the Middle East situation on aluminum prices is two - sided. Currently, the positive factors outweigh the negative ones, but it is not certain. The downstream start - up is gradually rising, entering the peak season rhythm, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots is still waiting for an inflection point [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly View - The price of domestic bauxite is temporarily stable, while the mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore increased by $2.2 per dry ton week - on - week to $63 per dry ton. The operating capacity of alumina increased by 200,000 tons week - on - week to 93.7 million tons, and the national alumina inventory increased by 25,000 tons week - on - week to 5.309 million tons. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 10,000 tons week - on - week to 44.726 million tons. The downstream start - up rate of domestic aluminum processing leading enterprises increased by 2.4% week - on - week to 61.9% [3]. 3.2. Macroeconomic Indicators - The document presents data on the US Treasury yield curve (10 - year and 2 - year), the US dollar index, the US 10 - year Treasury yield and real yield, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB [5]. 3.3. Bauxite - The price of domestic bauxite is temporarily stable, but it is difficult to maintain in the long term due to the large difference in the real - time theoretical cost between domestic and imported ores used by alumina plants. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore increased by $2.2 per dry ton week - on - week to $63 per dry ton. Although some mining enterprises have signed long - term shipping agreements, the increase in shipping costs and other factors have pushed up the price of imported ore from Guinea. The cost of bauxite has increased, but the supply of imported ore is increasing, and the ore price is still under pressure [8]. 3.4. Alumina - As of last Friday, the installed capacity of alumina was 114.62 million tons, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the operating capacity was 93.9 million tons, increasing by 200,000 tons week - on - week, with an operating rate of 81.9%. The weighted price of domestic spot alumina was 2,700.4 yuan per ton, increasing by 26.8 yuan per ton week - on - week. The national alumina inventory was 5.345 million tons, increasing by 36,000 tons week - on - week. The market rumor that Guinea may restrict bauxite exports has led to a stronger alumina price, which should be viewed with caution [11]. 3.5. Important High - Frequency Data of Alumina - The document presents data on the basis, port inventory, north - south price difference, and external transportation volume of alumina [13][14][15][16]. 3.6. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the installed capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.422 million tons, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the operating capacity was 44.726 million tons, increasing by 10,000 tons week - on - week. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will gradually affect the production of electrolytic aluminum in the region, and the sharp rise in European natural gas prices has raised concerns about aluminum plant production cuts in Europe. There are new investment and restart projects both at home and abroad [20]. 3.7. Important High - Frequency Data of Electrolytic Aluminum - The document presents data on the processing fee of 6063 aluminum rods, the forward curve of Shanghai aluminum, the pit - mouth price and car - board price of thermal coal, and the import profit of aluminum [22]. 3.8. Inventory - The document presents the social inventory data of aluminum rods and ingots, as well as the inventory data of Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures and LME aluminum [24][25][26][27]. 3.9. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The start - up rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 2.5% week - on - week to 58.8%. However, due to policy uncertainty and tight supply of compliant raw materials in some regions, the overall start - up level has not returned to the pre - holiday level. The traditional peak season in March has been weak, and downstream procurement is mainly for rigid demand [30]. 3.10. Important High - Frequency Data of Cast Aluminum Alloy - The document presents data on the average price of profile aluminum, the forward curve of aluminum alloy futures, the seasonal trend of the price difference between ADC12 and A00, and the import profit of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots [32][33][34][35]. 3.11. Downstream Start - up (First Part) - The start - up rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased by 2.4% week - on - week to 61.9%. The start - up rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises increased by 7.3% week - on - week to 51.8%, and the production of profile enterprises has fully returned to the pre - holiday normal rhythm. The start - up rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises increased by 1% week - on - week to 70%, but the order volume of automobile plates has decreased [38][42]. 3.12. Downstream Start - up (Second Part) - The start - up rate of leading domestic cable enterprises increased by 2% week - on - week to 65%, and the production rhythm has further accelerated. The start - up rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 1.8% week - on - week to 53%, but the spot trade is light due to the high aluminum price [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The impact of the Middle East situation on aluminum prices is two - sided. Currently, the positives outweigh the negatives, but it's not certain. It is recommended to have a long - biased allocation while controlling positions. Attention should also be paid to the development of the situation and the inflection point of the social inventory of aluminum ingots [3] Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Viewpoint - Domestic bauxite prices continue to fall, while the mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore increased by $0.3 per dry ton week - on - week to $60.8 per dry ton due to rising freight. Alumina operating capacity increased by 200,000 tons week - on - week to 93.7 million tons, and the national alumina inventory increased by 25,000 tons week - on - week to 5.309 million tons. The electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 16,000 tons week - on - week to 44.716 million tons. The unclear Middle East situation and the sharp rise in European natural gas prices may affect aluminum production. The domestic downstream processing enterprises' operating rate increased by 2.5% week - on - week to 59.5%, and the social inventory of aluminum rods shows signs of an inflection point [3] 02. Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US Treasury yield curve, the US dollar index, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar [5] 03. Bauxite - Domestic bauxite prices continue to decline. The theoretical cost difference between domestic and imported ores used by alumina plants is large, and domestic ores are difficult to maintain in the long - term. Mines in Shanxi and Henan are gradually resuming production, but fundamental problems are difficult to solve in the short - term. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore increased by $0.3 per dry ton week - on - week to $60.8 per dry ton. Although the shipping volume of Guinea bauxite is increasing, the ore price is still under pressure [8] 04. Alumina - As of last Friday, the alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with no week - on - week change. The operating capacity was 93.7 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons week - on - week, and the operating rate was 81.8%. The domestic spot weighted price was 2,673.6 yuan per ton, an increase of 13.7 yuan per ton week - on - week. The national alumina inventory was 5.309 million tons, an increase of 25,000 tons week - on - week. A large alumina plant in Hebei has its roasting end shut down, and it is accelerating the construction of roasting furnaces in Jiayuguan [11] 05. Alumina Important High - Frequency Data - The report presents data on the basis, port inventory, north - south price difference, and transportation volume of alumina [13][14][15][16] 06. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 45.422 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons week - on - week, and the operating capacity was 44.716 million tons, an increase of 16,000 tons week - on - week. The unclear Middle East situation and the sharp rise in European natural gas prices may affect electrolytic aluminum production. New production capacities are being put into operation at home and abroad, and some enterprises are restarting production or reducing production [20] 07. Electrolytic Aluminum Important High - Frequency Data - The report presents data on the processing fee of aluminum rods, the forward curve of Shanghai aluminum, the price of动力煤, and the import profit of aluminum [22] 08. Inventory - The report presents the historical data of the social inventory of aluminum rods and ingots, the inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures, and the LME aluminum inventory [25][26][27][28] 09. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy leading enterprises increased by 3.2% week - on - week to 56.3%. Some previously shut - down enterprises have gradually resumed production, but the terminal demand recovery is average, and downstream procurement is mainly for small orders to meet rigid needs [31] 10. Casting Aluminum Alloy Important High - Frequency Data - The report presents data on the price of profile aluminum, the forward curve of aluminum alloy futures, the price difference between ADC12 and A00, and the import profit of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots [33][34][35][36] 11. Downstream Operating Rate - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 2.5% week - on - week to 59.5%. The operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises increased by 7.5% week - on - week to 44.5%, and that of aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises increased by 2% week - on - week to 69% [39][43] 12. Downstream Operating Rate - The operating rate of domestic cable leading enterprises increased by 6% week - on - week to 63%, while the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy leading enterprises decreased by 4.6% week - on - week to 51.2% [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: For caustic soda, it is expected to be strongly volatile; for alumina, it is expected to be in low - level oscillation, and for electrolytic aluminum and cast aluminum alloy, they are expected to be strongly volatile [23][24][26] - Medium - to - long - term: For caustic soda, pay attention to the demand increase brought by the commissioning of new alumina production capacity and the recovery of downstream operation, and consider going long on dips if the operation is smooth; for electrolytic aluminum and cast aluminum alloy, they are expected to be strongly volatile under the quantitative easing environment, and alumina will be in wide - range low - level oscillation without large - scale production cuts [24][27] 2. Core View - The current strong performance of caustic soda futures is due to reduced exports from the Middle East, upcoming traditional demand season, new alumina production capacity, and approaching maintenance season. Alumina has an obvious supply surplus, and its price is under pressure. Electrolytic aluminum's supply is affected by the Middle East situation, and demand is picking up [23][26] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Aluminum Industry Chain Related Variety Price and Basis Trends - The report presents the trends of domestic alumina, cast aluminum alloy, caustic soda, and aluminum spot and futures prices and their basis [5][6] 3.2 Caustic Soda Supply - As of March 6, the weekly operating rate of caustic soda enterprises was 86.4%, a 1.5% increase from the previous week, and the weekly output was 855,000 tons, a 15,000 - ton increase. The weekly inventory was 55,000 tons, a 9,100 - ton increase [9] 3.3 Aluminum Raw Material Supply - As of February 27, the bauxite port inventory was 26.1449 million tons, 602,300 tons more than before the holiday. As of the end of January, the bauxite inventory of alumina plants was 24.54 million tons, a 120,000 - ton decrease from the previous month and a 2.54 - million - ton increase year - on - year [12] 3.4 Alumina Supply - As of March 6, the weekly operating rate of alumina enterprises was 82.62%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week, and the weekly output was 1.783 million tons, a 2,000 - ton decrease. The total inventory was 5.722 million tons, a 37,000 - ton increase from the previous week [15] 3.5 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - As of the end of January, China's primary aluminum production was 3.786 million metric tons. As of the end of February, the operating rate of the electrolytic aluminum industry was 98.94%. As of the end of December last year, the inventory was 644,000 tons [18] 3.6 Major Three - Exchange Aluminum Inventory Trends - As of March 5, the LME aluminum inventory was 459,100 tons, a decrease of 8,425 tons from last Friday; the SHFE aluminum inventory was 356,000 tons, an increase of 58,600 tons from last Friday; the COMEX aluminum inventory was 4,401 metric tons, a decrease of 1,043 metric tons from last week. Overall, the global major three - exchange electrolytic aluminum inventory continued to accumulate this week [21][22] 3.7 Strategy Recommendation - Caustic soda: In the short - term, it is expected to be strongly volatile. In the medium - to - long - term, pay attention to the demand increase brought by the commissioning of new alumina production capacity and the recovery of downstream operation, and consider going long on dips if the operation is smooth [23][24] - Alumina, SHFE aluminum, and cast aluminum alloy: In the short - term, alumina is in low - level oscillation, and SHFE aluminum and cast aluminum alloy are strongly volatile. In the medium - to - long - term, SHFE aluminum and cast aluminum alloy are expected to be strongly volatile under the quantitative easing environment, and alumina will be in wide - range low - level oscillation without large - scale production cuts [26][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises' operating rate increased by 4.2% to 57% compared with before the holiday. After the holiday, the downstream start - up will gradually rise and enter the peak season rhythm. Although the inventory pressure is large and the supply expectation has improved, the market trading logic has not changed. Coupled with the escalation of the Middle East situation, aluminum prices are still driven. However, as the Middle East situation is expected to cool down, the sustainability of the market is limited [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - economic Indicators - The content shows the trends of the US Treasury yield curve (10 - year and 2 - year), the US dollar index, the US 10 - year Treasury yield and real yield, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, but no specific analysis is given [5]. 3.2 Bauxite - The price of domestic bauxite is stable compared with before the holiday. After the Spring Festival, the domestic bauxite market has not started substantial transactions. Most mines in Shanxi, Henan and other places are still in a shutdown state. Some mines will resume production around the Lantern Festival, and some will postpone until after the Two Sessions. Issues such as mining rectification, mine reclamation requirements, and strengthened safety and environmental protection supervision are difficult to be fundamentally solved in the short term. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore remained stable at $60.5 per dry ton compared with before the holiday. The import ore price is stable in the short - term. After the Spring Festival, the procurement side is in a short - term wait - and - see period, and the miners' reluctance to sell is increasing. The shipping volume of Guinea bauxite continues to increase, and the spot supply of imported ore continues to increase, putting pressure on the ore price [8]. 3.3 Alumina - As of last Friday, the alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, unchanged from before the holiday, and the operating capacity was 93.5 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from before the holiday, with an operating rate of 82.3%. The weighted price of domestic alumina spot was 2,659.9 yuan per ton, a rise of 28 yuan per ton from before the holiday. The national alumina inventory was 5.284 million tons, an increase of 49,000 tons from before the holiday. The second - phase roasting end of a large alumina plant in Hebei was completely shut down due to policy influence, and the dissolution link continued to decline compared with before the Spring Festival. Two alumina enterprises in Shanxi are in the stage of maintenance. Supply - side disturbances support the alumina price [11]. 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 45.402 million tons, unchanged from before the holiday, and the operating capacity was 44.7 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from before the holiday. With the strengthening of aluminum prices, the future supply expectation of electrolytic aluminum has improved. New production capacity: Zha Aluminum's 350,000 - ton project has entered the trial - production stage, Tianshan Aluminum's second - phase 80,000 - ton project is still under construction and is expected to reach full production within the year. Guangxi Longlin is accelerating the revitalization of 57,100 tons of idle production capacity, and there are rumors that an electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Liaoning may resume production. Overseas, Huatong Angola Industrial Co., Ltd.'s first - phase 120,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project is in production and may reach full production in the second quarter; the first batch of 500,000 - ton of the North Kalimantan electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia is in production. The Slovak government will seek to restart the Slovalco aluminum plant with a capacity of about 200,000 tons, and production may resume as early as summer; the about 200,000 - ton production capacity reduction of Iceland's Grundartangi electrolytic aluminum plant will resume production half a year earlier than planned, starting at the end of April [20]. 3.5 Inventory - After the Spring Festival, the social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased significantly, and it will continue to increase in the short term. The report also shows the inventory trends of aluminum rods, aluminum ingots, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures, and LME aluminum from 2022 to 2026 [3][25][26][27][28]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 6.2% to 53.1% compared with before the holiday. The resumption of production in the first week after the holiday was slow. Most enterprises resumed work from the eighth to the fifteenth day of the first lunar month, initially focusing on furnace pre - heating. On the demand side, the terminal industries resumed work in an orderly manner, but the release of orders was not obvious. Downstream procurement was mainly for rigid - demand replenishment and inventory digestion [31]. 3.7 Downstream Start - up - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 4.2% to 57% compared with before the holiday. - Aluminum profiles: The operating rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises increased by 11.5% to 37% compared with before the holiday. After the Spring Festival, profile enterprises gradually entered the resumption of work and production stage, and the operating level increased significantly compared with before the holiday. In the industrial profile sector, photovoltaic profiles performed relatively well, while in the building profile sector, the performance was still weak. - Aluminum strips: The operating rate of leading aluminum strip enterprises increased by 4% to 67% compared with before the holiday. In the first week after the Spring Festival, the overall resumption of work in the industry was slow. Some enterprises completed equipment upgrading and maintenance during the Spring Festival and have gradually resumed work. The recovery rhythm of the downstream is different. There is no signal of warming in the building downstream, and there is a shortage of orders for curtain wall panels and aluminum veneers. Orders for high - value - added products such as automobile panels and aviation panels are relatively stable. - Aluminum cables: The operating rate of leading domestic cable enterprises increased by 4% to 57% compared with before the holiday. The power grid continued to place orders after the holiday, matching and revitalizing enterprise orders. The resumption of work of enterprises after the holiday slightly exceeded expectations. The downstream start - up and production will bottom out and rebound. - Primary aluminum alloy: The operating rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises decreased by 1.5% to 55.8% compared with before the holiday. The holiday factor led to a general decline in enterprise operations, and the downstream enterprises had concentrated holiday time. The resumption of production after the holiday was slower than in previous years, and the overall demand was poor [39][44][48].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Due to the escalation of the Middle East situation, the overseas supply of electrolytic aluminum may be affected, and the overseas aluminum ingot pricing is expected to rise. The internal and external price difference tends to be positive, and it is recommended to go long on the aluminum plant's profit, i.e., long AL and short AO [3]. - The short - term micro - demand for electrolytic aluminum is still weak, while the spot price of alumina has a small weekly increase and a small inventory accumulation [4]. - In terms of trading, the price difference, trading volume, and open interest of aluminum and alumina have changed. The open - interest - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai aluminum and alumina has declined [5][19]. - In terms of inventory, the inventories of bauxite, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and processed materials have different trends, such as the increase in bauxite port inventory and the significant increase in electrolytic aluminum inventory this week [24][55]. - In terms of production, the production capacity utilization rate of alumina remains stable, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high, and the production of downstream processed materials shows different trends [73][79][82]. - In terms of profit, the profit of alumina in January decreased slightly, the profit of electrolytic aluminum remains high, and the processing profit of downstream products is still at a low level [93][102][103]. - In terms of consumption, the import and export profits and losses of alumina and Shanghai aluminum have changed, the export of aluminum products has declined slightly, and the consumption absolute volume shows that the commercial housing transaction area is at a low level and the automobile sales volume is flat year - on - year [112][114][117]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Situation Impacted by the Middle East Situation - The escalation of the Middle East situation may lead to the opening of the window period for the supply interruption of overseas commodities. The total electrolytic aluminum production in the Middle East accounts for about 9.4% of the global total, and the total alumina production accounts for about 3.2%. It is estimated that the annual export volume affected is 4.6 million tons, and the monthly impact may be about 380,000 tons [3]. - The supply chain of bauxite and alumina, the raw materials of electrolytic aluminum, is fragile. If the transportation channel is restricted, it will affect the production and supply capacity of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East [3]. - If the war lasts for a long time, the overseas aluminum ingot pricing is expected to rise, and the internal and external price difference tends to be positive. It is recommended to go long on the aluminum plant's profit, i.e., long AL and short AO [3]. 2. Micro - demand and Spot Situation - The short - term micro - demand for electrolytic aluminum is still weak. As of February 26, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 261,000 tons to 1.175 million tons compared with before the Spring Festival. The downstream processing profit is at a low level [4]. - The spot price of alumina has a small weekly increase and a small inventory accumulation. The spot prices in different regions are different, and the inventory in different statistical calibers has increased [4]. 3. Trading - end Data - **Price Difference**: This week, the A00 spot premium and discount weakened, while the alumina spot premium and discount strengthened. The monthly spread of Shanghai aluminum is relatively stable [7][10]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai aluminum and alumina main contracts have increased significantly. The open - interest - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai aluminum and alumina has declined [5][13][19]. 4. Inventory Situation - **Bauxite**: The port inventory and inventory days of bauxite have increased. The inventory of bauxite in alumina enterprises decreased in January. The port shipment volume and sea - floating inventory of Guinea bauxite have increased, while those of Australia have decreased. The outbound and inbound volumes of bauxite have changed [24][29][30]. - **Alumina**: The total inventory of alumina continues to accumulate. The inventory in the alumina plant and the electrolytic aluminum plant has decreased, while the port inventory and the inventory in transit have increased [47]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: This week, the electrolytic aluminum inventory has increased significantly. According to the seasonal change rule, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory usually reaches the peak in the fifth or sixth week after the Spring Festival and then enters the de - stocking cycle [55]. - **Processed Materials**: The spot inventory and in - plant inventory of aluminum rods have increased. The raw material and finished product inventory ratios of aluminum profiles and aluminum sheets and foils have mostly increased slightly [59][61]. 5. Production Situation - **Bauxite**: The domestic bauxite supply remains stable. The production of domestic bauxite in February decreased slightly. The production of bauxite in different provinces has different trends [66][69]. - **Alumina**: The production capacity utilization rate of alumina remains stable. The weekly operating capacity decreased by 800,000 tons, and the production of metallurgical - grade alumina this week was 1.787 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons compared with last week [73]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high, but the production capacity utilization rate decreased slightly in January. The weekly production of electrolytic aluminum was 859,500 tons, a slight increase of 200 tons compared with last week. The proportion of molten aluminum has a seasonal decline [79]. - **Downstream Processing**: The production of recycled aluminum rods remained flat this week. The production of aluminum rods decreased by 1,900 tons, and the production of aluminum sheets and foils increased by 7,900 tons. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprises increased by 4.2% [82][83]. 6. Profit Situation - **Alumina**: The profit of alumina decreased slightly in January. The profits of alumina in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan decreased slightly, while the profit in Guangxi performed better [93]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit of electrolytic aluminum remains high, but the complex global macro - economic situation and overseas geopolitical conflicts have increased uncertainty and interfered with market expectations [102]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods remained flat this week, and the downstream processing profit is still at a low level [103]. 7. Consumption Situation - **Import and Export Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss of alumina and Shanghai aluminum have increased. The export of aluminum products decreased slightly in December 2025 [112][114]. - **Consumption Absolute Volume**: The commercial housing transaction area is at a low level, and the automobile sales volume is flat year - on - year [117].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Alumina - On February 26, the domestic bauxite price was 491 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day; the Guinea imported ore price was 61 US dollars/dry ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/dry ton compared to the previous day [41]. - On February 26, the spot price index was 2,654 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [41]. Electrolytic Aluminum - On February 26, the spot average price of electrolytic aluminum was 23,555 yuan/ton, an increase of 117 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the premium and discount was -175 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. - According to the Shanghai Futures Exchange, on February 26, the futures inventory was 288,287 tons, an increase of 3,112 tons compared to the previous day [3]. - According to Mysteel, on February 26, the aluminum rod processing fee was 106 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy - On February 26, the price of raw aluminum was 17,250 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day; the price of cooked aluminum was 17,650 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day [4]. - On February 26, the ADC12 price was 23,200 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day [4]. - According to the Shanghai Futures Exchange, on February 26, the futures inventory was 66,174 tons, a decrease of 907 tons compared to the previous day [4].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Nanshan Aluminum International with a "Buy" rating, assigning a target price of HKD 78.18 based on a PE of 13 times for 2026 [1]. Core Views - Nanshan Aluminum is a leading alumina producer in Southeast Asia with a stable cash flow and high growth potential, having established a production capacity of 4 million tons of alumina and plans for additional aluminum production [1][2]. - The company benefits from significant cost advantages in its alumina business due to Indonesia's rich bauxite resources and export bans, leading to higher profitability compared to domestic averages [2][14]. - A new 250,000-ton aluminum production capacity is expected to be operational by 2028, which could significantly boost future earnings [3][15]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Nanshan Aluminum International is primarily engaged in alumina production and sales, with a production base in Indonesia. The company successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in March 2025 [2][14]. - The company has a clear shareholding structure, with its major shareholder being Nanshan Aluminum, a listed company in A-shares, ensuring stability and resource support [18][20]. Production Capacity and Cost Advantages - The company has established a 4 million ton alumina production capacity in Indonesia, benefiting from low bauxite procurement costs, which are significantly lower than those in Guinea and Australia [2][14]. - The projected average price for bauxite in 2024 is estimated at USD 35.0 per ton, compared to USD 76.5 and USD 62.5 for Guinea and Australia, respectively [2][14]. Future Growth Potential - The company plans to start construction on a 250,000-ton aluminum project in 2026, with an estimated investment of USD 437 million and a construction period of about two years [3][15]. - The project is expected to have a production cost of approximately USD 1,980.8 per ton, with a potential net profit contribution of around USD 259 million once operational [3][15]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the global aluminum price will reach an average of USD 3,200 per ton in 2026, driven by limited supply growth and recovering demand [4][16]. - The global supply of aluminum is expected to grow at a rate of 1.7% in 2026, with demand growth projected at 2.4% [4][16]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company are USD 1.2 billion, USD 1.48 billion, and USD 1.6 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits expected to be USD 412 million, USD 475 million, and USD 568 million [5][11]. - The company is projected to maintain a high growth trajectory, with a CAGR of 80.8% in revenue and 141.7% in net profit from 2021 to 2024 [21].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Nanshan Aluminum International with a "Buy" rating, assigning a target price of HKD 78.18 based on a PE of 13 times for 2026 [1]. Core Views - Nanshan Aluminum is a leading alumina producer in Southeast Asia with a stable cash flow and high growth potential, having established a production capacity of 4 million tons of alumina and plans for additional aluminum production [1][2]. - The company benefits from significant cost advantages in its alumina business due to Indonesia's rich bauxite resources and export bans, leading to higher profitability compared to domestic averages [2][14]. - A new 250,000-ton aluminum production capacity is expected to be operational by 2028, which could significantly boost future earnings [3][15]. - The global aluminum price is projected to reach an average of USD 3,200 per ton in 2026, supported by limited supply growth and recovering demand [4][16]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Nanshan Aluminum International is primarily engaged in alumina production and sales, with a production base in Indonesia. The company has a total alumina capacity of 4 million tons, benefiting from low raw material costs [2][14]. - The company is controlled by Nanshan Aluminum, which holds a 56.97% stake, ensuring stable governance and resource support [18][20]. Financial Performance - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with projected revenues of USD 1.2 billion, USD 1.48 billion, and USD 1.6 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. Net profits are expected to reach USD 412.1 million, USD 475.3 million, and USD 568.3 million in the same years [5][11]. - The company has maintained a high gross margin, with a projected gross profit margin of 51% in the first half of 2025 [21][27]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the global supply of aluminum is expected to grow slowly, with a projected increase of only 1.7% in 2026. This is due to domestic production constraints and slow recovery in overseas capacities [4][34]. - Demand for aluminum is anticipated to grow by approximately 2.4% in 2026, driven by a recovery in the global manufacturing sector [4][16]. Future Growth Potential - The planned 250,000-ton aluminum project is expected to contribute approximately USD 259 million in net profit once operational, with further expansion plans for an additional 500,000 tons in the future [3][15]. - The company’s low-cost structure and stable cash flow from its alumina business are expected to support its growth trajectory and profitability in the coming years [2][14].