1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum is expected to experience a weekly - level consolidation, with the price center likely to move upward. The aluminum market has entered the "traditional consumption peak season", and downstream demand is a mixed bag. The overall aluminum price still needs to break through the convergent pattern, and both the unilateral direction and volatility tend to the long - side. [3] - For alumina, attention should be paid to the spot sales pressure, and there may still be room for the price to decline. The overall price center of alumina has moved down this week, and the spot sales pressure is increasing, which may still drag down the AO futures market. [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction End: Spreads, Volume, and Open Interest - **Term Spreads**: This week, the A00 spot premium weakened, while the alumina spot premium strengthened. The average SMM A00 aluminum premium changed from 30 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton, and the average SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) premium changed from - 30 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton. The Shandong alumina premium to the current month changed from 67 yuan/ton to 126 yuan/ton, and the Henan alumina premium to the current month changed from 87 yuan/ton to 166 yuan/ton. [9] - **Monthly Spreads**: The near - month spread of SHFE aluminum has widened. [10] - **Open Interest**: The open interest and trading volume of the SHFE aluminum main contract decreased slightly, while the open interest of the alumina main contract increased slightly and is at a historical high, and its trading volume decreased slightly. [12] - **Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - to - inventory ratio of the SHFE aluminum main contract declined, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio of alumina continued to fall and is at a historically low level. [17] 3.2 Inventory: Bauxite, Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Materials - **Bauxite**: As of August 29, the port inventory of imported bauxite increased by 90,000 tons compared with last week, and the port inventory days remained basically the same. As of August, the bauxite inventory of 43 sample enterprises across the country increased by 1.19 million tons month - on - month, and the bauxite inventory days in alumina plants remained stable. As of August 29, the weekly bauxite shipments from Guinea and Australia ports decreased, and the floating inventory also decreased. As of August 22, the bauxite out - port volume from Australia's Weipa + Gove ports increased slightly, while that from Guinea's Boffa + Kamsar ports decreased slightly, and the bauxite arrival volume decreased. [22][27][28] - **Alumina**: The national total alumina inventory continued to increase. As of Thursday (August 28), the national alumina inventory was 3.497 million tons, an increase of 74,000 tons compared with last week. The alumina inventory in plants, at electrolytic aluminum plants, and at ports increased, while the inventory in yards/platforms/in - transit decreased slightly. [36][48] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum inventory continued to increase. As of August 28, the weekly inventory of aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 31,000 tons to 610,000 tons. [49] - **Aluminum Rod**: This week, the downstream aluminum rod spot inventory and in - plant inventory showed a divergent trend, and the out - port volume decreased. [55] - **Aluminum Profiles & Plate - Foil**: As of July, the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles remained basically flat, while the raw - material inventory ratio decreased significantly. The finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum plate - foil decreased slightly, and the raw - material inventory ratio also decreased significantly. [57] 3.3 Production: Output, Capacity, and Capacity Utilization - **Bauxite**: In August, the domestic bauxite supply measured by the SMM caliber decreased slightly. Imported bauxite supply is still an important increment for the total domestic bauxite supply. In July, the bauxite output in Shanxi, Henan, and Guangxi measured by the Steel Union caliber increased slightly, while in August, the bauxite output in these three provinces measured by the SMM caliber decreased. [62][65] - **Alumina**: The alumina capacity utilization rate remained stable. As of August 29, the total operating capacity of alumina across the country was 94.6 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.7 million tons in the weekly operating capacity. This week, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina output was 1.847 million tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons compared with last week, and it is still at a high level in recent years. The short - term supply - loose pattern of alumina fundamentals has not been reversed. [69] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of July, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate remained high due to profit repair. As of August 21, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum measured by the Steel Union caliber was 848,300 tons, an increase of 400 tons compared with the previous week, and the output level remained at a six - year high. With the arrival of the consumption peak season, the aluminum - water ratio showed a seasonal increase, and the ingot - casting volume of aluminum ingots was expected to decrease month - on - month, reducing the supply pressure. [73] - **Downstream Processing**: This week, the output of aluminum plate - foil increased slightly by 3,800 tons compared with last week. The output of recycled aluminum rods decreased by 1,860 tons week - on - week, while the output of aluminum rods increased by 6,000 tons week - on - week. The operating rate of leading downstream processing enterprises increased slightly. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy, aluminum profiles, and aluminum cables increased slightly, while the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy remained flat. [75][77][82] 3.4 Profit: Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Materials - **Alumina**: This week, the alumina profit decreased slightly, and the profit of metallurgical - grade alumina measured by the Steel Union caliber was 390.1 yuan/ton, maintaining a good level of smelting profit. The alumina profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan remained stable, and the profit performance in Guangxi was better than that in other regions. [89] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum profit remained at a high level. However, the current complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies have increased uncertainty factors, interfering with market expectations. [99] - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods decreased slightly by 10 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the downstream processing profit remained at a low level. [100] 3.5 Consumption: Import Profit & Loss, Export Profit & Loss, and Apparent Demand - **Import Profit & Loss**: The import profit & loss of alumina and SHFE aluminum has widened. [108] - **Export**: In July 2025, the export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products increased slightly by 52,000 tons month - on - month. The export profit & loss of aluminum processed materials showed a divergent trend, and the export demand for aluminum products was hindered by trade policy adjustments. [110][112] - **Apparent Consumption Volume**: The transaction area of commercial housing decreased, and the monthly output of automobiles decreased month - on - month. [117]

Core Viewpoint - Innovation International Industrial Group Limited has submitted a prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for an IPO, marking its second attempt after a previous application lapsed in July 2025. The company is primarily owned by its chairman, with a significant portion of its revenue derived from related parties, and has shown notable growth in the past three years, although profitability has declined in the first five months of 2025 [1][6]. Company Overview - Innovation International was established in 2012 and focuses on the production and sale of electrolytic aluminum and alumina, with its chairman, Cui Lixin, holding 100% of the shares through Bloomsbury Holding, indicating a centralized decision-making structure [3]. - The company operates in the upstream aluminum production sector, specifically in alumina refining and electrolytic aluminum smelting, which are the highest value-added segments of the aluminum industry according to CRU [3]. Production Capacity - As of the reporting period, Innovation International has an annual design capacity of 788,100 tons for electrolytic aluminum and 1,200,000 tons for alumina. The company has also received approval for a hydroxide aluminum production capacity of 2,980,000 tons, with 1,480,000 tons already in operation and the remaining 1,500,000 tons in trial production [3]. - The electrolytic aluminum smelting plant located in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, is the third-largest in North China, and the company ranks as the twelfth-largest electrolytic aluminum producer in China [3]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the years 2022 to 2024 and the first five months of 2025 was reported as 13.49 billion, 13.815 billion, 15.163 billion, and 7.214 billion respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.0% over the three years [6]. - However, the gross margin has significantly decreased from 28.2% in 2024 to 19.9% in the first five months of 2025, a drop of 8.3 percentage points, while the net profit margin fell from 17.3% to 11.9%, a decline of 5.4 percentage points [6]. Revenue Sources - The primary source of revenue for Innovation International is electrolytic aluminum, contributing 95.5%, 90.5%, 85.0%, and 76.6% of total revenue in the respective years [6]. - A substantial portion of the company's revenue comes from related party Innovation New Materials, accounting for 78.8%, 76.6%, and 59.8% of total revenue in 2023, 2024, and the first five months of 2025, indicating a potential reliance on a single customer [6]. Future Plans - The funds raised from the IPO will be allocated to expanding overseas production capacity, including the construction of electrolytic aluminum smelting plants and the purchase of production equipment, as well as green energy projects and working capital [7].

Report Title - Aluminum Industry Chain Daily Review 20250826: The supply and demand of domestic bauxite in August are expected to be loose, and the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased month-on-month [1] Core Viewpoints - The price increase space of alumina is limited due to the rising production cost and the loose supply-demand expectation; it is recommended that investors wait and see, focusing on the support level around 3000 - 3100 and the pressure level around 3300 - 3600 [2] - The price of Shanghai aluminum may be cautiously bullish due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in August, the expectation of the domestic traditional off - season turning to the peak season, and the low domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum; it is recommended that investors go long on the main contract at low positions, focusing on the support level around 20200 - 20400 and the pressure level around 21000 - 21500, and for LME aluminum, the support level around 2300 - 2500 and the pressure level around 2700 - 2800 [2] - The price of aluminum alloy may be cautiously bullish due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in August and the tight supply of scrap aluminum; it is recommended that investors short the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy with a light position in the short - term, focusing on the support level around 19800 - 20000 and the pressure level around 20300 - 20500 [2] Data Summary Aluminum Futures - The closing price of the active contract of Shanghai aluminum futures on August 25, 2025, was 20770, up 140 from the previous day; the trading volume was 146160 lots, up 11586; the open interest was 248343 lots, up 11056; the inventory was 56670 tons, down 474 [2] - The SMM A00 electrolytic aluminum average price was 20780, up 70; the Shanghai aluminum basis was 10, down 70; the spread between the nearby and far - month contracts showed different changes [2] Alumina Futures - The closing price of alumina futures on August 25, 2025, was 3184, up 46; the trading volume was 455135 lots, up 182961; the open interest was 193845 lots, up 10870; the inventory was 83132 tons, up 5386 [2] - The basis was 57.72, down 49.15; the spreads between different contract months also had corresponding changes [2] London Aluminum - The closing price of the LME 3 - month aluminum futures (electronic trading) on August 22, 2025, was 9796.5, up 72; the LME aluminum futures 0 - 3 month contract spread was - 78.38, up 2.63; the 3 - 15 month contract spread was - 158.98, up 12.64; the Shanghai - London aluminum price ratio was 7.8680, down 0.07 [2] Industry News - Anhui Wufang Electromechanical Co., Ltd. is investing 2 billion yuan to build an 80,000 - ton aluminum casting new energy green casting project in Bengbu High - tech Zone, with a phased construction plan [2] - Huafeng Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary plans to jointly invest 210 million yuan with an affiliated company to establish Xinjiang Huafeng New Material Technology Co., Ltd., aiming to build a 4 - million - square - meter high - voltage formed foil production line in two phases [2] - India's National Aluminium Company (NALCO) plans to invest 171.63 billion Indian rupees to increase the smelter's annual capacity by 500,000 tons, 120 billion rupees to increase power generation capacity by 1080 MW, and other investment plans to expand alumina and bauxite production [2] - Dumining Group's Inner Mongolia Huodu New Material Co., Ltd. has put its first - phase 300,000 - ton new carbon anode project into production, with subsequent expansion plans [2] Supply and Demand Analysis Bauxite - Some mines in Shanxi and Henan have not resumed production; Guinea has revoked the licenses of 6 bauxite enterprises, and a new company has taken over a mining right; a bauxite project in China is under construction; the domestic bauxite price has changed, and the supply - demand expectation in August is loose [2] Alumina - The operating rate and production of Chinese alumina have decreased; some domestic alumina projects are under construction or planned to be put into production, which may increase the production in August; the import volume may decrease, and the port inventory has decreased [2] Electrolytic Aluminum - Some overseas electrolytic aluminum projects have production plans; the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is at a low level [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry were provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The supply - demand outlook for domestic bauxite in August is expected to be loose, and the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased month - on - month [1]. - The rising prices of domestic and imported bauxite push up production costs. The decline in domestic alumina operating capacity cannot change the loose supply - demand outlook, limiting the upside potential of alumina prices. It is recommended that investors wait and see, focusing on the support level around 3000 - 3100 and the resistance level around 3300 - 3600 [2]. - With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in August, the transition from the traditional off - season to the peak season in the domestic market, and the low social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum, the Shanghai aluminum price is expected to be cautiously bullish. Investors are advised to go long on the main contract at low prices with a light position, focusing on the support level around 20200 - 20400 and the resistance level around 21000 - 21500. For LME aluminum, focus on the support level around 2300 - 2500 and the resistance level around 2700 - 2800 [2]. - With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in August and the tight supply of scrap aluminum leading to near - loss in recycled aluminum alloy production, the aluminum alloy price is expected to be cautiously bullish. Investors are advised to short the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy with a light position in the short term, focusing on the support level around 19800 - 20000 and the resistance level around 20300 - 20500 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Aluminum Futures Active Contract**: On August 25, 2025, the closing price was 20770, up 140 from the previous day; the trading volume was 146160 lots, up 11586; the open interest was 248343 lots, up 11056; the inventory was 56670 tons, down 474 [2]. - **Shanghai Aluminum Basis**: The average price of SMM A00 electrolytic aluminum was 20780, up 70; the Shanghai aluminum basis was 10, down 70; the spread between the near - month and the continuous - first contract was 15, down 5 [2]. - **Alumina Spot Price**: The national average price of alumina was 3241.72 yuan/ton, down 3.15; the average price in Shanxi was 3215 yuan/ton, down 5; in Shandong, it was 3190 yuan/ton, down 15; in Henan, it was 3215 yuan/ton, down 10 [2]. - **Alumina Futures Price**: On August 25, 2025, the closing price was 3184 yuan/ton, up 46; the trading volume was 455135 lots, up 182961; the open interest was 193845 lots, up 10870; the inventory was 83132 tons, up 5386; the basis was 57.72, down 49.15 [2]. - **LME 3 - Month Aluminum Futures**: On August 22, 2025, the closing price (electronic trading) was 9796.5, up 72 from the previous day; the spread between the 0 - 3 - month contract was - 78.38, up 2.63; the spread between the 3 - 15 - month contract was - 158.98, up 12.64 [2]. Industry News - Anhui Wufang Electromechanical Co., Ltd. is investing 2 billion yuan in a project to produce 80,000 tons of aluminum castings per year in Bengbu High - tech Zone. The first - phase production capacity of 20,000 tons has been achieved, and the annual output value will reach 800 million yuan after full - scale production [2]. - Huafeng Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary plans to jointly invest 20 million yuan with an affiliated company to establish Xinjiang Huafeng New Materials Technology Co., Ltd., aiming to build a production line with an annual output of 4 million square meters of high - voltage formed foil [2]. - India's National Aluminium Company (NALCO) plans to invest 171.63 billion Indian rupees to increase the smelter's annual capacity by 500,000 tons, 120 billion Indian rupees to increase power generation capacity by 1080 MW, and 56.77 billion Indian rupees to build a 1 - million - ton - per - year alumina refinery [2]. - The first - phase project of Inner Mongolia Huodu New Materials Co., Ltd. with an annual output of 300,000 tons of new pre - baked anodes was put into production on August 19, 2025. The second - phase project of 300,000 tons is expected to be put into production on October 19, and the third - phase project of 800,000 tons has started design [2]. Industry Supply and Demand - The supply - demand outlook for domestic bauxite in August is expected to be loose, with the production (import) volume likely to increase month - on - month. The port departure (arrival/inventory) volume of global (Chinese) port bauxite has decreased (decreased/increased) compared with last week [2]. - China's alumina production rate (production volume) has decreased compared with last week, leading to a decrease in the alumina inventory of Chinese alumina and electrolytic aluminum plants (SHFE) [2]. - Some projects are expected to increase China's alumina production in August, and the excess of China's alumina operating capacity compared with electrolytic aluminum in July has widened [2]. - Overseas alumina production in August is expected to decrease month - on - month, and the import window is closed, resulting in a decrease in domestic alumina imports (exports) and a decrease in domestic port alumina inventory [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Alumina is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term, with a mid - term oversupply situation. It is advisable to go short at high prices in the mid - term, with a short - term operating range of 3000 - 3300 yuan/ton [2][7]. - Electrolytic aluminum prices are likely to oscillate in the short - term, with a reference range of 20000 - 21000 yuan/ton. There is a risk of the price rising and then falling if demand does not improve [7]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are predicted to maintain a narrow - range oscillation. The spot price is expected to remain firm, and the price difference with aluminum is likely to converge, with a reference operating range of 19600 - 20400 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review (8.18 - 8.22) - Alumina prices were weak this week due to inventory accumulation and rising warehouse receipts. With narrowing profits, cost support is strong, and the price is expected to oscillate narrowly next week [10]. - Electrolytic aluminum prices oscillated narrowly. Overseas interest - rate cut expectations cooled, while domestic policies provided support. Supply increased slowly, costs decreased slightly, and demand was the core issue. High prices restricted short - term purchases, but inventory accumulation slowed down [10]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices also oscillated narrowly. The market improved marginally, with social inventory decreasing for the first time since mid - April. Tight scrap aluminum supply supported costs, and some factories reduced production due to tax policy adjustments. Demand was structurally differentiated, and orders showed signs of improvement [10]. 2. Macroeconomic and Terminal Demand - US employment data in July was worse than expected, and previous data was revised down significantly. The labor market cooled significantly. The probability of a September interest - rate cut increased to 93.4% due to relatively mild inflation pressure [13][17][18]. - China's core CPI in July increased year - on - year to 0.8%, indicating continuous recovery of domestic demand. The PMI in July was 49.3%, a 0.4% decrease from the previous month, mainly affected by the traditional off - season and extreme weather [24][30]. - Real estate sales weakened on a weekly basis. From January to July, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises decreased by 9.2% year - on - year. New construction and investment are expected to continue to decline in 2025 [36][40]. - China's automobile production and sales data in July were strong. From January to July, production and sales increased by 12.7% and 12% respectively year - on - year. The inventory warning index improved, indicating better market sentiment [41][45]. 3. Industry Supply - Demand Fundamentals Aluminum Bauxite - In July, imports increased by 10.7% month - on - month. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea on imports will gradually emerge. Domestic production is relatively stable, with limited short - term supply increase [47][50]. - Domestic bauxite prices remained stable this week, while the import bulk market had few transactions. Port inventory continued to accumulate, and the pressure of barge transportation is expected to appear at the end of the month [51][61]. Alumina - In July, the profitability improved, and production increased by 5.4% month - on - month. The operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in August. The market is in a stock - piling trend, with inventory accumulating in factories and warehouse receipts increasing [62][66][68]. Electrolytic Aluminum - In July, production increased by 3.1% month - on - month, and the proportion of molten aluminum decreased significantly. The operating capacity in Yunnan increased due to capacity replacement. Net imports increased in July but are expected to decline slightly in August [72][76][84]. - This week, the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises showed signs of recovery, mainly due to new orders in the automotive and photovoltaic sectors. The short - term inventory still has the expectation of accumulation, and the weekly social inventory increased by 0.8 tons, with a slower rate of accumulation [85][91][94]. - From January to July, the cumulative export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 8.5% year - on - year [96]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - In July, scrap aluminum production increased by 3.4% month - on - month, and the prices of domestic and imported scrap aluminum were firm. The industry's operating rate was 53.0% this week, with increased differentiation. The import volume in July reached a four - year low and is expected to remain low in August [99][109][110]. - The weekly inventory accumulation of cast aluminum alloy slowed down. The price is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation, with cost support and marginal improvement in demand during the off - peak to peak season transition [117][121].

Report Summary - There is no specific investment rating provided for the industry in the report [2] - The core view of the report is that in the aluminum industry, the overall supply and demand situation is complex. The supply side shows different trends in various links such as bauxite, alumina, and electrolytic aluminum, while the demand side is affected by factors like consumption expectations and seasonal patterns. The market is also influenced by macro - economic factors such as the Fed's interest rate expectations and domestic economic data [8][36] Multi - Empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: The overall fluctuation of power information and the Fed's rate - cut expectation continue to rise, affecting market sentiment. The consumption expectation is not overly pessimistic [8] - **Bearish factors**: The water - discount range has expanded, and inventory has climbed. The US employment data has weakened, and the inventory has risen [8][9] Data Analysis Bauxite - In June 2025, domestic bauxite production was 5.1933 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 173,100 tons but a year - on - year increase of 203,600 tons. The daily output was 173,100 tons, remaining flat month - on - month. In July, the domestic bauxite market was stable, but rainfall in major producing areas restricted production. The procurement price in Shanxi remained stable [18] - In May, over 40 mining enterprises in Guinea had their mining licenses revoked. However, a mining enterprise resumed production, changing the supply from a tight - balance expectation to an oversupply expectation. In the first half of the year, China's bauxite imports increased by 26.086 million tons year - on - year to 103.403 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 33.74%. The port inventory also increased. Although the subsequent imports may decline due to the rainy season, the price is expected to have limited rebound [22] Alumina - As of late July, the national alumina production capacity was 113.02 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from late June. The operating capacity was 94.95 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons from late June, reaching a new high for the year. The operating rate was 84.01%, a 1.5 - percentage - point increase [25] - In June 2025, China exported 171,000 tons of alumina, a month - on - month decrease of 17.7% but a year - on - year increase of 8.8%. From January to June, the cumulative export was 1.343 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.7%. In June, the import was 101,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 50% and a year - on - year increase of 168.4%. From January to June, the cumulative import was 268,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 77.4%. The net export in June was 69,700 tons, and the cumulative net export from January to June was 1.075 million tons. The import volume may increase in the second half of the year [25] Electrolytic Aluminum - The growth space of domestic electrolytic aluminum production is limited. The capacity utilization rate has exceeded 95%. From January to June, the cumulative production was 21.6948 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.42%. In June, the production was 3.609 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.57% but a month - on - month decrease of 3.23% [29] - As of late July, the national electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 45.232 million tons, a monthly increase of 25,000 tons. The operating capacity was 44.214 million tons, a monthly increase of 55,000 tons, and the operating rate was 97.8% [29] - Electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a profit of over 3,000 yuan per ton in the second half of the year due to limited new capacity, high capacity utilization rate, rigid supply, and low inventory [32] Downstream - In the off - season, downstream demand returns to the rigid - demand rhythm. In July, the average operating rate of aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 58.7%, a 1.3% month - on - month decline [36] - In the first half of the year, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity exceeded 200GW, but the installation slowed down in June. The new installed capacity in June was 14.36GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38% [40] - From January to June, the national real estate development investment was 4.6658 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. Other real estate indicators such as construction area, new construction area, and completion area also showed declines [44] Inventory - Last week, LME aluminum inventory rebounded to 469,500 tons. As of the week of August 1, SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 1,737 tons to 117,500 tons [48] - As of August 7, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major Chinese markets was 549,000 tons, a 2,000 - ton increase from Monday. The inventory is still at a relatively low level, and the exchange warehouse receipt inventory has declined to around 43,000 tons, supporting the aluminum price [52] Price and Import - On August 7, the average price of Shanghai Wumaoh aluminum had a discount of - 60 yuan per ton, with the discount range expanding. The LME aluminum 0 - 3 discount was 0.65 dollars per ton, with the discount range narrowing [56] - China's scrap aluminum imports in August may decrease month - on - month due to intense overseas competition, geopolitical conflicts, and positive domestic refined - scrap aluminum price differences [60] Aluminum Alloys - The production capacity operating rate of China's primary aluminum alloy increased compared to last week, with a daily full - cost production cost of 20,400 yuan per ton [64] - The production capacity operating rate of China's recycled aluminum alloy remained the same as last week. The daily full - cost production cost of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 19,950 yuan per ton, and the profit was negative [68] - As of August 8, China's weekly social inventory of aluminum alloy was 48,400 tons, a 2,400 - ton increase from last week. The in - factory inventory was 60,700 tons, a 3,300 - ton decrease from last week [72] 后市研判 - Aluminum alloy futures prices will follow the upward trend of electrolytic aluminum futures [74] - For SHFE aluminum, the "Golden September and Silver October" demand peak season is approaching, and the consumption expectation is not overly pessimistic. The 60 - day moving average of 20,400 provides support [77]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Innovation International Holdings Group Limited has re-submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after the previous submission expired, indicating a renewed effort to go public [1] - The company primarily focuses on the production and sales of electrolytic aluminum and alumina, with a significant reliance on its affiliate, Innovation New Materials [1][2] - The sales revenue from electrolytic aluminum constitutes a high percentage of the company's total revenue, with figures of 95.5%, 90.5%, 85%, and 76.6% for the years 2022, 2023, 2024, and the first five months of 2025, respectively [2] Group 2 - The company aims to use the raised funds to expand overseas electrolytic aluminum smelting capacity, build green energy power stations, and optimize working capital to support its globalization strategy and sustainable development goals [2] - The company has achieved high self-sufficiency rates in alumina and electricity supply, with self-sufficiency rates of approximately 47%, 90%, 84%, and 70% for alumina, and 81%, 81%, 88%, and 87% for electricity from 2022 to the first five months of 2025 [3] - Revenue from the affiliate Innovation New Materials accounted for 78.8%, 76.6%, and 59.8% of the company's total revenue for the years 2023, 2024, and the first five months of 2025, respectively [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since July, the Shanghai Aluminum futures have fluctuated, rising first and then falling, driven by sector resonance and cost - side logic. Alumina has experienced significant fluctuations under the so - called "anti - involution" drive, but the impact on the alumina industry is limited. Cast aluminum alloy's trend is similar to that of Shanghai Aluminum, slightly stronger, with a slightly upward - shifted center of gravity after July's fluctuations. Overall, except for alumina, the aluminum industry chain has been relatively calm and deviated from the fundamentals [94]. - Fundamentally, the upstream of the industry chain remains relatively loose. Ore imports have increased, and domestic mine activities are relatively few. Alumina production capacity utilization is high, and new capacity is gradually being put into operation. Electrolytic aluminum plants have high operating capacity due to cost reduction and profit increase. The downstream processing industry shows a slack - season performance, but profiles, primary alloys, and cable sectors are relatively strong. In the terminal market, State Grid orders in the first half of the year boosted the demand for aluminum cables, but now it's the seasonal slack season with reduced demand. In the third quarter, new centralized tenders are expected to stabilize and improve the situation. The end of the photovoltaic rush - installation in the first half and the "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic field have cooled the related industries, and it's hard to see improvement in the next 1 - 2 months. Other traditional demand terminals are relatively stable, with the growth of the automotive industry, especially new - energy vehicles, expected to slow down. The real - estate sector is still at the bottom, and the home - appliance industry shows resilience due to policy support. In August, the downstream aluminum processing industry is still in the slack season, and it's difficult for the operating rate to increase significantly in the short term. Low ingot volume in the industry leads to a continuous decline in inventory, and low inventory levels make price fluctuations more likely [94]. - In August, after the "anti - involution" cools down, the commodity market will adjust, and the non - ferrous sector, which has limited previous gains, will also be affected. Alumina will be most affected, and aluminum and aluminum alloy prices are also difficult to maintain at high levels. Attention should be paid to the warehouse - receipt level near the delivery date to prevent short - term price fluctuations. Shanghai Aluminum is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 20,000 - 20,800; Alumina may return to around 3000, with a main operating range of 2900 - 3500; Cast aluminum alloy will also run weakly in the range of 19,500 - 20,200 [94]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Alumina**: The MA5 of the Alumina main - contract (SHFE 6273) is 3357.60, MA10 is 3326.40, MA20 is 3217.10, MA40 is 3067.30, and MA60 is 3041.18 [6]. - **Aluminum**: The MA5 of the Shanghai Aluminum main - contract (SHFE 2214) is 20672.00, MA10 is 20681.50, MA20 is 20614.75, MA40 is 20499.25, and MA60 is 20337.83 [8]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The MA5 of the Aluminum Alloy main - contract (SHFE 6463) is 20073.00, MA10 is 20068.50, and MA20 is 19962.50 [10]. 2. Upstream of the Industrial Chain - **Bauxite**: In June 2025, China imported 18.12 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%; from January to June, the cumulative import volume reached 103.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34%. From January to May 2025, China's bauxite production was 22.017 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.38%. Due to environmental protection and resource depletion, domestic bauxite production has declined, and the degree of external dependence will increase in the long term, but short - term fluctuations may be affected by factors such as shipping costs and geopolitics [15]. - **Alumina**: In June 2025, China's alumina production was 7.749 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%; from January to June, the cumulative production was 45.151 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%. Since 2024, alumina production has shown a slight increase, and in 2025, with the resumption of production and new capacity, the growth rate has further increased, and it is expected to achieve double - digit growth for the whole year. As of July 25, 2025, the total alumina inventory (market + factory) was 1.7235 million tons, and it is expected to continue to rise slightly in the second half of the year [20][23]. 3. Middle - Stream of the Industrial Chain - **Primary Aluminum Import**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum import volume was about 1.924 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative import volume was about 12.499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Since 2024, primary aluminum imports have increased significantly, and it is expected to remain at a high level in the future [29]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Capacity**: The total electrolytic aluminum capacity is relatively stable with a slight increase. Since 2024, the operating capacity has continued to grow due to sufficient hydropower in the southwest and new capacity investment. In 2025, with the decline in alumina prices and the increase in profits, the operating capacity has maintained a high - level operation [32]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In June 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.809 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%; from January to June, the cumulative production was 22.379 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. In June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.57% year - on - year and decreased by 3.23% month - on - month. It is expected that the aluminum - water ratio will decline in July [35]. - **Aluminum Plant Profits**: As of July 29, 2025, the full cost of self - supplied power aluminum plants is about 14,227 yuan/ton, with an immediate profit of 652 yuan/ton; the full cost of grid - connected power aluminum plants is about 18,455 yuan/ton, with an immediate profit of 2,124 yuan/ton, maintaining a high level [39]. - **Aluminum Ingot Inventory**: In 2024, the aluminum ingot inventory change was small. In 2025, the inventory first decreased and then increased. Now it has entered the slack season and is in the process of slight inventory accumulation [42]. 4. Downstream of the Industrial Chain - **Aluminum Processing Industry**: Since 2023, the overall operating rate of the aluminum processing industry has been low, except for the aluminum foil and aluminum plate - strip sectors with an operating rate of 70% - 90%. In 2025, after the Spring Festival, the resumption of work varied. In the slack season, the operating rate of each sector declined, but the profile sector showed a slight increase [50]. - **Aluminum Alloy Import and Export**: In June 2025, the import volume of un - wrought aluminum alloy was 77,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 20.2%. From January to June, the cumulative import volume was 542,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.6%. The export volume in June was 25,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.8% and a month - on - month increase of 66%. From January to June, the cumulative export volume was 120,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [53]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy Production**: From January to June 2025, China's recycled aluminum alloy ingot production reached 3.5593 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 20.65% [56]. - **Aluminum Alloy Inventory**: Since 2025, the aluminum alloy ingot inventory has increased, especially after entering the slack season in May, and it is expected to continue to rise in the short term [59]. - **Aluminum Product Export**: In June 2025, China exported 489,000 tons of un - wrought aluminum and aluminum products; from January to June, the cumulative export volume was 2.918 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0%. Affected by global trade barriers and tariffs, aluminum product exports may continue to decline [63]. 5. Industrial Chain Terminals - **Real Estate**: In the first half of 2025, real - estate investment, sales area, and new - construction area all declined. The real - estate market is still at the bottom, and it will take time to recover [69][72]. - **Automobile**: In June 2025, automobile production and sales were 2.794 million and 2.904 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% and 13.8%. From January to June, the cumulative production and sales were 15.621 million and 15.653 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% and 11.4%. The development of new - energy vehicles is rapid, but there is an "anti - involution" expectation, and the growth rate may slow down [75]. - **Home Appliance**: In June 2025, the production of air - conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines increased to varying degrees. However, since 2025, the growth rate of the three major home appliances has slowed down, and it is expected to weaken further in the second half of the year [78]. - **Power Grid Investment**: During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, China plans to invest 388 billion yuan in 38 UHV projects. In 2025, at least 2 AC and 4 DC UHV lines will start construction. From January to June, the national power grid project investment was 254 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 23.7%, and it is expected to maintain high - speed growth [81]. - **Photovoltaic**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity in China was 212.2 GW, a year - on - year increase of 107%. It is expected that China's new photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 250 GW in 2025, and the global new installed capacity will reach about 580 GW. After the end of the first - half rush - installation and the "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic field, the industry has cooled down [84]. - **Recycled Aluminum Import**: In June 2025, China imported 156,000 tons of scrap aluminum, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6% and a year - on - year increase of 11.4%. From January to June, the cumulative import volume was 1.012 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. The import of scrap aluminum is expected to remain strong due to the large price difference between refined and scrap aluminum [87]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance - **Alumina**: In 2025, the supply of alumina has become more relaxed, and it is expected to maintain this state in the second half of the year [88]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In 2025, the supply - demand situation of electrolytic aluminum has deteriorated compared with 2024, and the degree of oversupply is expected to be more serious [89]. 7. Aluminum Price Seasonal Analysis Based on a 5 - year statistics up to 2025, the expected return of aluminum price from January 1st to December 31st is 1.15%, with 3 times of price increase and 2 times of price decrease. The maximum amplitude is 9.05%, the minimum amplitude is 4.63%, and the average amplitude is 6.56% [92].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mainstream transaction price of bauxite in Guinea decreased by $0.4 per dry ton to $72.5 per dry ton. The rainy season in Guinea has affected bauxite mining and transportation, leading to a decline in bauxite shipments, which supports the ore price. However, market rumors of the resumption of a large mine in Guinea may reverse the expected structural shortage of imported ore supply in the third quarter, so the upward range of the ore price is expected to be limited [3][10]. - The operating capacity of alumina increased by 1.1 million tons week - on - week to 94.95 million tons, and the national alumina inventory increased by 19,000 tons week - on - week to 3.207 million tons. With the gradual resumption of production of reduced - capacity and the release of new capacity, the operating capacity of alumina is gradually recovering. Bullish sentiment has cooled, and alumina may face an adjustment [3][14]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased steadily, with a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons to 44.214 million tons. Some remaining capacity in Guizhou Anshun is being resumed, the replacement capacity of Yunlv Yixin is being put into production, and the technical renovation project of Baise Yinhai is gradually resuming production. The downstream demand of aluminum is weakening, with the weekly average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreasing by 0.1% to 58.8%. The inventory of aluminum ingots decreased, while the inventory of aluminum rods increased [3]. - In the case of recycled cast aluminum alloy, downstream enterprises are gradually entering the high - temperature holiday, with insufficient new orders. High scrap aluminum prices and a sharp increase in industrial silicon prices have led to great loss pressure on enterprises, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum enterprises will continue the downward trend [3]. - The short - term risk of aluminum prices is still high, and it is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to market changes. The Fed's interest - rate meeting and the China - US London talks are about to take place, and attention should be paid to the meeting results and negotiation outcomes [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Strategy Suggestions - Alumina: It is recommended to lay out short positions at high levels when the price rebounds [4]. - Shanghai Aluminum: It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.2. Bauxite - The supply of domestic bauxite is tightening, and the price is temporarily stable. Stricter safety production supervision and environmental inspections in Shanxi and Henan have restricted bauxite mining activities, and some mines have suspended production. Frequent rainfall in major domestic producing areas has also restricted ore mining [10]. - The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk bauxite decreased by $0.4 per dry ton to $72.5 per dry ton. The rainy season in Guinea has affected bauxite mining and transportation, and the bauxite shipment volume has shown a downward trend. The expected tightening of spot supply supports the upward movement of the ore price, but the expected structural shortage of imported ore supply in the third quarter may be reversed, so the upward range of the ore price is limited [3][10]. 3.3. Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - up capacity of alumina was 113.02 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 100,000 tons, the operating capacity was 94.95 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.1 million tons, and the operating rate was 84.01%. The domestic spot weighted price was 3,257 yuan per ton, with a week - on - week increase of 37.9 yuan per ton. The national alumina inventory was 3.207 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 19,000 tons [14]. - Newly invested capacity in Shandong, Guangxi, and other regions is gradually contributing to alumina production. A medium - sized alumina enterprise in Shandong has expanded and upgraded its capacity, and it is expected to reach full production this week. Although a red mud reservoir in a south - western alumina enterprise has a landslide risk due to heavy rain, the current production has not been affected [14]. 3.4. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - up capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.232 million tons, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the operating capacity was 44.214 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons [23]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing steadily. Some remaining capacity in Guizhou Anshun is being resumed, the replacement capacity of Yunlv Yixin is being put into production, contributing a net increase of 35,000 tons of capacity, and the 120,000 - ton capacity of the Baise Yinhai technical renovation project will be gradually powered on and resumed production in the third quarter [3][23]. 3.5. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy leading enterprises decreased by 0.3% week - on - week to 53.1%. Downstream enterprises are gradually entering the high - temperature holiday, with insufficient new orders. High scrap aluminum prices and a sharp increase in industrial silicon prices have led to great loss pressure on enterprises, and the operating rate will continue the downward trend. However, recent concentrated shipments from delivery brand enterprises to spot - futures traders support the operating rate to remain relatively high in the off - season [34]. 3.6. Downstream开工率 - The weekly average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.1% to 58.7%. - Aluminum profiles: The operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises remained stable at 50.5% week - on - week. In the industrial profile segment, the operating rate remained unchanged. In the building profile segment, affected by the downturn in the real estate industry and seasonal factors, sample enterprises reported average existing orders and weak new orders, and the operating rate remained unchanged [43]. - Aluminum plates and strips: The operating rate of aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises remained stable at 63.2% week - on - week. With high aluminum prices, downstream customers are waiting and watching, and the finished product inventory of each aluminum plate and strip enterprise is high. Enterprises reported that it is the off - season for exports, and there is little hope for the recovery of export orders. In addition, aluminum plate and strip enterprises in various regions have not reduced production due to high - temperature power rationing [43]. - Aluminum cables: The operating rate of domestic cable leading enterprises decreased by 0.4% week - on - week to 61.6%. Although the operating rate of some enterprises has improved marginally due to order scheduling and the delivery of UHV and power transmission and transformation orders, some enterprises' strategy of reducing raw material and finished product inventories has led to a weakening of the overall operating rate. Attention should be paid to whether the matching of power grid orders in August can reopen the industry's concentrated delivery cycle [46]. - Primary aluminum alloy: The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy leading enterprises remained stable at 54% week - on - week. Although the task of aluminum - water alloying and the strategy of aluminum rod conversion continue to provide marginal support, most sample enterprises are restricted by weak terminal demand, insufficient new orders, thin profit margins, and high - temperature holidays, and the operating rate is weakly stable [46].

Report Title - The title of the report is "Aluminum Industry Chain Daily Review 20250724: Domestic Bauxite Supply and Demand Expected to Be Loose in July, Domestic Electrolytic Aluminum Social Inventory Increases Month-on-Month" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The domestic bauxite supply and demand in July are expected to be loose, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory has increased month-on-month [1] - For different aluminum products, due to various factors such as cost changes, policy expectations, and inventory levels, the price increase space may be limited, and investors are advised to hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high prices [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Market Data - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 23, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai aluminum futures was 20,790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan compared to the previous day; the SMM A00 electrolytic aluminum average price was 20,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan. The national alumina average price was 3,239.18 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.41 yuan [2] - **Price Spreads**: The Shanghai aluminum basis was 60 yuan, an increase of 20 yuan; the spread between Shanghai aluminum near - month and Shanghai aluminum continuous - one was 25 yuan, unchanged; the spread between Shanghai aluminum continuous - one and Shanghai aluminum continuous - two was 45 yuan, a decrease of 20 yuan [2] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai aluminum futures was 57,723 tons, a decrease of 3,161 tons; the inventory of LME 3 - month aluminum futures (registration and cancellation of warehouse receipts) was N/A on July 23, 2025, and it was 124,825 tons on July 22 [2] Industry News and Company Plans - **Ouxiang Alloy**: Plans to raise no more than 600 million yuan through private placement to promote its recycled deformed lead - alloy project, with funds invested in Anhui Yubo's annual 630,000 - ton lead - ball - protected lead - alloy flat ingot project and annual 600,000 - ton green - cycle high - performance aluminum plate strip project [3] - **Tajikistan**: Aims to achieve an average annual growth rate of 20% in primary aluminum output in the next three years, and its aluminum output in 2025 is expected to reach the level of 101,000 tons in 2019 [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - **Alumina**: Domestic bauxite production (import) proportion increases, and supply and demand are expected to be loose. Chinese alumina production in July may increase month - on - month due to project construction. Overseas alumina production in July may also increase month - on - month. The import window is closed, and domestic port alumina inventory has decreased [3] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Chinese electrolytic aluminum production in July - August may increase month - on - month due to project start - up and production resumption. Domestic electrolytic aluminum import volume may increase month - on - month, but the import window closure may limit imports. Social inventory has increased, and the downstream processing enterprise capacity utilization rate has changed [3] - **Aluminum Alloy**: Chinese scrap aluminum production (import) may increase month - on - month. The primary aluminum alloy capacity utilization rate remains flat, while the recycled aluminum alloy capacity utilization rate has decreased [3] Trading Strategies - **Alumina**: Suggest investors to hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high prices, and pay attention to the support level around 3,000 - 3,200 yuan/ton and the pressure level around 3,800 - 4,200 yuan/ton [3] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Advise investors to hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high prices, and pay attention to the support level around 20,000 - 20,300 yuan/ton and the pressure level around 21,000 - 21,500 yuan/ton for domestic aluminum, and the support level around 2,300 - 2,500 and the pressure level around 2,700 - 2,800 for LME aluminum [3] - **Aluminum Alloy**: Recommend investors to hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high prices, and pay attention to the support level around 19,700 - 20,000 yuan/ton and the pressure level around 20,500 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]