| | 变量名称 2025-08-25 2025-08-22 2025-08-19 较昨日变动 近期走势 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘价 20770 20630 20545 | 140.00 | | | | | 沪铝期货活跃合约 | 成交量(手) 146160 134574 105187 | 11,586.00 | | | | | | 持仓量(手) 248343 237287 234699 | 11, 056. 00 | | | | | | 库存(吨) 56670 57144 65467 | -474.00 | | | | | 沪铝基差 | SMM A00电解铝平均价 20780 20710 06600 | 70. 00 | | | | | (现货与期货) | 沪铝基差 10 80 45 沪铝近月-沪铝连一 15 20 20 | -70.00 -5. 00 | | | | | 价差(近月与远月) | 沪铝连一-沪铝连二 30 35 25 | -5. 00 | | | | | | 沪铝连二-沪铝连二 35 35 25 | 0. 00 ...

| | 变量名称 2025-08-25 2025-08-22 2025-08-19 较昨日变动 近期走势 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘价 20770 20630 20545 | 140.00 | | | | | 沪铝期货活跃合约 | 成交量(手) 146160 134574 105187 | 11,586.00 | | | | | | 持仓量(手) 248343 237287 234699 | 11, 056. 00 | | | | | | 库存(吨) 56670 57144 65467 | -474.00 | | | | | 沪铝基差 | SMM A00电解铝平均价 20780 20710 06600 | 70. 00 | | | | | (现货与期货) | 沪铝基差 10 80 45 沪铝近月-沪铝连一 15 20 20 | -70.00 -5. 00 | | | | | 价差(近月与远月) | 沪铝连一-沪铝连二 30 35 25 | -5. 00 | | | | | | 沪铝连二-沪铝连二 35 35 25 | 0. 00 ...

铝产业链周报 氧 化 铝 ： 短 期 维 持 窄 幅 震 荡 ， 中 期 过 剩 格 局 不 改 电 解 铝 ： 宏 观 扰 动 频 繁 ， 消 费 边 际 改 善 累 库 放 缓 铝 合 金 ： 税 收 政 策 扰 动 供 应 趋 紧 叠 加 进 口 减 量 明 显 ， 周 度 市 场 去 库 周敏波 投资咨询资格：Z0010559 本报告中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明。 2025/08/23 目录 01 行情回顾 02 宏观及终端需求 03 产业供需基本面 2 观点汇总 | 品种 | 主要观点 | 操作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | | 氧化铝 | 本周氧化铝盘面偏弱运行，主因仓单数量自月初6000余吨显著增加至当前7.8万吨。现货市 | 短期运行区间3000-3300，中 期逢高布局空单 | | | 场呈现南北分化：南方报价仍显坚挺，但下游对高价接受度有限；北方地区供应宽松，电 | | | | 解铝生产以刚需采购为主，厂库持续累积，现货价格承压明显。基本面看，几内亚铝土矿 | | | | 受雨季运输效率下降影响，矿端供应存在收紧预期，对成本形成支撑。然而当前氧 ...

Report Summary - There is no specific investment rating provided for the industry in the report [2] - The core view of the report is that in the aluminum industry, the overall supply and demand situation is complex. The supply side shows different trends in various links such as bauxite, alumina, and electrolytic aluminum, while the demand side is affected by factors like consumption expectations and seasonal patterns. The market is also influenced by macro - economic factors such as the Fed's interest rate expectations and domestic economic data [8][36] Multi - Empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: The overall fluctuation of power information and the Fed's rate - cut expectation continue to rise, affecting market sentiment. The consumption expectation is not overly pessimistic [8] - **Bearish factors**: The water - discount range has expanded, and inventory has climbed. The US employment data has weakened, and the inventory has risen [8][9] Data Analysis Bauxite - In June 2025, domestic bauxite production was 5.1933 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 173,100 tons but a year - on - year increase of 203,600 tons. The daily output was 173,100 tons, remaining flat month - on - month. In July, the domestic bauxite market was stable, but rainfall in major producing areas restricted production. The procurement price in Shanxi remained stable [18] - In May, over 40 mining enterprises in Guinea had their mining licenses revoked. However, a mining enterprise resumed production, changing the supply from a tight - balance expectation to an oversupply expectation. In the first half of the year, China's bauxite imports increased by 26.086 million tons year - on - year to 103.403 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 33.74%. The port inventory also increased. Although the subsequent imports may decline due to the rainy season, the price is expected to have limited rebound [22] Alumina - As of late July, the national alumina production capacity was 113.02 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from late June. The operating capacity was 94.95 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons from late June, reaching a new high for the year. The operating rate was 84.01%, a 1.5 - percentage - point increase [25] - In June 2025, China exported 171,000 tons of alumina, a month - on - month decrease of 17.7% but a year - on - year increase of 8.8%. From January to June, the cumulative export was 1.343 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.7%. In June, the import was 101,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 50% and a year - on - year increase of 168.4%. From January to June, the cumulative import was 268,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 77.4%. The net export in June was 69,700 tons, and the cumulative net export from January to June was 1.075 million tons. The import volume may increase in the second half of the year [25] Electrolytic Aluminum - The growth space of domestic electrolytic aluminum production is limited. The capacity utilization rate has exceeded 95%. From January to June, the cumulative production was 21.6948 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.42%. In June, the production was 3.609 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.57% but a month - on - month decrease of 3.23% [29] - As of late July, the national electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 45.232 million tons, a monthly increase of 25,000 tons. The operating capacity was 44.214 million tons, a monthly increase of 55,000 tons, and the operating rate was 97.8% [29] - Electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a profit of over 3,000 yuan per ton in the second half of the year due to limited new capacity, high capacity utilization rate, rigid supply, and low inventory [32] Downstream - In the off - season, downstream demand returns to the rigid - demand rhythm. In July, the average operating rate of aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 58.7%, a 1.3% month - on - month decline [36] - In the first half of the year, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity exceeded 200GW, but the installation slowed down in June. The new installed capacity in June was 14.36GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38% [40] - From January to June, the national real estate development investment was 4.6658 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. Other real estate indicators such as construction area, new construction area, and completion area also showed declines [44] Inventory - Last week, LME aluminum inventory rebounded to 469,500 tons. As of the week of August 1, SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 1,737 tons to 117,500 tons [48] - As of August 7, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major Chinese markets was 549,000 tons, a 2,000 - ton increase from Monday. The inventory is still at a relatively low level, and the exchange warehouse receipt inventory has declined to around 43,000 tons, supporting the aluminum price [52] Price and Import - On August 7, the average price of Shanghai Wumaoh aluminum had a discount of - 60 yuan per ton, with the discount range expanding. The LME aluminum 0 - 3 discount was 0.65 dollars per ton, with the discount range narrowing [56] - China's scrap aluminum imports in August may decrease month - on - month due to intense overseas competition, geopolitical conflicts, and positive domestic refined - scrap aluminum price differences [60] Aluminum Alloys - The production capacity operating rate of China's primary aluminum alloy increased compared to last week, with a daily full - cost production cost of 20,400 yuan per ton [64] - The production capacity operating rate of China's recycled aluminum alloy remained the same as last week. The daily full - cost production cost of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 19,950 yuan per ton, and the profit was negative [68] - As of August 8, China's weekly social inventory of aluminum alloy was 48,400 tons, a 2,400 - ton increase from last week. The in - factory inventory was 60,700 tons, a 3,300 - ton decrease from last week [72] 后市研判 - Aluminum alloy futures prices will follow the upward trend of electrolytic aluminum futures [74] - For SHFE aluminum, the "Golden September and Silver October" demand peak season is approaching, and the consumption expectation is not overly pessimistic. The 60 - day moving average of 20,400 provides support [77]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since July, the Shanghai Aluminum futures have fluctuated, rising first and then falling, driven by sector resonance and cost - side logic. Alumina has experienced significant fluctuations under the so - called "anti - involution" drive, but the impact on the alumina industry is limited. Cast aluminum alloy's trend is similar to that of Shanghai Aluminum, slightly stronger, with a slightly upward - shifted center of gravity after July's fluctuations. Overall, except for alumina, the aluminum industry chain has been relatively calm and deviated from the fundamentals [94]. - Fundamentally, the upstream of the industry chain remains relatively loose. Ore imports have increased, and domestic mine activities are relatively few. Alumina production capacity utilization is high, and new capacity is gradually being put into operation. Electrolytic aluminum plants have high operating capacity due to cost reduction and profit increase. The downstream processing industry shows a slack - season performance, but profiles, primary alloys, and cable sectors are relatively strong. In the terminal market, State Grid orders in the first half of the year boosted the demand for aluminum cables, but now it's the seasonal slack season with reduced demand. In the third quarter, new centralized tenders are expected to stabilize and improve the situation. The end of the photovoltaic rush - installation in the first half and the "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic field have cooled the related industries, and it's hard to see improvement in the next 1 - 2 months. Other traditional demand terminals are relatively stable, with the growth of the automotive industry, especially new - energy vehicles, expected to slow down. The real - estate sector is still at the bottom, and the home - appliance industry shows resilience due to policy support. In August, the downstream aluminum processing industry is still in the slack season, and it's difficult for the operating rate to increase significantly in the short term. Low ingot volume in the industry leads to a continuous decline in inventory, and low inventory levels make price fluctuations more likely [94]. - In August, after the "anti - involution" cools down, the commodity market will adjust, and the non - ferrous sector, which has limited previous gains, will also be affected. Alumina will be most affected, and aluminum and aluminum alloy prices are also difficult to maintain at high levels. Attention should be paid to the warehouse - receipt level near the delivery date to prevent short - term price fluctuations. Shanghai Aluminum is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 20,000 - 20,800; Alumina may return to around 3000, with a main operating range of 2900 - 3500; Cast aluminum alloy will also run weakly in the range of 19,500 - 20,200 [94]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Alumina**: The MA5 of the Alumina main - contract (SHFE 6273) is 3357.60, MA10 is 3326.40, MA20 is 3217.10, MA40 is 3067.30, and MA60 is 3041.18 [6]. - **Aluminum**: The MA5 of the Shanghai Aluminum main - contract (SHFE 2214) is 20672.00, MA10 is 20681.50, MA20 is 20614.75, MA40 is 20499.25, and MA60 is 20337.83 [8]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The MA5 of the Aluminum Alloy main - contract (SHFE 6463) is 20073.00, MA10 is 20068.50, and MA20 is 19962.50 [10]. 2. Upstream of the Industrial Chain - **Bauxite**: In June 2025, China imported 18.12 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%; from January to June, the cumulative import volume reached 103.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34%. From January to May 2025, China's bauxite production was 22.017 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.38%. Due to environmental protection and resource depletion, domestic bauxite production has declined, and the degree of external dependence will increase in the long term, but short - term fluctuations may be affected by factors such as shipping costs and geopolitics [15]. - **Alumina**: In June 2025, China's alumina production was 7.749 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%; from January to June, the cumulative production was 45.151 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%. Since 2024, alumina production has shown a slight increase, and in 2025, with the resumption of production and new capacity, the growth rate has further increased, and it is expected to achieve double - digit growth for the whole year. As of July 25, 2025, the total alumina inventory (market + factory) was 1.7235 million tons, and it is expected to continue to rise slightly in the second half of the year [20][23]. 3. Middle - Stream of the Industrial Chain - **Primary Aluminum Import**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum import volume was about 1.924 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative import volume was about 12.499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Since 2024, primary aluminum imports have increased significantly, and it is expected to remain at a high level in the future [29]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Capacity**: The total electrolytic aluminum capacity is relatively stable with a slight increase. Since 2024, the operating capacity has continued to grow due to sufficient hydropower in the southwest and new capacity investment. In 2025, with the decline in alumina prices and the increase in profits, the operating capacity has maintained a high - level operation [32]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In June 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.809 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%; from January to June, the cumulative production was 22.379 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. In June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.57% year - on - year and decreased by 3.23% month - on - month. It is expected that the aluminum - water ratio will decline in July [35]. - **Aluminum Plant Profits**: As of July 29, 2025, the full cost of self - supplied power aluminum plants is about 14,227 yuan/ton, with an immediate profit of 652 yuan/ton; the full cost of grid - connected power aluminum plants is about 18,455 yuan/ton, with an immediate profit of 2,124 yuan/ton, maintaining a high level [39]. - **Aluminum Ingot Inventory**: In 2024, the aluminum ingot inventory change was small. In 2025, the inventory first decreased and then increased. Now it has entered the slack season and is in the process of slight inventory accumulation [42]. 4. Downstream of the Industrial Chain - **Aluminum Processing Industry**: Since 2023, the overall operating rate of the aluminum processing industry has been low, except for the aluminum foil and aluminum plate - strip sectors with an operating rate of 70% - 90%. In 2025, after the Spring Festival, the resumption of work varied. In the slack season, the operating rate of each sector declined, but the profile sector showed a slight increase [50]. - **Aluminum Alloy Import and Export**: In June 2025, the import volume of un - wrought aluminum alloy was 77,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 20.2%. From January to June, the cumulative import volume was 542,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.6%. The export volume in June was 25,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.8% and a month - on - month increase of 66%. From January to June, the cumulative export volume was 120,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [53]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy Production**: From January to June 2025, China's recycled aluminum alloy ingot production reached 3.5593 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 20.65% [56]. - **Aluminum Alloy Inventory**: Since 2025, the aluminum alloy ingot inventory has increased, especially after entering the slack season in May, and it is expected to continue to rise in the short term [59]. - **Aluminum Product Export**: In June 2025, China exported 489,000 tons of un - wrought aluminum and aluminum products; from January to June, the cumulative export volume was 2.918 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0%. Affected by global trade barriers and tariffs, aluminum product exports may continue to decline [63]. 5. Industrial Chain Terminals - **Real Estate**: In the first half of 2025, real - estate investment, sales area, and new - construction area all declined. The real - estate market is still at the bottom, and it will take time to recover [69][72]. - **Automobile**: In June 2025, automobile production and sales were 2.794 million and 2.904 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% and 13.8%. From January to June, the cumulative production and sales were 15.621 million and 15.653 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% and 11.4%. The development of new - energy vehicles is rapid, but there is an "anti - involution" expectation, and the growth rate may slow down [75]. - **Home Appliance**: In June 2025, the production of air - conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines increased to varying degrees. However, since 2025, the growth rate of the three major home appliances has slowed down, and it is expected to weaken further in the second half of the year [78]. - **Power Grid Investment**: During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, China plans to invest 388 billion yuan in 38 UHV projects. In 2025, at least 2 AC and 4 DC UHV lines will start construction. From January to June, the national power grid project investment was 254 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 23.7%, and it is expected to maintain high - speed growth [81]. - **Photovoltaic**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity in China was 212.2 GW, a year - on - year increase of 107%. It is expected that China's new photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 250 GW in 2025, and the global new installed capacity will reach about 580 GW. After the end of the first - half rush - installation and the "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic field, the industry has cooled down [84]. - **Recycled Aluminum Import**: In June 2025, China imported 156,000 tons of scrap aluminum, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6% and a year - on - year increase of 11.4%. From January to June, the cumulative import volume was 1.012 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. The import of scrap aluminum is expected to remain strong due to the large price difference between refined and scrap aluminum [87]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance - **Alumina**: In 2025, the supply of alumina has become more relaxed, and it is expected to maintain this state in the second half of the year [88]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In 2025, the supply - demand situation of electrolytic aluminum has deteriorated compared with 2024, and the degree of oversupply is expected to be more serious [89]. 7. Aluminum Price Seasonal Analysis Based on a 5 - year statistics up to 2025, the expected return of aluminum price from January 1st to December 31st is 1.15%, with 3 times of price increase and 2 times of price decrease. The maximum amplitude is 9.05%, the minimum amplitude is 4.63%, and the average amplitude is 6.56% [92].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mainstream transaction price of bauxite in Guinea decreased by $0.4 per dry ton to $72.5 per dry ton. The rainy season in Guinea has affected bauxite mining and transportation, leading to a decline in bauxite shipments, which supports the ore price. However, market rumors of the resumption of a large mine in Guinea may reverse the expected structural shortage of imported ore supply in the third quarter, so the upward range of the ore price is expected to be limited [3][10]. - The operating capacity of alumina increased by 1.1 million tons week - on - week to 94.95 million tons, and the national alumina inventory increased by 19,000 tons week - on - week to 3.207 million tons. With the gradual resumption of production of reduced - capacity and the release of new capacity, the operating capacity of alumina is gradually recovering. Bullish sentiment has cooled, and alumina may face an adjustment [3][14]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased steadily, with a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons to 44.214 million tons. Some remaining capacity in Guizhou Anshun is being resumed, the replacement capacity of Yunlv Yixin is being put into production, and the technical renovation project of Baise Yinhai is gradually resuming production. The downstream demand of aluminum is weakening, with the weekly average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreasing by 0.1% to 58.8%. The inventory of aluminum ingots decreased, while the inventory of aluminum rods increased [3]. - In the case of recycled cast aluminum alloy, downstream enterprises are gradually entering the high - temperature holiday, with insufficient new orders. High scrap aluminum prices and a sharp increase in industrial silicon prices have led to great loss pressure on enterprises, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum enterprises will continue the downward trend [3]. - The short - term risk of aluminum prices is still high, and it is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to market changes. The Fed's interest - rate meeting and the China - US London talks are about to take place, and attention should be paid to the meeting results and negotiation outcomes [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Strategy Suggestions - Alumina: It is recommended to lay out short positions at high levels when the price rebounds [4]. - Shanghai Aluminum: It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.2. Bauxite - The supply of domestic bauxite is tightening, and the price is temporarily stable. Stricter safety production supervision and environmental inspections in Shanxi and Henan have restricted bauxite mining activities, and some mines have suspended production. Frequent rainfall in major domestic producing areas has also restricted ore mining [10]. - The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk bauxite decreased by $0.4 per dry ton to $72.5 per dry ton. The rainy season in Guinea has affected bauxite mining and transportation, and the bauxite shipment volume has shown a downward trend. The expected tightening of spot supply supports the upward movement of the ore price, but the expected structural shortage of imported ore supply in the third quarter may be reversed, so the upward range of the ore price is limited [3][10]. 3.3. Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - up capacity of alumina was 113.02 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 100,000 tons, the operating capacity was 94.95 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.1 million tons, and the operating rate was 84.01%. The domestic spot weighted price was 3,257 yuan per ton, with a week - on - week increase of 37.9 yuan per ton. The national alumina inventory was 3.207 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 19,000 tons [14]. - Newly invested capacity in Shandong, Guangxi, and other regions is gradually contributing to alumina production. A medium - sized alumina enterprise in Shandong has expanded and upgraded its capacity, and it is expected to reach full production this week. Although a red mud reservoir in a south - western alumina enterprise has a landslide risk due to heavy rain, the current production has not been affected [14]. 3.4. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - up capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.232 million tons, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the operating capacity was 44.214 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons [23]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing steadily. Some remaining capacity in Guizhou Anshun is being resumed, the replacement capacity of Yunlv Yixin is being put into production, contributing a net increase of 35,000 tons of capacity, and the 120,000 - ton capacity of the Baise Yinhai technical renovation project will be gradually powered on and resumed production in the third quarter [3][23]. 3.5. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy leading enterprises decreased by 0.3% week - on - week to 53.1%. Downstream enterprises are gradually entering the high - temperature holiday, with insufficient new orders. High scrap aluminum prices and a sharp increase in industrial silicon prices have led to great loss pressure on enterprises, and the operating rate will continue the downward trend. However, recent concentrated shipments from delivery brand enterprises to spot - futures traders support the operating rate to remain relatively high in the off - season [34]. 3.6. Downstream开工率 - The weekly average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.1% to 58.7%. - Aluminum profiles: The operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises remained stable at 50.5% week - on - week. In the industrial profile segment, the operating rate remained unchanged. In the building profile segment, affected by the downturn in the real estate industry and seasonal factors, sample enterprises reported average existing orders and weak new orders, and the operating rate remained unchanged [43]. - Aluminum plates and strips: The operating rate of aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises remained stable at 63.2% week - on - week. With high aluminum prices, downstream customers are waiting and watching, and the finished product inventory of each aluminum plate and strip enterprise is high. Enterprises reported that it is the off - season for exports, and there is little hope for the recovery of export orders. In addition, aluminum plate and strip enterprises in various regions have not reduced production due to high - temperature power rationing [43]. - Aluminum cables: The operating rate of domestic cable leading enterprises decreased by 0.4% week - on - week to 61.6%. Although the operating rate of some enterprises has improved marginally due to order scheduling and the delivery of UHV and power transmission and transformation orders, some enterprises' strategy of reducing raw material and finished product inventories has led to a weakening of the overall operating rate. Attention should be paid to whether the matching of power grid orders in August can reopen the industry's concentrated delivery cycle [46]. - Primary aluminum alloy: The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy leading enterprises remained stable at 54% week - on - week. Although the task of aluminum - water alloying and the strategy of aluminum rod conversion continue to provide marginal support, most sample enterprises are restricted by weak terminal demand, insufficient new orders, thin profit margins, and high - temperature holidays, and the operating rate is weakly stable [46].

Report Title - The title of the report is "Aluminum Industry Chain Daily Review 20250724: Domestic Bauxite Supply and Demand Expected to Be Loose in July, Domestic Electrolytic Aluminum Social Inventory Increases Month-on-Month" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The domestic bauxite supply and demand in July are expected to be loose, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory has increased month-on-month [1] - For different aluminum products, due to various factors such as cost changes, policy expectations, and inventory levels, the price increase space may be limited, and investors are advised to hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high prices [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Market Data - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 23, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai aluminum futures was 20,790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan compared to the previous day; the SMM A00 electrolytic aluminum average price was 20,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan. The national alumina average price was 3,239.18 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.41 yuan [2] - **Price Spreads**: The Shanghai aluminum basis was 60 yuan, an increase of 20 yuan; the spread between Shanghai aluminum near - month and Shanghai aluminum continuous - one was 25 yuan, unchanged; the spread between Shanghai aluminum continuous - one and Shanghai aluminum continuous - two was 45 yuan, a decrease of 20 yuan [2] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai aluminum futures was 57,723 tons, a decrease of 3,161 tons; the inventory of LME 3 - month aluminum futures (registration and cancellation of warehouse receipts) was N/A on July 23, 2025, and it was 124,825 tons on July 22 [2] Industry News and Company Plans - **Ouxiang Alloy**: Plans to raise no more than 600 million yuan through private placement to promote its recycled deformed lead - alloy project, with funds invested in Anhui Yubo's annual 630,000 - ton lead - ball - protected lead - alloy flat ingot project and annual 600,000 - ton green - cycle high - performance aluminum plate strip project [3] - **Tajikistan**: Aims to achieve an average annual growth rate of 20% in primary aluminum output in the next three years, and its aluminum output in 2025 is expected to reach the level of 101,000 tons in 2019 [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - **Alumina**: Domestic bauxite production (import) proportion increases, and supply and demand are expected to be loose. Chinese alumina production in July may increase month - on - month due to project construction. Overseas alumina production in July may also increase month - on - month. The import window is closed, and domestic port alumina inventory has decreased [3] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Chinese electrolytic aluminum production in July - August may increase month - on - month due to project start - up and production resumption. Domestic electrolytic aluminum import volume may increase month - on - month, but the import window closure may limit imports. Social inventory has increased, and the downstream processing enterprise capacity utilization rate has changed [3] - **Aluminum Alloy**: Chinese scrap aluminum production (import) may increase month - on - month. The primary aluminum alloy capacity utilization rate remains flat, while the recycled aluminum alloy capacity utilization rate has decreased [3] Trading Strategies - **Alumina**: Suggest investors to hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high prices, and pay attention to the support level around 3,000 - 3,200 yuan/ton and the pressure level around 3,800 - 4,200 yuan/ton [3] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Advise investors to hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high prices, and pay attention to the support level around 20,000 - 20,300 yuan/ton and the pressure level around 21,000 - 21,500 yuan/ton for domestic aluminum, and the support level around 2,300 - 2,500 and the pressure level around 2,700 - 2,800 for LME aluminum [3] - **Aluminum Alloy**: Recommend investors to hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high prices, and pay attention to the support level around 19,700 - 20,000 yuan/ton and the pressure level around 20,500 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]

Report Title - Aluminum Industry Chain Daily Review 20250710: The supply and demand of domestic bauxite in July are expected to be loose, and the total inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased month-on-month [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of domestic bauxite in July are expected to be loose, and the total inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased month-on-month [1] - The price of alumina may still have room to rise, and it is recommended that investors try to go long on the main contract at low levels [3] - The price of Shanghai aluminum may be slightly stronger, and it is recommended that investors try to go long on the main contract at low levels [3] - The price of cast aluminum alloy may still have room to rise, and it is recommended that investors try to go long on the main contract and pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of shorting the price difference between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy [3] Summary by Directory Market Data - **Shanghai Aluminum Futures**: On July 9, 2025, the closing price was 20,515 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 102,569 lots, down 7,014 lots; the open interest was 250,099 lots, down 4,627 lots; the inventory was 47,818 tons, up 600 tons [2] - **Shanghai Aluminum Basis**: The average price of SMM A00 electrolytic aluminum was 20,660 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan from the previous day; the Shanghai aluminum basis was 145 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the spread between the near-month and the first continuous contract of Shanghai aluminum was 185 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - **Alumina Spot Price**: The national average price of alumina was 3,124.52 yuan/ton, up 4.56 yuan from the previous day; the average prices in Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, Guangxi, and Guizhou increased by 10 yuan respectively; the average prices in Lianyungang and Bayuquan remained unchanged; the FOB price of Australian alumina was 366 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - **Alumina Futures Price**: On July 9, 2025, the closing price was 3,130 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 351,714 lots, down 88,255 lots; the open interest was 248,656 lots, down 19,098 lots; the inventory was 18,612 tons, unchanged [2] - **London Aluminum**: The closing price of LME 3-month aluminum futures (electronic trading) was 9,660 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars from the previous day; the spread between the 0-3 month contract of LME aluminum futures was 22.37 US dollars/ton, down 28.94 US dollars; the spread between the 3-15 month contract was -48.74 US dollars/ton, down 37.98 US dollars; the ratio of Shanghai-London aluminum prices was 7.8843, down 0.08 [2] Industry News - **Alumina**: In the second quarter of 2025, Vedanta's Lanji gacti alumina production reached a record high of 687,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 36%; the quarterly production of electrolytic aluminum was 605,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1% and flat month-on-month [3] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The theoretical average full cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,500 yuan/ton; the production capacity utilization rate and production volume of domestic electrolytic aluminum have decreased or remained flat compared with last week; the proportion of aluminum water production by domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises has decreased compared with last week [3] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The domestic scrap aluminum production and import volume in July may increase month-on-month; the production capacity utilization rate of domestic primary aluminum alloy has decreased compared with last week; the production capacity utilization rate of domestic recycled aluminum alloy has remained flat compared with last week [3] Trading Strategies - **Alumina**: It is recommended that investors try to go long on the main contract at low levels, paying attention to the support level around 2,600-2,800 yuan/ton and the resistance level around 3,300-3,600 yuan/ton [3] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: It is recommended that investors try to go long on the main contract at low levels, paying attention to the support level around 20,000-20,200 yuan/ton and the resistance level around 20,800-21,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum, and the support level around 2,300-2,500 US dollars/ton and the resistance level around 2,050-2,750 US dollars/ton for London aluminum [3] - **Aluminum Alloy**: It is recommended that investors try to go long on the main contract and pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of shorting the price difference between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy, paying attention to the support level around 19,500-19,700 yuan/ton and the resistance level around 19,900-20,000 yuan/ton [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum: Pay attention to the callback pressure as the downstream demand is triggering a negative feedback, and the inventory accumulation inflection point has been confirmed [3][4]. - Alumina: The valuation should not be set high as the "anti - involution" lacks industry details, and the market is in a new inventory accumulation cycle [5]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction End: Spreads, Volume, and Open Interest 3.1.1 Term Spreads - The term structure of Shanghai aluminum has changed to a C - structure, and the average SMM A00 aluminum premium has decreased from 100 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton. The term B - structure of alumina has narrowed [10]. 3.1.2 Monthly Spreads - The monthly spreads of Shanghai aluminum near - term contracts have narrowed [11]. 3.1.3 Open Interest and Volume - The open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract remained stable, while the trading volume decreased slightly. The open interest of the alumina main contract decreased slightly but remained at a high level, and the trading volume rebounded during the week [18]. 3.1.4 Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio - The open interest - to - inventory ratio of the Shanghai aluminum main contract has declined, and that of alumina has continued to fall and is at a historically low level [19]. 3.2 Inventory: Bauxite, Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Materials 3.2.1 Bauxite - Port inventory and inventory days decreased. As of July 4, the port inventory of imported bauxite decreased by 650,000 tons week - on - week. In May, the port inventory and inventory days showed a continuous accumulation trend [24]. - In May, the bauxite inventory of alumina enterprises rebounded, with an increase of 4.487 million tons month - on - month [29]. - Port shipments and sea - floating inventory rebounded. As of July 4, the port shipments from Guinea and Australia increased by 62,900 tons and 150,300 tons respectively week - on - week. The sea - floating inventory from Guinea and Australia increased by 9.04 million tons and 4.678 million tons respectively week - on - week [30]. - Out - port volume decreased, and in - port volume increased slightly. As of June 27, the out - port volume from Australia and Guinea decreased, while the SMM - caliber bauxite in - port volume increased by 698,300 tons week - on - week [34]. 3.2.2 Alumina - The national total inventory continued to accumulate, with an increase of 23,000 tons week - on - week. The plant - level inventory remained stable, the electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina inventory increased slightly, the port inventory accumulated, and the platform/in - transit inventory decreased [43]. - The Aladdin full - caliber inventory continued to accumulate. As of July 3, the national alumina inventory was 3.162 million tons, an increase of 25,000 tons week - on - week [48]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - The inventory accumulation inflection point has been confirmed, but the amplitude is not large. As of July 3, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 6,000 tons to 466,000 tons [49]. 3.2.4 Aluminum Rod - Spot inventory and plant - level inventory accumulated, and the out - port volume decreased [55]. 3.2.5 Aluminum Profiles and Plate - Foil - The raw material and finished product inventory ratios showed differentiation. In May, the SMM - caliber finished product inventory ratio of aluminum profiles decreased slightly, while that of plate - foil increased slightly [57]. 3.3 Production: Output, Capacity, and Operating Rate 3.3.1 Bauxite - In May, the domestic bauxite supply showed differentiation. The overall domestic bauxite supply contracted, and the imported bauxite supply was an important increment. The production in Shanxi, Henan, and Guangxi decreased significantly [63][64]. 3.3.2 Alumina - The capacity utilization rate remained stable, but the fundamental supply - loose pattern remained unchanged. As of July 4, the national operating total capacity was 90.8 million tons, an increase of 800,000 tons week - on - week. The domestic metallurgical - grade alumina output was 1.748 million tons, an increase of 19,000 tons week - on - week [69]. 3.3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - The operating capacity remained at a high level, and the aluminum - water ratio increased seasonally. As of May, the operating capacity continued to be high, and the capacity utilization rate increased significantly. As of July 3, the weekly output was 844,200 tons, a decrease of 70 tons week - on - week [74]. 3.3.4 Downstream Processing - The output of recycled aluminum rods, aluminum rods, and plate - foil decreased slightly. The output of recycled aluminum rods decreased by 730 tons week - on - week, the output of aluminum rods decreased by 7,900 tons week - on - week, and the output of plate - foil decreased by 800 tons week - on - week [77]. - The operating rate of leading downstream aluminum enterprises continued to decline, with a 0.1% decrease to 58.7% week - on - week. The operating rates of various sectors were generally under pressure [78]. 3.4 Profit: Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Materials 3.4.1 Alumina - The profit decreased slightly. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina was 300.3 yuan/ton. The profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan decreased, while that in Guangxi was better [84]. 3.4.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - The profit remained at a high level, but uncertain factors interfered with market expectations due to the complex global macro - economic situation and geopolitical conflicts [94]. 3.4.3 Downstream Processing - The processing fee of aluminum rods increased slightly, but the downstream processing profit remained at a low level [95]. 3.5 Consumption: Import and Export Profits and Losses, and Apparent Demand 3.5.1 Import Profits and Losses - The import profits and losses of alumina and Shanghai aluminum were basically stable [103]. 3.5.2 Export - From January to May, the cumulative year - on - year export of processed materials decreased. In May, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products continued to increase, with a month - on - month increase of 29,000 tons [105]. - The export profits and losses of aluminum processed materials showed differentiation, and the export demand was hindered by trade policy adjustments [108]. 3.5.3 Consumption Absolute Quantity - The transaction area of commercial housing decreased, while the automobile production increased month - on - month [114].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum is oscillating strongly with low inventory unchanged, and attention should be paid to the potential transmission of downstream negative feedback. The key contradiction lies in the total installation volume and production scheduling rhythm in the second half of the year. The confirmation of the demand inflection point still needs to wait for the confirmation of the inventory inflection point and changes in export shipping capacity. The downstream processing profit is at a low level in the same period over the years, and attention should be paid to the potential negative feedback and the resilience of downstream buying interest [3]. - Alumina has low inventory and low warehouse receipts, and the futures price is oscillating slightly higher. The resumption of production continues, but the dilemma of low inventory and few warehouse receipts remains unchanged. The valuation at the current price has become a key point affecting the long - short game. Attention should be paid to the accumulation of resumption of production to inventory and changes in port inventory [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Trading End: Spreads, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - **Term Spreads**: The term B structure of Shanghai aluminum and alumina has narrowed. The average price of SMM A00 aluminum premium has changed from 180 yuan/ton to 100 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) premium has changed from 50 yuan/ton to -5 yuan/ton. The premium of Shandong alumina to the current month has changed from 248 yuan/ton to 119 yuan/ton, and that of Henan alumina has changed from 258 yuan/ton to 124 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The monthly spread of Shanghai aluminum has widened [10]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract has increased significantly, and the trading volume has also increased. The open interest of the alumina main contract has remained stable at a high level, and the trading volume has rebounded this week [12]. - **Open Interest - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - inventory ratio of Shanghai aluminum has declined, and that of alumina has continued to decline and is at a historically low level [18]. Inventory: Bauxite, Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Products - **Bauxite**: Port inventory and inventory days have increased. As of June 27, the weekly imported bauxite port inventory has increased by 1760000 tons compared with last week. As of May, the bauxite port inventory and inventory days in China according to the阿拉丁 caliber have continued to increase. The port shipping volume has declined, and the floating inventory has shown differentiation. The alumina enterprises' bauxite inventory has rebounded in May [24][29][30]. - **Alumina**: The national total inventory has increased. As of June 26, the national alumina inventory has increased by 13000 tons to 3137000 tons compared with last week. The inventory in the alumina plant, electrolytic aluminum plant, and port has increased, while the inventory in the yard/platform/in - transit has decreased slightly [50]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The inflection point of inventory accumulation needs further confirmation. As of June 26, the weekly inventory of aluminum ingot social inventory has increased by 10000 tons to 460000 tons [51]. - **Aluminum Rod**: Spot inventory and in - plant inventory have increased, and the shipping volume has declined [56]. - **Aluminum Profiles & Plate - Foil**: The raw material and finished product inventory ratios have shown differentiation. As of May, the finished product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles has declined slightly, and the raw material inventory ratio has also declined slightly. The finished product inventory of SMM aluminum plate - foil has rebounded slightly, and the raw material inventory has increased [59]. Production: Output, Production Capacity, and Operating Rate - **Bauxite**: The domestic bauxite supply has shown a recovery trend, but the domestic bauxite output has declined in May. The supply of imported bauxite is still an important increment. The production in different provinces has shown differentiation [63]. - **Alumina**: The production capacity utilization rate has remained stable, but the loose fundamental pattern has not been reversed. As of June 27, the total operating production capacity of national alumina is 90000000 tons, with a weekly increase of 1400000 tons. The weekly output of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina is 1729000 tons, an increase of 14000 tons compared with last week [70]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The operating production capacity remains at a high level, and the proportion of molten aluminum has increased seasonally. As of May, the operating production capacity of electrolytic aluminum has continued to remain at a high level, and the production capacity utilization rate has increased significantly. As of June 26, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum according to the steel union caliber is 844900 tons, an increase of 20 tons compared with last week [74]. - **Downstream Processing**: The output of aluminum plate - foil has continued to decline slightly. The output of recycled aluminum rods and aluminum rods has declined, and the operating rate of leading downstream aluminum enterprises has continued to decline, with a strong off - season atmosphere [75][77][78]. Profit: Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Products - **Alumina**: The smelter still has profits, and attention should be paid to the progress of maintenance and resumption of production. This week, the alumina profit has declined slightly, with the metallurgical - grade alumina profit of 304.9 yuan/ton according to the steel union caliber. The profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan have declined, while the profit in Guangxi is better [85]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit is still at a high level, but uncertain factors are interfering with market expectations. The complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies have increased uncertainty [92][95]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods has been significantly reduced, and the downstream processing profit is still at a low level [96]. Consumption: Import Profit and Loss, Export Profit and Loss, and Apparent Demand - **Import Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss of alumina and Shanghai aluminum have rebounded [104]. - **Export**: From January to May, the cumulative year - on - year export of processed aluminum products has declined. In May 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products has continued to rebound, with a month - on - month increase of 29000 tons [106]. - **Apparent Consumption Volume**: The commercial housing transaction area has rebounded, and the automobile production has increased month - on - month [115].