1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's expected rate cut in September and the time needed for the full resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, along with weak downstream demand in sectors like home appliances and solders, may cause Shanghai tin prices to weaken first and then strengthen. Investors are advised to buy on price dips, with attention on support and resistance levels [3]. - The negative basis and monthly spread of Shanghai tin are due to weak domestic demand in sectors such as home appliances and solder materials. Given the expected Fed rate cut in September, partial production suspension for maintenance of domestic refined tin capacity, and the decline in domestic refined tin social inventory, investors are recommended to pay attention to short - term, light - position arbitrage opportunities by going long on the Shanghai tin basis at low prices [6]. - The positive spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts, along with the Shanghai - London tin price ratio slightly below the 50% quantile of the past five years, are due to the expected Fed rate cut in September and the relatively low inventory of refined tin at the LME. It is suggested to temporarily watch the arbitrage opportunities of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads [9]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Supply - side - **Tin Ore**: Namibia's Uis mine's second concentrator started commissioning in late August with a maximum monthly ore - processing capacity of 40,000 tons. In Myanmar's Wa State, the first batch of 40 - 50 mines will resume production after paying fees, with an initial increment of no more than 10,000 metal tons and a 2 - 3 - month transmission period. These factors may lead to a month - on - month increase in domestic tin ore production and a decrease in imports in September [2][20]. - **Recycled Tin**: China's recycled tin production in September may decrease month - on - month [21][23]. - **Refined Tin**: The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi has decreased compared to last week. Yunnan Tin will conduct maintenance on smelting equipment from August 30 for no more than 45 days, resulting in a month - on - month decrease in China's refined tin production and an increase in inventory in September. Indonesia's export volume in September may decrease, which may lead to an increase in China's refined tin imports and a decrease in exports [2][27][31]. Demand - side - **Tin Solder**: China's tin solder capacity utilization rate in September may increase month - on - month, while inventory may decrease [35][37]. - **Photovoltaic Welding Tape**: China's photovoltaic welding tape imports in September may decrease month - on - month, and exports may increase [39][41]. - **Tin - Plated Sheet**: China's tin - plated sheet production, imports, and exports in September may all decrease month - on - month [43][45]. - **Integrated Circuits and Smartphones**: China's integrated circuit and smartphone production in September may increase month - on - month [47][50]. - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: China's lead - acid battery capacity utilization rate has decreased compared to last week [53][56]. Inventory - The inventory of refined tin in the SHFE has increased compared to last week; China's tin ingot social inventory has decreased; the inventory of refined tin at the LME has increased; the total domestic and foreign refined tin inventory has increased [12]. Price and Spread - China's tin concentrate price has increased compared to last week, and tin concentrate imports are still profitable. The daily processing fee of domestic tin concentrate has decreased, indicating a tight supply expectation [16]. - The basis of Shanghai tin is negative and at a relatively low level, and the monthly spread is negative and basically within a reasonable range [4][6]. - The spread of LME tin (0 - 3) contract is positive and at a relatively high level, and the spread of (3 - 15) contract is positive and basically within a reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is slightly below the 50% quantile of the past five years [7][9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Due to the weakening US job market, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased, but the expected resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State and Congo-Kinshasa, along with the continuous increase in the operating rate of domestic refined tin production capacity, may limit the upside space of Shanghai tin prices. It is recommended that investors wait and see, focusing on the support levels around 248,000 - 258,000 and the resistance levels around 274,000 - 283,000 for Shanghai tin, and the support levels around 30,000 - 32,000 and the resistance levels around 34,000 - 36,000 for London tin [2] Summary by Related Contents Market Data - On August 13, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 267,940, a decrease of 380 compared to the previous day; the trading volume was 44,115 lots, a decrease of 37,387 lots; the open interest was 24,776 lots, a decrease of 1,155 lots; the inventory was 7,332 tons, an increase of 33 tons [2] - The closing price of LME 3 - month tin futures (electronic trading) on August 13, 2025, was 33,700, a decrease of 70 compared to the previous day [2] - The total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad decreased compared to last week [1][2] Industry News - According to the data released by the Indonesian Ministry of Trade for June, the total export volume of tin ingots decreased by 18.2% to 4,465 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Exports to Singapore increased by 15.1% month - on - month to 1,063.95 tons, while exports to China decreased by 35.7% month - on - month to 953.85 tons [2] - Stellar Resources extended the exclusive period for the use of infrastructure in the Comstock mining area adjacent to the Heemskirk tin mine project by 6 months. The company is evaluating three development plans and focusing on tailings storage solutions [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply side: Tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State and Congo - Kinshasa are expected to resume production; domestic refined tin production capacity operating rate has increased; the inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased, while the social inventory in China and the inventory in the London Metal Exchange have decreased [2] - Demand side: The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips has decreased, which may lead to a decrease in the operating rate of China's tin solder production capacity in August and an increase in inventory; the production volume of China's tin - plated sheets in August may increase [2] Trading Strategy - It is recommended that investors wait and see, focusing on the support and resistance levels of Shanghai tin and London tin [2]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: August 4, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Group 2: Price and Volatility - Latest Closing Price of Tin: 264,950 yuan/ton [2] - Monthly Price Range Forecast: 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton [2] - Current Volatility: 14.36% [2] - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 26.1% [2] Group 3: Risk Management Recommendations Inventory Management - Situation: High finished - product inventory, worried about price decline [2] - Strategy: Short Shanghai Tin main futures contract (75% at around 275,000 yuan/ton) and sell call options (SN2509C275000, 25% when volatility is appropriate) [2] Raw Material Management - Situation: Low raw material inventory, worried about price increase [2] - Strategy: Long Shanghai Tin main futures contract (50% at around 230,000 yuan/ton) and sell put options (SN2509P245000, 25% when volatility is appropriate) [2] Group 4: Core Viewpoint - Tin price declined slightly during the week as expected due to limited macro - impact [3] - Myanmar's tin mine mining licenses are mostly approved, expected to resume work in late August, which is a major factor for tin fundamentals but unlikely to affect short - term supply - demand [3] - If Myanmar's resumption is below expectations again, previous negative factors may turn into short - term positives [3] - Tin price may fluctuate in the next week, and supply - side topics still have room for speculation [3] Group 5: Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - Easing of Sino - US tariff policies [4] - Semiconductor sector is still in an expansion cycle [4] - Myanmar's production resumption is below expectations [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy reversals [5] - Myanmar's tin ore flowing into China [5] - Slowdown of semiconductor sector expansion and transition from expansion to contraction cycle [5] Group 6: Futures Market Data | Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Tin Main | yuan/ton | 264,950 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous 1 | yuan/ton | 264,950 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous 3 | yuan/ton | 265,220 | 0 | 0% | | LME Tin 3M | US dollars/ton | 33,215 | 530 | 1.62% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 8.12 | 0.1 | 1.25% | [6] Group 7: Spot Market Data | Item | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Tin Ingot | yuan/ton | 264,600 | - 6,500 | - 2.4% | | 1 Tin Premium | yuan/ton | 500 | - 200 | - 28.57% | | 40% Tin Concentrate | yuan/ton | 252,600 | - 6,500 | - 2.51% | | 60% Tin Concentrate | yuan/ton | 256,600 | - 6,500 | - 2.47% | | Solder Bar (60A) Shanghai Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 172,250 | - 3,500 | - 1.99% | | Solder Bar (63A) Shanghai Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 179,750 | - 3,500 | - 1.91% | | Lead - free Solder | yuan/ton | 270,750 | - 6,500 | - 2.34% | [11] Group 8: Inventory Data | Item | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Futures Exchange Tin Warehouse Receipt (Total) | tons | 7,286 | - 143 | - 1.92% | | Shanghai Futures Exchange Tin Warehouse Receipt (Guangdong) | tons | 4,853 | 22 | 0.46% | | Shanghai Futures Exchange Tin Warehouse Receipt (Shanghai) | tons | 1,562 | - 165 | - 9.55% | | LME Tin Inventory (Total) | tons | 1,855 | 35 | 1.92% | [19] Group 9: Other Data | Item | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Tin Import Profit and Loss | yuan/ton | - 14,300.05 | 1,473.25 | - 9.34% | | 40% Tin Ore Processing Fee | yuan/ton | 12,200 | 0 | 0% | | 60% Tin Ore Processing Fee | yuan/ton | 10,050 | - 500 | - 4.74% | [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, tin prices fluctuated and declined. In terms of supply, the mining licenses in the Wa region of Myanmar have been approved, and preparations are underway, with significant recovery in tin ore supply expected in Q4. However, in the short term, raw material shortages in Yunnan are still severe, and some smelters are preparing for maintenance. In Jiangxi, some recycled tin enterprises have resumed production, but the subsequent output is difficult to increase due to the limited supply of scrap tin. In terms of demand, domestic consumption during the off - season remains poor, and downstream factories are cautious about restocking tin raw materials. Overseas, the demand for tin driven by AI computing power remains strong. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of tin ingots increased slightly this week. Overall, the short - term supply and demand are both weak, and due to the continuous resumption of production in Myanmar, it is expected that tin prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term. The short - term operating range of domestic tin prices is expected to be between 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and the operating range of LME tin prices is expected to be between 31,000 - 33,000 US dollars/ton [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply Side**: The mining licenses in the Wa region of Myanmar have been approved, and preparations are underway, with significant recovery in tin ore supply expected in Q4. In Yunnan, raw material shortages are severe, and smelter raw material inventories are generally less than 30 days, with some enterprises preparing for maintenance. In Jiangxi, some recycled tin enterprises have ended maintenance and gradually resumed production, but the supply of scrap tin is limited, and subsequent output growth is difficult [11]. - **Import and Export**: The resumption of tin ore production in Myanmar is slow, and the supply from other regions is limited. China's tin ore imports remain at a low level. In June 2025, China's tin concentrate imports were 11,910 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.44% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.08%. From January to June, the total import volume of tin concentrates was 62,130 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.41% [11]. - **Demand Side**: Consumption during the off - season is poor, and downstream factory orders are generally low. After the end of the photovoltaic rush to install, orders for photovoltaic tin bars in East China have declined, and the operating rate of some producers has decreased. The production schedules of home appliance enterprises in July also decreased significantly. In July 2025, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 29.6 million units, a 2.6% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year. Orders for consumer electronics and automotive electronics have weak growth, and market sentiment is cautious. The demand for tin in tin - plated sheets and the chemical industry is relatively stable [11]. - **Summary**: Tin supply is at a low level, and demand is also weak. In the short term, supply and demand are both weak, and due to the continuous resumption of production in Myanmar, it is expected that tin prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term. The short - term operating range of domestic tin prices is expected to be between 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and the operating range of LME tin prices is expected to be between 31,000 - 33,000 US dollars/ton [11][12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The report provides charts of the basis of Shanghai tin main contract and the LME tin premium (0 - 3), but no specific analysis content is given [18][20]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: The report provides charts of tin import and export profits, but no specific analysis content is given [24][25]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of tin ingots in China and the LME inventory charts are provided. As of August 1, 2025, the social inventory of tin ingots in major Chinese markets was 10,661 tons, an increase of 272 tons compared to last Friday [11][27]. 3.4 Cost Side - Tin ore supply is generally tight, and processing fees remain at a low level [33]. 3.5 Supply Side - **Domestic Production**: In May, affected by raw material shortages and low processing fees, the refined tin production was 14,670 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.3% [38]. - **Import and Export**: In May, the import of tin ore and concentrates was 13,448.797 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 59.83% and a month - on - month increase of 36.38%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 50,200 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 36.51%. The export of unforged non - alloy tin was 1,770 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.01% and a month - on - month increase of 8.12%. From January to May, the cumulative export was 9,584 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 38.48%. The import of unforged non - alloy tin was 2,076 tons, a year - on - year increase of 226.14% and a month - on - month increase of 84.07%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 9,508 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 30.91% [38][41]. 3.6 Demand Side - **2024 Consumption Structure**: In 2024, consumption showed a steady growth trend, with the increase mainly coming from the recovery of semiconductor consumption and the increase in photovoltaic module production. In China, solder consumption is still dominant, and the increase mainly comes from the production of photovoltaic modules and the recovery of semiconductor consumption. Overseas, the recovery of semiconductor consumption also drove the growth of tin consumption, but overall growth was slower than in China [51]. - **Semiconductor**: The year - on - year growth rate of China's semiconductor sales has slightly rebounded, and global semiconductor sales have maintained high growth [56]. - **Photovoltaic**: In the first four months of 2025, there was a phased rush to install photovoltaic in China, with significant production growth. In June, the component production schedule decreased significantly month - on - month [62]. - **Home Appliances**: According to the latest production schedule report of three major white goods, in July 2025, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 29.6 million units, a 2.6% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year [70].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - In the macro - aspect, the US core CPI in June increased 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, lower than expected for 5 consecutive months. The US Treasury Secretary said there's no need to worry about the suspension of additional tariffs deadline between the US and China, and the negotiation is in a "good state". In the fundamental aspect, the resumption progress of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is highly uncertain, and Thailand prohibits the transit of Burmese tin mines, restricting tin ore import supply. The Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages, and currently tin ore processing fees remain at a historical low. On the smelting side, Yunnan is facing raw material shortages and cost pressures, and Jiangxi's scrap recycling system is under pressure with a low operating rate. On the demand side, after the rush to install in the photovoltaic industry, the operating rate of some producers has declined, and the electronics industry is in the off - season with a strong wait - and - see attitude. Recently, tin prices have adjusted widely, with downstream buyers purchasing on dips, domestic inventory slightly decreasing, while LME de - stocking has slowed down and the premium has declined. Technically, with low positions and differences between long and short positions, the triangular oscillation is converging. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 262,000 - 276,000 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 263,960 yuan/ton, up 720 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month tin is 33,260 US dollars/ton, down 300 US dollars. The closing price difference between the August - September contracts of Shanghai Tin is - 170 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Tin is 22,748 lots, down 1,702 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is 610 lots, up 261 lots. LME tin's total inventory is 1,980 tons, down 115 tons. The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange is 7,097 tons, down 101 tons, and the warehouse receipts of Shanghai Futures Exchange are 6,777 tons, down 70 tons. LME tin's cancelled warehouse receipts are 420 tons, down 150 tons [3] 现货市场 - The SMM1 tin spot price is 263,600 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 263,570 yuan/ton, down 970 yuan. The basis of the main contract of Shanghai Tin is - 360 yuan/ton, down 1,720 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 115 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars. The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,100 tons, down 2,900 tons [3] Upstream Situation - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 254,700 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 258,700 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan. The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 171,130 yuan/ton, down 1,040 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons. The export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3] Industry News - The US CPI in June increased 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, slightly exceeding the expected 2.6%, with a previous value of 2.4%; the month - on - month increase was 0.3%, in line with expectations, and the increase was mainly due to rising energy prices. The EU Trade Commissioner said that although the two - sides' negotiation is quite close on the principle text, there are still huge differences in some key areas. The Central Urban Work Conference was held in Beijing, indicating that China's urbanization is shifting from a rapid growth stage to a stable development stage, and urban development is shifting from a large - scale incremental expansion stage to a stage mainly focused on improving the quality and efficiency of the stock [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, along with the increasing operating rate of domestic refined tin production capacity, but the decrease in refined tin inventories both at home and abroad compared to last week, may lead to an adjustment in Shanghai tin prices. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels [3]. - The positive basis and negative monthly spread of Shanghai tin, as well as the negative (0 - 3) and positive (3 - 15) contract spreads of LME tin, are within reasonable ranges. Due to various factors, it is suggested to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [6][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Side - On July 11, Wa State, Myanmar, decided that the first batch of 40 - 50 mines would resume production after paying fees (with an initial incremental output of no more than 10,000 metal tons and a transmission period of 2 - 3 months, totaling 108 mines). Alphamin Resources announced the phased resumption of the Bisie tin mine in North Kivu Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo, on April 9 (with production volumes of 17,300 and 20,000 tons in 2024 and 2025 respectively). These factors may cause the domestic tin ore production (import) volume in July to decrease (increase) month - on - month. Coupled with the decline in domestic tin concentrate processing fees, it may indicate a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [3][22]. - China's recycled tin production in July may increase month - on - month [23][25]. - The operating rates of refined tin production capacity in Jiangxi and China (Yunnan) increased (remained flat) compared to last week; China's refined tin production (inventory) volume in July increased (decreased) month - on - month [3][29]. - Indonesia's Ministry of Finance's mining license approval is affected by a corruption investigation and may reduce long - term export quotas, causing the export volume in July to decrease month - on - month. China's refined tin import (export) volume in July may increase (decrease) month - on - month [3][33]. Demand Side - The operating rate (inventory) of China's tin solder production capacity in July may increase (increase) month - on - month [3][36]. - China's solder strip import (export) volume in July may increase (increase) month - on - month [3][38][40]. - China's tinplate production (import, export) volume in July may increase (decrease, decrease) month - on - month [3][44]. Inventory - The social inventory of China's refined tin decreased compared to last week. The inventories of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Chinese tin ingot social inventory, and LME refined tin also decreased compared to last week [12][14]. Price and Spread - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and within a reasonable range, and the monthly spread is negative and within a reasonable range. The (0 - 3) contract spread of LME tin is negative and within a reasonable range, while the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive and within a reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years [6][11]. Investment Strategy - It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to the support level around 248,000 - 260,000 and the resistance level around 274,000 - 280,000 for Shanghai tin, and the support level around 30,000 - 32,000 and the resistance level around 34,000 - 36,000 for London tin [3]. - It is suggested to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities regarding the basis and monthly spread of Shanghai tin, as well as the (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads of LME tin [6][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The resumption progress of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar has great uncertainty, and Thailand prohibits Myanmar from transporting tin ore through its territory, restricting the supply of tin ore imports. The Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages, and currently, the tin ore processing fee remains at a historically low level. On the smelting side, the Yunnan production area is facing a shortage of raw materials and cost pressures, while the waste recycling system in the Jiangxi production area is under pressure, and the operating rate remains at a low level. On the demand side, after the rush to install in the photovoltaic industry ended, the operating rate of some producers decreased, and the electronics industry entered the off - season with a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Recently, the tin price has been widely adjusted, with downstream buyers purchasing on dips, the domestic inventory has decreased slightly, and the overseas inventory continues to decline with an increase in LME cancelled warrants. Technically, there is a divergence between long and short positions at a low position in holdings, and the price is adjusted in a wide range. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 262,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 266,740 yuan/ton, up 3,850 yuan/ton; the closing price of the LME 3 - month tin is 33,250 US dollars/ton, down 70 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the August - September contract of Shanghai tin is - 20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The main contract holding volume of Shanghai tin is 26,471 lots, down 162 lots. The net holding of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is 1,701 lots, up 611 lots. The total inventory of LME tin is 2,060 tons, up 75 tons, and the cancelled warrants of LME tin is 615 tons, up 50 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,198 tons, up 243 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt of tin is 6,685 tons, down 53 tons. The SMM 1 tin spot price is 265,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 264,930 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin is - 1,740 yuan/ton, down 3,850 yuan/ton, and the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 12 US dollars/ton, up 32 US dollars/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 255,300 yuan/ton, down 1,700 yuan/ton; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 259,300 yuan/ton, down 1,700 yuan/ton. The average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fee is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 172,130 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 0.1445 million tons; the export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - China's CPI in June increased by 0.1% year - on - year, the core CPI reached a 14 - month high, and the year - on - year decline of PPI widened to 3.6%. Trump announced that starting from August 1, the US will impose a 20% tariff on Philippine products, a 25% tariff on Brunei and Moldova, and a 30% tariff on Algeria, Iraq, Libya, and Sri Lanka. The new tariff on Brazil announced by Trump far exceeds the previous one. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China in June increased by 26.7% year - on - year [3]

Report Overview - Report Name: Shanghai Tin Industry Daily Report 2025 - 07 - 02 [2] - Analyst: Wang Fuhui, Futures Practitioner Qualification Number F03123381, Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number Z0019878 [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The resumption progress of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State has great uncertainty, and Thailand has banned the transit of Burmese tin ore, restricting tin ore import supply. The Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in phases, and currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historical lows. On the smelting side, Yunnan's production area faces a combination of raw material shortages and cost pressures, while Jiangxi's production area has a stressed scrap recycling system, with a low operating rate. On the demand side, after the rush to install photovoltaic equipment, the operating rate of some producers has declined, and the electronics industry has entered a slack season with a strong wait - and - see attitude. Recently, tin prices have corrected, the spot premium has been lowered to 400 yuan/ton, trading is sluggish, and most downstream enterprises are adopting a wait - and - see attitude towards current prices. Domestic inventories have increased slightly, but overseas inventories continue to decline, LME cancelled warrants have increased, the premium has risen, and LME tin strongly drives domestic prices. Technically, positions are stable, and both long and short sides are cautious. It is recommended to pay attention to the adjustment at the 270,000 yuan mark and temporarily adopt a wait - and - see approach, with a reference range of 266,000 - 272,000 yuan [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures主力合约收盘价:沪锡 was 268,520 yuan/ton, down 1,320 yuan; LME 3 - month tin was 33,625 US dollars/ton, down 125 US dollars. The 8 - 9 - month contract收盘价:沪锡 was down 130 yuan, with a decline of 160 yuan. The主力合约持仓量:沪锡 was 31,365 lots, down 129 lots. The期货前20名净持仓:沪锡 was - 658 lots, down 733 lots. LME tin total inventory was 2,220 tons, up 45 tons. Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory was 6,955 tons, down 10 tons. LME tin cancelled warrants were 735 tons, up 85 tons. Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse receipts were 6,888 tons, up 122 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - SMM1 tin现货价格 was 268,500 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan; Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin现货价 was 268,890 yuan/ton, up 2,100 yuan. The沪锡主力合约基差 was - 20 yuan/ton, up 3,320 yuan. LME tin升贴水(0 - 3) was - 48.99 US dollars/ton, down 176.49 US dollars [3]. 3.3上游情况 - The进口数量 of tin ore and concentrates was 12,100 tons, down 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 257,000 yuan/ton, up 5,700 yuan; the processing fee was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate was 261,000 yuan/ton, up 5,700 yuan; the processing fee was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The当月值 of refined tin production was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The进口数量 of refined tin was 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu was 174,350 yuan/ton, up 1,150 yuan. The累计 output of tin - plated sheets (strips) was 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons. The出口数量 of tin - plated sheets was 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3]. 3.6行业消息 - Powell did not rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, saying that a rate cut would have occurred if not for tariffs, and tariffs are expected to affect inflation. The US ISM manufacturing PMI in June was 49, higher than the expected 48.8 and the previous value of 48.5. Indicators for measuring raw material payment prices showed signs of a slight acceleration in inflation. Import and export indicators were still in a contraction state, but the decline rate slowed down. The order backlog index had the largest decline in a year. The eurozone manufacturing industry showed signs of stabilization in June, with the PMI rising to 49.5, the highest level since August 2022, and output growth for the fourth consecutive month. New orders stabilized in June, ending a 37 - month decline cycle, and export orders also stopped falling and stabilized. Facing the July 9 tariff restart deadline, the Trump administration is adjusting its trade negotiation strategy, shifting from seeking a comprehensive reciprocal agreement to a more limited phased agreement to avoid re - imposing severe tariffs on some countries [3].

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing a significant price adjustment due to a combination of weak demand and supply disruptions, with the price of tin futures closing at 260,560 yuan/ton, down 1.2% [1] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Supply concerns have shifted focus to the resumption of tin mining in Myanmar's Wa region, with current production only reaching 50% of planned capacity [1] - Domestic tin supply remains tight, with smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi operating at low capacity due to a shortage of tin concentrate [1] - The processing fee for 40% grade tin concentrate in Yunnan has dropped to historical lows, leading some companies to reduce production or undergo maintenance [1] Group 2: Demand Trends - Downstream demand is weak, with limited acceptance of high prices, resulting in transactions primarily driven by immediate needs [1] - The automotive electronics sector benefits from increased penetration of new energy vehicles, but overall procurement remains cautious, characterized by "small batches and multiple batches" [1] - Seasonal characteristics are evident, with a decline in orders for photovoltaic components and consumer electronics, further suppressing tin price potential [1][2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The short-term outlook indicates a continuation of weak supply and demand, with a decline in orders from the end market during the off-season [2] - Domestic smelters are facing raw material shortages, leading to a decrease in operating rates and low processing fees for tin concentrate [2] - Current inventory levels are low, providing some support for prices, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that this week, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated and declined, with a weekly decline of 1.19% and an amplitude of 2.72%. In the future, the Fed will maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged, and the resumption of production of tin mines in Myanmar and Congo is expected to increase supply. However, the shortage of raw materials and cost pressures in the smelting end, and the seasonal off - season in the consumer electronics demand end coexist. Although some downstream enterprises are replenishing stocks, overall, it is expected that the tin price will fluctuate and adjust. Technically, the position is low, and both long and short sides are cautious, facing the resistance of MA60, with support at 257,000. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 257,000 - 264,000 [5]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated and declined, with a weekly decline of 1.19% and an amplitude of 2.72%. The closing price of the main contract was 260,560 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroscopically, the Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50%. Fundamentally, the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar and Congo is expected to increase supply, but the actual resumption progress may be less than expected. The smelting end is facing shortages of raw materials and cost pressures. The consumer electronics demand is in the off - season, but some downstream enterprises are replenishing stocks. Technically, the position is low, facing the resistance of MA60, with support at 257,000 [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 257,000 - 264,000 [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: As of June 20, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 260,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,740 yuan/ton from June 13, a decline of 1.04%. As of June 19, 2025, the closing price of LME tin was 32,100 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 600 US dollars/ton from June 13, a decline of 1.83%. The spot premium has been adjusted downward [8]. - **Ratio**: As of June 20, 2025, the current ratio of the prices of Shanghai tin and Shanghai nickel was 2.2, an increase of 0.01 from June 13. As of June 19, 2025, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 8.2, an increase of 0.09 from June 12 [15]. - **Position**: As of June 20, 2025, the position of Shanghai tin was 47,762 lots, a decrease of 3,729 lots from June 13, a decline of 7.24%. The net position of the top 20 was 3,887 lots, a decrease of 610 lots from June 16 [16][17]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Supply Side - **Tin Ore Import and Refined Tin Production**: In April 2025, the monthly import of tin ore and concentrates was 9,861.25 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.93%. From January to April, the import of tin ore and concentrates was 36,773.07 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 47.92%. In April 2025, the refined tin production was - 0.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01%. From January to April, the cumulative refined tin production was 5.98 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% [22][23]. - **Tin Ore Processing Fee**: On June 13, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,000 yuan/ton from June 6, a decline of 23.53%. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,000 yuan/ton from June 6, a decline of 16% [27]. - **Refined Tin Import and Export**: As of June 20, 2025, the profit and loss of tin import was 1,416.37 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,696.89 yuan/ton from June 13. In May 2025, the import of refined tin was 2,076.34 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 84.07% and a year - on - year increase of 226.14%. From January to April, the cumulative import of refined tin was 8,582.51 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.5%. In May 2025, the export of refined tin was 1,769.65 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.12% and a year - on - year increase of 18.01%. From January to April, the cumulative export of refined tin was 7,918.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 45.22% [31][32]. - **Inventory**: As of June 20, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 2,175 tons, a decrease of 85 tons from June 13, a decline of 3.76%. The total tin inventory in Shanghai Futures Exchange was 6,965 tons, a decrease of 142 tons from last week, a decline of 2%. The tin futures inventory was 6,502 tons, a decrease of 272 tons from June 13, a decline of 4.02% [39]. Demand Side - **Philadelphia Semiconductor Index**: On June 18, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 5,251.02, an increase of 18.49 from June 11, an increase of 0.35%. From January to May 2025, the integrated circuit production was 193.46 billion pieces, an increase of 23.18 billion pieces from the same period last year, an increase of 13.61% [42][43]. - **Tin - Plated Sheet Export**: As of April 2025, the tin - plated sheet production was 100,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from March 2025, a decline of 9.09%. As of May 2025, the tin - plated sheet export volume was 173,578.75 tons, an increase of 27,066.23 tons from April, an increase of 18.47% [49].