全球最大 黄金ETF--SPDR Gold Trust持仓较上日增加12.02吨，当前持仓量为1064.56吨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for gold prices remains optimistic despite recent fluctuations, driven by expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical risks [1][5]. Market Performance - Gold prices opened at $4084.59 per ounce, hitting a weekly low of $3997.78 before reaching a high of $4132.38, ultimately closing at $4064.80, reflecting a weekly range of $134.6 and a decline of $19.79 or 0.48% [3]. - The market is currently experiencing a consolidation phase, with expectations of a bullish trend in the longer term, despite short-term resistance [3][5]. Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve has not indicated an end to the easing cycle, with many officials suggesting further policy loosening over time, which supports the case for future rate cuts [5]. - Recent strong employment data and mixed signals from Fed officials have tempered immediate rate cut expectations, but the overall sentiment remains that a rate cut in early next year is likely [5][9]. Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions and the potential for a global rate cut cycle in 2026 are providing strong support for gold prices [5]. - The absence of employment data due to government shutdowns raises concerns about decision-making and unemployment rates, further underpinning gold's appeal as a safe haven [5]. Technical Analysis - On a weekly basis, gold prices closed above the 10-week moving average, indicating potential for further gains, with the 10-week moving average serving as a key support level [7]. - The current price action suggests a consolidation within a triangular pattern, with key resistance at $4230 and support levels at $3930 and $4045 [9].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is expected to maintain a period of fluctuation and adjustment in the short term due to mixed signals from the non-farm employment data and ongoing hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials [1][5][6]. Market Performance - On November 20, gold opened at $4077.91 per ounce, reached a high of $4109.92, and then fell to a low of $4038.65 before closing at $4077.22, with a daily fluctuation of $71.27 [3]. - The market anticipates mixed economic data releases, including the U.S. November PMI and consumer confidence index, which may continue to influence gold prices [3]. Economic Indicators - The strong performance of the September non-farm employment data and the Federal Reserve officials' reluctance to rush into rate cuts have reduced the likelihood of a December rate cut, but this could also be seen as a temporary alleviation of negative factors for gold prices [5]. - Long-term, the Federal Reserve is expected to continue easing policies, indicating that the rate cut cycle remains in play, supported by ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases [6]. Technical Analysis - On a weekly basis, gold prices are currently supported by the 10-week moving average, suggesting potential for future strength if this support holds [8]. - The daily chart indicates that gold is in a triangular consolidation pattern, with key resistance at $4230 and support at $3930, guiding trading strategies [9]. Price Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4050 and $4030, while resistance levels are at $4105 and $4130 [10].

Core Points - The December 2025 gold futures price closed at $4,126.90 per ounce on October 24, with a decline of 0.45% and a weekly drop of 2.05% [1] - Both gold and silver prices experienced significant declines, with high volatility persisting in the market [1] - Risk appetite has improved this week, with U.S. stock indices slightly below historical highs, negatively impacting safe-haven precious metals [1] - Following recent record highs, gold has faced substantial selling pressure, with prices dropping over 5% at the beginning of the week, marking the largest mid-week decline in years [1] - Gold ETF holdings have also seen a significant reduction, recording the largest single-day drop in five months [1] - Despite recent declines, gold prices have increased approximately 55% year-to-date, supported by ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical risks [1] - The U.S. Labor Department reported a 3% year-over-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September, up from 2.9% in August [1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, also rose by 3% year-over-year in September [1] - Recent price trends indicate a potential period of volatility, which may drive speculation in the futures market [1] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised margin requirements for gold futures by 5.5% and for silver futures by 8.5% on October 17 [1] - Analysts believe that the substantial gains followed by a delayed correction represent a healthy and inevitable tactical retreat [1] Silver Market - The December silver futures price closed at $48.41 per ounce, with a decline of 0.60% and a weekly drop of 3.38% [2]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices continue to rise, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to global trade tensions [1] Group 1: Gold Price Movements - London spot gold prices reached a new high of $4200.23 per ounce during trading [1] - As of 15:10 Beijing time, London spot gold was reported at $4200.14 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.4% [1] - New York commodity exchange's December gold futures were trading above $4200 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.32% [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Geopolitical and economic uncertainties, expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and a surge in gold purchases by central banks of major economies have contributed to the rise in international gold prices [1] - The increase in gold ETF holdings has also played a significant role in driving up gold prices, which have surged over 55% this year [1] Group 3: Future Price Predictions - Analysts from Bank of America and Société Générale predict that gold prices could reach $5000 per ounce by 2026 [1] - Standard Chartered has raised its average gold price forecast for next year to $4488 per ounce [1]

Core Insights - As of October 8, the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased its holdings by 1.43 tons, bringing the total holdings to 1014.58 tons [1] Group 1 - The SPDR Gold Trust is currently the largest gold ETF globally [1] - The increase in holdings indicates a growing interest in gold as an investment [1] - The current total holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust stand at 1014.58 tons, reflecting significant asset accumulation [1]

Core Viewpoint - As of September 15, the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased its holdings by 2.01 tons, bringing the total holdings to 976.81 tons [1] Group 1 - SPDR Gold Trust is recognized as the largest gold ETF globally [1] - The increase in holdings indicates a positive trend in investor interest in gold [1] - Current total holdings of SPDR Gold Trust stand at 976.81 tons [1]

Group 1 - As of September 12, the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, saw a decrease in holdings by 3.15 tons [1] - The current holding amount for SPDR Gold Trust is 974.80 tons [1]

Core Insights - As of September 2, the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, saw a significant increase in holdings by 12.88 tons, marking the largest increase since March 22 [1] - The current holdings amount to 990.56 tons, reaching the highest level since August 2022 [1]

Core Insights - The report provides an update on the holdings of gold ETFs as of August 1, 2025, indicating fluctuations in positions over the preceding days [1][4]. Group 1: ETF Holdings Data - On July 10, 2025, there was an increase of 1.44 tons in gold ETF holdings [3]. - On July 9, 2025, holdings increased by 0.86 tons [3]. - On July 8, 2025, there was a decrease of 1.15 tons [3]. - On July 2, 2025, holdings decreased by 4.3 tons [3]. - On July 1, 2025, there was a decrease of 3 tons [3]. Group 2: Data Update Schedule - The ETF holdings data is updated between Tuesday and Saturday at approximately 5:30 AM Beijing time, reflecting the previous day's holdings [4].