张尧浠：美联储降息前景仍在、金价震荡调整待走强 黄金市场上周：国际黄金偏触底回升式震荡收跌，当周围绕着美联储对于12月降息预期升温于下降等抉择，以及就业数据等好坏参半中震荡调整，但仍处 于5-10周均线上方，暗示后市仍有在再度走强的前景预期，但短期则偏向继续维持横盘震荡调整波动。 具体走势上，金价自周初开于4084.59美元/盎司，连续走出触底回升形态，并于周二录得当周低点3997.78美元，虽受到买盘支撑，一度转强触及当周高点 4132.38美元，但动力未能持稳，而再度走低震荡调整，于周五收于4064.80美元，周振幅134.6美元，收跌19.79美元，跌幅0.48%。 历史也告诉我们，每一次在降息周期中的回调，最终都成了上车的最好机会。 展望本周周一(11月24日)：国际黄金开盘窄幅波动，早盘延续上周五回升之力，以及 美联储"三把手"鸽派发言令12月降息预期有所回暖，有所走强，但仍 面临阻力压制，和其他众多美联储官员对于12月降息泼冷水的打压。 另外，美元指数早盘走强反弹，也对其金价多头产生一定限制，整体来看，上周公布的9月非农就业数据的表现强劲，以及多位美联储官员的不急于降 息，削弱了12月降息概率，但 ...

张尧浠：9月非农好坏参半、金价短期将维持震荡调整 上交易日周四(11月20日)：国际黄金震荡十字收平，多空都未能走出方向，日内虽受到买盘支撑，以及喜忧参半的非农就业数据未打消市场对美联储12月 降息的质疑，美元指数维持在100关口上方高位震荡，金价一度再度走强，但由于美联储多位鹰派官员继续发声，泽连斯基已收到美和平计划草案等，又 打压金价回落走低，那么短期金价将继续维持震荡调整为主。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4077.91美元/盎司，先行走强录得日内高点4109.92美元，之后遇阻回落，于亚盘尾录得日内低点4038.65美元，之后又反弹 回升，并继续陷入来回过山车式震荡，最终收平于4077.22美元，日振幅71.27美元，收跌0.69美元。 展望今日周五(11月21日)：国际黄金开盘先行窄幅波动，有所止跌，美元指数早盘偏弱对其产生一定支撑，同时对于昨日的利空压力有所消化，但短期也 未能有进一步的利好支撑，故此将继续维持震荡波动为主。 日内将可关注美国11月标普全球制造业和服务业PMI初值、美国11月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值、美国11月一年期通胀率预期终值等数据，市场预期 整体好坏参半，继续对金价产生震荡 ...

Core Points - The December 2025 gold futures price closed at $4,126.90 per ounce on October 24, with a decline of 0.45% and a weekly drop of 2.05% [1] - Both gold and silver prices experienced significant declines, with high volatility persisting in the market [1] - Risk appetite has improved this week, with U.S. stock indices slightly below historical highs, negatively impacting safe-haven precious metals [1] - Following recent record highs, gold has faced substantial selling pressure, with prices dropping over 5% at the beginning of the week, marking the largest mid-week decline in years [1] - Gold ETF holdings have also seen a significant reduction, recording the largest single-day drop in five months [1] - Despite recent declines, gold prices have increased approximately 55% year-to-date, supported by ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical risks [1] - The U.S. Labor Department reported a 3% year-over-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September, up from 2.9% in August [1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, also rose by 3% year-over-year in September [1] - Recent price trends indicate a potential period of volatility, which may drive speculation in the futures market [1] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised margin requirements for gold futures by 5.5% and for silver futures by 8.5% on October 17 [1] - Analysts believe that the substantial gains followed by a delayed correction represent a healthy and inevitable tactical retreat [1] Silver Market - The December silver futures price closed at $48.41 per ounce, with a decline of 0.60% and a weekly drop of 3.38% [2]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices continue to rise, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to global trade tensions [1] Group 1: Gold Price Movements - London spot gold prices reached a new high of $4200.23 per ounce during trading [1] - As of 15:10 Beijing time, London spot gold was reported at $4200.14 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.4% [1] - New York commodity exchange's December gold futures were trading above $4200 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.32% [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Geopolitical and economic uncertainties, expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and a surge in gold purchases by central banks of major economies have contributed to the rise in international gold prices [1] - The increase in gold ETF holdings has also played a significant role in driving up gold prices, which have surged over 55% this year [1] Group 3: Future Price Predictions - Analysts from Bank of America and Société Générale predict that gold prices could reach $5000 per ounce by 2026 [1] - Standard Chartered has raised its average gold price forecast for next year to $4488 per ounce [1]

Core Insights - As of October 8, the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased its holdings by 1.43 tons, bringing the total holdings to 1014.58 tons [1] Group 1 - The SPDR Gold Trust is currently the largest gold ETF globally [1] - The increase in holdings indicates a growing interest in gold as an investment [1] - The current total holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust stand at 1014.58 tons, reflecting significant asset accumulation [1]

Core Viewpoint - As of September 15, the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased its holdings by 2.01 tons, bringing the total holdings to 976.81 tons [1] Group 1 - SPDR Gold Trust is recognized as the largest gold ETF globally [1] - The increase in holdings indicates a positive trend in investor interest in gold [1] - Current total holdings of SPDR Gold Trust stand at 976.81 tons [1]

Group 1 - As of September 12, the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, saw a decrease in holdings by 3.15 tons [1] - The current holding amount for SPDR Gold Trust is 974.80 tons [1]

Core Insights - As of September 2, the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, saw a significant increase in holdings by 12.88 tons, marking the largest increase since March 22 [1] - The current holdings amount to 990.56 tons, reaching the highest level since August 2022 [1]

Core Insights - The report provides an update on the holdings of gold ETFs as of August 1, 2025, indicating fluctuations in positions over the preceding days [1][4]. Group 1: ETF Holdings Data - On July 10, 2025, there was an increase of 1.44 tons in gold ETF holdings [3]. - On July 9, 2025, holdings increased by 0.86 tons [3]. - On July 8, 2025, there was a decrease of 1.15 tons [3]. - On July 2, 2025, holdings decreased by 4.3 tons [3]. - On July 1, 2025, there was a decrease of 3 tons [3]. Group 2: Data Update Schedule - The ETF holdings data is updated between Tuesday and Saturday at approximately 5:30 AM Beijing time, reflecting the previous day's holdings [4].

Core Insights - The report provides an update on the holdings of gold ETFs as of July 30, 2025, indicating fluctuations in positions over the preceding days [1]. Group 1: ETF Holdings Data - On July 8, 2025, there was a decrease of 1.15 tons in gold ETF holdings [3]. - On July 2, 2025, the holdings decreased by 0.57 tons [3]. - On July 1, 2025, there was a notable reduction of 4.3 tons [3]. - On June 30, 2025, the holdings increased by 1.43 tons [3]. - On June 27, 2025, there were no changes in the holdings [3]. Group 2: Data Update Timing - The ETF holdings data is updated between Tuesday and Saturday at approximately 5:30 AM Beijing time, reflecting the previous day's positions [4].