Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The black commodity futures market has declined across the board. The five major steel products have seen an increase in inventory and a decrease in apparent demand. The rapid decline of coking coal has led to a decrease in speculative demand, and the short - term futures market still faces correction pressure. However, due to the unproven "anti - involution" expectation and the "steady growth" expectation, along with the impact of coal mine over - production inspections, the steel demand in the off - season is acceptable, and the downward adjustment space of the futures market may be limited [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - On August 1st, black commodity futures all turned down. The closing prices of rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore were 3,203 yuan/ton, 3,401 yuan/ton, and 783 yuan/ton respectively. The coking coal and coke futures continued to decline significantly, with the decline of coking coal main contract exceeding 7%, and the coking coal main contract switched to 2601 [1] Market Analysis - The Politburo meeting did not release signals of incremental fiscal policies, emphasizing the use of previous policy packages and without more support for the real estate market. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected and downplayed the guidance of a September rate cut, leading to adjustments in risk - asset prices. In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [1] - The supply - demand performance of steel is poor. The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 153,900 tons to 13.5189 million tons, ending a four - week decline. The terminal demand in the off - season is weak, mainly due to the decline in real estate investment and construction. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills increased to 65.37%, the blast furnace operating rate remained flat at 83.46%, and the average daily pig iron output decreased by 15,200 tons to 2.4071 million tons. The electric arc furnace steel mills increased production and resumed production, with the operating rate and capacity utilization reaching an eight - week high [1] Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Adopt a short - term shock strategy and pay attention to the difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coils: Adopt a short - term high - level consolidation strategy and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1] Summary - Overall, the inventory of the five major steel products has increased, the apparent demand has decreased, and with the rapid decline of coking coal, the short - term futures market faces correction pressure. But due to certain expectations and the actual situation, the downward adjustment space of the futures market may be limited [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The futures prices of coking coal and coke declined due to market sentiment fluctuations, but the spot market maintained low inventories and strong rigid demand, with price support still in place. The supply - demand of coking coal and coke remained slightly tight, and the fifth round of price increase for coke started. There was a policy bottom, and buying opportunities after price corrections could be considered [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - On July 31, all black - series commodity futures turned down. The closing price of rebar was 3205 yuan/ton, down 4.19%; the hot - rolled coil futures closed at 3390 yuan/ton, down 3.56%; the iron ore futures closed at 779 yuan/ton; coking coal and coke declined, with coking coal hitting the daily limit down [1] Market Analysis - The decline in the futures market cooled the previous positive sentiment. Some traders sold to realize profits, and the increase in auctions narrowed. Extreme rain in coal - producing areas led to a temporary reduction in coal supply. Coking coal demand remained strong due to high downstream coke - enterprise operating rates and high pig - iron production. Coal mine pre - sales would last until mid - August. The inventory of washed coal plants and coking coal mines reached low levels. After the fourth round of price increases for coke, the profits of coke enterprises continued to shrink, some reduced production, and supply tightened. Steel mills and traders had good procurement enthusiasm, and coke inventories at coking plants were low. The coking industry decided to raise coke prices starting from July 31 [1] Investment Suggestions - For iron ore, pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory levels and avoid chasing high prices. For rebar, take a short - term oscillatory approach and focus on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar. For hot - rolled coil, take a short - term high - level consolidation approach and focus on supply - demand changes. For coking coal and coke, pay attention to the oscillatory market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1]

-1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-14 01-28 02-11 02-25 03-10 03-24 04-07 04-21 05-05 05-19 06-02 06-16 06-30 07-14 07-28 08-11 08-25 09-08 09-22 10-06 10-20 11-03 11-17 12-01 12-15 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 螺纹--基差 | | 黑色产业数据每日监测（7.30） | | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主力合约收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 现货价格 基差 | | 螺纹 | 3315 14 0.42% 3450 135 | | 热卷 | 3483 28 0.81% 3450 -33 | | 铁矿 | 789 -3.5 -0.44% 775 -14 | | 焦煤 | 1117 29.5 2.71% 980 -137 | | 焦炭 | 1676.5 64.5 4.00% 1359 -317.5 | | | 市场概况 | | | 今日黑色系商品期货有涨有跌。螺纹收于3315元/吨，上涨0.42%；热卷主力合 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall performance of black commodity futures today was average. The supply - side favorable sentiment pushed up the price center of the steel futures market this week, but downstream demand may be limited due to weather, and some steel mills have the intention to cut production. The coking coal and coke markets have complex supply - demand situations, and the market faces a pattern of strong expectations and weak reality. It is expected that the coking coal futures will fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Overview - The closing price of rebar was 3072 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3201 yuan/ton, up 0.25%; the main contract of iron ore closed at 732.5 yuan/ton; the prices of coking coal and coke fell slightly [1] Market Analysis - Steel futures broke through the narrow - range shock this week, with the price center rising nearly 100 points due to supply - side sentiment. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills dropped to 2.4085 million tons, the lowest since late April but still at a high level. Downstream demand may be limited in July and August, and steel mills will mainly produce according to sales [1] - After four rounds of coke price cuts, raw coal prices rose, squeezing coke enterprise profits. The profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants dropped to - 52 yuan/ton. Some coking plants cut production, and the inventory of independent coking plants and ports decreased, while steel mill inventory increased. Some coking plants intend to raise prices, and the follow - up depends on pig iron output and cost [1] - The total inventory of coking coal increased by 0.93% to 257.209 million tons this week. The inventory structure improved, with coal mines and coal - washing plants reducing inventory, and ports and steel mills increasing inventory. The prices of various coking coal types rose by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal electronic auction improved, but the third - quarter long - term contract price is expected to drop, and increased imports will impact the supply side [1] Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Investors should take a shock - based approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Investors should take a high - level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the shock market after the price stabilizes and the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1] Summary - The supply - demand structure has not reached a substantial turning point, and short - term structural relief may not support the continuous rise of futures prices. The market faces a pattern of strong expectations and weak reality, and the coking coal futures are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1]

-1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 焦煤--基差 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-14 01-28 02-11 02-25 03-10 03-24 04-07 04-21 05-05 05-19 06-02 06-16 06-30 07-14 07-28 08-11 08-25 09-08 09-22 10-06 10-20 11-03 11-17 12-01 12-15 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 焦炭--基差 | | 黑色产业数据每日监测（7.02） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The black commodity futures market was generally weak today. The supply of coking coal decreased due to safety inspections and environmental protection pressures, while the downstream procurement remained cautious. The overall coking coal inventory was still high, and the supply - demand structure only had a short - term structural relief. The upward space and sustainability of coal prices were restricted [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3003 yuan/ton, down 0.20%; the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3136 yuan/ton, up 0.06%; the iron ore main contract closed at 708.5 yuan/ton; both coking coal and coke closed down, with coking coal down more than 3% [1] Market Analysis - In Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, production cuts occurred due to safety inspections, environmental protection pressures, and inventory issues. The domestic coking coal supply decreased. The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines decreased by 2% week - on - week to 82.5%. The coking coal inventory of mines decreased by 7.23% week - on - week to 463.1 million tons. The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants decreased by 2.23% to 59.10%, and the inventory of raw coal and clean coal both decreased. Russian coal imports decreased by about 600,000 tons since May, and the customs at three China - Mongolia ports will be closed for 5 days. The downstream procurement of coke and coking coal remained cautious, and the overall coking coal inventory was high. After the end of the safety production month in June, some coal mines resumed production, and the reduction of the long - term contract price of Mongolian coal in the third quarter was almost certain, which would further impact the supply side [1] Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices. Rebar: Investors are advised to take a volatile approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. Hot - rolled coils: Investors are advised to take a high - level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes. Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength relationship between the two [1] Summary - Before seeing the stable recovery of production data, be vigilant against the impact of sentiment and maintain the idea of lightly shorting on rebounds [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall black commodity futures market rose today, with double coking coal closing down [1]. - The domestic supply of coking coal has declined, while the demand has increased, and the comprehensive inventory of coking coal has reached its lowest level since last May Day holiday [1]. - Under the premium structure of the main contract, the risk of chasing long positions is relatively high, and attention should be paid to the supply pressure after the resumption of environmentally - friendly production cuts in July and the sustainability of high hot - metal production in the off - season [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The black commodity futures market rose overall. The closing prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore were 2997 yuan/ton, 3123 yuan/ton, and 715.5 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 0.23%, 0.13%, and 0.21%. Double coking coal closed down [1]. Market Analysis Supply - Some coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have reduced production due to safety inspections, environmental protection pressure, and inventory issues. The utilization rate of approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines decreased by 2% week - on - week to 82.5%, and the inventory of coking coal in mines decreased by 7.23% week - on - week to 463.1 million tons. The operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants decreased by 2.23% to 59.10%, and both raw coal and clean coal inventories showed a downward trend. Russian coal imports have decreased by about 600,000 tons month - on - month since May, and the three China - Mongolia ports will be closed for 5 days [1]. Demand - The trading atmosphere in the coking coal market has warmed up, with increased procurement inquiries and slightly higher transaction prices of some low - priced coal types. There is a phased replenishment demand at the end of the month, and the daily average output of blast furnace hot - metal in steel mills has increased to 2.4229 million tons. The inventories of independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills have increased by 1.66% and 0.8% respectively [1]. Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - Rebar: Adopt a volatile trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: Adopt a high - level consolidation trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - Double coking coal: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength relationship between the two [1].

-1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 焦煤--基差 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-14 01-28 02-11 02-25 03-10 03-24 04-07 04-21 05-05 05-19 06-02 06-16 06-30 07-14 07-28 08-11 08-25 09-08 09-22 10-06 10-20 11-03 11-17 12-01 12-15 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 螺纹--基差 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-0 ...

-1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-14 01-28 02-11 02-25 03-10 03-24 04-07 04-21 05-05 05-19 06-02 06-16 06-30 07-14 07-28 08-11 08-25 09-08 09-22 10-06 10-20 11-03 11-17 12-01 12-15 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 螺纹--基差 | | 黑色产业数据每日监测（6.23） | | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主力合约收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 现货价格 基差 | | 螺纹 | 2995 1 0.03% 3070 75 | | 热卷 | 3112 -5 -0.16% 3190 78 | | 铁矿 | 706 3.5 0.50% 713 7 | | 焦煤 | 807 10 1.25% 880 73 | | 焦炭 | 1385 -3 -0.22% 1245 -140 | | | 市场概况 | | | 今日黑色系商品期货整体企稳涨跌不一。螺纹收于2995元/吨，上涨0.03%； | | | 热卷主力合约收于311 ...

| | 黑色产业数据每日监测（6.19） | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主力合约收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 现货价格 | 基差 | | 螺纹 | 2986 | 4 | 0.13% | 3120 | 134 | | 热卷 | 3103 | 4 | 0.13% | 3200 | 97 | | 铁矿 | 698 | 3 | 0.43% | 715 | 17 | | 焦煤 | 790.5 | -1 | -0.13% | 880 | 89.5 | | 焦炭 | 1374 | -1.5 | -0.11% | 1245 | -129 | | | 市场概况 | | | | | | | 今日黑色系商品期货整体企稳。螺纹收于2986元/吨，上涨0.13%；热卷主力 | | | | | | | 合约收于3103元/吨，上涨0.13%；铁矿今日主力合约收于698元/吨；双焦今 | | | | | | | 天焦炭小幅收跌。 | | | | | | | 市场分析 | | | | | | | 供应方面，由于煤炭价格持续下跌，247家钢厂盈利率微降至58. ...