| | | | 利多显性化，市场维持高位震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 第一部分 | 铜市场综述 2 | | 【行情回顾】 | 2 | | | 【市场展望】 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | 2 | | 第一部分 | 铜市场综述 3 | | 一、 | 行情回顾 3 | | 二、 | 行情展望 3 | | 第二部分 | 美联储降息预期反复 5 | | 第三部分 | 铜矿扰动增加，供应紧张的情况难以缓解 7 | | 一、 | 铜精矿供应增量骤降 7 | | 二、 | 再生加工企业开工下滑，废铜供应紧张阶段性缓解 9 | | 三、 | 原料供应不足向冶炼端传导加速 10 | | 第四部分 | 消费面分析 12 | | 一、 | 传统消费增速明显下滑 12 | | 二、 | 汽车消费韧性凸显 15 | | 三、 | 风光发电超预期增长 18 | | 四、 | 锂电铜箔爆发式增长 21 | | 五、 | 消费总结 21 | | 第五部分 | 供需平衡表 22 | 有色金属研发报告 铜 12 月报 2025 年 12 月 1 日 利多显性化，市场维持高位震荡 第一部分 铜市场综述 【行情回顾】 11 月铜价 ...

Group 1 - The new LPR in China remains stable for the sixth consecutive month, with the 1-year and 5-year rates at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively [1] - The U.S. non-farm employment increased by 119,000 in September, exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021 [1] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for November is at 51.9, a four-month low, while the services PMI is at 55, a four-month high, indicating mixed economic signals [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes reveal significant divisions among officials regarding future rate cuts, with some advocating for a potential cut in December [2] - New York Fed President Williams suggests there is still room for further rate cuts as the labor market cools, while other officials express caution about high asset valuations [2] - Market expectations for a December rate cut have increased, with probabilities rising from 44% to 71% following supportive comments from several Fed officials [13] Group 3 - In the futures market, various commodities experienced price declines, with ICE Brent crude oil down 2.92% and COMEX gold down 0.77% [4] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 86.82 basis points, influenced by deteriorating Sino-Japanese relations and Fed meeting minutes that dampened rate cut expectations [4] - The A-share market saw declines across major indices, with the ChiNext index dropping 6.15%, attributed to falling risk appetite and Fed meeting outcomes [6] Group 4 - The bond market showed mixed movements, with credit bonds slightly rising while interest rate bonds experienced minor fluctuations [10] - U.S. Treasury yields generally declined, particularly the 5-year yield, which fell by 12 basis points, amid mixed economic signals and Fed officials' support for potential rate cuts [12]

Group 1: Current AI Capital Expenditure Landscape - The current AI capital expenditure in the U.S. is at a historical high but still represents less than 1% of GDP, significantly lower than previous technology cycles which ranged from 2% to 5% [3][4] - AI computing demand is growing at an annual rate of 400%, while the cost of computing is decreasing at 40% annually, creating a widening gap that drives capital expenditure expansion [3] - The absolute scale and growth rate of U.S. AI capital expenditure have raised market concerns, with a projected revenue increase of approximately $300 billion in AI-related infrastructure by 2025 [3][4] Group 2: Financial Risks and External Financing - Major U.S. tech companies are increasingly relying on debt financing, with $1.4 trillion in bonds issued recently, raising concerns about financial risks [5][6] - Meta's net profit is projected to drop by 82.73% in Q3 2025, despite increasing capital expenditures, indicating a significant erosion of profits due to AI R&D spending [5] - The technology debt market reflects changing market sentiments, with the proportion of tech debt in U.S. investment-grade bonds rising from 7% to 34% [6] Group 3: Profitability and Return on Investment Concerns - The profitability of AI capital expenditures is under scrutiny, with high R&D costs significantly impacting net profit margins [7][8] - The return on investment for AI infrastructure is expected to take 15 years or longer, conflicting with the short-term performance expectations of tech companies [8] - Market concerns about the sustainability of AI investments are reflected in stock price declines for companies like Nvidia and Meta [9] Group 4: Infrastructure and Supply Chain Challenges - Electricity supply is a critical constraint on AI capital expenditure, with data center electricity consumption projected to rise from 4.4% to between 6.7% and 12% of total U.S. electricity by 2028 [10][11] - Regional electricity policy differences exacerbate the challenges, with states like Virginia facing rising electricity costs due to increased demand from data centers [10] - The energy policies and high costs of domestic chip manufacturing pose additional challenges for AI project profitability [12] Group 5: Macroeconomic Environment and Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve's cautious monetary policy and rising financing costs may suppress capital expenditure growth in AI [12][13] - Geopolitical factors and supply chain disruptions are increasing chip manufacturing costs, further squeezing profit margins for AI projects [12][13] - Future sustainability of AI capital expenditure will depend on technological advancements, financing conditions, and stable energy supply [15][16] Group 6: Market Sentiment and Investment Strategies - Market concerns about AI capital expenditure sustainability are not uniform, with some institutions like Goldman Sachs believing the current investment level is sustainable [14] - The divergence in market sentiment indicates that while some companies may face financial pressures, others with stronger financial positions may navigate these challenges more effectively [6][14] - Companies are encouraged to balance short-term profitability pressures with long-term technological advantages and explore strategies to optimize energy costs [16][17]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the documents Core Views - This week, copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Supported by the precious metals market, copper prices were strong in the first half of the week and adjusted on Friday. The downstream price - fixing volume rebounded significantly. The market has both liquidity easing expectations and AI bubble risks. The price around 85,000 may be the psychological price for downstream price - fixing [1]. - Overseas production halt news and expectations boosted the domestic aluminum price, making it stronger than the overseas price. Short - term profit - taking led to a correction in the Shanghai aluminum futures. Aluminum ingots continued to accumulate inventory, while aluminum rods, sheets, and foils slightly reduced inventory. The downstream consumption was acceptable, and the acceptance of high prices increased. It may show a volatile trend in the short term [2]. - Zinc prices fluctuated this week. The domestic and imported TC decreased further. The domestic zinc ore supply will be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. The processing fee has dropped significantly, but the smelter's profit is still acceptable. The demand is seasonally weak domestically, while overseas, European demand is average and Middle - East demand has high growth. The domestic social inventory fluctuates, and the overseas LME inventory is oscillating at a low level. The export window has opened. The price may not fall deeply, and it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities, and consider the positive arbitrage opportunity of 01 - 03 for the month - spread [5]. - Nickel's short - term fundamental situation is weak. The price of nickel sulfate is relatively stable, the output of pure nickel decreased slightly, the demand is weak, and the inventory at home and abroad continued to increase. There are continuous disturbances in the Indonesian nickel ore market, and the policy side has the motivation to support prices. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities [6]. - The fundamentals of stainless steel remain weak. The steel mill's production in October increased slightly month - on - month, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, the prices of nickel iron and chrome iron are stable, and the inventory remains at a high level. The Indonesian policy side has the motivation to support prices. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities [7]. - Lead prices fluctuated at a high level this week. The supply of recycled lead increased, and the social inventory accumulated. The demand for batteries may weaken. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate within a narrow range next week, and it is recommended to wait and see the resumption of recycled lead production and the increase in warehouse receipts [9]. - The center of tin prices rose this week. The supply has been marginally restored, but there are still uncertainties overseas. The demand is mainly rigid. In the short term, it follows the macro - sentiment, and in the long - term, it is recommended to hold near the cost line or use it as a long - position in the non - ferrous metals portfolio [11]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate in the short term and oscillate at the bottom of the cycle in the long - term. The supply and demand in the fourth quarter are expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state [15]. - The price of lithium carbonate is running strongly. The raw material supply is tight, the upstream inventory has decreased significantly, and the downstream inventory is relatively sufficient. The trading is light, and the basis has weakened slightly. In the long - term, the pattern may change in the next 1 - 2 years if the energy storage demand remains high and the power demand is stable [17]. Summary by Metal Copper - This week, copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The downstream price - fixing volume rebounded significantly. The market has both liquidity easing expectations and AI bubble risks. The price around 85,000 may be the psychological price for downstream price - fixing [1]. Aluminum - Overseas production halt news and expectations boosted the domestic aluminum price, making it stronger than the overseas price. Short - term profit - taking led to a correction in the Shanghai aluminum futures. Aluminum ingots continued to accumulate inventory, while aluminum rods, sheets, and foils slightly reduced inventory. The downstream consumption was acceptable, and the acceptance of high prices increased. It may show a volatile trend in the short term [2]. Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuated this week. The domestic and imported TC decreased further. The domestic zinc ore supply will be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. The processing fee has dropped significantly, but the smelter's profit is still acceptable. The demand is seasonally weak domestically, while overseas, European demand is average and Middle - East demand has high growth. The domestic social inventory fluctuates, and the overseas LME inventory is oscillating at a low level. The export window has opened. The price may not fall deeply, and it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities, and consider the positive arbitrage opportunity of 01 - 03 for the month - spread [5]. Nickel - Nickel's short - term fundamental situation is weak. The price of nickel sulfate is relatively stable, the output of pure nickel decreased slightly, the demand is weak, and the inventory at home and abroad continued to increase. There are continuous disturbances in the Indonesian nickel ore market, and the policy side has the motivation to support prices. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities [6]. Stainless Steel - The fundamentals of stainless steel remain weak. The steel mill's production in October increased slightly month - on - month, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, the prices of nickel iron and chrome iron are stable, and the inventory remains at a high level. The Indonesian policy side has the motivation to support prices. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities [7]. Lead - Lead prices fluctuated at a high level this week. The supply of recycled lead increased, and the social inventory accumulated. The demand for batteries may weaken. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate within a narrow range next week, and it is recommended to wait and see the resumption of recycled lead production and the increase in warehouse receipts [9]. Tin - The center of tin prices rose this week. The supply has been marginally restored, but there are still uncertainties overseas. The demand is mainly rigid. In the short term, it follows the macro - sentiment, and in the long - term, it is recommended to hold near the cost line or use it as a long - position in the non - ferrous metals portfolio [11]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate in the short term and oscillate at the bottom of the cycle in the long - term. The supply and demand in the fourth quarter are expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate is running strongly. The raw material supply is tight, the upstream inventory has decreased significantly, and the downstream inventory is relatively sufficient. The trading is light, and the basis has weakened slightly. In the long - term, the pattern may change in the next 1 - 2 years if the energy storage demand remains high and the power demand is stable [17].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report Core Views - This week, copper prices fluctuated narrowly. Supported by the precious metals market, copper prices were strong in the first half of the week and adjusted on Friday. The downstream point - pricing volume rebounded significantly. The price around 85,000 may be the psychological price for downstream point - pricing [1]. - Overseas production suspension news and expectations boosted the domestic aluminum price, which was stronger than the overseas price. Short - term profit - taking led to a correction in the Shanghai aluminum futures. Aluminum ingots continued to accumulate inventory, while aluminum rods, sheets, and foils slightly reduced inventory. The downstream consumption was okay, and the acceptance of high prices increased. In the short term, it may show a fluctuating trend [1][2]. - This week, zinc prices fluctuated. The domestic and imported TC decreased further this week. The domestic zinc ore will be tighter from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. The processing fee has dropped significantly. The demand is seasonally weak domestically, while overseas, the demand in Europe is average and the growth rate in the Middle East is high. The price center may be difficult to decline deeply. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading; pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity and be cautious when increasing positions; for the month - spread, pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of 01 - 03 [5]. - Nickel prices decreased this week. The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly month - on - month, the demand was weak overall, and the inventory continued to accumulate at home and abroad. There are continuous disturbances at the Indonesian ore end, and the policy side has the motivation to support prices. Pay attention to the short - selling opportunities [6]. - Stainless steel prices were weak. The steel mill's production plan in October increased slightly month - on - month, the demand was mainly for rigid needs, the cost remained stable, and the inventory remained at a high level. The Indonesian policy side has the motivation to support prices. Pay attention to the short - selling opportunities [7]. - This week, lead prices fluctuated at a high level. The supply of primary and recycled lead was tight, and the supply - demand mismatch was serious. Now the resumption of recycled lead production has alleviated some of the contradictions, and the social inventory has increased. The demand is expected to weaken. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate narrowly next week, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - This week, tin prices increased. The processing fee of tin ore remained at a low level, and the supply has been marginally repaired. The overseas output is still controversial. The demand is mainly rigid, and the overseas LME inventory has recovered. In the short term, it follows the macro - sentiment. In the long - term, the supply will increase, but the elasticity is limited. It is recommended to hold at a low price close to the cost or use it as a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals [11]. - This week, the price of industrial silicon was stable. The production in the northwest region was basically stable, and the overall change was small. In the fourth quarter, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate; in the long - term, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle [15]. - Affected by the lithium - battery demand expectation and the market's bullish sentiment, the price of lithium carbonate was strong. The upstream inventory has been significantly reduced, and the downstream inventory is still relatively sufficient. The basis has slightly weakened. In the long - term, if the energy - storage demand remains high and the power demand is stable, the pattern of lithium carbonate may change in the next 1 - 2 years [17]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Inventory**: From November 13th to 19th, the Shanghai copper spot price changed from 55 to 95, the waste - refined copper price difference increased by 130, the LME inventory increased by 17,375, and the LME注销仓单 increased by 800 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: This week, copper prices fluctuated narrowly. Supported by the precious metals market, copper prices were strong in the first half of the week and adjusted on Friday. The downstream point - pricing volume rebounded significantly. The price around 85,000 may be the psychological price for downstream point - pricing [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: From November 13th to 19th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 90, the domestic alumina price decreased by 5, the aluminum LME inventory decreased by 2,000, and the aluminum LME注销仓单 increased by 29,450 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Overseas production suspension news and expectations boosted the domestic aluminum price, which was stronger than the overseas price. Short - term profit - taking led to a correction in the Shanghai aluminum futures. Aluminum ingots continued to accumulate inventory, while aluminum rods, sheets, and foils slightly reduced inventory. The downstream consumption was okay, and the acceptance of high prices increased. In the short term, it may show a fluctuating trend [1][2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: From November 13th to 19th, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 100, the zinc social inventory remained unchanged, the LME zinc inventory increased by 1,550, and the LME zinc注销仓单 increased by 100 [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic and imported TC decreased further this week. The domestic zinc ore will be tighter from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. The demand is seasonally weak domestically, while overseas, the demand in Europe is average and the growth rate in the Middle East is high. The export window has opened [5]. - **Strategy**: The domestic consumption of zinc is weak, but there will be a phased reduction in supply at the end of the year. The price center may be difficult to decline deeply. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading; pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity and be cautious when increasing positions; for the month - spread, pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of 01 - 03 [5]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: From November 13th to 19th, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore decreased by 1, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 700, the LME inventory decreased by 1,986, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 2,238 [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly month - on - month, the demand was weak overall, and the inventory continued to accumulate at home and abroad. There are continuous disturbances at the Indonesian ore end, and the policy side has the motivation to support prices [6]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: From November 13th to 19th, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil decreased by 100, the price of waste stainless steel increased by 50 [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The steel mill's production plan in October increased slightly month - on - month, the demand was mainly for rigid needs, the cost remained stable, and the inventory remained at a high level. The Indonesian policy side has the motivation to support prices [7]. Lead - **Price and Inventory**: From November 13th to 19th, the lead spot price increased by 10, the LME inventory decreased by 325, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 2,500 [8][9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of primary and recycled lead was tight, and the supply - demand mismatch was serious. Now the resumption of recycled lead production has alleviated some of the contradictions, and the social inventory has increased. The demand is expected to weaken [9]. - **Strategy**: It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate narrowly next week, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Tin - **Price and Inventory**: From November 13th to 19th, the tin spot import profit decreased by 236.31, the LME inventory increased by 60, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 10 [10][11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The processing fee of tin ore remained at a low level, and the supply has been marginally repaired. The overseas output is still controversial. The demand is mainly rigid, and the overseas LME inventory has recovered [11]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it follows the macro - sentiment. In the long - term, the supply will increase, but the elasticity is limited. It is recommended to hold at a low price close to the cost or use it as a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals [11]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: From November 13th to 19th, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 410, the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 410, the 553 East China basis decreased by 410, the 553 Tianjin basis decreased by 410, and the warehouse receipt increased by 10 [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production in the northwest region was basically stable, and the overall change was small. In the fourth quarter, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state [15]. - **Price Trend**: In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate; in the long - term, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: From November 13th to 19th, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 1,500, the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 1,450, the main - contract basis decreased by 4,280, the near - month contract basis increased by 1,500, and the warehouse receipt increased by 155 [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The upstream inventory has been significantly reduced, and the downstream inventory is still relatively sufficient. The basis has slightly weakened [17]. - **Price Trend**: In the long - term, if the energy - storage demand remains high and the power demand is stable, the pattern of lithium carbonate may change in the next 1 - 2 years [17].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents Group 2: Report's Core View - This week, copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and 85,000 yuan might be the psychological price for downstream price-fixing. Aluminum prices showed a short - term oscillating trend. Zinc prices fluctuated, and the price center was unlikely to drop significantly. Nickel and stainless - steel fundamentals were weak, and short - term high - selling opportunities could be considered. Lead prices oscillated at a high level and were expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week. Tin prices increased, with short - term observation recommended and long - term low - buying near the cost line. Industrial silicon prices were expected to oscillate in the short - term and at the cycle bottom in the long - term. Carbonate lithium prices were strong, and a pattern change might occur in 1 - 2 years [1][2][5][6][7][8][9][12][16][18] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - This week, copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Driven by the precious metal market, copper prices were strong in the first half of the week and adjusted on Friday. The downstream price - fixing volume rebounded significantly. The market had both liquidity easing expectations and AI bubble risks. The 85,000 - yuan level might be the psychological price for downstream price - fixing [1] Aluminum - Overseas shutdown news boosted the domestic aluminum price, which was stronger than the overseas price. Short - term profit - taking led to a correction in the Shanghai aluminum futures. Aluminum ingots continued to accumulate inventory, while aluminum rods and strips slightly reduced inventory. Downstream consumption was okay, and the acceptance of high prices increased. It might show an oscillating trend in the short - term [1][2] Zinc - This week, zinc prices oscillated. The domestic and imported TC decreased further. The supply of domestic mines would be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. The processing fee decreased significantly, but the smelter's profit was still okay. In November, the Huoshaoyun zinc ingot was officially put into production. Domestic demand was seasonally weak, while overseas demand in the Middle East had high growth. The domestic social inventory oscillated, and the overseas LME inventory was at a low level. The export window was open. It was recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities, and focus on the positive arbitrage opportunity of 01 - 03 [5] Nickel - The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly, demand was weak, and both domestic and overseas inventories continued to accumulate. With continuous disturbances in the Indonesian nickel ore market and price - support motivation from the policy side, short - term high - selling opportunities could be considered [6] Stainless - steel - The steel mill's production increased slightly in October. Demand was mainly for rigid needs. The prices of nickel - iron and chrome - iron remained stable. Inventory was at a high level. With price - support motivation from the Indonesian policy side, short - term high - selling opportunities could be considered [6][7] Lead - This week, lead prices oscillated at a high level. The scrap rate was weak year - on - year, but the recovery of recycling profit encouraged resumption of production. The supply of refined lead and recycled lead was tight from late September, and the current resumption of recycled lead production had alleviated the supply - demand contradiction. The battery's production rate increased by 1.4% this week, but the finished - product inventory increased, and demand was expected to weaken. It was expected that lead prices would maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week, between 17,300 - 17,700 yuan [8][9] Tin - This week, the center of tin prices increased. The processing fee of tin ore remained low, with limited upward space. The supply marginally recovered after the Yunnan Tin's maintenance ended. Overseas production was still uncertain. Demand was mainly rigid, and the downstream's acceptable price increased. The short - term fundamentals were okay, and it was recommended to wait and see. In the long - term, it was recommended to buy near the cost line [12] Industrial Silicon - The production of the leading enterprise in Xinjiang was stable. In the fourth quarter, the supply and demand of industrial silicon were expected to be in a slightly loose balance. In the short - term, prices were expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, they were expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [16] Carbonate Lithium - Affected by the expected lithium - battery demand and market bullish sentiment, carbonate lithium prices were strong. The lithium ore was in short supply, and the upstream inventory decreased significantly. The downstream inventory was relatively sufficient, and the market was in a wait - and - see state. In the long - term, the pattern change might occur in 1 - 2 years [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Copper prices fluctuated narrowly this week, with downstream point - pricing volume rebounding. The price around 85,000 may be a psychological point - pricing level for downstream industries [1]. - Aluminum prices showed a short - term shock trend, with domestic prices stronger than overseas due to overseas production - halt news, and profit - taking causing a callback in the Shanghai aluminum market [2]. - Zinc prices fluctuated. Supply may have a phased reduction at the end of the year, and the price may not fall deeply. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities, and 01 - 03 calendar spread positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. - Nickel and stainless - steel fundamentals are weak, and it is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities considering the price - support motivation of Indonesian policies [6][7]. - Lead prices oscillated at a high level. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range shock next week, and it is recommended to operate cautiously while observing the resumption of recycled lead production and the increase in warehouse receipts [8][9]. - Tin prices increased in the center of gravity. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, and in the long - term, it is recommended to hold near the cost line or use it as a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals [12]. - Industrial silicon supply and demand are expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state in Q4, with prices expected to oscillate in the short - term and fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle in the long - term [16]. - Lithium carbonate prices are running strongly. If energy - storage demand remains high and power demand is stable, the long - term pattern may change in the next 1 - 2 years [18]. Summary by Metal Type Copper - **Price Performance**: Copper prices fluctuated narrowly this week, being strong in the first half of the week driven by precious metals and adjusting on Friday. The downstream point - pricing volume rebounded significantly [1]. - **Macro Factors**: There are both expectations of loose liquidity and risks of AI bubbles. The short - term release of TGA liquidity after the US government's agreement to reopen the government supports risk - asset prices, while the concentrated trading of AI giants' bond risks has raised market concerns about AI risks [1]. - **Outlook**: The price around 85,000 may be a psychological point - pricing level for downstream industries, and attention should be paid to the industrial support at this level [1]. Aluminum - **Price Performance**: Overseas production - halt news and expectations boosted domestic aluminum prices, which were stronger than overseas prices. Short - term profit - taking led to a callback in the Shanghai aluminum market. Aluminum ingots continued to accumulate inventory, while aluminum rods, sheets, and foils slightly reduced inventory. The downstream consumption was acceptable, and the acceptance of high prices increased, showing a short - term shock trend [1][2]. Zinc - **Price Performance**: Zinc prices oscillated this week [5]. - **Supply Side**: Domestic and imported TC continued to decline this week. From the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, domestic zinc ore supply will be tighter, and processing fees have dropped significantly. The production of Huoshaoyun zinc ingots has started, and some smelters are under maintenance, with the total output expected to increase by about 6,000 tons month - on - month [5]. - **Demand Side**: Domestic demand is seasonally weak, European demand is average, and Middle - East demand has high growth. Domestic social inventory is oscillating, and overseas LME inventory is oscillating at a low level. The export window has opened, and there has been some inventory delivery overseas [5]. - **Strategy**: Due to weak domestic consumption but potential phased supply reduction at the end of the year, the price may not fall deeply. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities with caution, and consider the 01 - 03 calendar spread positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. Nickel - **Price Performance**: Nickel prices declined this week [6]. - **Supply Side**: The price of nickel sulfate is relatively stable, and the output of pure nickel decreased slightly month - on - month [6]. - **Demand Side**: The overall demand is weak, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel strengthened slightly after the price decline [6]. - **Inventory**: Both domestic and overseas inventories continued to accumulate [6]. - **Strategy**: Considering the price - support motivation of Indonesian policies, it is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [6]. Stainless Steel - **Supply**: Steel mills' production in October increased slightly month - on - month [7]. - **Demand**: The demand is mainly for rigid needs [7]. - **Cost**: The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remained stable [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory remained at a high level, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged [7]. - **Strategy**: Considering the price - support motivation of Indonesian policies, it is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [7]. Lead - **Price Performance**: Lead prices oscillated at a high level this week [8]. - **Supply Side**: The scrap volume is weaker year - on - year, and the recovery of recycled lead profits has encouraged复产. The supply of primary and recycled lead ingots has been tight since the end of September, and the resumption of recycled lead production has alleviated some supply - demand contradictions, with social inventory accumulating [8][9]. - **Demand Side**: The battery production rate increased by 1.4% this week, but the battery inventory accumulated, and the demand is expected to weaken. The refined - scrap price difference is - 100, and the recycled lead production has gradually started to produce [9]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that lead prices will maintain a narrow - range shock next week, ranging from 17,300 to 17,700. It is recommended to operate cautiously while observing the resumption of recycled lead production and the increase in warehouse receipts [9]. Tin - **Price Performance**: Tin prices increased in the center of gravity this week [12]. - **Supply Side**: The processing fees of tin ore remained at a low level, with limited upward space. The maintenance of Yunnan Tin has ended, and the supply has marginally recovered. Overseas production is still uncertain, and the Indonesian government's policy may affect the supply in the future [12]. - **Demand Side**: The demand is mainly supported by rigid needs at high prices, and the downstream's psychological price for orders has increased under the strong sentiment of non - ferrous metals. The overseas LME inventory is oscillating at a low level and recovering [12]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, and in the long - term, it is recommended to hold near the cost line or use it as a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Supply Side**: The operation of leading enterprises in Xinjiang was stable, with 93 furnaces in operation. By the end of November, there will be less than 20 furnaces in operation in Sichuan and Yunnan. The production in the northwest region is basically stable, with little overall change [16]. - **Supply - Demand Outlook**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon are expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state in Q4. In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle based on the seasonal marginal cost [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Performance**: Lithium carbonate prices are running strongly, affected by the expected demand for lithium batteries and the market's bullish sentiment [18]. - **Raw Material**: The spot market of lithium ore is tight. Holders are more willing to sell when the futures price is high, and the self - pick - up transaction price of lithium concentrate is about 19,000 yuan lower than the futures price [18]. - **Lithium Salt**: The upstream inventory has been significantly reduced, and enterprises mainly rely on long - term contracts and pre - sales orders. The willingness to sell scattered orders increases when the futures price is high. The inventory of the middle and downstream is still relatively sufficient, and the futures - spot trading is inactive, with a strong wait - and - see sentiment [18]. - **Outlook**: In the context of "anti - involution", the price elasticity of lithium carbonate is high after the supply - side disturbances are resolved, and the downward support is strong before the resolution. If the energy - storage demand remains high and the power demand is stable, the long - term pattern may change in the next 1 - 2 years [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Supported by the precious metals market, copper prices were relatively strong in the first half of the week and adjusted on Friday. The downstream point - price volume rebounded significantly. In the future, the price around 85,000 may become the psychological price for downstream point - pricing [1]. - Overseas production suspension news and expectations boosted the domestic aluminum price to be stronger than the overseas price. Short - term profit - taking led to a correction in the Shanghai aluminum futures. Aluminum ingots continued to accumulate inventory, while aluminum rods, sheets, foils saw a slight reduction in inventory. The downstream consumption was fair, and the acceptance of high prices increased. In the short term, it may show a fluctuating trend [2]. - Zinc prices fluctuated this week. The domestic and imported TC declined further. The supply of domestic ore will tighten marginally from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. The demand is seasonally weak domestically, while overseas, European demand is average and Middle - East demand has high growth. The price center may not decline deeply. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities with caution in position - building, and focus on the positive arbitrage opportunity of 01 - 03 for the month - spread [5]. - For nickel, the supply side saw a slight decline in pure nickel production, the demand side was weak, and the inventory continued to accumulate both at home and abroad. With continuous disturbances in the Indonesian ore end and the policy side having a motivation to support prices, it is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [6]. - For stainless steel, the supply increased slightly in October, the demand was mainly for rigid needs, the cost remained stable, and the inventory was at a high level. With the Indonesian policy side having a motivation to support prices, it is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [7]. - Lead prices fluctuated at a high level this week. The supply - side contradiction was partially alleviated, and the social inventory increased. The demand side had a weakening expectation. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate within a narrow range next week, and it is recommended to wait and see the resumption of recycled production and the increase in warehouse receipts [8][9]. - Tin prices rose this week. The supply - side was gradually recovering, and the demand was mainly supported by rigid needs. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and in the long term, it is advisable to hold at a low price close to the cost or use it as a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals [12]. - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand are expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state in Q4, with prices expected to fluctuate. In the long term, prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle based on the seasonal marginal cost [16]. - Lithium carbonate prices were strong due to the expected lithium - battery demand and market bullish sentiment. The supply - side price elasticity is high after the disturbances are resolved, and the long - term pattern may change in the next 1 - 2 years if the energy - storage demand remains high and the power demand is stable [18]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory**: From November 10 - 14, the spot import profit decreased by 181.03, and the LME inventory decreased by 450 tons [1]. - **Market Analysis**: This week, copper prices fluctuated narrowly. The downstream point - price volume rebounded. The market has both liquidity easing expectations and AI bubble risks [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: From November 10 - 14, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased slightly, and the social inventory remained unchanged [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Overseas production suspension news and expectations boosted the domestic price, but short - term profit - taking led to a correction. The downstream consumption was fair, and it may fluctuate in the short term [2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: From November 10 - 14, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 140 yuan, and the LME inventory increased by 1175 tons [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply - side TC declined, and the demand was seasonally weak domestically. The export window has opened, and it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [5]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: From November 10 - 14, the Shanghai nickel price decreased by 950 yuan, and the inventory continued to accumulate [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply side saw a slight decline in production, the demand was weak, and it is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [6]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: From November 10 - 14, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, etc. remained unchanged, and the inventory was at a high level [6][21]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply increased slightly, the demand was mainly for rigid needs, and it is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [7]. Lead - **Price and Inventory**: From November 10 - 14, the lead price fluctuated at a high level, and the social inventory increased slightly [8][9]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply - side contradiction was partially alleviated, the demand had a weakening expectation, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly next week [8][9]. Tin - **Price and Inventory**: From November 10 - 14, the tin price rose, and the LME inventory increased by 10 tons [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply - side was gradually recovering, and the demand was mainly supported by rigid needs. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and hold at a low price in the long term [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: From November 10 - 14, the basis of different grades increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 42 [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply and demand are expected to be balanced and slightly loose in Q4, and prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and cycle at the bottom in the long term [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: From November 10 - 14, the SMM electric - carbon and industrial - carbon prices increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 338 [18]. - **Market Analysis**: Driven by demand expectations and bullish sentiment, prices were strong. The supply - side price elasticity is high, and the long - term pattern may change in 1 - 2 years [18].

Core Insights - The competition in artificial intelligence is shifting towards infrastructure, with significant capital flowing into computing power foundations. Anthropic has announced a $50 billion investment to build an AI infrastructure network across the U.S. [3][5] - Anthropic's investment is substantial but still smaller compared to competitors like OpenAI, which plans to invest approximately $1.4 trillion over the next eight years, and Meta, which will invest $600 billion in the next three years [3][4]. Company Developments - Anthropic, founded in 2021, has recently completed a $13 billion Series F funding round, leading to a post-money valuation of approximately $183 billion [4]. - The company is collaborating with Fluidstack, a UK-based AI cloud platform, to leverage its expertise in large-scale GPU cluster deployment for the new data centers [5]. - Anthropic's customer base has expanded significantly, with over 30,000 enterprise clients, and the number of clients contributing over $100,000 annually has surged nearly sevenfold in the past year [6]. Industry Trends - The global investment in AI and data center infrastructure is projected to reach $5 trillion, aimed at building new data centers, purchasing chips, and upgrading power grids [7]. - Major tech companies, including Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta, are also ramping up their investments in AI infrastructure, with Amazon planning to invest $125 billion by 2025 and Google increasing its capital expenditure to between $91 billion and $93 billion [6]. Market Concerns - There are growing concerns regarding the sustainability of the current "computing power construction boom," particularly regarding the U.S.'s ability to meet electricity demands for AI data centers [8]. - Analysts warn of potential power shortages, estimating that by 2028, the U.S. could face a power deficit of up to 20% due to the high energy consumption of AI data centers [8][9]. - The high capital expenditures of tech giants are outpacing revenue growth, raising questions about the sustainability of their investments and the potential for a bubble similar to the dot-com era [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - SoftBank unexpectedly sold all its shares in Nvidia, cashing out approximately $5.83 billion, amid rising concerns about the overvaluation of AI concept stocks [1][6]. Financial Performance - For the second quarter of the fiscal year 2025, SoftBank reported a net profit of 2.5 trillion yen (approximately $162 billion), significantly exceeding analysts' expectations of 418.2 billion yen [1]. - The strong performance was attributed to successful investments in artificial intelligence [1]. Stock Split Announcement - SoftBank announced a 1-for-4 stock split effective January 1 of the following year [2]. Investment Portfolio - SoftBank's investment portfolio includes several leading AI companies, such as OpenAI, contributing to substantial paper gains and a 78% increase in stock price over the three months ending September [2]. - Analysts from Citigroup raised their target price for SoftBank to 27,100 yen, linking it to OpenAI's valuation, which is estimated to be between $500 billion and $1 trillion [2]. Nvidia's Market Position - Nvidia's market capitalization recently surpassed $5 trillion, making it the first company to reach this milestone [7]. - Nvidia's stock has increased over 40% this year and has surged more than tenfold since the launch of ChatGPT in 2022, raising concerns about a potential AI bubble [7]. Historical Context of Nvidia Holdings - This is not the first time SoftBank has sold its Nvidia shares; it previously sold its entire stake in 2019 for $7 billion, missing out on significant gains as Nvidia's market value soared [7]. - SoftBank had re-entered Nvidia's stock last year, increasing its holdings to approximately $3 billion by March of this year [7]. Future AI Investments - SoftBank's founder, Masayoshi Son, is optimistic about the potential of artificial intelligence and is planning significant investments to enhance the company's influence in the AI sector [9]. - Current initiatives include deploying a "Stargate" data center, planning a $30 billion investment in OpenAI, and lobbying for a $1 trillion AI manufacturing center in collaboration with companies like TSMC [9].