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Volatility in Gold, Silver; Why Trump Picked Warsh
Youtube· 2026-01-30 14:46
Kevin Hanks is with me live at the CBOE for our pre-bell playbook. And look, it's Kevin Walsh. We've been waiting for it.It's very interesting that he chose right now to tell us this news um at the Melania premiere. Maybe he was trying to promote the premiere, too. Who knows.But that's it. It's Kevin Worsh. What do you think.>> Good morning, Nicole. Yeah, you know, someone asked me last night at dinner, who would I pick if I was the president. And I said of the four people, either one of the Kevin was fine, ...
服务成本大幅上涨 美国12月PPI增速超预期
智通财经网· 2026-01-30 14:05
智通财经APP获悉,美国12月PPI年率 3%,预期2.7%,前值3.00%。美国12月核心PPI年率 3.3%,预期2.90%,前值3.00%。数据公布 后,美元指数DXY短线小幅走高近10点,美债收益率小幅走高。 | Metric | Actual | Estimate | | --- | --- | --- | | PPI final demand (MoM) | +0.5% | +0.2% | | PPI ex. food, energy (MoM) | +0.7% | +0.2% | | PPI final demand (YoY) | +3.0% | +2.8% | | PPI ex. food, energy (YoY) | +3.3% | +2.9% | 其中,服务成本大幅上涨,贸易利润率指标创下2024年年中以来的最大增幅。该类别价格上涨主要归因于机械设备批发利润率的提 高。然而,商品价格在上月上涨后保持不变。 PPI数据与本月早些时候公布的数据基本相符,1月中旬公布的美国12月CPI同比涨幅为2.7%,与市场预期及前值一致;环比涨幅为 0.3%,同样与市场预期及前值一致。最新的PPI表明, ...
澳大利亚2025年12月CPI同比增3.8%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2026-01-28 00:47
每经AI快讯,1月28日最新披露数据显示,澳大利亚2025年12月CPI同比增3.8%,预期增3.55%,前值增 3.40%。 ...
Inflation: The difference between CPI and PCE explained
Youtube· 2026-01-26 21:05
Inflation is at the top [music] of everyone's mind right now. Why, you ask. Because when they go to the grocery store, they're worried about paying higher prices for beef, poultry, cereal, toilet paper, paper towels, you name it.Now, we all know that inflation [music] means an increase in price. And we're going to break it down for you right now. There are two primary ways to measure inflation.First up is the CPI or the consumer price index. And the second one is the PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation index ...
1月消费观察:25年社会零售全年增长
国投证券(香港)· 2026-01-26 09:19
SDICSI 2026 年 1 月 26 日 行业报告 1 月消费观察:25 年社会零售全年增长 3.7% 报告摘要 根据国家统计局发布的数据,25 年 12 月社会零售总额为 45136 亿元,同比增长 0.9%,1-12 月累积增长 3.7%。自 25 年 6 月以来,社零增速持续回落,各个主要 细分消费板块也观察到了类似的表现。从基本面来看,消费增长仍存在压力。 商品零售增速继续回落,12 月商品零售总额为 39398 亿元,同比增长 0.7%,增 速较上月下降 0.3pct,1-12 月累积增长 3.8%。餐饮四季度起有边际改善,较三 季度增速回升,12 月餐饮零售总额为 5738 亿元,同比增长 2.2%,1-12 月累积增 长 3.2%,其中规模以上餐饮零售 12 月同比下滑 1.1%。 其他细分领域:必选消费增速下滑,12 月粮油食品零售总额为 2323 亿元,同比 增长 3.9%,1-12 月累积增长 9.3%;12 月日用品零售总额为 776 亿元,同比增长 3.7%,1-12 月累积增长 6.3%,四季度粮油食品和日用品增速都较三季度明显回 落,我们认为与 CPI 有关。服装消费增长乏力, ...
推动物价合理回升,多部门明确政策思路
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2026-01-25 13:13
价格是经济冷暖的信号,也是提振微观主体信心的关键。 第一财经记者注意到,国家发改委、国家统计局、中国人民银行等多部门近期均对当前物价问题作出表 态,并明确了今年推动价格合理回升的政策举措。 国家统计局局长康义表示,推动物价合理回升,既有利于促进企业和居民增收,也有利于稳定市场预 期,要继续发挥宏观政策集成效应,扩大居民消费,规范市场竞争行为,积极破解供需矛盾,促进物价 合理回升。 具体到政策层面,国家发改委表示,将从总量政策、结构政策、改革政策三方面发力,实施一系列调 控、改革、监管举措,打好"组合拳",着力推动物价温和回升。央行也提出,把促进经济稳定增长、物 价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量,继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策,为推动物价合理回升营造适宜 的货币金融环境。 从能源价格来看,受国际油价波动下行影响,国内能源价格下调,也是CPI走低的重要因素。2025年, 能源价格下降3.3%,影响CPI下降约0.25个百分点。 2025年,扣除食品和能源后的核心CPI比上年上涨0.7%,涨幅比上年扩大0.2个百分点。其中12月份上涨 1.2%,连续4个月保持在1%以上。随着消费品以旧换新政策拉动,部分行业产能治理成 ...
新加坡12月份CPI同比增长1.2%,预估为1.2%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2026-01-23 05:08
每经AI快讯,1月23日消息,新加坡12月份CPI同比增长1.2%,预估为1.2%。 ...
日本2025年12月全国CPI同比增2.1%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2026-01-22 23:44
每经AI快讯,1月23日,最新公布数据显示,日本2025年12月全国CPI同比增2.1%,预期增2.2%,前值 增2.9%;核心CPI同比增2.4%,预期增2.4%,前值增3%。 ...
西宁2025年民生答卷亮点纷呈
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-21 18:32
居民收入上,2025年,西宁市全体居民人均可支配收入38727元,同比增长4.8%,比全省平均增速低0.3 个百分点。其中,农村居民人均可支配收入19369元,增长6.0%,与全省平均增速持平;城镇居民人均 可支配收入45605元,增长4.1%,比全省平均增速高0.1个百分点。西宁市全体居民人均消费支出25951 元,同比增长3.8%。其中,农村居民人均消费支出16193元,增长7.3%;城镇居民人均消费支出29418 元,增长2.8%。 同时,2025年,西宁市居民消费价格指数(CPI)比上年同期下降0.2%。分类别来看,CPI所调查的八 大类商品及服务价格同比呈"六涨两降"态势。其中,其他用品及服务类价格上涨10.1%,教育文化娱乐 类价格上涨2.1%,衣着类价格上涨0.8%,生活用品及服务类价格上涨0.5%,居住类价格上涨0.4%,医 疗保健类价格上涨0.2%;交通通信类价格下降2.3%,食品烟酒类价格下降1.8%。 2025年,西宁粮食总产量稳中有升,总产量24.1万吨,比上年增加0.6万吨,增长2.6%。粮食播种面积 91.5万亩,比上年减少0.1万亩,下降0.1%。粮食综合每亩单产263.2公斤, ...
李迅雷专栏 | PPI“失去十五年”之谜
中泰证券资管· 2026-01-21 11:32
Core Viewpoint - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in China has shown a zero increase over the past 15 years, despite a significant GDP growth of 250% during the same period, indicating a persistent weakness in producer prices and underlying demand issues [3][4][41]. Group 1: PPI Trends and Historical Context - The PPI has been in a negative growth phase since October 2021, marking 39 consecutive months of year-on-year decline by December 2025 [1]. - From 2012 to 2025, there were 111 months of negative PPI, indicating that two-thirds of this period experienced deflation in producer prices [1][4]. - The PPI index, set at 100 in December 2010, remained unchanged at 100 by December 2025, reflecting no price increase over 15 years [1][4]. Group 2: Economic Growth vs. PPI - China's GDP grew from less than 40 trillion yuan in 2010 to over 140 trillion yuan by 2025, a 2.5 times increase, while the broad money supply (M2) increased 3.68 times during the same period [4]. - Despite significant economic growth, the PPI's lack of increase raises questions about the underlying demand and pricing power within the economy [4][41]. Group 3: Factors Influencing PPI - The PPI's long-term decline is attributed to weak demand, particularly after the peak of the real estate market in 2021, which has affected both upstream and downstream price transmission [39][41]. - The relationship between real estate investment and PPI indicates that a downturn in real estate correlates with a decline in producer prices, as seen in historical data [34][41]. - The inability of upstream price changes to effectively transmit to downstream prices is exacerbated by high competition in the downstream sectors and insufficient demand [20][39]. Group 4: External Influences and Export Dynamics - Export dynamics play a crucial role in influencing midstream product prices, with a significant portion of manufacturing exports being affected by global demand fluctuations [24][26]. - The export price index has seen a notable decline, indicating that reliance on price competition to maintain export volumes may not be sustainable [26][28]. - The overall weak demand in the domestic market, particularly in the context of real estate and consumer confidence, has further constrained PPI recovery [28][39]. Group 5: Recommendations for Economic Policy - To address the persistent weakness in PPI, it is essential to adjust the supply-demand relationship by expanding effective demand, particularly through increasing the income of middle and low-income groups [41][49]. - Stabilizing the real estate market is suggested as a means to support consumer spending and alleviate overcapacity issues in various industries [41][49]. - The focus should shift towards enhancing consumer income through government policies, which may involve restructuring fiscal spending to prioritize direct transfers to households [41][49].