春节累库落地， PVC交易现实 PVC周报 2026/02/28 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F0270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 张正华（能源化工组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 供给端 表1：PVC月度平衡表（万吨） | 月 份 | 产 | 量 | PVC进口 | PVC出口 | PVC净出口 | PVC表需 | 表需同比 | 累积表需 | 表需累积同比 | PVC内需 | 内需同比 | 累积内需 | 内需累积同比 | 社 库 | 厂 库 | 总库存 | 供需差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年1月 | 209.6 | | 2.31 | 28.0 | 25.72 | 183.9 | -0.73% | 183.9 | -0.73% | 190.8 | 0.22% | 190.8 | 0.22% ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2026年1月，PVC期货主力合约呈现"V型"反弹走势。上半月受差别电价政策预期扰动，价格高位盘整 后回落；下半月，随着市场情绪回暖及化工板块整体走强，资金大量注入，推动价格快速拉涨，主力 V2605合约最高触及5125元/吨，创近三个月新高。截至1月30日，V2605合约收于5063元/吨，月度涨幅 达5.37%，环比上涨258元/吨，振幅549点，市场波动显著加剧。 资金动向方面，市场活跃度急剧升温。V2605合约月度成交量大幅增加约1173.5万手至2843.3万手，持 仓量同步增加12.3万手至104.6万手，量仓均处同期高位，市场情绪有所好转，资金面持续推涨盘面估 值。 现货市场方面，国1月份内各地区市场价格均有所回升，基差有所收敛。截至2月2日，V2605合约基差 为-234元/吨，环比1月初增加50元/吨，期现联动回升特征显著。区域价格涨势基本同步：PVCSG-5常州 市场均价报4780元/吨，环比1月初上涨280元/吨，涨幅6.22%；PVCSG-5上海市场均价报4780元/吨，环 比1月初上涨290元/吨，涨幅6.46%，；华 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic PVC market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, with poor fundamentals. Although short - term electricity price expectations and the rush to export may support PVC prices, in the medium term, the strategy of short - selling on rallies should be adopted before substantial industry production cuts [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: Wuhai calcium carbide price is 2,400 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; Shandong calcium carbide price is 2,805 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan week - on - week; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 820 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has declined to a low level again, while the profit of ethylene - based production has increased, with the current valuation being moderately low [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 79.6%, unchanged from the previous week. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 80%, up 0.3% from the previous week; the ethylene method is 78.8%, down 0.8% from the previous week. The supply - side load was flat last week, with the loads of Fujian Wanhua, Yibin Tianyuan, and Salt Lake Magnesium Industry decreasing. The load is expected to decline next week. The overall load in January is still expected to be high, with a small reduction in production and high supply pressure [11]. - **Demand**: It is currently the off - season for exports, but the export tax rebate policy is planned to be cancelled on April 1st, leading to a short - term rush to export. The operating rates of the three major downstream sectors remained stable. The pipe load is 35.4%, unchanged from the previous week; the film load is 66.4%, unchanged from the previous week; the profile load is 29.9%, down 0.3% from the previous week. The overall downstream load is 43.9%, down 0.1% from the previous week, and the overall downstream operating rate is gradually entering the off - season. Last week, the PVC pre - sales volume was 92.6 million tons, up 1.7 million tons from the previous week [11]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the in - factory inventory was 31.1 million tons, with a destocking of 1.7 million tons from the previous week; the social inventory was 114.4 million tons, with a stockpiling of 3 million tons from the previous week; the overall inventory was 145.5 million tons, with a stockpiling of 1.3 million tons from the previous week; the number of warehouse receipts decreased. Currently, inventory is turning to stockpiling. In the context of strong supply and weak demand, domestic demand has entered the off - season. Short - term exports may surge due to the rush to export, but there is significant medium - term export pressure, making it difficult to digest the high production volume [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - The content mainly includes multiple charts such as PVC term structure, East China SG - 5 price, spot basis, 5 - 9 spread, active contract positions, trading volume, total positions, and total trading volume, showing the historical trends of these data from 2022 to 2026 [15][19][24][26] 3.3. Profit and Inventory - The content presents various charts related to inventory, including in - factory inventory, ethylene - based in - factory inventory, calcium carbide - based in - factory inventory, social inventory, the sum of factory and social inventories, and warehouse receipts, as well as charts related to profit, such as the comprehensive profit of Shandong's externally - purchased calcium carbide chlor - alkali integration, calcium carbide - based PVC profit, ethylene - based PVC profit, and Inner Mongolia calcium carbide profit, showing their historical trends from 2022 to 2026 [31][33][39][41] 3.4. Cost Side - **Calcium Carbide**: Calcium carbide prices in Wuhai and Shandong are presented in the chart, along with the inventory and operating rate of calcium carbide, showing their historical trends from 2022 to 2026. The calcium carbide price is currently stable [47][48] - **Other Raw Materials**: The chart shows the price trends of Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke, 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, liquid chlorine in Shandong, and Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price [55] 3.5. Supply Side - **Capacity**: The historical trend of PVC capacity and the PVC production capacity put into operation in 2025 are presented, including information on specific production facilities, production processes, production capacities, and commissioning times, with a total capacity of 2.5 million tons/year in 2025 [59][63] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of calcium carbide - based PVC, ethylene - based PVC, and overall PVC, as well as the weekly PVC production volume, are presented, showing their historical trends from 2022 to 2026 [68][69] 3.6. Demand Side - **Domestic Demand**: The operating rates of PVC downstream sectors such as pipes, films, and profiles are presented, showing their historical trends from 2022 to 2026. The overall downstream operating rate is gradually entering the off - season, with the pipe load at 35.4%, the film load at 66.4%, the profile load at 29.9%, and the overall downstream load at 43.9% [74][75] - **Export Demand**: The export volume of PVC, the export volume to India, and the pre - sales volume are presented, showing their historical trends. Currently, it is the off - season for exports, but the export tax rebate policy cancellation on April 1st will lead to a short - term rush to export [77][82] - **Related Indicators**: The chart shows the rolling cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's housing completion area, which is related to PVC demand [84]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of PVC is weak. After April, the export is expected to decline significantly, and the supply - demand relationship of subsequent contracts will be further relaxed. The supply of domestic PVC is abundant, the downstream starts are generally flat, the inventory is increasing, and the cost - side profit is still low year - on - year. The supply - demand of caustic soda is also weak, with inventory accumulation in Shandong and Jiangsu, high overall supply - side start, and general downstream receiving sentiment [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4940 yuan/ton (+43), the East China basis is - 320 yuan/ton (- 43), and the South China basis is - 310 yuan/ton (- 43). - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method is quoted at 4620 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide method is quoted at 4630 yuan/ton (+0). - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 750 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2805 yuan/ton (+25), the calcium carbide profit is - 85 yuan/ton (+25), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit is - 634 yuan/ton (+80), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit is - 192 yuan/ton (+87), and the PVC export profit is - 18.2 US dollars/ton (+3.8). - Inventory and start - up: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 32.8 tons (+1.9), the social inventory is 54.6 tons (+2.1), the calcium carbide method start - up rate is 80.23% (+2.00%), the ethylene method start - up rate is 75.69% (+0.41%), and the overall start - up rate is 78.85% (+1.51%). - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 90.9 tons (+9.4) [1]. Market Analysis - The export tax rebate for PVC will be cancelled from April 1st, and there may be a situation of rushing to export. The export orders still have resilience, which is beneficial to the contracts before April. The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market is weak. The supply is abundant, the downstream start is generally flat, and there is an expectation of further decline in the future. The inventory is increasing slightly and is at a high level year - on - year. The cost - side profit is still low year - on - year, and the pressure of hedging on the disk still exists. After April, the export is expected to decline significantly, and the supply - demand relationship of subsequent contracts will be further relaxed [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - delivery: Go long V03 - 05 at low prices - Inter - commodity: None [4] Caustic Soda Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2180 yuan/ton (- 44), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 30 yuan/ton (+44). - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 688 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1080 yuan/ton (+0). - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1125 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 557.8 yuan/ton (+40.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 239.20 yuan/ton (- 35.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 554.50 yuan/ton (- 50.00). - Inventory and start - up: The factory inventory of liquid caustic soda is 49.51 tons (+0.94), the factory inventory of flake caustic soda is 3.08 tons (+0.06), and the start - up rate of caustic soda is 86.80% (+0.40%). - Downstream start - up: The start - up rate of alumina is 85.74% (+1.07%), the start - up rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 60.09% (- 0.72%), and the start - up rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.43% (+3.38%) [1][2]. Market Analysis - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline, and is weak due to the influence of low - price warehouse receipts. The macro - sentiment has subsided, and the disk has oscillated and corrected. The draft for soliciting opinions on differential electricity prices in Shaanxi has raised the cost expectation, but the impact is small. The supply - demand of caustic soda is weak, with inventory accumulation in Shandong and Jiangsu. The overall supply - side start is at a high level, the demand - side receiving sentiment is general, and the export orders continue to be sluggish [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish - Inter - delivery: Go short SH03 - 05 at high prices - Inter - commodity: None [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that PVC is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, rated as "oscillating" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - sentiment has subsided, and the PVC futures price is oscillating at the bottom. The supply - demand fundamentals show a pattern of oversupply. Although downstream demand has slightly improved, it is still at a low level. The cost - side support is insufficient, and the export is affected by policies and competition, making it difficult to increase significantly [3][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish. The domestic PVC spot market has a narrow adjustment, with an oversupply pattern. The PVC supply has increased slightly due to maintenance, and the production enterprise capacity utilization rate is 80.75%, a 2.49% increase from the previous period. The maintenance loss volume is 4.323 tons, a decrease of 0.684 tons from the previous period [3] - **Demand**: It is bearish. The downstream demand has slightly improved, but the downstream start - up is still at a low level. The start - up rate of PVC pipe sample enterprises is 42%, a 0.8% increase from last week. The start - up rate of PVC profile enterprises has increased by 1.96%. The capacity utilization rate of PVC gloves is stable at 41.28%. The export from January to September has increased, with a cumulative export of 292.16 tons [3] - **Inventory**: It is neutral. As of November 6, the PVC social inventory has increased by 1.13% to 104.16 tons, with an increase of 26.42% year - on - year. The inventory in the East China region has increased, while that in the South China region has decreased [3] - **Basis**: It is neutral. The basis has weakened significantly, currently at - 111 yuan/ton [3] - **Profit**: It is bullish. The profits of both PVC production processes have decreased. The average profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC production enterprises is - 769 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton from the previous period. The average profit of ethylene - based PVC production enterprises is - 465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous period [3] - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, the disk is oscillating weakly, and the valuation is neutral [3] - **Macro - policy**: It is neutral. The anti - involution sentiment in the energy - chemical sector has temporarily subsided, but there are many subsequent macro - events [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to short at high levels; for arbitrage, there is no recommendation [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The PVC powder market has oscillated weakly this week. The supply is still at a high level, the demand is weak, and the cost - side support is insufficient. The spot prices in different regions are: 4600 - 4680 yuan/ton in East China, 4650 - 4710 yuan/ton in South China, 4420 - 4550 yuan/ton in Hebei, and 4580 - 4640 yuan/ton in Shandong [6] 3.3 PVC Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Output**: After the end of maintenance, the output in the Northwest has rebounded [35] - **Domestic Inventory**: The factory inventory has decreased, while the social inventory has increased. Factories in various regions have reduced their inventory [43][53] - **Downstream Start - up Rate**: The average downstream start - up rate has increased slightly, with the pipe start - up rate at 42% and the profile start - up rate at 37.83% [3][67] - **Export**: The export peak season is approaching, but the export has slowed down. There is still profit space for PVC exports, but it is difficult to increase the volume due to policies and competition [75][77]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the PVC industry are weak, with a pattern of strong supply and weak demand in China. The export outlook is turning weaker, and domestic demand is poor, making it difficult to reverse the situation of oversupply. - In the short - term, the valuation has declined to a low level, but it still cannot support the supply - demand situation that is weaker than in the first half of the year. The slowdown in inventory accumulation and the strong sentiment in the black market are supporting prices. - In the medium - term, there are opportunities for short - selling on rallies, as the supply - demand pattern is expected to be poor after the new device is put into production, and real estate demand continues to decline. [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: Wuhai calcium carbide price is 2,500 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton week - on - week; Shandong calcium carbide price is 2,830 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 800 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton week - on - week. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration continues to be low, and the profit of ethylene - based production is running at a low level, with a currently neutral - to - low valuation. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 76.6%, down 0.1% month - on - month. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 74.4%, down 0.3% month - on - month, and the ethylene method is 81.6%, up 0.4% month - on - month. The supply - side load decreased slightly last week due to maintenance at some companies. It is expected to rebound next week, and the overall load in October is expected to remain high, with multiple new devices expected to start trial production. - **Demand**: In terms of exports, the anti - dumping tax rate in India is expected to be implemented in November, which is expected to lead to a decline in exports. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries rebounded last week, with the overall downstream load rising by 1.3% to 49.9%. The PVC pre - sales volume last week was 63.5 tons, up 8 tons week - on - week. - **Inventory**: Last week, the in - plant inventory was 33.4 tons, down 2.7 tons week - on - week; the social inventory was 103.5 tons, up 0.1 tons week - on - week; the overall inventory was 136.9 tons, down 2.5 tons week - on - week; the number of warehouse receipts continued to increase. It is still in the inventory accumulation cycle, and the inventory is gradually shifting from upstream to mid - stream. [11] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market The content mainly presents various charts related to the PVC futures and spot market, including the term structure, spot basis, 1 - 5 spread, prices, trading volume, and open interest of active contracts and total contracts from 2021 to 2025, but no specific analysis or summary is provided in the text. [15][16][18][26][28] 3.3. Profit and Inventory - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased this week, and the warehouse receipts are at a high level. The in - plant inventory and social inventory data from 2021 to 2025 are presented through charts, showing the trends of different types of inventories. [33][40] - **Profit**: The profit data of different production methods of PVC from 2021 to 2025 are presented through charts, including the profit of calcium carbide - based PVC, ethylene - based PVC, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration in Shandong. [41] 3.4. Cost Side - Calcium carbide prices have a slight rebound. The prices of Wuhai and Shandong calcium carbide, calcium carbide inventory, and calcium carbide operating rate from 2021 to 2025 are presented through charts. - Other cost - related factors such as the price of semi - coke, 32% liquid caustic soda, liquid chlorine, and Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price from 2021 to 2025 are also presented through charts. [47][48][50][54] 3.5. Supply Side - In 2025, the capacity investment in the PVC industry is relatively large, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. The historical trend of PVC capacity, the planned production capacity in 2025, and the raw materials required for production in different quarters are presented through charts and tables. - The operating rates of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC from 2021 to 2025 are presented through charts, showing the trends of production capacity utilization. [57][59][61][63][64][65][70] 3.6. Demand Side - The operating rates of the three major downstream industries of PVC have rebounded. The operating rates of PVC film, profiles, and pipes from 2021 to 2025 are presented through charts. - The export volume of PVC, the export volume to India, pre - sales volume, and the rolling cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's housing completion area are presented through charts, reflecting the demand situation from different aspects. [73][77][82][85][87][89]

Group 1 - The domestic PVC powder market shows a strong price adjustment today, with mainstream market prices increasing by 0-15 yuan/ton [1] - The overall operating rate of PVC powder this week is 75.14%, a decrease of 5.66 percentage points from last week [2] - Social inventory of PVC as of October 9 has increased by 5.58% to 1.0363 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 23.53% [2] Group 2 - Supply and demand pressures remain significant, with both futures and spot prices trending weakly [3] - The demand side shows no significant performance during the peak season, indicating a lack of robust demand from downstream product companies [3] - Cost factors indicate that the price of raw material calcium carbide is expected to rise initially and then fall, while ethylene prices may remain firm [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is stagnant. The main influencing factors include the cost changes of calcium carbide and ethylene methods, supply and demand dynamics, and inventory levels. The PVC2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 4860 - 4922. [8][12] - Bullish factors: Supply restart, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and favorable export conditions. [11] - Bearish factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand. [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a 3.43% month - on - month increase. This week, the supply pressure decreased. The overall downstream start - up rate was 49.26%, a 0.76 - percentage - point month - on - month increase, but still below the historical average. The current demand may remain sluggish. [6][9] - **Basis**: On September 23, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4790 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 101 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. [9] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 306,239 tons, a 1.20% month - on - month decrease. Social inventory was 534,600 tons, a 0.56% month - on - month increase. [9] - **Market**: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20. The main positions were net short, and short positions increased. [9] - **Expectation**: It is expected that the scheduled production will increase. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends. [8] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents the previous day's PVC market data, including prices, spreads, inventory, start - up rates, profits, and costs of different regions and varieties. For example, the price of East China SG - 5 decreased by 0.83% month - on - month to 4790 yuan/ton. [15] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the historical basis trend of PVC, including the relationship between the basis, East China market price, and the main contract closing price. [17][18] - **Price and Volume**: It shows the price, trading volume, and position changes of the PVC futures main contract from August to September 2025. [21] - **Spread Analysis**: It presents the historical spread trends of different contract months of PVC futures, such as the 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 spreads in 2024 and 2025. [23][24] 3.4 PVC Fundamentals - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It includes the price, cost, profit, start - up rate, and inventory data of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method production process. For example, the profit of the calcium carbide method was - 657.2513 yuan/ton, with a 30.80% month - on - month increase in losses. [6][35] - **Supply Trend**: The current capacity utilization rate of calcium carbide method enterprises is 76.96%, a 0.04 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease. The production of calcium carbide method enterprises was 328,605 tons, a 3.14% month - on - month decrease, and that of ethylene method enterprises was 132,310 tons, a 5.16% month - on - month decrease. [6] - **Demand Trend**: It shows the downstream start - up rates of PVC, such as the profile start - up rate of 39.43%, a 0.21 - percentage - point month - on - month increase, and the pipe start - up rate of 39.13%, a 0.52 - percentage - point month - on - month increase. [9] - **Inventory**: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days. [60][61] - **Ethylene Method**: It presents data on imports of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC exports, and price spreads in the ethylene method. [63] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC from July 2024 to August 2025, including imports, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and exports. [66]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - V2601 oscillated weakly, closing at 4999 yuan/ton. This week, the restart of maintenance devices is expected to increase production and capacity utilization, while more PVC production plans in August will add long - term supply pressure. Domestic product orders are insufficient, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase at low prices. The weak real estate market drags down domestic demand, and the Indian anti - dumping policy will exacerbate the supply - demand contradiction and put pressure on prices. Technically, V2601 should pay attention to the support around 4900 and the pressure around 5100 [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4999 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton; the trading volume was 736,194 lots, a decrease of 351,932 lots; the open interest was 1,057,318 lots, an increase of 49,158 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 853,070 lots, an increase of 1,523 lots; the short position was 934,697 lots, an increase of 19,110 lots; the net long position was - 81,627 lots, a decrease of 17,587 lots [3] 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5040 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4790.77 yuan/ton, an increase of 28.46 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4985 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4891.88 yuan/ton, an increase of 34.38 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China was 725 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 680 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 229 yuan/ton, an increase of 48 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2573.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.33 yuan/ton; in Northwest China, it was 2398 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 575 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East was 521 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia was 548 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East was 181 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia was 189 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 77.61%, a decrease of 2.72%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 76.81%, a decrease of 3.15%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 79.59%, a decrease of 1.67%. The total social inventory of PVC was 508,000 tons, an increase of 15,200 tons. The total inventory in the East China region was 450,200 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons; the total inventory in the South China region was 57,800 tons, an increase of 200 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.34, a decrease of 0.26. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 352.06 million square meters, an increase of 48.4168 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.38731 billion square meters, an increase of 54.0957 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 281.0593 billion yuan, an increase of 36.3043 billion yuan [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 12.24%, a decrease of 0.28%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 21.67%, a decrease of 0.12%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 15.2%, a decrease of 0.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 15.21%, a decrease of 0.01% [3] 3.7 Industry News - On August 26, the market price of PVCSG5 in Shanghai, Changzhou, and Hangzhou was 0 - 20 yuan/ton higher than the previous day, ranging from 4740 to 4840 yuan/ton. From August 16 to August 22, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 77.61%, a decrease of 2.72% from the previous period. As of August 21, PVC social inventory increased by 5.09% to 852,700 tons month - on - month and decreased by 6.50% year - on - year [3]

Group 1 - The global PVC market is facing challenges in the second half of 2025 due to demand growth not keeping pace with capacity expansion, particularly in Asia [2] - The impact of US tariffs on PVC products is exacerbating the weak fundamentals of the PVC market [2] - India's PVC market is under scrutiny due to delayed import certification requirements and an impending anti-dumping tax investigation, which may alter regional trade flows [2][3] Group 2 - In Asia, PVC production capacity continues to increase despite weak demand, leading manufacturers to consider reducing operating rates to address oversupply [3] - The postponement of BIS certification in India may lead to a potential recovery in PVC demand, but there are mixed opinions on its impact on pricing and trade flows [3] - Qatar's new PVC plant is expected to start production in September, with Europe likely being the main export market due to higher profit margins compared to India [3] Group 3 - The European PVC market may see more shutdowns in the second half of 2025 due to persistent weak demand and competitive import prices, particularly affecting smaller, less integrated PVC plants [4] - Germany may show positive signs with a government commitment of €500 billion for infrastructure and climate transition, which could boost PVC demand [4] - Traders are expected to continue exporting Asian goods to Europe, with Italy and Spain remaining key markets for Asian supplies [4] Group 4 - The US PVC market outlook is mixed, facing challenges from strong Asian price competition and a sluggish domestic housing market [5] - The export prices of PVC from Asia and the US are closely aligned, leading to direct competition in the global import market [5] - Brazil's import tariffs have shifted the competitive landscape, resulting in decreased export volumes from both the US and Asia [5]