Burford Capital (NYSE:BUR) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 26, 2026 09:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsChristopher Bogart - CEOJonathan Molot - Chief Investment OfficerJordan Licht - CFOJosh Wood - Head of Investor RelationsMichael Piccolo - Senior Vice President of Event-Driven EquitiesConference Call ParticipantsMark DeVries - Managing Director and Senior Equity Research AnalystTimothy D'Agostino - Research AnalystOperatorThank you for standing by. My name is Bailey. I will be your conference operator today. ...

Bancolombia (NYSE:CIB) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 24, 2026 09:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsAndrés Soto - Executive Director and Market StrategistBrian Flores - VP in Equity ResearchCarlos Gómez-López - Head of Latin America Financials ResearchErnesto Gabilondo - Director of Latin American Financial InstitutionsJuan Carlos Mora - CEOLaura Clavijo - Chief EconomistMauricio Botero Wolff - Chief Strategy and Financial OfficerYuri Fernandes - Executive Director in Equity ResearchConference Call ParticipantsA ...

当下投资银行股的机会成本仍然不高。数据显示，目前10年期国债收益率1.80%，仍处在历 史地位；银行股股息接近4.4%，较10年期国债收益率有2.6个百分点的溢价 商业银行的净利润正在较大范围地回暖，这体现在近期公布的10余家银行业绩快报中。 截至2026年2月12日，已有12家上市银行公布了2025年业绩快报，除华夏银行，其他各家净利润均实现 正增长：青岛银行的归母净利润同比增幅超过20%，齐鲁银行、杭州银行、浦发银行的归母净利润增幅 同比也在10%以上。而华夏银行归母净利润则比2024年末下降1.72%。 相比之下，2025年前三季度，商业银行累计实现净利润1.87万亿元，同比下降0.02%。其中，国有大 行、城商行、民营银行的净利润增速分别是2.27%、1.73%和7.09%；全国性股份制银行、农商行和外资 行净利润则同比下降，降幅分别为2.1%、7.36%和19.34%。 整体来看，商业银行的净利润正在迎来回暖。数据显示，2025年商业银行累计实现净利润为2.4万亿 元，较2024年末的2.3万亿元有所上升。2025年前三季度，商业银行累计实现净利润1.87万亿元，同比下 降0.02%，降幅较上半年有 ...

Market Overview - The Dow is experiencing gains, aiming for a third consecutive record close, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ show mixed performance with slight declines [1][2][8]. - The S&P 500 equal-weighted index and small-cap indices like the S&P 600 are reaching record highs, indicating strong performance in broader market segments [3]. - Bond yields are decreasing, with the 10-year yield down to 4.14% and the 30-year yield at 4.79%, suggesting a shift in investor sentiment towards bonds [4]. Sector Performance - Utilities and real estate sectors are leading the market, with utilities up approximately 2.3% and real estate up about 1.5%, reflecting their sensitivity to interest rates [5]. - Financials, technology, and healthcare sectors are underperforming, indicating a potential shift in investor focus away from these areas [5][6]. AI and Technology Insights - The AI sector is entering a new phase, with companies increasingly relying on debt for capital expenditures rather than free cash flow, as seen in major firms like Google and Amazon [9][10]. - Investors are currently accepting of big tech companies taking on debt to finance AI developments, but there is a growing concern about the return on investment (ROI) and whether these expenditures will yield positive results in the future [12][14]. - The competitive landscape in AI is evolving, with uncertainty about which companies will emerge as leaders, prompting a cautious approach from investors [16][17]. Alphabet's Bond Offering - Alphabet is raising approximately $32 billion through multiple bond deals, including a rare 100-year bond, to finance its AI infrastructure buildout despite having substantial cash reserves [20][21]. - The demand for long-term bonds from companies like Alphabet indicates a shift in investment strategies, with institutional investors seeking stable, long-term returns [21]. Tax Implications for Big Tech - Major tech companies like Amazon and Meta are projected to see significant reductions in their tax bills for 2025, attributed to favorable tax provisions and credits related to AI investments and capital expenditures [22][23]. - This reduction in tax liabilities is expected to positively impact their bottom lines, although it may attract public scrutiny regarding their tax practices [23]. Job Market and Economic Outlook - The upcoming jobs report is anticipated to show a modest increase in employment, with projections around 70,000 new jobs added, but the White House is preparing for potential criticism if the numbers fall short of expectations [22][23]. - The labor market is described as stable, with sluggish hiring but no significant increase in layoffs, indicating a cautious economic environment [22].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net income for the 9-month period was JPY 389.7 billion, an increase of JPY 117.9 billion year-over-year, marking the highest third-quarter cumulative net profit ever [2] - Pre-tax profits reached JPY 567.7 billion, up by JPY 184.3 billion year-over-year, with all three categories of finance, operation, and investments showing profit growth [3] - Shareholder returns were enhanced with an expansion of the share buyback program from JPY 100 billion to JPY 150 billion, with JPY 128.1 billion completed by the end of January [3] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Finance segment profits increased by 8% year-over-year to JPY 145.5 billion, driven by growth in investment income and finance revenues in Australia and Asia [4] - Operation segment profit rose by 17% to JPY 189.5 billion, supported by gains from airport concessions and real estate operations [4][5] - Investment segment profits surged by 100% year-over-year to JPY 261.4 billion, significantly boosted by gains from the sale of Greenko shares and other investments [6][7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The environment energy segment profit increased by JPY 109.1 billion year-over-year, reaching JPY 122.2 billion, primarily due to gains on the sale of Greenko Energy Holdings [17] - The insurance segment profit rose by 20% year-over-year to JPY 74.1 billion, driven by expansion in investment assets and portfolio securities [18] - The banking and credit segment profit decreased by JPY 2.2 billion year-over-year to JPY 19.9 billion, impacted by rising funding costs and credit losses [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to drive sustainable growth and improve capital efficiency while maintaining its full-year net income forecast [8] - Organizational reforms were announced to restructure into three business divisions, although the current fiscal year will continue under the existing 10-segment framework [11] - The company is focusing on capital recycling, with JPY 196.6 billion in capital gains and ongoing investments in operations and PE investments [9][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the domestic economy's growth and the performance of various segments, including automotive and IT [42][43] - There is caution regarding the impact of rising interest rates and potential credit losses, with a focus on maintaining financial soundness [51][54] - The management is committed to evaluating business plans regularly to ensure alignment with capital efficiency and profitability goals [45][72] Other Important Information - The company has made significant investments in AI infrastructure and logistics facilities, indicating a strategic focus on technology and operational efficiency [10] - The impact of inbound tourism on earnings is being monitored, particularly concerning the decline in Chinese passenger numbers [24][25] - The company is actively managing its portfolio to mitigate risks associated with legacy assets and market fluctuations [21][22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Details on ORIX USA and Hilco Global integration - Management confirmed that valuation gains from ORIX Capital Partners were significant and that a 100-day plan for Hilco Global is being executed to enhance collaboration [35][36] Question: Overall progress and performance against the plan - Management highlighted strong performance in investments and operations, with expectations for continued growth despite potential challenges in the fourth quarter [41][44] Question: Clarification on U.S. valuation gains - Management indicated that the strong performance of U.S. investees, particularly in technology, contributed positively to the overall results [46][80] Question: Cost considerations for the fourth quarter - Management acknowledged potential credit costs and emphasized a cautious approach to project evaluations, particularly regarding Erawan [49][52] Question: Changes in employed capital ratio and risk appetite - Management explained that the employed capital ratio was recalibrated for more detailed risk assessment, with no direct impact on risk appetite [58][60] Question: Capital gains and base profit disclosures - Management clarified that capital gains were not incorporated in the same manner as before, focusing instead on base profit growth [66][67] Question: Future plans for profit growth and ROE targets - Management emphasized the importance of capital efficiency and the potential for continued profit growth, with a focus on high-quality investments [71][72]

Core Viewpoint - The investment philosophy emphasizes long-term value creation over short-term market trends, with a focus on Return on Equity (ROE) as the key metric for assessing a company's intrinsic value and long-term returns [1][15][16] Investment Philosophy - The investment framework is characterized by a disciplined approach that avoids chasing short-term market fads and instead focuses on the fundamental logic of corporate profit generation [1][15] - ROE is viewed as the "North Star" for understanding a company's essence and driving long-term returns, with a focus on the sustainability and quality of profit growth [1][16] - The investment strategy aims to overcome common behavioral biases in investing through a systematic process, ensuring that investment performance is explainable, predictable, and sustainable [14][17] Market Dynamics - A significant "re-rating" cycle for Chinese stocks is underway, driven by three key factors: the enhancement of technological competitiveness, the improvement of the risk environment, and supportive government policies [18][19] - The rise in technological competitiveness has instilled greater confidence in the future of the Chinese economy, leading to a reassessment of corporate long-term profit potential [18][19] - The improvement in the risk environment allows for better quantification of risks, reducing emotional shocks and valuation discounts in the market [19] Investment Opportunities - The focus is on three main investment themes: artificial intelligence, robotics, and commercial aerospace, which are seen as pivotal in the current economic landscape [20] - In artificial intelligence, the investment focus has shifted from general model competition to specific applications that generate clear business models and cash flows [21] - The robotics sector presents opportunities in core hardware and decision-making AI, with expectations of rapid growth in industrial and commercial applications [21][22] - Commercial aerospace is viewed as a future industry with high barriers to entry, requiring identification of companies that achieve breakthroughs in key technologies and hold significant orders [22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qilu Bank is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Qilu Bank reported a revenue growth of 5.12% year-on-year and a net profit attributable to shareholders growth of 14.58% for 2025, indicating accelerated revenue growth and improved net interest margin [5][6] - The bank's net interest income for 2025 reached 10.519 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.48% [5] - The asset quality indicators have shown continuous improvement for seven consecutive years, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.05% at the end of 2025, down 4 basis points from the end of Q3 2025 [5] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - Qilu Bank's stock performance over the last 12 months shows a 7.4% increase, while the CSI 300 index increased by 23.1% [4] - The current stock price is 5.92 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 36.43 billion yuan [4] Financial Metrics - For 2025, the bank's total assets grew by 16.65%, loans by 13.55%, and deposits by 11.37% compared to 2024 [5] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) for 2025 is 12.17%, a slight decrease of 0.35 percentage points year-on-year [5] Earnings Forecast - Revenue growth forecasts for 2025-2027 are 5.12%, 11.26%, and 10.99% respectively, while net profit growth forecasts are 14.58%, 17.44%, and 10.74% [6] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.11 yuan, 1.32 yuan, and 1.47 yuan respectively [6] Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 5.32x, 4.49x, and 4.03x respectively, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratios are expected to be 0.65x, 0.59x, and 0.53x [6][7]

市场策略丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 红马奔腾策略系列 1：从老红利到新红马之投资 范式 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 目前部分机构资产回报率承压，核心原因在于负债端久期长、成本刚性，而低利率环境下，固 收类资产收益率下行，权益类的传统红利投资股息下降，较难覆盖负债端成本。投资思路：预 期回报率高（3%~5%以上）、安全边际高（行业格局和估值企稳）的方向值得关注。1）寻找 未来股息率高的方向：通过分红率的提高来提供较高的股息水平，直接增厚股息回报；2）同时 估值不应大幅下滑：具有安全边际，避免因资本利得大幅损失（如股价下跌）抵消股息收益， 重点关注供给收缩/行业出清到尾声的细分行业。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 28 %% %% %% %% 关注自由现金流和稳住 ROE 是分红潜力的关键。一是从理论出发，稳定的自由现金流是保障 潜在股息率提升的重要基础，其通过影响利润与估值，提供持续的 ...

Group 1 - The core conclusion of the report is that there is a relative misalignment in ROE levels between A-shares and US stocks, with US stocks at historical highs and A-shares recovering from a bottom [2][12] - The primary reasons for the ROE misalignment are the divergence in net profit margins and asset turnover rates between A-shares and US stocks [2][17] Group 2 - Net profit margin is identified as the most critical factor influencing the strong ROE in US stocks, with A-shares experiencing a gradual decline in net profit margins [3][20] - A-shares' net profit margin decreased from 5.8% to 3.9%, a change rate of -32.2%, while US stocks' net profit margin increased from 7.3% to 8.6%, a change rate of +17.7% [20][22] - The asset turnover rate for A-shares has also declined significantly, from 87% to 60%, while US stocks' turnover rate remained relatively stable [20][43] Group 3 - The leverage ratio for US stocks is significantly higher than that of A-shares, with US stocks maintaining a stable leverage ratio around 460% [5][56] - A-shares' leverage ratio is expected to rise slowly but will remain significantly lower than that of US stocks due to different corporate financing strategies [59][60] Group 4 - The report emphasizes that the long-term trend of A-shares' ROE will improve, driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" which aims for high-quality development and increased corporate profitability [6][62] - The focus on technological innovation and the establishment of a unified national market are expected to enhance the profitability of A-share companies, leading to a systematic improvement in ROE [62][64]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Financials - **Outlook**: The industry view is considered attractive, with expectations of a steadily improving market environment and supportive regulatory backdrop for brokers in 2026 [4][72]. Core Insights - **Market Performance**: Brokers are expected to perform well into the first half of 2026 as investors anticipate rising fundraising and institutional business volume [4]. - **Investor Focus**: There is an expectation that investor interests will concentrate on firms with stronger capabilities to leverage favorable market conditions to generate higher Return on Equity (ROE) and consolidate market share [4]. - **Regulatory Changes**: Potential further relaxation of leverage for large brokers is anticipated, as indicated by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) [6]. - **IPO Activity**: High-profile IPOs and an observable acceleration in monthly IPO volume are expected in the first quarter of 2026, with a modest upside surprise anticipated [6]. Company-Specific Insights - **China International Capital Corp. Ltd. (3908.HK)**: - Expected to benefit from potential relaxation of leverage and short-sell regulations in the second quarter of 2026 [6]. - **CITIC Securities Co. (600030.SS)**: - Similar expectations regarding leverage relaxation and short-sell regulations as with China International Capital Corp. [6]. - **GF Securities (1776.HK)**: - Also expected to benefit from the same regulatory relaxations and potential M&A activity in the broker sector [6]. Valuation Methodology - **GF Securities**: - The target Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio is set at 0.76x, based on a base case assumption of A-share total Average Daily Turnover (ADT) of Rmb1.62 trillion for 2026 and IPOs of Rmb380 billion [7]. - **CITIC Securities**: - Similar P/B ROE regression analysis is applied, with a focus on a higher ROE assumption in the base case [8][9]. Risks - **Upside Risks**: - Faster-than-expected macro recovery, large shareholders raising stakes, and sooner-than-expected growth in asset management fee income [10][11]. - **Downside Risks**: - Slower-than-expected economic recovery, geopolitical risks, and potential cooling of ADT [10][11]. Additional Considerations - **M&A Activity**: More mergers and acquisitions in the broker sector are anticipated, which could lead to a modest upside surprise [6]. - **Demand for Active Equity Funds**: A pick-up in demand for active equity funds is expected in the first quarter of 2026, contributing to market dynamics [6]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the outlook for the China financial sector, specific company insights, valuation methodologies, and associated risks.