Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing volatility, with major indices opening lower, indicating a cautious sentiment among investors [1] Group 1: Market Overview - The three major A-share indices opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.56% and the ChiNext Index down 1.74% [1] - Sectors such as storage chips, CPO, phosphorus chemicals, and non-ferrous metals are leading the declines [1] Group 2: Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities suggests increasing positions in chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and electric new energy as a better choice, emphasizing the importance of stable corporate overseas environments and AI developments [2] - The report indicates that over 60% of institutional holdings are concentrated in sectors influenced by AI narratives, and it recommends focusing on companies with rising ROE from low points [2] Group 3: Sector Recommendations - China Merchants Securities identifies non-ferrous metals, steel, and building materials as cyclical sectors to consider for investment, driven by expectations of a cyclical upturn in 2026 [3] - The report highlights that price increases in commodities are concentrated in coal, non-ferrous metals, certain chemicals, and the renewable energy sector [3] Group 4: Recovery Opportunities - Industrial Securities emphasizes the importance of cyclical sectors like steel, chemicals, and building materials, while also exploring low-position technology growth opportunities [4] - The report notes that the tightening of overseas liquidity is unlikely to lead to systemic risks, and A-shares may remain resilient under stable economic and policy expectations [4] Group 5: Future Trends - CITIC Construction Investment predicts that resource products may become a new main investment direction in A-shares following the technology sector, with a focus on key resources and military industry [5] - The report highlights sectors such as new energy, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and military equipment as key areas of interest for future investment [5]

Core Insights - The company reported record core earnings and double-digit growth in core EPS for the third quarter ending September 30, 2025 [1][2] - Core earnings reached CAD 2 billion, a 10% increase compared to the third quarter of 2024 when adjusted for constant currency [1] - The net income attributable to shareholders was CAD 1.8 billion, remaining stable compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Financial Performance - Core EPS was CAD 1.16, reflecting a 16% increase from the third quarter of 2024, while EPS was CAD 1.02, a 2% increase [1] - The core ROE stood at 18.1%, compared to 16.0% in the previous year [1] - The LICAT ratio was reported at 138% [1] Business Growth - APE sales increased by 8% year-over-year, while new business CSM grew by 25% and new business value increased by 11% [1] - Despite experiencing net outflows of CAD 6.2 billion in global wealth and asset management, the core EBITDA margin continued to expand [2] - The company successfully acquired Comvest Credit Partners and reached an agreement to acquire Schroders' Indonesia business, enhancing service capabilities and client offerings [2] Strategic Direction - The updated strategy aims to strengthen confidence in achieving the 2027 goals and solidify the company's position as a leading diversified financial services firm headquartered in Canada [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company raised its net profit forecast from JPY 380 billion to JPY 440 billion, reflecting strong performance across all business categories [4][14] - Net income for the first half reached JPY 271.1 billion, a record high and an increase of 48% year-on-year [13][14] - ROE for the first half was annualized at 12.7%, up from 8.8% in the previous fiscal year [20][14] - The four-year ROE forecast was increased to 10.3%, up by 1.3% compared to the previous year [16][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Finance segment profit increased by 8% year-on-year to JPY 99.6 billion, driven by strong gross investment income [18][14] - Operation segment profit rose by 9% year-on-year to JPY 114.9 billion, benefiting from inbound tourism demand [18][14] - Investment segment profit surged by 117% year-on-year to JPY 194.9 billion, largely due to the sale of Greenko Energy and other assets [19][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total group AUM reached JPY 88 trillion, moving closer to the medium-term target of JPY 100 trillion [10][16] - The company reported a significant increase in financial income from leases and loans in Asia and Australia [18][14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to achieve a long-term vision of 15% ROE and JPY 1 trillion in net profit by March 2035 [3][4] - A new PE fund was established in collaboration with the Qatar Investment Authority, targeting investments in Japanese companies [5][4] - The Osaka Integrated Resort project is set to open around fall 2030, with construction costs revised upwards due to inflation [8][4] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving midterm business plans and long-term vision through disciplined portfolio management and capital recycling [11][4] - The company is closely monitoring the impact of rising interest rates and inflation on its operations and asset management [52][14] Other Important Information - The share buyback program was expanded from JPY 100 billion to JPY 150 billion, with JPY 78 billion already repurchased [15][14] - The company is transitioning to an asset-light portfolio to enhance corporate value and improve capital efficiency [10][14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Inquiry about joint investment with QIA - Management explained that the joint PE fund with QIA was established after two years of negotiation, aiming to leverage third-party funds for larger projects without significantly bloating the balance sheet [40][42][44] Question: ROE target and initiatives to achieve it - Management acknowledged the need for initiatives to achieve the 11% ROE target, emphasizing the importance of monitoring interest rates and capital management [49][52] Question: Outlook for next year's profit forecast - Management indicated that while the current year has seen significant one-off gains, they expect to maintain a steady profit growth trajectory moving forward [56][60][75] Question: Capital recycling forecast and segment profit balance - Management clarified that the capital gain forecast for the year is on track, with expectations for solid performance in the real estate market and private equity portfolio [64][66] Question: Concerns about potential impairments and next year's business plan - Management reassured that while there may be fluctuations in profit, they do not foresee significant impairments and are optimistic about next year's performance [70][72][75]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **US Equity Market**, particularly the **S&P 500** index and its performance outlook for 2025 and 2026 [3][5][9]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Outlook**: The initial view for the S&P 500 was a flat first half of 2025, followed by improvement in the second half due to the resolution of Trump administration policy uncertainties. The target for year-end 2025 is set at **6600**, with a mid-2026 target of **6900** [3][4]. - **Earnings Projections**: Projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are **$272** and **$308**, respectively, which are above the current consensus estimates [3][6]. - **Tariff Impact**: The worst-case tariff impacts have been mitigated, aided by recent tax reforms, allowing for a higher terminal multiple in valuations [3][4]. - **Bull/Bear Scenarios**: - **Bull Case**: A tech/AI-led surge could push the index to **7200** by year-end 2025. - **Bear Case**: A severe tariff policy could see the index drop to **5600** [5][9]. Sector and Industry Recommendations - **Overweight Sectors**: Financials, Information Technology, Utilities. - **Underweight Sectors**: Consumer Staples, Industrials, Health Care [11]. - **Industry Group Recommendations**: - Overweight: Banks, Semiconductors, Software & Services. - Underweight: Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail, Health Care Equipment & Services [11]. AI and Technology Influence - **AI Growth**: Nearly half of the S&P 500 market cap is attributed to companies involved in AI, either as adopters or enablers. This sector is expected to drive significant EPS growth [9][38]. - **AI Revenue Projections**: Total AI service revenue is projected to grow from **$7.252 billion** in 2024 to **$975.258 billion** by 2030, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of **86%** [126][129]. Valuation Metrics - **P/E Ratios**: Current P/E for the S&P 500 is **25.2x**, with expectations for it to hold near current levels as policy headwinds fade [40][119]. - **PEG Ratios**: The PEG ratio for AI-related stocks is significantly higher than non-AI tech, indicating a premium valuation for growth expectations [55][124]. Sentiment and Positioning - **Levkovich Index**: The index indicates a state of euphoria in the market, historically correlating with negative forward returns [74][75]. - **Foreign Investment**: Despite valuation concerns, allocations to US equities remain strong, with a notable overweight compared to fixed income [79][80]. Other Important Insights - **Productivity Trends**: Labor productivity is a leading indicator of operating margin trends, with ongoing productivity gains crucial for a positive equity market outlook [60][67]. - **Market Composition Changes**: The earnings composition of the S&P 500 has shifted towards growth, reducing cyclicality and enhancing earnings resilience [109]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the US equity market, particularly focusing on the S&P 500 and the influence of AI technology.

银河证券表示，中美经贸和谈元首会晤达成重要共识，市场宏观预期与风险偏好有望改善，美联储在四 季度持续的降息与可能的停止缩表并开始扩表有望提升市场流动性，这均将有利于铜铝等工业金属大宗 商品价格上涨。而海外铜铝龙头企业事故频发对全球供应的扰动也将提升铜铝的价格弹性。2025Q4铜 铝行业业绩增速有望进一步提升。 在中美关税谈判达成日内瓦协议后，市场宏观预期改善、风险偏好提升，叠加美国就业市场出现恶化迹 象下市场对美联储在三季度重新开启降息的预期升温，以及国内"反内卷"的政策指引，共同推动有色金 属大宗商品价格稳步上行，使有色金属企业在三季度的盈利能力与业绩继续环比提升。且由于去年三季 度有色金属价格下跌形成的2024Q3有色金属行业业绩低基数的影响，使2025Q3A股有色金属行业业绩 同比增速加速上行。A股有色金属行业2025年前三季度营业收入同比增长10.02%，业绩同比增长 46.64%；A股有色金属行业2025Q3单季度营业收入同比增长16.57%，业绩同比增长52.08%。 智通财经APP获悉，银河证券发布研究报告称，国内外储能需求旺盛，以及进入2026年国内新能源汽车 购置税减免政策退坡或将引发年底抢 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing volatility, but overall corporate earnings are in a recovery phase, with a positive medium-term outlook supported by stable economic and policy expectations [2][3]. Market Performance - As of November 10, 2025, the CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.24%, with notable stock movements including China Duty Free leading with a 10.00% increase and Sanhua Intelligent Control dropping by 7.02% [2]. - The CSI 300 ETF by Bosera fell by 0.33%, with a recent price of 1.52 yuan, while it saw a cumulative increase of 0.73% over the past week as of November 7 [2]. Investment Strategy - Analysts suggest focusing on sectors with independent growth logic and improving return on equity (ROE), rather than avoiding AI narratives entirely [3]. - The current market style is expected to be more balanced compared to the third quarter, with recommendations to invest in technology growth and high-end manufacturing sectors, as well as cyclical sectors benefiting from domestic demand recovery [3]. Sector Analysis - The TMT sector, along with materials and chemicals, is significantly influenced by AI narratives, with these sectors comprising over 60% of institutional holdings [3]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 300 Index as of October 31, 2025, include Ningde Times and Kweichow Moutai, accounting for 21.76% of the index [4].

Group 1 - Notable fund managers have increased their positions in Hong Kong stocks during the third quarter, particularly in AI applications and innovative pharmaceuticals, leading to discussions about a potential market rebound in Hong Kong [1] - Daiwa Securities Group reported that mainland Chinese investors are realizing profits in Hong Kong stocks through the Stock Connect mechanism, with a focus on sectors such as electronics, computers, and military industries, while also increasing holdings in high-dividend stocks like energy and metal producers [1] Group 2 - Citic Securities' research indicates that not only the TMT sector but also non-ferrous metals and chemicals are experiencing price increases influenced by AI narratives, with these sectors collectively accounting for over 60% of institutional holdings [4] - The strategy for portfolio adjustment is not to avoid AI narratives but to select stocks with a rising trend in ROE from a low base, suggesting that AI narratives are affecting the slope of market trends rather than the overall trend itself [4]

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that market volatility has increased since October, but the success rate of market timing remains low due to changes in the underlying structure of incremental capital, with steady absolute return funds entering the market, reducing the effectiveness of traditional aggressive timing strategies [1][3] Market Volatility and Timing - Since October, the market has experienced two rounds of emotional volatility, with the first triggered by Trump's new tariff threats leading to a rapid reduction in active capital and a drop in daily trading volume from 2.5 trillion yuan to 1.7 trillion yuan [1] - The second round of volatility occurred after the meeting between the US and Chinese leaders, where active capital reduced positions due to uncertainties in US-China relations and high market positions approaching year-end [1][2] Structural Opportunities - Despite the volatility, the number of stocks reaching new highs has increased, with 232 stocks hitting 12-month highs by November 6, compared to 216 on September 30 [2] - The number of stocks reaching new highs in the past month rose from 384 on September 30 to 680 on November 6, indicating ongoing structural opportunities in the market [2] Steady Capital Inflow - Steady absolute return funds are increasingly entering the market, diminishing the effectiveness of traditional active timing strategies [3] - The influx of funds through stable return products is driven by declining interest rates on deposits and bank wealth management products, leading to a potential theoretical increase of 1.56 trillion yuan in the A-share market if 30% of new insurance premiums are allocated to equities [3][4] Comparison of Fund Flows - In the first nine months of the year, active public funds raised approximately 109.5 billion yuan, while passive products raised about 327 billion yuan, indicating a significant disparity compared to the potential inflow from insurance [4] - The behavior of ETF flows shows a counter-cyclical characteristic, with net inflows occurring during market corrections, highlighting a trend of "buying on dips" [5][6] Key Variables Impacting Market Trends - The stability of the overseas business environment and the construction of AI infrastructure are crucial variables affecting market trends, with the A-share market increasingly influenced by global fundamentals and US-China relations [7] - The share of overseas revenue for A-share companies is approaching 20%, indicating a growing sensitivity to international economic cycles [7] AI Infrastructure and Market Sentiment - The sustainability of AI infrastructure investment is critical for both US and A-share markets, with significant exposure to AI-related sectors [8] - Concerns about the commercial viability of AI and its impact on investment costs are prevalent, as evidenced by rising CDS spreads for major North American tech companies [8] Portfolio Adjustment Strategies - CITIC Securities suggests focusing on sectors with independent growth potential and improving ROE, rather than solely on AI narratives, to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [9][10] - The consumer sector, with a market cap share of only 7.5%, is highlighted as a relatively independent investment opportunity worth monitoring [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that China's ROE (Return on Equity) is on a rising trend while the US ROE is on a declining trend, suggesting a potential divergence in economic cycles between the two countries [2][3] - Recent data suggests that China's export and price data reflect the effects of anti-involution, with expectations for continued strengthening of corporate profits in China [3][8] - The debt expansion in the US AI industry may reinforce expectations for price improvement and corporate profitability in China, but it could also exacerbate stagflation characteristics in the US, posing risks to US stock performance [3][9] Group 2 - The report highlights a significant decline in China's export growth, with October exports showing a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, down from 8.3% previously, primarily affected by a drop in exports to the EU [8] - The report notes that the global manufacturing PMI did not weaken in October, indicating that the decline in China's export growth may be more related to supply-side improvements rather than demand-side factors [8] - The report emphasizes that under a recovering price environment, market sentiment may shift towards value stocks, with a focus on export prices and US consumer data in the future [3][9] Group 3 - The report suggests that the configuration of energy investments should primarily respond to the overheating expectations of US AI investments, recommending a focus on short to medium-term trading strategies [3] - Long-term investment opportunities are identified in sectors such as insurance, anti-involution industries, Chinese internet companies, and military trade [3][9] - The report indicates that the performance of the A-share market is expected to rise while the US stock market may decline, reflecting the contrasting economic cycles of China and the US [3][9]

Group 1 - The A-share market is currently in a phase of balancing between policy expectations and economic realities, with a focus on maintaining reasonable liquidity through monetary policy [2] - The market is expected to shift from "monetary easing" to "fiscal expectations," with anticipated stronger fiscal policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and building a modern industrial system [2] - The "new quality productivity" and "domestic circulation" themes are expected to remain active despite the overall market maintaining a state of fluctuation [2] Group 2 - Growth style is expected to continue to outperform in the annual context, but the fourth quarter may see a stronger shift in investment styles, particularly towards undervalued sectors [3] - The strength of style changes in the fourth quarter may surpass that of valuation adjustments, influenced by the relative valuation advantages of value stocks compared to growth stocks [3] - The cyclical sectors may benefit from policies aimed at reducing competition and improving the fundamental outlook in the coming year [3] Group 3 - Recent market price increases are driven by anticipations of a cyclical upturn in the coming year, with historical patterns indicating that certain years are associated with rising PPI [4] - The overlap of China's five-year cycle and the U.S. four-year cycle is expected to culminate in a significant year for industrial metal prices in 2026 [4] - Current cyclical investment opportunities include sectors such as non-ferrous metals, steel, and building materials, which are seen as favorable for positioning [4] Group 4 - The market has experienced increased volatility since October, with a shift in the underlying structure of incremental capital affecting traditional aggressive timing strategies [5] - The stability of the corporate overseas environment and developments in AI are critical variables influencing market dynamics, impacting various sectors including TMT, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals [5] - The strategy for portfolio adjustment is focused on selecting stocks with a rising trend in ROE rather than avoiding AI narratives, which are seen as influencing market slopes rather than overall trends [5]