2025 年 5 月 26 日 品 研 究 焦炭：累库延续，震荡偏弱 焦煤：累库延续，震荡偏弱 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2509 | 801.5 | -26 | -3.14% | | 期货价格 | | J2509 | 1383 | -23.5 | -1.67% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2509 | 491253 | 521877 | 27491 | | | | J2509 | 25439 | 55648 | 940 | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 | 昨日价格(元/吨) 1230 | 前日价格(元/吨) 1230 | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | 焦蝶 | | | | | | | | 金泉蒙5精煤自提价 | 970 | 970 | 0 0 | | | | 吕梁低硫主焦 | 1200 | 1200 | 0 | | | | 峰景折人民币 | 1651 | 1659 | -8 | | 现货价格 | 焦煤仓单 ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are under pressure from multiple factors, including potential supply increases and limited geopolitical premiums, despite seasonal demand expectations for refined oil products [1] Industry Summary - Geopolitical premiums are providing some support, but potential supply increases are suppressing oil prices [1] - The third accelerated production increase by OPEC+ may impact the market [1] - Trade tensions are expected to lead to long-term demand suppression [1] Company Summary - U.S. oil production stands at 13.392 million barrels per day, with a month-on-month change of 0.04% and a year-on-year change of 2.23% [1] - U.S. net crude oil imports are at 2.582 million barrels per day, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 4.45% and a year-on-year increase of 33.57% [1] - U.S. refinery throughput is 16.49 million barrels per day, with a month-on-month change of 0.54% and a year-on-year change of 0.05% [1] - U.S. refinery utilization rate is at 90.7%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 1.0 percentage points [1] - China's major refinery utilization rate is 73.26%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.8 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 3.0 percentage points [1] - Shandong independent refineries have a utilization rate of 46.09%, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.2 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 9.0 percentage points [1] Inventory Summary - U.S. total oil inventory (excluding SPR) is 1.223 billion barrels, compared to 1.218 billion barrels the previous week, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.19% [1] - U.S. commercial crude oil inventory is 444.3 million barrels, compared to 442 million barrels the previous week, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.42% [1] - U.S. gasoline inventory is 226 million barrels, compared to 225 million barrels the previous week, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.57% [1] - U.S. distillate inventory is 104 million barrels, unchanged from the previous week, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.80% [1] - European crude oil inventory is 56.794 million barrels, compared to 55.133 million barrels the previous week, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.60% [1] - European refined oil inventory is 5.18 million barrels, compared to 5.265 million barrels the previous week, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.07% [1] - Global floating storage is 88.198 million barrels, compared to 83.761 million barrels the previous week, with a year-on-year increase of 48.08% [1] Price Spread Summary - The crack spread in the U.S. Gulf Coast is $21.61 per barrel, down from $22.91 per barrel the previous week, with a year-on-year change of 14.84% [1] - The Brent transatlantic crack spread is $26.26 per barrel, down from $26.56 per barrel the previous week, with a year-on-year change of 21.53% [1] - The Middle East crack spread is $13.71 per barrel, up from $12.52 per barrel the previous week, with a year-on-year change of 10.11% [1] - The Southeast Asia crack spread is $12.40 per barrel, up from $11.76 per barrel the previous week, with a year-on-year change of 34.99% [1] Price Differential Summary - The WTI 1-6 month spread is $1.69 per barrel, down from $1.95 per barrel the previous week [1] - The Brent 1-6 month spread is $1.37 per barrel, up from $1.27 per barrel the previous week [1] - The Brent-WTI spread is $3.24 per barrel, down from $3.38 per barrel the previous week [1] - The EFS is $1.79 per barrel, up from $1.54 per barrel the previous week [1] - The SC-BRENT spread is -$1.07 per barrel, down from -$0.70 per barrel the previous week [1]

2025年05月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：短期利多兑现，上涨驱动放缓 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：黑色板块共振，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：短期情绪冲高，锰硅走势偏强 | 5 | | 焦炭：底部震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：底部震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：煤矿库存增加，震荡偏弱 | 9 | | 原木：弱势震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 23 日 铁矿石：短期利多兑现，上涨驱动放缓 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石趋势强度：-1 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View PVC and Caustic Soda - In the short term, the supply pressure of caustic soda is limited during the concentrated maintenance period, and the demand from the alumina sector has improved. Supported by fundamental supply - demand and positive macro - drivers, the spot price of caustic soda tends to be strong. However, attention should be paid to the price acceptance of non - aluminum sectors and the valuation of caustic soda. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [7]. - For PVC, in the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is limited due to concentrated maintenance and limited inventory pressure. There is an expectation of rush - exporting PVC products. But in the medium and long term, there is an obvious over - supply pressure. It is recommended to wait and see, with a short - term rebound and a medium - term short - selling approach [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, in the short term, the supply is tight and the demand is supported, but the upward pressure on crude oil and the possible production cut of downstream products may put pressure on PX. It is recommended to treat it as a high - level shock, exit the PX09 - 1 positive spread, and pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity [12]. - For PTA, the short - term supply - demand is tight, but there is an expectation of weakening. It is recommended to treat it as a high - level shock, exit the TA09 - 1 positive spread at a high level, and pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity [12]. - For ethylene glycol, it is expected to reduce inventory in May, and it is recommended to take profit on the short - put option EG2509 - P - 4250 seller and conduct a long spread on EG9 - 1 [12]. - For short - fiber, the short - term inventory pressure is not large, but the processing fee is compressed. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA for single - side trading and expand the processing fee at a low level [12]. - For bottle - chips, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price follows the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the processing fee at the lower edge of the 350 - 550 yuan/ton range [12]. Styrene The short - term rebound of styrene is supported by low inventory and improved demand expectations. However, the high - production and high - inventory problems of 3S products and the poor supply - demand of pure benzene may limit the rebound height. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance above 7800 - 7900 in the near - month [18]. Methanol The inland valuation of methanol has a downward pressure, the port starts the inventory - accumulation period, and the 09 contract is under pressure. It is recommended to short - sell the MA09 contract at a high level [22]. Crude Oil The overnight oil price continued to decline due to the progress of the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation. The short - term market will be mainly in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and capture volatility - amplification opportunities in the option market [26]. PE and PP The spot sentiment of PE and PP has weakened. The supply pressure will gradually decrease in May, but the cost - end rebound compresses the profit. Attention should be paid to the restocking and exporting of plastic products [29]. Urea The core logic of the rise in urea futures is the boost of the clear export policy. The short - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, but the actual increase depends on the policy implementation and export orders. The short - term disk will be in a wide - range consolidation [90]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC and Caustic Soda Spot and Futures - On May 15, the prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda and 50% liquid caustic soda were 2593.8 yuan/ton and 2760.0 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC and ethylene - based PVC were 4880.0 yuan/ton and 5100.0 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - The price differences and changes of SH and V series futures contracts were also provided [2]. Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - For caustic soda, the FOB price at East China ports on May 8 was 395.0 dollars/ton, with a decrease of 5.0 dollars/ton compared to May 1 [3]. - For PVC, the CFR prices in Southeast Asia and India remained unchanged from May 1 to May 8. The FOB price of calcium - carbide - based PVC at Tianjin Port decreased by 10.0 dollars/ton [4]. Supply - The caustic soda industry's operating rate on May 9 was 87.5%, and the PVC's total operating rate was 77.9%, both showing an increase [5]. Demand - The operating rates of the alumina, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing industries were provided, with some showing an increase [6]. - The operating rates of PVC downstream products and the pre - sales volume were also provided, with some showing an increase and the pre - sales volume showing a decrease [7]. Inventory - The inventory data of liquid caustic soda and PVC were provided, with some showing an increase and some showing a decrease [7]. Polyester Industry Chain Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - The price and cash - flow data of various polyester products such as POY, FDY, DTY, etc., and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [12]. PX - related Prices and Spreads - The price data of CFR China PX, PX spot, and futures, and the price differences such as PX - crude oil, PX - naphtha, etc., and their changes were provided [12]. PTA - related Prices and Spreads - The price data of PTA spot and futures, and the price - difference data such as PTA basis, PTA processing fee, etc., and their changes were provided [12]. MEG - related Prices and Spreads - The price data of MEG spot and futures, and the price - difference data such as MEG basis, MEG processing fee, etc., and their changes were provided [12]. Industry Chain Operating Rates - The operating rates of the Asian PX, Chinese PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester industries and their changes were provided [12]. Styrene Upstream - The price data of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene, and other upstream products and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [15]. Spot and Futures - The price data of styrene spot and futures and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [16]. Overseas Quotes and Import Profits - The price data of styrene's overseas quotes and import profits and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [17]. Industry Chain Operating Rates and Profits - The operating rates and profit data of domestic pure benzene, styrene, PS, EPS, ABS, etc., and their changes were provided [18]. Inventory - The inventory data of pure benzene, styrene, PS, EPS, ABS, etc., and their changes were provided [18]. Methanol Price and Spreads - The price data of methanol futures contracts, the price differences between contracts, the basis, and the regional price differences, and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [22]. Inventory - The inventory data of methanol enterprises, ports, and the weekly arrival volume, and their changes were provided [22]. Up - and Down - stream Operating Rates - The operating rates of methanol upstream enterprises, downstream MTO devices, formaldehyde, acetic acid, MTBE, etc., and their changes were provided [22]. Crude Oil Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - The price data of Brent, WTI, SC crude oils, and the price differences such as Brent - WTI, SC - Brent, etc., and their changes on May 16 compared to May 15 were provided [26]. Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - The price data of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, ICE Gasoil, and the price differences between contracts, and their changes were provided [26]. Refined Oil Crack Spreads - The crack - spread data of various refined oils in different regions and their changes were provided [26]. PE and PP Price and Spreads - The price data of PE and PP futures contracts, the price differences between contracts, the basis, and the prices of various PE and PP products, and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [29]. Up - and Down - stream Operating Rates - The operating rates of PE and PP devices, downstream weighted operating rates, and their changes were provided [29]. Inventory - The inventory data of PE and PP enterprises, social inventories, and their changes were provided [29]. Urea Futures - The price data of urea futures contracts, the price differences between contracts, the main - contract positions, and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [82][83][84]. Upstream Raw Materials - The price data of upstream raw materials such as anthracite, steam coal, synthetic ammonia, etc., and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [85]. Spot Market - The spot - market price data of urea in different regions, the cross - regional price differences, the basis, and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [86][87]. Downstream Products - The price data of downstream products such as melamine, compound fertilizer, etc., and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [88]. Fertilizer Market - The price data of various fertilizers such as ammonium sulfate, sulfur, potassium chloride, etc., and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [89]. Supply and Demand - The daily and weekly production, inventory, and order - day data of urea, and their changes were provided [90].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Although there are issues such as inverted price differences between fat pigs in the north and south, reduced piglet sales by groups, and increased pen pressure in May, price increases have led to continued inventory accumulation. The near - term contradictions are not at the release stage. The trading logic has switched to the industrial logic, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage strategy of the far - month inter - monthly spread valuation deviating from the norm. In the medium - to - long - term, continue to layout the 11 - 1 reverse spread, and pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of pigs in Henan is 15,000 yuan/ton, in Sichuan is 14,450 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous period), and in Guangdong is 15,190 yuan/ton [3]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the live hog 2507 contract is 13,495 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan/ton), the 2509 contract is 13,780 yuan/ton (down 240 yuan/ton), and the 2511 contract is 13,550 yuan/ton (down 105 yuan/ton) [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the live hog 2507 contract is 9,989 lots (an increase of 2,918 lots compared to the previous day), with an open interest of 27,584 lots (a decrease of 706 lots); the 2509 contract has a trading volume of 40,357 lots (an increase of 12,323 lots), with an open interest of 77,561 lots (an increase of 5,221 lots); the 2511 contract has a trading volume of 6,572 lots (an increase of 3,358 lots), with an open interest of 30,277 lots (an increase of 837 lots) [3]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the live hog 2507 contract is 1,505 yuan/ton (an increase of 150 yuan/ton), the 2509 contract is 1,220 yuan/ton (an increase of 240 yuan/ton), and the 2511 contract is 1,450 yuan/ton (an increase of 105 yuan/ton). The 7 - 9 spread is - 285 yuan/ton (an increase of 90 yuan/ton), and the 9 - 11 spread is 230 yuan/ton (a decrease of 135 yuan/ton) [3]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with the range of values in the [-2, 2] interval for integers. It represents a neutral state [4]. 3.3 Market Logic - The trading logic has switched to the industrial logic. Focus on the far - month inter - monthly spread valuation deviating from the norm for arbitrage strategies. In the medium - to - long - term, continue to layout the 11 - 1 reverse spread and pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5].

IL期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月15日 Z0020680 苗扬 期货收盘价 | 品种 | 5月14日 | 5月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01合约 | 1814 | 1798 | 16 | 0.89% | 元/吨 | | 05合约 | 1900 | 1930 | -30 | -1.55% | | | 09合约 | 1886 | 1897 | =11 | -0.58% | | | 甲醇主力合约 Hm = A / L / A 3 / | 2365 | 2291 | 74 | 3.23% | | 期货合约价差 | 价差 | 5月14日 | 5月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01合约-05合约 | -86 | -132 | 46 | 34.85% | | | 05合约-09合约 | 14 | 33 | -19 | -57.58% | | | 09合约-01合约 | 72 | дд | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Urea - Despite high daily production, short - term maintenance led to a decline in daily output. The new export policy allows the release of supportive export orders from May to June, and the upcoming summer top - dressing season in May - June is expected to boost agricultural demand. Market price increases are likely to be cautious, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near term [3]. Crude Oil - Oil prices continued to rise, driven by the progress of China - US trade negotiations and geopolitical uncertainties. In the short term, the market risk appetite has increased, but no strong trend has been formed yet, and the sustainability of the macro - drive needs to be observed. The monthly - line fluctuation ranges are adjusted to [57, 67] for WTI, [60, 70] for Brent, and [450, 510] for SC [7]. Styrene - Crude oil is expected to be weak in the medium term, putting pressure on chemical products. Pure benzene supply has decreased recently, but overall supply pressure remains due to imports. Styrene downstream demand is weak, and supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy for styrene, with the upper resistance for the near - term contract at 7300 [13]. PE and PP - For LLDPE, although imports are expected to decline significantly from May to June and supply pressure will gradually decrease, inventory pressure is still large under the situation of weak supply and demand, and there is a long - term downward risk. For PP, supply pressure eases slightly during the second - quarter maintenance season, but production is still high, demand is weakening, and there is also a long - term downward risk [17]. Caustic Soda - In the medium - to - long term, the demand for caustic soda from alumina is insufficient, and new production capacity is being added, so the supply - demand outlook is weak. In the short term, caustic soda is in the maintenance phase, and the price has been supported. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy, with the near - term resistance at 2550 [26]. PVC - The supply - demand surplus of PVC is prominent. Domestic demand is weak, and exports are mainly based on price - for - volume. The long - term surplus problem is difficult to solve, and the price is expected to remain weak. It is recommended to short on rallies, but there is a risk of price rebound during the maintenance period [26]. Methanol - The inland valuation has a downward pressure. After the spring maintenance, production has recovered, and downstream profits are differentiated. The port has entered a stock - building period, and the MTO low - operation rate suppresses demand. It is recommended to short the MA09 contract on rallies [35][38]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Tight supply and short - term strong demand support its price, but the rebound space is limited. PX09 is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and PX9 - 1 is in a short - term positive spread situation [40]. - PTA: The supply - demand pattern remains tight in the short term, and the price is expected to be relatively strong compared to oil prices, but the rebound is suppressed. TA09 is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and TA9 - 1 is in a short - term positive spread and medium - term reverse spread situation [40]. - MEG: Domestic supply is expected to increase in May, but short - term de - stocking is expected due to high polyester load and reduced imports. EG09 is expected to be strong in the short term [40]. - Short - fiber: Inventory pressure is low in the short term, but the driving force is weaker than that of raw materials. The processing fee is under pressure, and the absolute price fluctuates with raw materials [40]. - Bottle - chip: Supply and demand are both strong in the short term, and the absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. The processing fee is supported, and the main - contract processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 550 yuan/ton [40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - The prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts and the methanol main contract all increased, with increases ranging from 0.22% to 1.26% [1]. Contract Spreads - The spreads of 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01, and UR - MA main contracts changed, with changes ranging from - 16.00% to 44.83% [1]. Main Positions - The long and short positions of the top 20 increased, with the long positions increasing by 2.05% and the short positions increasing by 2.51%. The long - short ratio decreased slightly [1]. Upstream Raw Materials - Most upstream raw material prices remained stable, except for the port price of steam - coal in Qinhuangdao, which decreased by 0.78% [1]. Spot Market Prices - Spot prices in most regions increased, with increases ranging from 0.53% to 2.16% [1]. Supply - Demand Overview - Daily production decreased slightly, with a 1.20% decline in domestic daily urea production. Weekly production increased slightly by 0.21%, and factory inventory decreased by 10.58% while port inventory increased by 12.71% [3]. Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent, WTI, and SC prices increased, with increases ranging from 0.34% to 1.34%. Spreads such as Brent - WTI and EFS also changed [7]. Product Prices and Spreads - Prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased, with increases ranging from 0.53% to 0.71%. Spreads also changed [7]. Crack Spreads - Crack spreads of various refined products changed, with increases ranging from 0.28% to 4.28% for some products and decreases for others [7]. Styrene Upstream - Prices of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. increased, with increases ranging from 0.8% to 2.5%. The opening rates of domestic pure benzene and styrene increased [10][13]. Spot and Futures - The spot price of styrene in East China decreased slightly by 0.1%, while futures prices EB2506 and EB2507 increased by 1.0% and 1.1% respectively [11]. Overseas Quotes and Import Profits - Overseas quotes of styrene increased slightly, but the import profit decreased by 11.4% [12]. Industry Chain Inventory - Inventories of pure benzene and styrene ports decreased, while inventories of some downstream products also changed [13]. PE and PP Prices and Spreads - PE and PP futures prices mostly decreased, and the spreads between different contracts changed. Spot prices also decreased slightly [17]. Non - standard Prices - Most non - standard PE and PP prices decreased or remained stable [17]. Upstream and Downstream Opening Rates - PE and PP device opening rates decreased, and downstream weighted opening rates also decreased slightly [17]. Inventory - PE and PP enterprise inventories increased, with increases of 38.99% and 19.76% respectively [17]. Caustic Soda and PVC Spot and Futures - For caustic soda, the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased by 0.7%. For PVC, the prices of some futures contracts changed, with increases or decreases [21]. Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - The FOB price of caustic soda in East China decreased by 1.3%, and the FOB price of PVC in Tianjin decreased by 1.6% [22][23]. Supply - The opening rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries increased slightly [24]. Demand - The opening rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC increased [25][26]. Inventory - The PVC upstream factory inventory and total social inventory increased slightly [26]. Methanol Prices and Spreads - Methanol futures prices increased, and spreads between different contracts and regional spreads also changed [35]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory and port inventory increased, and the weekly arrival volume increased by 12.50% [35]. Upstream and Downstream Opening Rates - The upstream domestic enterprise opening rate increased, and the downstream MTO device opening rate increased [35]. Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Prices - Prices of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. increased, with increases ranging from 1.0% to 2.5% [40]. PX - related - PX prices and spreads changed, with the CFR China PX price increasing by 0.9% [40]. PTA - related - PTA prices and spreads changed, and the processing fees of PTA also changed [40]. MEG - related - MEG prices and spreads changed, and the port inventory decreased slightly [40]. Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - Prices of POY, FDY, etc. increased, and cash flows and processing fees of polyester products also changed [40]. Industry Chain Opening Rates - Opening rates of various segments in the polyester industry chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [40].

聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月7日 张晓珍 Z0003135 PE PP价格及价差 | 品种 | 5月6日 | 4月30日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2505 收盘价 | 7230 | 7273 | -43 | -0.59% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 6987 | 7083 | -96 | -1.36% | | | PP2505 收盘价 | 7105 | 7126 | -21 | -0.29% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | ୧୦୦୧ | 7041 | -46 | -0.65% | | | L2505-2509 | 243 | 190 | 53 | 27.89% | | | PP2505-2509 | 110 | 82 | 25 | 29.41% | 元/吨 | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 7130 | 7200 | -70 | -0.97% | | | 华北LDPE膜料现货 | 7230 | 7300 | -70 | -0.96% | | | 华北 ...

Report Date - The report is dated May 7, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided Core Views - The report provides an analysis of the soybean oil and palm oil markets, stating that soybean oil is in a process of bottom - seeking with oscillations and is relatively strong among varieties, while palm oil is short - term weak with support below [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures Data - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 7,974 yuan/ton with a decline of 2.14%, closing price (night session) is 7,912 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.78%. Trading volume is 549,475 lots, an increase of 45,312 lots, and open interest is 367,565 lots, an increase of 20,597 lots [2] - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 7,760 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.92%, closing price (night session) is 7,746 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.18%. Trading volume is 299,059 lots, an increase of 12,309 lots, and open interest is 583,917 lots, an increase of 1,935 lots [2] - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 9,216 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.87%, closing price (night session) is 9,236 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.22%. Trading volume is 299,742 lots, an increase of 9,457 lots, and open interest is 280,976 lots, an increase of 4,397 lots [2] Spot Data - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): Spot price is 8,620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton [2] - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): Spot price is 8,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton [2] - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Spot price is 9,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2] Basis Data - Palm oil (Guangdong): Spot basis is 646 yuan/ton [2] - Soybean oil (Guangdong): Spot basis is 380 yuan/ton [2] - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Spot basis is 54 yuan/ton [2] Spread Data - Rapeseed - palm oil futures main contract spread: 1,242 yuan/ton, compared to 1,149 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2] - Soybean - palm oil futures main contract spread: - 214 yuan/ton, compared to - 316 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2] - Palm oil 5 - 9 spread: 456 yuan/ton, compared to 468 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2] - Soybean oil 5 - 9 spread: 140 yuan/ton, compared to 150 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2] - Rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread: 24 yuan/ton, compared to 9 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - In Myanmar, the wholesale reference price of palm oil in the Yangon market dropped from 6,735 kyats per viss (about 1.5 kg) last week (April 28 - May 4) to 6,700 kyats per viss as of the week ending May 11. The Ministry of Commerce is taking measures to control prices. Myanmar's annual palm oil consumption is about 1 million tons, local production is about 400,000 tons, and it imports about 700,000 tons from Malaysia and Indonesia [3][4] - As of the week ending May 2, 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing profit was $2.16 per bushel, a 5.3% decline from the previous week. The average crushing profit in 2024 was $2.44 per bushel, lower than $3.29 per bushel in 2023 [4] - Brazilian farmers plan to expand the soybean planting area in the main planting areas by about 500,000 hectares in the 2025/26 season starting in September. The current - season soybean planting area reached a record 47.8 million hectares, and the harvest was 172.1 million tons [4] - From April 28 to May 2, the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state, Brazil, was 623.09 reais/ton, down from 643.31 reais/ton the previous week [5] - As of May 4, the EU's 2024/25 palm oil imports were 2.43 million tons (compared to 2.96 million tons in the same period last year), soybean imports were 11.73 million tons (compared to 10.92 million tons last year), and rapeseed imports were 5.68 million tons (higher than 5 million tons last year) [5] - In 2024, Germany produced about 3.6 million tons of biodiesel, an increase of 100,000 tons year - on - year. Over half of the raw materials came from rapeseed, and about 1.45 million tons of rapeseed oil was processed into biodiesel, approximately equivalent to the 2024 rapeseed harvest [6] 3. Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0; Soybean oil trend intensity: 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [7]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the "Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" by Guangda Futures Research, dated April 30, 2025 [1] Group 2: Futures Contract Information - For futures contracts, I05 closed at 764.0 today (up 1.0 from the previous day), I09 at 709.0 (down 1.5), and I01 at 684.5 (up 0.5) [2] - The I05 - I09 spread is 55.0 today (up 2.5), I09 - I01 is 24.5 (down 2.0), and I01 - I05 is -79.5 (down 0.5) [2] Group 3: Basis Data - For various iron ore varieties, the basis and its changes are presented. For example, the basis of Carajás fines is 96 today (up 2 from the previous day), and that of BRBF is 89 (down 2) [5] Group 4: Contract and Rule Adjustments - According to the Dalian Commodity Exchange, from the I2202 contract, 4 new deliverable varieties (Benxi Concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian Concentrate) are added with a brand premium of 0 [11] - The brand premiums of existing varieties are adjusted. Only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines have a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, and others are 0 [11] - The allowable range of iron grade and other element indicators for substitutes is adjusted, and a dynamic adjustment mechanism for the premium of iron element indicators is introduced [11] - From the I2312 contract, Taigang Concentrate, Magang Concentrate, Minmetals Standard Fines, and SP10 Fines are added as deliverable brands with a brand premium of 0 [11] Group 5: Variety Spread Information - For variety spreads, the PB lump - PB fines spread is 141.0 today (up 5.0), and the PB fines - mixed fines spread is 96.0 (down 2.0) [13] Group 6: Research Team Introduction - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and relevant qualifications [23]