作 者丨张欣 编 辑丨周炎炎 图 源丨2 1世纪经济报道 梁远浩 摄 "好的时光总是要过去，我觉得我们进入低利率周期已经至少有两年了。" 近日，有银行业人 士 向 2 1 世 纪 经 济 报 道 记 者 感 慨 ， 商 业 银 行 正 从 " 寻 找 优 质 资 产 " 变 为 " 找 到 优 质 资 产 是 一 种 奢 望"。 降息步履不停。5月2 0日，新一期LPR出炉，1年期和5年期以上LPR双双下降1 0个基点。同一 天，六大国有银行和几家股份行接连宣布下调存款利率。 随着1 0年期国债收益率跌破 2%，商业银行净息差从2 0 2 1年的2 . 0 8%持续降至2 0 2 5年一季度 的1 . 4 3%，一场关乎行业发展的转型大考已然来临。 当前，我国正逐步向低利率时代过渡，结构性低利率已在部分领域显现 。据2 1世纪经济报道 记者综合了解，从日本1 9 9 9年、美国2 0 0 8年、欧洲2 0 0 9年先后进入低利率时代的经验看，一 旦进入该区间往往需要十年以上才能走出，而银行业能否在息差收窄的过程中重构盈利模式， 成为穿越周期的关键。 他山之石，可以攻玉。面对净息差持续收窄与收入结构快速调整的冲 ...

Core Viewpoint - The asset management industry in China is transitioning towards high-quality development amidst low interest rates and stringent regulations, with a focus on shifting from "scale-driven" to "quality-led" growth [1] Group 1: Current Industry Landscape - As of the end of 2024, the total scale of China's asset management industry is expected to exceed 140 trillion yuan, becoming a significant force in wealth management and capital market resource allocation [1] - The industry faces both transformation pressures and opportunities, necessitating a profound shift in operational strategies [1] Group 2: Key Insights from Industry Leaders - The high-quality development of asset management institutions should focus on enhancing investment research capabilities and optimizing product offerings to meet diverse client needs [2][3] - The public fund industry has seen significant growth over the past 20 years, driven by high-level opening-up policies, which should continue to be pursued for further development [3][4] - Private equity firms must emphasize compliance and innovation to enhance their risk management capabilities and competitive edge [4] Group 3: Market Trends and Client Preferences - There is a notable shift in residents' asset allocation preferences, with a polarization in risk appetite: some investors are seeking safety while others are more willing to take risks due to policy influences [3][16] - The market is experiencing a structural challenge where quality assets are becoming increasingly scarce despite ample liquidity [3][16] Group 4: Strategies for High-Quality Development - Asset management institutions should prioritize value creation for clients, focusing on effective investment strategies and robust research capabilities [8][12] - Embracing digital transformation and integrating AI into investment processes are essential for enhancing operational efficiency and client service [12][35] - The development of diversified product lines that cater to varying risk appetites is crucial for meeting evolving client demands [18] Group 5: Regulatory and Policy Recommendations - There is a call for unified standards in performance benchmarks for financial products to foster a sustainable investment environment [30] - Continued support for international cooperation and knowledge exchange is vital for cultivating competitive asset management institutions [32][19]

Core Viewpoint - The banking industry is transitioning into a low-interest-rate environment, which poses significant challenges for profitability and requires a strategic shift in business models [1][3][4]. Group 1: Current Economic Environment - The recent decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and the continuous drop in the 10-year government bond yield indicate a shift towards a low-interest-rate era in China [1][4]. - Historical experiences from Japan, the US, and Europe suggest that once a low-interest-rate environment is established, it may take over a decade to exit [3][4]. Group 2: Impact on Banking Sector - The net interest margin for commercial banks in China has decreased from 2.08% in 2021 to an expected 1.43% by Q1 2025, marking a cumulative decline of 65 basis points [1][4]. - The low-interest-rate environment is expected to lead to a decline in interest income for listed banks, with a projected 2.2% decrease in 2024 [5]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - Some banks are adopting strategies similar to those of Japanese banks, such as international expansion and diversification into non-interest income [2][8]. - Major banks like ICBC are implementing a "second growth curve" strategy to adapt to the new environment, focusing on comprehensive financial services [13][16]. Group 4: Lessons from International Experience - Japanese banks have successfully navigated low-interest rates by expanding overseas, adjusting loan structures, and increasing non-interest income [8][10]. - The shift towards a diversified income model is crucial for banks to mitigate the impact of declining interest margins [10][11]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The banking sector is expected to continue evolving, with a focus on enhancing operational efficiency, optimizing asset-liability structures, and leveraging technology to support growth [14][18]. - The emphasis on wealth management and private banking is increasing as banks seek to meet rising demand for asset preservation in a low-interest-rate context [13][14].

21世纪经济报道记者张欣 北京报道 "低利率时代不仅是数值变化，更是经济运行逻辑的转变。" 5月23日，上海金融与发展实验室首席专家、主任曾刚在接受《21世 纪经济报道》（以下简称《21世纪》）记者专访时指出，当前我国结构性低利率已在部分领域显现。尽管我国利率水平仍高于 欧美极端低位，但商业银行净息差持续收窄、非息业务转型压力加剧，行业正面临从 "存贷依赖" 到 "综合服务" 的深层变革。 曾刚进一步分析，从利率绝对水平、实际利率视角及趋势走向看，国内利率环境呈现一定的低利率特征，但在潜在经济增长潜 力以及科技创新等积极因素支撑下，远未进入欧美 "常态化超低利率" 阶段。在利率下行的同时，银行非息业务发展也遭遇了监 管趋严、竞争加剧等多重挑战，如何实现转型？海外银行在资产负债管理、财富管理升级等方面的经验，为我国银行业转型提 供了有益的参考。 （上海金融与发展实验室首席专家、主任曾刚，来源:受访者提供） 以下为采访问答实录： 二是实际利率视角。名义利率减去通胀率得到的实际利率更具参考意义。当实际利率长期为负或接近于零，意味着资金成本实 质降低，这是低利率时代的核心特征。 三是利率趋势。利率的走向比单一时点更重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent collective decision by nine joint-stock banks to lower deposit rates marks China's official entry into a low-interest-rate era, with significant implications for the banking sector and the economy as a whole [1]. Group 1: Interest Rate Trends - The deposit interest rates have seen a dramatic decline from 4% in 2014 to as low as 0.05% for current deposits and below 1% for one-year fixed deposits [1]. - Since 2022, commercial banks have implemented seven rounds of interest rate cuts, totaling a reduction of over 300 basis points [1]. - The one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has decreased by 35 basis points, while the five-year LPR has dropped by 60 basis points in 2024 alone, indicating a rapid decline in interest rates [1]. Group 2: Banking Sector Implications - The net interest margin for banks has fallen below the critical threshold of 1.8%, with a current figure of 1.43%, raising concerns within the industry [4]. - The significant drop in deposit rates (up to 25 basis points) has outpaced the LPR reduction (10 basis points), reflecting a strategic choice by banks to alleviate operational pressures while ensuring lower financing costs for enterprises [4]. - This adjustment is projected to relieve the banking system of over 200 billion yuan annually, which can be redirected to support manufacturing and small enterprises [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - With the decline in deposit rates, there is a suggestion for depositors to consider alternative investment options, such as government bonds, cash management products, and long-term fixed-rate insurance products [5]. - Financial experts recommend diversifying investments, with allocations suggested for large-denomination certificates of deposit, money market funds, and bond funds, while maintaining some liquidity [5]. - The transition to a low-interest-rate environment necessitates a shift in investment strategies, encouraging investors to accept moderate risks to adapt to the new financial landscape [5]. Group 4: Economic Context - The trend of declining interest rates is not unique to China, as similar patterns have been observed in Japan and Europe, where low or negative interest rates have persisted for years [1]. - The capital return rate in China has decreased from 15% in 2007 to 5.8% in 2023, which is a key factor driving the downward trend in interest rates [1]. - The shift towards lower interest rates is viewed as a necessary phase in economic transformation rather than a regression of the financial system [7].

作者 胡群 新一轮存款降息潮来袭，5月20日起，包括工、农、中、建、交、邮储、招行、光大在内的主要银行纷纷下调存款利率。其中，五大国有银行活期及一年期 以内定期存款利率下调5-15个基点，三年期、五年期定期存款利率下调25个基点。邮储银行及招行、光大等全国性股份制银行也于同日下调存款利率。 其中，邮储银行3个月、6个月、1年期、2年期、3年期、5年期定期存款利率（整存整取）分别为0.65%、0.86%、0.98%、1.05%、1.25%、1.3%；招行同期限 定期存款利率分别为0.65%、0.85%、0.95%、1.05%、1.25%、1.3%；光大银行同期限定期存款利率略高，分别为0.7%、0.95%、1.15%、1.2%、1.3%、 1.35%。 中国金融业步入低利率时代，各家机构都在积极思考如何在逆境中突围。在银行业普遍降息的背景下，招商银行的资产负债结构使其具备一定的抗风险能 力。2025年一季报显示，招行活期存款日均余额占比达51.80%，显著高于行业水平。较高的活期存款占比降低了资金成本对利率波动的敏感性，使招行在 降息周期中受影响相对有限。此外，依托强大的品牌效应、客户黏性及差异化服务能力，招行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of declining deposit interest rates on various asset classes, particularly highlighting the potential shift of funds from deposits to equities, bonds, and cash flow assets like dividend stocks. Group 1: Market Overview - The overall market showed a slight increase, maintaining a rating close to 5 stars [1] - Large-cap stocks experienced slightly more gains compared to small-cap stocks [2] - Dividend and value styles performed strongly in the market [3] Group 2: Deposit Rate Changes - Recent reductions in deposit interest rates have been noted, which is favorable for cash flow assets like dividends [4][10] - Major state-owned banks have lowered their deposit rates, with current rates for demand deposits at 0.05% and one-year fixed deposits below 1% [11][12][13] - The total scale of deposits exceeds 300 trillion RMB, significantly larger than the A-share market and bond market [17][18][22][23] Group 3: Fund Flow Implications - The decline in deposit yields is expected to lead to a portion of funds flowing out of deposits into other assets, similar to trends observed in Japan post-1989 [24][25] - Historical context shows that after Japan's asset bubble burst, low interest rates led to a significant shift towards high dividend yield stocks, which eventually helped the market recover [30][31] Group 4: Asset Classes for Fund Flow - Funds may flow into bonds, as their yields, while lower, still exceed deposit rates; for example, five-year government bonds yield an average of 1.55% [34] - The "fixed income plus" products are emerging, combining bonds with equities to enhance returns [36][39] - Cash flow assets, particularly dividend indices, are also attractive, with many offering yields exceeding 4-5%, significantly higher than current deposit rates [44][46] Group 5: Investment Considerations - While deposits offer low risk, the low yields prompt investors to consider assets with higher potential returns, albeit with increased volatility [51] - The growth of dividend and fixed income products is supported by the backdrop of declining interest rates, indicating a shift in investor preferences [52]

那机会在哪儿呢？帮主结合20年的观察，给大家拆几个方向。首先是权益类资产，也就是股票和基金。可能有人一听股票就摇头："股市太吓人了，波动太 大！"但别忘了，低利率时代，资金会往哪儿跑？从历史规律看，当传统固收类产品收益缩水，股市往往会成为资金的"蓄水池"。尤其是咱们中长线投资 者，别盯着每天的涨跌，要瞄准那些有业绩支撑的行业。比如我之前反复聊过的新能源、半导体、消费升级，这些赛道就像正在爬坡的火车，短期可能颠 簸，但长期看动力十足。新手朋友怕风险怎么办？很简单，用定投的方式买指数基金或者行业ETF，分摊成本，把战线拉长，时间会帮你平滑波动。 再说黄金。最近国际金价又悄悄崛起了，为啥？一方面，全球央行都在买黄金储备，咱们中国央行连续六个月增持；另一方面，低利率环境下，黄金作为无 息资产的机会成本降低，成了抗通胀的硬通货。不过帮主提醒一句，黄金短期受地缘政治和美元走势影响大，咱们可以把它当成资产组合里的"安全垫"，比 如配置5%-10%的比例，别all in，但也别完全不碰。 还有一个方向容易被忽略——海外资产配置。现在人民币汇率波动加大，单一货币资产的风险在上升。咱们普通投资者怎么参与？其实很简单，通过QDII ...

同样是10万块钱，5年前后的利息差到底有大？青岛储户王优(化名)对此深有体会。 "现在每吸收100元存款，成本就要1.5元以上，但贷款利息收入不到3元，不降价真的撑不住。"一位国 有大行支行行长曾对媒体坦言。 "低利率时代，主动管理财富将成为投资者的必修课。"恒友汇宏观经济研究室表示，利率变迁不仅是激 活经济动能的政策选择，也是银行应对息差压力的调整之策。当"钱袋子"增速放缓，左手机遇右手挑 战，如何在风险与收益间找到平衡点，考验每个人的投资智慧。 面对日益增大的息差压力，银行业不得不采取行动。新一轮降息潮始于2024年下半年。国有六大行率先 下调存款利率，股份制银行迅速跟进，中小银行也陆续补降。短短半年间，银行存款利率全面迈入"1时 代"。与此同时，央行通过下调政策利率推动LPR下行，形成"政策利率—市场利率—存款利率"的传导 链条，五轮调整后，市场化特征愈发显著。 目前，国有大行五年期定存利率普遍跌破2%。中国建设银行人民币存款利率下调后，活期利率仅为 0.05%；定期整存整取三个月期、半年期、一年期、二年期利率分别为0.65%、0.85%、0.95%、1.05%； 三年期和五年期则是1.25%和1.3% ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the shift in investment strategies among individuals due to declining interest rates and the ineffectiveness of traditional savings methods [2][8] - It emphasizes the importance of financial literacy and adaptive investment approaches in a low-interest-rate environment [8] Group 1: Changing Investment Landscape - The People's Bank of China has lowered interest rates, with one-year deposit rates falling below 1%, leading to a decline in traditional savings returns [2] - Individuals are increasingly exploring alternative investment vehicles such as funds and stocks, indicating a broader trend towards financial diversification [2][3] Group 2: Innovative Financial Strategies - Community members are learning about new financial instruments like government bond reverse repurchase agreements and large-denomination time deposits, which offer better returns than traditional savings [3] - The use of short-term financial tools, such as T+0 wealth management products, is becoming popular as individuals seek to protect their savings from inflation [3][4] Group 3: Diverse Investment Approaches - Different investor profiles are emerging, such as conservative investors focusing on dividend index funds and REITs for stable income, while more aggressive investors are engaging in quantitative hedge funds and gold ETFs [4][5] - The article illustrates how individuals are adapting their strategies based on market conditions, with some using automated systems to manage their investments [5][6] Group 4: Financial Education and Technology - The rise of financial education initiatives, such as community workshops and apps that simulate real market conditions, is helping individuals improve their investment knowledge and decision-making [6][7] - Tools like "emotional temperature meters" are being developed to help investors manage their trading behaviors and avoid impulsive decisions [6][7] Group 5: Resilience in Investment - The narrative concludes with a reflection on the importance of patience and long-term thinking in investing, as individuals learn to navigate market volatility and economic changes [7][8] - The overall message is that financial freedom is achieved through a deep understanding of money and continuous personal development in investment strategies [8]