全球贸易战

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特朗普关税铁拳殃及广告领域! Snap(SNAP.US)订阅用户大增59% 但拒绝给出营收预期
智通财经网· 2025-04-29 23:37
Core Viewpoint - Snap Inc reported a slight revenue increase in Q1, but faces significant challenges due to macroeconomic headwinds from tariffs, leading to a refusal to provide revenue guidance for the current quarter [1][2][5] Financial Performance - Snap's Q1 revenue reached approximately $1.36 billion, a 14% year-over-year increase, slightly above Wall Street's expectation of $1.35 billion [2][3] - The company reported a net loss of about $140 million, which is a 54% reduction compared to the previous year's loss [3] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 137% year-over-year to $108 million [3] User Metrics - Snapchat+ subscription users grew by 59% year-over-year, reaching approximately 15 million [3] - Monthly active users reached 900 million, nearing the significant milestone of 1 billion [3] Advertising and Market Position - The number of advertising clients increased by 60% year-over-year, with direct response ads accounting for 75% of quarterly ad revenue, a record high [3] - Snap's advertising strategy focuses on high engagement from Gen Z and utilizes AR technology, differentiating itself from larger platforms like Meta and Pinterest [4] Economic and Regulatory Environment - The company is impacted by the Trump administration's tariff policies, which have led to a tightening of advertising budgets among some advertisers [1][2][5] - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. is currently close to 23%, the highest in over a century, affecting consumer and business confidence [2]
冠通每日交易策略-20250429
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 11:11
Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Copper prices are currently in a state of long - short game on the trading board. As the subsequent macro - sentiment is gradually digested, the market is expected to return to fundamentals and remain in a volatile range in the short term [3][5]. - Given the repeated tariff policies and large fluctuations in crude oil, it is recommended to take a light - position short - selling approach to crude oil [6]. - For asphalt, with both supply and demand increasing and large fluctuations in crude oil, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [11]. - PP is expected to trade in a volatile manner [13]. - Plastic is expected to trade weakly in a volatile manner, and it is recommended to close the short - position on the basis of the plastic 05 contract for profit [14]. - PVC is expected to trade weakly in a volatile manner in the near term [16]. - Urea may experience a corrective rebound after the agricultural demand starts, but attention should be paid to the risk of price fluctuations on the trading board [17]. Summary by Hot - Spot Varieties Copper - **Supply**: As of April 25, the domestic spot smelting fee (TC) is - 40.3 dollars per dry ton, and the RC fee is - 4.04 cents per pound, with negative values continuing to expand. In March, the refined copper production was 1.248 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%; the imported refined copper volume was 354,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. The market still anticipates a tight supply [3]. - **Demand**: After the price increase, pre - May Day stocking was scattered. In the peak season, downstream demand was relatively strong, and the downstream operating rate was high. In the first two months of 2025, the global apparent refined copper usage increased by about 1%. In China, the apparent demand increased by about 1.6%. The net refined copper imports decreased by 11%. Terminal demand from power grid investment, household appliances, and automobiles brought an increase in copper demand, and copper inventory decreased significantly within the month [3]. - **Price Outlook**: The current trading board is in a long - short game. After the macro - sentiment is digested, the market will return to fundamentals and remain volatile in the short term [3][5]. Crude Oil - **Supply**: OPEC + started to gradually relax the production - cut plan in April and increased the daily crude oil supply in May to 411,000 barrels. However, the motivation for compensatory production cuts in some countries is insufficient. The US crude oil production is still near a historical high, and other non - OPEC + countries are also releasing production capacity, resulting in large supply pressure [6]. - **Demand**: The most panicked period of the global trade war has passed, but the global economic growth rate is expected to decline. The three major crude oil institutions have lowered their forecasts for the global crude oil demand growth rate. May is the off - season for global crude oil consumption [6]. - **Price Outlook**: Given the repeated tariff policies and large price fluctuations, it is recommended to take a light - position short - selling approach [6]. Asphalt - **Supply**: Last week, the asphalt operating rate rebounded by 2.0 percentage points to 30.7%, higher than the same period last year. The expected production in May is 2.318 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 29,000 tons (1.3%) and a year - on - year increase of 30,000 tons (1.3%) [11]. - **Demand**: Last week, the downstream operating rate of asphalt increased. The road asphalt operating rate increased by 4.5 percentage points to 24.5%. The actual demand still needs to be restored [11]. - **Price Outlook**: With both supply and demand increasing and large fluctuations in crude oil, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [11]. PP - **Supply**: The operating rate of PP enterprises has risen to about 78.5%, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawn yarn remains at about 29%. Exxon's two sets of equipment in Huizhou have been put into production, and there are many maintenance devices recently [13]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate of PP has decreased slightly, and the demand recovery is slow [12][13]. - **Price Outlook**: It is expected to trade in a volatile manner [13]. Plastic - **Supply**: The plastic operating rate has dropped to about 91%. New production capacities such as Wanhua Chemical, Inner Mongolia Baofeng 2, and ExxonMobil Huizhou Phase I have been put into production, and some maintenance devices have restarted recently [14]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate of PE is basically stable. The agricultural film season is coming to an end, and the packaging film orders have increased slightly. The downstream demand has not fully recovered, and the new orders are slow to follow up [14]. - **Price Outlook**: It is expected to trade weakly in a volatile manner. It is recommended to close the short - position on the basis of the plastic 05 contract for profit [14]. PVC - **Supply**: The PVC operating rate has increased to 78.63%. The spring inspection scale in April is less than that of last year, and the operating rate is expected to rise slightly this week [15][16]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate of PVC has not changed much and is still low compared to previous years. The real - estate data from January to March has slightly improved, but the year - on - year figures are still negative [16]. - **Price Outlook**: It is expected to trade weakly in a volatile manner in the near term [16]. Urea - **Supply**: The operating rate has increased, and the daily output has exceeded 200,000 tons. Some factories still have复产 plans after the May Day holiday [17]. - **Demand**: The holiday stocking is basically over. The demand from agricultural dealers is limited, and the demand from compound fertilizer factories is the main source. The demand for urea is expected to increase slightly after the summer fertilizer demand is released [17]. - **Price Outlook**: The current trading board is affected by negative sentiment, and the demand is weakening. There may be a corrective rebound after the agricultural demand starts [17]. Futures Market Overview - **Closing Prices**: As of April 29, most domestic futures main contracts fell. The container shipping index (European line) fell by more than 7%, and pulp and alumina fell by more than 3%. In terms of gains, staple fiber, asphalt, and international copper rose by nearly 1%. Among stock - index futures, the IF main contract fell by 0.20%, the IH main contract fell by 0.35%, the IC main contract rose by 0.23%, and the IM main contract rose by 0.70%. Among treasury - bond futures, the TS main contract rose by 0.01%, the TF main contract rose by 0.13%, the T main contract rose by 0.23%, and the TL main contract rose by 0.69% [8][9]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:18, funds flowed into alumina 2509 (460 million), CSI 1000 2506 (397 million), and ten - year treasury bonds 2506 (268 million). Funds flowed out of Shanghai gold 2506 (1.381 billion), Shanghai silver 2506 (486 million), and palm oil 2509 (298 million) [9].
美债市场大波动,德银Q1净利润暴增39%,因关税提高信贷拨备|财报见闻
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-04-29 08:46
在特朗普关税政策掀起的市场动荡中,德银的债券和货币交易收入创下十二年新高,推动公司一季度营 收增长9.6%,净利润暴增39%。同时,德银因美国加征关税可能带来的影响增加信贷拨备,管理层警告 全球贸易战阴云依然笼罩市场。 德意志银行周二公布第一季度财报。关键财务数据如下: 这些业绩标志着德银完成了一个重要的里程碑——该行现已收复了2015年至2019年期间的全部亏损。德 银首席执行官Christian Sewing表示: 第一季度的结果使我们有望实现2025年的全部目标。 交易业务创纪录 一季度业绩的强劲表现,部分归功于其全球投资银行业务在波动性市场环境下的债券和货币交易业务表 现抢眼。 德银固收和货币交易业务第一季度收入飙升17%至29亿欧元,创下2013年以来的最高水平,这也超出了 分析师的预期。 虽然不良贷款拨备同比减少27%,但整体信贷损失拨备增至4.71亿欧元,比预期高16%。该行特别提到 为表现良好的贷款额外增加了1.3亿欧元的拨备,这部分包括"与美国地缘政治和宏观经济前景不确定性 相关的叠加因素"。 Sewing在给员工的备忘录中警告: 潜在的全球贸易战阴影仍笼罩在市场之上。虽然我们希望局势不会恶 ...
欧洲央行调查:欧元区通胀预期在美关税前上升
news flash· 2025-04-29 08:05
欧洲央行调查:欧元区通胀预期在美关税前上升 金十数据4月29日讯,欧洲央行周二调查显示,在美国对大多数国家加征关税、发起可能削弱经济增长 的全球贸易战之前,欧元区消费者在3月提高了对未来几年的通胀预期。未来12个月的通胀预期为 2.9%,高于上月调查的2.6%;未来三年通胀预期从2.4%升至2.5%。尽管此类上升通常会引起欧洲央行 警惕,但该数据采集于美国加征关税前,而关税政策已根本性改变全球经济前景。欧元走强、能源价格 下跌、经济增长可能减弱,这些因素都有可能降低物价增长。由于前景发生了巨大变化,欧洲央行在4 月再次降息,并警告经济增长乏力。一些政策制定者甚至认为通胀目标再次失守2%的风险。 ...
美媒爆特朗普拟调整汽车关税政策以减轻冲击,网友:覆水难收,美国已彻底透支其信誉
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-04-29 02:22
Group 1 - The Trump administration is expected to take measures to alleviate the impact of its auto tariff policy, including preventing the stacking of tariffs on imported cars and easing tariffs on certain imported auto parts [1][4] - The decision will have retroactive effects, allowing car manufacturers who have already paid tariffs to apply for refunds [1][4] - The new measures include adjustments to the previously announced 25% tariff on foreign auto parts, with potential tax refunds for manufacturers based on the value of cars produced domestically [4][5] Group 2 - The 25% tariff on imported cars and key auto parts officially took effect on May 3, which is seen as a significant escalation in the trade war following tariffs on steel and aluminum [4][5] - The tariffs are expected to have a severe impact on economies of neighboring countries like Canada and Mexico, as well as allies such as the EU, Japan, and South Korea, prompting strong reactions from foreign governments [4][5] - Many U.S. companies and media outlets express concerns that the auto tariffs could negatively affect the U.S. economy, with predictions of increased car costs for consumers and potential job losses in the auto industry [5]
冠通每日交易策略-20250428
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 11:11
地址:北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层(100020) 总机:010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期:2025 年 4 月 28 日 热点品种 沥青: 供应端,上周沥青开工率环比回升 2.0 个百分点至 30.7%,较去年同期高了 7.1 个百分点,沥青开工率继续回升,升至近年同期中性偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据, 5 月份预计排产 231.8 万吨,环比增加 2.9 万吨,增幅为 1.3%,同比增加 3 万 吨,增幅为 1.3%。上周沥青下游开工率环比提升,其中道路沥青开工环比增加 4.5 个百分点至 24.5%,开工率提升较快,但仍处于偏低水平。上周炼厂复产叠 加节前备货,沥青出货量增加明显,全国出货量环比增加 42.42%至 29.11 万吨, 升至中性偏低位。沥青炼厂库存存货比上周环比略有下降,仍处于近年来同期的 最低位,南方有降雨间歇影响,沥青实际需求仍有待恢复。4 月 16 日,美国财政 部制裁购买伊朗原油的山东胜星化工,表示要将伊朗的非法石油出口降至零。近 期美国加大对伊朗的制裁,美伊第三轮间接会谈结束,伊朗外长阿拉格齐表示, 双方仍存在分歧。但双方承诺会 ...
国际观察丨多国媒体和专家批评美国滥施关税
Xin Hua She· 2025-04-27 22:52
"全球贸易战的始作俑者" ——多国媒体和专家批评美国滥施关税 科摩罗主流网络媒体科摩罗新闻网批评美国以"全球贸易警察"自居发起关税战,不仅是蓄意挑 衅,更是犯下战略错误,由此引发的经济紧张局势让世界变得十分脆弱。 克罗地亚经济分析师佩塔尔·武什科维奇表示,美国关税政策可能成为"全球经济衰退的导火索"。 从全球股市剧烈波动可以看出,经济衰退迹象已经显现,所有利益相关方都面临美国带来的风 险。 美国新一届政府上台后,推出一系列规模大、范围广、破坏性强的关税政策,引发国际社会广泛 批评。多国人士及国际舆论指出,美国单方面挑起全球贸易战并将关税工具化、武器化,美方霸 凌胁迫之举逆世界潮流而动,只会害人害己。 将世界经济置于危险境地 如果将一系列最新关税措施相叠加,美国关税税率将攀升至一个多世纪以来最高水平。不少媒体 报道说,美国在历史上屡次挑起贸易战,当前做法更是变本加厉。 彭博社刊文将美国称作"全球贸易战的始作俑者"。文章说,如果所谓"对等关税"全部生效,这将 是美国自1968年以来最大规模的一次加税,而"白宫没有任何后备措施来避免经济衰退"。 斯里兰卡卫报网刊文说,美国继近一个世纪前发动全球贸易战后,如今再次挥舞 ...
4.27周评 黄金会不会延续跌势?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-27 07:07
Group 1 - The article discusses the recent performance of gold, highlighting a long upper shadow candlestick pattern and a drop from the 3500 level to around 3260, questioning whether the downward trend will continue [3] - It mentions that the Federal Reserve's financial report identifies global trade wars and policy uncertainty as major risks to financial stability, contributing to concerns about the value of the US dollar [3] - The article notes that comments from Federal Reserve officials about a potential interest rate cut in June, along with geopolitical instability, provide short-term support for gold prices [3] Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates that after the drop from 3500, gold has experienced three consecutive days of significant fluctuations, with clear support and resistance levels identified at 3385 and 3260 [3] - For trading strategies, the initial support level is set at 3300, with strong support noted between 3260-70, while key resistance is at 3385 [5] - The article suggests that if the price does not continue to rise after 10 AM, a downward trend may occur, particularly if the upper boundary of the daily fluctuation at 3385 is not breached [3][5]
美联储金融稳定报告:全球贸易战和政策不确定性是金融稳定的最大风险
news flash· 2025-04-25 20:10
美联储金融稳定报告:全球贸易战和政策不确定性是金融稳定的最大风险 美联储周五公布的最新金融稳定报告显示,全球贸易风险上升、总体政策不确定性以及美国债务的可持 续性高居美国金融体系潜在风险的榜首。这是自特朗普重返白宫以来,美联储首次对金融风险进行半年 一次的调查。73%的受访者表示,全球贸易风险是他们最担心的问题,这一比例是11月份报告的两倍 多。半数受访者认为,总体政策不确定性是最令人担忧的问题,这一比例较去年同期有所上升。调查还 发现,与近期市场动荡相关的问题受到了更多关注,27%的受访者担心美国国债市场的运转,高于去年 秋季的17%。外国对美国资产的撤资和美元的价值也在担忧名单上上升。 ...
机构:英国消费者对特朗普关税感到恐慌 对经济状况的信心创一年最低
news flash· 2025-04-23 23:50
英国零售业联盟(BRC)周四发布的一项调查显示,美国总统特朗普本月早些时候宣布的关税举措引发的 全球金融市场动荡令英国购物者感到恐慌。BRC表示,4月份消费者对经济状况的信心指数从3月份的负 35降至负48,为至少一年来的最低水平。这项调查基于4月4日至4月7日期间对2000名消费者进行的调 查,此前不久,特朗普宣布加征10%的最低关税,并对美国大多数主要贸易伙伴加征更高的关税,引发 了人们对全球贸易战的担忧。 ...