越南在当前的国际贸易环境中，始终扮演着一个复杂的角色。从急于野蛮生长到背负压力而妥协，越南的选择值得我们深思。未来，越南必须重新审 视与大国间的关系，以更为长远的眼光布局，以确保自身在国际经济舞台上的稳定成长。在风云变幻的全球经济形势中，越南能否找到一条适合自己 的发展道路，值得我们拭目以待。 在特朗普与越南达成的贸易协议中，越南同意全面开放市场，以零关税对待美国商品。然而，该协议所换来的却只是特朗普轻微的让步：对越南加征 的关税从46%下调至20%。换句话说，尽管美国在一定程度上放松了对越的贸易限制，但越南同样面临着被迫迎合特朗普要求的局面。更重要的是， 这份协议明确指出，任何通过越南转口至美国的商品，都将被征收40%的关税，这意味着中国商品经越南进入美国市场的可能性将基本被封死。 正如一些分析人士所言，越南的这种策略似乎是自我设限。在短期内，越南或许能够借助与美国的合作获得经济利益，但长期来看，这种以牺牲他国 利益为代价的妥协，必然会使越南在国际贸易中面临更大的风险。 值得注意的是，越南对外经济的高度依赖，使得其在与美国的谈判中处于劣势。根据统计，去年越南对美出口达到1200亿美元，占其GDP的近29%。 ...

Group 1 - The core agreement between Indonesia and U.S. companies is valued at $34 billion, which includes the purchase of U.S. soybeans, corn, and energy products [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing threats from Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz have heightened global market tensions, emphasizing the strategic importance of this waterway in global transportation [1][3]. Group 1: Historical Significance of the Strait - The Strait of Hormuz has historically served as a critical maritime trade route, evolving through different trade network versions from the 15th century to the present [1][2]. - The first version of trade networks was localized within the Persian Gulf, facilitating commerce between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula [1]. - The second version integrated the Indian Ocean trade route, with Indian merchants exporting textiles and spices to Hormuz, while Hormuz traders exchanged horses and precious metals [2]. Group 2: Current Strategic Importance - The Strait of Hormuz is now recognized as the only maritime exit for Persian Gulf oil, significantly increasing its strategic value as a key route for oil exports to Europe, North America, and Asia [3]. - Approximately 100 large oil tankers pass through the Strait daily, with an average oil flow of 20 million barrels per day projected for 2024, accounting for about 20% of global liquid oil consumption [3]. - The Strait also handles 20% of global liquefied natural gas trade, reinforcing its status as a critical energy transport corridor [3]. Group 3: Challenges and Alternatives - Despite the heavy reliance on the Strait, alternative transportation routes are limited due to high costs and logistical challenges associated with pipeline construction and maintenance [4]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has indicated that if the Strait were to close, there are virtually no viable alternatives for oil transport, highlighting the Strait's unique position in global energy supply [4]. Group 4: Market Impact and Economic Consequences - The threat of closure has already led to a doubling of rental prices for large oil tankers, significantly exceeding the Baltic Exchange's crude oil tanker index [5]. - Analysts predict that a closure would lead to increased transportation costs and supply shortages, potentially driving oil prices to between $120 and $130 per barrel, reminiscent of past oil crises [5][6]. - The closure of the Strait would severely impact economies reliant on Middle Eastern oil, particularly in Europe, where diesel imports from the region are crucial [6].

印度方面表示，印度保留权利，若美国措施对印度贸易造成不利影响，将暂停相应的优惠和其他义务。 ...

Summary of BoHui Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - BoHui Co., Ltd. is located in Ningbo Zhenhai, with its production base in the Ningbo Chemical Park, a national first-class chemical park. The company specializes in deep processing of fuel oil and specialty oils, including transformer oil, lubricating base oil, heat transfer oil, and furnace fuel oil. The company operates in various sectors such as rubber processing, asphalt processing, and photovoltaic new materials. It is listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Profit Improvement in Q1 2025 - The profit improvement in Q1 2025 is attributed to several factors: - Shift in business model from domestic sales to international trade, leveraging the export advantages of the Zhoushan Free Trade Zone [2][3]. - Product structure optimization, including the development of transformer oil and positioning for the cooling needs of computing servers [2][3]. - Technical upgrades to enhance raw material stability and product added value, leading to improved capacity utilization [2][4]. - Internal management cost optimization, including reduced management costs and streamlined processes [2][4]. Product Performance - High-sulfur fuel oil and fuel oils numbered 5-7 performed well, with an increasing export ratio. White oil and base oil remained stable, while asphalt production may be paused due to poor initial demonstration performance, with flexibility to adjust production based on market demand [2][5]. Raw Material Price Volatility Management - BoHui Co., Ltd. manages raw material price volatility through inventory adjustments and hedging strategies. If import prices are too high, the company may reduce purchase volumes. A dedicated team is established for futures trading to mitigate price risks during the procurement to sales cycle [2][6][7]. Competitive Advantages - The company has several competitive advantages: - Advanced technology using the Dutch jump process, leading to high technical content and a shorter establishment time for the second plant [2][8]. - Significant investment in safety and environmental protection, reducing regulatory risks [2][8]. - International presence with branches in Singapore and a trading company in Beijing, enhancing procurement and market intelligence [2][8]. - Strong product R&D and quality control capabilities, ensuring stable product performance [2][8]. - A cash-on-delivery sales model that accelerates cash flow [2][9]. Impact of State-Owned Shareholder Change - The change of the controlling shareholder to a state-owned platform is expected to enhance the company's stability, increase funding availability, deepen business channels, improve employee welfare, and adjust strategic layouts for quality and scale enhancement [2][9][10]. Digital Transformation - BoHui Co., Ltd. has made significant investments in digitalization, achieving recognition as a future factory in Zhejiang Province and a national-level intelligent manufacturing demonstration factory. However, due to poor performance in 2025, future digital investment plans remain uncertain [2][18]. Market and Tax Policy Impacts - The change in the consumption tax policy for refined oil from amount-based to production-based has impacted the company's overall capacity [2][13]. The company plans to adjust production structures in response to the underperformance of asphalt products and aims to enhance the yield of high-value white oil products through technical upgrades [2][14][15]. Future Plans - Currently, BoHui Co., Ltd. does not have plans to expand into overseas markets but aims to establish more international cooperation for raw material procurement, focusing on direct sourcing from suppliers in the Middle East and Singapore [2][20][21]. Other Important Information - The BoYue New Materials project was closed due to funding constraints and potential policy adjustments, with the government refunding the land costs [2][11]. The company is focusing on stabilizing existing business segments before expanding [2][11]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's strategic adjustments, product performance, competitive advantages, and future outlook.

Core Viewpoint - FedEx is facing growth challenges due to economic headwinds, but its strong financials and dividend yield make it a reliable investment option [2][9]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending May 31, FedEx reported revenue of $22.2 billion, nearly unchanged from the previous year's $22.1 billion, with net income increasing from $1.47 billion to $1.65 billion [4]. - The company exceeded Wall Street expectations with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $6.07, surpassing estimates of $5.84, attributed to effective cost-cutting measures [5]. Dividend Analysis - FedEx currently pays a quarterly dividend of $1.45, recently increased by 5% from $1.38, resulting in an annual payout of $5.80 per share [6]. - The payout ratio stands at approximately 33%, indicating sustainability and potential for future dividend increases [7]. Growth Outlook - FedEx anticipates flat to 2% revenue growth for the current fiscal year, reflecting ongoing economic challenges [5]. - Despite recent struggles, the company is well-positioned to benefit from the growth in e-commerce and international trade in the long term [9]. Investment Consideration - The stock has experienced a 19% decline in value this year, but its fundamentals remain solid, making it a potential buy during market weakness [10]. - Trading at 12 times estimated future earnings, FedEx is viewed as a solid income-generating stock for long-term investors [10].

中国商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院学术委员会副主任张建平在《人民日报》发表署名文章表示，中美 经贸关系是经济全球化和亚太区域经济合作的共同产物。中美加强对话和合作，才能在可持续生产、可 持续贸易和可持续消费的道路上不断前行，为世界经济注入更多确定性和稳定性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that international trade, particularly the Sino-American trade relationship, is based on mutual cooperation rather than a zero-sum game, and that the U.S. trade deficit with China is a result of its own economic structure rather than a failure of Chinese trade practices [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Contributing to U.S. Trade Deficit - The U.S. has a low savings rate, with personal savings at 3.8% as of December 2024, while consumption accounts for about 70% of GDP, leading to a demand for imports that exceeds domestic production capacity [2]. - The hollowing out of U.S. manufacturing has seen the sector's contribution to GDP drop from approximately 25% in 1960 to around 10% currently, with manufacturing jobs decreasing from nearly 20 million in 1979 to just over 12 million today [2]. - The U.S. dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency necessitates maintaining a trade deficit to provide international liquidity, which contributes to the long-term existence of the trade deficit [2]. Group 2: Misconceptions About Trade Deficit - Viewing the trade deficit as a loss is misleading; trade should be assessed based on overall economic benefits, including profits and value added, rather than just trade balances [3]. - Although China has a trade surplus with the U.S., it still relies on imports of key components from the U.S. and other developed countries, and it purchases significant services from the U.S., indicating a more complex economic relationship [3]. Group 3: Impact of Tariffs and Policy Recommendations - Imposing tariffs is unlikely to resolve the trade deficit and may harm the U.S. economy by increasing import costs, raising inflation, and ultimately burdening consumers and businesses [4]. - A study predicts that a broad 20% tariff could cost the average American household up to $4,200 annually [4]. - To address issues like manufacturing decline and wealth distribution, the U.S. should focus on internal reforms in education, manufacturing competitiveness, and infrastructure rather than blaming other countries [4].

2025 年 6 月 27 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 白银、铜、铝、锌、工业硅、多晶 硅、碳酸锂、螺纹钢、铁矿石、焦煤、纯碱、PVC 期货将偏 强震荡 原油、燃料油期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2509 阻力位 3928 和 3964 点，支撑位 3889 和 3872 点；IH2509 阻力位 2728 和 2750 点，支撑位 2697 和 2682 点；IC2509 阻力位 5771 和 5838 点，支撑位 5690 和 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since January 20th when Trump took office, the ratio of SP contract price to NR contract price has strengthened from 0.39 to 0.43. Pulp's resistance to decline and the opportunity to stabilize after negative factors are realized are worth attention [66]. - The weak macro - environment suppresses both the upstream import and downstream export of pulp, resulting in relatively less negative impact on pulp in a weak pattern [66]. - The impact of the temporary shutdown of Finnpulp's Joutseno plant is limited. The long - fiber import volume has increased compared to the same period last year, which will offset the impact of the shutdown [71]. - The import, inventory, and consumption data of hardwood pulp show a trend of tightening balance, but hardwood pulp is still weak. It is advisable to wait and see the hardwood - softwood pulp spread [71]. - The operating conditions of the domestic papermaking industry have an increasing influence on pulp prices, but the current domestic data is not consistently bearish or bullish [71]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Technical Analysis - Pulp - Rubber Spread and Commodity Turnover Rate - Since June, the communication between Chinese and US leaders and high - level consultations in London have eased trade relations, reducing negative factors for commodities. However, the reduction of negative factors for pulp is relatively small, and there is still an opportunity to enter the market when the spread reaches the previous low [6]. - Israel's full - scale attack on Iran this week led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices. The commodity turnover rate on June 13th verified that the 84% correlation between pulp and crude oil comes from consistent downstream consumption expectations. When crude oil price changes are due to supply, the impact on pulp is small; when due to consumption, the guidance for pulp price is strong [6]. 3.2 SP Single - Side - US Policy and International Oil Price - From June to now, the US economic policy uncertainty index has declined for the second consecutive month, reaching 432.6 points. Its 12 - month average increased by 77.1% year - on - year, hitting a new high since April 2021, with 12 consecutive months of expanding growth, which is negative for SP single - side [13]. - In May, international oil prices decreased month - on - month, reaching $62.8 per barrel. Its 3 - month average decreased by 23.9% year - on - year, with 4 consecutive months of expanding decline, which is negative for SP single - side [13]. 3.3 SP Single - Side - International Trade & Dollar Index - In May, China's total import and export volume decreased month - on - month, reaching $529 billion. Its 6 - month cumulative value increased by 2.1% year - on - year, with 2 consecutive months of narrowing growth, which is positive for SP valuation [19]. - In May, the real broad - based dollar index decreased for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 116.6 points. Its 9 - month average increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with 15 consecutive months of marginal increase. The general cycle of the dollar index is 23 months, which is negative for SP single - side [19]. 3.4 SP Single - Side - Canadian Trade and Global Stock Market - In April, Canada's total import and export volume decreased month - on - month, reaching 128 billion Canadian dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. It lags behind pulp prices and the negative impact has been fully realized [26]. - In April, the global stock market capitalization increased slightly month - on - month, reaching $119.9 trillion. Its 12 - month cumulative value increased by 7.5% year - on - year, with 3 consecutive months of narrowing growth [26]. 3.5 SP Single - Side - Softwood Data - The Joutseno softwood pulp mill of Finnpulp has temporarily shut down. In May, the inventory of European bleached softwood pulp decreased month - on - month to 238,000 tons, and consumption increased by 269,000 tons. The inventory - to - sales ratio was 0.89 times. The 12 - month average inventory increased by 4.7% year - on - year, with 6 consecutive months of marginal inventory increase, which is negative for SP single - side but with limited amplitude [32]. - In April, domestic softwood chip imports remained flat at 9,000 tons, and softwood pulp imports decreased month - on - month to 838,000 tons. The total long - fiber import was 843,000 tons. The 6 - month cumulative value decreased by 8.2% year - on - year, with 6 consecutive months of narrowing decline, which is negative for SP single - side but with limited amplitude [32]. 3.6 Inventory - SP Single - Side & Hardwood - Softwood Spread - In May, the social inventory of pulp in ports including Qingdao, Changshu, Gaolan, and Tianjin increased month - on - month to 2.159 million tons. The SP inventory decreased month - on - month to 275,200 tons. The total of social and futures inventory was 2.434 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%, which is negative for SP single - side and has been fully realized [39]. - In May, the ratio of social inventory to futures inventory was 7.84 times. Its 6 - month average increased by 35.4% year - on - year, which is negative for the hardwood - softwood pulp spread but with limited amplitude [39]. 3.7 SP Single - Side - Import and Export - In May, the domestic pulp import value increased month - on - month to $1.906 billion. In April, the US pulp import value decreased month - on - month to $308 million. The combined value (with a one - month lag) was $2.214 billion. Its 3 - month cumulative value decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, with 2 consecutive months of expanding decline, which is negative for SP single - side but with limited amplitude [46]. - In May, the total export value of paper products from Japan, South Korea, and Brazil was $565 million. Its 3 - month cumulative value decreased by 5.4% year - on - year, with 2 consecutive months of expanding decline [46]. 3.8 SP Single - Side - Domestic Papermaking Output and Inventory - In April, the electricity consumption of the domestic papermaking industry decreased month - on - month to 838 million kWh. The 12 - month cumulative electricity consumption increased by 0.6% year - on - year, with 9 consecutive months of narrowing growth, which is negative for SP single - side [53]. - In April, the finished product inventory of the domestic papermaking industry increased for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 77.57 billion yuan. The 12 - month average inventory increased by 5.6% year - on - year, with 13 consecutive months of marginal inventory increase [53]. 3.9 Hardwood - Softwood Pulp Spread - Import and Output - In April, the import of hardwood chips was 994,000 tons, the lowest since August 2023. The import of hardwood pulp decreased to 1.204 million tons, softwood chips remained flat at 9,000 tons, and softwood pulp decreased to 838,000 tons. The ratio of short - fiber to long - fiber import was 2.02 times. Its 12 - month average increased by 13.5% year - on - year, with 3 consecutive months of narrowing growth, which is positive for the hardwood - softwood pulp spread [59]. - In May, the consumption of hardwood pulp in domestic papermaking was 2.274 million tons, and that of softwood pulp was 534,000 tons. The consumption ratio was 4.26 times. Its 9 - month average increased by 7.1% year - on - year, with 7 consecutive months of expanding growth [59].