Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on China Reinsurance Group with an "Overweight" rating, highlighting its dominant position in the Chinese reinsurance market with a projected market share of nearly 50% in 2024 [1][9][14]. Core Insights - China Reinsurance Group is positioned as a benchmark in the Chinese reinsurance industry, benefiting from unique product offerings that help alleviate capital pressure on life insurance companies. The company is expected to experience growth rates higher than direct insurance companies throughout economic cycles [1][9][14]. - The demand for financial reinsurance contracts is anticipated to increase due to macroeconomic pressures, particularly from life insurance companies facing solvency challenges. This positions China Re as a critical player in the market [1][4][29]. - The company has a significant overseas business exposure, contributing approximately 15% to its total premium income, which helps diversify business risks and provides foreign exchange hedging benefits [1][4][14]. Summary by Sections Investment Rationale - The overall reinsurance industry in China is projected to see a rise in gross written premiums (GWP) to RMB 228 billion in 2024, with China Re holding a market share of about 50% [13][14]. - The report emphasizes the company's unique business model and its ability to maintain lower volatility in underwriting performance compared to direct insurers, which typically experience more significant fluctuations [13][14]. Financial Performance - China Re's consolidated GWP is expected to reach approximately RMB 178 billion (USD 25 billion) in 2024, with a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.2% from 2019 to 2024 [13][14]. - The report forecasts a net profit growth of 87% for 2024, driven by strong underwriting performance and favorable investment results [38]. Valuation - The report employs a price-to-earnings (P/E) valuation method, suggesting a target price of HKD 1.40 by December 2025, based on a P/E ratio of 5 times the expected earnings for fiscal year 2025 [9][14][23]. - The valuation is considered conservative compared to the average P/E ratios of 6-8 times for global reinsurance peers, reflecting China Re's market dominance and growth potential [9][14][23]. Overseas Business Strategy - The acquisition of Bridge Insurance in 2018 has significantly enhanced China Re's overseas business, with this segment now contributing 15% to total premium income, up from 3% in 2018 [46][48]. - The report highlights the advantages of having a diversified overseas business, including risk mitigation from regional catastrophes and improved asset-liability management [46][48].

万腾外汇认为更深层的推力来自避险模式的切换。以往当地缘冲突或金融震荡升温时，全球资金会涌向 美元现金和短端美债；但眼下，美国国债久期风险与财政赤字压力频频被评级机构敲警钟，投资者转而 通过衍生品加大货币对冲，以规避美元波动。这种"买资产不买货币"的做法，使得外资流入不再自动转 换为美元净需求，反而在交割时形成额外卖压，放大了指数下行幅度。 外汇对冲比例的上升意味着，美元未来走势将更依赖基本面而非单纯资金流。若美国核心通胀持续回 落、美联储提前转向，美元仍有进一步下探至101—102指数区间的可能；反之，一旦油价受供应扰动再 启通胀预期，美债收益率重新抬头，部分对冲仓位或被迫回补，届时跌势或出现技术性反弹。对投资者 而言，真正需要关注的已不是美元是否还会走弱，而是美元波动的主导变量已从单边利差切换到多维风 险定价，策略思路也应从"方向押注"转向"波动管理"。 利率端的变化是跌势的导火索。尽管美联储重申"更高更久"，但通胀回落与就业趋弱让市场更倾向于相 信2026年前将开启宽松周期，联邦基金期货已计入逾150个基点的累计降息预期。与之相对，欧洲央 行、日本央行陆续退出负利率并暗示平滑升息路径，美元相对收益优势被挤 ...

Core Insights - Xiaomi is set to release the YU7 model, with CEO Lei Jun discussing anticipated pricing and features ahead of the launch [1][3] - Lei Jun has denied speculation that the YU7 standard version will be priced 20,000 to 30,000 higher than the SU7, emphasizing that the YU7's standard version has high-end features comparable to competitors' Max and Ultra versions [3][5] - The YU7 boasts impressive specifications, including a CLTC range of 835 km, laser radar, and the latest Nvidia Thor chip with 700 TOPS computing power [3][5] Pricing Strategy - Lei Jun's comments appear to be aimed at elevating the perceived value of the YU7, creating anticipation for a competitive pricing strategy that may surprise consumers [5] - Historically, Xiaomi's pricing strategy involves offering superior configurations at a lower price point compared to competitors, with the YU7 expected to be priced between 249,000 and 259,000 yuan, potentially under 250,000 yuan for a "surprise price" [5] - The YU7 is positioned against the Model Y, which is priced at 263,500 yuan, indicating Xiaomi's intent to disrupt the market with a more attractive offering [5] Market Impact - Lei Jun expressed confidence that the launch of the YU7 will not negatively impact the sales of the SU7, as both models cater to distinct consumer preferences for sedans and SUVs [7]

换言之，小米YU7根本不愁卖，将挑战"史诗级神作"Model Y，这对其供应链和产能提出严峻考验。可 以预见的是，明晚小米YU7价格一公布，就到了拼手速环节，早下定早排产，晚下定的话，运气好多等 几个星期交付，运气不好则手慢无，因为可能用不了多久就会一抢而空。 对此，他表示，"网上有不少人在猜价格，YU7标准版比SU7标准版贵两万到三万。我已经公开否认 过，因为YU7标准版配置很高，放在行业里，相当于友商的Max版甚至Ultra版的配置。" 的确，此前雷军已排除两个错误选项：19.9万元、23.59万元。如今，他又暗示24.59万元也不可能，并 带大家重温小米YU7的配置，包括CLTC续航835KM、激光雷达、英伟达最新Thor芯片700TOPS算力、 天际屏等。雷军建议，大家猜价格时还得"讲讲科学"。 至于定价多少，他先卖个关子，等到明晚发布会上再正式公布，"到时候，大家一定会觉得，这个价格 是合理的。"对了，此前有网友让小米副董事长林斌说服雷军小米YU7卖25.59万元，他直截了当地回 复"不行"，看来小米YU7标准版的价格确实并不便宜。 雷军曾透露，小米YU7定价将在开售前1-2天确定。考虑到小米YU7 ...

一路 "狂飙" 的增长之路 信用债 ETF 能在短时间内取得如此惊人的成绩，背后离不开一系列关键时间节点的推动和政策的大力支持。今年 1 月，证监会印发的《促进资本市场指 数化投资高质量发展行动方案》犹如一颗信号弹，提出 "稳步拓展债券 ETF"，并部署 "稳妥推出基准做市信用债 ETF""研究将信用债 ETF 纳入债券通用 回购质押库" 等重要举措 。政策东风一吹，市场迅速响应。1 月 7 日，首批 8 只信用债 ETF 同日火热发售，1 月 16 日结束募集，1 月 27 日全部敲定上市 时间，在上交所与深交所相继上市交易，整个过程一气呵成，跑出了资本市场的 "加速度"，募集总规模达 218 亿元，为后续的规模增长奠定了坚实基 础。 3 月 21 日晚间，中国证券登记结算公司又连续发文出台三项举措，允许信用债 ETF 试点开展交易所质押式回购、拓宽受信用保护债券回购范围、暂免部 分债券登记结算费用 。其中，允许符合一定条件的信用债 ETF 产品试点开展交易所债券通用质押式回购业务，这一举措满足了市场对信用债 ETF 入库开 展回购交易的需要，大大提高了信用债 ETF 产品的流动性、吸引力和交易活跃度，推动 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 25 日 集运指数（欧线）：偏弱运行，10 空单酌情减仓 止盈 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2506 | 1,888.1 | 0.16% | 1,178 | 2,776 | -585 | 0.42 | | 0.15 | | 期货 | EC2508 | 1,772.0 | -7.00% | 71,614 | 44,791 | -2,262 | 1.60 | | 1.50 | | | EC2510 | 1,304.6 | -5.53% | 21,428 | 31,621 | 107 | 0.68 | | 0.49 | | | ...

智通财经APP获悉，美国国债市场的交易员们正在大举通过期权押注10年期美债收益率下行，认为美联储主席鲍威 尔在美国国会释放出"不排除7月降息"的重磅宽松信号催化降息预期大幅升温，加之近期美联储官员们普遍的鸽派表 态以及中东局势仍然紧张的宏观经济背景下，有着"全球资产定价之锚"称号的10年期美国国债收益率将迈向跌至4% 以下的显著下行轨迹——即押注该收益率曲线将跌至4月以来最低水平。 有统计数据显示，这类押注在上周五以及本周交易日以来共支付了至少3800万美元期权权利金，主要集中在8月到期 的10年期美债期权看涨合约，旨在对冲10年期美债收益率从当前约4.3% 大幅降至4%或者以下的风险(美债收益率与 美债价格之间呈反向变动关系)，体现出降息预期在今年首次全面升级，时隔半年之久再一次席卷全球金融市场。尤 其是交易员们当前将进一步降息预期纳入曲线前端，互换定价显示7月降息的概率近日显著增长。 若10年期美债收益率如市场所预期那样直接跌至4以下%，将触及自所谓"解放日"——即自4月2日美国总统特朗普意 外宣布向全球大幅加征关税后市场动荡以来最低水平，也意味着与5月美债收益率阶段性的高点(逾4.6%)相比大幅回 落。 ...

夜盘原油系期货继续下跌，SC原油跌超8%，机构分析表示，后续若地缘冲突确定性缓和，原油将重回 基本面定价主导，短期地缘冲突或仍有余温，油价维持震荡格局。 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

英国央行行长贝利：对英国财政空间估计的过度解读存在风险，金融市场不应对财政政策进行定价。 ...

报告导读： ① 上周日韩股市表现较强，不同市场中能源、科技、防御板块各有表现。 ② 美联储议息会议放鹰致流动性趋紧，南向继续流入港股。 ③美国花旗经济意外指数大幅回 落， 中国、欧洲景气预期有所好转。 市场表现：上周日韩股市表现最佳。 股市方面， MSCI 全球 -0.3% ，其中 MSCI 发达 -0.3% 、 MSCI 新兴 +0.0% 。债市方面，德国 10Y 国债利率上升幅度最大。大宗方面，国际原油价格继续上 涨。汇率方面，美元升，英镑贬，日元贬，人民币升。分板块看，上周美股能源 + 科技板块较优，港股 科技小幅收涨，欧股防御板块更强。 交投情绪：上周全球股市成交分化，其中欧美股市成交放量。 从成交量 / 成交额看，上周恒指成交下 降，标普 500 、欧洲 Stoxx50 成交上升。从投资者情绪看，港股投资者情绪环比上升、处历史偏高位， 美股投资者情绪上升、处历史高位。从波动率看，上周港股、美股、日股波动率下降，欧股波动率上升， 美债波动率下降。从估值看，上周发达市场、新兴市场整体估值均较前周下降。 盈利预期：上周全球股市盈利预期多数下修。 横向对比来看，上周欧股 25 年盈利预期边际变化表现最 优， ...