美联储发布的经济褐皮书报告显示，近期结束的美国政府停摆和AI的应用都对求职者前景构成压力。关税和医疗保险成本上升则推高了企业支出，可能 加剧通胀担忧。由于近期政府停摆导致大量经济数据暂停发布，本次褐皮书对美联储决策的重要性可能超过以往。 美联储最新经济调查显示，美国经济活动近期几乎陷入停滞，就业市场持续走弱的同时成本和物价压力依然存在，美联储在12月关键会议上将面临的双 重风险权衡。 周三，美联储发布的经济褐皮书报告显示， 十二个联邦储备区中有半数辖区的雇主招聘意愿下降。近期结束的美国政府停摆和AI的应用都对求职者前 景构成压力。 与此同时，关税和医疗保险成本上升推高了企业支出，可能加剧通胀担忧 。 消费支出出现分化迹象 ，多个辖区的高收入消费者支出保持韧性，但中低 收入家庭正在"勒紧裤腰带"。 由于近期政府停摆导致大量经济数据暂停发布，本次褐皮书对美联储决策的重要性可能超过以往。 目前美联储内部对12月9日至10日会议的政策走向存在分歧。部分官员因劳动力市场放缓而倾向于降息25个基点，另一部分则因通胀居高不下主张将利 率不变。市场目前预计降息概率超八成。 （市场目前预期美联储12月降息概率为81%） 就业市 ...

【加密货币】比特币涨超3%，重返9万美元关口；以太坊涨超2%，报3019.81美元。 智通财经APP获悉，周三，三大指数走高，美国发布的周度初请失业金人数下降，表明就业情况并未恶 化，但美联储褐皮书显示未来几个月经济活动放缓的风险有所增加，机构普遍预期，美联储12月降息的 概率非常大。 【美股】截至收盘，截至收盘，道指涨314.67点，涨幅为0.67%，报47427.12点；纳指涨189.1点，涨幅 为0.82%，报23214.69点；标普500指数涨46.73点，涨幅为0.69%，报6812.61点。英伟达(NVDA.US)涨 1%，谷歌(GOOG.US)跌1%，甲骨文(ORCL.US)涨4%，人造肉公司Beyond Meat(BYND.US)涨19%。纳 斯达克中国金龙指数微跌，阿里巴巴(BABA.US)涨0.3%。 【欧股】德国DAX30指数涨279.54点，涨幅1.19%，报23739.62点；英国富时100指数涨85.57点，涨幅 0.89%，报9695.10点；法国CAC40指数涨70.63点，涨幅0.88%，报8096.43点；欧洲斯托克50指数涨 82.74点，涨幅1.48%，报5656.65 ...

The Federal Reserve's an anecdotal look at the economy shows a sputtering job market and moderate inflation in November. ...

Core Viewpoint - The statements from Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran provide a dovish perspective on the current monetary policy path, advocating for a quicker pace of interest rate cuts to address labor market pressures and suggesting that current inflation data reflects a "structural illusion" that should not delay easing measures [1]. Group 1: Employment and Monetary Policy - Miran attributes the rise in the September unemployment rate from 4.3% to 4.4% directly to the overly tight current monetary policy [3]. - He emphasizes that without timely interest rate reductions, persistently high rates will suppress corporate investment and hiring intentions, leading to further weakening in the labor market [3]. - Miran advocates for a series of 50 basis point cuts to bring rates down to neutral levels to support employment recovery [3]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Conditions - Miran identifies two main factors contributing to the current elevated inflation data: an imbalance in the housing market driving up rental prices and the lagging effects of previous rate hikes [3]. - He argues that these factors are temporary and do not indicate substantial inflationary pressure, suggesting that the Federal Reserve can pursue rate cuts more aggressively without fearing runaway inflation [3]. Group 3: Asset and Balance Sheet Management - In addition to interest rate policy, Miran recommends a conservative approach to balance sheet management, advocating for an increase in short-term Treasury holdings to maintain liquidity while reducing long-term bond and MBS holdings [3]. - He highlights the housing market as a critical channel for monetary policy transmission, noting that rate cuts would help lower mortgage rates and alleviate pressure in the housing market [3]. Group 4: Market Expectations and Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve has already cut rates by 25 basis points in both September and October, with December's potential rate cut being a focal point for the market [4]. - Miran's views reinforce a dovish stance, pushing for larger and faster rate cuts in response to labor market weakness, although concerns from hawkish members about inflation rebound persist [4]. - The ultimate direction of policy will depend on the balance between employment and inflation considerations [4].

Economic Outlook - Economists have raised their median forecast for U.S. economic growth next year to 2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and a significant rise from 1.3% six months ago [4] - The main drivers of economic growth are expected to be personal consumption and business investment, although nearly all economists anticipate that current tariff policies will drag down economic growth by at least 0.25 percentage points [4] Employment Market - The U.S. job market is projected to add approximately 64,000 jobs per month, which is slightly above the current year's end level but still far below recent norms [7] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% at the beginning of next year and remain within this range throughout the year [7] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation is expected to decline to 2.9% by the end of this year and only slightly decrease to 2.6% next year, with new import tariffs contributing an estimated 0.25 to 0.7 percentage points to inflation [7] - Economists predict that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and an additional 50 basis points throughout next year, gradually moving towards a neutral rate [7] Trade Policy Impact - Trade policies are seen as a key variable that could disrupt growth prospects, potentially increasing costs and compressing corporate profit margins while also limiting consumer spending [10] - Market participants are advised to closely monitor upcoming data releases to verify whether these economic forecasts align with actual economic performance [10]

在美联储即将于12月9日至10日召开政策会议之前，最新公布的经济数据似乎难以改变决策者内部的分 歧。尽管CME FedWatch显示市场押注明显偏向鸽派，12月会议降息25个基点的概率高达85%，多位官 员近期讲话显示，他们对于通胀与就业孰为当前最大风险仍存在激烈争论。 受政府停摆影响，美联储一向依赖的数据基础在过去数周变得支离破碎，只能依据有限的经济信息做判 断。周二公布的一批延迟发布的数据虽填补部分空白，却未能提供明确方向。 接下来最有可能影响美联储判断的将是周三公布的褐皮书以及持续更新的初次申请失业救济人数。 LPL Financial首席经济学家Jeff Roach特别关注企业是否继续选择自行吸收关税成本，而非将其转嫁给 消费者。此举曾帮助抑制通胀，若仍持续，可能意味着当前更大的经济风险来自"疲弱的劳动力市场"。 Clark也指出，褐皮书中若出现更多裁员提及，将对部分官员产生影响。由于联邦数据缺失，一些决策 者会比以往更加依赖来自各联储地区的实时企业反馈。 每周失业金申领数据亦至关重要，因为这项高频数据在新冠疫情期间也能保持更新。Clark称："如果劳 动力市场出现真正显著恶化，我们会在这里看到。但目 ...

以下文章来源于金十财经 ，作者金十小金 金十财经 . 每日8点，为您呈上金融投资行业的国际动态、财经数据和市场观察。 来源 | 金十财经 在之前连续两次会议上降息，将利率降至3.75%至4%的区间，以防范就业市场疲软的风险之后，鲍威尔和他的同事们必须判断，通胀（其水 平一直接近3%，而非美联储2%的目标）是否已成为更大的担忧。 根据芝加哥商品交易所集团的数据，利率期货市场周一认为下月降息的可能性很大，但这是近期才出现的变化。 本月，12月降息的概率曾稳步下降至不足50%，直到同样作为鲍威尔盟友的纽约联储主席威廉姆斯上周五表示，"在短期内"有降息的空间。 他表示，避免劳动力市场承受"不当风险"与将通胀率恢复到美联储目标同样重要。 越来越多的官员阵营对进一步降息表示反对或担忧。他们看到，受关税影响的商品价格居高不下（他们担心这种情况可能加剧），同时国内 服务价格也在上涨，这表明价格压力可能正在扩大。他们担心过快地降息，如果明年经济加速增长，会使美联储陷入困境。 戴利表示，美联储不应因为担心未来可能需要逆转政策方向，而现在就推迟降息。 "我不愿意假设我们明年会束手无策，"以至于要么在经济 急剧恶化时无法进一步降息， ...

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: November 25, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core View - The SCFIS index increased by 20.7% week-on-week to 1639.37 this week, better than expected, but the shipping companies' price increase in December was less than expected. Maersk's quotes were the most aggressive, suppressing the price increase space of other airlines. There is a possibility that other airlines will follow Maersk to cut prices to attract cargo. Considering that February is a traditional peak season, the market may carry out incentive games for the pre-Spring Festival shipping rush. The cost - performance ratio of short - selling is not high. Pay attention to the possibility that the April contract in the off - season may be overvalued and the positive spread opportunity between the 02 and 04 contracts [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot market: The SCFIS index increased by 20.7% week - on - week to 1639.37 this week, better than expected. But shipping companies' price increase in December was less than expected. Maersk's quotes were aggressive, suppressing other airlines' price increase space, and other airlines may follow to cut prices. Consider the 02 - 04 positive spread opportunity [8] 2. Industry News - From November 17th to 21st, the China export container shipping market was basically stable, and the freight rates of ocean routes were adjusted with the composite index falling. The euro - zone's November consumer confidence index was lower than expected, and the European shipping demand lacked growth momentum with falling spot market booking prices. The Mediterranean route's supply - demand fundamentals were better with slightly rising freight rates. In the North American route, due to the US government shutdown, the employment market was weak and the freight rates continued to fall. There were also military conflicts in the Middle East that may affect the shipping market [9][10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - The SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) on November 24, 2025, was 1639.37, up 281.7 (20.7% week - on - week) from November 17th. The SCFIS for the US West route (basic ports) was 1107.85, down 130.57 (- 10.5% week - on - week) from November 17th [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Market - The trading data of container shipping European line futures on November 24th showed different price changes, trading volumes, and open interests for different contracts such as EC2512, EC2602, etc. [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - There were various shipping - related data charts including container ship capacity in Europe, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, etc [17][21]

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is facing challenges due to the uncertainty brought by the Trump administration's tariff policies and the recent government shutdown, which lasted for 43 days [1] - The GDP data for the third quarter remains unclear due to the government shutdown, and the labor market is cooling while inflation pressures persist [1] Employment Data - The unemployment rate in September rose to 4.4%, the highest level since November 2021, despite the addition of 119,000 non-farm jobs, which exceeded market expectations [1] - A total of 470,000 individuals entered the labor market, contributing to the rise in the unemployment rate, indicating that high inflation is forcing people to seek employment [1] - The non-farm employment data for July and August was revised downwards, with July's figures adjusted from 79,000 to 72,000 and August's from 22,000 to a negative 4,000 [1] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer sentiment showed a slight improvement after the government shutdown, but individuals remain frustrated by high prices and declining incomes [2] - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index fell to 51.0 in November, down from 53.6 in October, indicating a decline in consumer confidence [3] Economic Growth Predictions - The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's survey of 33 professional researchers predicts a median GDP growth rate of 1.1% for the fourth quarter, down from a previous estimate of 1.3% [3] - The forecast for the first quarter of the following year was also revised down from 1.9% to 1.6% [3] Consumer Behavior - The CEO of Kraft Heinz stated that consumer sentiment entering the holiday season is among the worst in decades, reflecting the economic challenges faced by consumers [3]

戴利强调，仍坚信美联储能在不推升失业率的前提下将通胀率降回2%目标区间，若未能达成此目标将 构成政策失败。 美联储越来越多官员近期对进一步降息表达反对或担忧，认为通胀高企的原因包括受关税影响的商品， 以及国内服务业，担心若太快降息，而明年经济增长加快，将使美联储陷入两难。戴利则认为，美联储 不应因担忧日后可能需要逆转政策而延迟降息，而美联储官员间罕见的分歧，反映真实不确定性而非决 策失灵，若"此刻众人意见一致"，央行反而会陷入群体思维的错误，"我们的职责并非达成共识"。 智通财经APP获悉，美国旧金山联储主席戴利(Mary Daly)表示，她支持在美联储12月会议上降息，因为 就业市场突然恶化的可能性比通胀骤升更高，且更难应对。她周一接受媒体采访时指出，劳动力市场现 已非常脆弱，"存在发生非线性变化的风险"，不确定当局能否提前应对，相较之下，通胀爆发的风险较 低，因为关税驱动的成本上涨幅度低于今年较早时所预期。 有分析认为戴利言论意义重大，因其在公开场合鲜少偏离美联储主席鲍威尔的立场。戴利在2027年才在 联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)有投票权。 ...