Group 1 - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.6% in November, marking the highest level in over four years, up from 4.4% in September [2][3] - The job market is showing signs of "high-frequency volatility and low-speed growth," with three months of net job losses in the past six months [3] - November saw an addition of 64,000 non-farm jobs, which was above the expected 45,000, but insufficient to offset previous job losses [4][3] Group 2 - Job growth is primarily occurring in low productivity or government-dependent sectors, while sectors representing economic vitality, such as manufacturing and professional services, are contracting [6] - Federal government jobs decreased by 6,000 in November and saw a significant drop of 162,000 in October, with a total reduction of approximately 270,000 since January [8][9] - The wage growth in the private sector fell to 3.5% year-over-year in November, the lowest in years, indicating that wage increases are not keeping pace with living costs [11][12] Group 3 - The current employment situation is characterized as "low-fire, low-hire," where companies are hesitant to make large layoffs or expand hiring, reflecting a cautious approach to seasonal employment and the testing of AI replacements [15] - The report suggests that the true state of the U.S. job market may be weaker than indicated, as the Federal Reserve has warned that current statistical models may overestimate job additions by about 60,000 each month [13][14] - The employment market is entering a dangerous phase, showing signs of cooling without a clear collapse, which could lead to a prolonged period of economic uncertainty [17]

Welcome back. We are awaiting the delayed November jobs report. Economists are expecting 50,000 jobs created for the month with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.4%.This will be a market mover because it will educate or inform uh market participants on what the Federal Reserve's next move is. Joining me now is American Staffing Association board member Joanie Bileley, Job Creators Network CEO Alfredo Ortiz. Also with us this morning is Charles Payne, Mitch Rochelle, Lee Carter, and Cheryl Cassoon.Gr ...

| | | 贵金属期货日报 | | | 2025/12/16 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 数据指标 | 环比 | 最新 | 环比 | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 971.420 | -11.7↓ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | | 14666 | -127.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) 196,206.00 | -6832.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | | 17,354.00 | +10148.00↑ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 293,904.00 | -145858.00↓ 主力合约成交量:沪银 | | 1,571,376.00 | -785850.00↓ | | | 仓单数量:沪金(日,千克) 91302 | 0↑ 仓单数量:沪银(日,千克) | | 890,715 | 32901↑ | | 现货市场 | 上金所黄金现货价 964.89 | -11.93↓ 华通一号白银现货价 | | 14,872.00 | 234.00↑ | | | 沪金主 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Core Viewpoints - The precious metal market is generally strong, with the London gold price rising continuously and the decline of the London silver price significantly narrowing. After the Fed's interest rate cut was fulfilled as expected, silver reached multiple historical highs and then had a short - term correction due to the squeeze caused by the continuous shortage of global physical silver inventory and the boost of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. The Fed has internal differences on whether to worry more about inflation or the employment market, and FOMC officials currently do not show a high willingness to continue cutting interest rates. In the short term, considering that the market has fully priced in the Fed's interest rate cut, the recent pulsed upward movement of silver may increase the short - term correction risk, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term. The London gold is expected to have an upper resistance level of $4350 per ounce and a lower support level of $4250 per ounce; the London silver is expected to have an upper resistance level of $64.5 per ounce and a lower support level of $59 per ounce [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 970.66 yuan/gram, up 12.5 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 14793 yuan/kilogram, down 99 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold are 203,038 hands, down 836 hands; the main contract positions of Shanghai silver are 7,206 hands, down 196 hands. The main contract trading volume of Shanghai gold is 439,719 hands, up 147,983 hands; the main contract trading volume of Shanghai silver is 2,357,087 hands, up 630,503 hands. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai gold is 91,302 kilograms, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai silver is 820,921 kilograms, up 36,893 kilograms [2] Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 0 yuan, unchanged; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver is 14,638 yuan, down 83 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 970.66 yuan/gram, down 964.25 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 155 yuan/gram, up 16 yuan [2] Supply and Demand Situation - The SPDR gold ETF holdings are 1053.12 tons, up 2.29 tons; the SLV silver ETF holdings are 16,102.90 tons, up 19.74 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 210,339 contracts, up 3,270 contracts; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CFTC are 34,016 contracts, up 1,030 contracts. The total quarterly supply of gold is 1313.07 tons, up 86.24 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 32,056 tons, up 482 tons. The total quarterly demand for gold is 1257.90 tons, up 174.15 tons; the total annual demand for silver is 35,716 tons, down 491 tons [2] Macro Data - The US dollar index is 98.40, up 0.04; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.93, up 0.04. The VIX volatility index is 15.74, up 0.89; the CBOE gold volatility index is 21.46, up 0.49. The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price is 1.57, down 0.06; the gold - silver ratio is 67.38, down 0.72 [2] Industry News - Multiple Fed officials spoke. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said inflation is no longer the biggest enemy, and the downside risk of employment is more worthy of concern. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said he voted against the interest rate cut on Wednesday to wait for more data and expects more interest rate cuts next year than the median forecast. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester both said they hope the policy remains moderately restrictive. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 24.4%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 75.6%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is 41.9%, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 49.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate cut is 8.3%. The Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda and other senior officials have repeatedly signaled support for an interest rate hike. Although there is no clear opposition within the policy committee, the central bank said it will comprehensively evaluate potential market risks such as sharp stock market fluctuations and a sharp appreciation of the yen before making a final decision. If this interest rate hike is implemented, it will be the Bank of Japan's second increase in the policy rate since January 2025, after an 11 - month interval [2] Key Points to Watch - December 15, 21:30, US December New York Fed Manufacturing Index; December 15, 23:00, US December NAHB Housing Market Index; December 16, 21:30, US November Non - farm Payrolls Report [2]

今日周一(12月15日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于62.53一线上方，今日开盘于61.79美元/盎司，截至 发稿，国际白银暂报62.59美元/盎司，上涨0.94%，最高触及62.75美元/盎司，最低下探61.72美元/盎 司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 英国金融时报分析指出，周二公布的美国非农就业报告将包含10月和11月的数据，最终为政策制定者和 投资者提供更完整的美国劳动力市场图景，结束数月来的部分盲飞状态。 美联储在本周分歧严重的会议后将利率降至三年低点，数位官员持异议，争论焦点在于应优先应对高通 胀还是疲软的就业市场。 【最新国际白银行情解析】 国际白银一直强调，在多头趋势中看涨不猜顶，上周实际最高在64.6附近，完成了上涨大部分空间，目 前收盘在62之上，注意周四，周五后行情变化，交易尽量以做多为主。周内强势支持点在60附近。今日 白银下方关注61.40美元或60.40美元支撑，上方关注63.00美元或63.80美元阻力。 花旗集团经济学家指出，即将公布的最新就业报告可能释放更多矛盾信号。该行预计10月就业岗位减少 约4.5万个，但11月将增加8万个。 花旗经济学家表示， ...

行情回顾： 们还预测失业率将从4.4%升至4.52%，而路透社对经济学家的调查显示失业率为4.4%。美联储自身的季度预测 显示，今年年底失业率中值约为4.5%。 美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示，如果他被选中领导美联储，他会考虑特朗普的政策意见，但美联储 的利率决定仍将保持独立。哈塞特周日表示："总统对于我们应该做什么，持有非常强烈且有充分根据的看 法。但最终，美联储的职责是保持独立，并与理事会和FOMC的成员们合作，就利率应处于的水平达成集体共 识。"哈塞特表示："就算当了美联储主席，每天也会很乐意与总统交谈，直到我们俩都去世，因为和他交 谈'太有趣了'。"然而，他驳斥了总统的意见将与FOMC有投票权的成员具有同等分量的说法，称政策制定者可 以自由地拒绝他的意见并"以不同的方式投票"。哈塞特说："不，不，他不会有任何分量。只是，如果他的意 见是好的、基于数据的，那它才重要。" 国际黄金周五（12月12日）冲高回落震荡收涨，开盘价4256.13美元/盎司，最高价4353.57美元/盎司，最低价 4250.06美元/盎司，收阿培南加4290.37美元/盎司。 消息面： 克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克表示，她更希望利 ...

Market Overview - The Federal Reserve announced its third interest rate cut of the year, leading to mixed performance in global markets. The Dow Jones increased by 1.05% for the week, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell by 1.62% and 0.63% respectively [1] - European indices showed divergence, with the UK FTSE 100 down by 0.19%, the German DAX 30 up by 0.66%, and the French CAC 40 down by 0.57% [1] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting revealed significant internal disagreements, with the updated dot plot indicating only one expected rate cut in 2026. Market expectations, however, suggest more frequent cuts [2] - Concerns about inflation persist, but signs of a weakening job market may strengthen the case for further rate cuts. Recent ADP data showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs, indicating potential downside risks for the upcoming non-farm payroll report [2] Treasury Auctions - The U.S. Treasury plans to auction $13 billion in 20-year bonds and $24 billion in 5-year TIPS, testing investor demand for long-term government debt amid improved liquidity concerns [3] Oil and Gold Market Trends - International oil prices fell due to geopolitical factors and an oversupply in the global market. WTI crude dropped by 4.39% to $57.44 per barrel, while Brent crude fell by 4.13% to $61.12 per barrel [4] - Gold prices rose by 2.07% to $4,300.10 per ounce, driven by the Fed's rate cut and a weaker dollar, making gold more attractive to foreign buyers [5] Precious Metals Market - Analysts noted that the rise in silver prices is positively impacting gold, with platinum and palladium also seeing price increases. The current inflation environment, which remains above the Fed's target, is favorable for gold [6] European Central Bank Expectations - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain interest rates at their current levels during its upcoming meeting, with market speculation about potential rate hikes not anticipated until 2027 [7] - Key economic indicators, including GDP growth and inflation expectations, will be closely monitored as they may influence future ECB policy decisions [8] Upcoming Economic Data - Significant economic data releases are scheduled, including the December PMI for France, Germany, and the Eurozone, which will be crucial for ECB decision-making [8]

注意价格剧烈波动风险 贵金属周报 2025/12/13 0755-23375141 zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 钟俊轩（宏观金融组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及行情展望 04 宏观经济数据 02 市场回顾 05 贵金属价差 03 利率与流动性 06 贵金属库存 01 周度评估及行情展望 周度总结 ◆ 本周行情回顾：美联储鸽派降息后贵金属价格本周表现十分强势，截至周五日盘收盘，沪金涨1.00%，报970.66 元/克，沪银涨8.80%，报 14892.00 元/千克；COMEX金涨1.68%，报4309.30 美元/盎司，COMEX银涨11.20%，报63.98 美元/盎司； 10年期美债收益率报4.14 %；美元 指数跌0.72%，报98.34 ； ◆ 本周四凌晨美联储议息会议进行鸽派降息操作，降息25个基点令联邦基金目标利率区间降至3.50%-3.75%的同时重启扩表，令金银价格得到 支撑： 1.内部分歧方面: 联储官员投票结果鹰派程度低于市场预期，仅古尔斯比和施密特投出反对票，并非是高达4-5个票委的反对降息。 特朗 ...

美联储官员周五再次阐明了本周降息为何如此充满争议，在公开评论中，一位官员认为，如果劳动力市 场走软，央行还有继续降息的空间，而其他官员则警告称，降息可能会威胁到美联储在通胀问题上得来 不易的成果。 来源：环球市场播报 哈马克周五表示，她认为利率已接近既不刺激也不减缓增长的中性水平，并认为有必要采取更具限制性 的立场。 费城联储行长保尔森明年将成为美联储利率制定委员会的有投票权的成员，她基本认同美联储主席鲍威 尔周三支持降息的论点，并建议该央行在未来的会议上保留所有政策选项。 她在周五上午的一次演讲中说："总的来看，我仍然更担心劳动力市场的疲软，而不是通胀的上行风 险。" 最近的分歧反映出美联储逾15年来首次面临的两难困境：顽固的通胀要求加息，而疲软的就业市场则表 明需要降息。鲍威尔周三说："那你会何去何从？你只有一个工具。无法同时完成两个目标。" 保尔森说，她更关注就业市场，因为她认为明年通胀"很有可能"会下降，因为关税上调的影响会消退， 住房成本也会促使价格增长放缓。与此同时，对工人的需求下降速度快于可用工人的供应，从而推高了 失业率。她说，虽然就业市场表现"尚可"，但出现更急剧放缓的风险有所增加。 该央行 ...

据报道，芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比周五表示，他反对美联储最近一次25个基点的降息决定，认为在进一 步降息之前，应等待更多关于通胀和就业市场的数据，尤其是在企业和消费者仍高度担忧物价上涨的背 景下。他还表示，若未来数据显示通胀正回归美联储2%的目标，他仍"乐观认为"明年利率"可显著下 调"。费城联储主席保尔森则表示，她当前最关注的是劳动力市场的状况，当前的货币政策立场应有助 于将通胀拉回2%的目标。 ...