Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that recent economic indicators for April demonstrate the resilience of China's economy, with some data exceeding market expectations, particularly an 8.1% year-on-year increase in goods exports in USD terms [1] - Despite a decline in exports and imports with the US by 21% and 13% respectively, exports to non-US regions have significantly increased, indicating a need to reassess the impact of tariffs on the economy in May and June [1] - The expectation for further policy easing may need to be re-evaluated based on the stable growth in production and demand, contrary to previous market expectations of economic pressure [1] Group 2 - The next phase will see more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, with a focus on stabilizing the domestic economic cycle, particularly through the real estate market [2] - From January to April, general public budget expenditure increased by 4.6%, while government fund budget expenditure rose by 17.7%, indicating a broad fiscal expenditure growth of over 7% [2] - The adjustment of micro-policies is crucial, as current low price phenomena are influenced not only by supply relations but also by the micro-market environment and pricing systems [2] Group 3 - The expansion of domestic demand strategy should focus on structural adjustments rather than just short-term stimulus, requiring a shift in understanding macro policies from crisis management to mid-term structural adjustments [3] - A better understanding of the relationship between policy choices, coordination of macro and micro policies, and the balance between short-term policies and mid-term reforms is essential for enhancing economic resilience [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][4][69] Core Views - The real estate market showed signs of marginal weakening in April, with various indicators experiencing expanded declines. The expectation is for subsequent policy measures to stabilize the market [4][69] - In the first four months of 2025, national real estate development investment was 27,730 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%. New housing starts and completions also saw significant declines [3][59] - The sales performance in April was weak, with a notable increase in the scale of decline. The sales area and sales amount of new commercial housing both decreased compared to the previous year [5][19] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first four months of 2025, the total sales amount of commercial housing was 27,035 billion yuan, down 3.2% year-on-year. In April alone, the sales amount was 6,237 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.7% [5][19] - The sales area for new commercial housing in the first four months was 28,262 million square meters, down 2.8% year-on-year, with April's sales area at 6,393 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1% [5][19] Price Trends - The average selling price of new commercial housing in the first four months was 9,566 yuan per square meter, down 0.4% year-on-year. In April, the average price was 9,756 yuan per square meter, down 4.7% year-on-year [19] - The price decline for new homes in 70 cities continued to narrow year-on-year, while the second-hand housing prices saw an increase in the month-on-month decline [19][29] Investment and Financing - Real estate development investment in the first four months was 27,730 billion yuan, down 10.3% year-on-year, with April's investment at 7,826 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.3% [38] - Funds available to real estate companies were 32,596 billion yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year, with April's funds at 7,867 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3% [38] Construction Activity - New housing starts in the first four months totaled 17,836 million square meters, down 23.8% year-on-year, with April's new starts at 4,840 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 22.1% [59] - The completion area for housing in the first four months was 15,648 million square meters, down 16.9% year-on-year, with April's completions at 2,588 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 27.9% [59] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that despite the marginal weakening of the real estate fundamentals, there are still opportunities for speculation in real estate stocks. Specific recommendations include Beike-W, Wo Ai Wo Jia, Greentown China, and China Overseas Hong Kong Group [4][69]

国家统计局发布 2025 年 4 月份全国房地产开发投资和销售情况。4 月销售面积 6393 万平，同比增速-2.1%（前值：-0.9%）；开发投资金额 7826 亿元，同比增速-11.3% （前值：-10.0%）；新开工面积 4840 万平，同比增速-22.1%（前值：-18.1%）。 统计局披露同比增速说明：根据房地产开发统计制度、统计执法检查等规定，对上年 同期房地产开发投资、新建商品房销售面积等数据进行修订，增速按可比口径计算。 核心观点 1. 商品房销售： 房地产 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 5 月 19 日 强于大市 房地产行业2025 年4 月统计局数据点评 单月销售降幅扩大；开竣工与投资均走弱 《房地产"止跌回稳"主基调不变，释放需求和化 解风险并行，传递积极信号——2025 年政府工作报 告解读》（2025/03/06） 投资建议 风险提示： 房地产调控升级；销售超预期下行；融资收紧。 《70 城新房、二手房房价环比跌幅均持平；二线城 市新房房价环比增速回正——房地产行业 2025 年 1 月 70 个大中城市房价数据点评》（2025/02/20） 《"旧改为主、收储为辅" ...

房地产库存和新开工有所改善。随着房地产销售回暖，房地产企业商品房库存减少，开工建设出现改 善。数据显示，4月末，商品房待售面积比3月末继续减少，连续两个月减少。1至4月，全国房屋新开工 面积同比降幅比1至3月收窄0.6个百分点。 付凌晖指出，总的来看，在各项促进房地产市场止跌回稳政策作用下，4月份房地产市场基本稳定。从 未来看，居民对绿色、智能、安全的"好房子"需求不断扩大，老旧小区改造升级、房地产建设提质增效 前景广阔。但也要看到，当前房地产市场总体仍在调整转型过程中，刚性和改善性需求仍待进一步释 放，部分地区房地产去化压力较大，促进房地产回稳仍需要继续努力。 资讯编辑：周小燕 021-26096760 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 中国国家统计局新闻发言人、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖19日在北京表示，4月份，中国房地产市 场基本稳定。 4月中国房地产市场交易基本稳定。付凌晖在当日国务院新闻办公室举行的发布会上说，随着各项稳楼 市政策陆续落地生效，今年前4个月，房地产销售有所回稳，部分城市市场交易呈现积极变化。1至4 月，新建商品房销售面积下降2. ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is showing signs of stabilization, with a continuous narrowing of price declines in first, second, and third-tier cities, and a reduction in housing inventory for two consecutive months [2][3][4]. Group 1: Housing Prices - In April, the new home prices in first and second-tier cities remained stable month-on-month, while third-tier cities experienced a slight decline [2]. - Year-on-year, the price decline in first-tier cities narrowed by 0.7 percentage points, while second and third-tier cities saw reductions of 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively [2]. - Specific cities like Beijing and Shanghai saw month-on-month price increases of 0.1% and 0.5%, while Guangzhou and Shenzhen experienced slight declines [2]. Group 2: Sales and Inventory - From January to April, new home sales area decreased by 2.8%, but the decline was 0.2 percentage points less than in the first quarter [3]. - In 40 key cities, new home sales area and sales revenue increased by 0.1% and 2% year-on-year, respectively [3]. - By the end of April, the inventory of unsold homes continued to decrease, marking two consecutive months of reduction [3]. Group 3: Construction and Funding - The new construction area from January to April saw a year-on-year decline that was 0.6 percentage points less than in the first quarter [3]. - However, the funding for real estate development decreased by 4.1% year-on-year, indicating a slight worsening compared to the first quarter [3]. - The overall real estate market is still in a transitional phase, with ongoing efforts needed to stabilize the market [3][4].

另外，记者梳理发现，房价环比上涨的城市数量较3月减少。4月份，70城中，新房价格环比上涨的城市 数量由24个减少至22个，下降城市为45个；二手房价格环比上涨的城市数量由3月份的10个减少至5个， 下降城市为64个。 "房价涨跌和波动是市场常态。"上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进表示，鉴于房地产市场的交易指标 已连续回升回稳超过6个月，所以下一步在挖掘潜在市场需求、持续巩固既有向好态势方面还需要持续 发力，既要发挥好既有的政策效应，同时也要在增量政策储备方面持续发力。 房地产库存和新开工有所改善 数据显示，1至4月份，全国房地产开发投资同比下降10.3%，降幅较一季度末扩大0.4个百分点。对此， 广开首席产业研究院资深研究员马泓表示，长期工程建设放缓系拖累投资下跌的主要因素。季节性因素 可能是影响4月房价回落的主要因素，但以上海为主要城市的房产交易依旧延续了去年四季度以来的恢 复态势。中信证券首席经济学家明明表示，4月商品房销售面积和销售额同比下降且降幅均有所扩大， 房地产开发投资降幅也进一步扩大。市场需求偏弱、项目开工放缓对房地产开发投资的拖累依然明显。 去年四季度以来，有关部门和各地出台了多项稳楼市政策， ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a rebound after a dip, with mixed performance across the three major indices. The micro-cap stock index rose over 2% to reach a new high. M&A concept stocks surged, with companies like Guangzhi Technology, An彩高科, and Binhai Energy hitting the daily limit. The real estate sector also showed strength, with stocks like Huaxia Happiness and Huayuan Real Estate reaching their limits. The shipping sector continued its strong performance, with stocks such as Ningbo Shipping and Lianyungang also hitting their limits. Overall, more than 3,500 stocks in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing saw gains, with a total trading volume of 1.12 trillion [1]. M&A Activity - The asset restructuring sector saw a significant rise, with multiple stocks like Zongyi Co. and An彩高科 hitting their daily limits. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced revised regulations for major asset restructuring, simplifying the review process and enhancing regulatory inclusiveness. Since the introduction of the "M&A Six Guidelines," the scale and activity of the M&A market have significantly increased, with over 1,400 disclosed asset restructurings, including more than 160 major ones. This year, over 600 asset restructurings have been disclosed, 1.4 times that of the same period last year, with completed major transactions exceeding 200 billion, 11.6 times that of last year [3][4][5]. Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector experienced a notable increase, with stocks like Zhengzhong Design and Huaxia Happiness reaching their limits. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the real estate market's transactions and prices have stabilized, with increased activity in some first- and second-tier cities. Analysts expect continued positive and moderate policies to support the real estate sector, with more fiscal and monetary measures anticipated to aid in stabilizing the market [6][7]. Shipping Sector - The shipping sector remained active, with stocks such as Nanjing Port and Ningbo Shipping achieving consecutive gains. Reports indicated a 600% increase in export customs declarations to the U.S. over two days, with significant increases in inquiries and bookings for shipping to the U.S., indicating an upcoming peak shipping period. Analysts believe that the 90-day tariff window between China and the U.S. may lead to a surge in shipping volumes and prices, benefiting related companies [8][9][10].

Economic Overview - In April 2025, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.1% year-on-year and 0.22% month-on-month, while the service production index rose by 6.0% year-on-year [1][3] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 37,174 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.1% and a month-on-month increase of 0.24% [1][3] Consumption Insights - The sales of products related to the "old-for-new" policy saw significant growth, with retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment, cultural and office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment increasing by 38.8%, 33.5%, 26.9%, and 19.9% year-on-year, respectively [7] - Basic living and upgraded goods also experienced rapid growth, with retail sales of grain and oil, sports and entertainment products, and gold and silver jewelry increasing by 14%, 23.3%, and 25.3% year-on-year [7] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment grew by 4% from January to April 2025, with equipment investment rising by 18.2%, contributing 64.5% to total investment growth [9] - Manufacturing investment increased by 8.8% year-on-year, driven by the upgrade of traditional industries and the development of emerging industries [9] - High-tech service industry investment rose by 11.3%, with professional technical services and information services growing by 17.6% and 40.6%, respectively [9] Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate in April was 5.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, with notable declines in unemployment rates among migrant workers and youth [14] - Despite overall employment stability, structural issues remain, particularly for the youth demographic and a mismatch in labor supply and demand [14] Real Estate Market - The real estate market showed basic stability in April, with some first- and second-tier cities experiencing increased transaction activity [15][17] - New residential sales prices in first- and second-tier cities remained stable month-on-month, while year-on-year declines in prices continued to narrow [17] - The demand for green, smart, and safe housing is expanding, indicating a positive outlook for the renovation of old communities and improvements in real estate construction quality [17]

Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - In April 2025, the residential market did not maintain the momentum from March, with a total sales area of 996.3 million square meters, representing a month-on-month decrease of 28.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% [3] - Despite the overall market cooling, cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou still experienced "daylight sales," indicating structural heat in the market, particularly in high-demand areas [5] - The average land transaction price in key cities remains high, with significant premium rates observed, particularly in first-tier and core second-tier cities [7] Group 2: Policy and Government Actions - The Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on urban renewal actions and increasing the supply of high-quality housing [1] - Future policies may include expanding demand by lifting purchase restrictions, promoting housing delivery, and accelerating the acquisition of existing properties and land [2] Group 3: Company Developments - Poly Developments achieved significant success in April, securing two high-value land parcels in Hangzhou and Xiamen, with floor prices of 52,000 yuan and 51,000 yuan per square meter, respectively, marking the highest prices for the month [1][9] - Sunac China's overseas debt restructuring has made substantial progress, with a total of approximately 95.5 billion USD involved, potentially allowing the company to convert debt into equity [15] Group 4: Investment and Financing - In April 2025, the top 100 real estate companies acquired land worth 116.53 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 4.8% but a year-on-year increase of 87.4% [8] - The average financing cost for domestic bonds issued by real estate companies in April was 2.7%, a slight decrease from March [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry in China [4] Core Viewpoints - The recent interest rate cut by the central bank is slightly earlier than expected, which helps stabilize market expectations [2] - The real estate market is experiencing a decline in Q2, with a focus on whether there will be any unexpected policy announcements [6] - The first quarter saw a significant drop in sales for the top 100 real estate companies, with a month-on-month decrease of 41% and a year-on-year decrease of 7% [6] Market Performance - In the 19th week, the real estate sector index underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a relative return of -1.5% [7][10] - The CSI 300 index closed at 3846.2 with a weekly increase of 1.0%, while the real estate index (Shenwan) closed at 2177.9 with a weekly decrease of 0.5% [10][11] Policy Developments - The central bank announced a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate reduction, releasing 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [7][13] - Local policies include adjustments to housing loan rates in several cities, with a 0.25 percentage point reduction in personal housing provident fund loan rates effective from May 8, 2025 [7][14] Sales and Inventory Data - New home sales in 44 major cities decreased to 14,000 units, down 28.4% from the previous week, while second-hand home sales also fell by 9.2% [15] - The inventory in 18 major cities decreased to 846,000 units, down 16,000 units from the previous week, with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 21.7 months [18] Land Market Activity - The land market activity decreased, with a total of 161.4 billion yuan in land transfer fees, down 248.3 billion yuan from the previous week [7][26] - The average premium rate for land transactions in 36 major cities was 6.9%, a decrease of 5.1% from the previous week [34] Company Announcements - Key companies such as Poly Developments and China Merchants Shekou have released their sales figures for April 2025, showing significant declines in both sales area and amount [39][40]