Group 1: Climate and Energy Policy - President Xi Jinping announced that by 2035, China's greenhouse gas emissions will decrease by 7%-10% from peak levels, with non-fossil energy consumption exceeding 30% of total energy consumption[2] - The total installed capacity of wind and solar power is targeted to exceed six times that of 2020, aiming for 360 million kilowatts[2] - The national carbon trading market will cover major high-emission industries, enhancing China's contribution to global climate governance[2] Group 2: Economic Measures and Financial Tools - A new policy financial tool with an initial scale of 500 billion yuan is set to support projects across eight key sectors, aimed at stabilizing growth amid economic pressures[3] - The State Council emphasizes China's commitment to multilateral trade systems, countering rising unilateralism and protectionism in global economic cooperation[2] Group 3: Energy Market Performance - In August 2025, the national electricity market transaction volume reached 655 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%[4] - From January to August 2025, cumulative electricity market transactions totaled 4,344.2 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 63.2% of total electricity consumption, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year[4] Group 4: Corporate Developments - Alibaba's CEO announced a significant investment of 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure, positioning the company as a leader in AI technology development[4] - The National Energy Administration is promoting the upgrade of the photovoltaic industry to address "involution" competition, indicating a potential improvement in supply-demand dynamics[4] Group 5: Market Trends - The latest 10-year government bond yield is 1.897%, with a change of 1.98 basis points, while the DR007 rate is at 1.586%, changing by 11.10 basis points[5] - The USDCNH exchange rate is currently at 7.1379, reflecting a 0.34% increase, and the US dollar index stands at 97.87, up by 0.65%[7]

2025 年 9 月 25 日 股指期货将震荡整理 铜期货将震荡偏强 玻璃、原油、燃料 油、PTA、豆粕期货将偏强震荡 黄金期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将震荡整理：IF2512 阻力位 4545 和 4580 点，支撑位 4495 和 4455 点；IH2512 阻力位 2946 和 2955 点，支撑位 2923 和 2912 点；IC2512 阻力位 7200 和 7300 点，支撑位 7100 和 7035 点；IM2512 阻力位 7 ...

一、 宏观数据速览 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-09-25 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250715 | 2025/06 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.20 | 5.40 | 4.70 | | 20250831 | 2025/08 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.40 | 49.30 | 49.10 | | 20250831 | 2025/08 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.30 | 50.10 | 50.30 | | 20250915 | 2025/08 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 25668.00 11307.00 | 30323.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20250912 | 2025/08 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 11.70 | 11.80 | 12.20 | | 202509 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new policy financial tool, with an initial scale of 500 billion yuan, aims to support projects across eight key sectors, with a portion of the funds allocated specifically for private enterprises, indicating a strong governmental commitment to bolster the private economy [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Tool Characteristics - The new policy financial tool is characterized by its fiscal support nature, with funding potentially sourced from the central bank's pledged supplementary lending (PSL) at a low interest rate of 2%, and possibly even lower than 1% due to central government subsidies [2][3]. - This tool is designed to address the capital shortage in local projects, which has been a bottleneck for the effective use of special bonds [1][2]. Group 2: Investment Potential - The 500 billion yuan financial tool is expected to leverage investments up to 5 trillion yuan, significantly enhancing the funding available for various projects [2][3]. - The tool's implementation could lead to a broad expansion of credit, potentially increasing infrastructure investment growth by approximately 2 percentage points within the year [7]. Group 3: Focus Areas - The financial tool will prioritize eight sectors, including digital economy, artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy, consumer infrastructure, green and low-carbon transition, agriculture, transportation and logistics, and municipal and industrial parks [3][5]. - A specific allocation of 100 billion yuan is designated to support private enterprises, reflecting the government's commitment to fostering private sector growth [3]. Group 4: Implementation Timeline - The preparation for the new financial tool has progressed significantly, with project applications and local government initiatives underway, indicating a potential rollout in the third quarter [6][8]. - If launched in the third quarter, the tool could play a crucial role in stimulating economic growth amid a challenging economic environment [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The decline in fixed asset investment growth is primarily attributed to a lack of quality projects, shifting from a previous focus on funding shortages [3][40]. Investment Growth Trends - Fixed asset investment growth for January to August 2025 is at 0.5%, down from a high of 4.2% in the first quarter, marking five consecutive months of decline [2][3]. - Investment growth has decreased across major sectors, including real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing, with respective growth rates falling from -9.9%, 11.5%, and 9.1% in Q1 to -12.9%, 5.4%, and 5.1% by August [3][10]. Sector Analysis - The construction and installation sector has significantly impacted the overall decline in fixed asset investment, contributing -0.6 percentage points to the overall investment growth [10][20]. - Excluding real estate, the cumulative year-on-year growth of fixed asset investment dropped from 8.3% in Q1 to 4.2% by August [3]. Company Type Investment Trends - Investment growth rates vary by company type, with foreign-invested enterprises experiencing the largest decline at -15.4%, while state-owned enterprises and Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan enterprises show modest growth at 2.3% [7][10]. Price Factors - Price factors are not the primary cause of the recent decline in nominal investment growth, as the fixed asset investment price index has shown only a slight decline [9][10]. Future Outlook - If new policy financial tools are implemented soon, fixed asset investment may receive some support in Q4, and the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" could alleviate project shortages [3][40].

Core Viewpoint - Sichuan Saidi Information Technology Co., Ltd. is experiencing significant progress in securing funding through new policy financial tools, aided by the Chengdu government's supportive mechanisms [1][12]. Group 1: Company Overview - Sichuan Saidi is a private high-tech enterprise rooted in Chengdu, recognized as a "little giant" and a national key innovation enterprise [3]. - The company focuses on military-civilian integration, electronic information equipment, and industrial software development, establishing a leading position in the industry [3]. Group 2: Policy Context - In April, the government introduced a new policy financial tool with a total of 500 billion yuan, mandating that at least 20% of the funds be allocated to private enterprises [5]. - The implementation of this policy presents both opportunities and challenges for local governments in terms of execution and service capabilities [5]. Group 3: Application Process - Initially, the company faced difficulties in understanding the policy details and aligning their application direction with government priorities [6]. - After engaging with government support teams, the company shifted its application focus from military-civilian integration to digital economy initiatives, specifically "smart factory" construction [8]. Group 4: Government Support Mechanism - The Chengdu government's "Jin Jie You Cu" mechanism provided timely assistance, facilitating direct communication and support for the company's application process [7][12]. - The collaborative efforts between the company and government teams included extensive guidance on documentation and policy alignment, ensuring the accuracy and persuasiveness of the application materials [8][9]. Group 5: Future Prospects - Successful application to the national major construction project database could lead to capital subsidies and low-interest loans, paving the way for future IPO opportunities [9][11]. - The company aims to expand production capacity and enhance market competitiveness within the next 1-2 years, potentially transitioning from a billion to a ten billion yuan scale [11].

Economic Situation - Current economic pressures on investment and consumption are increasing, indicating that a new round of growth stabilization policies is imminent[1] - Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth for the first eight months of this year is only 0.5%, necessitating coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate recovery[1] - Retail sales growth has declined to 3.4% year-on-year in August, suggesting potential consumption pressures in the fourth quarter due to high base effects from last year[1] Policy Timing and Direction - The key window for new policies is expected in mid to late October, with the fourth plenary session of the Central Committee being a significant event[1] - There are four areas where policy space remains: early use of debt quotas, introduction of new policy financial tools, increased likelihood of interest rate cuts, and potential adjustments to consumer subsidy policies[1][2] Financial Tools and Measures - The anticipated scale of new policy financial tools is around 500 billion RMB, aimed at stabilizing investment growth in Q4[1] - Early use of debt quotas could free up significant funds for economic construction, with a potential 2.8 trillion RMB available for 2026[1] - The probability of interest rate cuts has increased, which would lower costs for homebuyers and businesses[2] Consumption Policies - Adjustments to subsidy funds and expanding the scope of "trade-in" subsidies could stabilize consumption growth, which has been pressured by insufficient funding[1] - New policies to support service consumption are expected to be implemented in Q4, with a focus on innovative service consumption measures[1] Overall Policy Approach - The new round of growth stabilization policies is characterized as supportive rather than aggressive, aiming to stabilize growth without compromising quality[1] - The projected GDP growth for the first three quarters is around 5.1%, with a target of maintaining growth above 4.5% in Q4 to achieve an annual target of approximately 5%[1]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 09 月 19 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 09 月 19 日 ： 张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ： 021-80106048 ： zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 ❑ 资金：周四沪深两市总成交额为 31352 亿元，南下资金净流入 62.9 亿港元。 重要推荐 ❑ 【浙商机械 邱世梁/王一帆】开普云（688228）公司深度：拟收购金泰克存储业务，打造软硬一体 AI 综合服务 供应商——20250917 重要观点 重要点评 ❑ 【浙商大制造中观策略 邱世梁/王华君/陈红】先导智能（300450）公司点评：业绩拐点确立，固态电池业务打开 全新增长空间 ——20250917 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 市场总览 1、大势：周四上证指数下跌 1.2%，沪深 300 下跌 1.2%，科创 50 上涨 0.7%，中证 1000 下跌 1.0%，创 业板指下跌 1.6%，恒生指数下跌 1.4%。 2、行业：周四表现最好的行业分别是电子（+0.9%) ...

Fiscal Performance - In August 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 12,359 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%[3] - The national general public budget expenditure in August was 18,587 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.8%[8] - From January to August 2025, the completion rate of the general public budget revenue was 47.8%, consistent with the same period in 2024[1] - The completion rate of general public budget expenditure was 57.3%, which is higher than the same period in 2024[1] Tax Revenue Insights - Tax revenue in August 2025 was 10,152 billion CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4%[3] - Cumulative tax revenue from January to August 2025 achieved a positive growth of 0.02%, marking the first positive growth since December 2023[4] - Individual income tax grew by 8.9% from January to August 2025, reflecting improved tax collection efforts[4] Non-Tax Revenue Trends - Non-tax revenue in August 2025 was 2,207 billion CNY, declining by 3.8% year-on-year, continuing a negative growth trend since May 2025[3] - The decline in non-tax revenue is attributed to high base effects from 2024 and improved management of non-tax revenue[5] Government Fund Budget Analysis - The government fund budget revenue in August 2025 recorded a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%, primarily due to a drop in land transfer income[10] - Government fund budget expenditure in August 2025 increased by 19.8% year-on-year, indicating strong spending in infrastructure and public projects[10] Policy Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the implementation of new policy financial tools to support fiscal stability and economic recovery[1] - It highlights the importance of maintaining a balance between fiscal revenue and expenditure to ensure sustainable economic growth[1]

Economic Overview - In August, major economic indicators such as industrial added value, service production index, retail sales, and investment showed signs of marginal weakening, indicating downward pressure on economic performance [1][2] - Despite the challenges, exports maintained resilience, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8% in August, contributing to a cumulative export growth of 6.9% from January to August [4][5] Consumption and Retail - Retail sales of consumer goods in August grew by 3.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a slowdown in consumer demand [2][3] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy positively impacted certain durable goods, but its effect showed signs of diminishing in August [3][8] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 0.5% year-on-year from January to August, with manufacturing investment increasing by 5.1%, infrastructure investment by 2.0%, and real estate investment declining by 12.9% [3][4] - The central government is expected to accelerate the introduction of policies to stabilize growth, focusing on promoting private investment and addressing barriers to market entry [5][6] Policy Measures - The government plans to implement measures to stimulate consumption and investment, including the establishment of new policy financial tools and the expansion of service consumption [6][7] - Recent signals from central authorities indicate a commitment to enhancing market conditions for private enterprises and addressing issues that hinder private investment [5][6] Price Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a narrowing year-on-year decline in August, attributed to improved market competition and demand in emerging industries [7][8] - Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed signs of recovery, reflecting an improvement in supply-demand dynamics [8]