Report Summary 1. Investment Rating of the Industry No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The progress of the new policy - based financial instruments' release may exceed 60%, and it is expected to be fully released by the end of October. The investment leverage ratio has increased, but the high - frequency data reaction is not obvious, and subsequent key data verification nodes should be focused on [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 New Policy - based Financial Instruments Release Progress - As of October 17, the two policy banks (CDB and ADBC) have released approximately 290 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments, with a release progress close to 70%. The CDB has released 189.35 billion yuan, with a progress of about 75.74%, and the ADBC has completed 100.111 billion yuan of fund release, with a progress close to 66.74%. By linear extrapolation, about 356.2 billion yuan of the 500 - billion - yuan new policy - based financial instruments established since the end of September may have been released. It is expected to be fully released by the end of October [1]. 3.2 Fund Allocation - More funds are allocated to major economic provinces. The CDB has released 146.58 billion yuan to 12 major economic provinces, accounting for 77.41%, and the ADBC has invested 67.136 billion yuan in 407 projects in these provinces, accounting for 67.06%. - The new policy - based financial instruments also support private investment and new infrastructure. Private investment has received 63.879 billion yuan of support from the two policy banks, and the new infrastructure field, mainly invested by the CDB, has received 71.05 billion yuan in projects related to digital economy, artificial intelligence, and consumption [2]. 3.3 Investment Leverage Ratio - The investment leverage ratio of the new policy - based financial instruments is between 12.59 - 14.79 times, slightly stronger than the previous round (10 - 13.2 times in 2022) [3]. 3.4 High - Frequency Data and Follow - up Monitoring - High - frequency data shows that the operating rates of petroleum asphalt plants and major steel mills' rebar production have signs of bottoming out and rebounding, while other indicators are still weak. It is recommended to continuously track high - frequency indicators to judge the implementation of physical work volume and its support for Q4 GDP. The next important data verification time points are the October credit data (sub - items such as medium - and long - term corporate loans/entrusted loans) and economic data (infrastructure investment, etc.) to be released in early November [4].

中信证券研报指出，9月经济数据在产需两端分化进一步加大，生产端保持韧性，但内需指标的下滑较 为明显。从需求侧来看，9月投资增速延续快速下行趋势，低于市场一致预期；由于前期补贴的透支效 应继续显现以及基数抬升，今年9月社零增速有所下滑，略低于市场预期。展望四季度，在新型政策性 金融工具等政策发力的带动下固投增速有望迎来温和改善。但我们提示关注四季度出口和社零增速可能 因较高的基数因素而环比三季度有所下滑。近期财政部宣布采取两项措施巩固拓展经济回升向好势头， 同时我们建议关注后续扩大服务消费的若干政策措施对居民消费的提振效果。 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both 1-year and 5-year terms at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively for the fifth consecutive month, indicating a stable monetary policy environment [1] - The LPR is influenced by the central bank's policy rates and the quotes from banks, with no recent adjustments in the policy rates leading to a stable LPR [1] - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in September was approximately 3.1%, down about 40 basis points year-on-year, while the average interest rate for personal housing loans was also around 3.1%, down about 25 basis points year-on-year, supporting the real economy [1] Group 2 - The recent meeting of the central bank's monetary policy committee highlighted the need to improve the market-based interest rate transmission mechanism and to reduce the overall financing costs in society [2] - There is an expectation of further monetary easing in the fourth quarter due to increasing downward pressure on the macro economy, with a focus on releasing 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools to stimulate investment [2] - The anticipated financial tools are expected to positively impact total demand and stabilize credit growth in the fourth quarter [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increased financial support from the government to boost infrastructure investment in China, which has seen a decline in growth rates since Q2 2025. The focus is on the rapid deployment of new policy financial tools and additional funding measures to stimulate effective investment and promote steady economic growth [4]. Group 1: Financial Tools and Measures - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced a new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion yuan, aimed at supplementing project capital. This initiative is expected to accelerate project construction and increase effective investment [5]. - As of October 17, the Agricultural Development Bank reported that the amount of new policy financial tools deployed exceeded 100 billion yuan, which could potentially drive an investment of 2.5 trillion yuan based on a 20% capital ratio [5]. - The Ministry of Finance allocated an additional 500 billion yuan from the local government debt limit to support local financial capacity and address existing government investment project debts [6]. Group 2: Debt and Project Initiatives - The Ministry of Finance also announced the early issuance of the 2026 local government debt limit to support key projects, with approximately 3.68 trillion yuan of new special bonds issued by September 30, 2025, which is 83.6% of the annual limit [7]. - Multiple regions, including Xinjiang, Jiangsu, and Anhui, have initiated significant project construction meetings, with hundreds of projects set to commence, indicating a push towards a construction surge in Q4 2025 [8].

据悉，国开新型政策性金融工具全部用于补充项目资本金，截至10月17日已向12个经济大省投放1465.8亿元，占比 77.4%；向民间投资和民间资本参与项目投放545.2亿元，占比28.8%；向数字经济、人工智能、消费等领域项目投放710.5亿 元，占比37.5%。 记者从中国农业发展银行获悉，该行将做好新型政策性金融工具工作作为重大政治任务，在9月29日获得监管部门批复 后，当日即完成基金公司注册、营业执照领取、基本账户开立、注册资本金到位等相关工作，并实现104.83亿元的首批基金投 放。自设立基金至10月17日15时，完成分配给农发行1500亿元额度的1001.11亿元基金投放，共支持项目562个，预计可拉动项 目总投资超1.26万亿元。同时，充分发挥基金投资优势，提前谋划"以投促贷""以贷引投"工作，提升投贷联动综合质效，全力 推动重大项目落地。 "新型政策性金融工具规模共5000亿元，全部用于补充项目资本金。国家发展改革委正在会同有关方面，抓紧将新型政策 性金融工具资金投放到具体项目，后续将督促各地方推动项目加快开工建设，尽快形成更多实物工作量，推动扩大有效投资， 促进经济平稳健康发展。"在9月29日 ...

10月20日，国家开发银行（下称"国开行"）消息显示，截至10月17日，国开新型政策性金融工具已投放 1893.5亿元，重点支持经济大省"挑大梁"，并加大对民间投资和新质生产力领域支持力度，预计可拉动项目 总投资2.8万亿元。 同日，进出口银行也公布了新型政策性金融工具投放的最新进展。进出口银行表示，在其已投放资金中，对经 济大省投放占比达83%，充分发挥经济大省"挑大梁"作用；对民间资本参与项目投放占比达40%，积极助力民 营经济发展；对数字经济、人工智能领域项目投放占比达40%，精准支持符合国家战略和重点发展方向领域。 此外，本次新型政策性金融工具的运用还强调了对民间投资和民间资本参与项目的支持力度。其中，国开行向 民间投资和民间资本参与项目投放545.2亿元，占其已投资金的比重为28.8%；农发行已投向民间投资项目的资 金为93.59亿元，占其已投资金的比重为9.35%。 从目前已公开的案例看，项目所获新型政策性金融工具额度占项目总投资的比重为5%—10%不等，占项目资 本金的比重则为25%—75%不等。根据市场机构测算，普遍预计5000亿元新型政策性金融工具将撬动约4 万亿 —5万亿元投资，对应约3 ...

新型政策性金融工具在加快投放。 10月20日，国家开发银行（下称"国开行"）消息显示，截至10月17日，国开新型政策性金融工具已投放 1893.5亿元，重点支持经济大省挑大梁，并加大对民间投资和新质生产力领域支持力度，预计可拉动项 目总投资2.8万亿元。 根据国家企业信用信息公示系统信息，三家政策性银行全资成立的资金投放主体分别为国开新型政策性 金融工具有限公司、农发新型政策性金融工具有限公司和进银新型政策性金融工具有限公司，三家公司 的注册资本分别为200亿元、100亿元和50亿元。 在投放节奏上，参考过往类似工具，2022年首批3000亿元政策性开发性金融工具从两家政策性银行的基 础设施基金公司成立（7月20日、7月21日），到资金投放完毕（8月26日），仅耗时一个月左右。而此 次农发行自9月29日至10月17日，就已投放所获资金额度的六成以上，资金投放速度可见一斑。 值得注意的是，在区域投向上，三家政策性银行均强调了向12个经济大省的投资力度，支持经济大省挑 大梁。其中，国开行投放1465.8亿元，占其已投资金的比重为77.4%；农发行则投放了671.36亿元，占 其已投资金的比重为67.06%。 "经 ...

新型政策性金融工具在加快投放。 10月20日，国家开发银行（下称"国开行"）消息显示，截至10月17日，国开新型政策性金融工具已投放 1893.5亿元，重点支持经济大省挑大梁，并加大对民间投资和新质生产力领域支持力度，预计可拉动项目 总投资2.8万亿元。 同日，进出口银行也公布了新型政策性金融工具投放的最新进展。进出口银行表示，在其已投放资金中， 对经济大省投放占比达83%，充分发挥经济大省"挑大梁"作用；对民间资本参与项目投放占比达40%，积 极助力民营经济发展；对数字经济、人工智能领域项目投放占比达40%，精准支持符合国家战略和重点发 展方向领域。 此外，本次新型政策性金融工具的运用还强调了对民间投资和民间资本参与项目的支持力度。其中，国开 行向民间投资和民间资本参与项目投放545.2亿元，占其已投资金的比重为28.8%；农发行已投向民间投 资项目的资金为93.59亿元，占其已投资金的比重为9.35%。 在此之前，中国农业发展银行（下称"农发行"）也发布消息称，自设立基金至10月17日15时，完成分配 给农发行1500亿元额度的1001.11亿元基金投放，共支持项目562个，预计可拉动项目总投资超1.26 ...

Economic Growth - Q3 GDP growth rate was 4.8%, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter, with nominal GDP growth at 3.7% compared to 3.9%[1] - The contribution of final consumption, gross capital formation, and net exports to GDP growth was 56.6%, 18.9%, and 24.5% respectively[14] - Q4 economic growth is expected to slightly decline to 4.7%, but achieving the annual growth target of around 5% is considered feasible[15] Industrial Production - In September, industrial added value increased by 6.5% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, with a month-on-month growth of 0.64%[3] - The capacity utilization rate for industrial enterprises was 74.6% in Q3, up 0.6 percentage points from Q2[21] - High-tech manufacturing added value grew by 9.6% year-on-year, contributing 24.7% to overall industrial growth[20] Consumer Spending - Retail sales of consumer goods in September grew by 3%, down from 3.4% in the previous month, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline[4] - The "trade-in" policy supported certain categories, but overall consumer spending is expected to remain under pressure in Q4 due to reduced fiscal support[32] - The restaurant sector saw a weak performance, with dining revenue growing only 0.9% year-on-year[33] Investment Trends - From January to September, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.5%, marking the first negative cumulative data since August 2020[7] - Real estate development investment fell by 13.9%, while manufacturing investment grew by 4.0%[43] - Infrastructure investment in the electricity, heat, and water production and supply sector increased by 15.3% year-on-year, contributing 1.1 percentage points to overall investment growth[42] Employment and Policy - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in September was 5.2%, showing a slight decline, aided by policies supporting employment for college graduates[8] - The government is gradually prioritizing expanding domestic demand and consumption, indicating a shift towards counter-cyclical measures[34]

根据最新报价，1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%，两个期限品种的LPR报价均是连续5个月保 持不变。在东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青看来，10月两个期限品种的LPR报价保持不变，符合市场预 期。 娄飞鹏认为，LPR连续第5个月保持不变，一方面是我国经济持续恢复，另一方面，商业银行融资成本 上行，同业存单到期收益率上行。同时，银行净息差本身已经处于低位并且仍然面临下行压力，报价行 主动压缩加点、下调LPR的动力显著不足。再者是贷款利率已处历史低位，政策观察期延续，暂无迫切 的进一步降息需求。 10月15日，央行发布前三季度金融数据表现相对良好，贷款利率持续保持低位水平。9月份企业新发放 贷款(本外币)加权平均利率约为3.1%，比上年同期低约40个基点；个人住房新发放贷款（本外币）加权 平均利率约为3.1%，比上年同期低约25个基点。此时，降低LPR报价或许并非当务之急。 21世纪经济报道记者 边万莉 10月LPR报价依然不变，维持了今年5月以来的利率水平。中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心 公布，2025年10月20日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5 ...