特朗普政府将通知来自古巴、海地、尼加拉瓜和委内瑞拉的移民，他们（在美国）的合法身份已被终 止。 ...

金十数据6月12日讯，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体最新发文："我们伟大的农民和酒店休闲行业从业者一 直表示， 我们非常强硬的移民政策正在让他们失去非常优秀的长期员工，而这些工作几乎难以替代。 在很多情况下，被极其愚蠢的拜登开放边境政策允许进入我国的'犯罪分子'正在申请这些工作。这很糟 糕。我们必须保护我们的农民，但也要让'犯罪分子'离开美国。 变革即将到来！" 订阅特朗普动态 +订阅 特朗普：移民政策致农旅业缺工 变革即将到来 ...

Group 1 - The Los Angeles Police Department reported that 225 individuals were arrested during protests on June 10, with 203 for failing to disperse, 17 for violating curfew, and others for various offenses [1] - A curfew was imposed in parts of downtown Los Angeles from 8 PM to 6 AM due to ongoing protests [1] - The U.S. Northern Command announced that 700 Marines were being trained for potential deployment to assist in managing the protests, although the timeline for their deployment remains unclear [1] Group 2 - In Chicago, 17 individuals were arrested during protests on June 10, with 4 facing felony charges and 10 facing misdemeanor charges [2] - Protests against the Trump administration's immigration policies spread nationwide, with plans for synchronized protests on June 14 coinciding with a parade in Washington, D.C., covering multiple states [2]

Group 1 - Protests in Los Angeles have led to the implementation of a curfew from June 10 at 8 PM to June 11 at 6 AM in certain areas due to ongoing unrest and looting [1][2] - Over the past four days, at least 378 arrests have been made in Los Angeles, with 225 individuals arrested on June 10 alone [1][2] - Protests are also occurring in other major cities across the U.S., including New York, where thousands participated in a significant demonstration on June 10 [3][5] Group 2 - The California government has filed a temporary restraining order against the federal government to prevent military deployment in Los Angeles, which has faced strong opposition from state officials [6] - The deployment of military personnel in the Los Angeles area has reached 4,800, with 700 active-duty Marines on standby [6] - The spread of misinformation and conspiracy theories related to the protests has been noted, with social media platforms being flooded with misleading content [8][9] Group 3 - Tensions between the U.S. and Mexico have escalated, with U.S. officials accusing the Mexican president of inciting protests in Los Angeles, which the Mexican president has denied [11][12] - The presence of Mexican flags at protests has sparked controversy, with some viewing it as evidence of "invasion" while others argue that most protesters are U.S. citizens exercising their rights [11][12]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is undergoing a profound structural change driven by the Trump administration's strict immigration policies, with May's non-farm payrolls dropping by 696,000, the largest monthly decline since the onset of the pandemic in 2020 [1][3] - The balance of supply and demand in the labor market is being artificially disrupted, leading to a significant reduction in labor supply, particularly affecting labor-intensive sectors such as construction, agriculture, and services [3] - Despite a historically low unemployment rate of 4.2%, only 139,000 new jobs were added in May, indicating a shrinking labor supply rather than an increase in job opportunities [3] Group 2 - The artificial labor shortage is causing multiple economic impacts, including rising wage levels that may exacerbate inflationary pressures, and a long-term reduction in the potential growth rate of the U.S. economy [3] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that average monthly job growth may remain at 170,000 in 2024 but decline to 90,000 by the end of 2025 and further to 80,000 in 2026, with the "breakeven job growth" needed to maintain stable unemployment potentially dropping to as low as 50,000 per month [3][4] - The structural changes in the labor market present unprecedented policy dilemmas for the Federal Reserve, as tight labor conditions and wage pressures necessitate a more hawkish monetary policy, while the ongoing reduction in economic growth potential requires policy flexibility [4] Group 3 - The uncertainty surrounding immigration policies complicates economic forecasts, with the Congressional Budget Office projecting net immigration numbers to fall to 2 million and 1.5 million in 2025 and 2026, respectively, significantly lower than the 3.3 million in 2023 [4] - This uncertainty not only affects the labor market but also has broader implications for consumption and investment, potentially impacting the overall economy [4] - Market participants should be cautious of the chain reactions stemming from these policy distortions, as short-term labor shortages may support a stronger dollar, while long-term growth potential reductions could lead to downward pressure on the dollar [4]

Core Viewpoint - The significant changes in the U.S. immigration landscape are distorting the employment market, making it harder for investors and policymakers to accurately assess the actual slowdown in the labor market [1] Group 1: Labor Market Dynamics - A reduction in immigration supply could lead to a tighter labor market, potentially suppressing the rise in unemployment rates, despite being a temporary and artificial effect [1] - Recent data shows a decrease of 696,000 jobs in May, the largest single-month drop since the historic decline at the beginning of the pandemic in 2020, with some economists attributing this decline to the Trump administration's immigration crackdown [1][2] Group 2: Employment Growth Metrics - The "breakeven" employment growth value, which indicates the net new jobs needed to keep up with the growth of the working-age population and maintain stable unemployment rates, is declining [4] - Morgan Stanley economists noted that the average monthly "breakeven" employment growth was 210,000 last year, dropping to 170,000 this year, and projected to fall to 90,000 by the end of the year and 80,000 next year [8] - Ryan Sweet from Oxford Economics predicts that due to weak labor supply growth, the "breakeven" employment growth is rapidly approaching 50,000 per month [8] Group 3: Implications for Monetary Policy - The low unemployment rate may persist but could be due to misleading reasons, as indicated by Sweet [9] - If predictions hold true, monthly job growth in the U.S. may continue to slow without raising the unemployment rate, creating a confusing signal for investors and policymakers [10] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized the labor market's stability and low unemployment, but acknowledged the need to examine a broader set of labor market indicators for a more accurate assessment [10] Group 4: Immigration Projections - The Congressional Budget Office projected net immigration to be 2 million this year and 1.5 million next year, down from 3.3 million in 2023, but these estimates may be overly optimistic given the Trump administration's hardline stance on immigration [11] - Morgan Stanley economists have significantly revised their net immigration forecasts down to 800,000 this year and 500,000 next year, suggesting a potential "false" tight labor market with monthly non-farm job growth far below 100,000 [11]

【环球网报道】美国加利福尼亚州洛杉矶爆发的抗议活动和骚乱仍在持续。据美国《华盛顿邮报》报道，美国国土安全部长克丽丝蒂·诺姆当地时间10日指 控墨西哥总统克劳迪娅·辛鲍姆"煽动"洛杉矶抗议活动，辛鲍姆同日晚些时候对此予以驳斥。 报道称，诺姆早些时候在白宫对记者说，"辛鲍姆站了出来，煽动在洛杉矶举行更多抗议活动，我谴责她的行为。她不应煽动正在进行的暴力抗议活动。" "我对此（指暴力抗议）一直持反对态度，现在我肩负着重大责任，反对立场更甚以往。与此同时，我们的立场现在和将来都会是捍卫诚实、勤劳的墨西哥 人，他们既为美国经济做出了贡献，也支撑着他们墨西哥家人的生活。"辛鲍姆在帖文中说。 辛鲍姆随后在社交平台X上发帖称，这项指控"完全错误"，并在该帖中附上此前一天她接受记者采访时发表评论的视频。视频中，她谴责暴力行为，并呼吁 洛杉矶的墨西哥社区"以和平的方式行事"。 美国总统特朗普以国家安全为由推行强硬移民政策，再次入主白宫后下令大规模抓捕和驱逐非法移民。美国移民与海关执法局等联邦机构执法人员本月6日 开始在洛杉矶搜捕非法移民，引发抗议和骚乱。与此同时，墨西哥国旗在洛杉矶抗议活动现场飘扬，在美国引发巨大争议。一些美国媒 ...

新华社洛杉矶6月9日电（记者黄恒）美国移民与海关执法局等联邦机构9日继续在加利福尼亚州南部地 区展开打击非法移民行动，在距离洛杉矶市约50公里的奥兰治县圣安娜市遭到当地社区居民抗议，双方 发生激烈冲突。 当地时间9日傍晚，数百名抗议者聚集在位于圣安娜市中心的联邦机构大楼门前，挥舞标语，要求释放 当天白天在该市多处地点被逮捕的当地居民。抗议活动后来逐渐失控，执法人员发射催泪弹和橡皮子 弹，试图驱散人群，还使用了胡椒喷雾，抗议者用爆竹和石块还击。 一位自称是志愿医护人员的女士告诉当地媒体，执法人员向人群发射橡皮子弹后，有多人在现场因伤接 受了救治。 圣安娜市警察局在接到联邦政府官员求援请求后介入，于当地时间当晚8时30分宣布该集会非法，称"原 本合法的集会升级为向警察和其他公众投掷物品，对公共安全、财产和社区福祉构成了威胁"。 圣安娜市议会成员杰茜·洛佩斯对当地媒体说，当地居民只是在表达对特朗普政府移民政策的不满，抗 议是和平的，但联邦机构执法人员突然向人群发射催泪弹和橡皮子弹，"这完全是针对我们选民的暴力 行为"。 移民与海关执法局等联邦机构6日和7日出动大批执法人员，在洛杉矶县多地展开针对非法移民的搜捕行 动 ...

可以预见的是，大量驱逐非法移民也正冲击美国经济。 美国一场针对非法移民的"搜捕战"，正不断发酵、升级成激烈的街头对峙。 据新华社报道，当地时间8日中午，在洛杉矶市中心联邦执法机构门前的抗议者与部署在该地的国民警 卫队人员发生冲突。国民警卫队人员发射催泪弹和橡皮子弹试图驱散抗议人群，但抗议者越来越多，从 最初数十人增加到1000人以上。 这是一场关于移民问题的三方博弈。据新华社报道，大量加利福尼亚州（以下简称"加州"）民众不满联 邦政府抓捕非法移民，在街头抗议。美国总统特朗普公开称，洛杉矶"被非法移民和犯罪分子侵占"，将 采取一切必要行动"解放"洛杉矶。20余名民主党州长联合发表声明称，特朗普向洛杉矶派遣州国民警卫 队是"令人担忧的权力滥用"，"既无效又危险"。 收紧移民签证、驱逐非法移民，一直是特朗普政府的核心政策议程。然而在美国，合法和非法移民为全 美贡献了近五分之一的劳动力，每年拉动实际GDP增长约0.1个百分点（美国国会预算办公室，即CBO 测算），大肆驱逐移民或将付出惨重的经济代价。 美国经济第一大州成风暴中心 "洛杉矶之乱"的直接导火索，在于美国联邦执法机构在南加州展开严打搜捕非法移民的行动。据央视 ...

以下文章来源于无法可说 ，作者郑渝川hiecy 无法可说 . 一弦一柱思华年。 本文来自微信公众号： 无法可说 ，作者：郑渝川hiecy，题图来自：视觉中国 6 月 8 日凌晨，美国总统特朗普通过社交媒体发文，再斥加州政府无能，同时夸赞国民警卫队"表现 出色"。 自 6 月 6 日上午开始，美国移民与海关执法局等联邦机构出动大批执法人员，在 加州 洛杉矶县多地 展开针对非法移民的执法行动。这些行动已连续两天引起大量街头对峙、混乱和冲突。白宫新闻秘书 莱维特 6 月 7 日发表声明说，美国总统特朗普已签署一份备忘录，向洛杉矶部署 2000 名国民警卫队 人员，以协助联邦机构执法人员在加利福尼亚州南部地区展开针对非法移民的大规模搜捕行动。 美国 国防部长赫格塞思 更是宣称， 国防部正 "立即动员"国民警卫队前往洛杉矶，而且，"如果暴力 持续，将动员现役海军陆战队员，他们已经处于高度戒备状态"。 洛杉矶女市长卡伦 ·巴斯 此前 发表声明，对联邦当局突击行动表示强烈谴责。她说，移民为洛杉矶 做出许多贡献，执法人员的行动， "在我们的社区散播恐惧，破坏我们城市的基本安全原则"。被激 怒的加州州长纽森，指责特朗普政府完全 ...