一场精心设计的"贸易战"：七日溃败与美国信用的崩塌 2025年4月2日，一场备受瞩目的"对等关税"行政令在美国签署。时任总统特朗普雄心勃勃，试图以此重塑全球贸易版图，然而，事与愿违，这场本应改变世 界格局的举措，却在短短七日之内，将美国自身推入了进退维谷的境地。 仅仅一周之后，美国政府被迫宣布为期90天的关税暂停令，且将除中国以外的商品关税统一降至10%。这并非出于高明的谈判策略，而更像是被迫的"投 降"，而且是以一种近乎狼狈的方式。美国国内的专家们一针见血地指出："总统将国家拖入了一场根本无望获胜的战争。"这句话精准地捕捉到了这场风暴 的核心——从一开始，这场"战争"就注定了失败的结局。 特朗普团队的设计，建立在三个致命的错误假设之上： 其一，他们错误地认为，美国的金融市场能够像2018年那样，承受住前所未有的冲击。然而，如今美国背负着高达37万亿美元的国债，每年仅利息支出就高 达1.2万亿美元，占联邦收入的四分之一。即使是10年期美债收益率微涨50个基点，都可能为财政增加数千亿美元的负担。4月2日政策发布后的七天内，美 债收益率从4.12%飙升至4.516%，债券市场迅速陷入流动性真空。这已不再是普通的市 ...

01、美国未偿国债30万亿债务，到底有多夸张？ 咱们先算笔直观的账：30万亿美元，如果换成1美元纸币，首尾相连能绕地球赤道115圈。 更吓人的是，美国现在每天光付债务利息就接近27亿美元，2025财年利息支出已经超过国防开支，成了联邦预算第三大项。 这可不是突然暴涨的数字。 美国国会预算办公室（CBO）原本预测2030年才会达到30万亿，结果提前5年就"撞线"。 王爷说财经讯：历史性突破！美国未偿国债第一次超过30万亿美元！ 12月5日，据美国财政部12月4 日最新公布的数据显示，美国未偿国债规模正式冲破30万亿美元大关！这可是人类历史上从未有过的债务体量，相当于每个 美国人要扛近9万美元债务。 那么为何美国未偿国债这么多？接下来，美债会不会违约？这会引发全球金融海啸吗？一起来看看！ 2025财年美国联邦预算赤字高达1.775万亿美元，政府一边搞大规模减税，一边在军费、医保上大把撒钱，支出突破7万亿美元，收入却赶不上支出增速。 相当于一个家庭月入5万，却要花7万，只能靠借钱补窟窿。 其次，美国政府借新还旧成恶性循环。 现在美国每新增1万亿债务只需要三个月，完全靠发行新债还旧债的利息。更麻烦的是，特朗普政府的关 ...

Group 1: Digital Currency Regulations - The U.S. White House has established a presidential task force on digital asset markets while banning the development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) within the U.S. [1] - China has intensified its crackdown on virtual currencies, with over 150 cases of money laundering related to virtual currencies reported since 2025, involving amounts exceeding 10 billion RMB [3]. - The People's Bank of China has identified stablecoins as a significant risk, with global cryptocurrency market volatility exceeding 70% in 2025, raising concerns about the transparency and safety of the underlying assets of stablecoins [3]. Group 2: U.S. Debt and Stablecoins - The U.S. federal debt is growing at nearly $2 trillion annually, surpassing $37.2 trillion, with stablecoins being seen as a new anchor for the dollar [4]. - Currently, the global stablecoin market is approximately $267.4 billion, with 95% being dollar-pegged stablecoins, which are heavily invested in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds [4]. - The "Payment Stablecoin Act" mandates that stablecoin issuers must invest 100% of their reserves in U.S. cash or short-term Treasury bonds, creating a mechanism for debt absorption that links stablecoin growth to U.S. debt demand [4]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The evolution of the dollar's anchoring mechanisms has transitioned from the gold standard established in 1944 to the current reliance on stablecoins, with over 98% of stablecoin market value pegged to the dollar [5]. - The U.S. is working on establishing a "digital dollar anchor," as emerging digital economic scenarios increasingly depend on this framework [5]. - The competition between the U.S. and China in the digital currency space is expected to deepen over the next five years as dollar stablecoins approach the trillion-dollar mark [8]. Group 4: Strategic Considerations for China - China's recent actions to strengthen its defenses against virtual currencies reflect strategic considerations, including the potential financial risks associated with the deep integration of U.S. stablecoins and Treasury bonds [6]. - Cross-border capital flows through virtual currencies have increased by 150% in 2024, posing new challenges for traditional regulatory measures [6]. - The internationalization of the renminbi is at a critical stage, with cross-border trade settlements in renminbi surpassing 31.5% in Q3 2024, necessitating measures to prevent stablecoin systems from creating barriers to this process [6]. Group 5: Digital Currency Initiatives in China - The pilot program for China's digital currency has expanded to 26 regions, covering various scenarios such as cross-border trade and supply chain finance [7]. - China is actively participating in the formulation of international digital currency regulations while balancing risk management and cooperation [7]. - The approval of 16 virtual asset service providers in Hong Kong since 2023 supports China's differentiated strategy of strict domestic regulation while piloting overseas [7].

欧洲这份清醒来得太迟了！金灿荣的预判极其狠辣：俄乌一旦收场，最大的输家不是乌克兰，而是那个 被美国当猴耍了三年的欧洲。看着美国不仅没提供安全，反而吸干了欧洲的血，普京更加确信：跟这种 毫无信誉的霸权国家合作，就是自寻死路。 三年前俄乌冲突刚爆发时，欧洲多国跟着美国高举制裁大旗，本以为能快速压制俄罗斯，顺便彰显自己 的战略立场，可没人想到这会是一场把自己拖入泥潭的消耗战。 能源领域最先传来噩耗，欧洲过去依赖俄罗斯廉价的天然气和石油，北溪管道曾是保障能源安全的生命 线，可冲突爆发后，这条线路被切断，欧洲只能转头向美国求救。 美国倒是"慷慨"地敞开了供应大门，只是价格翻了好几倍，2022年美国对欧液化天然气出口量暴涨 120%，每艘运气量达17万立方米的LNG船到港时，欧洲企业就得支付上亿美元的费用。 德国化工巨头巴斯夫算了一笔账，能源成本飙升让企业每年多支出几十亿欧元，不得已只能把部分生产 线搬到美国，那里有更便宜的能源和补贴政策。 不止巴斯夫，大众、宝马等车企也纷纷跟进，欧洲制造业的根基正在被能源价格这把刀慢慢切割，2023 年欧元区工业产出同比下降2.1%，工厂倒闭潮从东欧蔓延到西欧。 法国总统马克龙忍不住吐 ...

Core Insights - On November 28, 2025, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) experienced a significant technical failure, leading to an 11-hour suspension of futures and options trading, impacting over $15 trillion in nominal value contracts [1][2] - The CME attributed the outage to overheating at a third-party data center, which raised skepticism given the cold weather conditions in Chicago and the typically low trading volume during the Thanksgiving holiday [2][3] - The outage coincided with a surge in silver prices, suggesting potential market manipulation or strategic positioning by large traders ahead of the first delivery day for physical commodities [3][5] Group 1 - The CME's outage resulted in approximately $600 billion in nominal value positions unable to hedge or roll over, leading to over $1 billion in losses for institutions forced to close positions at unfavorable prices [1][2] - The incident raised questions about the reliability of CME's infrastructure, especially given the extended recovery time which is usually between 1-4 hours for such events [2][3] - There were reports of a significant demand for physical silver delivery, with claims of a large entity requesting 400 million ounces, equivalent to half of the world's annual silver production [5][6] Group 2 - The timing of the outage, just before a major delivery day, suggests a possible strategic advantage for the CME and its participants, potentially allowing for negotiations or adjustments to trading rules [9][10] - The situation reflects broader market dynamics, including the impact of interest rate changes in Japan and China, which could affect liquidity in U.S. markets and lead to similar operational disruptions in the future [12][13] - The CME's handling of the outage and its implications for market integrity may influence investor confidence and trading behavior moving forward [11][12]

在俄乌冲突即将步入第四年、美国政治格局剧烈波动、欧洲安全感显著崩塌的背景下，一个此前几乎难以设想的议题正被推向舆论前沿： 如果特朗普为谋求私利与普京达成交易、不惜牺牲乌克兰，欧洲是否将抛售美国国债，从而对美国发动一场真正意义上的"经济战"？ 这一问题的表层是地缘政治博弈，其深层却指向一个更为尖锐的现实： 站在"美欧同盟"与"自主道路"的十字路口，欧洲究竟还保留多少战略自主性？ 本文认为： 欧洲可能会高调"威胁"使用金融武器，但实际孤注一掷对美国发动经济战的概率极低。 真正值得关注的，并非一次性"核打击"，而是欧洲在未来数年中可能持续推进的对美渐进式"软脱钩"。 这一趋势，才是对美国霸权最致命且最现实的长期挑战。 以下从五个方面展开论述： 一、特朗普欲把乌克兰作为与俄罗斯交易获取利益的筹码 要理解欧洲为何放风"考虑抛售美债"，需先厘清当前战略棋局中的三方态势： 1，俄罗斯正深陷战争泥潭。 为维持军事行动，2026年预算中计划投入1660亿美元，占财政总支出三分之一以上，比例达苏联解体以来峰值。迫于财政压力，俄政府已 采取削减福利、增税和加征各类费用等措施。 战争之所以得以持续，部分得益于能源出口收入，但国内经济 ...

CFN | 大河/文 当地时间11月30日，美国总统特朗普确认已敲定下一任美联储主席人选，尽管具体提名尚未公布，但无论最终接任者是市场预测概率达58%的凯文・哈西 特，还是其他四位候选者之一，其上任后都将直面美国经济多重矛盾交织的复杂局面——经济增长乏力、就业市场降温、债务规模高企、美元霸权根基松 动，叠加美联储政策独立性受政治干预的风险，这一职位的挑战难度已远超往届。 经济增长与通胀的双向挤压：政策决策陷入两难 债务规模高企：降息与偿债成本的矛盾凸显 美国联邦债务的庞大规模，让下一任美联储主席的政策选择被层层束缚。截至2025年，美国联邦债务总额已达36.2万亿美元，其中9.2万亿美元将于年内到 期，占债务总额的25.4%；2024财年美国债务利息支付已超1万亿美元，若美联储按特朗普要求降息，虽能暂时降低政府借贷成本，但长期低利率环境可能 进一步刺激债务扩张，加剧债务不可持续风险；若维持高利率，到期债务再融资成本将大幅上升，联邦财政压力陡增。 这一矛盾在哈西特成为热门人选的背景下更显突出：哈西特若获提名并推动激进降息，短期或缓解债务付息压力，但会强化市场对美国债务"借新还旧"模式 的担忧，削弱美债信用；若偏 ...

美国政府停摆虽已结束，但其后遗症仍在持续发作。停摆带来的"数据迷雾"令美联储和市场难以抉择， 折射出美国经济治理中难以逾越的体制性困境。这恰如附骨之疽侵袭美国经济根基，并且不断威胁全球 经济稳定。 当地时间11月12日，持续43天的美国联邦政府停摆落幕。这次创下历史纪录的停摆，不仅每天给美国经 济带来巨额损失，更让美国劳工统计局和经济分析局等机构一度停止经济数据收集和发布工作，令美联 储和市场陷入"在浓雾中盲飞"的困境。可靠的经济数据是科学决策的基础。近年来，美联储放弃前瞻性 指引，转为依赖数据进行决策，因此政府停摆导致美联储等重要决策机构迅速陷入"数据真空"。尽管9 月非农就业、9月居民消费价格指数（CPI）等数据在停摆结束后陆续补发，但美联储在12月议息会议 前的参考数据依然不足，12月是否继续降息成为近期市场关注的焦点之一。 对企业而言，缺乏可靠的官方数据作为指引，其投资、招聘和定价策略的制定会面临更多不确定性。对 普通民众而言，信息真空容易引发信心波动和恐慌。而在国际层面，多国通常依赖美国数据来研判全球 最大经济体的走势，从而评估本国货币、贸易和通胀前景。有媒体在美国政府停摆期间称，美国经济数 据"断 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central argument is that the recent actions by the central bank against stablecoins are not merely routine measures but a proactive strategy to prevent the outflow of Chinese capital to the U.S. through these digital assets, which are seen as a threat to financial stability [2][20][32]. Group 1: Characteristics of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are perceived as tools that bypass the Chinese financial system, functioning as a shadow dollar system that avoids regulatory oversight [5][11]. - Key features of stablecoins include their direct peg to the U.S. dollar, rapid transaction speeds, anonymity, and the ability to facilitate cross-border transactions without institutional oversight [7][9]. - The use of stablecoins allows individuals to transfer funds abroad without engaging with official financial institutions, posing a significant risk to the Chinese financial system [11][20]. Group 2: U.S. Perspective on Stablecoins - The U.S. views stablecoins as a means to reinforce the dominance of the dollar globally, allowing for more flexible and discreet transactions that do not rely on traditional banking systems [13][15]. - The proliferation of stablecoins enables the U.S. to maintain its financial hegemony, as more countries using stablecoins increases their reliance on the dollar [17]. - Stablecoins serve as a rapid conduit for capital to flow into the U.S. market, especially during financial instability in other countries, circumventing local capital controls [18][20]. Group 3: Regulatory Response in China - The central bank's recent shift from risk warnings to strict regulations reflects a recognition of the rising illegal activities associated with stablecoins, including money laundering and fraud [21][24]. - There has been a notable increase in the use of stablecoins for cross-border transactions, prompting concerns about their role in facilitating capital flight [24][27]. - The decision to blacklist stablecoins is framed as a necessary measure to protect financial sovereignty and prevent external forces from undermining the Chinese financial system [29][31].

近日，俄罗斯财政部宣布将于2025年12月8日首次发行以人民币计价的主权债券，认购登记已于12 月2日启动。这一举措再次引发国际舆论关注。人民币国际化并非出于对抗目的，而是全球市场逻辑演 进、国际贸易结构变化与中国金融体系稳健发展的自然结果。它既非刻意为之的战略进攻，也非被动防 御的权宜之计，而是在多重动因交织下水到渠成的历史进程。 首先，人民币债券海外市场追捧，源于其高收益高稳定性的市场主动选择。近年来，包括俄罗斯、 匈牙利、印度尼西亚、阿联酋等国纷纷发行人民币计价主权债券，同时越来越多外国机构在中国境内发 行"熊猫债券"。这些行为的背后是对人民币资产价值的认可。在全球主要经济体利率持续波动、部分货 币信用风险上升的背景下，人民币资产展现出相对稳定的收益率和较低的波动性，成为全球投资者优化 资产配置、分散风险的重要选项。这种由市场供需关系主导的资本流动，恰恰体现了人民币作为国际投 资货币的功能正在稳步增强。 其次，人民币国际化是应对美元霸权及其支付工具武器化的被动适应。近年来，美国频繁将美元清 算系统（如SWIFT）作为制裁他国的工具，使得许多国家深刻意识到过度依赖单一货币带来的战略脆弱 性。在此背景下，推 ...