大家早上好！这里是今天的早报，每天早上，我都会在这里跟你聊聊昨夜今晨发生了哪些大事儿。 本 栏目由虎嗅出品。 周末要闻 【网警打谣：传播涉刘国梁不实信息，2人被处罚】 据界面新闻，公安部网安局5月17日消息，近日，一则关于国际乒联第一副主席、WTT世界乒联主席、中国乒 协原主席刘国梁的不实信息在互联网传播，误导大量网民关注和讨论。 据潇湘晨报，5月18日，多名网友反映，17日在贵阳市花果园小区附近发生一起交通事故，一辆小米SU7电动 车在行驶中撞到人，疑似造成人员伤亡。视频显示，现场有人躺在地上，来了多辆警车和救护车。5月18日， 潇湘晨报记者致电贵阳市南明区交警，一名工作人员表示，确有该起事故，人员伤亡情况他得去问一下。随 后，另一名工作人员接线表示，并不了解该事故，不便回应，"具体会有相关部门处理的。" 公安网安部门查明，网民杜某川、汤某在网上恶意传播相关谣言，造成谣言大量传播扩散，影响恶劣。目前， 属地公安机关已依法对杜某川、汤某等2人处以行政处罚。 网络不是法外之地，在网上发布信息必须遵守法律法规，切勿编造、传播不实信息。对于任何造谣、传谣行 为，警方将坚决依法予以打击，绝不姑息迁就 。希望广大网民能 ...

关税，这个曾在特朗普字典里被称作"最美妙"的词，现在看起来似乎开始变得不那么吸引人了。搞了一段时间的关税大戏，特朗普现在却对中国示好，甚 至提出可能会降低对华关税。这一举动着实值得认真琢磨。到底是什么让特朗普从"关税是好东西"到开始考虑降低关税？更重要的是，这会对中美关系乃 至全球市场造成什么影响呢？ 特朗普的关税狂想曲我们都知道，特朗普一向以特立独行的风格见长，尤其是在贸易政策上，他总喜欢用关税这把"双刃剑"来搅动风云。在当初，他甚至 预告过美国针对中国的145%高额关税，声称这是为了促成一项"公平"的交易。不仅如此，他还设下条件：只有当协议达成，美国才会考虑降低关税。 而更大的压力来自于金融市场。股市暴跌、债券收益率上升，都是美国经济不健康的信号。特朗普原本把这些看做是"治病"的阵痛，但当国债利息支出将 美国财政收入压得喘不过气来时，他不得不开始另寻出路。美国国债总规模已超过36万亿美元，利息压力巨大，在这种背景下，任何让利息支出增大的政 策调整都会被视作"开闸放血"。 谁在抛售美债？ 令人关注的不仅仅是美国的问题，还有幕后的"推手"。当美国国债收益率上升时，意味着有人在大规模抛售美债，那么是谁干的？目前 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, indicated that the digital asset market could become a significant buyer of U.S. Treasury bonds, potentially creating up to $2 trillion in demand over the next few years [1] - As of the end of last year, JPMorgan estimated that approximately $114 billion of U.S. Treasury bonds were used as reserves for stablecoins, which, while less than 2% of the total circulation, is growing rapidly [1] - Becerra acknowledged low participation rates from primary dealers in recent Treasury auctions, suggesting regulatory issues may be limiting their ability to participate [1] Group 2 - Becerra emphasized the need for the U.S. to become the preferred destination for digital assets and to create a robust market structure for global best practices [2] - There are significant divisions in Congress regarding cryptocurrency regulation, with Republican proposals for a new regulatory framework facing opposition from some Democratic members [3] - Concerns have been raised about potential conflicts of interest related to former President Trump's involvement in the cryptocurrency space, particularly with his launch of a MEME coin [3]

Group 1 - The total U.S. national debt has reached $36 trillion, nearly 1.5 times the GDP, with annual interest payments amounting to $1.1 trillion [2] - The largest creditors of U.S. debt are domestic individuals and institutions, holding 76% of the total debt, indicating a high level of "internal circulation" [3] - Major domestic holders include individual and household investors ($2.1 trillion), the Federal Reserve ($4.2 trillion), commercial banks ($3.8 trillion), and pension funds [3] Group 2 - International creditors hold about 24% of U.S. debt, primarily from Japan, China, and the UK, with Japan being the largest external creditor at approximately $1.07 trillion [4] - China has reduced its holdings by over $500 billion in the past decade, currently holding about $760.8 billion, making it the second-largest external creditor [4] - Other notable external creditors include the Cayman Islands ($397 billion), Saudi Arabia ($135.6 billion), and various European countries [5] Group 3 - The ongoing increase in U.S. debt and fiscal deficit has raised questions about the creditworthiness and safety of U.S. debt, influenced by geopolitical factors [5] - Major external creditors like Japan, China, and the UK have been reducing their holdings, while neighboring countries like Canada and Mexico are increasing their investments in U.S. debt [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is expected to trigger the debt ceiling X-date in late summer, with the possibility of it occurring earlier [1] Group 1 - The Director of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Phillip Swagel, has indicated that the U.S. still maintains the trust of global investors regarding its national debt [1] - U.S. fiscal revenues are in line with various expectations, suggesting a stable financial outlook [1]

Group 1 - The impact of tariffs on various industries is significant, with the U.S. relying heavily on imports of manufactured goods from China, while China imports mainly commodities from the U.S. [4] - Over 70% of products imported by the U.S. from China account for 36% of total imports, while only 10% of products imported by China from the U.S. have a similar reliance [4] - The contribution of exports to the U.S. from China is less than 3% of China's GDP, indicating that excessive tariffs may not significantly harm China's economy [4] Group 2 - Tariffs are expected to indirectly affect the profitability of Chinese companies through a slowdown in global GDP growth, with Goldman Sachs lowering its U.S. economic growth forecast for Q4 2025 from 2.5% to 0.5% [5][6] - The anticipated increase in China's fiscal deficit to 14.5% of GDP and a 60 basis point cut in interest rates are expected to mitigate some of the negative impacts of tariffs [6] Group 3 - The Chinese government may increase fiscal support for affected export products and consider measures to assist the 10-20 million jobs linked to exports to the U.S. [7] - Infrastructure projects may be expedited to stimulate GDP growth amidst trade tensions [7] Group 4 - The current market response to U.S.-China relations is less intense than in previous years, with the Goldman Sachs U.S.-China Relations Index indicating lower pressure compared to the peaks of 2022-2023 [8][9] Group 5 - Recent policies aimed at stabilizing the A-share market have shown effectiveness, with a focus on attracting long-term investments and improving shareholder returns [10] - The national team's intervention has provided market stability, with sufficient liquidity support available if needed [11] Group 6 - Overseas funds have increased their positions in Chinese stocks, particularly in the AI sector, with a notable rise in allocations to emerging markets and Asia [12] - A-shares are expected to outperform H-shares in the next three months due to domestic investor stability and government support [13][14] Group 7 - Key sectors to watch include consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, and government-related industries, which are expected to be less negatively impacted by external risks [15][16] Group 8 - The likelihood of Chinese companies being forced to delist from U.S. markets is lower than in previous trade disputes, as many have already listed in Hong Kong [17] Group 9 - The extent of tariff increases will depend on the desired outcomes, balancing revenue generation and the potential loss of exports [18] Group 10 - The recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields has raised questions about who is selling U.S. debt, with diversification of foreign reserves being a potential factor [19]

日本财务大臣加藤胜信：（被问及他是否在与美国财长贝森特会面时讨论了日本持有的巨额美国国债） 这很难说。 ...

美国国债回吐涨幅，因ISM制造业指数超出预期。 ...

美国总统国家安全事务助理华尔兹表示， 美国目前背负着33万亿美元的国债，无法再继续资助欧洲的安全事务。 华尔兹强调，美国总统特朗普政府将继续在军事和外交方面援助欧洲，但白宫将收紧要求。 ...

Group 1: Mastercard's Initiative - Mastercard announced plans to offer merchants the option to accept payments and settlements in "stablecoins," marking a significant milestone for stablecoins in the cryptocurrency space [1] - The company is collaborating with payment processor Nuvei and stablecoin issuers Circle and Paxos to facilitate payments using cryptocurrency protocols [1] - Mastercard is also partnering with cryptocurrency exchange OKX to launch a new electronic credit card, further expanding its support for cryptocurrency transactions [1] Group 2: Regulatory Developments - The bipartisan "GENIUS Act" aims to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoin payments in the U.S., having passed a committee vote in March and moving towards full legislative action [1] - Standard Chartered forecasts that if the GENIUS Act is passed, the global stablecoin market could surge to $2 trillion within three years [1][3] Group 3: Market Growth and Impact - The market capitalization of dollar-pegged stablecoins has skyrocketed from under $30 billion to $220 billion in just five years, now exceeding 0.8% of the U.S. dollar M2 money supply [3] - Approximately 85%-90% of stablecoin reserves are directed towards short-term U.S. Treasury securities, indicating a significant demand source for the bond market [3] - Analysts predict that the growth of stablecoins could create a structural demand for short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, potentially accounting for about 40% of the Treasury's short-term issuance in 2023 [3][4]