Group 1 - The meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump on October 30 marks a significant historical moment, being their first meeting in six years and the first during Trump's new term [2] - The discussions focused on U.S.-China economic and trade relations, with both sides agreeing to enhance cooperation in these areas [2] - Following the meeting, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced the outcomes of negotiations in Kuala Lumpur, including the U.S. decision to cancel the 10% "Fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and to suspend the 24% "reciprocal tariff" for one year [2][4] Group 2 - The trade negotiations between the U.S. and China have been ongoing since May 2025, with five rounds of talks held, leading to significant tariff reductions and suspensions [3][4] - The recent agreements signify a new phase in U.S.-China economic relations, moving from a period of tension to a more strategic interaction [4] - Analysts suggest that the one-year suspension of tariffs aligns with the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, indicating a desire for a stable economic environment prior to the elections [4] Group 3 - The trade negotiations have highlighted vulnerabilities in the U.S. strategy, particularly in agriculture and rare earths, which are critical to the U.S. market's reliance on China [5] - China's import and export figures remain robust, with a total trade volume of 33.6 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a 4% year-on-year increase [5][6] - Despite external challenges, China's economy has shown resilience, achieving a 5.2% growth rate in the same period, supported by strong export performance to non-U.S. markets [6]

Core Insights - China's steel industry is experiencing increased export pressure and risks due to tightening global trade conditions [1][2] Group 1: Export and Import Data - In the first three quarters, China's steel exports reached 87.96 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.2% [1] - The average export price was $697 per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 9.5% [1] - The total export value amounted to $61.3 billion, a year-on-year decline of 1.2% [1] - Steel imports totaled 4.53 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6% [1] - The average import price was $1,692 per ton, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.1% [1] - The net steel export volume was 96.76 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.0% [1] Group 2: Export Characteristics and Challenges - Since the beginning of the year, China's steel exports have shown diversification in flow and variety [1] - Exports of hot-rolled and cold-rolled steel products have significantly decreased due to anti-dumping investigations [1] - The export volume of steel billets has tripled compared to the same period last year, although the export price has decreased [1] - Following the removal of additional tariffs in 2021, steel billet exports have consistently increased in volume but decreased in price [1] Group 3: Trade Barriers - The steel industry is facing heightened trade friction as international trade protectionism rises [2] - In 2024, China encountered 33 cases of trade remedy investigations against its steel products, with 25 cases occurring this year [2] - Various technical and non-tariff measures are contributing to increased trade barriers, amplifying export pressures and risks [2]

Core Insights - The APEC 32nd Informal Leaders' Meeting will be held in Gyeongju, South Korea from October 31 to November 1, focusing on multilateral cooperation amidst rising unilateralism and trade protectionism [1][2] - The theme "Building a Sustainable Tomorrow - Connectivity, Innovation, Prosperity" reflects APEC members' consensus on promoting sustainable, innovative, and cooperative development in the new era [1] Group 1 - APEC serves as an inclusive and influential economic cooperation mechanism, providing a non-confrontational platform for multilateral cooperation among its members [2] - Strengthening regional cooperation and connectivity is essential for maintaining open and stable economic growth in a turbulent world [1][2] - Technological innovation is identified as the main driver of economic growth for Asia-Pacific economies in the 21st century, with APEC members sharing common goals in digital economy, green technology, artificial intelligence, and renewable energy [1] Group 2 - Malaysia, as a core member of ASEAN, can leverage APEC to enhance supply chain resilience and trade facilitation, attracting high-end manufacturing and green investments [2] - China's proposals, such as the "Digital Silk Road" and "Smart Connectivity," aim to promote digital trade, cross-border e-commerce, and AI cooperation, sharing technological benefits with other Asia-Pacific countries [2] - China's open and win-win philosophy, green transformation practices, and digital cooperation ideas provide a reference for APEC's future agenda, promoting more inclusive, sustainable, and high-quality regional cooperation [2]

Core Points - The APEC 32nd Leaders' Informal Meeting was held in Gyeongju, South Korea, from October 31 to November 1, focusing on the theme "Building a Sustainable Tomorrow" [1] - APEC is a significant cooperation platform encompassing 21 economies along the Pacific Rim, promoting economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region through a unique operational model [3] - The meeting emphasized three priority areas: enhancing connectivity, promoting innovation, and achieving inclusive growth and prosperity [3][4] Group 1 - APEC's commitment to "open regionalism" has facilitated trade and investment liberalization, benefiting both member economies and external economies, thus enhancing the global multilateral trading system [3] - The meeting serves as a collective response to protectionist sentiments, reinforcing support for a rules-based multilateral trading system and providing a platform for major economies like China, the U.S., Japan, and South Korea to coordinate and manage disputes [4] - The "2040 APEC Putrajaya Vision" outlines a grand blueprint for the Asia-Pacific region, emphasizing openness, vitality, resilience, and peace, aligning with future development needs [4] Group 2 - The Asia-Pacific region accounts for one-third of the world's population, over 60% of the global economy, and nearly half of global trade, highlighting the importance of cooperation over confrontation [5] - The themes and discussions of the APEC meeting reflect the desire for connection and collaboration among economies in response to the challenges of decoupling and supply chain disruptions [5]

眼看千万吨大豆要烂在仓库，忍不了的美国农民苦劝特朗普，别再和中国对着干了。 美国大豆收获季结束，全美大豆丰收，可在中美贸易战冲击下，大豆滞销已不可避免，越来越多的豆农开始催促特朗普政府，尽快与中国达成一份可持续的 新大豆协议。 谁都清楚，中国曾是美国大豆最粗的 "大腿"。前些年中国每年买走的美国大豆能占其出口总量的一半以上，2024 年光大豆一项就给美国农民带来近 128 亿 美元的收入，相当于每两亩大豆地里就有一亩的收成是靠中国市场消化的。那会儿伊利诺伊州的农场主约翰・巴特曼还常跟人说，中国是最靠谱的农业合作 伙伴，订单稳、付款快，比跟其他国家打交道省心多了。可自从特朗普政府对华加征关税，这一切全变了。 中方不得不采取反制措施，对美国大豆加征了 23% 的关税，一下子就让美国大豆失去了价格优势。要知道巴西、阿根廷的大豆进入中国只需要交 3% 的关 税，这么一对比，美国大豆在市场上根本站不住脚。更要命的是，中国早就开始布局多元化采购，不再把鸡蛋放一个篮子里。2016 年的时候美国大豆还占 中国进口量的 40%，到 2024 年就跌到了 22.8%，2025 年更是惨，9 月份中国从美国进口的大豆直接归零，这是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The proposed "Ukraine Victory Fund" by Trump aims to provide military aid to Ukraine through a significant tariff increase on certain Chinese goods, specifically targeting non-essential industrial products, with an estimated annual revenue of approximately $48 billion for this fund [3][9][19]. Group 1: Tariff Plan - Trump plans to impose tariffs as high as 500% on specific Chinese goods, including electric vehicles and electronic components, which could generate around $48 billion annually for military support to Ukraine [3][9]. - The tariff plan is not aimed at all Chinese products but focuses on non-essential industrial goods, which raises concerns about its feasibility and potential economic impact [9][11]. - The proposed tariff rate of 500% far exceeds typical international trade norms, which usually range from 5% to 15%, raising questions about its practicality [14]. Group 2: Economic Implications - If implemented, the 500% tariff could significantly increase the prices of imported goods, potentially leading to a rise in domestic prices and affecting consumer demand [14][16]. - The U.S. has a high dependency on Chinese imports in sectors like electric vehicles, with 38% and 29% reliance on China for electric vehicles and electronic components, respectively [14]. - The U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) has indicated that such high tariffs could lead to a 1.8% increase in the domestic price index and may not reduce the trade deficit as intended [17]. Group 3: Aid to Ukraine - The "Ukraine Victory Fund" is expected to raise $48 billion annually, which would only cover about 61.5% of Ukraine's monthly military needs, highlighting a significant gap between projected funding and actual requirements [19][21]. - The fund's reliance on tariffs means that any decrease in imports could lead to reduced funding for Ukraine, complicating the aid process [21]. - The implementation of the tariff policy could take 6 to 8 months, which does not align with Ukraine's immediate military needs [21]. Group 4: International Reactions - The EU has reacted coolly to the proposed tariffs, emphasizing its independent trade policy and the potential negative impact on its economy [22]. - Key EU countries like Germany and France have expressed concerns about the economic burden that high tariffs would impose on their industries, particularly in the automotive and agricultural sectors [22][24]. - The proposed tariffs could provoke retaliatory measures from China, further escalating trade tensions and potentially harming U.S. agricultural and energy exports [24]. Group 5: Conclusion - The "500% tariff plan" appears more as a political gesture rather than a feasible policy, aimed at demonstrating U.S. support for Ukraine ahead of Trump's meeting with Zelensky [26]. - The plan faces significant economic, legal, and political hurdles that make its immediate implementation unlikely [26].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the price changes of various commodities on October 29, 2025, compared to October 28, 2025, including chemicals, agricultural products, and more. It also covers macro - economic news and provides trading strategies for different commodities and financial products based on their fundamentals and market trends [4]. - Macroeconomic news shows positive developments in China - ASEAN cooperation, potential progress in Sino - EU trade talks, and China's stance on financial opening - up and economic policies. The performance of the A - share market and international stock markets is also analyzed [7][8][20][21]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Commodity Price Changes - **Chemicals**: On October 29, 2025, among chemicals, glass had the highest increase rate of 1.348% (from 1,113.00 to 1,128.00), while crude oil had the largest decline rate of - 0.994% (from 462.70 to 458.10) [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Among agricultural products, soybean meal had the highest increase rate of 0.538% (from 2,975.00 to 2,991.00), and palm oil had the largest decline rate of - 1.496% (from 8,958.00 to 8,824.00) [4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic News - China and ASEAN signed the FTA 3.0 upgrade protocol, expanding cooperation in emerging fields [7]. - There will be a Sino - EU talk on rare earths, and China hopes for dialogue to solve trade differences [7]. - China is committed to financial opening - up, and the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy [7]. - The revised Network Security Law will take effect on January 1, 2026, and the Environmental Protection Tax Law will include volatile organic compounds in the tax scope [8]. - The number of overseas travelers for tax - free shopping and the tax - free amount in China have increased significantly this year [8]. - The 8th China International Import Expo will be held from November 5th to 10th, with an expanded scale [8]. - China's soybean area and output are expected to remain high, and the number of breeding sows has decreased [8]. - China's wholesale and retail industries have shown growth in the first three quarters [8]. - The 2025 Hurun Rich List was announced, with Zhong Shanshan becoming the richest man in China [9]. 3.3 Commodity Trading Strategies - **Agricultural Products** - **Peanuts**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 7700 - 7900, and it is recommended to wait and see [13]. - **Sugar**: Consider selling call options at high prices, with a support level at 5450 yuan/ton [13]. - **Corn**: Observe the support in the 2100 - 2120 range [14]. - **Pigs**: The near - term futures are expected to be strong, and the long - term futures will remain weak [14]. - **Eggs**: Short - sell on the futures and conduct inter - month reverse arbitrage [16]. - **Cotton**: Wait and see, and consider going long if it breaks through 13600 yuan/ton [16]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Urea**: The UR2601 contract is expected to operate in the 1580 - 1670 yuan/ton range [16]. - **Caustic Soda**: The 2601 contract is under pressure [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are expected to remain strong, with coking coal facing pressure around 1300 and coke around 1800 [16]. - **Industrial Metals** - **Copper and Aluminum**: Prices are expected to remain high, but beware of macro - risks [17]. - **Alumina**: The 2601 contract is operating at a low level [17]. - **Steel Products**: Steel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, with rebar facing pressure around 3200 and hot - rolled coils around 3400 [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: They will maintain a wide - range fluctuating follow - up trend, and the industrial rebound hedging idea remains unchanged [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Adopt a bullish strategy, with a support level at 80000 and a pressure level at 84000 [19]. - **Options and Finance** - **Stock Index Futures**: Trend investors can focus on inter - variety spread arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can consider buying straddles or wide straddles after the HO volatility decline [19]. - **Stock Index**: Although the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 4000 points, there is still a need for consolidation. Pay attention to the performance of the third - quarter reports of listed companies [20][21].

Group 1 - Canadian Prime Minister Carney plans to meet with Chinese leaders during the APEC summit to repair diplomatic relations and address trade disputes [1] - Carney has praised China as a country "led by engineers" and is looking to reset expectations for future relations, including the possibility of easing investment restrictions and negotiating a free trade agreement [1] - China is identified as Canada's second-largest trading partner and a significant global economic player, with no high-level contact between the two countries for seven years until Carney's recent meeting with the Chinese Premier [1] Group 2 - Professor Li Haidong suggests that Carney's statements reflect a pragmatic choice in response to internal and external challenges, emphasizing the need for Canada to change its previous ideologically biased policies towards China [2] - Canada is seeking to reduce its dependence on the U.S. amid rising trade protectionism, with recent U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods, including a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum, significantly impacting Canadian manufacturing [2]

Group 1 - Canadian Prime Minister Carney emphasizes the importance of strengthening relations with China, noting that China is Canada's second-largest trading partner and a significant global economic player [1] - Carney highlights the lack of high-level contact with China over the past seven years, indicating a potential for substantial progress moving forward [1] - The Canadian government plans to double exports to non-U.S. markets over the next decade, aiming for a value exceeding 300 billion CAD [2] Group 2 - U.S. President Trump announced the suspension of trade negotiations with Canada, citing dissatisfaction with an advertisement sponsored by the Ontario government [2] - The advertisement features former U.S. President Ronald Reagan's views on trade barriers, which Trump claims misrepresents Reagan's stance [2] - Ontario Premier Doug Ford defends the advertisement, stating its purpose is to inform Americans that protectionism is ineffective, and he will not apologize for it [3]

Core Points - Trump's visit to Malaysia initiated a significant shift in trade diplomacy within the Asia-Pacific region, with multiple trade agreements announced within hours of his arrival [1][3][17] - The agreements include a key mineral cooperation pact with Malaysia and Thailand, which ensures the export of critical minerals and rare earth elements to the U.S., supporting industries like renewable energy and semiconductors [5][6] - The U.S. maintains a 19% tariff rate on most exports from Malaysia, Thailand, and Cambodia, while a 20% rate applies to Vietnam, with potential for tariff reductions on specific products [6][8] Trade Agreements - Six trade agreements were signed with four countries, with a focus on critical minerals and broader trade frameworks with Cambodia and Thailand [3][6] - The U.S. aims to provide unprecedented market access for exporters in Vietnam, enhancing trade relations [6][8] Regional Dynamics - The U.S. is positioning itself as a steadfast partner to Southeast Asia, addressing concerns over high tariffs impacting the region [8][17] - The ASEAN summit also marked East Timor's official entry as the 11th member, expanding the geographical coverage of ASEAN and opening new trade and investment opportunities [12][14][15] Economic Context - The U.S. faces pressure from high tariffs, with an average effective tariff rate of 17.9%, the highest since 1934, prompting a search for new trade partnerships [8][17] - China's trade with ASEAN continues to grow, with a 9.6% increase in trade volume, highlighting the competitive landscape in the region [17]