Group 1 - The core issue is the increasing economic pressure on India due to the U.S. government's imposition of punitive tariffs on Indian goods, which has severely impacted India's export trade and manufacturing sector [1][3]. - The U.S. tariffs have led to a significant reduction in export orders from India, causing a decline in business confidence, particularly affecting small and medium-sized enterprises that are less resilient to such shocks [3][5]. - Modi's government faces a dilemma in balancing relations between the U.S. and China, as India's manufacturing heavily relies on Chinese raw materials while simultaneously trying to appease U.S. demands [5][9]. Group 2 - The U.S. is using diplomatic channels to pressure India, urging it to take sides in the geopolitical rivalry, which undermines India's strategic autonomy [5]. - India's attempts to deepen cooperation with the U.S. to reduce dependence on China have not been successful, leading to a worsening export situation and increased trade pressures from the U.S. [5][9]. - The structural economic challenges faced by India are exacerbated by the U.S. tariffs, which disrupt India's plans to enhance its supply chain through Chinese manufacturing [9].

美国H-1B签证新规惹争议，中国削减美债黄金储备成焦点 近期，美国总统特朗普签署一项备受瞩目的行政令，针对H-1B工作签证申请人祭出高昂的申请费用——每人每年高达10万美元，否则将不允许 入境。此举意味着H-1B签证的成本一夜之间飙升了20倍。据统计，目前在美国持有H-1B签证工作的60万外籍人士中，有7.02万为中国人。 消息传出后，微软、摩根大通、亚马逊等美国科技巨头迅速采取行动，连夜向旗下持H-1B签证的员工发出通知，要求他们尽量留在美国境内， 或尽快返回美国。这些企业深切担忧，一旦员工身处美国境外，将可能面临巨额的费用负担，使其重新入境美国变得困难重重。 H-1B签证本是为了满足美国企业在特定专业技术领域人才短缺而设立的，允许企业引进国内难以寻觅的专业外籍技术人员填补职位空缺。该签 证尤其受到美国科技企业的青睐，每年8.5万个的名额配额采用抽签制度进行分配。 从H-1B签证的国籍分布来看，印度是最大的受益国，占据了每年名额的七成以上。中国约占11.7%，主要集中在科研、金融以及高等教育等领 域。美国商务部长卢特尼克对此表示，企业应优先培训美国本土大学毕业生，而非引进外国人来"抢走"美国人的工作。 特朗 ...

记者丨张旭 编辑丨钟映佳 9月18日，商务部召开例行新闻发布会。商务部新闻发言人何亚东回应了关于Tiktok在美运 营、欧盟对中国电动汽车征收反补贴税等议题。 近日，美国总统特朗普称中美双方已达成一项协议，允许TikTok继续在美国运营。何亚东表 示，当地时间9月14日至15日，中美经贸团队在西班牙马德里举行会谈。双方以两国元首通话 重要共识为引领，就以合作方式妥善解决TikTok相关问题、减少投资障碍、促进有关经贸合作 等达成了基本框架共识。 何亚东还对欧盟对中国电动汽车征收反补贴税一事进行了回应。他表示， 中方希望欧方不将 关税武器化， 消除市场壁垒，鼓励公平竞争， 顺应产业合作大势，共同为产业发展创造公 平、非歧视、可预期的市场环境，为应对全球气候变化、实现绿色转型作出积极贡献。 何亚东表示，欧方不能一手高举气变大旗，一手又挥舞保护主义大棒。保护主义没有出路。欧 方仅因为中国电动车高性价比，就毫无根据地给中国车企贴上"补贴"标签，并以莫须有的"损 害威胁"名头滥用反补贴措施，实质是设置市场壁垒，干预自由竞争。实践证明，保护主义挡 不住市场的强大力量，更拦不住欧盟消费者的理性选择。 商务部新闻发言人何亚东 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points is seen as a preventive measure to support the economy, but it does not eliminate the risk of recession in the U.S. economy [5][9][10]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market shows signs of weakness, with only 73,000 jobs added in July 2025, below the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [11]. - In August 2025, non-farm employment increased by only 22,000, with the unemployment rate reaching 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years [11]. - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised employment data downward, indicating a reduction of 911,000 jobs, revealing a more fragile labor market than previously thought [11]. Manufacturing Sector - The New York Fed's manufacturing index fell to -8.7 in September 2025, significantly below the forecast of 5.0, indicating a downturn in the manufacturing sector [12]. Trade Policies - Trade protectionism, particularly the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, is negatively impacting the U.S. economy by increasing costs for consumers and businesses, leading to reduced investment and consumer spending [13][14]. - The tariffs are expected to result in significant job losses and income reductions for American households, with estimates suggesting a potential recession probability increase from 25% to 40% [14]. Market Reactions - Following the Fed's rate cut, various asset classes reacted with volatility, indicating a lack of confidence in the Fed's optimistic forecasts [9][10]. - The demand for safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries is expected to rise as investors seek refuge from potential economic downturns [17]. Long-term Implications - The U.S. government's rising debt burden, projected to exceed $37 trillion, poses a risk to the long-term stability of U.S. Treasuries, potentially diminishing their safe-haven status [18]. - The dollar may experience a short-term strengthening due to safe-haven flows, but long-term trends suggest a weakening of the dollar as global trust in U.S. fiscal management declines [19]. Summary of Asset Movements - In the event of a recession or heightened recession expectations, investors typically shift from risk assets to safe-haven assets, leading to a temporary increase in demand for U.S. Treasuries and the dollar, while long-term concerns about debt and creditworthiness may undermine their value [20].

Group 1 - The Chinese government hopes that the European side will not weaponize tariffs, eliminate market barriers, and encourage fair competition to create a predictable market environment for industrial development [1][2] - The announcement of a €20,000 small electric vehicle by Volkswagen aligns with market demand and consumer expectations for diverse, advanced, and affordable products [1] - Chinese electric vehicles are driving the electrification and intelligent transformation of the industry, demonstrating the capability of European automakers to adapt to market competition [1][2] Group 2 - The Chinese government criticizes the European side for using protectionist measures while advocating for climate change, stating that protectionism does not provide a solution [2] - Cooperation is emphasized as the correct approach, with a willingness to promote collaboration in the electric vehicle sector, highlighting partnerships between European and Chinese companies [2][3] - The Chinese government has been cautious in using trade remedy measures, contrasting with the European Union's initiation of multiple investigations against Chinese exports [3]

Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce calls for the EU to abandon protectionism and welcomes European companies' products in the Chinese market, emphasizing the importance of fair competition and collaboration in the electric vehicle sector [1][2][3] - The introduction of a €20,000 small electric vehicle by Volkswagen aligns with market demands, and the Chinese electric vehicle industry is driving the transformation towards electrification and intelligence, showcasing its competitive edge [2][3] - The Ministry highlights that technological innovation and full industry chain cooperation are fundamental to the high cost-performance ratio of Chinese electric vehicles, which is a key reason for their popularity among consumers [2][3] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce notes that the EU has initiated seven original investigations against China this year, contrasting with China's restrained use of trade remedy measures, having only initiated three cases [4][5] - The EU's investigation into electric vehicle subsidies is criticized as being initiated without any domestic industry application, and China has sought resolution through the WTO dispute settlement mechanism [5] - The Ministry expresses a commitment to dialogue and cooperation, urging the EU to recognize industry voices and work towards creating an open and stable market environment for mutual development [6]

据新华社，2025中韩工商领导人经济会议17日至18日在韩国首尔举行，两国企业界代表围绕新能源、新 材料、人工智能、机器人等领域进行深度探讨。本次会议由韩国经营者总协会会长、韩国希杰集团董事 长孙京植与中国银行行长张辉共同担任主席。新希望集团、敬业集团、京东方科技集团等中方企业代表 及三星电子、LG化学等韩国主要大型企业负责人参会，中国驻韩国大使戴兵、韩国产业通商资源部通 商次官补朴钟元等出席会议。张辉说，此次中国科技制造、金融、物流等领域的企业家代表来韩参会， 会议旨在进一步拓宽中韩经贸合作，为两国企业携手共创美好未来搭建更广阔的平台。孙京植表示，韩 中企业家们正面临贸易保护主义等严峻问题，韩中两国应合力构建稳定、可预期的企业环境。特别是在 人工智能、机器人等尖端技术创新与新兴产业培育方面，两国企业更应加强合作。希望双方通过项目与 技术合作，实现供应链稳定与开拓新市场，共同创造未来增长动力。戴兵介绍，中韩建交33年来，两国 经贸合作取得瞩目成就。中韩产供链深度互嵌，已形成"你中有我，我中有你"的发展格局。互利共赢不 仅给两国人民带来巨大福祉，也为地区和平稳定繁荣作出重要贡献。本次会议由中国国际跨国公司促进 ...

国际局势风云变幻，9月，全球各大权威媒体和官方平台陆续发布了一连串影响全球格局的重磅消息。美联储人事变动、英美高层互动，以及美军在拉美的 军事行动，每一件都牵动着世界神经。 根据美国皮尤研究中心和路透社等权威机构发布的最新数据，当前全球地缘政治紧张指数已升至近十年来高位。而在美联储独立性、欧美同盟关系、拉美安 全局势等关键议题上，各方分歧加剧。 9月17日，美国国会参议院以48票赞成、47票反对的微弱优势，通过了斯蒂芬·米兰出任美联储理事的提名。白宫官网随即发布公告，确认总统已签署米兰的 任命文件，并再度重申"美联储必须维持独立运作"。值得注意的是，这场投票的结果并非意料之中——仅一票之差反映出美国两党在货币政策和经济治理上 的剧烈对立。 据《华尔街日报》分析，米兰的顺利上任将成为美国历史上首次由白宫经济顾问委员会主席兼任美联储理事，且以"无薪休假"形式保留原职。多位参议员在 投票后公开表达担忧，认为美联储的独立性受到前所未有的挑战。 英美分歧再现，伦敦抗议成焦点 就在美联储理事任命尘埃落定的同一天，白宫发布消息，总统携第一夫人应英国方面邀请，展开为期两天的正式国事访问。根据英国广播公司（BBC）与 《金融时 ...

近日，大众集团宣布将推出2万欧元的小型电动汽车。2025年慕尼黑车展上，宝马、奔驰、雷诺等多家 欧盟车企也发布了新能源战略和概念车。 何亚东称，首先，中方祝贺欧盟车企即将推出2万欧元低价小型电动车，这符合市场的选择和消费者的 期盼。欧盟消费者需要种类更多样、性能更先进、价格更优惠的产品。中国电动汽车推动了行业电动 化、智能化转型，欧盟车企完全有能力适应市场竞争，参与行业变革。 其次，科技创新、全产业链合作带来的超高性价比，正是推动电动汽车行业发展的底层逻辑。同时，也 是中国电动汽车广受消费者欢迎的根本原因，更是助推包括欧盟在内全球应对气候变化的动力。 再次，欧方不能一手高举气变大旗，一手又挥舞保护主义大棒。保护主义没有出路。欧方仅因为中国电 动车高性价比，就毫无根据地给中国车企贴上"补贴"标签，并以莫须有的"损害威胁"名头滥用反补贴措 施，实质是设置市场壁垒，干预自由竞争。实践证明，保护主义挡不住市场的强大力量，更拦不住欧盟 消费者的理性选择。 最后，何亚东称："合作才是正道，我们欢迎欧企产品进入中国市场，更愿意推动电动车领域合作。大 众和小鹏，斯特兰蒂斯和零跑等合作，正在激发欧盟市场的创新活力，中国电池也为 ...

Group 1: TikTok and US-China Relations - The Chinese government opposes the politicization and weaponization of technology and trade issues, emphasizing that it will not sacrifice principles, corporate interests, or international fairness for any agreement [1][10] - China supports equal business negotiations for companies and will approve technology exports and intellectual property rights related to TikTok according to the law [1][10] - The Chinese government hopes the US will provide an open, fair, and non-discriminatory business environment for Chinese companies, including TikTok, to operate in the US [1][10] Group 2: Trade Measures and International Cooperation - The 138th Canton Fair will implement broader and more substantial support measures for foreign trade enterprises, including a reduction in booth fees for all participating companies [2] - China has maintained a cautious approach to trade remedy measures, contrasting with the EU's numerous investigations against Chinese exports [3][4] - The EU's protectionist measures against Chinese electric vehicles are criticized as unjustified, and China advocates for cooperation and fair competition in the electric vehicle sector [6][7] Group 3: Global Fisheries and WTO Agreements - The WTO's Fisheries Subsidies Agreement, effective from September 15, aims to promote sustainable development in global fisheries and enhance transparency in subsidy policies [8][9] - China is committed to fulfilling its obligations under the agreement and actively participating in global fisheries governance [9]