Group 1 - The report indicates that the overall asset allocation strategy has experienced fluctuations due to domestic equity asset volatility, with various models recording different degrees of decline [1][4][7] - The performance of major asset classes from September 15 to September 19, 2025, shows that the S&P 500, Hang Seng Index, and other indices recorded gains, while convertible bonds and gold experienced declines [7][10] - The domestic asset BL model 1 and model 2 both reported a weekly return of -0.04%, while the global asset BL models had slightly better performance with a return of -0.01% for model 1 and -0.03% for model 2 [15][17] Group 2 - The Black-Litterman (BL) model is highlighted as an improvement over traditional mean-variance models, integrating subjective views with quantitative models to optimize asset allocation [12][13] - The domestic asset risk parity model achieved a return of -0.02% for the week, while the global asset risk parity model recorded a positive return of 0.05% [21][22] - The macro factor-based asset allocation strategy reported a weekly return of -0.1%, with a year-to-date return of 3.25%, indicating its performance amidst changing economic conditions [27][28]

Group 1 - The essence of family office mission is to maintain and enhance long-term purchasing power, focusing on the ability to exchange money for more goods and services in the future [3][28][29] - Risk management emphasizes understanding and prevention rather than mere control, preparing for uncertainties with contingency plans [4][3] - The investment strategy is based on macroeconomic cycles, with a focus on maintaining a stable annual return of over ten percent during economic adjustments [2][10] Group 2 - The company has transitioned from being a "follow-on investor" to an "asset creator," recognizing the need for direct involvement in market understanding and asset management [9][10] - Investment decisions are guided by a combination of macroeconomic conditions and specific industry dynamics, with a focus on sectors in growth phases [14][20] - The investment philosophy includes a "dynamic monopoly dividend portfolio," aiming for long-term stability and risk reduction through diversified asset allocation [24] Group 3 - The company has identified high-value opportunities in the bond market, particularly in local government bonds, which were mispriced due to market conditions [20][21] - The approach to overseas asset allocation is primarily focused on the U.S. market, with a strategic shift towards undervalued Chinese assets [25][26] - The family office industry is characterized by a need for improved professional investment research and decision-making capabilities, particularly in distinguishing between quality general partners [32][34] Group 4 - The family office's mission encompasses both wealth preservation and value creation, with a focus on maintaining purchasing power over time [28][29] - The industry is experiencing a shift towards secondary market investments as many family offices reassess the liquidity and transparency of equity investments [33][34] - Future opportunities in wealth management are driven by the substantial demand for trustworthy asset management, particularly in a post-cycle economic environment [34]

Core Viewpoint - The China public fund industry is undergoing a historic transformation driven by the "New Era, New Fund, New Value" theme, marking a significant shift towards high-quality development and a "value revolution" in the sector [2][9]. Group 1: Operational Perspective - The CSRC's action plan targets the "profit-making" model of the public fund industry, emphasizing a shift to a performance-based management fee structure that ties fund company profits to investor returns [3]. - The traditional commission-based sales model is under pressure, prompting sales institutions to pivot towards value-added services like investment advisory and asset allocation [3]. - The adoption of technology and data analytics is expected to reduce costs and drive competition, leading to a "data and AI-driven" phase in the industry [3]. Group 2: Functional Perspective - The regulatory framework is being restructured to focus on long-term performance, with a significant increase in the weight of three-year returns in assessments, discouraging short-term speculation [4]. - Enhanced performance benchmarks will enforce stricter adherence to investment styles, pushing active equity funds to compete directly with index-enhanced products [4]. - New metrics for assessing investor returns will shift the focus from marketing to client experience, fostering a culture of "responsible investing" [4]. Group 3: Development Perspective - The industry is seeing an expansion of equity funds, with rapid registration processes for ETFs and optimized approval for fixed-income products, creating a positive feedback loop for innovation and capital inflow [5]. - The introduction of derivative tools will allow public funds to engage in more sophisticated strategies, potentially leading to a "hedge fund-like" product offering [6]. - The integration of research platforms and AI technology is expected to shift the focus from individual star managers to systematic investment capabilities [6]. Group 4: Investor Perspective - A new compensation structure will hold fund managers accountable for underperformance, fostering a shared interest between investors and fund managers [7]. - Enhanced transparency measures will provide investors with clearer insights into fund performance, shifting decision-making from rankings to actual investor experiences [7]. - The rise of investment advisory services will transform investors from mere purchasers to active asset allocators, incentivizing long-term holding behaviors [7]. Group 5: Industry Restructuring Perspective - The industry is expected to experience structural differentiation, with larger firms leveraging scale while smaller firms seek niche opportunities, leading to a dual structure of "systemically important firms" and "boutique institutions" [8]. - Mergers and acquisitions are likely to become commonplace as firms lacking core competencies face consolidation, with a shift in valuation logic from "license premium" to "research capability premium" [8]. - The easing of regulations around derivatives and cross-border investments will expose local firms to global asset management giants, making international capabilities a key growth driver [8]. Conclusion - The ongoing reforms in the public fund industry represent a deepening of structural changes in financial supply, with long-term implications for sustainability and investor trust [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the asset allocation strategy from a macroeconomic perspective, highlighting the trend of currency depreciation and its impact on capital flows and asset prices since 2022, with a recent shift towards currency appreciation and potential foreign capital inflow into Chinese bonds [1][2][3] Group 1: Currency Trends and Capital Flows - Since early 2022, there has been a trend of currency depreciation leading to capital outflows from developing countries to developed ones, primarily due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes [1][2] - In July 2023, a shift occurred with the onset of the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle and stabilization of the domestic economy, resulting in a trend of currency appreciation in China [2][3] Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Bonds - As the Chinese currency transitions from depreciation to appreciation, foreign capital is expected to flow into Chinese bonds, which are becoming increasingly attractive due to their relative stability and the country's fiscal discipline [2][3] - The global debt cycle and rising debt costs in other countries make Chinese government bonds a preferred asset for global capital seeking stability and potential appreciation [3][4] Group 3: Equity Market Outlook - The equity market is anticipated to experience a slow bull market, contrasting with previous rapid bull markets, leading to a more cautious approach to asset allocation [4] - In a slow bull market, investors are likely to rebalance their portfolios between equities and bonds, especially during periods of rapid equity price increases or corrections [4] Group 4: Specific Investment Products - The Ten-Year Government Bond ETF (511260) is highlighted as a valuable investment option, being the only product tracking the Shanghai Stock Exchange's ten-year government bond index, offering transparency and favorable trading conditions [5]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has reached new historical highs, with COMEX gold futures surpassing $3,800 and London gold exceeding $3,790, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 40% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The surge in gold prices has led to a renewed interest in gold-related financial products, with nearly 50 new products launched this year, and about 20% of these being issued in the second half of the year [1]. - Structured financial products linked to gold have become mainstream, utilizing a "fixed income + derivatives" model to enhance returns while keeping costs low [1][2]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - The launch of benchmark products, such as the "Private Banking Selected Fortune Gold Shark Fin Fixed Income Product," indicates a growing market for structured financial products linked to gold [2]. - Major financial institutions, including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, have optimistic forecasts for gold prices, predicting $3,800 per ounce by Q4 2025 and potentially nearing $5,000 under extreme scenarios [2]. Group 3: Risk Awareness - Despite the bullish sentiment, there are risks associated with gold investments, including historical price corrections and fraudulent schemes exploiting the gold concept [3]. - Investors are advised to maintain a balanced approach, with recommended gold allocation in portfolios ranging from 5% to 15%, and to understand the terms of structured products to avoid pitfalls [3][4].

Group 1 - The article presents a series of reports focused on asset allocation strategies under various economic conditions, emphasizing the importance of macroeconomic factors in investment decisions [2][3] - It outlines multiple thematic reports, including those on industry rotation strategies, risk premium perspectives, and macroeconomic indicators, which are crucial for optimizing asset allocation [2][3] - The reports cover a wide range of topics, such as the impact of economic cycles on asset pricing, the effectiveness of Smart Beta strategies, and the analysis of historical patterns in interest rate cycles [2][3] Group 2 - The article highlights the significance of industry rotation strategies, detailing methods for selecting industries based on economic cycles, valuation reversals, and price momentum [3] - It discusses the application of quantitative models in industry configuration, focusing on factors like profitability and momentum as key determinants for successful industry selection [3] - The reports also explore the relationship between macroeconomic trends and industry performance, providing insights into how to capitalize on cyclical opportunities within various sectors [3]

李凤文 国际金价再度上演"高光时刻"。9月23日，COMEX黄金期货价格首次突破3800美元关口，盘中最高触及 3824.6美元/盎司，伦敦金同步突破3790美元/盎司，双双创下历史新高。金价年内超40%的涨幅，让 含"金"类理财产品重新成为市场关注的焦点，投资者参与热情持续升温。 但热度之下更需警惕风险。黄金并非稳赚不赔的"神话"，2000年以来金价曾出现3次创新高后回撤，最 大回撤幅度达44%。更值得警惕的是，部分机构借黄金概念设局，如永坤黄金以"存金生息""保本年化 5%—9%"为噱头，通过资金池模式运作，最终导致超3亿元资金无法兑付。另有案例以黄金延期交付为 幌子，7年诈骗1600余人、涉案金额超4亿元。 值得一提的是，既然是理财，就要承担相应的风险。对投资者而言，理性参与需做好三重功课。一是明 确配置比例，黄金的核心价值在于分散风险，世界黄金协会建议组合中配置5%—10%，达利欧则认为 谨慎比例可至10%—15%，切忌重仓押注。二是读懂产品逻辑，尤其需要了解结构性产品条款的相关内 容，关注障碍价格设置、衍生品条款及封闭期等关键信息，避开"保本高息"陷阱。三是坚持量力而行， 优先选择持牌金融机构发行的 ...

新华财经北京9月25日电（王菁）债市周四（9月25日）延续弱势，银行间现券收益率上行1-2BPs，国债 期货多数收跌，超长端品种尾盘稍有平复；MLF增量续做流动性改善有限，供给尚可回购利率未脱高 位，公开市场单日净回笼35亿元，短端及跨月资金利率仍上行。 【资金面】 公开市场方面，央行公告称，9月25日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了4835亿元7天期逆回购操作，操 作利率1.40%，投标量4835亿元，中标量4835亿元。数据显示，当日4870亿元逆回购到期，据此计算， 单日净回笼35亿元。 央行连续七个月加量续做MLF。央行9月24日发布公告称，将在25日以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位 中标方式开展6000亿元中期借贷便利（MLF）操作，期限为1年期。鉴于9月有3000亿元MLF到期，本 月央行MLF净投放将达到3000亿元，为连续第7个月对MLF加量续作。综合来看，MLF与买断式逆回购 两项政策工具在9月合计释放中期流动性6000亿元，与8月净投放规模持平，继续展现央行适度宽松的货 币政策取向。 机构认为，MLF续做对债市情绪安抚有限，而公开市场则继续净回笼，季末资金面仍承压不减，现券 期货整体偏弱。午后 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 作者： 极简投资人 来源：雪球 一 、 我们都是投资中的傻瓜 投资是一个全世界的人都不得不参与的比赛 ， 但是这个比赛很残酷 ， 只有极少的人能够实实在在赚到钱 。 有一句话比较有意思 ， 如果你在牌桌上玩了一会 ， 没有看出来谁是傻瓜 ， 那么你就是那个傻瓜 。 对于大多数人而言 ， 我们都是傻瓜 。 如果你通过预测市场涨跌来进行投资 ， 那你就是在和世界范围内最聪明 、 最有耐心 、 资金最雄厚的人来对弈 ， 他们无论为在能力 ， 经验 ， 资源 ， 精力方面完全碾压你 ， 想从他们手中赚绝对收益或者超过收益是不可能的事情 。 想要投资赚钱 ， 必须要承认自己的弱小 ， 才能有所敬畏 ， 有所不为 。 二 、 能立于不败之地的资产配置方案 那么 ， 对于个人投资者 ， 想玩这个游戏还能立于不败之地吗 ， 达利欧给出的答案是可以 ， 就是全天候配置 。 每类资产长期看都是能挣到钱的 ， 但是中间的波动和回撤太大 ， 以至于让很多人拿不住 ， 赚不到钱 。 每种资产虽然波动大 ， 但是都会适应 某种市场环境 。 | | 增长 | 通胀 | | --- | --- | --- ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of having a personal investment system to navigate market fluctuations and make informed decisions, rather than relying on external advice or luck [6][10][14]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Warren Buffett began reducing his holdings in Apple from Q4 2023, while George Soros increased his investment in the same stock during Q2 and Q3 of 2024, showcasing contrasting investment strategies [4][5]. - The differing decisions of Buffett and Soros stem from their unique investment philosophies: Buffett focuses on value investing and long-term holding, while Soros capitalizes on market momentum and the reflexivity principle [6][7][8]. Group 2: Importance of a Personal Investment System - A user’s experience illustrates the pitfalls of not having a personal investment system, as they missed out on gains during a bull market due to a lack of confidence and understanding of their investment decisions [10][12][14]. - Successful investors maintain a consistent investment system that aligns with their personal values and risk tolerance, which is crucial for long-term success [14]. Group 3: Asset Allocation as an Investment System - The article advocates for asset allocation as the most suitable investment system for ordinary investors, emphasizing the need for understanding the underlying investment philosophy and decision-making process [15][16]. - The "three-part method" of asset allocation is introduced, which includes determining what to buy, how much to invest based on risk tolerance, and when to buy and sell [17][18][20]. Group 4: Practical Application of Asset Allocation - The three-part method encourages diversification across various asset classes to mitigate risks and enhance overall returns, with a focus on long-term investment rather than timing the market [17][20]. - The method also includes a rebalancing feature, allowing investors to adjust their portfolio based on performance, which promotes disciplined investment practices [21].