" 新浪财经 2025 年会暨第 18 届金麒麟论坛"于2026年1月15日在北京举办，本次会议的 主题是"十五五开局，经济新启航——重塑增长范式，共创未来繁荣"。 中国人民大学原副 校长、国家金融研究院院长、国家一级教授吴晓求出席并演讲。 以下为演讲实录： 我讲讲资本市场。关于经济、医疗、财政等等，前面几位专家都讲得非常清楚、非常好。 资本市场在2026年向好的趋势应该不会有变化。虽然昨天中午三个交易所的融资杠杆从80%提 到100%，给市场一个信号：我们得悠着点，慢慢来，中国市场成长时间还长，不能着急。这里 需要理解，为什么从2024年9月24号以来中国资本市场有很好发展，有几个原因： 我们在这样条件下，要转变观念，看到市场成长前景。实际上市场不仅仅是国民经济晴雨表， 更重要还是经济和产业转型的重要推动者，要看到它有双重作用。传统晴雨表只是一个反映， 实际上资本市场发展可以推动中国经济结构转型和产业升级迭代，要看到后面作用，不要简单 步入泡沫论阶段。中国资本市场成长有它成长逻辑，既有改革逻辑，也有产业结构转型逻辑。 所以，在这种条件下，它未来成长可期。中间当然有波动，市场都在波动中前行，难以想象市 场有一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The forum emphasizes the need for reform and development in China's capital market, particularly addressing issues like major shareholder reductions and the importance of legal frameworks to prevent market risks [1][5]. Group 1: Major Shareholder Reduction - The discussion highlights the need to critically assess whether major shareholder reductions are a problem, suggesting that market stagnation cannot be solely attributed to this issue [3][7]. - Reforms initiated during the split share structure reform and further regulations in 2024 have clarified the conditions under which major shareholders can reduce their holdings, transitioning from "necessary conditions" to "sufficient conditions" [3][7]. - Despite significant reductions by major shareholders, the market continues to grow, indicating that other factors are at play [3][7]. Group 2: Market Reform and Growth - The speaker stresses that the most critical aspect of the Chinese market is reform, particularly enhancing the asset side to boost growth and attract continuous capital inflow [3][7]. - There are many misconceptions in the market, and addressing these through reform is essential for sustainable growth [3][7]. Group 3: Challenges for Small Investors - In the AI era, small investors in China face structural challenges, with some reports indicating that investors have not made profits even at market levels around 4100 points, suggesting a lack of independent investment capability [3][7]. - The availability of diverse investment tools, such as ETFs, is highlighted as a beneficial option for investors, often outperforming individual investors [3][7]. Group 4: Market Safety and Legal Framework - The phenomenon of "hidden risks" in the capital market is noted, where many listed companies may have motives to conceal risks, and intermediaries may assist in this behavior [4][8]. - The current priority is to implement legal measures to deter the motives and actions that lead to these hidden risks, marking a significant area for institutional reform [4][8].

Core Viewpoint - The forum emphasizes the need for reform and development in China's economy, particularly in the context of the upcoming 2026 year, focusing on reshaping growth paradigms and creating future prosperity [1][5] Group 1: Reform and Development - Wu Xiaoqiu highlights the importance of addressing the issue of major shareholder reductions, suggesting that it should not be simplistically linked to market stagnation [3][7] - He notes that the split share structure reform has already addressed related issues, and in 2024, specific regulations were established regarding major shareholder reductions, increasing the criteria from "necessary conditions" to "sufficient conditions" [3][7] - Despite a significant amount of major shareholder reductions during this period, the market continues to grow, indicating resilience [3][7] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Wu Xiaoqiu points out that many retail investors in China face structural challenges, particularly in the context of the AI era, with some investors reportedly not making profits even at the 4100-point level [3][7] - He advocates for the use of diverse investment tools, particularly ETFs, which tend to outperform many individual investors [3][7] - The notion of "making everyone profitable" is viewed as a slogan rather than a practical reality, with a focus on rational investment strategies [3][7] Group 3: Market Safety and Regulation - Wu Xiaoqiu raises concerns about the prevalence of "hidden risks" in China's capital market, where many listed companies may have motives and behaviors that contribute to these risks, with intermediaries also playing a role [4][8] - He emphasizes the need for legal measures to deter the motives behind these hidden risks and to hold accountable those who assist in perpetuating them, marking this as a critical area for institutional reform [4][8]

Core Viewpoint - The forum emphasizes the need for reform and development in China's economy, particularly in the context of the upcoming 2026 challenges and opportunities [1][5]. Group 1: Reform and Development - Wu Xiaoqiu highlights the importance of addressing the issue of major shareholder reductions, suggesting that it should not be simplistically linked to market stagnation [3][7]. - The reforms initiated during the split share structure reform and the specific regulations established in 2024 regarding major shareholder reductions are aimed at enhancing market growth [3][7]. - The focus should be on reforming the asset side to boost growth potential and attract continuous capital inflow [3][7]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - In the AI era, structural challenges are faced by small investors in China, with some still not making profits at the 4100-point mark, indicating a lack of independent investment capability [3][7]. - The creation of diverse assets and tools, particularly ETFs, is presented as a favorable option for investors, often outperforming individual investors [3][7]. - The notion of "making everyone profitable" is viewed as a slogan rather than a practical reality, with a more realistic approach being the investment in ETFs to increase the number of profitable investors [3][7]. Group 3: Market Safety and Regulation - The phenomenon of "hidden risks" in China's capital market is serious, with many listed companies having motives and behaviors that contribute to this issue, often aided by intermediary institutions [4][8]. - Ensuring market safety requires legal measures to deter the motives and actions that lead to "hidden risks," marking a critical area for institutional reform [4][8].

专题：新浪财经2025年会暨第18届金麒麟论坛 "新浪财经2025年会暨第18届金麒麟论坛"于2026年1月15日在北京举办，主题是"十五五开局，经济新启 航——重塑增长范式，共创未来繁荣"。中国人民大学原副校长、国家金融研究院院长、国家一级教授 吴晓求出席并演讲。 以下为演讲实录： 感谢邀请！ 我讲讲资本市场。关于经济、医疗、财政等等，前面几位专家都讲得非常清楚、非常好。 资本市场在2026年向好的趋势应该不会有变化。虽然昨天中午三个交易所的融资杠杆从80%提到 100%，给市场一个信号：我们得悠着点，慢慢来，中国市场成长时间还长，不能着急。这里需要理 解，为什么从2024年9月24号以来中国资本市场有很好发展，有几个原因： 我们在这样条件下，要转变观念，看到市场成长前景。实际上市场不仅仅是国民经济晴雨表，更重要还 是经济和产业转型的重要推动者，要看到它有双重作用。传统晴雨表只是一个反映，实际上资本市场发 展可以推动中国经济结构转型和产业升级迭代，要看到后面作用，不要简单步入泡沫论阶段。中国资本 市场成长有它成长逻辑，既有改革逻辑，也有产业结构转型逻辑。所以，在这种条件下，它未来成长可 期。中间当然有波动， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The capital market tightened slightly this week, with the weighted average interest rate of DR001 rising to around 1.39%. The central bank's open - market operations had a total of 13,236 billion yuan in reverse repurchase maturities this week. [4] - The three - market trading volume in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing reached 39,872 billion yuan, a significant increase of 2,881 billion yuan from the previous day, hitting a new record high. Industry sectors showed more gains than losses. [6] - On January 19, the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges will increase the margin ratio for margin trading to curb excessive speculation. In the short term, the stock index is expected to continue rising after shock adjustment. In 2026, multiple positive factors such as macro - policy support, inflation recovery, low - interest environment, technological progress, and capital - market reform are expected to support the A - share market. It is recommended that investors hold long positions for the long - term. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Money Market - **Interest Rate Changes**: DRO01 closed at 1.39% with a 0.07bp increase; DR007 at 1.57% with a 1.94bp increase; GC001 at 1.52% with a 5.00bp increase; GC007 at 1.58% with a 1.50bp increase; SHBOR 3M at 1.60% with no change; LPR 5 - year at 3.50% with no change; 1 - year treasury bond at 1.27% with a 0.77bp increase; 5 - year treasury bond at 1.63% with a - 0.75bp decrease; 10 - year treasury bond at 1.85% with a - 0.74bp decrease; 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.18% with a - 1.00bp decrease. [4] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 240.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on the previous day, with the same bid, winning, and operation rate of 1.40%, achieving a net injection of 212.2 billion yuan. [4] 3.2 Stock Market - **Stock Index Performance**: The CSI 300 fell 0.4% to 4741.9; the SSE 50 fell 0.67% to 3112.1; the CSI 500 rose 1.04% to 8227.7; the CSI 1000 rose 0.66% to 8257.2. [6] - **Futures Contracts**: For futures contracts like IF, IH, IC, and IM, there were changes in both prices and trading volumes. For example, IF's trading volume increased by 20.6%, and its holding volume increased by 4.0%. [6] - **Industry Performance**: Internet services, software development, cultural media, communication equipment, mining, and precious metals sectors led the gains, while energy metals, insurance, banking, and airport sectors led the losses. [6] 3.3 Futures Market - **Futures Ascending/Descending Water Situation**: The ascending/descending water rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts in different periods (current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter) are presented, such as IF's current - month contract with an ascending water rate of 16.67%. [8]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the need for the securities industry to enhance its service quality to better support the real economy, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" which aims to improve the adaptability and inclusiveness of the capital market [13][14] - The report highlights the importance of policy-driven reforms in the capital market, focusing on supporting technological innovation, meeting diverse investor needs, and facilitating high-level institutional openness [16][15] - The securities industry is expected to benefit from ongoing capital market reforms, with a shift from "incremental expansion" to "stock optimization," creating significant opportunities for securities firms [4][3] Group 2 - The report identifies a major shift towards long-term investment systems, with a notable increase in equity investments driven by the transfer of household wealth towards equity assets [24][25] - In 2025, the issuance of public funds reached 1,553, with equity funds seeing explosive growth, indicating a strong demand for equity investment products [25][26] - The report notes that the asset management sector is experiencing a transition towards active management, with a significant increase in the scale of asset management by securities firms [29][30] Group 3 - The report discusses the explosive growth of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the capital market, with a notable increase in the number of disclosed M&A transactions in 2025 [37][38] - It highlights the diversification of transaction mechanisms and payment methods in M&A, indicating a more innovative and efficient market environment [38][39] - The report emphasizes that leading securities firms are leveraging their full industry chain capabilities to dominate complex transactions, particularly in high-growth sectors like semiconductors and renewable energy [38][39] Group 4 - The report outlines the acceleration of internationalization in the securities industry, driven by policy support for cross-border business development and the expansion of overseas operations [41][42] - It notes that securities firms are increasingly focusing on serving domestic enterprises' overseas financing needs and facilitating international asset allocation for domestic clients [42][43] - The report indicates that both large and small securities firms are adopting differentiated strategies in their international business development, with a focus on specific regional markets [43][44] Group 5 - The report highlights a trend towards differentiation in business models among securities firms, moving from scale-driven strategies to quality-driven approaches [44][45] - It notes that while larger firms maintain a strong market position, smaller firms exhibit greater elasticity in performance during market fluctuations [44][45] - The report emphasizes the need for securities firms to enhance their operational efficiency and adapt to a low-interest-rate environment by improving their fee structures and service offerings [45][46]

Core Viewpoint - The securities industry is closely linked to market performance and shows strong left-side characteristics, with valuation levels highly correlated to the overall industry ROE. The macroeconomic development is entering a new cycle, and the 20th National Congress has outlined comprehensive reform measures, indicating that the capital market will play a significant role in supporting high-quality economic development in the new development cycle [1]. Group 1: New Requirements and Directions - The 20th National Congress emphasizes the need for a more inclusive and adaptable capital market system, focusing on three main areas: supporting technological innovation, meeting diverse investor wealth management needs, and facilitating high-level institutional openness [2]. - The "1+N" policy framework will be implemented by 2025, aiming to enhance the capital market's investment and financing coordination [2]. Group 2: New Opportunities for Securities Companies - There is a growing demand for wealth management as residents shift their wealth towards equity investments, with public fund issuance reaching a three-year high and equity funds accounting for over 50% of new issuances [3]. - The scale of mergers and acquisitions is expected to grow significantly due to policy drivers, with leading securities firms leveraging their full industry chain capabilities to manage complex transactions [3]. - The acceleration of internationalization presents new opportunities for securities firms, as they obtain investment banking licenses in various markets to serve both domestic and international clients [3]. Group 3: Upgrading Business Models - Different securities firms are evolving from homogeneous business models to more differentiated strategies, focusing on operational quality rather than just asset scale [4]. - The competitive landscape shows that while leading firms continue to strengthen, smaller firms exhibit greater elasticity, with revenue concentration increasing but profit concentration decreasing among the top firms [4]. - Securities companies are transitioning to integrated client service models, enhancing their offerings across various financial services and focusing on lifecycle services [4]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The market is entering a phase where policies aimed at enhancing capital market services for technology companies are being implemented, which will support the development of light asset businesses for securities firms [5]. - The restructuring of supply sides through mergers and acquisitions is expected to continue, leading to increased concentration and the emergence of internationally competitive investment banks [5]. - Some leading firms are anticipated to expand their business and ROE growth through both organic and external growth strategies, with a focus on high-quality development in the capital market [6].

Group 1: Grid Trading Strategy Overview - The essence of "grid trading" is a high buy low sell strategy, which does not predict market trends but utilizes natural price fluctuations within a certain range to generate profits, suitable for frequently fluctuating markets [4][13] - Characteristics of suitable grid trading targets include: selecting on-market targets, stable long-term trends, low trading costs, good liquidity, and high volatility. Equity ETFs are considered relatively suitable for grid trading [4][13] Group 2: ETF Grid Strategy Target Analysis - **Hang Seng Medicine ETF (159892.SZ)**: Benefiting from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, which improves the financing environment for innovative drugs. China's innovative drugs are accelerating their globalization, becoming a core driver for commercialization. As of January 4, 2026, China's new drug pipeline accounts for about 30% of the global total, ranking second worldwide. In 2025, 76 innovative drugs were approved for marketing in China, with domestic innovative drugs accounting for 80.85% of chemical drugs and 91.30% of biological products [4][14] - **Brokerage ETF (159842.SZ)**: High market activity catalyzes the release of brokerage performance, with capital market reforms opening up long-term growth space for leading brokerages. The Shanghai Composite Index rose from a low of 3040 points to break through 4000 points, with an annual increase of 18.41%. The total A-share trading volume reached 420.21 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.64% [5][17] - **New Economy ETF (159822.SZ)**: A one-stop layout for high-quality new economy leading enterprises in China, capturing the key to economic transformation. The ETF indirectly tracks the S&P China New Economy Industry Index, holding leading companies in artificial intelligence, internet, biotechnology, and innovative drugs, which are high-growth sectors [6][19] - **Coal ETF (515220.SH)**: Benefiting from the "anti-involution" policy and dividend investment logic. The central economic work conference in December 2025 identified "deepening the rectification of 'involutionary' competition" as a key task for 2026, which is expected to control new capacity and improve the coal industry's supply-demand fundamentals. As of January 13, 2026, the coal sector's dividend yield reached 5.52%, significantly higher than the market average and the yield on ten-year government bonds [7][22]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various ETF grid strategies focusing on sectors such as pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, and coal, highlighting their potential for investment based on market trends and economic policies. Group 1: Pharmaceutical Sector - The Hang Seng Pharmaceutical ETF (159892.5Z) is expected to benefit from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, which may lower financing costs for pharmaceutical companies, thereby enhancing their R&D capabilities [3][4]. - As of January 2026, China holds approximately 30% of the global new drug pipeline, ranking second worldwide. In 2025, 76 innovative drugs were approved in China, with domestic innovations accounting for 80.85% of chemical drugs and 91.30% of biological products [3][4]. - The total value of innovative drug licensing transactions in China exceeded $130 billion in 2025, with over 150 deals, indicating a significant enhancement in China's innovative drug capabilities and acceleration in globalization [3][4]. Group 2: Brokerage Sector - The Brokerage ETF (159842.5Z) reflects a strong performance in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising from a low of 3040 points to over 4000 points, marking an annual increase of 18.41%. The total trading volume in A-shares reached 420.21 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 62.64% [7][8]. - By the end of 2025, the financing balance in A-shares exceeded 2.52 trillion yuan, growing over 36% compared to the end of 2024, indicating a robust expansion in market activity [7][8]. - The ongoing reforms in the capital market are expected to enhance the efficiency of capital utilization among leading brokerages, thereby expanding their growth potential [8]. Group 3: New Economy Sector - The New Economy ETF (159822.SZ) aims to track the S&P China New Economy Index, focusing on high-growth sectors such as artificial intelligence, internet, biotechnology, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are crucial for capturing new economic growth drivers in China [11]. Group 4: Coal Sector - The Coal ETF (515220.SH) is positioned to benefit from the central economic work conference's focus on controlling new capacity and improving the coal industry's supply-demand fundamentals, which may enhance profitability [15]. - As of January 2026, the coal sector's dividend yield reached 5.52%, significantly higher than the market average and the yield on ten-year government bonds, indicating strong investment value in the medium to long term [15].