伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价延续强劲涨势，再度刷新历史高位。交易所数据显示，提货订单出现自2013年以来最大单日增幅。 周三，受中国台湾和韩国铜提货订单激增的提振，铜价涨超2.8%，每吨价格超过11461美元，突破前日创下的峰值。沪铜期货主力合约站上9万元/ 吨大关，现涨超1%，创历史新高。 分析指出，本轮上涨仍由供应侧逻辑主导。一方面，为规避美国潜在进口关税，大量铜库存正持续向美国转移，加剧其他地区现货紧缺；另一方 面，今年多次矿山生产中断事件已导致全球供应弹性下降。在上述结构性因素支撑下，铜价年内累计涨幅已接近30%。 铜价持续攀升正对下游制造业与建筑业形成成本压力，同时为上游矿业企业带来显著利润空间。市场当前关注焦点转向本周将公布的美国系列经 济数据，包括ADP就业、进口价格及工业生产指标，这些数据或影响后续货币政策预期，进而左右铜价走势。 亚洲提货需求激增，库存订单创十年高峰 伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜提货订单（即"取消仓单"）的激增，成为本次伦铜价格突破历史高点的直接催化因素。据媒体报道，交易所数据显 示，中国台湾与韩国仓库的铜提货订单出现显著增长，推动整体提货订单量升至2013年以来的最高水平。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices continue to rise, reaching a new historical high, driven by significant increases in delivery orders from Taiwan and South Korea, and structural supply-side factors [1] Group 1: Price Movement - LME copper prices increased by 2.4%, surpassing $11,400 per ton, breaking the previous day's peak [1] - The cumulative increase in copper prices for the year is approaching 30% [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The largest single-day increase in delivery orders since 2013 was recorded, indicating heightened demand [1] - A significant transfer of copper inventories to the U.S. is occurring to avoid potential import tariffs, leading to shortages in other regions [1] - Multiple production disruptions in mines this year have resulted in decreased global supply elasticity [1] Group 3: Industry Impact - Rising copper prices are creating cost pressures for downstream manufacturing and construction industries [1] - Upstream mining companies are experiencing significant profit margins due to the price surge [1] Group 4: Market Focus - Market attention is shifting to upcoming U.S. economic data releases, including ADP employment, import prices, and industrial production metrics, which may influence future monetary policy expectations and copper price trends [1]

伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价延续强劲涨势，再度刷新历史高位。交易所数据显示，提货订单出现自2013年以来最大单日增幅。 周三，受中国台湾和韩国铜提货订单激增的提振，铜价一度上涨2.4%，每吨价格超过11400美元，突破前日创下的峰值。 更关键的是，围绕2026年铜精矿加工费（TC/RC）的谈判目前陷入僵局。报道指出，矿商凭借其在供应端的优势地位，在谈判中表现强势。此举 预计将推高未来冶炼环节的原料成本，进而传导至精炼铜市场，加剧供应紧张的预期。 同时，为规避潜在的美国进口关税，贸易商正将大量现货铜转移至美国，此举进一步分流了全球其他地区的可用库存，强化了市场对整体供应紧 张的预期。 分析指出，本轮上涨仍由供应侧逻辑主导。一方面，为规避美国潜在进口关税，大量铜库存正持续向美国转移，加剧其他地区现货紧缺；另一方 面，今年多次矿山生产中断事件已导致全球供应弹性下降。在上述结构性因素支撑下，铜价年内累计涨幅已接近30%。 铜价持续攀升正对下游制造业与建筑业形成成本压力，同时为上游矿业企业带来显著利润空间。市场当前关注焦点转向本周将公布的美国系列经 济数据，包括ADP就业、进口价格及工业生产指标，这些数据或影响后续货币 ...

来源：市场资讯 【导语】： 由于供应的扰动持续，长单的海外溢价远超出市场预期，结合降息预期乐观，宏观和基本 面共振，11月末，铜价翘尾收涨，并于12月初现货价格再度刷新历史高位。后市来看，基本面的结构性 矛盾存在，长期铜价上涨的逻辑不变，短线下调的机会较少。 受多因素共振影响，国内现货铜价继续攀升，截至12月2日，国内现货铜价格升至88745元/吨，同比上 涨20.14%。 回顾本轮的上涨的驱动因子，供应端预期的驱动是关键，其次是宏观情绪的修复。供应端：由于海外矿 山的品味持续下降，供应预期的扰动被放大，市场普遍预计未来TC的长单价格可能无限贴近于0，甚至 是负值。同时，市场消息?智利国家铜业公司（Codelco）已将2026年对中国买家的电解铜年度溢价上调 至每吨350美元（基于LME价格），较2023年商定的89美元上涨近300%?，尽管目前暂时没有买方回 盘，但是供应收紧是下游要面临的现实情况。加之国内方面再传联合减产10%的消息，市场交易预期的 情绪再度升温。而宏观方面，特朗普换人意愿较强，12月降息25个基点的可能性增加。基本面矛盾与未 来流动性预期宽松推动下，主力国内铜价再创新高。 上涨驱动二：下 ...

Group 1: Copper Price Trends - International copper prices have reached new highs, with London copper futures reported at $11,197.5 per ton, marking a year-to-date increase of 27.5% [1] - The initial driver for the price increase is a tightening supply due to operational disruptions at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which is one of the largest copper-gold mines globally, producing 1.7 billion pounds of copper annually [1] - The expected recovery of the Grasberg mine is projected for the first half of 2026, indicating a significant short-term capacity gap in the international copper market [1] Group 2: Demand Factors - The construction boom of data centers and the growing demand from the renewable energy sector and grid upgrades are further increasing the demand for copper [1] - Several analysis firms have raised their projections for refined copper shortages by 2026 to between 300,000 to 400,000 tons [1] Group 3: Macroeconomic Influences - The macroeconomic environment, particularly the Federal Reserve's easing cycle and a weaker dollar, is exerting upward pressure on copper prices [1] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The inclusion of copper in the U.S. critical minerals list has led to increased arbitrage activities, concentrating inventories in the U.S. and tightening non-U.S. markets [2] - Goldman Sachs reports that copper prices are forming a self-reinforcing upward mechanism characterized by "inventory drawdown—spread widening—accelerated stockpiling," which is expected to keep prices high next year [2] Group 5: Price Forecasts - Major Wall Street institutions have raised their copper price targets, with Goldman Sachs predicting prices between $10,000 to $11,000 per ton next year, while JPMorgan and Citigroup are more optimistic, forecasting prices to exceed $12,000 per ton [3] - UBS estimates that copper prices could rise to $13,000 per ton by the end of 2026, and Bank of America anticipates prices to surpass $13,500 per ton by 2027 [3] Group 6: Industry Developments - Glencore and Teck Resources are involved in a significant copper deal, proposing a merger between the Quebrada Blanca mine and the larger Collahuasi mine in northern Chile, which would create one of the world's major copper mining operations [4]

Summary of Conference Call on Copper Market Outlook for 2026 Industry Overview - The focus is on the copper market, with a specific outlook for 2026, highlighting macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics that could influence copper prices significantly [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Price Expectations**: There is a strong expectation for copper prices to rise, with historical highs recently reached in both Shanghai and London copper markets, indicating robust market sentiment for 2026 [1][3]. 2. **Supply-Demand Dynamics**: A persistent supply-demand imbalance is noted, with the need for higher prices to stimulate supply. If copper prices do not increase significantly in the coming years, the supply-demand gap is expected to widen [2][9]. 3. **Inventory Levels**: Current inventory levels are low, particularly in non-US regions, which is a critical factor that could catalyze price increases. The low inventory situation is seen as a significant driver for future price movements [6][9]. 4. **Global Production Trends**: The production from the top 15 global copper mining companies is declining, with an expected reduction of 300,000 tons in total output for the year 2025. This trend is anticipated to continue into 2026, exacerbating supply constraints [10][11]. 5. **Impact of AI Development**: The rise of AI technologies is projected to significantly increase copper demand, with major projects like the Stargate initiative expected to require substantial amounts of copper, potentially doubling current demand levels [3][16]. 6. **Macroeconomic Factors**: The macroeconomic environment, particularly fiscal and monetary policies in the US and China, is expected to support copper prices. A potential recovery in manufacturing sectors could lead to significant price increases similar to those seen in early 2024 [4][8]. 7. **Future Supply Challenges**: New mining projects are unlikely to meet the anticipated demand growth of 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons, leading to a likely widening of the supply gap [11][12]. 8. **Long-term Capital Expenditure Trends**: Insufficient capital expenditure in the mining sector is expected to lead to ongoing supply tightness in the coming years, with current spending levels only half of previous cycle peaks [12][13]. Additional Important Insights - **Quarterly Demand Outlook**: The demand outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025 appears weak, but a potential recovery in early 2026 could lead to a strong price rally [7][8]. - **Historical Price Influences**: Past price movements have been influenced by various factors, including geopolitical events and production disruptions, which continue to play a role in shaping market expectations [5]. - **Electric Grid Investments**: Post-2023, investments in electric grids are expected to rise significantly, driven by the need to support renewable energy sources, which could further bolster copper demand [14]. This comprehensive analysis indicates a bullish outlook for copper prices in 2026, driven by a combination of low inventory levels, supply constraints, and increasing demand from emerging technologies and macroeconomic recovery.

Group 1: Copper Price Trends - Recent copper prices have been on the rise, with both Shanghai and London copper reaching highs not seen since the end of October. The macroeconomic environment in November has become a key driver of copper price fluctuations, influenced by changing expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] - Following a hawkish signal from the Federal Reserve at the end of October, market expectations for a rate cut in December decreased, leading to a temporary decline in copper prices. However, after dovish signals from Fed officials in late November, expectations for a rate cut rose again, surpassing 80%, which contributed to a resurgence in copper prices and an increase in open interest [1] Group 2: Supply Constraints - The announcement by Freeport regarding production cuts at its Grasberg mine has heightened expectations of a contraction in copper supply, placing copper prices in a position where they are more likely to rise than fall. This has led to an upward shift in copper price levels [2] - Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, has proposed a significant increase in annual contract premiums for refined copper to Chinese buyers for 2026, with quotes ranging from $335 to $350 per ton, a rise of over 275% compared to 2025. Premiums for long-term contracts to Europe and South Korea have also increased to over $300 per ton, while U.S. buyers face premiums exceeding $500 per ton, marking the highest premiums in history [2] Group 3: Domestic Production and Policy Changes - Since September, the monthly production of electrolytic copper in China has significantly decreased due to refinery maintenance and a decline in anode copper supply. The Vice President of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association indicated that negative processing fees are severely harming the global copper smelting industry, including China [3] - China has halted approximately 2 million tons of illegal production capacity to curb excessive expansion in the copper smelting industry, signaling the end of an era of unchecked growth and indicating a potential restructuring of profit distribution and supply dynamics across the entire industry chain [3] Group 4: Demand Dynamics - Copper demand is exhibiting a "weak external, strong internal" pattern, with global refined copper consumption projected to grow by 5.5% in the first three quarters of 2025, while China's consumption is expected to rise by 8.5% [4] - Global copper inventories have been increasing rapidly in November, largely due to high price volatility suppressing downstream consumption. COMEX inventories have risen significantly, primarily driven by arbitrage opportunities, while domestic inventories have not shown a notable increase due to a decline in net imports [4] - The combination of rising expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and tightening copper supply has created a favorable macroeconomic and industrial environment, driving copper prices higher. Both London and Shanghai copper prices have reached historical highs not seen in five years, with increased open interest indicating heightened market interest [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that global copper supply and demand are expected to shift from surplus to shortage by 2026, leading to a potential increase in copper prices, with average prices and peaks likely to exceed $11,000 and $12,000 per ton respectively [1][2] Group 2 - On the supply side, extreme weather events, human-induced disasters, and escalating geopolitical factors are anticipated to significantly disrupt global copper production, with 2025's production forecast being revised down to a year-on-year increase of only 12,000 tons, compared to a previous estimate of 141,000 tons [1] - The report predicts that if disruptive events continue, the copper supply increment for 2026 will remain limited, despite high copper prices potentially stimulating rapid growth in recycled copper production [1] Group 3 - On the demand side, the electricity sector is identified as a key driver for copper demand growth in 2026, with projected global demand increment and growth rate of 770,000 tons and 2.97% respectively [2] - The overall expectation is that the combination of global economic recovery, rising inflation, and widespread fiscal and monetary easing will contribute to the continued increase in copper prices [2]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 02 日 铜：紧张预期，价格上涨 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 89,280 | 2.12% | 89380 | 0.11% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 11,233 | 0.51% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 371,241 | 177,193 | 586,274 | 39,763 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 27,396 | 4,846 | 334,000 | 939 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 31,495 | -3,749 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 159,425 | 0 | 4.06% | -0.06% | | | | | ...

每经AI快讯，12月1日，LME伦铜涨幅扩大，现涨1.05%，最新报11306.12美元/吨。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...