分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 相关报告 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 传媒酿酒行业领涨 A 股小幅上行 《市场分析：煤炭有色行业领涨 A 股小幅上 行》 2026-01-28 《市场分析：金融半导体领涨 A 股小幅上 行 》 2026-01-27 《市场分析：金融有色行业领涨 A 股小幅整 ——市场分析 理 》 2026-01-26 联系人： 李智 电话： 0371-65585629 风险提示：海外超预期衰退，影响国内经济复苏进程；国内政 策及经济复苏进度不及预期；宏观经济超预期扰动；政策超预期 变化；国际关系变化带来经济环境变化；海外宏观流动性超预期 收紧；海外波动加剧。 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 第1页 / 共7页 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10号18楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道 1788 号 T1 座 22 楼 证券研究报告-市场分析 发布日期：2026 年 01 月 29 日 投资要点： ◼ A 股市场综述 周四（01 月 29 日）A 股市场先抑后扬、小幅震荡上行，早盘股 ...

保险业协会于上周组织召开了人身保险业利率研究专家咨询委员会2025年四季度例会，研讨经济形势、 利率走势，认为当前普通型人身保险产品预定利率研究值为1.90%，环比上季度下降1bp。 预定利率研究值环比微降1bp至1.89%，预计全年大幅下行空间有限，预定利率调整概率较小 本次会议将普通型人身险产品的预定利率研究值设定为1.89%，至此，预定利率动态调整机制实施以 来，2024Q4至2025Q4呈现逐季下调态势，分别为2.34%、2.13%、1.99%、1.90%、1.89%，单季分别环 比下降21bps、14bps、9bps、1bp，降幅持续收窄。对预定利率研究值的参考指标进行拆解，5Y-LPR （2025Q4仍为3.5%）和5Y定存利率（2025Q4仍为1.3%）与二季度和三季度均保持一致，10Y国债收益 率2025Q4下降1.32bp，与研究值趋势保持一致。该行预计全年预定利率研究值大幅下行空间有限，后续 触及新的调整阈值的概率较小，产品设计的持续性和稳定性将进一步夯实。 智通财经APP获悉，东海证券发布研报称，寿险负债转型仍在推进，队伍规模下滑幅度边际减弱，产能 提升成效显著，该行认为应持续关注在稳定 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2026年01月29日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 联系人： 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn 联系人： 邓尧天 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20260129 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 dytian@longone.com.cn [table_summary] ➢ 1.预定利率研究值环比微降1bp至1.89%，"开门红"销售火热——保险业态观察（十三） ➢ 2.美元大跌会是广场协议2.0吗？——海外观察：美国经济热点简评 ➢ 3.其他收益推动利润增速回升——国内观察：2025年12月工业企业利润数据 ➢ 1.美联储如期暂停降息 ➢ 2.上海黄金交易所调整白银延期合约保证金水平和涨跌停板 ➢ 3.财联社：多家房企表示目前已不被监管部门要求每月上报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest tax data from the National Taxation Administration indicates that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China is making solid progress in high-quality development, with significant advancements expected by 2025 [1] Group 1: High-End Manufacturing - The sales revenue of the national equipment manufacturing industry has an average annual growth rate of 9.1%, consistently outpacing the average growth rate of the manufacturing sector, reflecting steady progress in the high-end manufacturing sector [1] Group 2: Innovation Industries - The sales revenue of the national high-tech industry has an average annual growth rate of 13.9%, maintaining a rapid growth pace, indicating an acceleration in the development of innovation industries [1] Group 3: Digital Economy - The sales revenue of the core industries of the digital economy has an average annual growth rate of 10.5%, while the annual growth rate of enterprise procurement of digital technologies is 11.2%, reflecting the ongoing acceleration of digital industrialization and industrial digitalization processes [1] Group 4: Green Transition - The sales revenue of the new energy vehicle manufacturing industry has an average annual growth rate of 49.5%, while the sales revenue of clean energy generation, represented by wind, solar, water, and nuclear power, has an average annual growth rate of 13.9%, indicating a deepening of the green transition [1] Group 5: Unified Market - The proportion of inter-provincial trade sales to total sales has increased from 38.6% in 2021 to 41% in 2025, reflecting the accelerated promotion of a unified national market [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the solid progress of China's high-quality economic development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with significant advancements in high-end manufacturing, innovative industries, digital economy, and green transformation [1][2] Group 2 - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," the sales revenue of the equipment manufacturing industry grew at an average annual rate of 9.1%, consistently outpacing the average growth rate of the manufacturing sector. By 2025, the sales revenue is expected to increase by 7.4%, accounting for 47.7% of the manufacturing sector, a rise of 4.7 percentage points from 2021 [1] - The high-tech industry experienced an average annual sales revenue growth of 13.9%, reflecting a rapid pace of innovation. By 2025, high-tech industry sales revenue is projected to grow by 13.9%, with high-tech manufacturing and services growing by 10.1% and 16.6%, respectively. Notably, sectors like "Artificial Intelligence+" are accelerating, with smart consumer devices, integrated circuits, and robotics manufacturing growing by 32.4%, 19.2%, and 24% respectively [1] Group 3 - The core industries of the digital economy saw an average annual sales revenue growth of 10.5%, with enterprise procurement of digital technologies growing by 11.2%, indicating a sustained acceleration in digital industrialization and industrial digitalization [2] - The new energy vehicle industry maintained a leading advantage, with manufacturing sales revenue growing at an average annual rate of 49.5%. By 2025, the new energy vehicle manufacturing is expected to grow by 14.3%, while clean energy generation sales revenue is projected to increase by 17.3%, accounting for 38.5% of total electricity production revenue, a rise of 6.9 percentage points from 2021 [2] Group 4 - The inter-provincial trade sales accounted for 41% of total sales by 2025, up from 38.6% in 2021. Additionally, the proportion of tax-related business entities engaged in cross-province sales reached 57.6% of total sales entities by 2025 [2]

Core Insights - The A-share market is experiencing significant structural characteristics with accelerated sector rotation, highlighting the importance of efficient and high-quality information for investment decisions [1] Group 1: Key Features of "Pre-Market Gold" - The service provides a concise summary of market insights before trading begins, focusing on areas that may present investment opportunities [1][6] - It delivers rapid updates on major brokerage opinions, allowing investors to quickly understand what large funds are focusing on [2] - The service curates 1-2 high-potential thematic opportunities daily, analyzing event catalysts, industry logic, and capital movements [3] Group 2: Information Filtering - The service filters out noise from macro and industry news, highlighting key information that truly impacts sectors and stock prices [4] - It organizes critical company announcements from the night and early morning, capturing valuable signals and potential market reactions [5] Group 3: Advantages of Choosing "Pre-Market Gold" - The service saves time by providing a brief that replaces hours of information gathering and reading [6] - It focuses on practical content directly related to secondary market investments, offering actionable decision-making information [7] - The service integrates authoritative sources from brokerages, media, and company announcements to minimize information loss [8] - It aims to establish a systematic pre-market preparation habit by providing timely updates every trading day [9] Group 4: Recent Content Preview - Recent highlights include a resurgence in brokerage earnings, the breakthrough of Shanghai's intelligent computing scale, and a focus on performance lines amid market adjustments [10] - Other notable mentions are the rise in storage chip prices, increased gold demand due to seasonal consumption, and advancements in AI and high-end manufacturing sectors [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the performance forecasts of various A-share listed companies, indicating significant growth in sectors driven by AI computing power, resource prices, and financial market activity, while also noting challenges faced by traditional industries [4][26][30]. Group 1: Companies with Notable Performance Growth - State Grid Yingda (600517.SH) expects a net profit of 2.3 billion to 2.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.10% to 74.69%, driven by stable growth in its main business and significant investment returns from its financial sector [6]. - Zhongjin Gold (600489.SH) anticipates a net profit of 4.8 billion to 5.4 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 41.76% to 59.48%, benefiting from higher gold sales prices and improved profitability in its mining operations [6]. - Shenzhen South Circuit (002916.SZ) projects a net profit of 3.154 billion to 3.342 billion yuan, with a growth of 68% to 78%, capitalizing on AI computing upgrades and increased demand in the storage market [6]. - Dongfang Securities (600958.SH) forecasts a net profit of 5.62 billion yuan, a 67.8% increase, supported by a vibrant capital market and strong performance in its wealth management and institutional business [6]. - Chengdu Xian Dao (688222.SH) expects a net profit of 104 million to 127 million yuan, a growth of 102.50% to 147.29%, driven by stable revenue growth and improved gross margins [6]. Group 2: Companies Facing Challenges - Jinjia Co. (002191.SZ) anticipates a loss of 251.95 million to 503.90 million yuan, transitioning from profit to loss due to client structure adjustments and expected impairment provisions [20]. - Mulin Sen (002745.SZ) projects a loss of 1.5 billion to 1.1 billion yuan, also moving from profit to loss due to weak demand in the European market and increased operational costs [21]. - Tianwei Vision (002238.SZ) expects a loss of 160 million to 220 million yuan, influenced by declining rental prices in the data center market and reduced revenue from traditional cable services [23]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The technology growth narrative is clear, with companies like Shenzhen South Circuit and Huadian Co. benefiting from AI computing upgrades and high-end manufacturing demands [26]. - Resource price sensitivity is evident, with companies like Zhongjin Gold and Xiamen Tungsten experiencing performance recovery due to rising prices of strategic resources [26]. - The financial sector shows resilience and transformation, with firms like Dongfang Securities and Guotai Junan benefiting from increased market activity and strategic shifts [27]. - The recovery in consumer and service industries is highlighted by Wanda Film's return to profitability, showcasing the importance of content and experiential consumption [28]. - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing significant differentiation, with companies like Chengdu Xian Dao achieving high growth through innovation, while others face competitive pressures [29].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the solid progress of high-quality development in China during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with significant advancements in various sectors [1][2] Group 2 - High-end manufacturing is thriving, with an average annual sales revenue growth of 9.1% in the equipment manufacturing industry, which is consistently higher than the average growth rate of the manufacturing sector. By 2025, sales revenue in this sector is expected to grow by 7.4%, accounting for 47.7% of the manufacturing industry, an increase of 4.7 percentage points from 2021 [1] - The advanced manufacturing sectors, such as computer communication equipment and instrument manufacturing, have shown strong growth, with year-on-year increases of 11.5% and 10.3% respectively. Additionally, the sales revenue of major equipment like shipbuilding and industrial mother machines has increased by 10.6% and 10.5% respectively [1] Group 3 - The innovation industry is experiencing robust growth, with an average annual sales revenue increase of 13.9% in high-tech industries during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. By 2025, high-tech manufacturing and services are projected to grow by 10.1% and 16.6% respectively [1] - The "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative is accelerating, with significant year-on-year growth in smart consumer device manufacturing (32.4%), integrated circuit manufacturing (19.2%), and robotics manufacturing (24%) [1] Group 4 - The digital economy is rapidly integrating, with an average annual sales revenue growth of 10.5% in core digital economy industries and an 11.2% increase in enterprise procurement of digital technologies during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. By 2025, the sales revenue of core digital economy industries is expected to grow by 9.4% [2] - The manufacturing sector is advancing quickly in digitalization, with procurement of digital technologies increasing by 10.4% [2] Group 5 - The green transition is deepening, with the new energy vehicle industry maintaining a leading advantage, showing an average annual sales revenue growth of 49.5%. By 2025, sales revenue in this sector is expected to grow by 14.3% [2] - The clean energy generation sector, represented by wind, solar, and nuclear power, has an average annual sales revenue growth of 13.9%. By 2025, this sector is projected to grow by 17.3%, accounting for 38.5% of total electricity production revenue, an increase of 6.9 percentage points from 2021 [2] Group 6 - The unified national market is accelerating, with inter-provincial trade sales accounting for 41% of total sales by 2025, up from 38.6% in 2021. Additionally, the proportion of tax-related business entities involved in cross-province sales is expected to reach 57.6% of total sales entities by 2025 [2]

Group 1: Economic Development - The analysis of tax data during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period indicates that China's economy is accelerating towards high-quality development, achieving new results [1] - The sales revenue of the equipment manufacturing industry has an average annual growth rate of 9.1%, consistently higher than the average growth rate of the manufacturing sector [1] - By 2025, the sales revenue of the equipment manufacturing industry is expected to grow by 7.4% year-on-year, accounting for 47.7% of the manufacturing sector, an increase of 4.7 percentage points from 2021 [1] Group 2: High-tech Industry Growth - The sales revenue of high-tech industries is projected to have an average annual growth rate of 13.9% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [2] - By 2025, high-tech manufacturing and high-tech service industries are expected to grow by 10.1% and 16.6% year-on-year, respectively [2] - Specific sectors such as smart consumer devices, integrated circuit manufacturing, and robotics are anticipated to grow by 32.4%, 19.2%, and 24% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Digital Economy Integration - The core industries of the digital economy are expected to see an average annual growth rate of 10.5% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [2] - By 2025, the sales revenue of the digital economy core industries is projected to grow by 9.4% year-on-year, with manufacturing digitalization progressing rapidly [2] - The amount spent on purchasing digital technologies is expected to grow by 10.4% year-on-year [2] Group 4: Green Transformation - The sales revenue from the manufacturing of new energy vehicles is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 49.5% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [2] - By 2025, the new energy vehicle manufacturing sector is projected to grow by 14.3% year-on-year, while the clean energy power generation sector is expected to grow by 17.3% [2] - Clean energy power generation is anticipated to account for 38.5% of total sales revenue in the electricity production industry, an increase of 6.9 percentage points from 2021 [2] Group 5: Market Integration - The proportion of inter-provincial trade sales to total sales is expected to increase from 38.6% in 2021 to 41% by 2025 [2] - By 2025, the number of tax-related business entities involved in cross-province sales is projected to account for 57.6% of total sales entities [2]

银龙股份 20260127 摘要 银龙股份高毛利产品包括大箱和小箱类产品（毛利率 30%-35%，市占 率 40%，2024 年销量 3 万吨，2025 年预计 5 万吨），超微粉有限类 产品（毛利率 30%-35%，市占率 60%，2024 年销售 1.6 万吨， 2025 年预计 3 万吨），以及轨道板类产品（毛利率 40%-50%，市占 率 40%-50%，24 年销售 2 万吨，25 年预计 4 万吨）。 公司 CRTS3 型轨道板订单充足，已签订超过 40 亿元订单，海外市场通 过与俄罗斯莫斯科的视频保障合作，提供高端装备，预计未来两到三年 内贡献约 3 亿元净利润，首套设备已发货，并积极开拓欧洲市场。 银龙股份在精细化业务方面，通过收购资产打造全品类公司，应用场景 包括航天、军工、高铁、机器人、深海汽车等领域，并参股陕西硬质合 金工具有限公司和天津爱斯达航天科技股份有限公司，分别布局高端刀 具和商业航天领域。 公司与陕西硬质合金工具有限公司有长期合作，计划设立生产基地生产 高端刀具，并适时并入上市公司；与天津爱斯达航天科技股份有限公司 正在探讨协同效应，共同推进高端公司发展。 Q&A 银龙股份 2 ...