Group 1: PMI Overview - In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up from 49.4% in the previous month[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI stood at 50.0%, slightly down from 50.3%[2] - The manufacturing PMI's increase aligns with seasonal trends, with a month-on-month rise of 0.4 percentage points (pct) compared to the previous value[2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The production index rose to 51.9% (+1.1pct), indicating stronger supply than demand[2] - The new orders index increased to 49.7% (+0.2pct), while the new export orders index was at 47.8% (+0.6pct), showing resilience in external demand[2] - Overall, the supply-demand balance remains skewed towards supply exceeding demand[2] Group 3: Price Index Trends - The price index declined after three consecutive increases, with the main raw material purchase price index at 53.2% (-0.1pct) and the factory price index at 48.2% (-0.9pct)[2] - This reflects a weakening impact of "anti-involution" policies on upstream raw material prices, shifting focus to the actual implementation of policies[2] Group 4: Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing PMI rose to 51.9% (+1.4pct), marking the highest point since March[2] - The consumer goods sector PMI increased to 50.6% (+1.4pct), driven by seasonal demand ahead of the upcoming holidays[2] - The high-energy-consuming industries PMI fell to 47.5% (-0.7pct), consistent with previous price index trends[2] Group 5: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.3pct to 50.0%, slightly below the five-year average[2] - In the service sector, travel-related consumption saw a seasonal decline, while financial services maintained high activity levels[2] - The construction PMI was at 49.3% (+0.2pct), with weather conditions impacting project initiation[2]

Group 1: PMI and Economic Indicators - In September 2025, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment[1] - The production index for September was reported at 51.9%, up from 50.8% in August, reflecting a significant rebound in production activity[2] - The supply-demand gap widened to 2.2 percentage points, indicating that production continues to outpace demand[2] Group 2: Price and Inventory Trends - The PMI for factory prices and raw material purchase prices decreased to 48.2% and 53.2%, respectively, with a notable drop in factory prices attributed to changes in consumer subsidy policies[3] - The average price of rebar, hot-rolled coils, and wire rods fell by 1.83%, 1.48%, and 4.1% month-on-month, reaching 3264 CNY/ton, 3406 CNY/ton, and 3205 CNY/ton respectively[3] - Finished goods inventory index increased by 1.4 percentage points to 48.2%, indicating a tight balance in inventory levels[4] Group 3: Business Performance by Size - Large enterprises saw an increase in their index by 0.5 percentage points to 50.8%, while small enterprises rose by 1.6 percentage points to 48.2%[4] - Medium-sized enterprises experienced a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points to 48.8%[4] - The construction sector's business activity index rose to 49.3%, but both housing and civil engineering indices remained below 50%, indicating ongoing challenges[4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The September PMI rebound and production expansion suggest economic resilience, but the continuous contraction in PMI over six months highlights underlying economic pressures[5] - The fluctuation in inventory indices indicates that the economy has not yet stabilized to provide firms with consistent expectations[5] - Future export pressures and the impact of subsidy policies on production and pricing remain critical factors for economic health[7]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September is 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing activity [1] - The production index rose to 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points, reaching a six-month high, while the new orders index increased to 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points [1] - Industries such as food and beverage, automotive, and aerospace equipment showed production and new order indices above 54.0%, indicating rapid demand release [1] Group 2: Market Demand and Supply - The procurement volume index increased to 51.6%, driven by the recovery in manufacturing production, as companies accelerated raw material purchases [1] - The new export orders index rose to 47.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, marking two consecutive months of increase, supported by stable performance in traditional export sectors [2] - The production-related indices indicate a steady increase in manufacturing activities since the second half of the year, with supply-side vitality continuing to rise [2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points, indicating overall stability in the sector [3] - The service sector business activity index is at 50.1%, remaining in the expansion zone, with sectors like postal and financial services showing strong growth [3] - The financial sector's business activity index has risen above 60% for two consecutive months, indicating robust performance and support for the real economy [3] Group 4: Future Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index for September is 54.1%, up 0.4 percentage points, reflecting positive market outlook among manufacturing enterprises [2] - The service sector business activity expectation index is at 56.3%, indicating stable optimism among service industry enterprises regarding future development [4] - Experts anticipate a demand surge in the restaurant and entertainment sectors due to the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, which may boost industry performance [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the manufacturing PMI was below the boom-bust line for the sixth consecutive month, showing production expansion and slightly weak demand. The service industry business activity index expanded moderately above the boom-bust line, but the new order index declined from the previous month. It is expected that counter-cyclical adjustment policies, including 50 billion yuan in new policy-based financial instruments, will be implemented in the fourth quarter [5][10]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing Industry - **PMI**: In September, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, below the boom-bust line for six consecutive months, up from 49.4% in the previous month. Large enterprises continued to expand in the prosperity range, medium-sized enterprises remained stable, and the decline of small enterprises narrowed [2][6]. - **Production Index**: The production index in September was 51.9%, up from 50.8% in the previous month, with accelerated production expansion for five consecutive months [2][6]. - **New Order Index**: The new order index in September was 49.7%, up from 49.5% in the previous month, indicating improved market demand, but still below the boom-bust line [2][6]. - **New Export and Import Order Indexes**: The new export order index in September was 47.8%, up from 47.2% in the previous month; the import index was 48.1%, up from 48.0% in the previous month. It is expected that China's exports will continue to grow rapidly in September [2][7]. - **Price Indexes**: The purchase price index of major raw materials and the ex-factory price index in September were 53.2% and 48.2% respectively. The former was in the expansion range for three consecutive months, while the latter declined from August. It is expected that the year-on-year decline of PPI in September will narrow to about 2.3% [3][7]. - **Inventory Indexes**: The raw material inventory index in September was 48.5%, up from 48.0% in the previous month; the finished product inventory index was 48.2%, up from 46.8% in the previous month. The rebound of the finished product inventory index was related to production expansion, and its sustainability depends on future new orders [4][8]. - **Employment and Expectation Indexes**: The employment index in September was 48.5%, up from 47.9% in the previous month, and the production and operation activity expectation index was 54.1%, up from 53.7% in the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in the employment situation and future expectations [9]. Non - Manufacturing Industry - **Overall Non - Manufacturing Business Activity Index**: In September, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, down from 50.3% in the previous month [4][9]. - **Construction Industry**: The construction industry business activity index in September was 49.3%, up from 49.1% in the previous month, with a slight recovery but still weak. The new order index was 42.2%, up from 40.6% in the previous month; the employment index was 39.7%, down from 43.6% in the previous month; the business activity expectation index was 52.4%, up from 51.7% in the previous month. The real estate market was still at the bottom, and real estate development investment was expected to contract significantly in September, dragging down the construction industry [4][9]. - **Service Industry**: The service industry business activity index in September was 50.1%, down from 50.5% in the previous month. The new order index was 46.7%, down from 47.7% in the previous month; the employment index remained unchanged at 45.9%; the business activity expectation index was 56.3%, down from 57.0% in the previous month. Industries such as postal, telecommunications, and financial services were in a high - level prosperity range, while industries such as catering, real estate, and cultural and sports entertainment were below the critical point [4][10].

Core Viewpoint - The September PMI data indicates a seasonal improvement in the economy, with production outpacing demand and a stable export outlook, despite challenges faced by medium-sized enterprises and the construction sector [1][4][17]. Group 1: PMI Data Insights - The September PMI is reported at 49.8, an increase from the previous value of 49.4, suggesting a slight recovery in economic activity [7]. - The production index reached a new high since February 2024, indicating that production is stronger than demand, with a difference of 2.2 points between the production and new orders indices [8][10]. - The new export orders index stands at 47.8, showing stability in export demand despite fluctuations due to tariffs and external economic conditions [11]. Group 2: Business Size Impact - Large enterprises show a higher PMI of 51.0, while small enterprises improved by 1.6 points, indicating short-term recovery, whereas medium-sized enterprises face more pressure with a PMI of 48.8 [11][12]. - The disparity in performance suggests that large enterprises benefit more from significant projects, while small enterprises gain from exports and emerging sectors [11]. Group 3: Price Trends and Expectations - The price index for September shows a slight decline, indicating that the price trend is not yet solidified, with the purchasing price index at 53.2 and the factory price index at 48.2 [12][13]. - The production activity expectation index has improved, reflecting better microeconomic expectations among businesses, with a value of 54.1 in September [13]. Group 4: Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing sector shows the highest PMI at 51.9, while consumer goods manufacturing has improved to 50.6, benefiting from seasonal factors like the upcoming National Day holiday [14][15]. - The construction sector remains weak, with a PMI of 49.3, indicating ongoing challenges in fixed asset investment and construction activity [16]. Group 5: Overall Economic Outlook - The stabilization of soft data in September is seen as a positive sign, although the overall economic climate still requires consolidation, with manufacturing PMI remaining below 50 [4][17]. - The need for stronger price trends and investment in infrastructure is emphasized to prevent further economic slowdown [17].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - In September, due to the traditional peak season, corporate production and business activities accelerated. The manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index were 49.8%, 50%, and 50.6% respectively, showing an overall recovery and indicating that China's economic output remained in an expansion phase. However, there were still weaknesses in investment, and consumption growth slowed down. Exports maintained resilience but might slow down in the future. Overall, demand improved, production accelerated, and prices showed different trends [2] - The demand side saw short - term acceleration in external demand and short - term recovery but still weak internal demand. In production, industrial production accelerated significantly in September and was expected to slow down but continue to grow at a relatively high rate in the fourth quarter. Prices of domestic and foreign demand - type commodities showed different trends [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing - In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, better than the expected 49.7% and up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing market demand improved, with the new order index rising 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%. Production expanded faster, with the production index rising 1.1 percentage points to 51.9%. Both external and internal demand in foreign trade increased, with the new export order index and import index rising 0.6% and 0.1% respectively [3] - Manufacturing market prices dropped slightly. The main raw material purchase price index and the ex - factory price index decreased by 0.1 and 0.9 percentage points respectively. Industrial production accelerated, but investment demand in infrastructure and real estate was weak. Domestic "anti - involution" policies supported domestic - demand commodities, and international commodity prices rebounded [3][4] - Both the finished - product inventory and raw material inventory increased. The finished - product inventory index rose 1.4 percentage points to 48.2%, and the raw material inventory index rose 0.5 percentage points to 48.5%. Enterprises actively replenished raw material inventory and passively replenished finished - product inventory [4] Non - manufacturing - In September, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The service industry remained in the expansion range, with some industries in a high - level boom range and others falling below the critical point due to the end of the summer vacation effect. The construction industry's business activity index rose 0.2 percentage points to 49.3%, and its market expectation improved [5] Composite - In September, the composite PMI output index was 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities continued to accelerate [5]

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Group 1 - In September, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from August, marking two consecutive months of growth [1][3] - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index stood at 50%, indicating stable overall operations, while the comprehensive PMI output index remained in expansion [1][6] - The financial sector's business activity index rose above 60%, outperforming the same period last year, providing a favorable financial environment for economic recovery [5][6] Group 2 - The production index, new orders index, and purchasing volume index showed signs of recovery, while order indices remained below the threshold, highlighting persistent demand challenges [3][4] - The construction sector's business activity index remained below 50%, indicating weak growth in investment-related construction activities [7] - The overall economic outlook for the fourth quarter is positive, driven by macroeconomic policy support, holiday consumption, and project launches [8][10] Group 3 - The average PMI for the manufacturing sector in the third quarter was 49.5%, showing a slight increase compared to the second quarter and the same period last year [9] - The non-manufacturing sector maintained stable operations with an average business activity index of 50.1% in the third quarter [9] - Expectations for the fourth quarter are optimistic, with manufacturing enterprises showing increased confidence in production activities [10]

Group 1 - China's September manufacturing PMI is expected to be 49.7%, slightly up from the previous value of 49.4%, while the non-manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.5%, up from 50.3% [1] - A slight increase in both PMIs may support a rise in commodity futures and stock index futures prices, but could mildly suppress government bond futures prices [1] Group 2 - The USDA is set to release the quarterly grain inventory report, which will impact futures prices for corn, wheat, and soybeans [2] Group 3 - The US ISM manufacturing PMI for September is anticipated to be 49.2%, an increase from the previous 48.7% [3] - A slight rise in the ISM manufacturing PMI may support increases in prices for non-ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures, while potentially suppressing gold and silver futures prices [3] Group 4 - The EIA will announce the weekly crude oil inventory change, with the previous value showing a decrease of 607,000 barrels [4] - A continued decrease in crude oil inventory could support rising prices for crude oil and related commodity futures [4] Group 5 - The US Labor Department will report initial jobless claims, with expectations set at 215,000, down from the previous 218,000 [5] - A slight decrease in jobless claims may support increases in industrial commodity futures prices, except for gold and silver [5] Group 6 - The US non-farm payroll report for September is expected to show an increase of 39,000 jobs, up from 22,000 previously, with an unemployment rate forecasted to remain at 4.3% [6] - If the non-farm payrolls exceed expectations while the unemployment rate and average hourly wage growth remain stable, it may support increases in industrial commodity futures prices but suppress gold and silver futures prices [6] Group 7 - OPEC+ will hold a meeting regarding oil production policies, with expectations of an increase in production by 137,000 barrels per day and a potential lifting of a second batch of production cuts totaling 1.65 million barrels per day [7] - The outcomes of this meeting are anticipated to impact crude oil and related commodity futures prices [7]

RatingDog解读：最近制造业景气改善，关键在于新订单的加速增长。需求基本面改善、企业致力促销、新品发布，共同推动最近新业务总量的增长，并且创下2月份后最高增速。同时，新出口订单量也在3月后首次录得增长，虽然增速仅算轻微。新接业务量上升，带动制造业产量录得3个月来最快增速。调查样本企业表示，金属和肉类价格走高，导致整体费用上升。当月投入成本涨幅为10个月来最高，但仍低于长期均值。虽然新业务和经营活动稳健增长，但9月份仍然延续用工收缩。据反映，在人员离职和企业裁员背景下， 当月用工录 得2024年4月后最急剧收缩率。综合PMI创下2024年6月后最强劲增速。 ...