Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be a "watershed" for the Fed's policy direction. The market should focus on three key signals: labor market judgment, inflation risk statements, and emphasis on policy flexibility [2][36] - Powell's speech at the meeting is likely to maintain a "neutral to hawkish" stance, emphasizing "inflation resilience" and "policy flexibility" to guide the market to reduce bets on "consecutive rate cuts" [3] - The Fed's core goal of "balancing inflation and growth" remains unchanged. The game between the lagged impact of tariffs and economic downside risks will be the main line of future monetary policy [3] Summary by Directory Introduction: Policy Weathervane Significance of the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting - The Jackson Hole Annual Meeting is a key platform for the Fed to release major policy signals. The policy statements at this meeting often set the tone for subsequent monetary policies [4][7] Current Economic Background and Complexity of the Fed's Policy Environment Macro - economic and Policy Pressure Intertwined - The US economy shows multiple contradictory features. Inflation pressure is structurally differentiated, with core CPI showing more resilience. The labor market is cooling but still has some strength, and external policy pressure has increased significantly [8][11][13] - As of August 19, the market's probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September has reached 90%, and some institutions have even raised the probability of a 50 - basis - point rate cut [13] Fed's Internal Disagreement - The dovish camp is concerned about economic downside risks and employment market slowdown, advocating for near - term rate cuts. The hawkish camp emphasizes labor market resilience and inflation rebound risks, advocating maintaining high interest rates [14] Key Economic Data Analysis July US CPI Data - July CPI showed "overall stability and strong core." Energy prices declined, food prices were stable, while core services inflation was strong. Different commodity items were affected differently by tariffs and demand [15] July US PPI Data - July PPI showed an unexpected increase, mainly driven by services. The increase in PPI may not fully reflect fundamental inflation pressure, but it indicates potential upward risks for future CPI [22][23] Root Causes of the July CPI and PPI Divergence - The divergence between CPI and PPI reflects the complexity of inflation transmission, including a 1 - 3 - month time lag in cost transfer and possible statistical differences [25] Possible Scenarios of Powell's Speech and Policy Signal Analysis - Scenario 1: Absence from the meeting. This is a "passive neutral" strategy to avoid market volatility and leave policy decisions to economic data before the September meeting [27] - Scenario 2: Deliver a "non - substantial" speech. This is to maintain policy options' openness and postpone the final decision to the September meeting [28] - Scenario 3: Moderately release rate - cut signals. This requires further deterioration of employment data and significant escalation of external pressure from the Trump administration [28] Market Expectations and Future Monetary Policy Outlook Short - term Market Expectations and Risks - Market expectations of the number of rate cuts this year are around 3 times, but this is at risk of adjustment. US economic downside risks are accumulating, making short - term policy expectations more complex [34] Medium - to - Long - term Monetary Policy Path - The lagged impact of tariffs will be a key constraint on the Fed's policy in the next 1 - 2 years. In Q4 2025, inflation pressure may intensify, and in 2026, inflation is likely to fall, opening up room for significant rate cuts [34] Conclusion: Core Observation Points of the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting - The meeting will be a "watershed" for the Fed's policy. The market should focus on labor market judgment, inflation risk statements, and policy flexibility [36]

Group 1 - The core driver of inflation risk in the U.S. is the significant increase in import tariffs, with the effective tariff rate rising to 9.1% as of June 2025, an increase of 6.9 percentage points since the beginning of the year [1][10][20] - The current inflation in core goods is primarily driven by high import dependence and low inventory levels in categories such as furniture, apparel, and leisure goods [1][10][28] - The direct impact of tariffs has been significant, with import prices rising approximately 5.4% since early March, indicating that about half of the tariff burden is passed on to consumer prices [1][10][30] Group 2 - The indirect effects of tariffs on domestic goods have shown a slowing trend, with price increases for domestic products that are similar to imported goods starting to decelerate from April onwards [1][10][35] - The correlation between tariffs and inflation increased from March to May but has not deepened further, suggesting a weakening relationship [1][10][39] - If the effective tariff rate rises to 15%, it is estimated that U.S. goods prices could increase by approximately 2.8% based on the average import dependence of 37% and a transmission coefficient of 1/2 [1][10][50] Group 3 - Service inflation has not shown a trend of significant rebound, with core service inflation being the largest contributor to nominal inflation, but expected to be dragged down by a weakening labor market [2][11][54] - The nominal Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to peak at around 3.2% in December 2025, followed by a gradual decline to approximately 2.3% by mid-2026 [2][11][70] - The overall inflation risk is expected to be lower than market expectations, indicating a potential for further monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve [2][11][73]

Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals market experienced overall fluctuations, with gold prices showing a slight decline amid cautious market sentiment ahead of key geopolitical meetings and the upcoming Jackson Hole central bank conference [2][3]. Market Analysis - As of the close on August 18, 2025 December gold futures fell by $3.7 to $3378 per ounce, marking a decrease of 0.11%. During the trading session, gold prices briefly reached the $3400 mark [2][3]. - The market is closely monitoring the bilateral meeting between the U.S. and Ukraine, as well as the Jackson Hole conference where Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to speak. There is a prevailing cautious sentiment, leading to a lack of clear upward or downward drivers for gold prices in the short term [3][4]. - Current expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy indicate a high probability of a rate cut in September, with a 16.9% chance of maintaining rates and an 83.1% chance of a 25 basis point cut. Some analysts suggest that there is speculation about a potential 50 basis point cut, which could significantly boost gold prices if realized [3][4]. Silver Market - The September silver futures price closed up by 4.5 cents at $38.065 per ounce, reflecting a 0.12% increase. The December silver futures price also rose by 4 cents to $38.560 per ounce, with a 0.1% increase [4].

Core Insights - JPMorgan warns that U.S. inflation is proving to be more stubborn than expected, with multiple alternative inflation indicators suggesting that the disinflation process has stalled and core inflation is accelerating again [1][9] - The market's optimistic interpretation of the July CPI report may be misplaced, as various underlying inflation metrics indicate that inflation has not continued to decline and core inflation's sticky components are re-accelerating [1][5] Inflation Indicators - According to the Atlanta Fed, the sticky components of the traditional core CPI are slightly above pre-pandemic averages and have recently accelerated [2] - The Cleveland Fed's trimmed mean and median inflation indicators provide a more reliable assessment of inflation trends, with the trimmed mean inflation rebounding from 3.0% in April to 3.2% in July, and median inflation rising from a pre-pandemic average of 2.6% to the current 3.6% [5][8] Monetary Policy Challenges - The current inflation landscape presents complex challenges for Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions, as multiple alternative core indicators show inflation remains significantly above the Fed's 2% target and may continue to rise [9] - Unless an economic recession occurs, inflation is likely to remain sticky at levels that do not support more aggressive easing policies from the Fed, casting doubt on market expectations for rapid rate cuts [1][9]

Core Insights - The latest non-farm payroll data significantly impacts the U.S. economy, influencing stock markets, gold, and silver prices [1][3][4] - Strong non-farm data may lead to accelerated interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, increasing borrowing costs for companies and potentially pressuring the stock market [1][4] - Conversely, weak non-farm data could ease rate hike pressures, providing support for the stock market [1][4] Impact on Financial Markets - Non-farm data directly affects the U.S. dollar's exchange rate, which in turn influences gold and silver prices [3][4] - Strong non-farm data typically reduces demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to price declines, while weak data increases demand and drives prices up [3][4] - Silver prices are influenced by both safe-haven demand and industrial usage, making them sensitive to economic conditions reflected in non-farm data [3][4] Investment Strategy Considerations - Investors should analyze non-farm data in conjunction with economic outlook, monetary policy, and market sentiment to formulate effective investment strategies [4] - In the current economic landscape, both gold and silver markets present opportunities and risks, necessitating cautious monitoring of market dynamics [4]

Group 1: Market Style Divergence - The current market style divergence is primarily driven by macroeconomic conditions and policy direction, with high dividend sectors like banks and utilities becoming attractive in a declining risk-free interest rate environment [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index has seen a year-to-date increase of over 20%, driven by new AI regulations and the accelerated return of Chinese concept stocks [1] Group 2: Impact of Fiscal and Monetary Policies on A-shares - The combination of proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy has positively influenced the overall valuation and capital flow in A-shares, enhancing investor confidence and increasing the activity of leveraged funds [2] - Industries such as photovoltaics and AI have notably benefited from improved corporate profit expectations due to lower financing costs [2] Group 3: Long-term Market Sentiment from Real Estate and Exports - The stabilization of the real estate market positively impacts stock market sentiment, particularly benefiting banks, home appliances, and building materials sectors [3] - Strong export growth to ASEAN and Africa provides robust support for overall export data, despite uncertainties from US-China trade tensions [3] Group 4: Key Macroeconomic Variables for Growth and Value Style Divergence - Key macroeconomic variables influencing the divergence between growth and value styles include economic growth trends, interest rate changes, policy direction, inflation pressures, and global macro factors like Federal Reserve monetary policy [4] - A stable economic growth phase tends to expand demand in technology innovation sectors, boosting growth stock performance [4] Group 5: Investment Logic of Indices - The CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index is designed to provide continuous cash flow returns with lower volatility, making it suitable for investors seeking stable cash flow [5] - The SSE Sci-Tech Innovation 100 Index focuses on mid-cap hard tech companies, emphasizing sectors like semiconductors and biomedicine, appealing to investors optimistic about domestic technology replacement trends [5] Group 6: Industry Distribution of CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index - The index exhibits a "financial dominance + cyclical support" structure, with approximately 25% in industrials, over 22% in financials, and around 13% in materials [6] - This diversified design retains the advantages of industry dispersion while focusing on high dividend core sectors [6] Group 7: Dividend Asset Yield Advantage - In the current market environment, allocating to dividend low volatility index funds remains a favorable choice, especially as market volatility increases [7] - The supportive policies for dividend assets, such as the new "National Nine Articles" encouraging cash dividends from listed companies, enhance the long-term allocation value of dividend assets [7] Group 8: Core Competitiveness and Growth Potential of SSE Sci-Tech Innovation 100 Index - The core competitiveness of the SSE Sci-Tech Innovation 100 Index lies in its high R&D intensity and balanced coverage of key technology sectors, supported by policy incentives [8] - The index's average R&D intensity exceeds the average of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, covering critical areas like semiconductors and renewable energy [8] Group 9: Participation Methods for Ordinary Investors - Ordinary investors can participate in the CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index and SSE Sci-Tech Innovation 100 Index through ETFs or ETF-linked funds, with options tailored for different investment strategies [9] - Specific funds like Bosera CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 ETF and Bosera SSE Sci-Tech Innovation 100 ETF are suitable for investors familiar with market trading rules [9]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices faced a decline due to reduced risk appetite following comments from Putin about a potential new arms agreement with the U.S. and a significant increase in the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July, which raised concerns about inflation and diminished expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. PPI for July increased by 0.9%, marking the largest rise in three years, which has led to heightened market concerns regarding inflation pressures [2]. - Following the PPI data release, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September dropped to 89.1% from approximately 95% prior to the announcement, indicating a shift in market sentiment [2]. Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices opened the week at $3,398.34 per ounce, reached a weekly high of $3,404.51, but subsequently fell over 1.6%, closing at $3,336.11, reflecting a total weekly decline of $62.23 or 1.83% [3]. - The fluctuations in gold prices suggest that the market is sensitive to changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations, with geopolitical uncertainties typically driving demand for gold [2].

Inflation Trends - The effective tariff rate for U.S. imports rose to 9.1% as of June 2025, with a cumulative increase of 6.9 percentage points since the beginning of the year[5] - Tariffs are expected to lead to an approximate 2.8% increase in U.S. goods prices based on a thumb rule calculation[40] - Core goods inflation is primarily driven by high import dependency and low inventory levels, particularly in categories like furniture and apparel[20] Economic Implications - The direct impact of tariffs results in about 50% of the tariff increase being passed on to consumer prices[24] - The indirect impact on domestic goods prices has shown signs of slowing, indicating limited transmission of tariff effects to local products[27] - Despite a rebound in goods inflation, core service inflation remains the largest contributor to nominal inflation, with a contribution of 82% to the CPI growth in June 2025[47] Future Projections - Inflation is expected to continue rebounding in the second half of 2025, with a peak CPI growth rate of approximately 3.2% by December 2025, followed by a decline to around 2.3% by mid-2026[56] - The market's consensus on inflation risks appears to be overestimated, particularly for mid-term projections, suggesting potential for further easing in monetary policy[61] - Political pressures may further influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, potentially leading to increased easing in 2026[64]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole conference is anticipated to provide critical insights into the future path of U.S. monetary policy, amidst significant political pressure and economic challenges [1][3]. Group 1: Market Expectations - Investors are widely expecting a rate cut from the Federal Reserve in the coming weeks, which has driven stock markets, particularly interest-sensitive sectors, to historical highs [1]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting is over 92%, with expectations for at least one more cut within the year [2]. Group 2: Economic Challenges - Powell faces a complex economic situation, balancing rising inflation due to tariff policies against signs of a cooling labor market and risks of economic slowdown [1][3]. - Recent economic data shows persistent inflation pressures, with the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 0.3% month-over-month in July, the largest increase since January, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) surging 0.9%, the highest monthly increase in over three years [5]. Group 3: Political Pressure - The Trump administration has intensified its criticism of Powell for not cutting rates quickly enough, creating a challenging environment for the Fed's decision-making [2][3]. - Historical precedents of political interference in monetary policy, such as during the Nixon administration, highlight the potential risks of maintaining low rates in the face of rising inflation [3]. Group 4: Fed's Independence - Powell's upcoming speech is expected to focus on the Fed's monetary policy framework review, which is crucial for maintaining the central bank's long-term independence [6][7]. - Adjustments to the policy framework may establish guiding principles that extend beyond Powell's tenure, addressing how to respond to supply shocks and balancing full employment with price stability [6].

1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The platinum - group metals market was previously trading on US tariff risks, with CME platinum and palladium inventories increasing significantly. As tariff trading receded and US inflation data exceeded expectations, market expectations for the Fed's interest - rate cuts declined, putting pressure on platinum - group metal prices. - Before the Fed's monetary policy shows a clear dovish turn, platinum - group metal prices are expected to remain weak. It is recommended to wait and see for now and wait for Fed Chairman Powell's statement at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium. If there is a clear dovish stance, one can consider buying on dips at support levels [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Platinum Key Data**: The closing price of the active NYMEX platinum contract rose 0.28% to $1345.2 per ounce; the five - day average trading volume decreased 8.21%; the open interest of the main contract increased 3.23%; the NYMEX platinum inventory increased 6.87%; the net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 503 lots; the net short position of CFTC commercial decreased by 60 lots; the platinum ETF holdings decreased 0.14% [9]. - **Palladium Key Data**: The closing price of the active NYMEX palladium contract fell 1.85% to $1116 per ounce; the five - day average trading volume decreased 18.36%; the open interest of the main contract decreased 14.53%; the NYMEX palladium inventory increased 13.28%; the net short position of CFTC managed funds increased by 2219 lots; the net short position of CFTC commercial decreased by 482 lots; the palladium ETF holdings decreased 0.23% [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The NYMEX platinum price is approaching the upward trend line, and attention should be paid to its reaction around the trend line. The NYMEX palladium price is at the trend - line support, and whether it can stabilize and rebound around the trend line needs attention [13][16]. 3.2 Market Review - **Platinum Price**: The NYMEX platinum main contract rose 0.28% to $1345.2 per ounce, and the open interest increased 1179 lots to 81726 lots. The Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price rose 2.52% to 323.8 yuan per gram, and the internal - external price difference rebounded. The one - month implied lease rate of platinum dropped to 14.65%, and the overseas spot shortage eased. As of August 12, the net long position of NYMEX platinum managed funds increased by 503 lots to 12689 lots [21][27][31][36]. - **Palladium Price**: The NYMEX palladium main contract fell 1.85% to $1116 per ounce, and the open interest increased 1148 lots to 20191 lots. As of August 12, the net short position of NYMEX palladium managed funds was 4896 lots [24][39]. 3.3 Inventory and ETF Holdings Changes - **Platinum**: As of August 15, the total platinum ETF holdings were 74.6 tons. The CME platinum inventory increased 1007 kg to 18.1 tons, with registered inventory decreasing and unregistered inventory increasing [50][57]. - **Palladium**: As of August 15, the total palladium ETF holdings were 13.21 tons. The CME palladium inventory increased 464.7 kg to 3963.9 kg, with both registered and unregistered inventories increasing [53][62]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Platinum Supply**: The 2025 annual output of the top 15 platinum mines is expected to be 127.47 tons, a 1.9% decrease compared to 2024, indicating a contraction in mine - end supply [68]. - **Palladium Supply**: The 2025 annual output of the top 15 palladium mines is expected to be 165.78 tons, a 0.86% decrease compared to 2024, showing a slight contraction [71]. - **Chinese Imports**: China's platinum imports in June were 11.79 tons, a decline from May; palladium imports in June were 2.34 tons, an increase from May [74][77]. - **Automobile Production**: Data on automobile production in China, Japan, Germany, and the US are provided, but no specific supply - demand conclusions are drawn from these data in the report. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The global platinum supply - demand balance in 2025F shows a deficit of 14.29 tons, while the global palladium supply - demand balance in 2025 shows a surplus of 3.50 tons [88][89]. 3.5 Monthly and Cross - Market Spreads - **NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spreads**: Data on spreads such as 1 - 4, 4 - 7, 7 - 10, and 10 - 1 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [93][94][96][98]. - **NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spreads**: Data on spreads such as 3 - 6, 6 - 9, 9 - 12, and 12 - 3 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [100][102][104][105]. - **London Spot - NYMEX Spreads**: Data on the spreads between London spot platinum and NYMEX platinum, and London spot palladium and NYMEX palladium are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [107].