Morning session notice 早盘提示 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 24 日星期三 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | COMEX 黄金期货收涨 1.02%报 4515 美元/盎司，创历史新高，COMEX 白银期货收涨 | | | | | 4.44%报 71.61 美元/盎司。沪金收涨 0.42%报 1012.58 元/克，沪银涨 4.14%报 16961 | | | | | 元/千克。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 12 月 23 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日维持不变， | | | | | 持仓量为 1064.56 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日减少 | | | | | 95.88 吨， ...

有色股小幅高开，截至发稿，中国有色矿业(01258)涨3.18%，报15.27港元；五矿资源(01208)涨3.11%， 报8.94港元；中国白银集团(00815)涨2.82%，报0.73港元；江西铜业（600362）股份(00358)涨1.68%，报 37.62港元；招金矿业(01818)涨1.45%，报33.66港元。 消息面上，近期，有色金属牛市持续演绎。贵金属方面，12月24日，现货黄金史上首次站上4500美元/ 盎司，今年累计上涨超70%；现货白银涨则突破70美元/盎司关口，续创历史新高；现货铂金、现货钯 金也涨势强劲。此外，LME铜盘中突破12000美元/吨，为该期货历史首次。 对于这一轮有色金属价格强势上行的原因，中信建投（601066）研报指出，主要是美国11月CPI超预期 降温，令市场对美联储2026年降息幅度有所上修。黄金、白银、铂钯等贵金属价格走强，锡、铜、铝等 工业金属亦表现强势。华龙证券指出，在地缘对抗升级、全球经济增长失速、资源民族主义抬头背景 下，有色金属景气度持续提升，主要金属品种价格持续走高。该行认为金属景气度有望维持。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in gold futures prices, driven by escalating tensions in Venezuela and market expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the coming year [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On December 23, gold futures prices surged past the $4,500 mark, reaching a peak of $4,530, marking a new historical high [1] - As of the market close, COMEX gold futures increased by 1.02% to $4,515 per ounce, while the China Gold ETF (518850) rose by 1.41% and the Gold Stock ETF (159562) gained 1.15% [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The recent week saw heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Venezuela, which enhanced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] - The U.S. has intensified pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's government by blocking oil tankers, contributing to the geopolitical uncertainty [1] - Traders are betting on the Federal Reserve's continued rate cuts, creating a low-interest-rate environment that supports precious metal prices [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - There is a consensus among institutions that gold prices are expected to continue rising, despite differences in views on the extent, timing, and target price [1] - Structural demand from global central banks is viewed as a crucial and solid support for gold prices [1] - Cyclical benefits are anticipated as the market expects the Federal Reserve to lower rates, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold [1] - Demand for gold is also driven by geopolitical uncertainties, concerns over the dollar's credibility, and the need for diversified asset allocation [1]

不断升级的地缘政治紧张局势也增强了黄金和白银的避险吸引力。美国加强了对委内瑞拉的石油封锁， 加大了对总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗政府的施压，同时乌克兰首次袭击了地中海上一艘来自俄罗斯"影子船 队"的油轮。 Pepperstone Group Ltd的策略师Dilin Wu表示："今天的上涨主要受到围绕美联储降息预期的早期仓位布 局推动，并因年底流动性稀薄而放大。"她指出，11月疲软的就业增长和(55, 0.50, 0.92%)低于预期的美 国通胀数据，支持了进一步降息的预期。 随着地缘政治紧张局势升级，以及对美联储将进一步降息的押注，黄金和白银价格飙升至历史新高，为 四十多年来最强劲的年度表现增添了动力。 黄金价格一度上涨2.4%，突破10月份创下的每盎司4，381美元的先前纪录;白银价格一度飙升3.4%，逼 近每盎司70美元大关。此举延续了火热的涨势，使得这两种金属都坚定地迈向自1979年以来最强劲的年 度表现。 最新的上涨动力来自于交易员押注美联储将在2026年进行两次降息，以及美国总统唐纳德·特朗普也倡 导更宽松的货币政策。较低的利率通常对不支付利息的贵金属有利。 投资者在黄金上涨中也扮演了重要角色，部分原因是 ...

Group 1 - The spot gold price has historically surpassed the $1,000 mark, opening at $4,444.98 per ounce and reaching $4,486.49 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 70%, the second highest since the 1979 oil crisis and high inflation period [1] - Domestic gold brands have also raised prices, with notable increases such as Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry priced at 1,403 RMB per gram, up 36 RMB from the previous day, and other brands like Lao Feng Xiang and Cai Bai also showing significant price hikes [1] - Silver prices have risen to $69.69 per ounce, equivalent to 15.75 RMB per gram, with a year-to-date increase of 139%, while platinum and palladium have reached their highest levels in nearly three years [1] Group 2 - The recent surge in precious metal prices is primarily supported by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, alongside heightened geopolitical tensions that have increased market demand for safe-haven assets [2] - Analysts from Everbright Futures note significant divisions among Federal Reserve officials regarding future interest rate cuts, with ongoing discussions about the potential new chairperson and the pace of balance sheet expansion, leading to a generally optimistic outlook for precious metals [2]

金价"狂飙"。 二是美元信用担忧与央行战略性购金。2022年俄罗斯外汇储备遭遇冻结后，黄金作为"非主权信用风险 资产"的储备价值凸显。在美国政府债务规模持续膨胀的背景下，全球央行基于外汇储备多元化和资产 安全性的长期战略，持续增持黄金并减少在伦敦等传统金融中心的托管规模，结构性购金潮为金价提供 了坚实支撑。 受国际金价大涨影响，国内首饰金价今日出现明显上涨。多家黄金品牌隔夜齐涨，每克上调35至36元， 部分饰品金价首破1400元/克，再刷国内纪录。 同日，上海黄金交易所发布《关于继续加强近期市场风险控制工作的通知》。公告指出，近期影响市场 不稳定的因素较多，贵金属价格波动剧烈。请各会员提高风险防范意识，要继续做好风险应急预案，维 护市场平稳运行。同时，提示投资者做好风险防范工作，合理控制仓位，理性投资。 对于本轮金价大涨，市场人士认为这是多重因素共振的结果。中安鼎盛投资合伙人陈伯仲分析指出， 2025年美国关税政策引发的避险情绪、全球央行持续增持黄金的趋势、美联储降息预期带来的流动性支 撑，以及资金对美国债务担忧的避险需求等多方面力量共同推动金价走高。 海通期货研究所顾佳男将今年贵金属市场的核心交易逻辑归纳为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold and silver prices is driven by a combination of factors including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical risks, and ongoing central bank purchases of gold [2][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - As of December 23, international gold prices surpassed $4500 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 70% [1]. - The COMEX gold price had been fluctuating between $4000 and $3938 per ounce for two months before breaking through historical highs on December 22 [1]. - The rise in gold prices is attributed to a threefold resonance of declining inflation, geopolitical tensions, and sustained central bank gold purchases, which have provided a solid support base for prices [2]. Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have seen a remarkable increase, with a year-to-date rise nearing 140%, and a 36.59% increase over 23 trading days since November 21 [1][3]. - The surge in silver is driven by its dual role as both a financial and industrial metal, with increasing demand from sectors like photovoltaics and low inventory levels contributing to its price rise [3]. - The London Bullion Market Association's deliverable inventory has reached a ten-year low, leading to a structural crisis in supply that has further fueled price increases [3]. Group 3: Gold-Silver Ratio and Investment Opportunities - The gold-silver ratio, which historically ranges between 40:1 and 60:1, has recently surged to over 85:1 due to a significant influx of safe-haven funds into gold, resulting in silver being undervalued [3][4]. - If the gold-silver ratio returns to its historical mean of 50:1, silver could see substantial price increases, with potential gains of approximately 11% to 25% depending on gold price movements [4]. - The gold-silver ratio remains a useful tool for assessing relative valuations and investment strategies, although it should be used in conjunction with macroeconomic conditions and industry fundamentals [4].

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold has surged significantly, reaching historical highs, driven by multiple macroeconomic and geopolitical factors [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movement - On December 22, gold prices increased by nearly 1.5%, surpassing $4,400 per ounce, and on December 23, it reached $4,500 per ounce [1]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have risen over 67%, with other precious metals like silver and platinum also showing strong performance, some exceeding 100% cumulative gains [1]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The weakening of the US dollar is a direct catalyst for gold's rise, as gold typically has an inverse relationship with the dollar [1]. - Continued expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve contribute to the bullish outlook for gold [1]. - The renewed focus on gold's anti-inflation and value preservation properties is driven by significant fiscal imbalances in the US and Europe, raising concerns about long-term inflation [1]. - Heightened geopolitical tensions have increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, further pushing prices up, alongside increased purchases by global central banks [2]. Group 3: Future Predictions - The World Gold Council predicts moderate price increases if global economic slowdown and interest rate declines occur, with potential for a 15%-30% rise by 2026 in the event of a "black swan" event [2]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its 2025 gold price target to $4,800, citing expanding US fiscal deficits and declining dollar credibility [2]. - UBS has a more aggressive forecast, predicting gold prices could reach between $5,000 and $5,500 by 2026, emphasizing gold's role in hedging against "de-globalization" risks [2]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - For long-term strategic investors (holding over 3 years), maintaining a certain allocation to gold is advisable as it serves as a stabilizing asset in investment portfolios [3]. - Trend traders (holding under 3 months) may consider selling in increments to lock in profits [3]. - New investors are encouraged to adopt a dollar-cost averaging approach rather than attempting to time the market [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that gold prices have reached historical highs, with several jewelry brands increasing their gold prices above 1400 yuan per gram [1][4][7] - Major brands such as Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang have set their gold prices at 1403 yuan per gram, while Lao Miao Gold is at 1402 yuan per gram, and other brands like Liufuk Jewelry and King Precious are at 1401 yuan per gram [1][2] - The price of platinum has also risen, with 950 platinum jewelry priced at 861 yuan per gram as of December 23 [4] Group 2 - The surge in gold prices is attributed to rising market expectations for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 2026, along with continuous net inflows into global physical gold ETFs [7] - A report from GF Securities indicates that weakening U.S. real interest rates and dollar index expectations are driving gold prices higher, with a potential for gold companies' performance to improve significantly in 2026 [7] - The World Gold Council's December report forecasts that gold prices may increase by 15% to 30% next year due to factors such as declining U.S. Treasury yields, escalating geopolitical tensions, and heightened risk aversion [7]

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold has surged dramatically, reaching historical highs, driven by multiple macroeconomic factors and geopolitical tensions [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movement - On December 22, gold prices increased by nearly 1.5%, surpassing $4,400 per ounce, and on December 23, it reached $4,500 per ounce [1]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have risen over 67%, with other precious metals like silver and platinum also showing significant gains, some exceeding 100% [1]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The weakening of the US dollar is a direct catalyst for gold's rise, as there is an inherent inverse relationship between gold and the dollar [2]. - Continuous expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve contribute to the upward pressure on gold prices [2]. - The renewed focus on gold's anti-inflation and value preservation properties is significant, especially amid concerns over fiscal imbalances in the US and Europe [2]. - Increased geopolitical tensions have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, further driving up prices, alongside a collective increase in gold purchases by global central banks [2]. Group 3: Future Price Predictions - The World Gold Council predicts moderate price increases if global economic slowdown and interest rate declines occur, with potential for a 15%-30% rise by 2026, possibly exceeding $5,000 [2]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its 2025 gold price target to $4,800, citing expanding US fiscal deficits and declining dollar credibility [2]. - UBS has the most aggressive forecast, predicting gold prices could reach between $5,000 and $5,500 by 2026, emphasizing gold's role in hedging against "de-globalization" risks [2]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Long-term strategic investors (holding over 3 years) are advised to maintain a certain allocation to gold as a stabilizing asset in their portfolios [3]. - Trend traders (holding under 3 months) may consider selling in increments to lock in profits [3]. - New investors are recommended to adopt a dollar-cost averaging approach instead of attempting to time the market, to avoid the pitfalls of chasing prices [3].