投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【有色金属周报】 市场风险偏好向好，有色板块明显走高 国贸期货 有色金属研究中心 2025-12-08 分析师：方富强 从业资格证号：F3043701 投资咨询证号：Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 从业资格证号：F3040017 投资咨询证号：Z0015788 助理分析师：林静妍 从业资格证号：F03131200 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 有色金属价格监测 02 铜（CU） 03 锌（ZN） 04 镍（NI） 不锈钢（SS) 01 PART ONE 有色金属价格监测 有色金属价格监测 有色金属收盘价格监控 | 有色金属价格监测 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 有色金属收盘价格监控 | | | | | | | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 年涨跌幅 | 品 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the non-ferrous metals industry, particularly highlighting investment opportunities in the rare earth sector due to recent export license approvals for leading companies [1][44]. Core Insights - The Chinese government is implementing export controls on rare earth materials, but compliant applications for civilian use are being approved promptly, which is expected to streamline export processes and boost demand recovery in the rare earth permanent magnet industry [1][44]. - The U.S. private sector experienced a significant job loss in November, which may influence Federal Reserve policies, with a high probability of interest rate cuts anticipated [2][17]. - Production at the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo is projected to be lower than 2024 levels due to operational challenges, with expected output between 380,000 to 420,000 tons in 2026 [3][18]. - Indian companies Adani and Hindalco are exploring investment opportunities in Peru's copper sector, driven by increasing demand, as Peru is the world's third-largest copper producer [4][19]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the market with a weekly increase of 5.35%, significantly surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.98 percentage points [10][11]. Metal Prices and Inventory Changes - Copper prices on the LME reached $11,665 per ton, up 4.38% week-on-week, while SHFE copper prices increased to ¥92,780 per ton, up 6.12% [21]. - LME copper inventory rose by 1.96% to 162,550 tons, while SHFE inventory decreased by 9.22% to 88,905 tons [23]. Strategic Metals - The average price of praseodymium oxide increased by 2.88% to ¥597,000 per ton, reflecting a tightening supply in the antimony market, which has seen a price rebound after a prolonged decline [43][44]. Key Company Tracking - Recommendations include companies with integrated operations in the aluminum sector, such as China Hongqiao, and copper-focused firms like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [53][54].

a Begon 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/12/8 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | 人业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2512 | AG2512 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 银15点价 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格龈踪 | 2025/12/5 | 4226. 76 | 58. 32 | 4257.00 | 58.91 | 957. 54 | 13669.00 | 955. 50 | 13663.00 | | (本表数 | | | | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to a combination of internal and external factors, indicating a potential shift towards a stronger currency era for China [1][3]. Group 1: External Factors - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has created a favorable environment for the RMB, as recent US employment data has shown a weaker job market, increasing speculation about future rate reductions [3]. - Potential new leadership at the Federal Reserve advocating for monetary easing could lower the federal funds rate from 3.75-4% to below 3%, which would further weaken the US dollar and allow for appreciation of non-USD currencies [3]. Group 2: Internal Factors - The improvement in trade relations, particularly the easing of tariffs on Chinese exports to the US, has significantly alleviated export pressures, especially following a new trade agreement reached in late October [5]. - The People's Bank of China has strategically reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds and ensured sufficient dollar reserves for corporate settlement needs, while domestic companies continue to repatriate earnings from overseas operations, addressing foreign exchange concerns [5][7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The strong performance of the A-share market has attracted substantial foreign capital inflows, increasing demand for the RMB. The central bank's guidance through the midpoint rate and corporate currency settlement practices have amplified the appreciation momentum [7]. - The competitive landscape of manufacturing has shifted from solely relying on labor cost advantages to a focus on comprehensive cost advantages, which China excels at, thereby reducing concerns about the impact of RMB appreciation on exports [9]. Group 4: Export Trends - China's export structure is evolving, with a significant increase in high-value products such as electric vehicles and industrial robots, leading to a reduced sensitivity of exports to exchange rate fluctuations [11]. - The transition from low-cost goods to high-end manufacturing enhances China's bargaining power in global supply chains, further solidifying the RMB's position [11][14]. Group 5: Long-term Support for RMB - The long-term strength of the RMB is supported by China's unique industrial independence, allowing it to avoid reliance on external supplies in most sectors, which is rare globally [13]. - As domestic consumption and industrial upgrades progress, the RMB's global demand is expected to rise, particularly if cross-border transactions increasingly utilize the RMB, thereby enhancing its international recognition [16].

美元在近期的宏观预期调整中短线承压，而地缘不确定性的存在，使避险需求仍保持在相对稳健的水 平。在通胀仍高于目标区间的情况下，就业指标的持续降温强化了市场对宽松路径的理解。利率若下 调，将重新压低持有黄金的成本，使 XAU/USD 在高位区间的震荡结构更具韧性。 根据 CME FedWatch 的最新显示，投资者对本周降息 25 个基点的预计已升至约 87%–90%。摩根士丹利 也重新回到此前的判断，认为联储有望在 12 月 9—10 日会议后将利率下调至 3.75%–4.00% 区间。近期 两周连续走弱的就业指标，使"提前稳增长"的思路更易获得市场接受。尽管密歇根消费者信心指数小幅 反弹至 53.3，但并未改变投资者对经济动能偏弱的整体认知。 在央行持续买金的大环境下，中国央行公布的最新储备数据成为金价另一项重要支撑。11 月新增 3 万 盎司，使官方黄金储备增至 7412 万盎司，实现连续 13 个月增长。同月外汇储备规模亦小幅上行至 3.346 万亿美元。持续的增持行为，在美元震荡偏弱的大背景中，被市场视作稳定资产配置的信号，也 为黄金中长期走势提供结构性支撑。 虽然金价保持攀升，但 4200—4250 ...

Market Overview - The US ADP employment and PMI data for November were both below expectations, with PMI at 48.2 (expected 49) and ADP employment decreasing by 32,000 (expected an increase of 10,000), reinforcing the Fed's rate cut expectations[3] - The 10Y US Treasury yield rose to 4.14%, up 12 basis points, while the US dollar index fell by 0.46% to 99.0, indicating a continued weak dollar environment[3][9] - Most global equity indices rose, with the Korean Composite Stock Price Index leading the gains, while the Brazilian stock market saw significant declines[3][8] Fund Flows - Both domestic and foreign capital flowed out of the Chinese equity market, with foreign capital exiting by $5.02 million and domestic capital by $20.15 million in the past week[3][15] - Global money market funds saw inflows of $1,123.3 million, while US equity funds experienced inflows of $16.3 million, contrasting with a $25.2 million outflow from Chinese equity funds[15][16] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index's valuation percentile is at 84.3%, second only to the S&P 500 and CAC 40, but remains significantly lower than US equities in absolute PE terms[3][14] - The risk-adjusted return percentile for the Shanghai Composite has decreased from 88% to 80%, indicating a decline in relative performance[3] Risk Sentiment - The implied volatility for the Shanghai Composite options has shown a significant increase, reflecting greater market uncertainty and diverging views on price levels[3][6] - The S&P 500 closed at 6,870.40, remaining above the 20-day moving average, with a put-call ratio of 1.07, indicating stable market sentiment[3][6] Economic Data - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December is at 86.20%, with a 90.20% chance of rates falling to 3.5%-3.75% by January 2026, suggesting a high likelihood of further easing[3][6]

摘要今日周五(12月5日)亚盘时段，黄金t+d(上海黄金现货品种)当前报价951.78元/克，盘中正常交易。 较昨日收盘价下跌1.28元，跌幅0.13%；日内最高触及961.29元/克，最低下探至949.8元/克，今日开盘价 为955.03元/克。 今日周五(12月5日)亚盘时段，黄金t+d当前报价951.78元/克，盘中正常交易。较昨日收盘价下跌1.28 元，跌幅0.13%；日内最高触及961.29元/克，最低下探至949.8元/克，今日开盘价为955.03元/克。 【要闻速递】 资金流向分化显著，多空激战正酣：资金层面呈现主权资金与投机资金对峙格局。主权资金坚定增持， 为金价提供坚实支撑；而短线投机资金则在高位撤退，全球最大对冲基金桥水已清仓黄金持仓，黄金 ETF-SPDR亦出现1.71吨净减持。同时，伦敦金未平仓合约攀升至45万手，处于高位博弈状态。这种资 金结构的分化，使得黄金市场波动风险进一步加剧。 【最新黄金t+d行情解析】 黄金t+d当前围绕951.78元/克窄幅波动，较昨收跌0.13%，日内高低点分别为961.29元与949.8元，呈冲高 回落格局。日线暂守于950元心理关口之上，但未能延续反 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][55]. Core Viewpoints - Precious Metals - Gold: Strong expectations for interest rate cuts have led to a fluctuating increase in gold prices. As of December 5, the COMEX gold futures contract reached $4227.7 per ounce, a decrease of 0.67% month-on-month. The SPDR Gold ETF increased by 0.5% to 1050 tons. The U.S. manufacturing PMI for October was 48.7, down 0.4 percentage points month-on-month. In the short term, gold prices may remain volatile due to unclear expectations, but in the long term, the ongoing U.S. debt issues and weakening dollar credit are expected to support higher gold prices [3][4]. - Industrial Metals: The spot market fundamentals are tightening rapidly, with a positive outlook for copper prices. As of December 5, the SHFE copper futures contract rose by 6.1% to 92,780 yuan per ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 159,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons month-on-month. The LME copper inventory stood at 163,000 tons. The increase in LME canceled warrants suggests a significant rise in future outflows, indicating a tightening supply situation [5][6]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to rise due to macroeconomic uncertainties and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. The long-term outlook remains positive, particularly with the weakening dollar credit narrative [3][6]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: The tightening supply and increasing demand from domestic and emerging markets are expected to drive copper prices higher. The current market conditions suggest a mid-term upward revaluation of copper prices [5][6]. - **Aluminum**: As of December 5, LME aluminum prices increased by 1.2% to $2900.5 per ton. The domestic aluminum social inventory remained stable at 596,000 tons. The macroeconomic environment is expected to support aluminum prices, which are likely to remain high [5][6]. - **Tin**: The SHFE tin futures contract rose by 4.1% to 317,500 yuan per ton. Supply concerns due to geopolitical issues in the Congo and regulatory tightening in Indonesia are expected to keep tin prices on an upward trend [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the following sectors: - **Gold**: Continued macroeconomic uncertainty supports gold's safe-haven appeal. Recommended stock: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining. - **Copper**: Increasing domestic demand and tightening supply conditions suggest a positive outlook. Recommended stock: Luoyang Molybdenum. - **Aluminum**: The supply-demand dynamics favor rising aluminum prices. Recommended stock: Tianshan Aluminum [6][51].

12月7日公布的官方数据显示，我国11月末黄金储备报7412万盎司。这一数据环比增加3万盎司，系连续第13个月增持。现货金价目前在4200美元附近维持震 荡态势。美元指数近期出现小幅反弹，对金价上行形成限制。市场整体呈现出区间波动的特征。 外汇储备规模受估值影响回升 国家外汇管理局统计显示，11月末外汇储备规模为33464亿美元。该数值较10月末上升30亿美元，升幅为0.09%。汇率折算与资产价格变化共同推动了规模 回升。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青指出，11月"美元指数小幅下跌0.3%"，带动非美资产升值。美联储降息预期升温导致美债收益率下行。美债价格走高也 增加了外储月末估值。 央行购金策略显现优化迹象 央行增持黄金的节奏在近期呈现放缓态势。11月增持量与上月持平，均为3万盎司。这一增持规模处于2024年11月恢复增持以来的最低水平。中银证券全球 首席经济学家管涛曾测算认为，中国在增持过程中更加注意"逢低买入而不是追高"。 对于官方储备结构的调整逻辑，王青分析称，央行持续小幅增持"释放了优化国际储备的信号"。目前黄金储备占比为8.0%，仍低于全球平均水平。国家金融 与发展实验室特聘高级研究员庞溟认为，央行在 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel, currently possibly at the end of the trend, and it's recommended to wait and see [7][8] - The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is in a strong upward phase, currently at the end of the trend, and it's recommended to wait and see [30][31] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The Shanghai gold futures contract 2602 oscillated and consolidated this week, supported by the strengthened expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest - rate cut and the weakening US dollar, with prices fluctuating between 953 - 968 yuan. Although the decline in open interest shows short - term capital caution, the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. The market should focus on the Federal Reserve's December interest - rate meeting and inflation data. If clear easing signals are released, the gold price may break through the upper limit of the range. In the long - term, central bank gold purchases and hedging demand will still provide allocation support. It's recommended to wait and see [7][8] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategies - **Last week's strategy review**: The Shanghai gold contract 2602 may continue to oscillate at high levels in the short term, with an upper pressure level of 960 - 970 yuan/gram and a lower support level of 930 - 940 yuan/gram. It was recommended to wait and see [10] - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The Shanghai gold contract 2602 may continue to oscillate at high levels in the short term, with an upper pressure level of 960 - 970 yuan/gram and a lower support level of 920 - 930 yuan/gram. It's recommended to wait and see [11] 3.3 Relevant Data Situations - The report presents multiple data charts, including the price trends of Shanghai gold and COMEX gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury bond yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][20][22] Silver Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Shanghai silver futures are in a strong upward phase, currently at the end of the trend. Last week, the silver price entered a high - level oscillation. Strengthened expectations of the Federal Reserve's December interest - rate cut and the weakening US dollar provided a valuation basis. In the short term, after reaching a new high, technical correction pressure and long - position profit - taking led to increased volatility, and correction risks should be watched out for. In the medium term, the global supply - demand structural gap and industrial demand growth will still provide a basis for its bull market pattern. It's recommended to wait and see [30][31] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategies - **Last week's strategy review**: The silver contract 2602 strengthened in the short - term oscillation, with an upper pressure level of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/kg and a lower support level of 11,500 - 12,000 yuan/kg. It was recommended to buy on dips [34] - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The silver contract 2602 strengthens in the short - term oscillation, with an upper pressure level of 13,500 - 14,000 yuan/kg and a lower support level of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/kg. It's recommended to buy on dips [35] 3.3 Relevant Data Situations - The report presents multiple data charts, including the price trends of Shanghai silver and COMEX silver, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [43][45][47]