Group 1 - The core point of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing a downward trend due to improved global trade tensions, particularly between the US and China, which has boosted market risk appetite [1][3][5] - Gold prices opened lower this week, with a significant drop of 50 points, and are currently trading below key resistance levels, indicating a bearish market sentiment [3][5] - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to profit-taking by investors after previous gains, alongside negative technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) signaling bearish momentum [1][3][5] Group 2 - The analysis suggests that if gold prices break below the support level of 3200, further declines could occur, potentially targeting the 2909 level [3][5] - The market is currently in a corrective phase, with the previous bullish trend line broken, leading to increased downward pressure on gold prices [3][5][7] - The articles emphasize the importance of monitoring upcoming economic data, such as the US PPI and retail sales, which could influence market sentiment and gold prices [1][3]

投资咨询系列报告 | 原油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 较上日 较上周 | 单位 | 5月14日 | | | | | | | 绝对值 百分比 绝对值 百分比 | | | | | | | | 原油期货 | Sc | 元/桶 | 479.30 | 8.80 | 1.87% | 11.10 | 2.37% | | | WTI | 美元/桶 | 62.89 | -0.74 | -1.16% | 4.94 | 8.52% | | | Brent | 美元/桶 | 65.85 | -0.75 | -1.13% | 4.90 | 8.04% | | 内外价差 | Sc-WTI | 美元/桶 | 3.72 | 1.99 | 115.61% | -3.35 | -47.41% | | | Sc-Brent | 美元/桶 | 0.76 | 2.00 | -161.08% | -3.31 | -81.34% | | | Brent-WTI Sc_C1-C2 | 美元/桶 元/桶 | 2.96 7.30 | ...

周三（5月14日）欧盘时段，美元指数（DXY）盘中跌至100.58，下跌0.40%。这一下跌加深了从 101.302阻力位和下行的50日移动平均线101.900开始的两日回调趋势。市场动能显示，美元指数可能测 试下一个技术目标，短期50%回撤位附近的99.391。 美元指数未能守住本周突破101.316斐波那契水平的涨势，这一水平是104.710至97.923（3月至4月）跌 幅的50%回撤位。这种突破后反转的走势通常被视为"多头陷阱"，是看跌信号。 目前，美元指数有较大可能跌破100.00这一重要的心理关口。此前，投机性美元空头头寸一直较为坚 定。 德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）分析师表示，与关税相关的通胀压力尚未显现，4月数据影响温和。他们 预计，到6月，消费者价格将出现更显著的影响，尤其是近期贸易协议和90天关税暂缓措施推迟了通胀 影响的显现。 交易员预计，到年底美联储将累计降息53个基点（可能从9月开始），美元指数面临进一步下跌的风 险。周四的美国零售销售数据、生产者价格指数（PPI）以及美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话，将对短期走势 至关重要。若无法收复101.30水平，美元指数可能进一步回撤至99 ...

今年最热门交易遭遇"寒流"。 周三，国际金价进一步下挫，因市场对贸易协议的乐观情绪日益高涨，这很大程度上缓解了更深层次经济的担 忧，抵消了提振避险需求的因素。纽约商品交易所3个月期金时隔一个月再次失守3200美元关口。 截至收盘，金价已从上个月的3500美元高点下跌了9%。 中国4月黄金交易热潮 世界黄金协会14日更新报告显示，4月全球实物黄金ETF强势流入约110亿美元，在金价上涨和基金持续流入的 双重推动下，全球黄金ETF资产管理总规模4月末达3790亿美元。亚洲地区4月大幅流入约73亿美元，流入创新 高，为历年之最。中国市场作为主要驱动力，不仅连续第三个月实现流入，更是刷新了该区域的单月流入量纪 录。 报告称，4月中国黄金ETF增加了490亿元人民币，是有史以来最强劲的月份。总资产管理规模（AUM）和持仓 量均飙升峰值。但值得注意的是，5月初流入量有所放缓。 在高涨的需求推动下，上月上海黄金交易所实物交割153吨黄金，同比增长27%。批发黄金需求的改善也反映在 黄金价格溢价的上升上，4月份的平均溢价为37美元/盎司，远高于3月份的2美元/盎司。 展望未来，世界黄金协会称，劳动节假期后中国黄金首饰的消费量 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Federal Reserve is currently in a wait-and-see mode, awaiting more information to make informed decisions regarding interest rates and inflation trends [1][2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, which was below market expectations of 2.4% [1] - Federal Reserve officials, including Goolsbee, suggest that the current inflation data may not provide significant signals for policy changes, emphasizing the need for a longer-term perspective on inflation trends [1][2] Group 2 - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by 54 basis points by the end of the year, with the next potential cut anticipated in September [2] - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies is expected to persist, impacting economic growth and leading to a potential stagflation scenario in the U.S., while other international markets may experience different trends [2] - Investment strategies are shifting, with increased allocations to international markets outside the U.S., such as Europe and emerging markets, while reducing exposure to U.S. equities and government bonds [2]

黄金多空拉锯战况火热！美联储降息预期影响下，会否出现新拐点？阿汤哥正在实时分析，点击观看 相关链接 黄金行情分析中 ...

从结构上看，大金融是市场上涨的主力，航运物流则因经贸利好继续上涨。那么，大金融上涨究竟是何 缘故？与公募新规可能存在一定关联。国金证券认为，公募基金新规也有望驱动资金流向券商板块。 沪指站上3400点 | 综合看盘 | 数据看盘 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 涨幅 | 总手 | 金额 | 开盘 | | 上证指数 | 3403.95 | +29.08 | 40.86% | 4.65 Z | 5349 Z | 3374.24 | | 深证成指 | 10354.22 | +66.14 | +0.64% | 6.23 乙 | 7819 Z | 10278.91 | | 北证50 | 1420.93 | +15.13 | +1.08% | 15447 | 333.2 Z | 1402.73 | | 创业板指 | 2083.14 | +20.88 | +1.01% | 1.94 乙 | 3695 Z | 2062.27 | | 科创50 | 1013.77 | +4.09 | +0.41% | 486.87 ...

【消息面】 1，上一个交易日，欧盘黄金冲高3265.1美元回落，晚间美盘最低跌至3325.4美元触底反弹，笔者在文章中建议3322-3326美元做多单，黄金涨至 3257.7美元，黄金多单获利，日线收小阳线，TRIX趋势指标死叉，KDJ指标死叉，附图拐头向下，MACD指标绿色空头动能增量，日线走势依旧 是空头占优势。 2，小时图，5日10日均线向下，黄金早间从3257美元震荡下行，当前运行在3232美元附近，MACD指标快慢线在0轴附近死叉，红色多头动能缩 量，短线走势也是空头占优势。结合日线走势看，由于日线当前走势空头占主导，黄金日内操作倾向上涨做空单为主，上方关注小时图中轨3347 美元压力。 【5.14黄金交易建议】 1，黄金稳健上涨3252-3255美元附近做空单，止损3260美元，止盈看3220美元 2，建议仅供参考，投资有风险，入市需谨慎 在经历了周一的暴跌后，金价周二小幅反弹，现货黄金周二收报3249.86美元，涨幅达0.47%。逢低买盘的涌入给金价提供支撑，而且美国4月CPI 弱于市场预期，美联储降息预期降温，美元指数从一个月高位回落，地缘局势担忧等因素都给金价提供上涨动能。周三（5月14日） ...

核心CPI： 剔除食品和能源等波动性较大的项目后，核心CPI环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨2.8%，凸显出潜在的通胀压 力仍未消退。 CPI整体数据： 2025年4月13日公布的美国4月消费者物价指数（CPI）显示，通胀同比持续降温，为消费者与政策制定 者带来一定宽慰。然而，月度数据却呈现出不同的故事。 4月美国消费者物价环比上涨0.2%，扭转了3月0.1%的下跌，出乎市场预期的0.3%下降。同比来看，CPI 上涨2.3%，为自2021年初以来的最低年通胀率。 | | | Ultima Markets | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Currency | Event | | Actual | Forecast | Previous | | USD | CPI m/m | | 0.2% | -0.3% | KUNYA -D'12 | | USD | Care CPI m/m | | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | | USD | CPl y/y | | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2,4% | | USD | Core CPl y/y | | ...

Group 1: Inflation Data and Market Expectations - The April CPI data in the US unexpectedly fell below expectations, leading to strong market anticipation for a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][3] - April CPI rose by 2.3% year-on-year, marking the lowest level since February 2021, while core CPI remained at 2.8%, aligning with market expectations [1][3] - The significant drop in food prices, particularly a 13% decline in egg prices, was a key factor in lowering overall inflation levels [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Dynamics - Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials indicate a cautious approach, with a focus on maintaining high interest rates to ensure sustained inflation reduction [4] - Market expectations for a potential rate cut in September have strengthened, with a projected cumulative cut of approximately 56 basis points for the year [3][4] - The dollar index experienced fluctuations following the data release, reflecting market reactions to the changing inflation outlook [4] Group 3: Gold Market Opportunities - The combination of weak inflation data and rising rate cut expectations has positively impacted the gold market, with spot gold prices reaching recent highs [5][7] - Geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in the Middle East and ongoing issues in Ukraine, have further enhanced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [7] - The World Gold Council reported a significant inflow of 226 tons into global gold ETFs in Q1 2025, indicating strong demand, particularly from the Chinese market [7]