商 品 研 究 2025 年 06 月 26 日 铜：库存持续回落，支撑价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 【宏观及行业新闻】 宏观方面，鲍威尔国会听证次日：重申不急行动，关税史无前例，难预测对通胀影响，消费者可能要承 担部分关税，贸易协议可能让美联储考虑降息。（华尔街见闻） 微观方面，印度亿万富翁 Gautam Adani 拥有的一家新铜冶炼厂本周开始加工矿石，此前该冶炼厂项 目因原料缺乏而多次延误。（SMM） 日本 JX 金属公司（JX Advanced Metals Corp.）的发言人称，该公司将削减数万吨精炼铜产量，因 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | 沪铜主力合约 | 昨日收盘价 78,680 | 日涨幅 0.25% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 78720 | 夜盘涨幅 0.05% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | - | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,727 | 0.65% | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持 ...

2025年06月26日 | 铜：库存持续回落，支撑价格 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 铝：高位震荡 | 4 | | 氧化铝：小幅反弹 | 4 | | 铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 4 | | 锌：区间调整 | 6 | | 铅：偏强运行 | 7 | | 镍：远端镍矿端预期松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 8 | | 不锈钢：供需边际双弱，钢价低位震荡 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 06 月 26 日 铜：库存持续回落，支撑价格 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 78,680 | 0.25% | 78720 | 0.05% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,727 | 0.65% | - | ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is narrowing down candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair, indicating a potential early announcement before Powell's term ends, expressing dissatisfaction with Powell's performance [1][3]. Candidate Overview - **Kevin Warsh**: A former Fed governor and advisor to President Bush, seen as a leading candidate. Warsh has a hawkish stance, prioritizing inflation concerns over employment. He has previously discussed the possibility of being nominated by Trump [4][5]. - **Scott Bessent**: The current Treasury Secretary, favored by Wall Street for his capabilities during policy implementation. Although he aims to complete his term, he has expressed interest in potentially becoming Fed Chair [6]. - **Christopher Waller**: A current Fed governor, considered a dark horse candidate. He has gained attention for advocating immediate interest rate cuts, indicating that the successor issue is influencing Fed policy discussions [7][8][9]. Powell's Position - Jerome Powell has reiterated his commitment to fulfilling his term, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a strong U.S. economy and controlled inflation. He has declined to comment on successor rumors, asserting that political factors will not influence Fed decisions [10][11].

鲍威尔：关税为一次性影响可能成为基本预期 美联储提议放宽针对大型银行的强化补充杠杆率要求 美住房监管主管：拟将加密货币当作房贷抵押品 男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 特朗普：下周美方将与伊朗会谈，不认为核协议是有必要的 特朗普：将在三四人中选出下任美联储主席 消息人士：如果欧佩克认为有必要，俄罗斯愿意再次增产石油 英伟达市值创下历史新高，达到3.75万亿美元 香港金管局在市场买入94.20亿港元，因港元汇价触及弱方兑换保证 市场盘点 周三，因特朗普宣布下周美方将与伊朗会谈，避险情绪缓解，且市场普遍预期美联储将很快恢复其降息周期，美元指数最终收跌0.27%，报97.71点。基准的 10年期美债收益率收报4.2920%，2年期美债收益率收报3.7930%。 因市场等待美国GDP和PCE等数据，现货黄金维持震荡，盘中一度逼近3310美元，最终收涨0.30%，收报3333.46美元/盎司；现货白银最终收涨0.91%，报 36.24美元/盎司。 市场消息称，如果欧佩克+认定有必要，俄罗斯愿在即将于7月6 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：某个时候我们将会恢复降息。 ...

智通财经6月25日电，美联储主席鲍威尔称将来若达成贸易协议可能会让美联储可以考虑降息。 ...

金十数据整理：6月25日欧盘美盘重要新闻汇总 1. 李强出席2025年夏季达沃斯论坛工商界代表座谈会。 2. 何立峰在河北调研时指出，积极扩大内需提振消费，更好推动经济高质量发展。 3. 神舟二十号航天员乘组将于近日择机实施第二次出舱活动。 国内新闻： 1. 北约峰会期间特朗普会见泽连斯基。 2. 美国5月新屋销售跌至七个月低点。 3. 美股科技七巨头指数抹去2025年跌幅。 4. 以色列认为美以袭击对伊朗核设施造成"非常严重"的破坏。 5. 北约盟国同意提高国防开支目标至GDP的5%，重申集体防御承诺。 6. 美国交易所与监管机构就减轻上市公司监管负担进行讨论。 7. 美联储柯林斯：今年晚些时候可能降息，但取决于关税影响。 8. 哈塞特：若各国达成贸易协议，则可取消特朗普税收法案中的"报复税"。 国际新闻： 9. 特朗普：我们认为伊朗与以色列之间的战争已经结束。不会放弃对伊朗的制裁；没有必要与伊朗达成 协议；下周美方将与伊朗会谈。以色列-伊朗冲突可能会再次爆发。将与俄罗斯总统普京会谈，讨论结 束俄乌冲突事宜。 ...

同传直播 鲍威尔再闯国会山，是否会在降息问题上再度软化？听证会正在进行中，速来围观>> 相关链接 ...

美联储的柯林斯表示，预计今年晚些时候降息是合适的，但很大程度上取决于关税。 ...

Group 1 - The US stock market experienced significant gains, with the Nasdaq rising by 1.43%, the Dow Jones by 1.19%, and the S&P 500 by 1.11%, marking new closing highs since early March and late February respectively [5][6] - Chinese concept stocks also surged, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increasing by 3.31%, the largest single-day gain since May 13 [5] - The market sentiment was positively influenced by a rebound in the Hong Kong technology sector, which contributed to the overall bullish atmosphere [5] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent remarks were perceived as hawkish, indicating a reluctance to lower interest rates unless inflation is controlled, despite acknowledging potential price increases due to tariffs starting in June [6][7] - The A-share market also saw a rise, reaching 3400 points, with a consistent bullish outlook maintained despite previous dips below 3300 [8][9] - The government issued a document aimed at boosting consumption and financial support, which was seen as a small positive signal rather than a major catalyst for market movement [11][12] Group 3 - The 中证A500 index is highlighted as a balanced investment tool, featuring a mix of traditional and emerging industries, and has outperformed the 沪深300 index since its launch [13] - The banking sector has been a strong performer, with recommendations made for investors to consider this sector for potential gains [13][14] - The overall market environment suggests that while significant bullish trends are present, investors should be cautious about adding to positions at higher levels, particularly above 3400 points for A-shares [10][12]