Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled a potential interest rate cut in September to support a struggling labor market while preventing runaway inflation [1][2] - The current labor market is described as a "weird balance," with increasing concerns about employment prospects despite stable unemployment rates [1] - Economists believe that a 25 basis point rate cut may not drastically change the economic trajectory but could positively impact market confidence [1][2] Group 2 - Revised employment data shows that the U.S. economy has added an average of only 35,000 jobs per month since June, significantly below the projected 168,000 for 2024 [2] - The dual mandate of the Federal Reserve to control inflation and maintain a healthy job market is complicated by the White House's decision to impose tariffs on imported goods [2] - Powell's recent statements indicate a shift in focus towards urgent support for the labor market, despite previous indications to prioritize inflation control [2] Group 3 - Future interest rate cuts in 2025 and 2026 will depend on changes in the unemployment rate over the coming months [3] - Powell maintains that rate cuts are not intended to stimulate the economy, as the current interest rate range of 4.25%-4.5% remains above normal economic cycle levels [3]

Global Macro - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting indicated a dovish stance, suggesting that the risks of a downturn in the labor market outweigh the risks of rising inflation, thus opening the door for a potential rate cut in September [1] - The Fed's policy framework is shifting from an average inflation targeting (AIT) to a flexible inflation target of 2%, eliminating the concept of inflation "compensation" [1] - The labor market's downward risks and the delayed inflation effects from tariffs are expected to support the case for a rate cut in September [1][2] Kuaishou (快手) - Kuaishou's Q2 2025 total revenue increased by 13% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit reaching 5.6 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 10% due to improved gross margin and marketing expense ratio [3][5] - For Q3 2025, e-commerce GMV is expected to grow by 15%, driven by increased frequency across multiple scenarios, while advertising revenue is projected to grow by 13%, lower than previous expectations due to reduced advertising budgets [5] - The company has raised its full-year revenue guidance to 125 million USD, indicating further upside potential [5] Stone Pharmaceutical Group (石药集团) - In Q2 2025, the pharmaceutical business continued to face pressure, with revenue declining by 18% year-on-year, and product sales dropping by 25% after excluding licensing fees [6][7] - The management expects a sequential improvement in H2 2025, with revenue projected to grow by over 5% compared to H1 2025 and return to positive growth year-on-year [6] - The company announced an interim dividend of 0.14 HKD per share, with an expected full-year dividend of no less than 0.28 HKD per share [6] Jiumaojiu (九毛九) - Jiumaojiu's revenue in H1 2025 decreased by 10.1% year-on-year to 2.75 billion RMB, with a net profit decline of 16% to 60.69 million RMB due to same-store sales decline and store network adjustments [8][9] - The company is exploring new store models to drive same-store sales recovery, although the current network is still in a restructuring phase [9] - The management anticipates closing an additional 40-50 stores in H2 2025, indicating ongoing adjustments to the store network [9] Link REIT (领展房托) - Link REIT expects that the impact of potential interest rate cuts will outweigh rental adjustments, leading to a slight increase in target price to 49.80 HKD [10][11] - The company predicts that the recent decline in HIBOR/SORA/BBSY will help reduce financing costs, maintaining a buy rating [11] - The rental income from the mainland remains stable, with slight pressure on rental income from retail and office assets [12]

百利好特约智昇研究市场策略师鹏程认为，美联储已经开始褪去独立性的标签，这将大大损害美元的信用，对美元和美联储的伤害是长期性的。 技术面：黄金日线收小阳线，上升动能有走弱迹象。1小时周期形成双顶下破，短线若不能收复3361美元一线，则短期上涨结构可能被破坏，会下滑至3335 美元一线。 黄金小时图 原油方面： 隔夜油价出现小幅反弹，但力度和持续性一般，只能视为反弹，并未改变下行走势。短期内投资者可关注欧洲与伊朗的谈判，若谈判顺利，油价可能雪上加 霜。 伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃宣布，伊朗与英法德三国26日将在瑞士日内瓦就伊核问题等举行会谈。此次副外长级别的会谈是伊朗外长22日与英法德三国外长和 欧盟外交与安全政策高级代表通话的后续行动。会谈讨论解除制裁和核问题、联合国安理会第2231号决议及其未来走向。 前期美国对俄罗斯原油第三方买家提出制裁，可能威胁到了欧洲的原油进口安全，欧洲此举可能是为拓展原油进口渠道。若谈判顺利，短期内伊朗有提高产 能和出口量的潜能，伊朗剩余产能至少有40万桶/日。 黄金方面： 隔夜黄金以横盘调整为主，自鲍威尔全面转向鸽派后，黄金短期上涨动能走强，但也要谨防利多消息被消化耗尽的可能。 本次鲍 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump has led market participants to consider the potential consequences of this action [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Andrew Canobi, head of fixed income at Franklin Templeton Investments Australia, suggests that Trump's move to appoint Federal Reserve governors who favor a more accommodative stance or support for interest rate cuts could steepen the yield curve [1] - The pressure from Trump to lower interest rates may indirectly influence the short end of the yield curve, while the market's reaction could result in higher long-term yields [1]

Market Overview - Major indices collectively declined, with the Dow Jones down 0.77% at 45,282.47 points, S&P 500 down 0.43% at 6,439.32 points, and Nasdaq down 0.22% at 21,449.29 points [1] - Large tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Tesla up 1.94% and Nvidia up 1.02% following the launch of its new robot chip module Jetson AGX Thor priced at $3,499 [2] - Microsoft fell 0.59%, Apple down 0.26%, Google up 1.16%, Amazon down 0.39%, and Meta down 0.20% [3] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.11%, with Alibaba up 1.15%, JD.com up 0.35%, and Pinduoduo up 0.87%. However, NIO fell 3.94%, Xpeng down 2.86%, and Li Auto down 0.25% [4] Commodity Prices - International gold prices fluctuated, with COMEX gold futures down 0.25% at $3,409.90 per ounce. In contrast, WTI crude oil futures rose 1.79% to $64.80 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures increased by approximately 1.58% to $68.80 per barrel [5] Economic Insights - Fed Chair Powell indicated potential interest rate cuts in the coming months despite inflation risks, citing a significant slowdown in the job market [5][6] - The job market data showed a rare phenomenon of layoffs across 50% of industries, indicating a softening employment landscape [7] - Inflation remains a concern, with core CPI rising consistently from January to July, indicating upward pressure on prices [8] Retail Sector Performance - Retail giants Walmart and Target have begun to feel the impact of tariff costs, with Walmart considering price increases and Target lowering its revenue forecast [9] - Las Vegas visitor numbers have declined significantly, reflecting broader economic challenges, with a 15% drop in gaming revenue in July [9] Technology Sector Trends - The performance of the "Big Seven" tech companies showed signs of fatigue, with Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon experiencing declines, while the Russell 2000 index rose 3.27% [10] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is highly anticipated, as poor data could increase the likelihood of interest rate cuts [10]

上周五，现货黄金大涨1%，盘中一度创两周新高至3378.69美元，最终收报于3371.78美元。随着金价周五飙升，本周现货黄金价格收盘大涨35.77 美元，涨幅约1.1%。今日欧市盘中，黄金小幅下跌，目前在3363美元附近徘徊。 美联储重大变数！ 上周五，美股三大指数全线收涨，截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数大涨846.24点，涨幅为1.89%，创历史新高，纳斯达克指数涨1.88%，标普500指数涨 1.52%。 消息面上，美印关税谈判的前景不容乐观。 再过几天，美国向印度大幅加征的额外关税，即将正式生效。不过，印度外长8月23日强硬表态称，与美国的贸易谈判仍在继续，但印度有需要坚 守的底线。此前，有外媒报道称，美国贸易谈判代表团原定于8月25日至29日前往新德里的访问已经取消，这使得美国对印关税可能下调或推迟的 希望进一步破灭。 在美国关税压力加剧之际，印度总理莫迪日前宣布，将下调日常消费品的商品与服务税（GST），以提振印度国内需求。 不过，受关税打压，近期市场对印度大中型企业的预期收益下调，大量外资从印度股市撤出。美国银行本月发布的一项调查显示，约30%的受访 基金经理近期减持了印度股票，印度股市受青睐程度在亚 ...

Market Overview - As of August 25, US stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones down by 0.41% to 45443.24, the S&P 500 down by 0.15% to 6456.91, and the Nasdaq up by 0.1% to 21518.47 [1][2] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index increased by 1.22% to 8016.96, indicating a positive trend in Chinese tech stocks [2][3] Major Tech Companies - Among the major tech companies, Google (Alphabet) rose by 1.25% to 209.310, Nvidia increased by 0.81% to 179.432, and Apple saw a 0.58% rise to 229.080 [3] - However, Facebook (Meta) experienced a decline of 0.21% to 753.185, indicating mixed performance among the tech giants [3] Chinese Stocks Performance - Notable Chinese stocks such as NetEase and Alibaba saw significant gains, with NetEase up by 6.04% to 217.600 and Alibaba up by 1.86% to 125.230 [5][7] - Pinduoduo's stock showed volatility, initially surging over 10% before stabilizing with a 0.82% increase [7][9] Economic Indicators - Pinduoduo's Q2 revenue growth slowed to 7% year-on-year, totaling 104 billion yuan, while net profit fell by 4% to 30.75 billion yuan, marking a trend of declining growth [9] - The US economy faces inflation challenges, with the core CPI rising consistently from January to July, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [19] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at the possibility of interest rate cuts in the coming months, despite ongoing inflation risks [16][17] - Powell emphasized the need for action due to a softening job market, suggesting that the Fed may not rely solely on data for future policy decisions [17][18] Retail Sector Concerns - Major retailers like Walmart and Target are beginning to feel the impact of tariff costs, with Walmart considering price increases and Target lowering its revenue forecast [21] - The Las Vegas tourism sector has seen a decline in visitor numbers, reflecting broader economic concerns [21] Technology Sector Trends - The performance of the "Big Seven" tech companies shows signs of fatigue, with stock price changes indicating investor caution [22] - The upcoming US non-farm payroll report is anticipated to be a critical indicator for market sentiment and potential Fed actions [22]

报告导读： 本周鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上表态超预期转鸽，美国资产价格演绎降息 交易，美元走弱， 10 年期美债利率回落，美股反弹。我们认为 9 月美联储可能开启降 息，但是预防式基调和通胀影响下，速度不会太快，预计年内最多降息 2 次。欧央行方 面，通胀已不再是关注焦点， 9 月或按兵不动。 全球大类资产表现： 本周（ 2025.8.18-2025.8.22 ）， 全球大类资产价格中，主要经济体股市多数上涨。 其中，上证综指上涨 3.5% ，恒生指数上涨 0.3% ，标普 500 上涨 0.3% ，日经 225 指数下跌 1.7% ，发达市场股票指数上涨 0.4% ，优于新兴市场涨幅（ 0% ）。 大宗商品价格涨跌互现， 其中， IPE 布油期货上涨 2.5% ，标普 - 高盛商品指数上涨 2.1% ，伦敦金现上涨 1.1% ，南华商品指数下跌 0.4% 。 债市方 面， 10 年期美债收益率较前一周回落 7BP 至 4.26% 。美元指数较前一周下降 0.12% ，报收 97.72 ，日元升值 0.15% ，美元兑日元收 146.94 。 美国经济： 制造业景气度有所回升。 8 月美国 Markit 制 ...

上周五，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会上的讲话，给全球黄金投资者打了一针强心剂！他明确表 示 "通胀若持续降温，将考虑降息"，这番 "鸽声" 瞬间点燃市场热情，金价应声上涨近 1%，重返 1940 美元上方。 但奇怪的是，市场并未完全 "买账"。黄金涨势在 1950 美元关口前明显遇阻，多空双方陷入微妙拉锯。 为何投资者仍 "悬着一颗心"？ UNFX分析指出三大关键矛盾： 若全球衰退风险缓解（如中国经济刺激见效），黄金的 "避险光环" 可能褪色。 三、技术面关键位争夺 1950 美元是黄金多空分水岭：突破则打开 2000 美元空间，受阻则可能回踩 1900 支撑。 当前金价处于 "上下两难" 的三角整理末端，急需新催化剂打破平衡。 一、鸽派预期 VS 顽固通胀 鲍威尔虽松口降息可能，但强调 "通胀仍远高于目标"，暗示政策不会急转弯。 本周五美国 PCE 通胀数据若超预期，可能瞬间扑灭降息幻想，黄金将首当其冲。 二、美元走弱 VS 避险需求降温 美联储暂停加息虽压制美元，但欧洲经济疲软（尤其德国）反向支撑美元韧性。 UNFX 策略建议： 风险提示：谨防地缘冲突（如俄乌、台海）突发升级引发的波动陷阱。 黄金市场 ...

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略点评 策略点评 20250825 Jacksonhole 会议：更鸽的鲍威尔，更热的市 场？——港股&海外周观察 JacksonHole 会议基调偏"鸽"，暗示 9 月降息。我们认为鲍威尔在 Jackson Hole 会议上发表演讲主要有以下三点重点关注： 一是，暗示降息已不远。鲍威尔表示"风险平衡的变化可能要求调整政 策立场"，就业下行风险上升，关税对通胀的影响或是"一次性"的， 这意味着对美联储来说，现在就业是比通胀更大的风险，几乎证实了 9 月降息即将到来。 二是，修订货币政策框架，降息约束放松。鲍威尔调整新框架：（1）放 弃"平均通胀目标"，回归灵活的通胀目标制框架，删除有效利率下限 （ELB）相关措辞；（2）删除"充分就业目标是为了应对"缺口"的表 述。 三是，指出经济增长放缓。鲍威尔指出美国 2025 年经济相较于 2024 年 显著放缓。 短期来看，我们认为美股以震荡上行为主。一是，9 月降息大门已经打 开。从数据来看，除非 9 月议息会议前就业人数大幅增加超过 15 万人， 且通胀环比增速>0.4%，否则 9 月降息基本"板上钉钉"；从表态来看， 大多数美联储票委的 ...