1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For finished products, it is expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, and the price center of gravity continues to move downward. The market sentiment is pessimistic in the context of weak supply and demand, and this year's winter storage is sluggish with limited price support. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [2][3]. - For aluminum ingots, it is expected that the price will fluctuate within a short - term range. The downstream is at the stage of alternating between peak and off - peak seasons, and the inventory is still being depleted. Attention should be paid to the support of subsequent inventory performance on prices, as well as macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [2][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1成材 (Finished Products) - **Production Shutdown Impact**: In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel enterprises' shutdown and maintenance during the Spring Festival are mostly from mid - January, with resumption expected from the 11th to the 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills started to shut down on January 5, and most of the rest will shut down around mid - January. Some individual steel mills may shut down after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3]. - **Real Estate Transaction Data**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - **Market Situation**: The finished products continued to fluctuate downward yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity keeps moving down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [3]. 3.2铝锭 (Aluminum Ingots) - **Production Situation**: In April 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 2.6% year - on - year and decreased by 2.9% month - on - month. In May, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level. The second - batch capacity replacement project of an aluminum plant from Shandong to Yunnan is expected to start in the third quarter, and the first - batch project is expected to achieve output in May. Recently, some enterprises have carried out capacity maintenance, which has little impact on the supply side [3]. - **Demand Situation**: Before the festival, the start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 61.6% from the previous week and decreased by 2.8 percentage points year - on - year. Except for the aluminum cable industry, the start - up rates of other sectors have declined to varying degrees. The traditional peak season for aluminum downstream is coming to an end, and the seasonal decline in terminal demand and overseas trade frictions will put double pressure on the downstream start - up rate [3]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of May 6, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 636,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from the previous Monday [3]. - **Macro Situation**: The domestic macro - environment has a positive atmosphere, while overseas, Trump's policy attitude is changeable, and there are many uncertainties in the tariff war, which puts pressure on the market [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent tariff war has negatively impacted economic sentiment, leading to a decline in corporate expectations to historical lows [1] Economic Indicators - In April, the Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) recorded 50.4, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, marking the lowest level in three months [1] - The Caixin China Services PMI also fell by 1.2 percentage points to 50.7, the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2024 [1] - The overall Caixin China Composite PMI decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 51.1 in the same month [1]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 2025 年 05 月 06 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 重要点评 【浙商银行 梁凤洁/徐安妮/陈建宇/周源】银行 行业深度：Q1 财报揭示哪些经营线索？——20250504 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 06 日 浙商早知道 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 浙商早报 1 重要点评 1.1 【浙商银行 梁凤洁/徐安妮/陈建宇/周源】银行 行业深度：Q1 财报揭示哪些经营线索？—— 20250504 1、主要事件 25Q1 银行业绩披露 2、简要点评 业绩概览：25Q1 上市银行业绩符合预期。整体来看，25Q1 上市行营收利润增速环比承压，一方面是 LPR 降息滞后性影响，另一方面是债市调整对营收形成拖累。25Q1 上市银行营收、利润同比-1.7%、-1.2%，增速 较 24A 回落 1.8pc、3.5pc。背后驱动因素来看， 25Q1 息差对营收拖累边际改善，税收对利润贡献增强，成本 拖累改善；非息增长放缓拖累营收，减 ...

美国挑起的关税战，原本是其试图遏制中国崛起的一场"豪赌"，但结果却让美国自己搬起石头砸了自己的脚。 中国在这场贸易战中的表现，不仅让世界刮目相看，也让那些低估中国的美国人彻底改变了看法。 中国的真实实力，远超美国的想象，而这场关税战，也成了中美力量对比变化的一个重要转折点。 美国高估了自己的影响力，低估了中国的韧性。 美国以为通过加征关税，就能让中国经济"低头"，但结果却是自己陷入了供应链危机和通货膨胀的泥沼。 中国不仅没有被打垮，反而通过调整出口结构、开拓新市场等方式，成功化解了压力。 比如，中国加大了对东南亚、非洲和欧洲市场的出口力度，2024年1-7月，中国与东盟双边贸易额达5520亿美元，同比增长7.7%。 这说明，中国在全球经济中的地位，已经不是美国能够轻易撼动的了。 中国在多个领域的崛起速度，也超出了美国的预期。 从钢铁产量来看，中国的钢铁产量已经突破10亿吨，占据全球钢铁产量的半壁江山，比西方七个工业化国家钢铁产量的总和还要多，是美国钢铁产量的12倍 以上。 这不仅仅是数字上的胜利，更是中国工业化实力的体现。 当然，钢铁产量只是工业化的指标之一，不能完全代表中国的力量超越了美国，但这是一个重要的 ...

Group 1 - Taiwan plans to increase procurement from the U.S., including natural gas and oil, to address trade deficits, which is a key focus in upcoming tariff negotiations [1] - The push for energy independence and resilience in Taiwan is expected to lead to significant construction of natural gas receiving stations, potentially increasing carbon emissions [1] - The impact of the ongoing U.S.-China trade war is severe on Taiwan's traditional industries, with an estimated 100,000 workers affected [1] Group 2 - Past actions, such as selling TSMC and purchasing U.S. weapons and LNG, have not improved Taiwan's negotiating position with the U.S., indicating a miscalculation by Taiwan's leadership [2] - Since February, China has halted imports of U.S. LNG, with significant drops in volumes imported, reflecting the broader impact of tariffs on energy trade [2] - The U.S. energy sector, particularly shale gas, is facing challenges due to the loss of the Chinese market, with profit margins for Texas shale oil companies plummeting [5] Group 3 - China's response to the trade war has shifted to a more proactive stance, targeting service trade sectors for retaliation, indicating a strategic adjustment in its approach [7] - The diversification of China's energy imports, including a significant increase from Canada, highlights the changing dynamics in global energy supply chains [5]

Key Points - Temu has stopped direct shipments from China to the US due to the cancellation of the small package tax exemption, leading to increased import fees of 130% to 150% for US customers [4][6] - TikTok has reported significant revenue growth in Australia, with annual revenue reaching AUD 679 million (approximately USD 440 million), up from AUD 375 million (approximately USD 260 million) the previous year [7][9] - Didi has launched overseas ride-hailing services in 11 countries and 26 cities, enhancing its international presence [13][15] - Wangba Tea has appointed a former McDonald's executive to oversee its brand and business growth in the Asia-Pacific region [10][12] - East China Home's revenue has surpassed CNY 10 billion for the first time, achieving CNY 11.03 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 34.59% [16][18] - Sweet Lala plans to open over 200 new stores globally by 2025, expanding its presence in Southeast Asia, Europe, North America, and the Middle East [19] - Worth Buying aims to synchronize its consumer content and marketing services overseas, targeting five countries by the end of the year [21][24] - WeChat Pay has been integrated into Busan's subway system, allowing Chinese tourists to purchase electronic tickets easily [25][27] - Walmart has decided to absorb tariffs and resume imports from China, reversing its previous stance due to inventory pressures [29][31] - Many retailers have halted shipments to the US following the end of the small package tax exemption, impacting cross-border e-commerce [32][40] - FedEx has invested in Nimble to enhance its logistics automation capabilities [51][52] - MercadoLibre is considering relocating its US headquarters from Delaware to Texas to benefit from a more predictable legal environment [38][40] - Foodpanda has exited the Thai market after 13 years of operation due to declining market share [43][44]

Group 1 - The annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting highlighted the end of an era as Warren Buffett prepares for retirement, passing leadership to Greg Abel, indicating a strategic transition within the company [2] - Buffett's decision to retire is influenced by the passing of his long-time partner, Charlie Munger, suggesting a shift in personal and professional dynamics [2] - Berkshire Hathaway's cash reserves have reached a record high of $347 billion, providing ample resources for future investments under new leadership [2] Group 2 - Buffett criticized the trade war initiated by Trump, labeling it a strategic mistake that could alienate allies and provoke global discontent, emphasizing the importance of international trade [2] - The ongoing trade conflict has created a challenging environment for the U.S., with potential long-term economic repercussions as allies begin to protect their interests [3] - The U.S. economy's reliance on consumer spending and high leverage could face severe impacts from rising inflation, which may lead to a reversal of the current interest rate policies [4] Group 3 - Buffett warned that the current fiscal decision-making in the U.S. is systematically undermining the value of currency, a trend observed globally [4] - The reliance on debt and monetary expansion is reaching its limits, with potential consequences for the U.S. economy as it faces significant debt challenges [4] - The metaphor of cash and bonds as "melting ice cubes" illustrates the urgency of addressing currency devaluation and the risks associated with fixed-income investments in a deteriorating economic environment [4]

2025.05. 05 本文字数：2241，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 美国近期单方加征关税，尤其是对中国加征畸高关税，对全球经济造成严重冲击。为了应对外部冲击 影响加大等情况，不久前中共中央政治局会议对经济工作作出部署，其中包括用好用足更加积极的财 政政策。 "财政部门要深入贯彻落实中央经济工作会议精神和今年《政府工作报告》部署，聚焦高质量发展关 键领域、薄弱环节，加强财税政策支持和资金保障，精准施策、持续用力，充分释放财政政策效 能。"蓝佛安称。 根据上述文章，财政部门下一步深入实施财政政策发力点，主要在七大方面，即大力提振消费；积极 扩大有效投资；加快培育发展新质生产力；加强对企业的纾困支持；加大保障和改善民生力度；支持 城乡区域融合发展和防范化解重点领域风险。 除了落实好已有更加积极财政政策外，财政增量政策也颇受关注。 蓝佛安还在文中强调，为应对可能出现的冲击，财政始终留有后手。政府有较大举债空间。 "充足的储备工具，巨大的政策空间，特别是在实践中形成的财政宏观调控科学方法论，是我们做好 当前财政工作的信心和底气所在。"蓝佛安说。 为应对潜在冲击，今年全国两会期间中国推出了力度更大 ...

不过随着美国综合实力的下滑，加上好莱坞落入俗套的剧情，以及加上美国民主党的"政治正确"，以至 于美国好莱坞电影在全球的票房急剧下滑，对于美国电影产业存在的问题，美国共和党政府再次采取一 刀切的方式，宣布要对其他国家的电影加征100%的关税，从而推动美国电影产业的发展。烽火前站分 析认为，美国试图通过对付制造业的方式来推动美国电影产业的发展，美国共和党政府天真的认为限制 外国电影进入美国，就可以让美国的电影有了发展的机遇，实际上这是搬石头砸自己的脚。 对于美国加征进口电影100%的关税，显然其他国家也会对于美国电影加征100%的关税，这就会导致美 国好莱坞电影无法进入其他国家的市场，因此遭殃的是美国自己，等于是限制了美国电影在全球的推 广。实际上美国电影的影响力还是很大，美国可以通过全球市场获得相当多的利润，但是如今美国共和 如今的美国共和党政府已经颇有魔怔了的节奏，因为在发动对于全球关税战的时候，美国不断制造问 题，从而给美国自己加戏，如今美国又有了动作。根据美国媒体报道，美国总统在5月4日通过社交媒体 宣布，将会给在国外制作的电影加征100%的关税，为此立即引发了外界的关注。美国长期以来就通过 好莱坞电影宣 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights that the U.S. government has overestimated the impact of tariffs on China, as indicated by a corporate executive's statement that China has not made any calls to the U.S. [1] - The U.S. consumers are expected to feel the pain from tariff policies in the coming weeks, particularly affecting small businesses and low-income groups, with a distribution cycle of imported goods being approximately 8 weeks [3] - A collective lawsuit from 13 states against the Trump administration's tariffs indicates significant political and economic divisions within the U.S., with claims that tariffs have led to increased household expenses and reduced availability of goods [3] Group 2 - President Trump claims that his tariff measures will help reduce income taxes for individuals earning less than $200,000, although economists have expressed skepticism about this assertion [5] - There are signs of a shift in U.S. foreign policy towards China, with a reduction in the influence of hawkish elements within the government, suggesting a potential move from extreme pressure to a more pragmatic approach [6] - The ongoing tariff situation has resulted in significant negative consequences for the U.S., including high inflation, declining consumer confidence, and a fractured political landscape [8]