党的二十届四中全会通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（以下 简称《建议》），擘画了"十五五"时期我国经济社会发展的宏伟蓝图，反映了包括工人阶级在内的全体 人民的根本利益和长远利益。工会是党领导的工人阶级群众组织，肩负着组织动员广大职工群众为完成 党的中心任务而奋斗的重大责任。新征程上，各级工会要认真学习宣传贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神， 积极履职、锐意进取，奋力推动党中央重大决策部署在工会系统落实落地，为实现"十五五"宏伟蓝图贡 献工会力量。 着眼巩固团结奋斗的共同思想基础、党执政的阶级基础和群众基础，加强职工思想政治引领 围绕推动人的全面发展、全体人民共同富裕，用心用情履行工会维权服务基本职责 全体人民共同富裕是中国式现代化的本质特征。《建议》坚持以人民为中心的发展思想，在指导思想中 突出强调全体人民共同富裕迈出坚实步伐，这是指导"十五五"时期经济社会发展的一个总体性要求；围 绕加大保障和改善民生力度、扎实推进全体人民共同富裕，从促进高质量充分就业、完善收入分配制 度、健全社会保障体系、加快建设健康中国、促进人口高质量发展、稳步推进基本公共服务均等化等方 面作出战略部署。工人阶 ...

报告正文 事件： 12月8日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作，审议《中国共产党领导全面依法 治国工作条例》。 政治局会议在基调上有何亮点？统筹经济工作和经贸斗争、重视政策效果和经济增长 会议重提2025年4月政治局会议首提的"更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争"，凸显对外部环境不确定性的 关注与内部发展稳定性的重视。 这一表述在2024年12月会议"更好统筹发展和安全"基础上深化延伸，既体现 对内外双重任务的统筹考量，也与"十五五"规划建议的形势判断相契合，精准呼应"以国内循环的稳定性对冲 国际循环的不确定性"的核心要求。 会议以"提质增效"替代"以进促稳"，凸显对政策质量、效率与可持续性的平衡考量。 会议延续提出"继续实施 更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策"，更强调"发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应"。2026年财政政策 或将保持扩张取向并优化支出结构。中性情景预期赤字率维持在4%左右，特别国债与新增专项债规模较2025 年小幅扩张；货币政策更注重流动性呵护，结构上以精准支持为核心，预计央行可能实施1次幅度约10BP的降 息。 会议提出"推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长"，锚定 ...

新华社北京12月8日电 题：坚定信心真抓实干 奋力实现"十五五"良好开局——从中央政治局会议看 2026年经济工作方向 新华社记者 12月8日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。 会议总结分析今年经济工作，对明年经济工作作出一系列重要部署，必将进一步坚定发展信心、凝 聚发展共识，有效应对各种冲击挑战，巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头，为实现"十五五"良好开局打牢基 础。 今年经济社会发展主要目标将顺利实现 2025年是"十四五"规划收官之年，在中国式现代化进程中具有重要意义。 会议总结一年来经济工作，作出重要判断：以习近平同志为核心的党中央团结带领全党全国各族人 民迎难而上、奋力拼搏，统筹国内国际两个大局，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，经济社会发展主要目 标将顺利实现。 "今年以来，面对外部压力加大和内部困难较多的复杂局面，党中央科学决策，各地区各部门狠抓 落实，前三季度我国国内生产总值同比增长5.2%，在全球主要经济体中保持前列，继续展现强大韧性 和活力。"国家发展改革委经济研究所副所长郭丽岩说。 会议指出，我国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进，新质生产力稳步发展，改革开放迈出新步伐，重点 领域风险化解取 ...

坚定信心真抓实干 奋力实现"十五五"良好开局——从中央政治局会议看2026年经济工作方向 新华社记者 12月8日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。 会议总结分析今年经济工作，对明年经济工作作出一系列重要部署，必将进一步坚定发展信心、凝聚发 展共识，有效应对各种冲击挑战，巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头，为实现"十五五"良好开局打牢基础。 今年经济社会发展主要目标将顺利实现 会议认为，过去5年，我们有效应对各种冲击挑战，我国经济、科技、国防等硬实力和文化、制度、外 交等软实力明显提升，"十四五"即将圆满收官，第二个百年奋斗目标新征程实现良好开局。 "'十四五'时期我国经济社会发展取得新的重要成就，为'十五五'奠定了更坚实的基础，积攒了更充足的 底气。坚定信心、乘势而进，一定能推动中国式现代化建设不断取得新成就。"郭丽岩说。 明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效 2025年是"十四五"规划收官之年，在中国式现代化进程中具有重要意义。 会议总结一年来经济工作，作出重要判断：以习近平同志为核心的党中央团结带领全党全国各族人民迎 难而上、奋力拼搏，统筹国内国际两个大局，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，经济社会发 ...

Economic Growth Projections - The economic growth target for 2026 is set at around 5%, with an expected actual growth rate of approximately 4.9%[3] - Nominal GDP growth is projected to rise to about 4.2%[3] - Manufacturing investment growth is anticipated to reach around 5.2%, driven by high-end and intelligent upgrades[3] Investment and Infrastructure - Broad infrastructure investment growth is expected to be around 6%, supported by major projects under the "14th Five-Year Plan"[3] - Real estate investment decline is projected to narrow to approximately -10% due to improved supply-demand dynamics[3] Consumption and Prices - Consumer spending is expected to increase, with retail sales growth projected at around 5%[3] - CPI is forecasted to recover moderately to 0.5%, while PPI is expected to remain between -1% and 0%[3] Policy and Fiscal Measures - The budget deficit ratio may exceed 4%, with new special bond limits around 4.5 trillion yuan[3] - Monetary policy is expected to remain "moderately loose," with potential small rate cuts of about 25 basis points and interest rate reductions of approximately 10 basis points[3] Global Economic Context - The U.S. job market is cooling, and inflation pressures are manageable, but uncertainties remain regarding future interest rate paths[3] - Emerging markets may see marginal economic slowdown in 2026, with internal performance continuing to diverge[3] Asset Allocation Strategies - Overweight positions are recommended in U.S. equities and gold, benefiting from liquidity easing and fiscal expansion[3] - Underweight positions in oil are suggested due to high inventory levels and weak demand[3] Risks - Risks include lower-than-expected domestic economic growth, geopolitical tensions, and potential overseas recession exceeding expectations[3]

Group 1 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes a pragmatic development approach, focusing on quality growth and domestic circulation while addressing current economic challenges [1][2] - The plan sets a growth target of around 5% for the period, aiming for per capita GDP to reach the level of moderately developed countries by 2035 [2][3] - It highlights the importance of balancing development and security, asserting that development is foundational for safety [2] Group 2 - The macroeconomic policy is shifting towards a more proactive stance, with an emphasis on counter-cyclical measures to stabilize growth, employment, and expectations [3] - The plan prioritizes the integration of technology and industry, aiming to build a modern industrial system with a focus on intelligent, green, and integrated development [4][5] - It identifies four key areas for promoting integration: artificial intelligence, industrial internet, new growth engines, and future industries [4] Group 3 - The plan stresses the need to boost domestic demand, particularly in service consumption, as a strategic foundation for economic growth [6][7] - It outlines systematic measures to enhance consumer capacity and expand service consumption through policy support and market reforms [7][8] - The focus on service consumption is crucial, as it currently lags behind goods consumption in GDP contribution [8] Group 4 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to promote comprehensive human development and improve social welfare, establishing a virtuous cycle between economic growth and social equity [9][10] - It includes specific targets for employment, income growth, and social security, emphasizing the importance of investing in human capital [9] - Policies will address key life cycle points, ensuring support for various demographics, including flexible workers and the elderly [10] Group 5 - The plan addresses urban-rural integration, focusing on reforms in the household registration system and land use to facilitate urbanization [11][12] - It aims to enhance public services for migrant populations and streamline land policies to support rural development [12] Group 6 - The establishment of a unified national market is seen as essential for enhancing domestic circulation, with measures to eliminate local protectionism and promote fair competition [13][14] - The plan outlines four policy focus areas: regulating government behavior, improving market order, streamlining logistics, and optimizing supporting systems [13] Group 7 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" adjusts the foreign trade strategy to emphasize autonomy, balance, and diversification in response to uncertainties in international relations [15][16] - It aims to shift from a focus on trade surpluses to promoting balanced trade, with an emphasis on expanding imports [15] Group 8 - The plan sets ambitious goals for green transformation, including a dual control system for carbon emissions to achieve peak carbon emissions by 2030 [17][18] - It emphasizes the need for a comprehensive approach to carbon management and green development, integrating market mechanisms to minimize economic disruption [18] Group 9 - Fiscal policy is framed to balance proactivity with sustainability, focusing on optimizing expenditure and reforming the revenue system [19] - The plan aims to enhance fiscal sustainability while addressing local government debt issues through structural reforms [19] Group 10 - The financial development strategy aims to build a financial powerhouse, focusing on optimizing financial structures, enhancing regulation, and expanding openness [20][21] - Key tasks include promoting various types of finance, improving direct financing, and strengthening risk management systems [20]

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 12 08 年 月 日 宏观点评 通稿短、增量多—政治局会议 5 大信号 事件：12 月 8 日，政治局会议召开，分析研究 2026 年经济工作。 核心观点：12 月政治局会议历来是"吹风会"，篇幅一般有限、没提到的 不代表不重要、不宜过分解读，即将召开的中央经济工作会议将作详细部 署。总体看，本次会议信息量不少，尤其是：1）较为少见的盘中发布通 稿，旨在提振信心、进一步凸显了稳股市的重要性；2）总定调偏积极、偏 扩张、偏刺激，包括实现"十五五"良好开局是硬要求，延续"四稳"，延 续"更加积极有为的宏观政策"，延续"更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的 货币政策"，首提"发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应"，首提"加大逆周 期和跨周期调节力度"等；3）大原则上，"扩大内需"与"优化供给"并 重，"做优增量"与"盘活存量"并重，延续"两大更好统筹"（国内经济 工作 VS 国际经贸斗争，发展 VS 安全）；4）重点任务上，相比于"十五 五"规划建议稿，扩内需重回首位（突出内需主导），科技+产业次序仍靠 前（新动能从"加快培育"变为"加紧培育"），双碳移至民生前 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the "14th Five-Year Plan" proposals from various provinces in China, focusing on the strategic directions and pathways for manufacturing development from 2026 to 2030 [1][10]. Group 1: Traditional Industrial Base Transformation - Provinces like Liaoning and Heilongjiang emphasize "transformation" and "upgrade" during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with Liaoning planning to implement advanced manufacturing clusters and a "2211" industrial system [2][11]. - Heilongjiang aims to integrate traditional industries with emerging strategic sectors [2][11]. Group 2: Accelerating New Industry Cultivation - Provinces such as Guizhou, Shaanxi, and Henan focus on cultivating new industries to achieve a "leapfrog" development [3][12]. - Guizhou aims to optimize its economic structure by enhancing industrial contributions and developing six key industry clusters, including advanced equipment manufacturing and digital economy [3][12]. - Shaanxi plans to enhance manufacturing quality and efficiency, focusing on advanced equipment manufacturing and smart manufacturing [3][12]. - Henan prioritizes high-quality development of the real economy and aims to build a modern industrial system with a focus on advanced manufacturing [4][13]. Group 3: Coastal Provinces' Manufacturing Upgrade - Coastal provinces like Fujian and Guangdong leverage their strong manufacturing foundations to focus on the real economy [5][14]. - Fujian emphasizes smart, green, and integrated development in its manufacturing sector, aiming for a modern industrial system supported by advanced manufacturing [5][14]. - Guangdong's plan outlines a clear path for manufacturing development, emphasizing the importance of the real economy and advanced manufacturing [5][14]. Group 4: Integration of Local Resource Advantages - Provinces such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Hebei focus on converting local resource advantages into industrial strengths [7][15]. - Ningxia plans to cultivate new industrial clusters in modern chemicals and clean energy while upgrading traditional industries [7][15]. - Inner Mongolia aims to expand the application of "new energy + industry" by leveraging its energy resources [7][15]. - Hebei innovatively promotes "shared manufacturing" to enhance production efficiency across its industrial clusters [7][15]. Conclusion - Despite varying development focuses, provinces exhibit a high degree of convergence in their paths toward high-quality manufacturing development, aiming to create a resilient and competitive national manufacturing network [8][16].

全面布局'十五五' 2025 年 12 月政治局会议学习体会 中共中央政治局 12 月 8 日召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作。 宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 12 月 8 日 相关研究报告 《宏观和大类资产配置周报》20251207 《策略周报》20251207 《债市测试'平衡边界'》20251207 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：张晓娇 xiaojiao.zhang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300514010002 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 政治局会议表示，2025 年'经济社会发展主要目标将顺利实现'，以及 ''十四五'即将圆满收官'。我们认为 2025 年实际 GDP 增速大概率 能够完成 5%的年初设定目标。 2026 年，'更加积极有为的宏观政策'将延续。 从工作思路和政策措施看： 一是'增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性'，与 2024 年 12 月政治局会议措 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes a stable yet progressive approach to economic work, focusing on quality and efficiency improvements while implementing proactive macro policies [2][3][21] - The meeting highlighted the importance of a multi-dimensional policy system that covers both supply and demand, aiming for a transformation in economic growth dynamics through domestic demand and innovation [14][18] - The report outlines the significance of institutionalizing the leadership of the Communist Party in the rule of law, enhancing the governance system and capacity modernization [18][21] Group 2 - The report suggests that the economic work for the upcoming year will adhere to the principle of "seeking progress while maintaining stability," with a focus on quality enhancement and efficiency [3][21] - It emphasizes the need for a coordinated policy approach that integrates fiscal, monetary, industrial, and technological policies to effectively support the real economy [13][14] - The report identifies key areas for future investment opportunities, including domestic demand-driven sectors, innovation-driven industries, and the financial sector [22]